THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION by Civic Exchange

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME (POP)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency 【Hong Kong Island】

SPONSORED BY CIVIC EXCHANGE

SURVEY REPORT

Compiled by Chung Ting-Yiu Robert, Pang Ka-Lai Karie and Lam Mo-Chun Calvin

JUNE 2004

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page

SURVEY REPORT

1-6

Preamble

Research Method

Key Findings

APPENDICES Appendix 1: Demographic Profile of Respondents Appendix 2: Frequency Tables Appendix 3: Survey Questionnaire

Survey Report

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME (POP) CIVIC EXCHANGE JOINTLY CONDUCT

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency ă&#x20AC;?Hong Kong Islandă&#x20AC;&#x2018; SURVEY REPORT Research Team Members Project Director Project Manager Project Executive Data Analyst Report Translator

: : : : :

CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert PANG Ka-Lai Karie LAM Mo-Chun Calvin TSOI Pui-Ching Tony CHAN Ka-Man Carmen

JUNE 2004 CONTACT INFORMATION Date of survey

24 May 2004

Survey method

Telephone survey with interviewers.

Target population

Sampling method

Weighting method

Cantonese-speaking population of Hong Kong aged 18 or above, and currently residing in Hong Kong Island Standard POP telephone sampling method was used. Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one subject had been available, the one who had his/her birthday next was selected. The data reported have been adjusted according to the gender, age and living district distributions of the Hong Kong population as reported in the 2001 Population Census.

Sample size

532 successful cases

Response Rate

71.0%

Std sampling error

Less than 2.2%

Everything in this publication is the work of individual researchers, and does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert is responsible for the work of the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong.

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Survey Report

Preamble

1.1

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) was established in June 1991 to collect and study public opinion on topics that could be of interest to academics, journalists, policy-makers, and the general public. POP was at first under the Social Sciences Research Centre, a unit under the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Hong Kong, and was transferred to the Journalism and Media Studies Centre in the University of Hong Kong in May 2000. In January 2002, it was transferred back to the Faculty of Social Sciences in the University of Hong Kong. Since its establishment, POP has been conducting opinion researches on various social and political issues and providing quality survey services to a wide range of public and subvented bodies provided that they agreed to publicizing the findings to the general public, as well as allowing the research team to design and conduct the research independently, including the sampling method, questionnaire design, fieldwork supervision, data analysis, and report writing.

1.2

In May 2004, Civic Exchange commissioned the POP Team to conduct a series of public opinion surveys on the 2004 Legislative Council direct election. The first survey was targeted at the general population in Hong Kong and the results have already been released. As the first geographical constituency survey, Hong Kong Island was studied, with the main areas of investigation as follows: i. ii. iii.

1.3

Hong Kong Island residents’ voting inclination; Hong Kong Island voters’ voting behaviour and propensity to vote; Hong Kong Island residents’ participation in political activities.

The questionnaire was designed independently by the POP Team after consultation with the client, whilst fieldwork operations and data analysis were also conducted independently by the POP Team. In order to maintain neutrality, the POP Team did not provide advisory or consultative services of any kind apart form data interpretations and analyses.

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Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituencyă&#x20AC;?HK Islandă&#x20AC;&#x2018;

Survey Report

Research Method

2.1

Random telephone survey with interviewers under strict supervision was adopted. To minimize sampling bias, telephone numbers were first drawn randomly from the residential telephone directories as "seed numbers", from which another set of numbers was generated using the "plus/minus one/two" method, in order to capture the unlisted numbers. Duplicated numbers were then filtered, and the remaining numbers were mixed in random order to produce the final telephone sample.

2.2

The target population of this survey was Cantonese-speaking population of Hong Kong aged 18 or above, who was currently residing in Hong Kong Island. When telephone contact was successfully established with a target household, one person aged 18 or above was selected. If more than one subject had been available, selection was made using the "next birthday rule" which selected the person who had his/her birthday next from all those present.

2.3

Telephone interviews were conducted on 24 May 2004. A total of 532 qualified respondents were successfully interviewed. The overall response rate of this survey was 71.0% (Table 1 Appendix II), and the standard sampling error based on this sample was less than 2.2 percentage points. In other words, the sampling error for all percentages was less than plus/minus 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level.

2.4

As shown in Table 2, among the 2,566 telephone numbers sampled for the survey, 475 were confirmed ineligible, among them 42 were fax or data lines, 243 were invalid telephone numbers, 5 were call-forwarding numbers, while another 43 were non-residential numbers. Besides, 53 of them were invalidated due to special technological reasons, while 89 cases were voided because target respondents were unavailable at the numbers provided.

2.5

Meanwhile, a total of 1,091 telephone numbers were invalidated since the research team could not confirm their eligibility. Among them 297 were busy lines and 469 were no-answer calls after making a maximum of 5 timesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; recalls. Thirteen cases were diverted to answering devices while another 58 were blocked. Moreover, 42 cases were treated as unsuccessful because of language problems, while 211 interviews were terminated before the screening question. One case was voided for other problems of the line.

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Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituencyă&#x20AC;?HK Islandă&#x20AC;&#x2018;

2.6

Survey Report

On the other hand, 468 cases were qualified, yet failed to complete the interview. Among them 10 were rejected at the household level, another 3 rejected the interview immediately after their eligibility was confirmed, 432 were unfinished cases with appointment dates beyond the end of fieldwork period. Besides, 22 cases were incomplete due to unexpected termination of interviews, 1 was classified as miscellaneous due to other non-contact problems, and the remaining 532 were successful cases (Table 2 in Appendix II).

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 3

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Survey Report

Key Findings (Please refer to Appendix II for cross-reference of the tables cited.)

3.1

Hong Kong Island Residents’ Voting Inclination

3.1.1

This survey revealed that, if the Legislative Council election were to be held tomorrow, and the respondents in Hong Kong Island had the right to vote, of the 12 candidates or lists predetermined by the POP Team, a quarter of the respondents (25%) said they would cast their votes to Audrey Eu of Article 45 Concern Group, which made her the most popular candidate on the list. The 2nd and 3rd places fell to the independent candidate Rita Fan and Martin Lee of Democratic Party, obtaining 13% and 10% of vote shares respectively. Also, 9% of the respondents would vote for any list from the pro-democracy camp, while 6% of the respondents would vote for Alan Leong of Article 45 Concern Group. On the other hand, 15% had not yet decided, while 5% claimed they would not vote. Due to the high sampling error, those obtained less than 5% of vote shares were not discussed here (Table 3a; for the vote shares obtained by each candidate or list after excluding those respondents who failed to give a concrete choice, please refer to Table 3b).

