THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME (POP)
2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency 【New Territories West】
SPONSORED BY CIVIC EXCHANGE
SURVEY REPORT
Compiled by Chung Ting-Yiu Robert, Pang Ka-Lai Karie Lam Mo-Chun Calvin and Chan Ka-Man Carmen
JULY 2004
Copyright of this report is held jointly by Civic Exchange and the University of Hong Kong
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page
SURVEY REPORT
1-6
Preamble
1
Research Method
2
Key Findings
4
APPENDICES Appendix 1: Demographic Profile of Respondents Appendix 2: Frequency Tables Appendix 3: Survey Questionnaire
Survey Report
THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME (POP) CIVIC EXCHANGE JOINTLY CONDUCT
2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency �New Territories West】 SURVEY REPORT Research Team Members Project Director Project Manager Project Executive Data Analyst
: : : :
CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert PANG Ka-Lai Karie LAM Mo-Chun Calvin TSOI Pui-Ching Tony
JULY 2004 CONTACT INFORMATION Date of survey
:
9-11 July 2004
Survey method
:
Telephone survey with interviewers.
Target population
:
Sampling method
:
Weighting method
:
Cantonese-speaking population of Hong Kong aged 18 or above, and currently residing in New Territories West Standard POP telephone sampling method was used. Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one subject had been available, the one who had his/her birthday next was selected. The data reported have been adjusted according to the gender, age and living district distributions of the Hong Kong population as reported in the 2001 Population Census.
Sample size
:
507 successful cases
Response Rate
:
71.2%
Std sampling error
:
Less than 2.2%
Everything in this publication is the work of individual researchers, and does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert is responsible for the work of the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong.
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【New Territories West】
Survey Report
1.
Preamble
1.1
The Public Opinion Programme (POP) was established in June 1991 to collect and study public opinion on topics that could be of interest to academics, journalists, policy-makers, and the general public. POP was at first under the Social Sciences Research Centre, a unit under the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Hong Kong, and was transferred to the Journalism and Media Studies Centre in the University of Hong Kong in May 2000. In January 2002, it was transferred back to the Faculty of Social Sciences in the University of Hong Kong. Since its establishment, POP has been conducting opinion researches on various social and political issues and providing quality survey services to a wide range of public and subvented bodies provided that they agreed to publicizing the findings to the general public, as well as allowing the research team to design and conduct the research independently, including the sampling method, questionnaire design, fieldwork supervision, data analysis, and report writing.
1.2
In May 2004, Civic Exchange commissioned the POP Team to conduct a series of public opinion surveys on the 2004 Legislative Council direct election. Results of the first geographical constituency survey, i.e. Hong Kong Island, have already been released earlier. Kowloon West and New Territories East Constituencies were studied in the second survey and the survey was completed in June. As the third round of survey, Kowloon East and New Territories West Constituencies were studied in early July, but only the results of the latter will be discussed in this report. Same as other geographical constituencies, the main areas of investigation of this survey are as follows: i. ii. iii.
1.3
New Territories West residents’ voting inclination; New Territories West voters’ voting behaviour and propensity to vote; New Territories West residents’ participation in political activities.
The questionnaire was designed independently by the POP Team after consultation with the client, whilst fieldwork operations and data analysis were also conducted independently by the POP Team. In order to maintain neutrality, the POP Team did not provide advisory or consultative services of any kind apart form data interpretations and analyses.
A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 1
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency�New Territories West】
Survey Report
2.
Research Method
2.1
Random telephone survey with interviewers under strict supervision was adopted. To minimize sampling bias, telephone numbers were first drawn randomly from the residential telephone directories as "seed numbers", from which another set of numbers was generated using the "plus/minus one/two" method, in order to capture the unlisted numbers. Duplicated numbers were then filtered, and the remaining numbers were mixed in random order to produce the final telephone sample.
2.2
The target population of this survey was Cantonese-speaking population of Hong Kong aged 18 or above, who was currently residing in New Territories West. When telephone contact was successfully established with a target household, one person aged 18 or above was selected. If more than one subject had been available, selection was made using the "next birthday rule" which selected the person who had his/her birthday next from all those present.
2.3
To achieve higher operation efficiency, during the course of this survey fieldwork, the research team had combined the questionnaires for two different geographical constituencies, i.e. Kowloon East and New Territories West, and apportioned respondents qualified for either part upon confirmation of their living district. Needless to say, only the relevant set of questions would be asked for each respondent. Theoretically, such arrangement could help reduce the wastage rate as compared to using two separate instruments, with each targeting at residents of one constituency only. Hence, the contact information described below was based on the combined sample for both constituencies.
2.4
Telephone interviews were conducted from 9 - 11 July 2004. A total of 1,020 qualified respondents were successfully interviewed, while the valid sample size for New Territories West was 507. The overall response rate of this survey was 71.2% (Table 1 in Appendix II), and the standard sampling error based on this sample was less than 2.2 percentage points. In other words, the sampling error for all percentages was less than plus/minus 4 percentage points at 95% confidence level.
2.5
As shown in Table 2, among the 5,041 telephone numbers sampled for the survey, 1,110 were confirmed ineligible, among them 73 were fax or data lines, 564 were invalid telephone numbers, 17 were call-forwarding numbers, while another 64 were non-residential numbers. Besides, 90 of them were invalidated due to special technological reasons, while 302 cases were voided because target respondents were unavailable at the numbers provided, i.e. residents of the other
A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 2
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【New Territories West】
Survey Report
three geographical constituencies and/or non-adults. 2.6
Meanwhile, a total of 1,862 telephone numbers were invalidated since the research team could not confirm their eligibility. Among them 119 were busy lines and 1,038 were no-answer calls after making a maximum of 5 times’ recalls. Twenty cases were diverted to answering devices while another 129 were blocked. Moreover, 75 cases were treated as unsuccessful because of language problems, while 479 interviews were terminated before the screening question. Two cases were voided for other problems of the line.
2.7
On the other hand, 1,049 cases were qualified, yet failed to complete the interview. Among them 3 were rejected at the household level, another one rejected the interview immediately after their eligibility was confirmed, 1,006 were unfinished cases with appointment dates beyond the end of fieldwork period. Besides, 35 cases were incomplete due to unexpected termination of interviews, 4 were classified as miscellaneous due to other non-contact problems. And the remaining 1,020 were successful cases (Table 2 in Appendix II).
A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 3
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【New Territories West】
3.
Survey Report
Key Findings (Please refer to Appendix II for cross-reference of the tables cited.)
