THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION by Civic Exchange

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME (POP)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: 1st Survey 【All constituencies in Hong Kong】

SPONSORED BY CIVIC EXCHANGE

SURVEY REPORT

Compiled by Chung Ting-Yiu Robert, Pang Ka-Lai Karie and Lam Mo-Chun Calvin

MAY 2004

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page

SURVEY REPORT

1-10

Preamble

Research Design

Key Findings

In-depth and Comparative Analyses

Conclusion

APPENDICES Appendix 1: Demographic Profile of Respondents Appendix 2: Frequency Tables Appendix 3: Questionnaire

Survey Report

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME (POP) CIVIC EXCHANGE JOINTLY CONDUCT

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election：1st Survey 【All constituencies in Hong Kong】 SURVEY REPORT Research Team Members Project Director Project Manager Research Executive Data Analyst Copy Editor

：：：：：

CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert PANG Ka-Lai Karie LAM Mo-Chun Calvin CHOW Kwong-Pok Cliff CHUNG Sin-Yan Yennice

MAY 2004 CONTACT INFORMATION Date of survey

： 18-20 May 2004

Survey method Target population

： Telephone survey with interviewers ： Cantonese-speaking population of Hong Kong aged 18 or above ： Standard POP telephone sampling method was used. Telephone numbers were

Sampling method

Weighting method

Sample size Response rate Std. sampling error

selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one subject had been available, the one who had his/her birthday next was selected. ： The data reported have been adjusted according to the age and gender distributions of the Hong Kong population as reported in the 2001 Population Census. ： 1,039 successful cases ： 62.3% ： Less than 1.6%

< Everything in this publication is the work of individual researchers, and does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert is responsible for the work of the Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong.>

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Survey Report

Preamble

1.1

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) was established in June 1991 to collect and study public opinion on topics that could be of interest to academics, journalists, policy-makers, and the general public. POP was at first under the Social Sciences Research Centre, a unit under the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Hong Kong, and was transferred to the Journalism and Media Studies Centre in the University of Hong Kong in May 2000. In January 2002, it was transferred back to the Faculty of Social Sciences in the University of Hong Kong. Since its establishment, POP has been conducting opinion researches on various social and political issues and providing quality survey services to a wide range of organizations provided that they agreed to publicizing the findings to the general public, as well as allowing the research team to design and conduct the research independently, and to reserve the right to release the findings for public consumption.

1.2

In May 2004, Civic Exchange commissioned the POP Team to conduct a series of opinion surveys on the 2004 Legislative Council direct election. This survey was the first one in the row, with four main areas of investigation as follows: i. ii. iii. iv.

1.3

Hong Kong people’s priorities and party identification; Hong Kong people’s knowledge of the election system; Hong Kong electors’ voting behaviour and propensity to vote; Hong Kong people’s political inclination and participation in political activities.

The questionnaire was designed in consultation with the client, but the POP Team was fully responsible for designing and conducting this study, without any interference from the client.

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKU POP

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Survey Report

Research Method

2.1

This was a random telephone survey conducted by telephone interviewers under close supervision. To minimize sampling bias, telephone numbers were first drawn randomly from the residential telephone directories as "seed numbers", from which another set of numbers was generated using the "plus/minus one/two" method, in order to capture the unlisted numbers. Duplicated numbers were then filtered, and the remaining numbers were mixed in random order to produce the final telephone sample.

2.2

The target population of this survey was Cantonese-speaking population of Hong Kong aged 18 or above. When telephone contact was successfully established with a target household, one person aged 18 or above was selected. If more than one subject had been available, selection was made using the "next birthday rule" which selected the person who had his/her birthday next from all those present.

2.3

Telephone interviews were conducted during the period of 18-20 May 2004. A total of 1,039 Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above were successfully interviewed. The overall response rate of this survey was 62.3% (Table 1 in Appendix II), and the standard sampling error for percentages based on this sample was less than 1.6 percentage points. In other words, the sampling error for all percentages was less than plus/minus 3 percentage points at 95% confidence level.

2.4

As shown in Table 2, among the 8,015 telephone numbers sampled for the survey, 2,508 were confirmed to be ineligible, among them 350 were fax or data lines, 1,473 were invalid telephone numbers, 35 were call-forwarding numbers, while another 399 were non-residential numbers. Besides, 157 of them were invalidated due to special technological reasons, while 94 cases were voided because target respondents were unavailable at the numbers provided.