3.1.2

Table 4 shows the reallocations of hypothetical vote shares after teaming up any two of the candidates among the 12 candidates or lists. For instance, if Audrey Eu teamed up with Alan Leong, their joint vote share would become 41%. Extra caution, however, should be taken when interpreting these figures as the calculation of the joint vote share was based on a mere summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team. In real-life situations, some of the team-ups would be quite unlikely. Also, while people’s voting behaviours are relatively not predictable, the summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team might not accurately reflect the joint vote shares after teaming up.

3.1.3

Respondents were further asked for their best alternatives if their first choices dropped out from the competition. As shown in Table 5, the shaded area

indicates the absence of that specific candidate, while the horizontal-axis and vertical-axis indicate the respondents’ first choice and second choice respectively. When interpreting vertically, the column figures represent the re-distribution of vote shares under each hypothetical drop-out scenario. For instance, the first A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 4

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Survey Report

column of Table 5 shows the vote shares obtained by other candidates if Martin Lee dropped out, i.e. Yeung Sum would obtain 11% of vote share (an 8-percentage-point increase from the first voting exercise, Table 3b) whereas Cyd Ho would obtain 2% of vote share (no change, Table 3b). 3.1.4

If respondents’ first two choices did not run for the election, what would be the further changes in the vote shares? Table 6 to Table 15 reveal the distribution of votes if two candidates or lists dropped out from the competition, with the shaded area indicating the absence of that specific candidate. Again, figures should be interpreted vertically. To illustrate, the second column of Table 6 gives the vote shares obtained by other candidates if neither Martin Lee nor Yeung Sum ran for the HK Island Constituency. In such case, Cyd Ho would obtain 6% of vote share (a 5-percentage-point increase from the first voting exercise, Table 3b), and Jasper Tsang would obtain 4% (no change, Table 3b), so on and so forth.

3.1.5

Put it in another way, if candidates from Democratic Party, Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, Liberal Party, Frontier, Article 45 Concern Group, and some other independent candidates all took part in the election, 43% of the respondents in Hong Kong Island stated that they would never support Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, 15% would never support Democratic Party and 12% would never support Liberal Party. The corresponding percentages obtained by Frontier and Article 45 Concern Group were relatively low, both at 5%. It is worth noticing that one-third (34%) of the respondents had not yet decided which party or independent candidate they would never support at the interview time (Table 18).

3.1.6

Among the 322 respondents who claimed they would support the Democratic Party or the pro-democratic camp earlier, 64% (or 39% of total sample) of them indicated that if candidates from these two groups ran in the same list, they would still vote for such a list, while 17% (or 11% of total sample) would re-consider and 19% had not decided yet (or 11% of total sample; Table 19).

3.1.7

This survey also found that, in order to support the camp which appealed to them, 36% of these Hong Kong Island respondents would go for the list of this camp, no matter they liked or disliked the candidates on the list. Meanwhile, 57% would not (Table 20).

3.1.8

As regards the respondents’ reaction to the vote-allocation instructions given out by the camp they supported (such as casting their votes to another list belonging

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 5

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Survey Report

to the same camp according to their ID card number or birthday), 71% of the respondents said that they would not follow such instructions, while 21% would (Table 21).

3.2 Hong Kong Island Voters’ Voting Behaviour and Propensity to Vote 3.2.1

Of the 440 registered voters captured in this survey（Table 22）, 9% (or 8% of total sample) submitted their registration less than a year ago, while 28% (or 23% of total sample) registered at least four years ago. Besides, as high as 48% (or 39% of total sample) had forgotten when they registered (Table 23).

3.2.2

The survey also found that, 58% (or 48% of total sample) of these voters self-reported that they had voted in the District Council election last November, whilst 41% (or 34% of total sample; Table 24) had not. Besides, 81% (or 67% of total sample) of this sub-group claimed that they had voted in the past Council election in different tiers, 17% (or 14% of total sample) had not (Table 25).

3.2.3

As a snapshot taken three and a half months ahead of the Legislative Council election, the registered voters’ propensity to vote was found to be 82% within the Hong Kong Island constituency (Table 26). Nevertheless, this percentage should never be taken as a projection of the actual turnout rate because many people who claimed they would vote at this stage would eventually not vote.

3.3

Hong Kong Island Residents’ Participation in Political Activities

3.3.1

When being asked whether they had participated in the July 1 rally last year and the January 1 rally this year, 23% and 4% of the respondents in Hong Kong Island said “yes” respectively (Table 27 and Table 28).

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 6

Appendix 1 Demographic Profile of Respondents

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Respondents’ Profile

Demographic Profile of Respondents

Table 1

Gender

Total

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 232 43.6 300 56.4 532 100.0

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 244 45.8 288 54.2 532 100.0

Total

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 92 19.1 67 13.9 136 28.2 98 20.3 89 18.5 482 100.0

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 99 20.5 115 23.9 109 22.7 66 13.6 93 19.3 482 100.0

Male Female

Table 2

Age

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 or above Missing

Table 3

Education Attainment

Primary or below Secondary Postgraduate or above Total Missing

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 101 19.2 275 52.2 151 28.7 527 100.0 5

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 98 18.6 267 50.4 164 31.0 529 100.0 3

AppendixI-1

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 4

The type of ownership of your house is:

Self-purchased, or Rent? Total Missing Table 5

Respondents’ Profile

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 356 68.7 162 31.3 518 100.0 14

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 354 68.1 166 31.9 520 100.0 12

House type

Public housing estate Housing Authority subsidized sale flats Housing Society subsidized sale flats Private housing Village: villas / bungalows / modern village houses Village: simple stone structures / traditional village houses Private temporary housing Staff quarters Others Total Missing

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 117 22.4

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 115 21.9

11.1

10.2

1.5

1.4

328

62.7

338

64.5

0.4

0.3

0.8

1 2 3 523

0.2 0.4 0.6

1 2 3 524

0.1 0.3 0.5 100.0

AppendixI-2

100.0

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 6

Respondents’ Profile

Occupation Raw sample Frequency Percentage

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage

Professionals and semi-professionals

135

26.5

149

29.2

Clerk and service workers

104

20.4

106

20.7

Production workers Students

48 38

9.4 7.5

41 40

8.0 7.8

Housewives

15.9

14.3

Total

103 509

20.2 100.0

102 510

19.9 100.0

Missing

Others

Table 7 Which class do you consider your family belongs to? out the first 5 options, only one answer is allowed) Raw sample Frequency Percentage 3 0.6 Upper class 29 5.5 Upper-middle class 201 38.4 Middle class 157 30.0 Lower-middle class 101 19.3 Lower class or grassroots 33 6.3 Don't know / hard to say 524 Total 100.0 Missing

Table 8

(Interviewer to read

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 3 0.5 27 5.1 197 37.4 164 31.3 106 20.2 28 5.4 526 100.0 6

Is your family in negative equity?

