THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION by Civic Exchange

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME (POP)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency 【Kowloon West】

SPONSORED BY CIVIC EXCHANGE

SURVEY REPORT

Compiled by Chung Ting-Yiu Robert, Pang Ka-Lai Karie and Lam Mo-Chun Calvin

JULY 2004

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page

SURVEY REPORT

1-6

Preamble

Research Method

Key Findings

APPENDICES Appendix 1: Demographic Profile of Respondents Appendix 2: Frequency Tables Appendix 3: Survey Questionnaire

Survey Report

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME (POP) CIVIC EXCHANGE JOINTLY CONDUCT

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency 【Kowloon West】 SURVEY REPORT Research Team Members Project Director Project Manager Project Executive Data Analyst Copy Editor

: : : : :

CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert PANG Ka-Lai Karie LAM Mo-Chun Calvin TSOI Pui-Ching Tony CHUNG Sin-Yan Yennice

JULY 2004 CONTACT INFORMATION Date of survey

24 – 27 June 2004

Survey method

Telephone survey with interviewers.

Target population

Sampling method

Weighting method

Cantonese-speaking population of Hong Kong aged 18 or above, and currently residing in Kowloon West Standard POP telephone sampling method was used. Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one subject had been available, the one who had his/her birthday next was selected. The data reported have been adjusted according to the gender, age and living district distributions of the Hong Kong population as reported in the 2001 Population Census.

Sample size

502 successful cases

Response Rate

71.6%

Std sampling error

Less than 2.2%

Everything in this publication is the work of individual researchers, and does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert is responsible for the work of the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong.

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Survey Report

Preamble

1.1

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) was established in June 1991 to collect and study public opinion on topics that could be of interest to academics, journalists, policy-makers, and the general public. POP was at first under the Social Sciences Research Centre, a unit under the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Hong Kong, and was transferred to the Journalism and Media Studies Centre in the University of Hong Kong in May 2000. In January 2002, it was transferred back to the Faculty of Social Sciences in the University of Hong Kong. Since its establishment, POP has been conducting opinion researches on various social and political issues and providing quality survey services to a wide range of public and subvented bodies provided that they agreed to publicizing the findings to the general public, as well as allowing the research team to design and conduct the research independently, including the sampling method, questionnaire design, fieldwork supervision, data analysis, and report writing.

1.2

In May 2004, Civic Exchange commissioned the POP Team to conduct a series of public opinion surveys on the 2004 Legislative Council direct election. Results of the first geographical constituency survey, i.e. Hong Kong Island, have already been released earlier. As the second round of survey, Kowloon West and New Territories East Constituencies were studied in late June, but only the results of the former will be discussed in this report. Same as other geographical constituencies, the main areas of investigation of this survey are as follows: i. ii. iii.

1.3

Kowloon West residents’ voting inclination; Kowloon West voters’ voting behaviour and propensity to vote; Kowloon West residents’ participation in political activities.

The questionnaire was designed independently by the POP Team after consultation with the client, whilst fieldwork operations and data analysis were also conducted independently by the POP Team. In order to maintain neutrality, the POP Team did not provide advisory or consultative services of any kind apart form data interpretations and analyses.

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Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituencyă&#x20AC;?Kowloon Westă&#x20AC;&#x2018;

Survey Report

Research Method

2.1

Random telephone survey with interviewers under strict supervision was adopted. To minimize sampling bias, telephone numbers were first drawn randomly from the residential telephone directories as "seed numbers", from which another set of numbers was generated using the "plus/minus one/two" method, in order to capture the unlisted numbers. Duplicated numbers were then filtered, and the remaining numbers were mixed in random order to produce the final telephone sample.

2.2

The target population of this survey was Cantonese-speaking population of Hong Kong aged 18 or above, who was currently residing in Kowloon West. When telephone contact was successfully established with a target household, one person aged 18 or above was selected. If more than one subject had been available, selection was made using the "next birthday rule" which selected the person who had his/her birthday next from all those present.

2.3

To achieve higher operation efficiency, during the course of this survey fieldwork, the research team had combined the questionnaires for two different geographical constituencies, i.e. Kowloon West and New Territories East, and apportioned respondents qualified for either part upon confirmation of their living district. Needless to say, only the relevant set of questions would be asked for each respondent. Theoretically, such arrangement could help reduce the wastage rate as compared to using two separate instruments, with each targeting at residents of one constituency only. Hence, the contact information described below was based on the combined sample for both constituencies.

2.4

Telephone interviews were conducted from 24 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 27 June 2004. A total of 1,009 qualified respondents were successfully interviewed, while the valid sample size for Kowloon West was 502. The overall response rate of this survey was 71.6% (Table 1 Appendix II), and the standard sampling error based on this sample was less than 2.2 percentage points. In other words, the sampling error for all percentages was less than plus/minus 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level.

2.5

As shown in Table 2, among the 5,769 telephone numbers sampled for the survey, 2,078 were confirmed ineligible, among them 113 were fax or data lines, 852 were invalid telephone numbers, 26 were call-forwarding numbers, while another 175 were non-residential numbers. Besides, 254 of them were invalidated due to special technological reasons, while 658 cases were voided because target respondents were unavailable at the numbers provided, i.e. residents of the other

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Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Survey Report

three geographical constituencies and/or non-adults. 2.6

Meanwhile, a total of 1,846 telephone numbers were invalidated since the research team could not confirm their eligibility. Among them 92 were busy lines and 915 were no-answer calls after making a maximum of 5 times’ recalls. Twenty-one cases were diverted to answering devices while another 128 were blocked. Moreover, 124 cases were treated as unsuccessful because of language problems, while 562 interviews were terminated before the screening question. Four cases were voided for other problems of the line.

2.7

On the other hand, 836 cases were qualified, yet failed to complete the interview. Among them 4 were rejected at the household level, another 8 rejected the interview immediately after their eligibility was confirmed, 767 were unfinished cases with appointment dates beyond the end of fieldwork period. Besides, 42 cases were incomplete due to unexpected termination of interviews, 15 were classified as miscellaneous due to other non-contact problems. And the remaining 1,009 were successful cases (Table 2 in Appendix II).