2.5

Meanwhile, a total of 2,944 telephone numbers were invalidated before the research team could confirm their eligibility. Among them 265 were busy lines and 1,646 were no-answer calls after making a maximum of 5 timesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; recalls. Forty-one cases were diverted to answering devices while another 226 were blocked. Moreover, 184 cases were treated as

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKU POP

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Survey Report

unsuccessful because of language problems, while 567 interviews were terminated before the screening question. Fifteen cases were voided for other problems.

2.6

On the other hand, 1,524 cases failed to complete the interview. Among them 3 were rejected at the household level, another 6 rejected the interview immediately after their eligibility was confirmed, 1,444 were unfinished cases with appointment dates beyond the end of fieldwork period. Besides, 53 cases were incomplete due to unexpected termination of interviews, 18 were classified as miscellaneous due to other non-contact problems, and the remaining 1,039 were successful cases (Table 2 in Appendix II).

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKU POP

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Survey Report

Key Findings （Please refer to Appendix II for cross-reference of the tables cited.）

3.1

Hong Kong People’s Priorities and Party Identification

3.1.1

As shown in Table 3, more than half of the respondents (52%) thought the would-be Legislative Councillors returned in the upcoming election should tackle economy-related problems first, while 21% said the Councillors should treat the labor and employment issues as their first priority. Summing up, as high as 73% of respondents were most concerned with the economic situation in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, 9% considered “constitutional/democratic development” to be the most pressing issue to be handled by the Legislative Councillors returned in September (Table 3).

3.1.2

The survey also found that, for both livelihood and political issues, Democratic Party (DP) was named as the party that appealed to most respondents most (livelihood issues: 20%; political issues: 24%), followed by Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB, 9% and 9%) and Liberal Party (LP, 8% and 6%). On the other hand, quite a number of respondents said no political party appealed to them (31% and 26%). Nearly 30% opted for “don’t know” (29% and 30%, Tables 4 & 5).

3.2

Hong Kong People’s Knowledge of the Election System

3.2.1

As regards people’s knowledge of the system used in the geographical constituency direct election this September (namely, proportional representation system, or “party-list” system), this survey revealed that 68% of the respondents admitted that they did not know, as contrast to 7% who claimed they knew (Table 6).

3.2.2

Despite this low knowledge level, when asked whether the proportional representation system was suitable for Hong Kong, 27% gave an affirmative answer, 23% said the opposite, as high as half (50%) failed to make a judgment (Table 7).

3.2.3

Apart from the election system, respondents’ knowledge of the total number of seats returned by direct election was also put to test. Results found that, 76% confessed that they had no idea at all, 9% thought they knew but their answer was wrong. Only 16% of them

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKU POP

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Survey Report

were capable of giving the correct answer, i.e. 30 seats (Table 8). 3.2.4

When it came to their own geographic constituencies, the knowledge level slumped further. As high as 88% admitted they did not know, another 9% gave a wrong answer. Meanwhile, just 3% was able to answer this question correctly (Table 9).

3.3

Hong Kong Electors’ Voting Behaviour and Propensity to Vote

3.3.1

Of the 808 registered voters captured in this survey (Table 10), one-tenth of them (10%, or 8% of total sample) submitted their registration less than a year ago, while 31%（or 24 % of total sample） registered at least four years ago. Moreover, 36%（or 28% of total sample） had forgotten when (Table 11).

3.3.2

Findings also showed that 61% (or 47% of total sample) of these voters self-reported that they had voted in the District Council Election last November, whilst 38% (or 30% of total sample, Table 12) had not. Similarly, 64% (or 50% of total sample) of this sub-group claimed they had voted in some elections before, one-third (33%, or 25% of total sample) said they had not (Table 13).

3.3.3

As a snapshot taken three and a half months ahead of the Legislative Election, the registered voters’ propensity to vote was found to be 78% (Table 14). Nevertheless, this percentage should never be taken as a projection of the actual turnout rate because many people who claimed they would vote at this stage would eventually not vote.

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKU POP

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Survey Report

3.4

Hong Kong People’s Political Inclination and Participation in Political Activities

3.4.1

Regarding the political inclination of the respondents, two-thirds of them（67%）said they would prefer to vote for a candidate rather than a political party, if they were given a free choice, whilst 19% would opt for a party (Table 15).

3.4.2

On the other hand, those who inclined to support the pro-democracy camp accounted for 32% of the overall sample, 5% went to the pro-China camp, while 30% preferred to associate themselves with the moderate camp. Meanwhile, 26% said they had no political inclination at all (Table 16).