3.1
New Territories West Residents’ Voting Inclination
3.1.1
This survey revealed that, if the Legislative Council election were to be held tomorrow, and the respondents in New Territories West had the right to vote, of the 12 candidates or lists predetermined by the POP Team, the vote shares obtained by the first 7 candidates were highly comparable. 12% of the respondents said they would cast their votes to Leung Yiu Chung of Neighbourhood and Workers Service, which made him the most popular candidate on the list. The 2nd place fell to Selina Chow of Liberal Party, obtaining 10% of vote share. Lee Wing Tat of Democratic Party and Tam Yiu Chung of Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong followed closely behind, each attaining 9% of vote share. Meanwhile, another 9% of the respondents claimed they would vote for any list from the pro-democracy camp. Also, 8% of the respondents would vote for Lee Cheuk Yan of Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions and 7% would vote for Albert Ho of Democratic Party. However, as high as 20% of the respondents claimed they had not decided on their choice of candidate yet. Due to the high sampling error, those obtained less than 5% of vote shares were not discussed here (Table 3a; for the vote shares obtained by each candidate or list after excluding those respondents who failed to give a concrete choice, please refer to Table 3b).
3.1.2
Table 4 shows the reallocations of hypothetical vote shares after teaming up any two of the candidates among the 12 candidates or lists. For instance, if Leung Yiu Chung teamed up with Albert Ho, their joint vote share would become 27% of those who had expressed their initial inclination towards a certain candidate or camp. Extra caution, however, should be taken when interpreting these figures as the calculation of the joint vote share was based on a mere summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team. In real-life situations, some of the team-ups would be quite unlikely. Also, while people’s voting behaviours are relatively not predictable, the summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team might not accurately reflect the joint vote shares after teaming up.
3.1.3
Respondents were further asked for their best alternatives if their first choices
A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 4
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【New Territories West】
Survey Report
dropped out from the competition. As shown in Table 5, the shaded area indicates the absence of that specific candidate, while the horizontal-axis and vertical-axis indicate the respondents’ first choice and second choice respectively. When interpreting vertically, the column figures represent the re-distribution of vote shares under each hypothetical drop-out scenario. For instance, the first column of Table 5 shows the vote shares obtained by other candidates if Leung Yiu Chung dropped out, i.e. Albert Ho would obtain 11% of vote share (a 1-percentage-point increase from the first voting exercise, Table 3b) whereas Lee Wing Tat would obtain 15% of vote share (a 2-percentage-point increase from the first voting exercise, Table 3b). 3.1.4
If respondents’ first two choices did not run for the election, what would be the further changes in the vote shares? Table 6 to Table 15 reveal the distribution of votes if two candidates or lists dropped out from the competition, with the shaded area indicating the absence of that specific candidate. Again, figures should be interpreted vertically. To illustrate, the second column of Table 6 gives the vote shares obtained by other candidates if neither Leung Yiu Chung nor Albert Ho ran for the New Territories West Constituency. In such case, Lee Wing Tat would obtain 18% of vote share (a 6-percentage-point increase from the first voting exercise, Table 3b), and Cheung Yin Ting would obtain less than 1% (no change, Table 3b), so on and so forth.
3.1.5
Put it in another way, if candidates from Neighbourhood and Workers Service, Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, Democratic Party, Liberal Party, Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions, Heung Yee Kuk, and some other independent candidates all took part in the election, 31% of the respondents in New Territories West stated that they would never support Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, 20% would never support Democratic Party, 9% would never support Heung Yee Kuk and 7% would never support Liberal Party. The corresponding percentages obtained by the other three parties were relatively low, at 4% or below. It is worth noticing that nearly one-third (31%) of the respondents had not yet decided which party or independent candidate they would never support at the interview time (Table 18).
3.1.6
Among the 274 respondents who claimed they would support the Democratic Party or the pro-democracy camp earlier, 57% (or 31% of total sample) of them indicated that if candidates from these two groups ran in the same list, they would still vote for such a list, while 21% (or 11% of total sample) would re-consider and 23% had not decided yet (or 12% of total sample, Table 19).
A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 5
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【New Territories West】
Survey Report
3.1.7
This survey also found that, in order to support the camp which appealed to them, 34% of these New Territories West respondents would go for the list of this camp, no matter they liked or disliked the candidates on the list. Meanwhile, 60% would not (Table 20).
3.1.8
As regards the respondents’ reaction to the vote-allocation instructions given out by the camp they supported (such as casting their votes to another list belonging to the same camp according to their ID card number or birthday), 73% of the respondents said that they would not follow such instructions, while 16% would (Table 21).
3.2
New Territories West Voters’ Voting Behaviour and Propensity to Vote
3.2.1
Of the 408 registered voters captured in this survey（Table 22）, 8% (or 6% of total sample) submitted their registration less than a year ago, while 28% (or 23% of total sample) registered at least four years ago. Besides, as high as 50% (or 40% of total sample) had forgotten when they registered (Table 23).
3.2.2
The survey also found that, 57% (or 46% of total sample) of these voters self-reported that they had voted in the District Council election last November, whilst 41% (or 33% of total sample, Table 24) had not. Besides, 81% (or 65% of total sample) of this sub-group claimed that they had voted in the past Council election in different tiers, 17% (or 14% of total sample) had not (Table 25).
3.2.3
As a snapshot taken two months ahead of the Legislative Council election, the registered voters’ propensity to vote was found to be 78% within the New Territories West Constituency (or 63% of total sample, Table 26). Nevertheless, this percentage should never be taken as a projection of the actual turnout rate because many people who claimed they would vote at this stage would eventually not vote.
3.3
New Territories West Residents’ Participation in Political Activities
3.3.1
When being asked whether they had participated in last year’s July 1 rally, this year’s January 1 rally and July 1 rally, 15%, 4% and 9% of the respondents in New Territories West said “yes” respectively (Table 27 to Table 29).