A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 3

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Survey Report

Key Findings (Please refer to Appendix II for cross-reference of the tables cited.)

3.1

Kowloon West Residents’ Voting Inclination

3.1.1

This survey revealed that, if the Legislative Council election were to be held tomorrow, and the respondents in Kowloon West had the right to vote, of the 12 candidates or lists predetermined by the POP Team, 17% of the respondents said they would cast their votes to James To of Democratic Party, which made him the most popular candidate on the list. The 2nd place fell to Frederick Fung of Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People's Livelihood, obtaining 11% of vote share. Selina Chow of Liberal Party, Jasper Tsang of Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong and Lau Chin-shek of Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions followed closely behind, each attaining around 10% of vote share. Meanwhile, 7% of the respondents would vote for any list from the pro-democracy camp, while 6% of the respondents would vote for Cyd Ho of Civic Act-up. However, as high as one-fifth (20%) claimed they had not decided on their choice of candidate yet. Due to the high sampling error, those obtained less than 5% of vote shares were not discussed here (Table 3a; for the vote shares obtained by each candidate or list after excluding those respondents who failed to give a concrete choice, please refer to Table 3b).

3.1.2

Table 4 shows the reallocations of hypothetical vote shares after teaming up any two of the candidates among the 12 candidates or lists. For instance, if James To teamed up with Eric Wong, both from Democratic Party, their joint vote share would become 25% of those who had expressed their initial inclination towards a certain candidate or camp. Extra caution, however, should be taken when interpreting these figures as the calculation of the joint vote share was based on a mere summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team. In real-life situations, some of the team-ups would be quite unlikely. Also, while people’s voting behaviours are relatively not predictable, the summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team might not accurately reflect the joint vote shares after teaming up.

3.1.3

Respondents were further asked for their best alternatives if their first choices dropped out from the competition. As shown in Table 5, the shaded area

indicates the absence of that specific candidate, while the horizontal-axis and A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 4

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Survey Report

vertical-axis indicate the respondents’ first choice and second choice respectively. When interpreting vertically, the column figures represent the re-distribution of vote shares under each hypothetical drop-out scenario. For instance, the first column of Table 5 shows the vote shares obtained by other candidates if James To dropped out, i.e. Eric Wong would obtain 4% of vote share (a 3-percentage-point increase from the first voting exercise, Table 3b) whereas Cyd Ho would obtain 15% of vote share (an increase of 7 percentage points, Table 3b). 3.1.4

If respondents’ first two choices did not run for the election, what would be the further changes in the vote shares? Table 6 to Table 15 reveal the distribution of votes if two candidates or lists dropped out from the competition, with the shaded area indicating the absence of that specific candidate. Again, figures should be interpreted vertically. To illustrate, the second column of Table 6 gives the vote shares obtained by other candidates if neither James To nor Eric Wong ran for the Kowloon West Constituency. In such case, Cyd Ho would obtain 18% of vote share (a 9-percentage-point increase from the first voting exercise, Table 3b), and Frederick Fung would obtain 23% (an increase of 7 percentage points, Table 3b), so on and so forth.

3.1.5

Put it in another way, if candidates from Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, Democratic Party, Liberal Party, Civic Act-up, Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People's Livelihood, Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions, and some other independent candidates all took part in the election, 33% of the respondents in Kowloon West stated that they would never support Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, 18% would never support Democratic Party and 5% would never support Liberal Party. The corresponding percentages obtained by the other three parties were relatively low, at 3% or below. It is worth noticing that one-third (33%) of the respondents had not yet decided which party or independent candidate they would never support at the interview time (Table 18).

3.1.6

Among the 296 respondents who claimed they would support the Democratic Party or the pro-democracy camp earlier, 55% (or 32% of total sample) of them indicated that if candidates from these two groups ran in the same list, they would still vote for such a list, while 22% (or 13% of total sample) would re-consider and 23% had not decided yet (or 14% of total sample; Table 19).

3.1.7

This survey also found that, in order to support the camp which appealed to them,

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Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Survey Report

40% of these Kowloon West respondents would go for the list of this camp, no matter they liked or disliked the candidates on the list. Meanwhile, 54% would not (Table 20). 3.1.8

As regards the respondents’ reaction to the vote-allocation instructions given out by the camp they supported (such as casting their votes to another list belonging to the same camp according to their ID card number or birthday), 75% of the respondents said that they would not follow such instructions, while 15% would (Table 21).

3.2 Kowloon West Voters’ Voting Behaviour and Propensity to Vote 3.2.1

Of the 385 registered voters captured in this survey（Table 22）, 9% (or 7% of total sample) submitted their registration less than a year ago, while 28% (or 21% of total sample) registered at least four years ago. Besides, as high as 50% (or 38% of total sample) had forgotten when they registered (Table 23).

3.2.2

The survey also found that, 60% (or 46% of total sample) of these voters self-reported that they had voted in the District Council election last November, whilst 38% (or 29% of total sample; Table 24) had not. Besides, 83% (or 63% of total sample) of this sub-group claimed that they had voted in the past Council election in different tiers, 17% (or 13% of total sample) had not (Table 25).

3.2.3

As a snapshot taken two and a half months ahead of the Legislative Council election, the registered voters’ propensity to vote was found to be 77% within the Kowloon West Constituency (or 59% of total sample, Table 26). Nevertheless, this percentage should never be taken as a projection of the actual turnout rate because many people who claimed they would vote at this stage would eventually not vote.

3.3

Kowloon West Residents’ Participation in Political Activities

3.3.1

When being asked whether they had participated in the July 1 rally last year and the January 1 rally this year, 16% and 4% of the respondents in Kowloon West said “yes” respectively (Table 27 and Table 28).