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 48 9.2 Yes 459 87.6 No 17 3.2 Don't know / hard to say 524 Total 100.0 Missing

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 40 7.6 465 88.6 20 3.8 525 100.0 7

AppendixI-3

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 9

Respondents’ Profile

Place of birth

Hong Kong Mainland China Taiwan Macau Southeast Asia (e.g. Malaysia、Indonesia、

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 374 70.6 132 24.9 1 0.2 9 1.7

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 377 71.1 130 24.6 1 0.2 7 1.4

2.3

2.2

2 530 2

0.4

3 531 1

0.5 100.0

Vietnam) Others Total Missing

100.0

Table 10 【Only for those born in mainland China】How long have you been living in Hong Kong？【Input exact number】

Less than 7 years More than 7 years Forgotten Total Missing

Table 11

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 8 6.1 102 77.9 21 16.0 131 100.0 1

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 10 7.4 101 77.7 19 15.0 130 100.0 0

District of Residence

Wan Chai Eastern Central & Western Southern Total

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 36 6.8 269 50.6 100 18.8 127 23.9 532 100.0

AppendixI-4

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 13.0 69 45.9 244 19.8 105 21.3 113 532

100.0

Appendix 2 Frequency Tables

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Frequency Tables

Part 1 Detailed Breakdown of Contact Information of the Survey and Calculation of Overall Response Rate Table 1

Calculation of overall response rate

Overall Response Rate =

Successful cases Successful cases + Incomplete cases + Refusal cases by eligible respondents ^ + Refusal cases by prorated-eligible respondents*

532 532 + 22 + 13 + 211[(532 + 22 + 13) / (532 + 22 + 13 + 89)]

= 71.0% ^ Including “household-level refusal” and “known respondent refusal”. *Figure obtained by prorata. Table 2

Detailed breakdown of contact information of the survey Frequency

Percentage

475

18.6

Respondents’ ineligibility confirmed Fax/ data line Invalid number Call-forwarding/ mobile/ pager number Non-residential number Special technological difficulties No eligible respondents

42 243 5 43 53 89

Respondents’ eligibility not confirmed Line busy No answer Answering device Call-blocking Language problem Interview terminated before the screening question Others

1,091 297 469 13 58 42 211 1

Respondents’ eligibility confirmed, but failed to complete the interview Household-level refusal Known respondent refusal Appointment date beyond the fieldwork period Partial interview Miscellaneous Successful cases Total AppendixII-1

1.6 9.5 0.2 1.7 2.1 3.5 42.5 11.6 18.3 0.5 2.3 1.6 8.2 0.0 468

10 3 432 22 1

18.1 0.4 0.1 16.8 0.8 0.0

532

20.7

2,566

100.0

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Frequency Tables

Part 2 General Questions

Table 3a

If the Legislative Council elections were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right

to vote, which candidate or list would you vote for？(Interviewers read out the names of candidates who would stand for elections, A11 and A12. The random order of the names would be displayed on the computer. Only one answer is allowed. )

Frequency

Percentage

133

25.2

Independent Rita Fan

13.3

Martin Lee of DP

9.8

Any list from the pro-democratic camp

9.1

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

6.1

Jasper Tsang of DAB

2.8

Yeung Sum of DP

2.4

Choy So-yuk of DAB

2.0

Ma Lik of DAB

1.9

Any list from the pro-China camp

1.6

Cyd Ho of Frontier

1.3

Independent Tsang Kin Shing

0.9

1.6

Cast blank votes / Elect nobody

2.1

Won’t vote

5.4

Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say

14.6

Total

529

100.0

Missing

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate

AppendixII-2

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 3b

Frequency Tables

【Excluding those respondents answered “Depend on the overall team-up and will not

vote for a specific candidate”, “Cast blank votes / Elect nobody” and “Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say”】 If the Legislative Council elections were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, which candidate or list would you vote for？(Interviewers read out the names of candidates who would stand for elections, A11 and A12. The random order of the names would be displayed on the computer. Only one answer is allowed. )

Frequency

Percentage

133

33.0

Independent Rita Fan

17.4

Martin Lee of DP

12.8

Any list from the pro-democratic camp

11.9

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

8.0

Jasper Tsang of DAB

3.7

Yeung Sum of DP

3.1

Choy So-yuk of DAB

2.6

Ma Lik of DAB

2.4

Any list from the pro-China camp

2.1

Cyd Ho of Frontier

1.7

Independent Tsang Kin Shing

1.2

Total

404

100.0

Missing

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

AppendixII-3

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Hypothetical joint vote share (1st choice) attained by potential candidates after teaming up any two.