A Joint Project of Civic Exchange & HKUPOP 6
Appendix 1 Demographic Profile of Respondents
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Respondents’ Profile
Demographic Profile of Respondents
Table 1
Gender
Total
Raw sample Frequency Percentage 236 46.5 271 53.5 507 100.0
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 249 49.1 258 50.9 507 100.0
Total
Raw sample Frequency Percentage 115 25.1 66 14.4 118 25.7 78 17.0 82 17.9 459 100.0
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 111 24.1 113 24.7 104 22.7 57 12.3 74 16.1 459 100.0
Male Female
Table 2
Age
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 or above Missing
Table 3
48
48
Education Attainment
Primary or below Secondary Postgraduate or above Total Missing
Raw sample Frequency Percentage 119 23.9 264 53.1 114 22.9 497 100.0 10
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 99 19.8 284 56.9 117 23.3 500 100.0 7
AppendixI-1
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Table 4
The type of ownership of your house is:
Self-purchased, or Rent? Total Missing Table 5
Respondents’ Profile
Raw sample Frequency Percentage 281 57.2 210 42.8 491 100.0 16
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 290 58.7 204 41.3 494 100.0 13
House type Raw sample Frequency Percentage 178 36.2 58 11.8
Public housing estate Housing Authority subsidized sale flats Housing Society subsidized 11 sale flats Private housing 221 Village: villas / bungalows / 10 modern village houses Village: simple stone structures / 11 traditional village houses Staff quarters 2 Others 1 Total 492
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 168 33.9 56 11.3
2.2
9
1.9
44.9 2.0
241 9
48.7 1.7
2.2
10
2.0
0.4 0.2 100.0
2 1 495
0.4 0.1 100.0
Missing 15
AppendixI-2
12
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Table 6
Occupation
Professionals and semi-professionals
Raw sample Frequency Percentage 84 17.1
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 95 19.2
114
23.2
125
25.3
65 39 89
13.2 7.9 18.1
64 41 82
13.0 8.2 16.7
Total
100 491
20.4 100.0
86 492
17.5 100.0
Missing
16
Clerk and service workers Production workers Students Housewives Others
15
Table 7 Which class do you consider your family belongs to? out the first 5 options, only one answer is allowed) Raw sample Frequency Percentage Upper-middle class 12 2.4 Middle class 154 31.2 Lower-middle class 161 32.6 Lower class or grassroots 137 27.7 Don't know / hard to say 30 6.1 Total 494 100.0 Missing
Table 8
Respondents’ Profile
13
(Interviewer to read
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 12 2.4 171 34.4 158 31.9 127 25.6 28 5.7 497 100.0 10
Is your family in negative equity?
Raw sample Frequency Percentage Yes 54 10.8 No 437 87.8 Don't know / hard to say 7 1.4 Total 498 100.0 Missing
9
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 53 10.7 441 88.3 5 1.1 499 100.0 8
AppendixI-3
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Table 9
Respondents’ Profile
Place of birth
Hong Kong Mainland China Macau Southeast Asia (e.g. Malaysia、Indonesia、
Raw sample Frequency Percentage 315 63.4 162 32.6 4 0.8 13 2.6
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 324 65.2 157 31.5 3 0.5 11 2.2
Vietnam) Australia
1
0.2
1
0.2
Others
1
0.2
1
0.2
1 497 10
0.2 100.0
1 498 9
0.2 100.0
Don't know Total Missing
Table 10 【Only for those born in mainland China】How long have you been living in Hong Kong？【Input exact number】
Less than 7 years More than 7 years Forgotten Total Missing
Table 11
Raw sample Frequency Percentage 3 1.9 140 88.1 16 10.1 159 100.0 3
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 4 2.5 135 89.5 12 8.1 151 100.0 6
District of Residence
Islands Tsuen Wan Kwai Tsing Tuen Mun Yuen Long Total
Raw sample Frequency Percentage 47 9.3 100 19.7 141 27.8 114 22.5 105 20.7 507 100.0
AppendixI-4
Weighted sample Frequency Percentage 25 5.0 81 15.9 141 27.7 137 27.1 123 24.3 507 100.0
Appendix 2 Frequency Tables
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
Part 1 Detailed Breakdown of Contact Information of the Survey and Calculation of Overall Response Rate Table 1
Calculation of overall response rate
Overall Response Rate =
=
Successful cases Successful cases + Incomplete cases + Refusal cases by eligible respondents ^ + Refusal cases by prorated-eligible respondents*
1,020 1,020 + 35 + 4 +479[(1,020 + 35 + 4) / (1,020+ 35 + 4 + 302)]
= 71.2% ^ Including “household-level refusal” and “known respondent refusal”. *Figure obtained by prorata. Table 2
Detailed breakdown of contact information of the survey Frequency
Respondents’ ineligibility confirmed Fax/ data line Invalid number Call-forwarding/ mobile/ pager number Non-residential number Special technological difficulties No eligible respondents
1,110 73 564 17 64 90 302
Respondents’ eligibility not confirmed Line busy No answer Answering device Call-blocking Language problem Interview terminated before the screening question Others
22.0 1.4 11.2 0.3 1.3 1.8 6.0
1,862 119 1,038 20 129 75 479 2
Respondents’ eligibility confirmed, but failed to complete the interview Household-level refusal Known respondent refusal Appointment date beyond the fieldwork period Partial interview Miscellaneous
Percentage
36.9 2.4 20.6 0.4 2.6 1.5 9.5 0.0
1,049 3 1 1,006 35 4
20.8 0.1 0.0 20.0 0.7 0.1
Successful cases
1,020
20.2
Total
5,041
100.0
AppendixII-1
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
Part 2 General Questions
Table 3a
If the Legislative Council elections were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right
to vote, which candidate or list would you vote for？(Interviewers read out the names of candidates who would stand for elections, A11 and A12. The random order of the names would be displayed on the computer. Only one answer is allowed. )
Frequency
Percentage
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS
58
11.7
Selina Chow of LP
51
10.2
Lee Wing Tat of DP
45
9.0
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
45
8.9
Any list from the pro-democracy camp Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
43
8.7
40
8.1
Albert Ho of DP
37
7.4
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
22
4.5
Any list from the pro-China camp
7
1.4
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
6
1.1
Cheung Yin Tung of DP
1
0.3
Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
1
0.1
Cast blank votes / Elect nobody
17
3.3
Won’t vote
29
5.9
Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say
98
19.6
Total
501
100.0
Missing
6
AppendixII-2
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Table 3b
Frequency Table
【Excluding those respondents answered “Depend on the overall team-up and will not
vote for a specific candidate”, “Cast blank votes / Elect nobody” and “Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say”】 If the Legislative Council elections were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, which candidate or list would you vote for？(Interviewers read out the names of candidates who would stand for elections, A11 and A12. The random order of the names would be displayed on the computer. Only one answer is allowed. )
Frequency
Percentage
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS
58
16.4
Selina Chow of LP
51
14.3
Lee Wing Tat of DP
45
12.6
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
45
12.5
Any list from the pro-democracy camp
43
12.2
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
40
11.3
Albert Ho of DP
37
10.4
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
22
6.3
Any list from the pro-China camp
7
1.9
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
6
1.6
Cheung Yin Tung of DP
1
0.4
Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
1
0.2
Total
357
100.0
Missing
6
AppendixII-3
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
Table 4 Hypothetical joint vote share (1st choice) attained by potential candidates after teaming up any two. Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC List 26.8%
29.0% 23.0%
TST
CHM
APD
APC
16.8% 10.8%
27.7% 21.7%
22.7% 16.7%
30.7% 24.7%
28.9% 22.9%
18.0% 12.0%
16.6% 10.6%
28.6% 22.6%
18.3% 12.3%
13.0%
23.9%
18.9%
26.9%
25.1%
14.2%
12.8%
24.8%
14.5%
11.7%
6.7%
14.7%
12.9%
2.0%
0.6%
12.6%
2.3%
17.6%
25.6%
23.8%
12.9%
11.5%
23.5%
13.2%
20.6%
18.8%
7.9%
6.5%
18.5%
8.2%
26.8%
15.9%
14.5%
26.5%
16.2%
14.1%
12.7%
24.7%
14.4%
1.8%
13.8%
3.5%
12.4%
2.1%
LYC AH
26.8%
LWT
29.0%
23.0%
CYT
16.8%
10.8%
13.0%
LCK
27.7%
21.7%
23.9%
11.7%
AC
22.7%
16.7%
18.9%
6.7%
17.6%
SC
30.7%
24.7%
26.9%
14.7%
25.6%
20.6%
TYC
28.9%
22.9%
25.1%
12.9%
23.8%
18.8%
26.8%
TST
18.0%
12.0%
14.2%
2.0%
12.9%
7.9%
15.9%
14.1%
CHM
16.6%
10.6%
12.8%
0.6%
11.5%
6.5%
14.5%
12.7%
1.8%
APD
28.6%
22.6%
24.8%
12.6%
23.5%
18.5%
26.5%
24.7%
13.8%
12.4%
APC
18.3%
12.3%
14.5%
2.3%
13.2%
8.2%
16.2%
14.4%
3.5%
2.1%
14.1% 14.1%
Initials: [A1] [A3]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS Lee Wing Tat of DP
LYC LWT
[A2] [A4]
Albert Ho of DP Cheung Yin Tung of DP
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AH CYT AC TYC
* This table is for rough reference only. It must be stated that, the calculation of the joint vote share was based on a mere summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team. In real-life situations, some of the team-ups may be quite unlikely. Also, while people’s voting behaviours are highly unpredicatable, the summation of individual vote shares obtained by each candidate or list within a team may not necessarily reflect the joint vote shares of those candidates or lists after the team-ups.
AppendixII-4
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
Table 5 Vote share obtained by each candidate if the respondents’ first choice dropped out from elections. Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC List 17.9%
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
LYC
TYC
TST
CHM
19.3%
16.2%
19.5%
17.5%
18.6%
18.3%
16.5%
16.3%
14.2%
10.6%
13.6%
11.3%
11.8%
11.9%
10.5%
10.4%
12.6%
14.2%
14.1%
13.9%
13.7%
12.8%
12.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
11.8%
12.1%
11.6%
11.6%
11.2%
8.0%
7.0%
6.3%
6.2%
17.4%
14.5%
14.3%
13.1%
12.6%
AH
11.2%
LWT
15.0%
14.8%
CYT
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
LCK
17.0%
13.4%
13.1%
11.2%
AC
7.2%
7.7%
8.0%
6.2%
7.4%
SC
19.0%
15.6%
15.3%
14.3%
14.7%
15.2%
TYC
13.5%
12.8%
12.8%
12.6%
13.3%
13.5%
17.8%
TST
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.8%
4.7%
CHM
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
APD
12.7%
13.6%
13.1%
12.0%
12.7%
12.1%
13.0%
12.5%
12.2%
12.1%
APC
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.3%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Initials: [A1]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS
LYC
[A2]
Albert Ho of DP
AH
[A3]
Lee Wing Tat of DP
LWT
[A4]
Cheung Yin Tung of DP
CYT
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AC TYC
First choice Second choice * Reading method: This table’s horizontal-axis and vertical-axis indicate the respondents’ first choices and second choices respectively, while the shaded area indicates the absence of a specific candidate or a list. In other words, the first column of this table shows the vote shares obtained by other candidates if Leung Yiu Chung dropped out. (For example, Albert Ho would obtain 11.2% of vote share and Lee Wing Tat would obtain 15.0% of vote share, etc.). AppendixII-5
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
Table 6 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Leung Yiu Chung and another one dropped out). Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC TST List
CHM
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
LYC 14.9%
AH
11.5%
17.0%
12.8%
12.8%
13.0%
11.4%
11.2%
14.9%
18.8%
16.9%
17.4%
16.4%
15.2%
15.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
18.0%
19.5%
17.9%
17.5%
17.0%
9.5%
8.2%
7.3%
7.2%
23.3%
19.2%
19.0%
14.0%
13.5%
LWT
18.3%
CYT
0.3%
0.3%
LCK
19.5%
19.1%
17.0%
AC
9.3%
8.8%
7.2%
10.4%
SC
20.6%
18.6%
19.0%
19.9%
20.3%
TYC
13.7%
12.5%
13.5%
15.2%
14.5%
21.0%
TST
1.7%
1.6%
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
3.0%
4.8%
CHM
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
APD
14.2%
12.5%
12.6%
13.7%
12.8%
13.7%
13.3%
12.8%
12.7%
APC
2.0%
11.4%
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Initials: [A1]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS
LYC
[A2]
Albert Ho of DP
AH
[A3]
Lee Wing Tat of DP
LWT
[A4]
Cheung Yin Tung of DP
CYT
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AC TYC
* Reading method: The table’s shaded area indicates the absence of a specific candidate or a list. For example, the second column of this table shows the vote shares obtained by other candidates if both Leung Yiu Chung and Albert Ho dropped out. (For example, Lee Wing Tat would obtain 18.3% of vote share and Cheung Yin Tung would obtain 0.3% of vote share, etc.).