3.4.3

Looking back, 19% and 2% of the respondents had participated in the July 1 and new year rallies respectively (Tables 17 & 18). What about the July 1 rally this year? 13% gave an affirmative answer, including 5% who said “definitely yes” (Table 19).

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKU POP

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Survey Report

In-depth and Comparative Analyses

4.1

“New” Vs “Old” Registered Voters

4.1.1

Cross-tabulation analyses were conducted in order to study the differences between the “new” voters and “old” voters, in terms of their election knowledge, propensity to vote and political inclination. “New voters” is operationally defined as those who submitted their voter registration after the last LegCo Election took place four years ago (base=267), while “old voters” is defined as those who had registered before that (base=251). This section has only included the most significant findings.

4.1.2

Our cross-tabulation analyses showed that a relatively higher proportion, 12%, of the “old” voters claimed they knew the proportional representation system, compared to only 5% of the “new” voters.

4.1.3

Meanwhile, further analyses also found that the propensity to vote in the coming LegCo Election was higher among the “old” voters, as 59% of them said they would definitely cast their vote, which was 10 percentage points higher than that of the “new” voters (49%).

4.1.4

On the other hand, “new” voters’ propensity to participate in this year’s July1 rally was higher than that of the “old” voters, figures being 21% and 12% respectively.

4.1.5

In terms of their demographic profile, analyses showed that the “new” voters were generally younger than the “old” voters (within age bracket 18-29: 39% vs 13%), received relatively more education (within those with secondary education or above: 87% vs 78%), and also with many more students (18% vs 1%).

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKU POP

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Survey Report

4.2

Comparison among 1998, 2000 and 2004 Direct Elections (Please refer to Summary Table below for cross-reference of the figures cited.)

4.2.1

When compared with the data collected in February 1998 and June 2000, i.e. roughly 3.5 months ahead of the elections, the percentage of those who claimed to have some knowledge of the proportional representation system grew from 2% in 1998, to 4% in 2000, and then 7% this year. Meanwhile, those who thought this system was suitable for Hong Kong also grew from 1998’s 11% to 2000’s 17%, and then this year’s 27%. However, the number of respondents holding the opposite view also increased from 13% in 1998, to 14% in 2000, and then 23% this year.

4.2.2

As regards respondents’ knowledge of the number of direct-elected seats, the proportion of respondents who could give a correct answer to the total number of seats in Hong Kong was 6% in 1998, it climbed to 16% this year. However, the correct percentage remained at a low level of 3% this year as far as the respondent’s own geographical constituency (GC) was concerned. It indicated that the respondents’ knowledge of its own GC was very limited 3.5 months before the election. Such figures were not available for the year 2000.

4.2.3

When the registered voter’s propensity to vote was compared across three election years, all taken around 3.5 months before the election, the figure increased significantly from 63% in 1998 to 78% in 2000, and then remained stable this year (78%).

4.2.4

Finally, all three surveys had showed that respondents would prefer to vote for a candidate rather than a party, if they were given a free choice. The pro-candidate figures registered in 1998, 2000 and this year were 65%, 71% and 67% correspondingly.

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKU POP

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Survey Report

Conclusion

5.1

This survey has showed that, people’s general knowledge of the election system and the number of seats to be returned by direct election in the coming Legislative Council Election was at a very low level. As high as 68% of the respondents admitted they had limited knowledge of the proportional representation system and only 16% managed to answer correctly when asked for the total number of direct-elected seats. The knowledge level further slumped to 3% when it came to the respondent’s own geographical constituency.

5.2

With respect to their political inclination, 67% of the respondents claimed they preferred to vote for a candidate rather than a party, whilst those who affiliated themselves with pro-democracy camp and moderate camp each accounted for around 30%.

5.3

As a snapshot taken 3.5 months ahead of the Election, the self-reported propensity to vote among the registered voters captured in this survey was 78%. As for their voting history, 61% of these voters claimed they had voted in the DC Election last November.

5.4

Results also revealed that 13% of the respondents said they intended to participate in the July1 rally this year, including 5% who said “definitely yes”.

5.5

Cross-tabulation analyses showed that generally more “old” voters (those registered at least 4 years ago) than the “new” voters (those registered less than 4 years) claimed they had a better understanding of the election system (12% and 5% respectively). Besides, 59% of the former group said they would definitely cast their vote in September as compared to 49% of the latter. However, in terms of their propensity to participate in this year’s July 1 rally, the “new” comers were relatively more positive than the “old” voters (21% and 12% respectively).