Table 4

Candidate / List

Hong Kong Island

Frequency Tables

MAL

CSY

TKS

APD

APC

15.9%

14.5%

16.5%

15.2%

15.4%

45.8%

20.8%

30.2%

14.0%

24.7%

14.9%

4.8%

6.8%

5.5%

5.7%

36.1%

11.1%

20.5%

4.3%

15.0%

5.2%

5.4%

4.1%

4.3%

34.7%

9.7%

19.1%

2.9%

13.6%

3.8%

6.1%

6.3%

36.7%

11.7%

21.1%

4.9%

15.6%

5.8%

5.0%

35.4%

10.4%

19.8%

3.6%

14.3%

4.5%

35.6%

10.6%

20.0%

3.8%

14.5%

4.7%

41.0%

50.4%

34.2%

44.9%

35.1%

25.4%

9.2%

19.9%

10.1%

18.6%

29.3%

19.5%

13.1%

3.3%

15.9%

14.5%

4.8%

16.5%

6.8%

5.4%

MAL

15.2%

5.5%

4.1%

6.1%

CSY

15.4%

5.7%

4.3%

6.3%

5.0%

45.8%

36.1%

34.7%

36.7%

35.4%

35.6%

20.8%

11.1%

9.7%

11.7%

10.4%

10.6%

41.0%

30.2%

20.5%

19.1%

21.1%

19.8%

20.0%

50.4%

25.4%

TKS

14.0%

4.3%

2.9%

4.9%

3.6%

3.8%

34.2%

9.2%

18.6%

APD

24.7%

15.0%

13.6%

15.6%

14.3%

14.5%

44.9%

19.9%

29.3%

13.1%

APC

14.9%

5.2%

3.8%

5.8%

4.5%

4.7%

35.1%

10.1%

19.5%

3.3%

14.0% 14.0%

Initials: [A1]

Martin Lee of DP

[A2]

Yeung Sum of DP

[A3]

Cyd Ho of Frontier

[A4]

Jasper Tsang of DAB

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

* This table is for rough reference only. It must be stated that, the calculation of the joint vote share was based on a mere summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team. In real-life situations, some of the team-ups may be quite unlikely. Also, while people’s voting behaviours are highly unpredicatable, the summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team may not necessarily reflect the joint vote shares of those candidates or lists after the team-ups. AppendixII-4

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 5

Vote share obtained by each candidate if the respondents’ first choice dropped out from elections.

Candidate / List

Hong Kong Island

Frequency Tables

ML YS CH JT MAL CSY AE AL RF TKS APD APC

11.2% 2.3% 4.3% 3.2% 2.9% 44.0% 9.8% 20.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%

MAL

CSY

TKS

15.9%

14.9% 4.0%

14.9% 3.7% 2.3%

15.0% 3.7% 2.0% 5.5%

15.0% 3.7% 2.0% 5.8% 3.2%

23.9% 7.3% 6.0% 4.5% 3.3% 3.6%

15.9% 4.3% 2.6% 4.3% 2.9% 2.9% 44.6%

16.2% 5.2% 2.8% 7.3% 7.0% 3.7% 44.6% 10.4%

14.9% 4.0% 2.3% 4.3% 2.9% 2.9% 38.5% 9.5% 20.7%

2.9% 4.3% 2.9% 2.9% 39.1% 9.9% 20.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%

4.3% 2.9% 2.9% 38.5% 9.5% 21.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%

3.7% 5.5% 38.2% 9.5% 20.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%

4.0% 38.3% 9.5% 20.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.3%

38.6% 9.5% 20.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%

21.8% 26.6% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0%

20.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%

2.4% 0.3% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

Initials: [A1]

Martin Lee of DP

[A2]

Yeung Sum of DP

[A3]

Cyd Ho of Frontier

[A4]

Jasper Tsang of DAB

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

First choice

Second choice

* Reading method: This table’s horizontal-axis and vertical-axis indicate the respondents’ first choices and second choices respectively, while the shaded area indicates the absence of a specific candidate or a list. In other words, the first column of this table shows the vote shares obtained by other candidates if Martin Lee dropped out. (For example, Yeung Sum would obtain 11% of vote share and Cyd Ho would obtain 2% of vote share, etc.). AppendixII-5

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Hong Kong Island

Table 6

Frequency Tables

Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Martin Lee and another one dropped out).

Candidate / List ML YS CH JT MAL CSY AE AL RF TKS APD APC

6.2% 4.4% 3.2% 2.9% 48.4% 10.3% 21.5% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0%

MAL

CSY

TKS

11.5%

11.2% 2.6%

11.3% 2.3% 5.5%

11.2% 2.3% 5.8% 3.5%

21.2% 7.9% 4.5% 3.9% 3.6%

12.5% 3.2% 4.4% 3.2% 2.9% 50.6%

13.8% 3.1% 7.3% 7.3% 3.7% 50.8% 10.7%

11.5% 2.6% 4.3% 3.2% 2.9% 44.5% 9.8% 21.0%

4.3% 3.2% 2.9% 44.5% 9.8% 21.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0%

4.0% 5.5% 44.0% 9.8% 21.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%

4.0% 44.2% 9.8% 20.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.3%

44.4% 9.8% 21.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0%

27.0% 28.2% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%

20.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0%

2.8% 0.6% 0.0%

0.3% 0.0%

Initials: [A1]

Martin Lee of DP

[A2]

Yeung Sum of DP

[A3]

Cyd Ho of Frontier

[A4]

Jasper Tsang of DAB

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

* Reading method: The table’s shaded area indicates the absence of a specific candidate or a list. For example, the second column of this table shows the vote shares obtained by other candidates if both Martin Lee and Yeung Sum dropped out. (For example, Cyd Ho would obtain 6.2% of vote share and Jasper Tsang would obtain 4.4% of vote share, etc.). AppendixII-6

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 7

Frequency Tables

Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Martin Lee and another one dropped out).

Candidate / List

MAL

CSY

TKS

16.6%

15.9%

16.0%

25.8%

17.0%

18.0%

16.0%

3.2%

2.9%

7.6%

3.5%

3.7%

3.2%

5.5%

5.8%

4.9%

4.4%

7.7%

4.4%

3.2%

3.3%

2.9%

7.1%

2.9%

4.3%

2.9%

3.7%

2.9%

46.3%

46.1%

39.5%

10.8%

9.9%

Hong Kong Island

YS CH

6.2%

4.4%

MAL

3.2%

2.9%

3.8%

CSY

2.9%

5.5%

4.1%

48.4%

39.5%

39.1%

39.2%

39.5%

10.3%

10.2%

9.9%

23.4%

21.5%

21.2%

20.6%

21.2%

27.1%

21.1%

TKS

1.8%

1.7%

1.4%

1.5%

2.1%

1.5%

2.5%

APD

1.2%

0.3%

0.0%

1.5%

0.3%

0.0%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

21.2%

Initials: [A1]

Martin Lee of DP

[A2]

Yeung Sum of DP

[A3]

Cyd Ho of Frontier

[A4]

Jasper Tsang of DAB

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

AppendixII-7

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 8

Frequency Tables

Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Cyd Ho and another one dropped out).