AppendixII-6
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
Table 7 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Albert Ho and another one dropped out). Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC List 22.0%
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
LYC
TST
CHM
17.8%
22.7%
20.1%
20.4%
20.2%
18.1%
17.9%
14.7%
18.4%
17.0%
17.7%
16.1%
14.9%
14.8%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
14.1%
15.0%
14.0%
13.8%
13.4%
9.6%
8.6%
7.8%
7.7%
19.0%
15.8%
15.6%
13.2%
12.8%
AH LWT
18.3%
CYT
0.3%
1.7%
LCK
19.5%
15.9%
13.6%
AC
9.3%
11.0%
7.6%
9.8%
SC
20.6%
17.4%
15.6%
16.4%
16.7%
TYC
13.7%
13.0%
12.7%
13.8%
13.8%
18.0%
TST
1.7%
1.7%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.8%
4.8%
CHM
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
APD
14.2%
14.8%
13.6%
14.4%
13.8%
14.7%
14.3%
13.8%
13.6%
APC
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Initials: [A1]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS
LYC
[A2]
Albert Ho of DP
AH
[A3]
Lee Wing Tat of DP
LWT
[A4]
Cheung Yin Tung of DP
CYT
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AppendixII-7
AC TYC
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
Table 8 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Lee Wing Tat and another one dropped out). Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC TST List LYC AH
22.0% 14.9%
19.3% 14.4%
CHM
23.2% 18.3%
21.3% 16.1%
21.8% 16.7%
21.5% 15.9%
19.5% 14.4%
19.3% 14.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
14.1%
14.3%
13.9%
13.5%
13.1%
10.4%
8.8%
8.0%
8.0%
18.6%
15.5%
15.3%
13.2%
12.8%
LWT CYT
0.3%
1.7%
LCK
19.1%
15.9%
13.0%
AC
8.8%
11.0%
7.9%
9.7%
SC
18.6%
17.4%
15.3%
16.3%
16.4%
TYC
12.5%
13.0%
12.7%
13.5%
13.8%
17.9%
TST
1.6%
1.7%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.8%
4.7%
CHM
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
APD
12.5%
14.8%
13.0%
14.3%
13.5%
14.0%
13.6%
13.2%
13.1%
APC
11.4%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Initials: [A1] [A3]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS Lee Wing Tat of DP
LYC LWT
[A2] [A4]
Albert Ho of DP Cheung Yin Tung of DP
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AppendixII-8
AH CYT AC TYC
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
Table 9 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Cheung Yin Tung and another one dropped out). Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC TST List 17.8%
19.3% 14.4%
CHM
19.5% 13.8%
17.4% 11.5%
18.6% 12.1%
18.3% 12.2%
16.5% 10.8%
16.2% 10.6%
14.1%
14.0%
13.9%
13.6%
12.8%
12.6%
11.8%
12.1%
11.6%
11.6%
11.2%
8.0%
7.0%
6.3%
6.2%
17.4%
14.5%
14.3%
13.1%
12.6%
LYC AH
11.5%
LWT
14.9%
14.7%
LCK
17.0%
13.6%
13.0%
AC
7.2%
7.6%
7.9%
7.3%
SC
19.0%
15.6%
15.3%
14.7%
15.2%
TYC
13.5%
12.7%
12.7%
13.3%
13.5%
17.7%
TST
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
4.9%
CHM
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
APD
12.6%
13.6%
13.0%
12.7%
12.1%
13.0%
12.5%
12.2%
12.0%
APC
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.3%
2.0%
2.0%
CYT
2.2%
Initials: [A1] [A3]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS Lee Wing Tat of DP
LYC LWT
[A2] [A4]
Albert Ho of DP Cheung Yin Tung of DP
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AppendixII-9
AH CYT AC TYC
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
Table 10 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Lee Cheuk Yan and another one dropped out). Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC TST List 22.7%
23.2% 18.3%
CHM
19.5% 13.8%
21.4% 14.6%
22.1% 15.2%
21.8% 15.3%
19.8% 13.8%
19.5% 13.6%
14.1%
16.3%
15.8%
15.3%
14.7%
14.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
9.3%
8.3%
7.5%
7.4%
18.0%
14.9%
14.7%
13.8%
13.3%
LYC AH
17.0%
LWT
18.8%
18.4%
CYT
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
AC
10.4%
9.8%
9.7%
7.3%
SC
19.9%
16.4%
16.3%
14.7%
15.7%
TYC
15.2%
13.8%
13.5%
13.3%
14.3%
18.8%
TST
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
2.3%
2.3%
2.1%
5.0%
CHM
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
APD
13.7%
14.4%
14.3%
12.7%
12.9%
13.7%
13.3%
12.9%
12.7%
APC
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
2.0%
2.0%
LCK
2.3%
Initials: [A1] [A3]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS Lee Wing Tat of DP
LYC LWT
[A2] [A4]
Albert Ho of DP Cheung Yin Tung of DP
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AppendixII-10
AH CYT AC TYC
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
Table 11 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Albert Chan and another one dropped out). Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC List 20.1%
21.3% 16.1%
TST
CHM
17.4% 11.5%
21.4% 14.6%
20.2% 13.0%
20.0% 12.9%
17.9% 11.4%
17.5% 11.3%
14.0%
16.3%
15.7%
15.6%
14.2%
14.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
13.0%
12.4%
12.3%
11.8%
18.5%
15.4%
15.2%
14.0%
13.5%
LYC AH
12.8%
LWT
16.9%
17.0%
CYT
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
LCK
18.0%
14.1%
14.1%
11.8%
SC
20.3%
16.7%
16.4%
15.2%
15.7%
TYC
14.5%
13.8%
13.8%
13.5%
14.3%
19.3%
TST
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
2.3%
2.1%
5.0%
CHM
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
APD
12.8%
13.8%
13.5%
12.1%
12.9%
13.3%
12.6%
12.3%
12.1%
APC
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
2.0%
2.0%
AC
2.3%
Initials: [A1] [A3]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS Lee Wing Tat of DP
LYC LWT
[A2] [A4]
Albert Ho of DP Cheung Yin Tung of DP
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AppendixII-11
AH CYT AC TYC
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
Table 12 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Selina Chow and another one dropped out). Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC List 20.4%
21.8% 16.7%
TST
CHM
18.6% 12.1%
22.1% 15.2%
20.2% 13.0%
22.3% 14.2%
18.9% 12.0%
18.6% 11.8%
13.9%
15.8%
15.7%
15.8%
14.1%
13.9%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
13.0%
13.5%
12.6%
12.1%
9.4%
8.1%
8.0%
18.3%
17.8%
LYC AH
12.8%
LWT
17.4%
17.7%
CYT
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
LCK
19.5%
15.0%
14.3%
12.1%
AC
9.5%
9.6%
10.4%
8.0%
9.3%
TYC
21.0%
18.0%
17.9%
17.7%
18.8%
19.3%
TST
3.0%
1.8%
1.8%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
6.8%
CHM
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
APD
13.7%
14.7%
14.0%
13.0%
13.7%
13.3%
14.2%
13.2%
13.0%
APC
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.9%
2.4%
2.4%
SC 2.1%
Initials: [A1] [A3]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS Lee Wing Tat of DP
LYC LWT
[A2] [A4]
Albert Ho of DP Cheung Yin Tung of DP
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AppendixII-12
AH CYT AC TYC
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