5.6

Finally, as indicated by the comparative analyses across three election years, the proportion of respondents who claimed to have some knowledge of the election system grew from 2% in 1998 to 4% in 2000, and then to 7% this year. Moreover, those who could give a correct answer to the total number of direct-elected seats in Hong Kong also grew from 6% in 1998 to 16% this year. As for the registered voter’s propensity to vote, taken around 3.5 months ahead of the election, the figure also increased from 63% in 1998 to 78% in 2000, and remained at the same high level this year.

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKU POP

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Survey Report

A Summary Table – Time Series Analyses with 1998 and 2000 data Date of survey Overall sample size Number of registered voters Overall response rate Sampling error of % (at 95% conf. level)*

18-20/5/2004 Latest change

10/2/1998

7-8/6/2000

535

1,074

1,039

359^

791

808

48.7%

49.0%

62.3%

+/- 4%

+/- 3%

+3%

89%

78%

68%

-10%

11%

17%

27%

+10%

13%

14%

23%

+10%

16%

+10%

94%

85%

-10%

Registered voters’ propensity to vote

63%^

78%

Vote preference : a candidate Vote preference: a political party

65%

71%

67%

-4%

14%

19%

+5%

Some knowledge of the proportional representation system ** No knowledge of the proportional representation system ** A suitable election system for HK An unsuitable election system for HK Correct answer to the total number of direct-elected seats in HK Did not know or wrong answer to the total number of direct-elected seats in HK Correct answer to the number of direct-elected seats in their own GC Did not know or wrong answer to the no. of direct-elected seats in their own GC

* “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. ** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. ^ The figure shown was an average of 4 surveys conducted in Feb 1998.

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKU POP

Appendix 1 Demographic Profile of Respondents

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Demographic Profile of Respondents

Demographic Profile of Respondents Table 1

Gender

Male Female

Table 2

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 502 48.3 537 51.7 1,039 Total 100.0

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 501 48.3 538 51.7 1,039 100.0

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 91 9.5 160 16.6 194 20.2 243 25.3 132 13.7 142 14.8 Total 962 100.0

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 50 5.2 163 16.9 229 23.8 218 22.6 122 12.7 181 18.8 962 100.0

Age

18-20 21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 or above

Missing case(s)

Table 3

Education Attainment

Raw sample Frequency Percentage Primary or below 195 19.0 Secondary 566 55.2 Tertiary or above 264 25.8 Total 1,025 100.0 Missing case(s)

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 213 20.8 542 52.9 269 26.3 1,024 100.0 15

App I - 1

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Table 4

The type of ownership of your house is:

Self-purchased Rent

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 598 59.2 412 40.8 Total 1,010 100.0

Missing case(s)

Table 5

Demographic Profile of Respondents

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 594 58.9 413 41.1 1,007 100.0 32

House type

Public housing estate Housing Authority subsidized sale flats Housing Society subsidized sale flats Private housing Village: villas / bungalows / modern village houses

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 344 34.0

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 342 33.8

175

17.3

171

17.0

1.0

1.1

444

43.8

445

44.1

1.2

1.1

1.2

0.6

Total

5 5 1,013

0.5 0.5 100.0

5 5 1,009

0.5 0.5 100.0

Missing case(s)

Village: simple stone structures / traditional village houses Private temporary housing Staff quarters Others

App I - 2

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Table 9

Place of birth

Hong Kong Mainland China Macau Southeast Asia（e.g. Malaysia、Indonesia、 Vietnam） Canada America Australia England Others Total Missing case(s) Table 10

Demographic Profile of Respondents

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 684 67.2 310 30.5 6 0.6

15 0 2 0 0 1 1,018 21

1.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 100.0

17 0 2 0 0 1 1,017 22

1.7 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 100.0

【Only for those born in mainland China】How long have you been living in Hong Kong？【Input exact number】

Raw sample Frequency Percentage Less than 7 years 18 6.0 More than 7 years 264 85.9 Forgotten 25 8.1 Total 307 100.0 3 Missing case(s) Table 11

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 664 65.3 326 32.1 6 0.6

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 17 5.3 279 86.2 28 8.5 324 100.0 2

District of Residence

Raw sample Frequency Percentage New Territories East 274 26.7 New Territories West 268 26.1 Hong Kong Islands 185 18.0 Kowloon East 163 15.9 Kowloon West 136 13.3 Total 1,026 100.0 13 Missing case(s)

App I - 4

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 281 27.4 257 25.1 187 18.2 162 15.8 138 13.4 1,024 100.0 15