Candidate / List

16.6%

ML YS

11.5%

MAL

CSY

TKS

14.9%

15.0%

25.5%

16.3%

14.9%

4.3%

4.0%

7.9%

4.7%

6.1%

4.3%

5.5%

5.8%

4.5%

4.4%

7.4%

4.3%

3.2%

3.3%

2.9%

7.1%

2.9%

3.9%

2.9%

4.0%

2.9%

45.1%

38.8%

10.4%

9.5%

Hong Kong Island

CH JT

4.3%

4.4%

MAL

3.2%

2.9%

3.7%

CSY

2.9%

5.5%

4.0%

44.5%

39.5%

38.5%

38.6%

38.9%

9.8%

10.2%

9.5%

23.0%

21.3%

21.5%

21.6%

21.0%

21.6%

28.2%

21.5%

TKS

2.0%

1.7%

1.8%

1.7%

3.1%

APD

0.6%

0.3%

1.8%

0.6%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

21.8%

Initials: [A1] [A3]

Martin Lee of DP Cyd Ho of Frontier

ML CH

[A2] [A4]

Yeung Sum of DP Jasper Tsang of DAB

YS JT

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

AppendixII-8

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 9

Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Jasper Tsang and another one dropped out).

Candidate / List

Hong Kong Island

Frequency Tables

15.9%

MAL

CSY

TKS

14.9%

15.0%

15.2%

23.9%

15.9%

16.5%

14.9%

4.3%

3.7%

3.8%

7.3%

4.3%

5.3%

4.0%

2.3%

6.3%

2.9%

3.1%

2.6%

5.2%

4.2%

3.8%

8.7%

3.7%

6.3%

5.5%

7.5%

5.5%

44.6%

45.3%

38.5%

10.9%

9.5%

11.2%

2.6%

3.2%

MAL

4.0%

3.8%

3.7%

CSY

5.5%

7.8%

44.0%

39.1%

38.5%

38.6%

39.1%

9.8%

9.9%

9.5%

10.5%

21.8%

21.0%

21.2%

21.6%

21.0%

22.4%

27.2%

21.2%

TKS

1.7%

1.4%

1.7%

1.4%

1.5%

1.4%

2.5%

APD

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

1.5%

0.3%

0.0%

APC

0.0%

0.6%

0.0%

21.3%

Initials: [A1] [A3]

Martin Lee of DP Cyd Ho of Frontier

ML CH

[A2] [A4]

Yeung Sum of DP Jasper Tsang of DAB

YS JT

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

AppendixII-9

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Frequency Tables

Table 10 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Ma Lik and another one dropped out).

Candidate / List

Hong Kong Island

16.0%

15.0% 4.0%

MAL

CSY

TKS

15.0%

15.2%

23.9%

16.0%

16.4%

15.0%

3.7%

3.8%

7.3%

4.4%

5.9%

4.0%

2.3%

2.0%

6.1%

2.6%

2.8%

2.3%

7.3%

6.1%

5.5%

9.3%

5.5%

4.8%

4.1%

6.8%

4.0%

44.8%

45.1%

38.6%

10.8%

9.5%

11.3%

2.3%

2.9%

5.5%

CSY

4.0%

4.1%

4.0%

7.8%

44.2%

39.2%

38.6%

39.1%

9.8%

9.9%

9.5%

9.6%

21.8%

20.5%

20.6%

21.0%

21.3%

26.7%

20.6%

TKS

1.7%

1.5%

1.7%

1.4%

1.5%

2.5%

APD

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

1.5%

0.3%

0.0%

APC

0.3%

0.6%

0.3%

MAL

20.7%

Initials: [A1] [A3]

Martin Lee of DP Cyd Ho of Frontier

ML CH

[A2] [A4]

Yeung Sum of DP Jasper Tsang of DAB

YS JT

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

AppendixII-10

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Frequency Tables

Table 11 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Choy So-yuk and another one dropped out).

Candidate / List

Hong Kong Island

MAL

16.0%

15.0%

15.2%

4.0%

CSY

TKS

15.2%

24.2%

16.0%

16.4%

15.0%

3.8%

7.3%

4.4%

5.2%

4.0%

2.3%

2.0%

6.1%

2.6%

3.1%

2.3%

7.3%

6.1%

5.8%

9.3%

5.8%

3.6%

3.2%

7.4%

3.2%

45.1%

45.4%

38.9%

10.5%

9.5%

11.2%

2.3%

2.9%

5.8%

MAL

3.5%

3.2%

5.2%

44.4%

39.5%

38.9%

39.1%

9.8%

9.9%

9.5%

10.5%

9.6%

22.1%

21.0%

21.2%

21.6%

22.4%

21.3%

27.3%

21.2%

TKS

1.7%

1.5%

1.7%

1.5%

2.5%

APD

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

1.8%

0.3%

0.0%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

CSY

21.3%

Initials: [A1] [A3]

Martin Lee of DP Cyd Ho of Frontier

ML CH

[A2] [A4]

Yeung Sum of DP Jasper Tsang of DAB

YS JT

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

AppendixII-11

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Frequency Tables

Table 12 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Audrey Eu and another one dropped out).

Candidate / List

Hong Kong Island

MAL

CSY

25.8%

25.5%

23.9%

7.9%

7.3% 6.3%

TKS

24.2%

35.0%

27.9%

24.2%

7.3%

10.1%

10.8%

7.6%

6.1%

8.5%

8.8%

6.3%

6.1%

4.7%

8.8%

4.5%

3.6%

4.1%

8.1%

3.3%

3.8%

5.1%

3.6%

25.6%

21.8%

21.2%

7.9%

7.6%

4.5%

4.9%

4.5%

MAL

3.9%

3.3%

4.2%

CSY

3.6%

4.3%

3.9%

6.3%

4.8%

27.0%

23.4%

23.0%

21.8%

22.1%

28.2%

27.1%

28.2%

27.2%

26.7%

27.3%

29.3%

TKS

1.8%

2.1%

1.8%

1.5%

1.6%

2.7%

APD

1.8%

1.5%

1.8%

1.5%

1.8%

2.8%

2.0%

1.5%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

AE 27.2%

Initials: [A1]

Martin Lee of DP

[A2]

Yeung Sum of DP

[A3]

Cyd Ho of Frontier

[A4]

Jasper Tsang of DAB

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

AppendixII-12

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Frequency Tables

Table 13 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Alan Leong and another one dropped out).