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Appendix 1 Demographic Profile of Respondents

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Respondents’ Profile

Demographic Profile of Respondents

Table 1

Gender

Total

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 224 44.6 278 55.4 502 100.0

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 243 48.3 259 51.7 502 100.0

Total

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 97 21.3 65 14.3 107 23.5 83 18.2 103 22.6 455 100.0

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 91 20.0 99 21.8 97 21.3 64 14.0 104 22.9 455 100.0

Male Female

Table 2

Age

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 or above Missing

Table 3

Education Attainment

Primary or below Secondary Postgraduate or above Total Missing

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 119 24.2 244 49.7 128 26.1 491 100.0 11

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 109 22.2 244 49.8 137 28.0 489 100.0 13

Appendix I-1

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Table 4

The type of ownership of your house is:

Self-purchased, or Rent? Total Missing Table 5

Respondents’ Profile

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 285 59.5 194 40.5 479 100.0 23

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 282 59.0 196 41.0 479 100.0 23

House type

Public housing estate Housing Authority subsidized sale flats Housing Society subsidized sale flats Private housing Staff quarters Others Total Missing

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 130 27.0

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 133 27.5

5.0

4.5

0.4

323 1 2 482

67.0 0.2 0.4

322 1 2 483

66.8 0.3 0.4 100.0

100.0

Appendix I-2

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Table 6

Respondents’ Profile

Occupation Raw sample Frequency Percentage

Professionals and semi-professionals

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage

18.8

104

21.6

101

20.9

108

22.4

Production workers Students

51 36

10.5 7.4

50 32

10.4 6.7

Housewives

19.4

16.7

Total

111 484

22.9 100.0

107 481

22.2 100.0

Missing

Clerk and service workers

Others

Table 7 Which class do you consider your family belongs to? out the first 5 options, only one answer is allowed) Raw sample Frequency Percentage 2 0.4 Upper class 25 5.2 Upper-middle class 167 34.4 Middle class 141 29.1 Lower-middle class 126 26.0 Lower class or grassroots 24 4.9 Don't know / hard to say 485 Total 100.0 Missing

Table 8

(Interviewer to read

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 2 0.3 29 6.0 171 35.2 144 29.7 119 24.5 21 4.4 485 100.0 17

Is your family in negative equity?

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 37 7.6 Yes 437 89.2 No 16 3.3 Don't know / hard to say 490 Total 100.0 Missing

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 40 8.3 434 88.8 14 2.9 489 100.0 13

Appendix I-3

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Table 9

Respondents’ Profile

Place of birth

Hong Kong Mainland China Taiwan Macau Southeast Asia (e.g. Malaysia、Indonesia、

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 274 56.1 197 40.4 1 0.2 11 2.3 5

1.0

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 276 56.7 196 40.1 1 0.1 10 2.0 5

1.1

488 14

100.0

Vietnam) 488 14

Total Missing

100.0

Table 10 【Only for those born in mainland China】How long have you been living in Hong Kong？【Input exact number】

Less than 7 years More than 7 years Forgotten Total Missing

Table 11

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 9 4.7 160 82.9 24 12.4 193 100.0 4

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 9 4.6 159 83.0 24 12.5 192 100.0 4

District of Residence

Kowloon City Mong Kok Shum Shui Po Yau Tsim Total

Raw sample Frequency Percentage 149 29.7 115 22.9 184 36.7 54 10.8 502 100.0

Appendix I-4

Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 188 37.4 96 19.1 174 34.7 44 8.8 502 100.0

Appendix 2 Frequency Tables

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

Part 1 Detailed Breakdown of Contact Information of the Survey and Calculation of Overall Response Rate Table 1

Calculation of overall response rate

Overall Response Rate =

Successful cases Successful cases + Incomplete cases + Refusal cases by eligible respondents ^ + Refusal cases by prorated-eligible respondents*

1,009 1,009 + 42 +12 +562[(1,009 + 42 + 12) / (1,009+ 42 + 12 + 658)]

= 71.6% ^ Including “household-level refusal” and “known respondent refusal”. *Figure obtained by prorata. Table 2

Detailed breakdown of contact information of the survey Frequency

Percentage

2,078

36.1

Respondents’ ineligibility confirmed Fax/ data line Invalid number Call-forwarding/ mobile/ pager number Non-residential number Special technological difficulties No eligible respondents

113 852 26 175 254 658

Respondents’ eligibility not confirmed Line busy No answer Answering device Call-blocking Language problem Interview terminated before the screening question Others

1,846 92 915 21 128 124 562 4

Respondents’ eligibility confirmed, but failed to complete the interview Household-level refusal Known respondent refusal Appointment date beyond the fieldwork period Partial interview Miscellaneous

2.0 14.8 0.5 3.0 4.4 11.4 32.0 1.6 15.9 0.4 2.2 2.1 9.7 0.1 836

4 8 767 42 15

14.6 0.1 0.1 13.3 0.8 0.3

Successful cases

1,009

17.5

Total

5,769

100.0

Appendix II-1

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

Part 2 General Questions

Table 3a

If the Legislative Council elections were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right

to vote, which candidate or list would you vote for？(Interviewers read out the names of candidates who would stand for elections, A11 and A12. The random order of the names would be displayed on the computer. Only one answer is allowed. )

Frequency

Percentage

James To of DP

17.2

Frederick Fung of ADPL

11.0

Selina Chow of LP

9.6

Jasper Tsang of DAB

9.1

Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU

8.7

Any list from the pro-democracy camp

6.8

Cyd Ho of CA

6.0

Any list from the pro-china camp

1.0

Chung Kong Mo of DAB

0.9

Bruce Liu of ADPL

0.8

Eric Wong of DP

0.5

0.6

20 20

4.1 4.1 19.7

Total

98 497

Missing

Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate Cast blank votes / Elect nobody Won’t vote Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say

Appendix II-2

100.0

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Table 3b

Frequency Tables

【Excluding those respondents answered “Depend on the overall team-up and will not

vote for a specific candidate”, “Cast blank votes / Elect nobody” and “Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say”】 If the Legislative Council elections were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, which candidate or list would you vote for？(Interviewers read out the names of candidates who would stand for elections, A11 and A12. The random order of the names would be displayed on the computer. Only one answer is allowed. )

