Economic Aspects by Civic Exchange

Half-way to Where? The Electoral Structures and Public Opinion Contexts: 2004 Hong Kong Legislative Council Election (August 2004)

A commissioned research project for Civic Exchange conducted by:

Hong Kong Transition Project

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table of Contents Chart 1: Composition of Legislative Council 1984-2004

Entrenching political and economic inequality

Table 1: The Sweet 16 FCs (Pro-government supporters, actual votes in 2000)

Table 2 The Sour 16 GCs (based on actual votes cast in 2000 Legco election)

Table 3 Contrast Table, Sweet and Sour Chart 2: Sweet and Sour Veto Bloc 16

Chart 3 Functional Constituencies, No. of Registered Electors in each 2004

Worry and Dissatisfaction among the electorate Table 4 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with your life in Hong Kong?

Table 5 Are you currently satisfied/dissatisfied with the general performance of the HK Government?

Table 6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with performance of C. E. Tung?

Chart of Satisfaction with the Performance of Chief Executive Tung*

Table 7 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the PRCG in dealing with Hong Kong affairs?

Table 8 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the PRCG in ruling China?

Table 9 How do you feel currently about HK’s future prospects as a part of China?

Table 10 Collapsed categories—optimism about HK future as part of China

Table 11 How worried are you about : Personal standard of living?

Chart How worried are you about : Personal standard of living?

Table 12 How worried are you about: Hong Kong’s economic prospects?

Chart: Worry about Hong Kong’s economic prospects

Table 13 How do you expect your family financial situation to change over the next 12 months?

Table 14 Collapsed categories from Table 13: Expectations over coming year

Table 15 How worried are you about: corruption in HK?

Table 16 How worried are you about: your family prospects in Hong Kong?

Table 17 How worried are you about: Hong Kong’s political stability?

Chart: Worry about Political Stability

Table 18 Of the worries mentioned, which aspect worries you the most? Charts of Table 18 Which aspect worries you the most?

Table 19 Are you worried or not worried about your employment situation ?

Table 20 How worried are you about: competitiveness of Hong Kong?

Table 21 Are you worried/not worried about social unrest in Hong Kong?

Table 22 Are you worried/not worried about constitutional reform disputes causing chaos?

Table 23 Are you currently worried or not worried about: Free press ? Table 24 Are you worried or not worried about air and water pollution?

Table 25 Which problem of Hong Kong are you most concerned about now personally?

Table 26 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the government’s performance on this problem? ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Constitutional Issues and the voters

Table 27 Did you express concern or seek help from any of the following groups in the past 12 months? Table 28 Have you attended any meetings or activities of one of the following groups in the last six months? Table 29 Do you support or oppose direct election of all Legco seats?

Table 30 If you support direct elections of all Legco seats, when would you implement?

Table 31 Do you support or oppose direct election of the Chief Executive?

Table 32 When should direct election of CE be implemented?

Table 33 How possible do you think it is that the democratic camp will win a majority in Legco this September? (July 2004)

Table 34 If the democratic camp wins a majority, how worried would you be that it would negatively affect: (Plan to voteâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;July 2004) Table 35 Do you support or oppose the democratic camp to win a majority in Legco?

Table 36 Satisfaction with political parties (ranked in order of dissatisfaction in July 2004) Methodology and contact information

ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project

Half-way to Where? The Electoral Structures and Public Opinion Contexts: 2004 Hong Kong Legislative Council Election (5 August 2004)1

The Basic Law, promulgated in April 1990, contain provisions for a process in the years following the return of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty (July 1997) toward the “ultimate aim” of universal suffrage election of all members of LegCo and of the Chief Executive (CE). The 2004 election will see the end of LegCo members chosen by a small election committee and the return, for the first time, of half its members by direct election from Geographic Constituencies (GCs). Half, as in 2000, will come from Functional Constituencies (FCs), which have far smaller electorates, restrictive qualification requirements, and which permit or require corporate “designated voting” in many instances. The electoral process from 1984 to 2004 is provided in Chart 1 below. Chart 1: Composition of Legislative Council 1984-2004 Appointed Elected Functional Electoral Directly Year of Ex officio Constituency committee elected election government members 1984 17 30 1985 11 22 12 12 0 1988 11 20 14 12 0 1991 4 18 21 0 18 1995 0 0 21 +9 new large** 10 20 *1996 Election of First Chief Executive by 400 appointed Election Ctte 1997-8 Provisional Legco by same committee 60 1998 0 0 30 10** 20 2000 0 0 30 6** 24 200 ex officio, 600 by Functional *2002 Second Chief Executive Constituency Selection/Election Election by 800 member Election Committee 2004 0 0 0 30 30 2008 Election rules for Legco to be set *2007 Election rules for Chief Executive to be set