Candidate / List

Hong Kong Island

MAL

CSY

17.0%

16.3%

15.9%

16.0%

4.7%

4.3%

4.4%

2.9%

TKS

35.0%

17.3%

15.9%

4.4%

10.1%

5.9%

4.6%

2.6%

8.5%

3.4%

2.9%

5.5%

5.8%

4.7%

7.4%

4.3%

3.2%

4.1%

7.4%

2.9%

3.8%

3.7%

2.9%

51.7%

44.9%

12.5%

3.2%

3.5%

4.4%

MAL

3.2%

2.9%

3.8%

CSY

2.9%

5.5%

4.1%

50.6%

46.3%

45.1%

44.6%

44.8%

45.1%

20.9%

21.1%

21.5%

21.2%

20.6%

21.2%

29.3%

TKS

1.7%

1.5%

1.7%

1.4%

1.5%

1.6%

2.5%

APD

0.6%

0.3%

0.6%

0.3%

2.8%

0.6%

0.3%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

AL 21.2%

Initials: [A1]

Martin Lee of DP

[A2]

Yeung Sum of DP

[A3]

Cyd Ho of Frontier

[A4]

Jasper Tsang of DAB

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

AppendixII-13

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Frequency Tables

Table 14 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Rita Fan and another one dropped out).

Candidate / List

Hong Kong Island

MAL

CSY

TKS

18.0%

16.3%

16.5%

16.4%

27.9%

17.3%

16.6%

6.1%

5.3%

5.9%

5.2%

10.8%

5.9%

5.5%

3.1%

2.8%

3.1%

8.8%

3.4%

9.3%

8.8%

7.4%

8.1%

7.4%

7.1%

5.1%

3.7%

4.0%

51.7%

45.2%

13.8%

3.1%

3.7%

7.3%

7.7%

7.4%

MAL

7.3%

7.1%

8.7%

CSY

3.7%

4.0%

7.5%

6.8%

50.8%

46.1%

45.1%

45.3%

45.1%

45.4%

10.7%

10.8%

10.4%

10.9%

10.8%

10.5%

25.6%

TKS

2.8%

2.5%

3.1%

2.5%

2.7%

2.5%

APD

0.6%

0.3%

0.6%

0.3%

2.0%

0.6%

0.3%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

10.5%

Initials: [A1]

Martin Lee of DP

[A2]

Yeung Sum of DP

[A3]

Cyd Ho of Frontier

[A4]

Jasper Tsang of DAB

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

AppendixII-14

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Frequency Tables

Table 15 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Tsang Kin Shing and another one dropped out).

Candidate / List

Hong Kong Island

MAL

CSY

16.0%

14.9%

15.0%

24.2%

15.9%

16.6%

4.3%

4.0%

7.6%

4.6%

5.5%

2.6%

2.3%

6.3%

2.9%

3.4%

5.5%

5.8%

4.5%

4.3%

7.4%

3.2%

3.3%

2.9%

7.1%

3.6%

2.9%

4.0%

44.9%

45.2%

11.5%

2.6%

3.2%

4.3%

4.4%

4.3%

MAL

3.2%

2.9%

3.7%

CSY

2.9%

5.5%

4.0%

44.5%

39.5%

38.8%

38.5%

38.6%

38.9%

9.8%

9.9%

9.5%

21.8%

21.0%

21.2%

21.8%

21.3%

20.7%

21.3%

27.2%

21.2%

APD

0.3%

0.0%

0.6%

0.0%

1.5%

0.3%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

TKS

10.5%

TKS

Initials: [A1]

Martin Lee of DP

[A2]

Yeung Sum of DP

[A3]

Cyd Ho of Frontier

[A4]

Jasper Tsang of DAB

[A5]

Ma Lik of DAB

MAL

[A6]

Choy So-yuk of DAB

CSY

[A7]

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

[A8]

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

[A9]

Independent Rita Fan

[A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing

TKS

[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp

APC

[A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp

APD

AppendixII-15

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 16

Frequency Tables

If [choice in Q1] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you

vote for？(Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining candidates or parties. Only one answer is allowed.)

Frequency 60

Percentage of respondents （Base=348） 17.3

Yeung Sum of DP

12.8

8.4

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

12.2

8.0

Martin Lee of DP

10.1

6.6

Independent Rita Fan

8.1

5.3

Cyd Ho of Frontier

6.8

4.5

Ma Lik of DAB

5.6

3.7

Jasper Tsang of DAB

5.2

3.4

Choy So-yuk of DAB

4.8

3.1

Any list from the pro-democratic camp

2.5

1.6

Independent Tsang Kin Shing

1.6

1.1

Any list from the pro-China camp

0.2

vote for a specific candidate Cast blank votes/Elect nobody

4 13

1.1 3.7

0.7 2.4

Won’t vote

4.8

3.2

Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say

3.2

2.1

348

100.0

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

Percentage of total sample （Base=532） 11.3

Depend on the overall team-up and will not

Total Missing

AppendixII-16

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 17

Frequency Tables

If [choice in Q2] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you vote

for？(Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining 10 candidates. Only one answer is allowed.)

Martin Lee of DP

Percentage of respondents （Base=289） 16.8

Yeung Sum of DP

14.4

7.8

Alan Leong of A45 Concern Gp

11.9

6.5

Cyd Ho of Frontier

10.0

5.5

Choy So-yuk of DAB

6.8

3.7

Independent Rita Fan

6.1

3.3

Audrey Eu of A45 Concern Gp

5.8

3.2

Jasper Tsang of DAB

3.2

1.7

Ma Lik of DAB

3.2

1.7

Any list from the pro-democratic camp

2.5

1.4

Independent Tsang Kin Shing

1.0

0.5

Any list from the pro-China camp

1.0

0.5

1.2

0.6

Cast blank votes / Elect nobody

3.7

2.0

Won’t vote

7.3

4.0

Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say

5.3

2.9

289

100.0

Frequency

Percentage of total sample （Base=532） 9.1

Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate

Total Missing

AppendixII-17

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 18

Frequency Tables

If [Interviewer to read out the first five choices ascendingly] and some independent

candidates took part in the election in your district, which parties or candidates you would never support? (Multiple answers are allowed, interviewers to probe if there are any other answers)

Frequency 221

Percentage of responses （Base: 635 responses out of 516 respondents） 34.9

12.1

14.9

10.0

12.3

Frontier

4.3

5.3

A45 Concern Group

3.7

4.5

No party affiliation / Independent

2.6

3.2

Support nobody

2.7

3.4

173

27.3

33.5

2.5

3.0

Total

635

100.0

Missing

DAB

Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say

Percentage of respondents （Base=516） 42.9

Won’t answer hypothetical question / Actual situation is different

Table 19

[Only ask those who supported Democratic Party or pro-democratic camp in Q1-Q3]

If Democratic Party and pro-democratic camp took part in the election in one list, would you vote for this list?