Table 13 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Tam Yiu Chung and another one dropped out). Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC TST List 20.2%
21.5% 15.9%
CHM
18.3% 12.2%
21.8% 15.3%
20.0% 12.9%
22.3% 14.2%
18.8% 12.2%
18.3% 11.9%
13.6%
15.3%
15.6%
15.8%
14.0%
13.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
12.4%
13.5%
12.5%
11.6%
9.4%
7.1%
7.0%
19.6%
17.4%
LYC AH
13.0%
LWT
16.4%
16.1%
CYT
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
LCK
17.9%
14.0%
13.9%
11.6%
AC
8.2%
8.6%
8.8%
7.0%
8.3%
SC
23.3%
19.0%
18.6%
17.4%
18.0%
18.5%
TST
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%
6.8%
CHM
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.3%
APD
13.3%
14.3%
13.6%
12.5%
13.3%
12.6%
14.2%
12.8%
12.5%
APC
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
2.9%
2.4%
2.3%
TYC 4.9%
Initials: [A1] [A3]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS Lee Wing Tat of DP
LYC LWT
[A2] [A4]
Albert Ho of DP Cheung Yin Tung of DP
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AppendixII-13
AH CYT AC TYC
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
Table 14 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Tang Siu Tong and another one dropped out). Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC TST List 18.1%
19.5% 14.4%
CHM
16.5% 10.8%
19.8% 13.8%
17.9% 11.4%
18.9% 12.0%
18.8% 12.2%
16.4% 10.5%
12.8%
14.7%
14.2%
14.1%
14.0%
13.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
12.3%
12.6%
12.5%
11.6%
8.1%
7.1%
6.2%
19.6%
14.4%
LYC AH
11.4%
LWT
15.2%
14.9%
CYT
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
LCK
17.5%
13.8%
13.5%
11.6%
AC
7.3%
7.8%
8.0%
6.3%
7.5%
SC
19.2%
15.8%
15.5%
14.5%
14.9%
15.4%
TYC
14.0%
13.2%
13.2%
13.1%
13.8%
14.0%
18.3%
CHM
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
APD
12.8%
13.8%
13.2%
12.2%
12.9%
12.3%
13.2%
12.8%
12.1%
APC
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
2.0%
13.3%
TST
Initials: [A1] [A3]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS Lee Wing Tat of DP
LYC LWT
[A2] [A4]
Albert Ho of DP Cheung Yin Tung of DP
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AppendixII-14
AH CYT AC TYC
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
N e w Te r r i t o r i e s W e s t
Table 15 Vote share obtained by each candidate if two of them dropped out from elections (Cheung Hok Ming and another one dropped out). Candidate / LYC AH LWT CYT LCK AC SC TYC TST List 17.9%
19.3% 14.2%
16.2% 10.6%
19.5% 13.6%
17.5% 11.3%
18.6% 11.8%
18.3% 11.9%
16.4% 10.5%
12.6%
14.2%
14.1%
13.9%
13.7%
13.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
11.8%
12.1%
11.6%
11.6%
8.0%
7.0%
6.2%
17.4%
14.4%
LYC AH
11.2%
LWT
15.0%
14.8%
CYT
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
LCK
17.0%
13.4%
13.1%
11.2%
AC
7.2%
7.7%
8.0%
6.2%
7.4%
SC
19.0%
15.6%
15.3%
14.3%
14.7%
15.2%
TYC
13.5%
12.8%
12.8%
12.6%
13.3%
13.5%
17.8%
TST
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.1%
4.9%
APD
12.7%
13.6%
13.1%
12.0%
12.7%
12.1%
13.0%
12.5%
12.1%
APC
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.3%
2.0%
CHM
13.3%
CHM
Initials: [A1] [A3]
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS Lee Wing Tat of DP
LYC LWT
[A2] [A4]
Albert Ho of DP Cheung Yin Tung of DP
[A5]
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
LCK
[A6]
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
[A7]
Selina Chow of LP
SC
[A8]
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
[A9]
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
TST
[A10] Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
CHM
APD
[A12] Any list from the pro-China camp
APC
[A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp
AppendixII-15
AH CYT AC TYC
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Table 16
Frequency Table
If [choice in Q1] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you
vote for？(Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining candidates or parties. Only one answer is allowed.)
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS
Frequency 39
Percentage of respondents （Base=306） 12.9
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
37
12.2
7.3
Albert Ho of DP
37
12.0
7.3
Selina Chow of LP
35
11.6
7.0
Lee Wing Tat of DP
28
9.0
5.4
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
24
7.8
4.7
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
23
7.5
4.6
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
13
4.3
2.6
Any list from the pro-democracy camp
11
3.8
2.3
2
0.6
0.4
3
1.0
0.6
7
2.1
1.3
Won’t vote
22
7.1
4.3
Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say
25
8.0
4.8
306
100.0
Any list from the pro-China camp Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate Cast blank votes / Elect nobody
Total Missing
1
AppendixII-16
Percentage of total sample （Base=507） 7.8
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
Table 17 If [choice in Q2] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you vote for？(Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining 8 candidates. Only one answer is allowed.)
Lee Wing Tat of DP
32
Percentage of respondents （Base=233） 13.6
Lee Cheuk Yan of HKCTU
23
9.9
4.5
Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp
22
9.2
4.3
Albert Ho of DP
20
8.5
3.9
Leung Yiu Chung of NWS
19
8.1
3.7
Selina Chow of LP
15
6.5
3.0
Tam Yiu Chung of DAB
12
5.0
2.3
Tang Siu Tong of DAB
9
4.0
1.8
Cheung Yin Tung of DP
6
2.7
1.2
Any list from the pro-democracy camp
3
1.1
0.5
Cheung Hok Ming of HYK
2
1.0
0.5
Any list from the pro-China camp
0
0.2
0.1
5
2.2
1.0
7
3.1
1.4
Won’t vote
38
16.3
7.5
Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say
20
8.6
3.9
233
100.0
Frequency
Percentage of total sample （Base=507） 6.3
Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate Cast blank votes / Elect nobody
Total Missing
3
AppendixII-17
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Table 18
Frequency Table
If [Interviewer to read out the first five choices ascendingly] and some independent
candidates took part in the election in your district, which parties or candidates you would never support? (Multiple answers are allowed, interviewers to probe if there are any other answers)
Frequency 143
Percentage of responses （Base: 542 responses out of 507 respondents） 26.4
93
17.1
19.9
43
8.0
9.2
31
5.6
6.6
17
3.1
3.6
10
1.8
2.1
No party affiliation / Independent
11
2.1
2.5
Support nobody
24
4.4
5.1
142
26.2
30.5
29
5.3
6.2
542
100.0
DAB DP HYK LP HKCTU NWS
Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Won’t answer hypothetical question /
Percentage of respondents （Base=467） 30.7
Actual situation is different Total
40
Missing
Table 19
[Only ask those who supported Democratic Party or pro-democracy camp in Q1-Q3]
If Democratic Party and pro-democracy camp took part in the election in one list, would you vote for this list?