Frequency

Percentage

James To of DP

24.1

Frederick Fung of ADPL

15.3

Selina Chow of LP

13.4

Jasper Tsang of DAB

12.7

Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU

12.1

Any list from the pro-democracy camp

9.5

Cyd Ho of CA

8.3

Any list from the pro-China camp

1.4

Chung Kong Mo of DAB

1.3

Bruce Liu of ADPL

1.2

Eric Wong of DP

0.7

355

100.0

Total

Appendix II-3

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

K o w l o o o n We s t

Table 4 Hypothetical joint vote share (1st choice) attained by potential candidates after teaming up any two. Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS List JT 24.8% 32.4% 39.4% 25.3% 36.2% 37.5% 24.1% 36.8% EW 24.8% 9.0% 16.0% 1.9% 12.8% 14.1% 0.7% 13.4% CH 32.4% 9.0% 23.6% 9.5% 20.4% 21.7% 8.3% 21.0% FF 39.4% 16.0% 23.6% 16.5% 27.4% 28.7% 15.3% 28.0% BL 25.3% 1.9% 9.5% 16.5% 13.3% 14.6% 1.2% 13.9% LCS 36.2% 12.8% 20.4% 27.4% 13.3% 25.5% 12.1% 24.8% SC 37.5% 14.1% 21.7% 28.7% 14.6% 25.5% 13.4% 26.1% JW 24.1% 0.7% 8.3% 15.3% 1.2% 12.1% 13.4% 12.7% JTS 36.8% 13.4% 21.0% 28.0% 13.9% 24.8% 26.1% 12.7% CKM 25.4% 2.0% 9.6% 16.6% 2.5% 13.4% 14.7% 1.3% 14.0% APD 33.6% 10.2% 17.8% 24.8% 10.7% 21.6% 22.9% 9.5% 22.2% APC 25.5% 2.1% 9.7% 16.7% 2.6% 13.5% 14.8% 1.4% 14.1%

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

CKM

APD

APC

25.4% 2.0% 9.6% 16.6% 2.5% 13.4% 14.7% 1.3% 14.0%

33.6% 10.2% 17.8% 24.8% 10.7% 21.6% 22.9% 9.5% 22.2% 10.8%

25.5% 2.1% 9.7% 16.7% 2.6% 13.5% 14.8% 1.4% 14.1% 2.7% 10.9%

10.8% 2.7%

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

10.9%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

* This table is for rough reference only. It must be stated that, the calculation of the joint vote share was based on a mere summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team. In real-life situations, some of the team-ups may be quite unlikely. Also, while people’s voting behaviours are highly unpredictable, the summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team may not necessarily reflect the joint vote shares of those candidates or lists after the team-ups. Appendix II-4

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

K o w l o o o n We s t

Table 5 Vote share obtained by each candidate if the respondents’ first choice dropped out from elections. Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC List 24.2% 27.0% 29.1% 24.4% 28.8% 26.2% JT 4.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% EW 15.3% 8.5% 9.9% 8.5% 9.8% 11.0% CH 19.3% 15.2% 17.5% 15.6% 17.6% 17.2% FF 2.0% 1.1% 1.1% 3.2% 1.2% 1.5% BL 16.5% 12.4% 14.1% 14.5% 12.2% 15.1% LCS 14.5% 13.5% 14.1% 16.0% 13.9% 15.6% SC 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% JW 13.1% 12.7% 13.5% 13.4% 12.7% 13.3% 15.1% JTS 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% CKM 12.8% 9.6% 9.6% 10.5% 9.6% 10.4% 10.5% APD 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% APC

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

JTS

CKM

24.2% 0.6% 8.5% 15.2% 1.1% 12.1% 13.5%

25.1% 0.6% 8.6% 15.7% 1.4% 12.9% 18.3% 0.0%

24.3% 0.6% 8.5% 15.3% 1.1% 12.1% 13.8% 0.0% 13.0%

12.7% 1.1% 9.6% 1.4%

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

6.3% 9.7% 1.4%

9.9% 1.4%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC First choice

Second choice

* Reading method: This table’s horizontal-axis and vertical-axis indicate the respondents’ first choices and second choices respectively, while the shaded area indicates the absence of a specific candidate or a list. In other words, the first column of this table shows the vote shares obtained by other candidates if James To dropped out. (For example, Eric Wong would obtain 4% of vote share and Cyd Ho would obtain 15% of vote share, etc.). Appendix II-5

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

Table 6 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (James To and another one dropped out). Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS List

CKM

K o w l o o o n We s t

5.2%

5.8%

4.5%

5.3%

4.6%

4.5%

21.4%

17.4%

23.4%

21.2%

17.3%

17.5%

17.3%

22.9%

27.7%

25.2%

21.7%

23.1%

21.8%

2.3%

2.6%

2.2%

2.6%

2.2%

22.8%

18.5%

19.8%

18.6%

16.3%

21.8%

16.7%

0.0%

17.7%

22.6%

28.1%

2.3%

5.1%

LCS

20.0%

24.5%

24.1%

18.7%

17.1%

19.0%

21.0%

16.8%

19.1%

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

JTS

14.8%

16.0%

15.9%

14.8%

16.5%

17.5%

14.7%

CKM APD

1.3% 3.9%

1.3% 3.6%

1.4% 5.1%

1.3% 3.5%

1.3% 4.3%

1.3% 3.5%

7.1% 3.6%

3.8%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

15.1%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

* Reading method: The table’s shaded area indicates the absence of a specific candidate or a list. For example, the second column of this table shows the vote shares obtained by other candidates if both James To and Eric Wong dropped out. (For example, Cyd Ho would obtain 17.7% of vote share and Frederick Fung would obtain 22.6% of vote share, etc.). Appendix II-6

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

Table 7 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Eric Wong and another one dropped out). Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS List JT

30.4%

CKM

32.8%

27.4%

32.9%

29.5%

27.2%

28.3%

27.3%

11.1%

9.6%

11.1%

12.5%

9.5%

9.6%

9.5%

17.5%

19.9%

19.3%

17.4%

17.7%

17.1%

1.3%

1.6%

1.3%

1.6%

1.3%

17.4%

13.9%

14.8%

14.0%

15.2%

20.6%

15.6%

0.3%

K o w l o o o n We s t

EW CH

17.7%

22.6%

19.6%

2.3%

1.3%

3.6%

LCS

20.0%

16.1%

16.7%

14.0%

17.1%

15.8%

18.0%

15.6%

17.6%

0.3%

0.7%

JTS

14.8%

15.2%

15.1%

14.3%

15.0%

17.0%

14.2%

CKM

1.3%

7.1%

APD

3.9%

0.0%

0.7%

0.0%

0.7%

0.0%

0.3%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

Appendix II-7

14.6%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

Table 8 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Cyd Ho and another one dropped out). Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS List JT