Yes

206

Percentage of respondents （Base=322） 64.0

17.3

10.5

Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say

18.7

11.3

Total

322

100.0

Missing

Frequency

AppendixII-18

Percentage of total sample （Base=532） 38.7

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 20

Frequency Tables

Will you vote for a list, no matter you like or dislike the candidates on the list, for the

purpose of supporting the camp which appeals to you?

Frequency

Percentage

Yes

117

36.2

183

56.8

7.0

Total

323

100.0

Missing

Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say

Table 21 If the camp you support gave out some instructions to the electorates on the allocation of votes, such as casting your vote to another list belonging to the same camp according to your ID card number or birthday, would you follow?

Frequency

Percentage

Yes

20.9

226

70.6

8.5

Total

320

100.0

Missing

Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say

Table 22

Are you a registered voter?

Frequency

Percentage

440

83.3

16.7

Total

528

100.0

Missing

Yes (including those who have just registered) No

AppendixII-19

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Frequency Tables

Table 23【Only for registered voters】When did you register as a voter？【Deduced from the year, input exact number】

Frequency

Percentage of respondents （Base=436）

Percentage of total sample （Base=532）

This year, 2004, which means no 41 )

9.4 )

7.7 )

more than 2 years

25 )

5.7 )

4.6 )

No more than 3 years No more than 4 years

11 )

2.4 )

2.0 )

30 ) 107

7.0 ) 24.4

5.7 ) 20.0

more than 1 year Last year, 2003, which means no

4 years or above

122

28.0

23.0

Forgotten

208

47.6

39.0

Total

436

100.0

Missing

Table 24

【Only for registered voters】Did you vote in the District Council Election last

November?

Frequency Yes

254

Percentage of respondents （Base=438） 57.8

Percentage of total sample （Base=532） 47.7

No: because the councillors were 39 )

8.9 )

7.3 )

No: can vote but has not voted

94 )

21.4 )

17.6 )

No: not yet registered at that time

48 ) 181

10.9 ) 41.2

automatically elected

1.0

Total

438

100.0

Missing

Forgotten

AppendixII-20

9.0 ) 33.9 0.8

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 25

Frequency Tables

【Only for registered voters】Have you ever voted in the past Council elections in

different tiers? Percentage of respondents （Base= 439） 80.9

Frequency 355

Yes

Percentage of total sample （Base=532） 66.8

No: not yet registered at that time

40 )

9.1 )

7.5 )

No: can vote but has not voted

35 ) 74

7.9 ) 16.9

6.5 ) 14.0

Forgotten

2.2

1.8

Total

439

100.0

Missing

Table 26

【Only for registered voters】Will you vote in the coming Legislative Council Election

in September？

Frequency 257 )

Definitely yes Most likely yes

103 ) 36

Most likely no

Definitely no

16 ) 23

Percentage of respondents （Base=439） 58.6 ) 23.4 ) 82.0

Percentage of total sample （Base=532） 48.4 ) 19.3 ) 67.7

1.4 )

1.2 )

3.7 ) 5.2

3.1 ) 4.3

Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard 56

12.8

Total

439

100.0

Miss

to say

Table 27

10.5

Did you participate in the July 1 rally last year？

Frequency

Percentage

Yes

123

23.2

406

76.5

0.3

Total

531

100.0

Missing

Don’t know/Forgotten

AppendixII-21

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Table 28

Frequency Tables

Did you participate in the January 1 rally？ Frequency

Percentage

Yes

3.9

509

95.9

0.1

Total

531

100.0

Missing

Don’t know / Forgotten

AppendixII-22

Appendix 3 Survey Questionnaire

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG 香港大學 PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME 民意研究計劃 Tel 電話：(852) 2859 2988 Fax 傳真：(852) 2517 6951 Website 網址：http: / / hkupop.hku.hk Address: Room 804, Meng Wah Complex, the University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong 地址：香港薄扶林道香港大學明華綜合大樓 804 室

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME & CIVIC EXCHANGE

JOINTLY CONDUCT

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election： 1st Round Survey on Individual Constituency 【Hong Kong Island】

Questionnaire (Final)

24 May 2004 The Public Opinion Programme (POP) was established in June 1991 at the Social Sciences Research Centre under the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Hong Kong. It was transferred to the Journalism and Media Studies Centre of the University of Hong Kong in May 2000, and then back to the Faculty of Social Sciences in January 2002. 香港大學民意研究計劃在一九九一年六月成立，初時隸屬香港大學社會科學學院的社會科學研究中心，二零零零年五月轉往香港大學新聞及傳媒研究中心，二零零二年一月再轉回香港大學社會科學學院管轄。

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Section I

Survey Questionnaire

Self Introduction

Good evening, I am an interviewer from the Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong. We would like to ask for your opinion regarding the Legislative Council elections which would only take you a couple of minutes. Please be rested assured that the information you provide will be kept strictly confidential.