Yes
156
Percentage of respondents （Base=274） 56.9
No
57
20.7
11.2
Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say
62
22.5
12.2
274
100.0
Frequency
Total Missing
6
AppendixII-18
Percentage of total sample （Base=507） 30.8
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Table 20
Frequency Table
Will you vote for a list, no matter you like or dislike the candidates on the list, for the
purpose of supporting the camp which appeals to you?
Frequency
Percentage
Yes
79
33.9
No
141
60.2
14
5.9
Total
235
100.0
Missing
0
Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say
Table 21 If the camp you support gave out some instructions to the electorates on the allocation of votes, such as casting your vote to another list belonging to the same camp according to your ID card number or birthday, would you follow?
Frequency
Percentage
Yes
37
15.9
No
172
73.3
26
10.9
Total
235
100.0
Missing
0
Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard to say
Table 22
Are you a registered voter?
Frequency
Percentage
408
80.6
98
19.4
Total
507
100.0
Missing
0
Yes (including those who have just registered) No
AppendixII-19
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Frequency Table
Table 23 【Only for registered voters】 When did you register as a voter？【Deduced from the year, input exact number】
Frequency
Percentage of respondents （Base=406）
Percentage of total sample （Base=507）
This year, 2004, which means no more than 1 year
31 )
7.7 )
6.2 )
23 ) 15 )
5.6 ) 3.6 )
4.5 ) 2.9 )
Last year, 2003, which means no more than 2 years No more than 3 years No more than 4 years 4 years or above
21 ) 90 115
5.1 ) 22.1 28.2
4.1 ) 17.7 22.6
Forgotten
202
49.7
39.9
Total
406
100.0
Missing
2
Table 24
【Only for registered voters】Did you vote in the District Council Election last
November?
Frequency 231
Yes
Percentage of respondents （Base=408） 56.6
Percentage of total sample （Base=507） 45.6
No: because the councillors were automatically elected No: can vote but has not voted
26 )
6.3 )
110 )
26.9 )
No: not yet registered at that time
32 ) 168
7.8 ) 41.0
Forgotten
10
2.4
Total
408
100.0
Missing
0
AppendixII-20
5.1 ) 21.6 ) 6.3 ) 33.0 1.9
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Table 25
Frequency Table
【Only for registered voters】Have you ever voted in the past Council elections in
different tiers? Percentage of respondents （Base= 408） 81.2
Frequency 331
Yes
Percentage of total sample （Base=507） 65.4
No: not yet registered at that time
39 )
9.6 )
7.7 )
No: can vote but has not voted
31 ) 70
7.5 ) 17.1
6.0 ) 13.7
7
1.8
1.4
Total
408
100.0
Missing
0
Forgotten
Table 26
【Only for registered voters】 Will you vote in the coming Legislative Council
Election in September？
Frequency 222 )
Definitely yes
Percentage of respondents （Base=408） 54.4 ) 23.3 ) 77.6
Percentage of total sample （Base=507）
2.1 ) 3.0 ) 5.0
Most likely yes
95 ) 317
Most likely no
10 )
2.5 )
Definitely no
15 ) 26
3.7 ) 6.2
Not yet decide/Don’t know/Hard
66
16.1
Total
408
100.0
Missing
0
to say
Table 27
43.8 ) 18.7 ) 62.5
13.0
Did you participate in the July 1 rally last year？
Frequency
Percentage
Yes
74
14.6
No
432
85.4
Total
506
100.0
Missing
1
AppendixII-21
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Table 28
Frequency Table
Did you participate in the January 1 rally？ Frequency
Percentage
Yes
19
3.9
No
485
96.1
Total
505
100.0
Missing
2
Table 29
Did you participate in the July 1 rally this year？
Frequency
Percentage
Yes
46
9.2
No
458
90.8
Total
504
100.0
Missing
3
AppendixII-22
Appendix 3 Survey Questionnaire
THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG 香港大學 PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME 民意研究計劃 Tel 電話：(852) 2859 2988 Fax 傳真：(852) 2517 6951 Website 網址：http: / / hkupop.hku.hk Address: Room 804, Meng Wah Complex, the University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong 地址：香港 薄扶林道 香港大學 明華綜合大樓 804 室
THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG PUBLIC OPINION PROGRAMME & CIVIC EXCHANGE
JOINTLY CONDUCT
2004 Legislative Council Direct Election： Survey on Individual Constituency 【New Territories West】
Questionnaire (Final)
6 July 2004 The Public Opinion Programme (POP) was established in June 1991 at the Social Sciences Research Centre under the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Hong Kong. It was transferred to the Journalism and Media Studies Centre of the University of Hong Kong in May 2000, and then back to the Faculty of Social Sciences in January 2002. 香港大學民意研究計劃在一九九一年六月成立，初時隸屬香港大學社會科學學院的社會科學研究中心， 二零零零年五月轉往香港大學新聞及傳媒研究中心，二零零二年一月再轉回香港大學社會科學學院管轄。
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Section I
SurveyQuestionniare
Self Introduction
Good evening, I am an interviewer from the Public Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong. We would like to ask for your opinion regarding the Legislative Council elections which would only take you a couple of minutes. Please be rested assured that the information you provide will be kept strictly confidential.