30.4%

EW K o w l o o o n We s t

CKM

38.3%

30.6%

37.0%

33.2%

30.4%

31.7%

30.5%

0.7%

0.6%

1.0%

0.7%

0.6%

20.1%

23.9%

23.4%

19.6%

20.4%

19.7%

1.3%

1.6%

1.3%

1.6%

1.3%

20.1%

15.8%

16.8%

15.9%

15.8%

21.4%

16.2%

0.0%

5.2%

19.6%

28.1%

1.3%

3.6%

LCS

2.3%

16.1%

19.1%

15.9%

24.5%

15.8%

19.1%

16.2%

18.4%

19.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.7%

JTS

0.0%

15.2%

16.2%

15.3%

16.1%

18.1%

15.2%

CKM

16.0%

1.3%

7.4%

APD

1.3%

0.0%

1.3%

0.0%

1.0%

0.0%

0.3%

APC

3.6%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

Appendix II-8

15.6%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

Table 9 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Frederick Fung and another one dropped out). Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS CKM List

K o w l o o o n We s t

32.8%

38.3%

33.8%

40.6%

36.4%

32.8%

34.2%

32.9%

0.7%

1.0%

0.7%

11.6%

13.5%

14.6%

11.1%

11.4%

11.2%

3.8%

4.4%

3.6%

4.0%

3.6%

21.1%

16.4%

17.4%

16.4%

18.0%

23.8%

18.4%

0.0%

5.8%

21.4%

11.1%

5.1%

3.6%

LCS

24.1%

16.7%

19.1%

16.9%

21.0%

18.0%

19.1%

19.2%

21.5%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.7%

JTS

15.9%

15.1%

16.2%

15.2%

16.3%

19.0%

15.1%

CKM

1.4%

1.3%

1.4%

1.3%

7.4%

APD

5.1%

0.7%

1.3%

1.0%

1.4%

0.7%

1.0%

APC

0.3%

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

Appendix II-9

15.5%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

Table 10 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Bruce Liu and another one dropped out). Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS List

K o w l o o o n We s t

27.4%

CKM

30.6%

33.8%

32.7%

29.8%

27.4%

28.6%

27.5%

0.6%

0.7%

1.0%

0.7%

0.6%

11.6%

11.1%

12.6%

9.6%

9.7%

9.6%

20.3%

19.9%

17.5%

18.2%

17.6%

17.2%

13.7%

14.6%

13.7%

15.6%

21.1%

16.0%

0.0%

4.5%

17.4%

9.6%

22.9%

17.5%

20.1%

LCS

18.7%

14.0%

15.9%

16.9%

16.8%

15.6%

16.2%

19.2%

18.0%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.7%

JTS

14.8%

14.3%

15.3%

15.2%

15.0%

17.2%

14.3%

CKM

1.3%

7.1%

APD

3.5%

0.0%

1.0%

0.7%

0.0%

0.3%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

Appendix II-10

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

14.7%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

Table 11 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Lau Chin Shek and another one dropped out). Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS CKM List

K o w l o o o n We s t

32.9%

37.0%

40.6%

32.7%

36.2%

32.5%

33.8%

32.6%

1.0%

13.5%

11.1%

15.0%

11.0%

11.3%

11.1%

20.3%

23.5%

19.8%

20.9%

19.9%

1.7%

1.3%

1.7%

1.3%

17.5%

23.2%

17.9%

0.0%

5.3%

23.4%

11.1%

27.7%

19.9%

23.9%

2.3%

1.3%

3.8%

19.1%

17.6%

18.4%

21.5%

18.0%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.7%

JTS

16.5%

15.0%

16.1%

16.3%

15.0%

18.8%

14.9%

CKM

1.3%

1.4%

1.3%

1.4%

1.3%

7.6%

APD

4.3%

0.7%

1.0%

1.4%

0.7%

1.4%

0.6%

0.7%

1.0%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

LCS

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

Appendix II-11

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

15.3%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

Table 12 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Selina Chow and another one dropped out). Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS List

K o w l o o o n We s t

29.5%

CKM

33.2%

36.4%

29.8%

36.2%

29.5%

32.6%

29.6%

0.7%

1.0%

0.7%

14.6%

12.6%

15.0%

12.5%

13.2%

12.5%

19.9%

23.5%

19.3%

21.2%

19.7%

1.7%

1.6%

2.8%

1.6%

17.4%

19.1%

17.1%

1.0%

0.3%

4.6%

21.2%

12.5%

25.2%

19.3%

23.4%

2.6%

1.6%

4.4%

LCS

22.8%

17.4%

20.1%

21.1%

17.2%

0.3%

0.7%

JTS

17.5%

17.0%

18.1%

19.0%

17.2%

18.8%

17.0%

CKM

1.3%

1.4%

1.3%

1.4%

1.3%

8.0%

APD

4.3%

0.7%

1.0%

1.4%

0.7%

1.4%

0.7%

1.0%

APC

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.0%

0.7%

0.0%

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

Appendix II-12

17.4%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

K o w l o o o n We s t

Table 13 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (John Wong and another one dropped out). Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS List JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS CKM APD APC

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

27.2%

30.4% 0.6%

32.8% 0.7% 11.1%

27.4% 0.6% 9.6% 17.5%

32.5% 1.0% 11.0% 19.8% 1.3%

4.5% 17.3% 21.7% 2.2% 18.5% 16.3%

9.5% 17.4% 1.3% 13.9% 15.2%

19.6% 1.3% 15.8% 15.8%

3.6% 16.4% 18.0%

13.7% 15.6%

17.5%

14.7% 1.3% 3.5% 0.0%

14.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%

15.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%

15.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3%

14.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%

14.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0%

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

Appendix II-13

29.5% 0.7% 12.5% 19.3% 1.6% 17.4%

17.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0%

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

28.3% 0.6% 9.6% 17.7% 1.6% 14.5% 20.6%

CKM 27.3% 0.6% 9.5% 17.1% 1.3% 13.7% 15.6% 14.6%

7.1% 0.0% 0.0%

0.3% 0.0%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

K o w l o o o n We s t

Table 14 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Jasper Tsang and another one dropped out). Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS List JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS CKM APD APC

