1. I NTRODUCTION

The City of Orinda (City) prepared this Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Report (Vulnerability Assessment) in conformance with State of California requirements to assess and address the City’s climate change vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and resilience as part of the General Plan Safety Element Update. The goal of this requirement is to enable the City to prepare for, respond to, withstand, and recover from disruptions created or caused by climate change. The Vulnerability Assessment acts as a foundation for preparation of adaptation and resilience policies for inclusion in the General Plan Safety Element by identifying a set of priority vulnerabilities in Orinda. This report presents the regulatory framework and method for preparing a Vulnerability Assessment, the climate change hazards affecting Orinda’s populations and assets, a summary of the Vulnerability Assessment results, and implications for the Safety Element Update.

1.1 Community Profile

Orinda is a low-density, predominately residential community in the hills and woodlands of the East Bay region.

The City of Orinda is in the western portion of Contra Costa County, situated in the San Francisco Bay Area. Orinda is bordered by the Briones Reservoir to the north, San Pablo Reservoir to the northwest, Oakland Hills to the west, the City of Lafayette to the east, and the Town of Moraga to the south. The City of Orinda covers approximately 12.7 square miles The topography in Orinda varies from low-lying valleys to rolling hills. The crests of the hills range in elevation from 1,000 to 1,700 feet. Orinda is a low-density, primarily residential community characterized by hilly oak woodlands and multiple creek tributaries that feed San Pablo Creek. The city is bisected by State Route (SR-) 24 and the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) railway, with the Theatre District commercial area and surrounding neighborhoods to the south and the Village commercial area and surrounding neighborhoods to the north.

Existing land uses in the city consist of a variety of primarily single-family residential, the downtown area (consisting of commercial, office, institutional, and multifamily residential), open space, and utility land holdings (East Bay Municipal Utility District and Pacific Gas and Electric Company). The city is also crisscrossed by several high-voltage utility line alignments due to the location in the hills along the SR-24 corridor. Orinda is a nearly built-out residential community with a compact downtown on both sides of SR-24 and large undeveloped watershed and open space lands north and west of the city

According to the 2023 City of Orinda Draft Housing Element Sixth Cycle: 2021-2029, Orinda is home to 19,078 residents (approximately 10 percent higher than in 2010) and supports 5,495 jobs. 1 Major economic sectors in Orinda include education, finance and insurance, healthcare and social assistance, and professional, scientific, and technical services. The Orinda

The median age of residents in Orinda is 48.7 years. Nearly one-quarter of Orinda residents are 65 years or older.

Union School District is the largest employer in the city with about 335 employees. 2 The Orinda Police Department, operated by the Sheriff’s Department under contract, provides law enforcement services and the Moraga-Orinda Fire District (MOFD) provides fire protection services to Orinda, Moraga, and the surrounding unincorporated areas. The Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) provide energy service to the community.

Approximately 93 percent of Orinda households own their home, compared to 55 percent of California households.

In 2019, the median age of all people in Orinda was 48.7, compared to a median age of 46.1 in 2010. In general, the population of Orinda is getting older. According to the 2016-2020 American Community Survey (ACS), approximately 23 percent of the population (4,449 persons) are senior residents (65 years or older), and approximately 22 percent of senior citizens live alone. Approximately 72 percent of Orinda residents identify as non-Hispanic White and 16 percent of residents identify as Asian. Median household income in Orinda is approximately $231,000, although approximately 400 households report annual income of less than $25,000. Approximately 93 percent of Orinda households own their home. Linguistically isolated populations primarily include those that speak Chinese (Mandarin or Cantonese), Persian, and Spanish. 3

Orinda has a Mediterranean climate, with moderate year-round temperatures. On average, annual high temperatures in Orinda range from 58 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) in January to 78°F in August. Low temperatures range from 42°F in January to 56°F in August. 4 Hot and dry Diablo winds occur in the fall and spring. Winter rains fall from November to April. The city receives an average of approximately 25 inches of precipitation annually. 5 Most precipitation falls during the winter months with rare occurrences of summer storms. Winds often come from the west, with the exception of the Diablo winds, which usually come from the northeast.

Orinda’s primary transportation access is from SR-24 SR-24 connects Orinda to SR-13, Interstate (I)880, I-580, Oakland, and Alameda County to the west, and Lafayette and I-680 to the east. Other major roadways include Camino Pablo and Moraga Way. County Connection provides local bus transit options, and BART provides regional rail transit services. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, approximately 57 percent of Orinda’s workforce drove alone to work and mean travel time to work was approximately 36 minutes. 6

1.2 Climate Adaptation Regulatory Framework

In 2015, the state adopted Senate Bill (SB) 379, amending Section 65302(g) of the California Government Code to require the Safety Element of the General Plan to include more information about wildfire hazards, flooding risks, and other short-term and long-term threats posed by climate change. SB 379 is the foundation for adaptation and resiliency in General Plan Safety Elements because it requires local governments to conduct vulnerability assessments as part of their longrange public safety planning efforts and to prepare adaptation and resilience goals, policies, and implementation measures that respond to the findings of the Vulnerability Assessment and protect against harm caused by climate change.

Other important updates to California Government Code Section 65302(g) related to safety elements, climate change, and resiliency and addressed in the City’s General Plan Update include SB 1241, SB 1035, SB 99, Assembly Bill (AB) 2140, and AB 747/1409.

• SB 1241 adds Section 65302(g)(3) to the California Government Code, requiring jurisdictions in a state responsibility area or very high fire hazard severity zone (FHSZ) to provide background; historical context; and goals, policies, and implementation measures to address wildfire risks in a community.

• SB 1035, which establishes Section 65302(g)(6) of the California Government Code, builds on previous legislation and requires local governments to review and update as needed their Safety Element during an update to their Housing Element or Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) (or no less than every eight years). Any revisions should include updated information related to flood hazards, fire hazards, and climate adaptation and resilience.

• AB 2140 adds Sections 8685.9 and 65302.6 of the California Government Code, enabling cities and counties to adopt an LHMP into its Safety Element.

• SB 99 establishes Section 65302(g)(5) of the California Government Code and requires jurisdictions to review and update the Safety Element to include information identifying residential developments in hazard areas that do not have at least two emergency evacuation routes.

• AB 747 adds Section 65302.15 to the California Government Code (amended by AB 1409), requiring local governments to identify the capacity, safety, and viability of evacuation routes and locations in the Safety Element or LHMP. While the City is not yet required to undertake an AB 747 analysis, it has elected to do so to ensure a more robust and comprehensive Safety Element update.

The update to the Safety Element, including this Vulnerability Assessment, will enable the City of Orinda to meet the State’s requirements.

The California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services prepared a guidance document, the California Adaptation Planning Guide (APG) to assist communities in addressing climate adaptation and resilience and complying with Section 65302(g) of the California Government Code. The APG presents a step-by-step process for gathering the best-available climate change science, completing a climate change Vulnerability Assessment, creating adaptation strategies, and integrating those strategies into General Plans and other policy documents. The City’s Vulnerability Assessment is consistent with the guidance and recommended methods provided in the APG.