[S1] Which district are you living in? Tsuen Wan Kwai Tsing Tuen Mun Yuen Long Islands Kwun Tong (skip to end) Wong Tai Sin (skip to end) Wanchai (skip to end) Eastern (skip to end) Central / Western (skip to end) Southern (skip to end) Sai Kung (skip to end) Shatin (skip to end) North (skip to end) Tai Po (skip to end) Kowloon City (skip to end) Mongkok (skip to end) Sham Shui Po (skip to end) Yau Tsim (skip to end) Refuse to answer (skip to end) [S2] How many members are there in your household？【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer 1
Appendix III-1
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Section II
SurveyQuestionniare
Selection of Respondent
[S3] How many members are there in your household aged 18 or above at this moment? (Interviewers can directly ask if there is only one qualified respondent at home. If so, interviewer can interview him / her at once.) Since we need to conduct random sampling, if there is more than one available, I would like to speak to the one who will have his / her birthday next. (Interviewer can illustrate with examples: “that means is there anyone who will have his / her birthday in June or the coming three months?”)【If there is no household member aged 18 or above, interview can be terminated.】 Yes No Interview completed. Thank you for your cooperation. Goodbye. (Skip to end)
Section III General Questions [Q1] If the Legislative Council elections were to be held tomorrow, and you had the right to vote, which candidate or list would you vote for？(Interviewers read out the names of candidates who would stand for elections, A11 and A12. The random order of the names would be displayed on the computer. Only one answer is allowed. ) [A1] [A2] [A3]
Leung Yiu Chung of Neighbourhood and Workers Service Albert Ho of Democratic Party Lee Wing Tat of Democratic Party
[A4] Cheung Yin Tung of Democratic Party [A5] Lee Cheuk Yan of Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions [A6] Albert Chan of pro-democracy camp [A7] Selina Chow of Liberal Party [A8] Tam Yiu Chung of Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong [A9] Tang Siu Tong of Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong [A10] Cheung Hok Ming of Heung Yee Kuk [A11] Any list from the pro-democracy camp (skip to Q4) [A12] Any list from the pro-China camp (skip to Q4) Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate (skip to Q4) Cast blank votes / Elect nobody (skip to Q6) Won’t vote (skip to Q6) Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say (skip to Q6) Refuse to answer (skip to Q6) Appendix III-2
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
SurveyQuestionniare
[Q2] If [choice in Q1] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you vote for？ (Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining candidates or parties. Only one answer is allowed.) Any list from the pro-democracy camp (skip to Q4) Any list from the pro-China camp (skip to Q4) Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate (skip to Q4) Cast blank votes / Elect nobody (skip to Q6) Won’t vote (skip to Q6) Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say (skip to Q6) Refuse to answer (skip to Q6) [Q3] If [choice in Q2] dropped out from elections, which one of them above would you vote for？ (Interviewer can remind the respondents of names of remaining 10 candidates. Only one answer is allowed.) Any list from the pro-democracy camp Any list from the pro-China camp Depend on the overall team-up and will not vote for a specific candidate Cast blank votes / Elect nobody (skip to Q6) Won’t vote (skip to Q6) Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say (skip to Q6) Refuse to answer (skip to Q6) [Q4] Will you vote for a list, no matter you like or dislike the candidates on the list, for the purpose of supporting the camp which appeals to you? Yes No Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q5] If the camp you support gave out some instructions to the electorates on the allocation of votes, such as casting your vote to another list belonging to the same camp according to your ID card number or birthday, would you follow? Yes No Appendix III-3
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
SurveyQuestionniare
Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q6] If candidates from Neighbourhood and Workers Service, Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong, Democratic Party, Liberal Party, Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions, Heung Yee Kuk (random order determined by computer), and some other independent candidates took part in the election in your district, which parties or candidates you would never support? (Multiple answers are allowed, interviewers to probe if there are any other answers) Neighbourhood and Workers Service Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong Democratic Party Liberal Party Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions Heung Yee Kuk No party affiliation / Independent Support nobody Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Won’t answer hypothetical question / Actual situation is different Refuse to answer [Q7] [Only ask those who supported Democratic Party or pro-democracy camp in Q1-Q3] If Democratic Party and pro-democracy camp took part in the election in one list, would you vote for this list? Yes No Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer
Appendix III-4
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
Section IV
[Q8]
SurveyQuestionniare
Political Inclination
Are you a registered voter?
Yes (including those who have just registered) No (skip to Q13) Refuse to answer (skip to Q13) [Q9] 【Only for registered voters】When did you register as a voter？【Deduced from the year, input exact number】 0＝this year，2004，which means no more than 1 year 1＝last year，2003，which means no more than 2 years 2＝2 years or above 3＝3 years or above，and so on _____ Forgotten Refuse to answer [Q10] 【Only for registered voters】Did you vote in the District Council Election last November? Yes (skip to Q12) No: because the councillors were automatically elected No: can vote but has not voted No: not yet registered at that time Forgotten Refuse to answer
[Q11] 【Only for registered voters】Have you ever voted in the past Council elections in different tiers? Yes No: not yet registered No: already registered Forgotten Refuse to answer Appendix III-5
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
SurveyQuestionniare
[Q12] 【Only for registered voters】Will you vote in the coming Legislative Council Election in September？ Definitely yes Most likely yes Most likely no Definitely no Not yet decide / Don’t know / Hard to say Refuse to answer [Q13] Did you participate in the July 1 rally last year？ Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten Refuse to answer [Q14] Did you participate in the January 1 rally？ Yes No Don’t know / Forgotten Refuse to answer
Appendix III-6
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
SurveyQuestionniare
Section V Personal Particulars I'd like to know some of your personal particulars in order to facilitate our analysis. [DM1] Gender Male Female [DM2] Age【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer [DM3] Education Attainment Primary or below Secondary Matriculated Tertiary, non-degree course Tertiary, degree course Postgraduate or above Refuse to answer
[D4] The type of ownership of your house is: Self-purchased, or Rent? Refuse to answer
[D5] House type Public housing estate Housing Authority subsidized sale flats Housing Society subsidized sale flats Private housing Village: villas / bungalows / modern village houses Village: simple stone structures / traditional village houses Public temporary housing Appendix III-7
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency�NT West】
SurveyQuestionniare
Private temporary housing Staff quarters Others Refuse to answer [DM6] Occupation Managers and administrators Professionals Associate professionals Clerks Service workers and shop sales workers Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Craft and related workers Plant and machine operators and assemblers Non-skilled workers Students Housewives Unclassified Others (unemployed, retired, etc.) Refuse to answer [DM7] Which class do you consider your family belongs to? options, only one answer is allowed) Upper class Upper-middle class Middle class Lower-middle class Lower class or grassroots Don't know / hard to say Refuse to answer [DM8] Is your family in negative equity? Yes No Don't know / hard to say Refuse to answer
Appendix III-8
(Interviewer to read out the first 5
Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong 2004 LegCo Direct Election: Survery on Individual Constituency【NT West】
SurveyQuestionniare
[DM9] Place of birth Hong Kong (skip to end) Mainland China Taiwan (skip to end) Macau (skip to end) Southeast Asia (e.g. Malaysia、Indonesia、Vietnam)(skip to end) Canada (skip to end) America (skip to end) Australia (skip to end) England (skip to end) Others (skip to end) Don’t know (skip to end) Refuse to answer (skip to end)
[DM10] 【Only for those born in mainland China】How long have you been living in Hong Kong？【Input exact number】 _____ Refuse to answer
Appendix III-9