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

28.3%

31.7% 0.6%

34.2% 0.7% 11.4%

28.6% 0.6% 9.7% 18.2%

33.8% 1.0% 11.3% 20.9% 1.7%

32.6% 0.7% 13.2% 21.2% 2.8% 19.1%

28.3% 0.6% 9.6% 17.7% 1.6% 14.5% 20.6%

4.5% 17.5% 23.1% 2.6% 19.8% 21.8% 0.0%

9.6% 17.7% 1.6% 14.8% 20.6% 0.3%

20.4% 1.6% 16.8% 21.4% 0.0%

4.0% 17.4% 23.8% 0.0%

14.6% 21.1% 0.0%

23.2% 0.0%

1.0%

7.1% 3.6% 0.0%

7.1% 0.0% 0.0%

7.4% 0.0% 0.0%

7.4% 0.7% 0.3%

7.1% 0.0% 0.0%

7.6% 0.7% 0.0%

8.0% 0.7% 0.7%

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

Appendix II-14

7.1% 0.0% 0.0%

CKM 29.3% 0.7% 10.0% 19.0% 1.7% 15.0% 23.3% 0.0%

0.3% 0.7%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

K o w l o o o n We s t

Table 15 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Chung Kong Mo and another one dropped out). Candidate / JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS CKM List JT EW CH FF BL LCS SC JW JTS CKM APD APC

Initials: [A1] [A3] [A5] [A7] [A9] [A11]

27.3%

30.5% 0.6%

32.9% 0.7% 11.2%

27.5% 0.6% 9.6% 17.6%

32.6% 1.0% 11.1% 19.9% 1.3%

29.6% 0.7% 12.5% 19.7% 1.6% 17.1%

27.3% 0.6% 9.5% 17.1% 1.3% 13.7% 15.6%

4.5% 17.3% 21.8% 2.2% 18.6% 16.7% 0.0% 15.1%

9.5% 17.1% 1.3% 14.0% 15.6% 0.3% 14.6%

19.7% 1.3% 15.9% 16.2% 0.0% 15.6%

3.6% 16.4% 18.4% 0.0% 15.5%

13.7% 16.0% 0.0% 14.7%

17.9% 0.0% 15.3%

0.3% 17.4%

14.6%

3.8% 0.0%

0.3% 0.0%

1.0% 0.3%

0.3% 0.0%

1.0% 0.0%

0.3% 0.0%

James To of DP Cyd Ho of CA Bruce Liu of ADPL Selina Chow of LP Jasper Tsang of DAB Any list from the pro-democracy camp

JT CH BL SC JTS APD

[A2] [A4] [A6] [A8] [A10] [A12]

Appendix II-15

Eric Wong of DP Frederick Fung of ADPL Lau Chin Shek of HKCTU John Wong of LP Chung Kong Mo of DAB Any list from the pro-China camp

29.3% 0.7% 10.0% 19.0% 1.7% 15.0% 23.3% 0.0%

0.3% 0.7%

EW FF LCS JW CKM APC

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Table 16

Frequency Tables

If [choice in Q1] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you vote

for？(Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining candidates or parties. Only one answer is allowed.) Frequency

Percentage of respondents （Base=316）

James To of DP

13.5

8.5

Lau Chin-shek of HKCTU Cyd Ho of CA

41 41

13.0 12.9

8.2 8.1

Selina Chow of LP

11.7

7.4

Frederick Fung of ADPL

11.6

7.3

Chung Kong Mo of DAB

5.6

3.5

Any list from the pro-democracy camp

5.5

3.5

Bruce Liu of ADPL

4.1

2.6

Jasper Tsang of DAB

4.1

2.6

Eric Wong of DP

3.9

2.4

John Wong of LP

0.8

0.5

Any list from the pro-China camp

0.3

0.2

0.1

6 12 13 316

1.9 3.6 7.2 100.0

1.2 2.3 4.5

Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate Cast blank votes/Elect nobody Won’t vote Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say Total Missing

Appendix II-16

Percentage of total sample （Base=502）

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Table 17

Frequency Tables

If [choice in Q2] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you vote

for？(Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining candidates or parties. Only one answer is allowed.)

Frequency

Percentage of respondents （Base=256）

Frederick Fung of ADPL

17.1

8.7

Lau Chin-shek of HKCTU

11.9

6.1

Cyd Ho of CA James To of DP

26 22

10.1 8.7

5.2 4.5

Selina Chow of LP

8.4

4.3

Any list from the pro-democracy camp

3.6

1.8

Jasper Tsang of DAB

3.0

1.5

John Wong of LP

Bruce Liu of ADPL

7 6 5 3

2.7 2.2 2.1 1.3

1.4 1.1 1.1 0.7

Chung Kong Mo of DAB

1.1

0.6

0.3

14 32 23 256

5.5 12.6 9.2 100.0

2.8 6.4 4.7

Eric Wong of DP Any list from the pro-China camp

Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate Cast blank votes/Elect nobody Won’t vote Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say Total Missing

Appendix II-17

Percentage of total sample （Base=502）

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Table 18

Frequency Tables

If [Interviewer to read out the first six choices ascendingly] and some independent

candidates took part in the election in your district, which parties or candidates you would never support? (Multiple answers are allowed, interviewers to probe if there are any other answers)

Frequency

Percentage of responses （Base: 555 responses out of 492 respondents）

164 87 26 17 15 11 17 20 164 33

29.6 15.7 4.7 3.0 2.7 2.0 3.1 3.6 29.5 6.0

555

100.0

DAB DP LP HKCTU ADPL CA No party affiliation / Independent Support nobody Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Won’t answer hypothetical question /

Percentage of respondents （Base=492）

33.4 17.7 5.3 3.4 3.1 2.3 3.5 4.0 33.2 6.8

Actual situation is different Total

Missing

Table 19

[Only ask those who supported Democratic Party or pro-democracy camp in Q1-Q3]

If Democratic Party and pro-democracy camp took part in the election in one list, would you vote for this list?