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Table 6

Demographic Profile of Respondents

Occupation

Raw sample Frequency Percentage Executives and 185 18.4 Clerical and service 235 23.4 Production workers 140 13.9 Students 99 9.9 Housewives 162 16.1 Others 184 18.3 Total 1,005 100.0 Missing case(s)

Table 7

Which class do you consider your family belongs to? (Interviewer to read out the first 5 options)

Upper class Upper-middle class Middle class Lower-middle class Lower class or grassroots Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know / Forgotten Total Missing case(s)

Table 8

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 193 19.2 237 23.6 143 14.2 69 6.9 157 15.7 204 20.3 1004 100.0

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 2 .2 45 4.4 351 34.4 302 29.6 285 27.9 35 3.4 1,020 100.0 19

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 2 .2 46 4.5 349 34.2 291 28.6 294 28.9 37 3.6 1,019 100.0 20

Is your family in negative equity?

Raw sample Frequency Percentage Yes 120 11.7 No 880 86.0 Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know / Forgotten 23 2.2 Total 1,023 100.0 Missing case(s)

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 125 12.2 875 85.6 23 2.3 1,023 100.0 16

App I - 3

Appendix 2 Frequency Tables

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey【All GCs】

Frequency Tables

Part 1 Calculation of Response Rate and Detailed Breakdown of Contact Information of the Survey Table 1

Calculation of response rate

Response rate =

Successful cases Successful cases + Incomplete cases + Refusal cases by eligible respondents = =

1,039 1,039 + 620 + 9 62.3%

Table 2 Detailed breakdown of contact information of the survey Frequency

Respondents’ ineligibility confirmed

Percentage

2,508

Fax/ data line Invalid number Call-forwarding/ mobile/ pager number Non-residential number Special technological difficulties No eligible respondents

350 1,473 35 399 157 94

Respondents’ eligibility not confirmed Line busy No answer Answering device Call-blocking Language problem Interview terminated before the screening question Others

4.4 18.4 0.4 5.0 2.0 1.2 2,944

265 1,646 41 226 184 567 15

Respondents’ eligibility confirmed, but failed to complete the interview Household-level refusal Known respondent refusal Appointment date beyond the end of the fieldwork Partial interview Miscellaneous

31.4

36.7

3.3 20.5 0.5 2.8 2.3 7.1 0.2 1,524

3 6 1,444 53 18

19.0

0.0 0.1 18.0 0.7 0.2

Successful cases

1,039

13.0

Total

8,015

100.0

App II - 1

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey【All GCs】

Frequency Tables

Part 2 General Questions

Table 3

Which problem do you think the would-be Legislative Councillors elected in the coming September need to tackle first? (Interviewers not to read out the answers; only one answer is allowed.) Frequency

Percentage

526

51.5

216

21.1

8.5

2.0

1.2

11 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 1 36

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 3.5 7.1

Total

72 1,021

Missing case(s)

Economy (including inflation, stock market supervision, economic recession, etc.) Labour / Employment / Unemployment problems Constitutional / Democratic development People's livelihood Relations with the Central People’s Government Argument/polarization of society Health / Sanitation Welfare Safeguard of freedom Environment Security Housing / Accommodation Traffic Basic Law Article 23 legislation Others Don’t know / Hard to say

App II -2

100.0

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey【All GCs】

Table 4

Frequency Tables

In terms of livelihood issues, which political party or group appeals to you most? (Interviewers not to read out the answers; only one answer is allowed.) Frequency 207

Percentage 20.3

8.9

7.9

0.4

4 4 3 2

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2

0.2

0.1

0.8

312 295

30.6 29.0

Total

1,017

100.0

Missing case(s)

Democratic Party Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong Liberal Party Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People’s Livelihood Frontier Independent democrats Independent candidates Hong Kong Progressive Alliance The Neighbourhood and Workers Service Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions Article 45 Concern Group Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions Others None Don’t know / Hard to say

App II -3

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey【All GCs】

Table 5

Frequency Tables

In terms of political issues, which political party or group appeals to you most？ (Interviewers not to read out the answers; only one answer is allowed.) Frequency 246

Percentage 24.2

9.1

65 11 8 4

6.4 1.1 0.8 0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.9

268 304

26.3 29.9

Total

1,017

100.0

Missing case(s)

Democratic Party Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong Liberal Party Frontier Article 45 Concern Group Independent candidates Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People’s Li lih ddemocrats Independent Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions Others None Don’t know / Hard to say