[S1] Which district are you living in? Wanchai Eastern Central / Western Southern Sai Kung (skip to end) Shatin (skip to end) North (skip to end) Tai Po (skip to end) Kwun Tong (skip to end) Kowloon City (skip to end) Wong Tai Sin (skip to end) Mongkok (skip to end) Sham Shui Po (skip to end) Yau Tsim (skip to end) Islands (skip to end) Tsuen Wan (skip to end) Kwai Tsing (skip to end) Tuen Mun (skip to end) Yuen Long (skip to end) Refuse to answer (skip to end) [S2] How many members are there in your household？【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer AppendixIII-1

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Section II

Survey Questionnaire

Selection of Respondent

[S3] How many members are there in your household aged 18 or above at this moment? (Interviewers can directly ask if there is only one qualified respondent at home. If so, interviewer can interview him / her at once.) Since we need to conduct random sampling, if there is more than one available, I would like to speak to the one who will have his / her birthday next. (Interviewer can illustrate with examples: “that means is there anyone who will have his / her birthday in June or the coming three months?”)【If there is no household member aged 18 or above, interview can be terminated.】 Yes No Interview completed. Thank you for your cooperation. Goodbye. (Skip to end)

Section III General Questions [Q1] If the Legislative Council elections were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, which candidate or list would you vote for？(Interviewers read out the names of candidates who would stand for elections, A11 and A12. The random order of the names would be displayed on the computer. Only one answer is allowed. ) [A1] [A2] [A3]

Martin Lee of Democratic Party Yeung Sum of Democratic Party Cyd Ho of Frontier

[A4] Jasper Tsang of Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong [A5] Ma Lik of Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong [A6] Choy So-yuk of Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong [A7] Audrey Eu of Article 45 Concern Group [A8] Alan Leong of Article 45 Concern Group [A9] Independent Rita Fan [A10] Independent Tsang Kin Shing [A11] Any list from the pro-democratic camp (skip to Q4) [A12] Any list from the pro-China camp (skip to Q4) Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate (skip to Q4) Cast blank votes / Elect nobody (skip to Q6) Won’t vote (skip to Q6) Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say (skip to Q6) Refuse to answer (skip to Q6) AppendixIII-2

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Survey Questionnaire

[Q2] If [choice in Q1] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you vote for？ (Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining candidates or parties. Only one answer is allowed.) Any list from the pro-democratic camp (skip to Q4) Any list from the pro-China camp (skip to Q4) Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate (skip to Q4) Cast blank votes / Elect nobody (skip to Q6) Won’t vote (skip to Q6) Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say (skip to Q6) Refuse to answer (skip to Q6) [Q3] If [choice in Q2] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you vote for？ (Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining 10 candidates. Only one answer is allowed.) Any list from the pro-democratic camp Any list from the pro-China camp Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate Cast blank votes / Elect nobody (skip to Q6) Won’t vote (skip to Q6) Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say (skip to Q6) Refuse to answer (skip to Q6) [Q4] Will you vote for a list, no matter you like or dislike the candidates on the list, for the purpose of supporting the camp which appeals to you? Yes No Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q5] If the camp you support gave out some instructions to the electorates on the allocation of votes, such as casting your vote to another list belonging to the same camp according to your ID card number or birthday, would you follow? Yes No AppendixIII-3

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Survey Questionnaire

Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q6] If candidates from Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, Democratic Party, Liberal Party, Frontier, Article 45 Concern Group (random order determined by computer) took part in the election in your district, which parties or candidates you would never support? (Multiple answers are allowed, interviewers to probe if there are any other answers) Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong Democratic Party Liberal Party Frontier Article 45 Concern Group No party affiliation / Independent Support nobody Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Won’t answer hypothetical question / Actual situation is different Refuse to answer [Q7] [Only ask those who supported Democratic Party or pro-democratic camp in Q1-Q3] If Democratic Party and pro-democratic camp took part in the election in one list, would you vote for this list? Yes No Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer

AppendixIII-4

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Section IV

[Q8]

Survey Questionnaire

Political Inclination

Are you a registered voter?

Yes (including those who have just registered) No (skip to Q13) Refuse to answer (skip to Q13) [Q9] 【Only for registered voters】When did you register as a voter？【Deduced from the year, input exact number】 0＝this year，2004，which means no more than 1 year 1＝last year，2003，which means no more than 2 years 2＝2 years or above 3＝3 years or above，and so on _____ Forgotten Refuse to answer [Q10] 【Only for registered voters】Did you vote in the District Council Election last November? Yes (skip to Q12) No: because the councillors were automatically elected No: can vote but has not voted No: not yet registered at that time Forgotten Refuse to answer

[Q11] 【Only for registered voters】Have you ever voted in the past Council elections in different tiers? Yes No: not yet registered No: already registered Forgotten Refuse to answer AppendixIII-5

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Survey Questionnaire

[Q12] 【Only for registered voters】Will you vote in the coming Legislative Council Election in September？ Definitely yes Most likely yes Most likely no Definitely no Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q13] Did you participate in the July 1 rally last year？ Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten Refuse to answer [Q14] Did you participate in the January 1 rally？ Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten Refuse to answer

AppendixIII-6

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Survey Questionnaire

Section V Personal Particulars I'd like to know some of your personal particulars in order to facilitate our analysis. [DM1] Gender Male Female [DM2] Age【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer [DM3] Education Attainment Primary or below Secondary Matriculated Tertiary, non-degree course Tertiary, degree course Postgraduate or above Refuse to answer

[D4] The type of ownership of your house is: Self-purchased, or Rent? Refuse to answer [D5] House type Public housing estate Housing Authority subsidized sale flats Housing Society subsidized sale flats Private housing Village: villas / bungalows / modern village houses Village: simple stone structures / traditional village houses Public temporary housing Private temporary housing AppendixIII-7

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituencyă&#x20AC;?HK Islandă&#x20AC;&#x2018;

Survey Questionnaire

Staff quarters Others Refuse to answer [DM6] Occupation Managers and administrators Professionals Associate professionals Clerks Service workers and shop sales workers Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Craft and related workers Plant and machine operators and assemblers Non-skilled workers Students Housewives Unclassified Others (unemployed, retired, etc.) Refuse to answer [DM7] Which class do you consider your family belongs to? options, only one answer is allowed) Upper class Upper-middle class Middle class Lower-middle class Lower class or grassroots Don't know / hard to say Refuse to answer [DM8] Is your family in negative equity? Yes No Don't know / hard to say Refuse to answer

AppendixIII-8

(Interviewer to read out the first 5

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【HK Island】

Survey Questionnaire

[DM9] Place of birth Hong Kong (skip to end) Mainland China Taiwan (skip to end) Macau (skip to end) Southeast Asia (e.g. Malaysia、Indonesia、Vietnam)(skip to end) Canada (skip to end) America (skip to end) Australia (skip to end) England (skip to end) Others (skip to end) Don’t know (skip to end) Refuse to answer (skip to end)

[DM10] 【Only for those born in mainland China】How long have you been living in Hong Kong？【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer

AppendixIII-9