Yes No Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say Total Missing

Frequency

Percentage of respondents （Base=296）

161 66

54.6 22.4

32.2 13.2

68 296

23.0 100.0

13.5

Appendix II-18

Percentage of total sample （Base=502）

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Table 20

Frequency Tables

Will you vote for a list, no matter you like or dislike the candidates on the list, for the

purpose of supporting the camp which appeals to you?

Frequency

Percentage

98 135

39.5 54.3

Total

15 248

6.2 100.0

Missing

Yes No Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say

Table 21 If the camp you support gave out some instructions to the electorates on the allocation of votes, such as casting your vote to another list belonging to the same camp according to your ID card number or birthday, would you follow?

Frequency

37 185

14.9 75.4

Total

24 246

9.7 100.0

Missing

Yes No Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say

Table 22

Percentage

Are you a registered voter?

Frequency

Percentage

385 115

77.0 23.0

Total

501

100.0

Missing

Yes (including those who have just registered) No

Appendix II-19

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Frequency Tables

Table 23【Only for registered voters】When did you register as a voter？【Deduced from the year, input exact number】

Frequency This year, 2004, which means no more than 1 year Last year, 2003, which means no more than 2 years

4 years or above

Table 24

8.6 )

6.6 )

20 )

5.1 )

3.9 )

Total

192 385

Missing

Forgotten

Percentage of total sample （Base=502）

33 )

18 ) 14 ) 85 107

No more than 3 years No more than 4 years

Percentage of respondents （Base=385）

4.7 ) 3.7 ) 22.2 27.9 50.0 100.0

3.6 ) 2.9 ) 17.0 21.3 38.3

【Only for registered voters】Did you vote in the District Council Election last

November?

Frequency

229

Yes No: because the councillors were automatically elected No: can vote but has not voted No: not yet registered at that time Forgotten Total Missing

12 ) 97 ) 37 ) 146 10 385 0

Appendix II-20

Percentage of respondents （Base=385）

59.5 3.1 ) 25.3 ) 9.6 ) 38.0 2.5 100.0

Percentage of total sample （Base=502）

45.6 2.4 ) 19.4 ) 7.4 ) 29.2 1.9

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Table 25

Frequency Tables

【Only for registered voters】Have you ever voted in the past Council elections in

different tiers? Percentage of respondents （Base= 383）

Frequency

317 41 ) 22 ) 63

Yes No: not yet registered at that time No: can vote but has not voted

Total

3 383

Missing

Forgotten

Table 26

Percentage of total sample （Base=502）

82.7 10.7 ) 5.8 ) 16.5

63.1 8.1 ) 4.5 ) 12.6

0.8 100.0

0.6

【Only for registered voters】Will you vote in the coming Legislative Council Election

in September？

Frequency Definitely yes Most likely yes Most likely no Definitely no Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard

Percentage of total sample （Base=502）

200 ) 97 ) 297

51.9 ) 25.3 ) 77.2

39.9 ) 19.4 ) 59.3

8) 7 ) 15

2.1 ) 1.8 ) 3.9

1.6 ) 1.4 ) 3.0

18.9

Total

385

100.0

Miss

to say

Table 27

Percentage of respondents （Base=385）

14.5

Did you participate in the July 1 rally last year？

Frequency

Percentage

Total

79 420 498

15.8 84.2 100.0

Missing

Yes No

Appendix II-21

Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】

Table 28

Frequency Tables

Did you participate in the January 1 rally？ Frequency

Percentage

20 476

3.9 95.3

Total

4 499

0.8 100.0

Missing

Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten

Appendix II-22

Appendix 3 Survey Questionnaire

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG 香港大學 PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME 民意研究計劃 Tel 電話：(852) 2859 2988 Fax 傳真：(852) 2517 6951 Website 網址：http: / / hkupop.hku.hk Address: Room 804, Meng Wah Complex, the University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong 地址：香港薄扶林道香港大學明華綜合大樓 804 室

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME & CIVIC EXCHANGE

JOINTLY CONDUCT

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election： Survey on Individual Constituency 【Kowloon West】

Questionnaire (Final)

17 June 2004 The Public Opinion Programme (POP) was established in June 1991 at the Social Sciences Research Centre under the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Hong Kong. It was transferred to the Journalism and Media Studies Centre of the University of Hong Kong in May 2000, and then back to the Faculty of Social Sciences in January 2002. 香港大學民意研究計劃在一九九一年六月成立，初時隸屬香港大學社會科學學院的社會科學研究中心，二零零零年五月轉往香港大學新聞及傳媒研究中心，二零零二年一月再轉回香港大學社會科學學院管轄。

Public Opinion Programme, 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on the Preliminary Candidates’ Strength

Section I

Survey Questionnaire

Self Introduction

Good evening, I am an interviewer from the Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong. We would like to ask for your opinion regarding the Legislative Council elections which would only take you a couple of minutes. Please be rested assured that the information you provide will be kept strictly confidential.

[S1] Which district are you living in? Mongkok Sham Shui Po Yau Tsim Kowloon City Wanchai (skip to end) Eastern (skip to end) Central / Western (skip to end) Southern (skip to end) Sai Kung (skip to end) Shatin (skip to end) North (skip to end) Tai Po (skip to end) Kwun Tong (skip to end) Wong Tai Sin (skip to end) Islands (skip to end) Tsuen Wan (skip to end) Kwai Tsing (skip to end) Tuen Mun (skip to end) Yuen Long (skip to end) Refuse to answer (skip to end) [S2] How many members are there in your household？【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer AppendixIII-1

Public Opinion Programme, 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on the Preliminary Candidates’ Strength

Section II

Survey Questionnaire

Selection of Respondent

[S3] How many members are there in your household aged 18 or above at this moment? (Interviewers can directly ask if there is only one qualified respondent at home. If so, interviewer can interview him / her at once.) Since we need to conduct random sampling, if there is more than one available, I would like to speak to the one who will have his / her birthday next. (Interviewer can illustrate with examples: “that means is there anyone who will have his / her birthday in June or the coming three months?”)【If there is no household member aged 18 or above, interview can be terminated.】 Yes No Interview completed. Thank you for your cooperation. Goodbye. (Skip to end)