Table 6

Proportional representation system, with “party-list system” as its other name, is used in the geographical constituencies’ direct election of the Legislative Council Election. How much do you think you know about this system? Frequency 22 ) 49 ) 71 197 403 ) 300 ) 703

A lot Quite a lot So so Not much Not at all Don’t know / Hard to say Total

62 1,034

Missing case(s)

App II -4

Percentage 2.1 ) 4.8 ) 6.9 19.1 39.0 ) 29.0 ) 68.00 6.0 100.0

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey【All GCs】

Table 7

Do you think the proportional representation system is suitable for Hong Kong? Frequency 275 236

Percentage 27.0 23.2

Total

507 1,018

49.8 100.0

Missing case(s)

Yes No Don’t know / Hard to say

Table 8

Do you know the number of direct-elected seats in Hong Kong in this year’s Legislative Council Election? (The correct answer is 30 seats. If the respondent’s answer is wrong, interviewer can read out the answer.) Frequency 161 94

Percentage 15.5 9.0

Total

783 1,037

75.5 100.0

Missing case(s)

Yes and correct Yes but wrong No

Table 9

Frequency Tables

Do you know the number of direct-elected seats in your geographical constituency?【Input exact number】(The correct answers are: 6 seats in the Hong Kong Island Constituency / 4 seats in the Kowloon West Constituency / 5 seats in the Kowloon East Constituency / 8 seats in the New Territories West Constituency / 7 seats in the New Territories East Constituency) Frequency 30 97

Percentage 2.9 9.4

Total

908 1,035

87.7 100.0

Missing case(s)

Yes and correct Yes but wrong No

App II -5

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey【All GCs】

Frequency Tables

Part III Political Inclination Table 10

Are you a registered voter?

Yes （including those who have just No

Frequency 808 228

Percentage 78.0 22.0

Total

1,036

100.0

Missing case(s)

Table 11

【Only for registered voters】When did you register as a voter？【Deduced from the year, input exact number】 Frequency

Percentage of

total responses

total sample

This year，2004，which means no more than 1 year

10.3

8.0

Last year，2003，which means no more than 2 years 2 years or above 3 years or above 4 years or above，and so on

7.9

6.1

28 92 251

3.5 11.4 31.1

2.7 8.8 24.1

35.8 100.0

27.8

Total

289 807

Missing case(s)

Forgotten

Table 12

【Only for registered voters】Did you vote in the District Council Election last November?

Yes No: because the councillors were automatically elected No: can vote but has not voted No: not yet registered at that Forgotten Total Missing case(s)

Frequency 490 46

) 173 ) 88 ) 307 7 805 3

App II -6

Percentage of total

responses

sample

60.9 5.8

) 21.5 ) 11.0 ) 38.3 0.9 100.0

47.2 4.5 ) 16.6 ) 8.5 ) 29.6 0.7

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey【All GCs】

Table 13

【Only for registered voters】Have you ever voted in the three tiers’ Council elections (i.e. District Council, the two Municipal Councils and the Legislative Council) ?

Forgotten

Percentage of

responses

total sample

63.8 20.0 ) 12.5 ) 32.5

30 808

Total

3.7 100.0

49.7 15.6 ) 9.7 ) 25.3 2.9

【Only for registered voters】Will you vote in the coming Legislative Council Election in September？ Percentage of total

Percentage of

responses

total sample

Frequency 432 ) 195 ) 627

Definitely will Most likely will

29 ) 39 ) 68

Most likely won’t Definitely won’t Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Total Missing case(s)

Table 15

Percentage of total

Frequency 516 162 ) 101 ) 263

Yes No: not yet registered No: already registered

Table 14

Frequency Tables

53.5 ) 24.2 ) 77.7

41.6 ) 18.8 ) 60.4

3.6 ) 4.8 ) 8.4

2.8 ) 3.8 ) 6.6

112

13.9

807

100.0

10.8

If you were given a choice, would you prefer to vote for a candidate or for a political party? Frequency 692 194

Percentage 66.9 18.8

Total

50 98 1,034

4.8 9.5 100.0

Missing case(s)

Candidate Political Party Doesn’t matter Don’t know / Hard to say

App II -7

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey【All GCs】

Table 16

Based on your own political inclination, which camp do you tend to support? (Interviewers read out the answers; only one answer is allowed.) Frequency 328 302 47 11

Percentage 32.1 29.6 4.6 1.1

267

26.2

Total

66 1,021

6.4 100.0

Missing case(s)

Pro-democracy camp Moderate camp Pro-China camp Others No political inclination / Not belong to any camp Don’t know / Hard to say

