HOCHUL VS. ZELDIN

By Camille Rivera

RECENT POLLS have shown a tightening race for governor of New York, shocking political pundits and providing a surge of energy to Republican voters with over a week to go before the election.

But for those of us who have worked in politics and campaigns for a long time, a bounce in Republican polling was to be expected. Races almost always tighten right before Election Day, and it was always unrealistic to expect Democrats to win by similar margins at the height of then-President Donald Trump’s daily displays of craven corruption and incompetence. In any case, the fact remains that every single poll not paid for by the Republican nominee or his allies has shown Gov. Kathy Hochul winning the election – even in the face of millions spent on racist, fear-mongering attack ads from far-right dark money groups. New York has an inherently Democratic voting bloc: In a state where there are 2.3 enrolled Democrats for every Republican, there is almost no viable path to victory for Zeldin and the far right.

But looking beyond the numbers, Hochul’s résumé gives her a clear edge in this race: She has demonstrated an ability to work across different constituencies and has a proven track record on key issues compared to her extremist opponent.

Hochul took on the job of governor amid her predecessor’s scandal – and in the middle of a pandemic. In her first term, she faced rising costs and inflation, continuous attacks from the far right on our democracy and a tragic mass shooting in her hometown. In the face of these challenges, Hochul had the opportunity to show New York what her governing style would be – and it carried none of the bombast, arrogance and self-serving attitude of the previous administration. Hochul was prepared to do the work, and do it quietly. And an electorate wary of showmen in office paid her back in kind, choosing her as the Democratic nominee by an overwhelming majority.

Now, her job is to unite the party and continue the retail politics that she was known for as lieutenant governor. Her path to victory is clear, should she choose to take it – and that means building a coalition that spans Latino voters being courted by Zeldin, progressives disenchanted after primary and voters who refuse to be treated as a monolith. That also means standing firm on issues that appeal to the entirety of the Democratic tent, from passing a universal fair wage for tipped service workers to expanding health care access across the state.

If she does this, it won’t matter what attacks Zeldin lobs her way. She can win, and she already has a record to stand on that will help her.

In her first term, she signed nation-leading legislation to protect patients’ rights and empower reproductive health care providers in anticipation of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion. Hochul built a coalition of labor and business interests to secure the nation’s largest chip manufacturing facility outside Syracuse, which is projected to create 50,000 jobs.

Hochul has also made protecting New Yorkers from the scourge of gun violence a top priority, working with communities most affected by gun violence to pass landmark legislation to immediately strengthen the state’s gun laws and close the critical loopholes that shooters in Buffalo and Uvalde, Texas, exploited.

In the face of sustained threats to our democracy and civil rights, as well as high gas prices and the effects of inflation, voters are looking for stable, steady leadership. Zeldin is not that candidate, and no matter how much the polls have tightened, the fact that he is still several points behind Hochul proves it.

Voters in New York have rejected the conspiracy that Trump won the 2020 election, and the violent insurrection on our U.S. Capitol that followed; Zeldin has promoted these lies, continued to back Trump and rejected efforts in Congress to investigate the insurrection that led to as many as eight deaths.

As Republicans threaten to institute a nationwide abortion ban, Zeldin also cannot be trusted to protect our rights. In Congress, Zeldin voted to ban abortion without an exception for protecting the mother’s health and to criminally penalize doctors who perform abortions.

In these challenging times, the differences between Hochul’s competent, steady leadership and Zeldin’s duplicitous, self-serving political opportunism could not be starker. I’m confident New Yorkers will deliver for Hochul. The choice is just that clear. ■

A DEMONSTRATED TRACK RECORD OF SUCCESS

New Yorkers should vote for Hochul because of her triumphs on key issues.

By Joseph Borelli

FALL IS THE season of armchair quarterbacking America’s two favorite sports: football and politics. But if you’re handicapping this year’s governor’s race, it’s wise to start at the bottom.

In elections, the floor is more significant than the ceiling. And this year, the floor bodes well for a GOP win. Although Gov. Kathy Hochul has yet to be elected to a full term, the previous two races give us a solid foundation in determining a starting point for Republican challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin.

By all accounts, 2018 was a banner year for Democrats nationally, breaking records in blue states like ours. ThenGov. Andrew Cuomo received more votes than any New York governor in history. Not only was Cuomo breezing through a popular period of his tenure, but there was also another New Yorker on the ballot who drove statewide turnout to its highest point, by far, in generations: Donald Trump. More than 2.2 million of those votes went to GOP gubernatorial candidate Marc Molinaro, more than Cuomo received in 2014, though it only amounted to 36% of the total.

I know, this doesn’t sound promising so far, but bear with me.

In 2014, a low turnout year, Republican Rob Astorino garnered just over 40% of the vote. In every established poll leading up to Election Day, Cuomo never dropped below 52%, while Astorino never got higher than 34%. That means Astorino got a 6- or 7-point bump between the fall polling and Election Day.

This year, Hochul has been barely treading water at or barely above 50% in the polls, while Zeldin did not poll lower than 41% in October. A recent Marist College poll also revealed a wide enthusiasm gap between the candidates, while the Siena College and NewsChannel 13-SurveyUSA polls clearly showed the GOP has momentum.

In 2018, with record turnout by motivated Democratic voters, it was Cuomo who saw the big fourth-quarter swing. Is anyone suggesting voters are eager to pull the lever for Democrats this year? Absolutely not. That’s why the 46% that backed Zeldin in a Quinnipiac University survey is probably his real floor.

We also should not forget what happened the last time a Cuomo won three straight elections. Mario Cuomo was up about 4 percentage points in the polls during the final week of the campaign for his fourth term as governor in 1994. He lost to George Pataki by 3 points.

Now, perhaps you’re saying to yourself, “Sure, but Hochul ain’t no Cuomo.” That’s where we certainly all agree.

For starters, Andrew Cuomo was an established name, had incredible political acumen and is from the part of the state with the most voters. Although I disagreed with his politics and genuinely disliked him, had he been the candidate this year, he would be rattling off a long list of chits and conquests.

Hochul, on the other hand, has the bearing of a sophomore not quite ready for the varsity team. Polling on what New Yorkers are most concerned about has been incredibly consistent: Crime and the economy. Yet, while Zeldin has been effectively hitting the governor and her Democratic colleagues on these issues with almost daily press conferences, Hochul has floundered to keep the conversation focused on anything but what little she’s done to address them. Her campaign message has effectively consisted of: “Abortion!” Cut a ribbon. “Orange man bad!” Repeat.

The drop-off from Cuomo to Hochul is steep. According to comparable October polls from Marist, Hochul’s favorability is underwater by 19 points with independents, while Cuomo’s favorability was 46% to 42% unfavorable in October 2014. In comparable Siena College polls from October 2014 and October 2022 of key Democratic constituencies, she has registered 6 points lower with Black voters than Cuomo, 6 points lower with union households, 13 points lower with women and a whopping 19 points lower with New York City voters overall.

In addition to her shortcomings in New York City, Hochul is also facing serious national headwinds, far worse than what Cuomo faced in 2014.

You don’t have to believe my analysis of the race, but surely you must have noticed the Hochul campaign has the same take. If your campaign has to do a complete 180 as you hemorrhage votes in the final two weeks before an election, you are losing.

You don’t need be James Carville or Karl Rove to understand that. ■

GET READY FOR ZELDIN TO OVERPERFORM

The math is primed for an Election Day bump, and that should worry Democrats.

Joseph Borelli is the minority leader of the New York City Council.