Section III General Questions [Q1] If the Legislative Council elections were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, which candidate or list would you vote for？(Interviewers read out the names of candidates who would stand for elections, A11 and A12. The random order of the names would be displayed on the computer. Only one answer is allowed. ) [A1] [A2] [A3]

James To of Democratic Party Eric Wong of Democratic Party Cyd Ho of Civic Act-up

[A4] Frederick Fung of Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People's Livelihood [A5] Bruce Liu of Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People's Livelihood [A6] Lau Chin Shek of Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions [A7] Selina Chow of Liberal Party [A8] John Wong of Liberal Party [A9] Jasper Tsang of Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong [A10] Chung Kong Mo of Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong [A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp (skip to Q4) [A12] Any list from the pro-China camp (skip to Q4) Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate (skip to Q4) Cast blank votes / Elect nobody (skip to Q6) Won’t vote (skip to Q6) Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say (skip to Q6) Refuse to answer (skip to Q6) AppendixIII-2

Public Opinion Programme, 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on the Preliminary Candidates’ Strength

Survey Questionnaire

[Q2] If [choice in Q1] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you vote for？ (Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining candidates or parties. Only one answer is allowed.) Any list from the pro-democracy camp (skip to Q4) Any list from the pro-China camp (skip to Q4) Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate (skip to Q4) Cast blank votes / Elect nobody (skip to Q6) Won’t vote (skip to Q6) Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say (skip to Q6) Refuse to answer (skip to Q6) [Q3] If [choice in Q2] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you vote for？ (Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining 10 candidates. Only one answer is allowed.) Any list from the pro-democracy camp Any list from the pro-China camp Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate Cast blank votes / Elect nobody (skip to Q6) Won’t vote (skip to Q6) Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say (skip to Q6) Refuse to answer (skip to Q6) [Q4] Will you vote for a list, no matter you like or dislike the candidates on the list, for the purpose of supporting the camp which appeals to you? Yes No Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q5] If the camp you support gave out some instructions to the electorates on the allocation of votes, such as casting your vote to another list belonging to the same camp according to your ID card number or birthday, would you follow? Yes No AppendixIII-3

Public Opinion Programme, 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on the Preliminary Candidates’ Strength

Survey Questionnaire

Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q6] If candidates from Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, Democratic Party, Liberal Party, Civic Act-up, Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People's Livelihood, Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (random order determined by computer) took part in the election in your district, which parties or candidates you would never support? (Multiple answers are allowed, interviewers to probe if there are any other answers) Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong Democratic Party Liberal Party Civic Act-up Hong Kong Association for Democracy & People's Livelihood Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions No party affiliation / Independent Support nobody Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Won’t answer hypothetical question / Actual situation is different Refuse to answer [Q7] [Only ask those who supported Democratic Party or pro-democracy camp in Q1-Q3] If Democratic Party and pro-democracy camp took part in the election in one list, would you vote for this list? Yes No Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer

AppendixIII-4

Public Opinion Programme, 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on the Preliminary Candidates’ Strength

Section IV

[Q8]

Survey Questionnaire

Political Inclination

Are you a registered voter?

Yes (including those who have just registered) No (skip to Q13) Refuse to answer (skip to Q13) [Q9] 【Only for registered voters】When did you register as a voter？【Deduced from the year, input exact number】 0＝this year，2004，which means no more than 1 year 1＝last year，2003，which means no more than 2 years 2＝2 years or above 3＝3 years or above，and so on _____ Forgotten Refuse to answer [Q10] 【Only for registered voters】Did you vote in the District Council Election last November? Yes (skip to Q12) No: because the councillors were automatically elected No: can vote but has not voted No: not yet registered at that time Forgotten Refuse to answer

[Q11] 【Only for registered voters】Have you ever voted in the past Council elections in different tiers? Yes No: not yet registered No: already registered Forgotten Refuse to answer AppendixIII-5

Public Opinion Programme, 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on the Preliminary Candidates’ Strength

Survey Questionnaire

[Q12] 【Only for registered voters】Will you vote in the coming Legislative Council Election in September？ Definitely yes Most likely yes Most likely no Definitely no Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q13] Did you participate in the July 1 rally last year？ Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten Refuse to answer [Q14] Did you participate in the January 1 rally？ Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten Refuse to answer

AppendixIII-6

Public Opinion Programme, 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on the Preliminary Candidates’ Strength

Survey Questionnaire

Section V Personal Particulars I'd like to know some of your personal particulars in order to facilitate our analysis. [DM1] Gender Male Female [DM2] Age【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer [DM3] Education Attainment Primary or below Secondary Matriculated Tertiary, non-degree course Tertiary, degree course Postgraduate or above Refuse to answer

[D4] The type of ownership of your house is: Self-purchased, or Rent? Refuse to answer

[D5] House type Public housing estate Housing Authority subsidized sale flats Housing Society subsidized sale flats Private housing Village: villas / bungalows / modern village houses Village: simple stone structures / traditional village houses Public temporary housing AppendixIII-7

Public Opinion Programme, 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on the Preliminary Candidatesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Strength

Survey Questionnaire

Private temporary housing Staff quarters Others Refuse to answer [DM6] Occupation Managers and administrators Professionals Associate professionals Clerks Service workers and shop sales workers Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Craft and related workers Plant and machine operators and assemblers Non-skilled workers Students Housewives Unclassified Others (unemployed, retired, etc.) Refuse to answer [DM7] Which class do you consider your family belongs to? options, only one answer is allowed) Upper class Upper-middle class Middle class Lower-middle class Lower class or grassroots Don't know / hard to say Refuse to answer [DM8] Is your family in negative equity? Yes No Don't know / hard to say Refuse to answer

AppendixIII-8

(Interviewer to read out the first 5

Public Opinion Programme, 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on the Preliminary Candidates’ Strength

Survey Questionnaire

[DM9] Place of birth Hong Kong (skip to end) Mainland China Taiwan (skip to end) Macau (skip to end) Southeast Asia (e.g. Malaysia、Indonesia、Vietnam)(skip to end) Canada (skip to end) America (skip to end) Australia (skip to end) England (skip to end) Others (skip to end) Don’t know (skip to end) Refuse to answer (skip to end)

[DM10] 【Only for those born in mainland China】How long have you been living in Hong Kong？【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer

AppendixIII-9