Table 17

Frequency Tables

Did you participate in the July 1 rally last year？ Frequency 191 843

Percentage 18.5 81.4

Total

1 1036

0.1 100.0

Missing case(s)

Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten

Table 18

Did you participate in the January 1 rally？ Frequency 20 1013

Percentage 1.9 97.8 0.3

Total

3 1036

Missing case(s)

Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten

App II -8

100.0

2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey【All GCs】

Table 19

Frequency Tables

Will you participate in the July 1 rally this year？

Definitely yes Most likely yes

Frequency 50 ) 88 ) 138

Percentage 4.9 ) 8.5 ) 13.4

Most likely no Definitely no

171 ) 474 ) 645

16.6 ) 45.9 ) 62.5

Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard

250

24.2

Total

1,033

100.0

Missing case(s)

App II -9

Appendix 3 Questionnaire

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG 香港大學 PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME 民意研究計劃 Tel 電話：(852) 2859 2988 Fax 傳真：(852) 2517 6951 Website 網址：http: / / hkupop.hku.hk Address: Room 804, Meng Wah Complex, the University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong 地址：香港薄扶林道香港大學明華綜合大樓 804 室

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME & CIVIC EXCHANGE JOINTLY CONDUCT

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election：1st Survey 【All constituencies in Hong Kong】

Questionnaire（Finalized）

18 May 2004

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) was established in June 1991 at the Social Sciences Research Centre under the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Hong Kong. It was transferred to the Journalism and Media Studies Centre of the University of Hong Kong in May 2000, and then back to the Faculty of Social Sciences in January 2002. 香港大學民意研究計劃在一九九一年六月成立，初時隸屬香港大學社會科學學院的社會科學研究中心，二零零零年五月轉往香港大學新聞及傳媒研究中心，二零零二年一月再轉回香港大學社會科學學院管轄。

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Section I

Questionnaire

Self Introduction

Good evening, I am an interviewer from the Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong. We would like to ask for your opinion regarding the Legislative Council Election which would only take you a couple of minutes. Please be rested assured that the information you provide will be kept strictly confidential.

[S1] Which district are you living in? Wanchai Eastern Central / Western Southern Sai Kung Shatin North Tai Po Kwun Tong Kowloon City Wong Tai Sin Mongkok Sham Shui Po Yau Tsim Islands Tsuen Wan Kwai Tsing Tuen Mun Yuen Long Refuse to answer [S2] How many members are there in your household？【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer

App III -1

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Section II

Questionnaire

Selection of Respondent

[S3] How many members are there in your household aged 18 or above at this moment? (Interviewers can directly ask if there is only one qualified respondent at home. If so, interviewer can interview him / her at once.) Since we need to conduct random sampling, if there is more than one available, I would like to speak to the one who will have his / her birthday next. (Interviewer can illustrate with examples: “that means is there anyone who will have his / her birthday in June or the coming three months?”)【If there is no household member aged 18 or above, interview can be terminated.】 Yes No

Interview completed. Thank you for your cooperation. Goodbye. (Skip to end.)

Section III General Questions [Q1] Which problem do you think the would-be Legislative Councillors elected in the coming September need to tackle first? (Interviewers not to read out the answers; only one answer is allowed.) Economy (including inflation, stock market supervision, economic recession, etc.) Labour / Employment / Unemployment problems Housing / Accommodation Health / Sanitation Welfare Environment Security Traffic Constitutional / Democratic development Basic Law Article 23 legislation Relations with the Central People’s Government Others (please specify) Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer

App III -2

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Questionnaire

[Q2]In terms of livelihood issues, which political party or group appeals to you most? (Interviewers not to read out the answers; only one answer is allowed.) Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions Hong Kong Progressive Alliance + The Liberal Democratic Federation Democratic Party Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People's Livelihood Frontier The Neighbourhood and Workers Service April Fifth Action Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions Independent democrats Article 45 Concern Group Liberal Party New Century Forum Independent candidates Others (please specify) None Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer

App III -3

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Questionnaire

[Q3] In terms of political issues, which political party or group appeals to you most？(Interviewers not to read out the answers; only one answer is allowed.) Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions Hong Kong Progressive Alliance + The Liberal Democratic Federation Democratic Party Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People's Livelihood Frontier The Neighbourhood and Workers Service April Fifth Action Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions Independent democrats Article 45 Concern Group Liberal Party New Century Forum Independent candidates Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China None Others (please specify) Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer

[Q4] Proportional representation system, with “party-list system” as its other name, is used in the geographical constituencies’ direct election of the Legislative Council Election. How much do you think you know about this system? A lot Quite a lot So so Not much Not at all Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer

App III -4

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Questionnaire

[Q5] Do you think the proportional representation system is suitable for Hong Kong? Yes No Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer

[Q6] Do you know the number of direct-elected seats in Hong Kong in this year’s Legislative Council Election? (The correct answer is 30 seats. If the respondent’s answer is wrong, interviewer can read out the answer.) Yes and correct Yes but wrong No Refuse to answer

[Q7] Do you know the number of direct-elected seats in your geographical constituency?【Input exact number】(The correct answers are: 6 seats in the Hong Kong Island Constituency / 4 seats in the Kowloon West Constituency / 5 seats in the Kowloon East Constituency / 8 seats in the New Territories West Constituency / 7 seats in the New Territories East Constituency) ________ Don’t know Refuse to answer

[Q8] If you were given a choice, would you prefer to vote for a candidate or for a political party? Candidate Political Party Doesn’t matter Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer

App III -5

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Section IV

Questionnaire

Political Inclination

[Q9] Are you a registered voter? Yes （including those who have just registered） No （skip to Q14） Refuse to answer （skip to Q14）

[Q10] 【Only for registered voters】When did you register as a voter？【Deduced from the year, input exact number】 0＝this year，2004，which means no more than 1 year 1＝last year，2003，which means no more than 2 years 2＝2 years or above 3＝3 years or above，and so on _____ Forgotten Refuse to answer

[Q11] 【Only for registered voters】Did you vote in the District Council Election last November? Yes No: because the councillors were automatically elected No: can vote but has not voted No: not yet registered at that time Forgotten Refuse to answer

App III -6

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Questionnaire

[Q12]【Only for registered voters】Have you ever voted in the three tiers’ Council elections (i.e. District Council, the two Municipal Councils and the Legislative Council) ? Yes No: not yet registered No: already registered Forgotten Refuse to answer

[Q13] 【Only for registered voters】Will you vote in the coming Legislative Council Election in September？ Definitely will Most likely will Most likely won’t Definitely won’t Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q14] Based on your own political inclination, which camp do you tend to support? (Interviewers read out the answers; only one answer is allowed.) Pro-democracy camp Pro-China camp Moderate camp Others (please specify) No political inclination / Not belong to any camp Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q15] Did you participate in the July 1rally last year？ Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten Refuse to answer

App III -7

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Questionnaire

[Q16] Did you participate in the January 1rally？ Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten Refuse to answer

[Q17] Will you participate in the July 1rally this year？ Definitely yes Most likely yes Most likely no Definitely no Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer

Section V Personal Particulars I'd like to know some of your personal particulars in order to facilitate our analysis. [DM1] Gender Male Female [DM2] Age【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer [DM3] Education Attainment Primary or below Secondary Matriculated Tertiary, non-degree course Tertiary, degree course Postgraduate or above Refuse to answer App III -8

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Questionnaire

[D4] The type of ownership of your house is: Self-purchased, or Rent? Refused to answer

[D5] House type Public housing estate Housing Authority subsidized sale flats Housing Society subsidized sale flats Private housing Village: villas / bungalows / modern village houses Village: simple stone structures / traditional village houses Public temporary housing Private temporary housing Staff quarters Others Refuse to answer

[DM6] Occupation Managers and administrators Professionals Associate professionals Clerks Service workers and shop sales workers Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Craft and related workers Plant and machine operators and assemblers Non-skilled workers Students Housewives Unclassified Others (unemployed, retired, etc.) Refuse to answer App III -9

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Questionnaire

[DM7] Which class do you consider your family belongs to? (Interviewer to read out the first 5 options) Upper class Upper-middle class Middle class Lower-middle class Lower class or grassroots Don't know / hard to say Refused to answer

[DM8] Is your family in negative equity? Yes No Don't know / hard to say Refused to answer

[DM9]

Place of birth

Hong Kong （skip to end） Mainland China Taiwan （skip to end） Macau（skip to end） Southeast Asia（e.g. Malaysia、Indonesia、Vietnam）（skip to end） Canada （skip to end） America （skip to end） Australia（skip to end） England（skip to end） Others （skip to end） Don’t know （skip to end） Refuse to answer （skip to end）

App III -10

HKU2004 LegCo Direct Election: 1st Survey [All GCs]

Questionnaire

[DM10] 【Only for those born in mainland China】How long have you been living in Hong Kong？【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer

App III -11