Total

47 57 57 60 60 60 60 60

**The Election Committee in 1995 was by all members of District Councils, in which appointments had been abolished. Corporate voting in Functional Constituencies had been abolished and the franchise expanded to nearly 2 million voters. This was reversed in 1998. In 2004, fewer than 200,000 are registered in the FCs, including over 15,000 corporate or designated voters.

The supposition, until 2004, was that the Basic Law permitted Hong Kong, on its own, to draw up the rules for electing the 2008 LegCo while the 2007 CE election would require permission 1

For survey methods and numbers interviewed in each of the surveys, see end of this report. The Hong Kong Transition Project has been partially funded by competitive grants from the Research Grants Council of the University Grants Committee. Other surveys and research referred to in this report have been funded by Civic Exchange, an independent Hong Kong research tank on public policy, the National Democratic Institute, and faculty research grants from Hong Kong University and Hong Kong Baptist University. This particular report and study have been largely but not wholly funded by Civic Exchange, and is presented in partnership with Civic Exchange as the primary commissioner of this part of its special 2004 Legco election study. ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004 4

The Hong Kong Transition Project from Beijing before substantial changes in the present election by 800 designated voters in an Election Committee could be made. In March and April 2004, the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (SC) issued interpretations of the Basic Law which required that a report “on the actual situation” first be filed by the CE regarding his understanding of Hong Kong’s readiness for further democracy, and then the SC would stipulate the limits and the pace at which steps forward would be taken. The SC duly decided that no change in the 50/50 division of GCs and FCs would occur in 2008, nor would indirect election by an Election Committee of the CE be changed in 2007. The continuation of the FCs into the foreseeable future mandates that the features of these seats, which will continue to comprise half the seats of LegCo be carefully examined. Civic Exchange has initiated the first full-scale independent study of Hong Kong’s almost unique FC electoral practices.2 This report only refers to the main outlines of their effect on government, voting, and public opinion. The first random-sample based survey report of FC voters ever conducted will be forthcoming after the 2004 election. FCs have a determinative effect on policy making in the Hong Kong SAR. Votes are usually taken according to a “2-House” voting rule that stipulates for amendments to motions or bills to pass, a majority of members from both the GCs and the FCs must assent. Since the government controls the introduction of legislation, this means that in effect any attempt to change its proposals without its consent triggers the requirement for what is in effect a super-majority vote of 32 out of 60. This also means, in effect, that 16 members of the GCs or 16 members of the FC (a majority of one in either half in the current 30/30 division of LegCo) can veto a measure. A bill might pass the GCs half of the house unanimously and even be joined by 14 FC members, for a total vote of 44 of 60 votes (or nearly 3 out of 4 LegCo members) yet fail. The government can thus rely on just 16 FC members to stymie any moves by the pro-democracy dominated GCs to make what the Tung Chee-hwa Administration considers legislative mischief. This system the SC perpetuated. Entrenching political and economic inequality Eight of the 30 FCs are returned wholly by corporate voting. That is, registered bodies on a one body, one vote basis choose, by various means, a designated voter to cast their ballot. Some of these corporate voters have thousands of members while others may have only the owner of a shelf company as the only real voter (there were a number of shelf companies with the minimum legal assets among the 15,119 corporate bodies registered to vote in 2000), yet each “body” has one vote to cast. The Transport FC is case in point. In 2000, it had 153 corporate votes and no individual registrants. The KCR and MTR had a vote apiece, as did scores of little taxi and minibus companies and associations of drivers of firms in various areas of the SAR. Transport policy, not surprisingly, favours bus and taxi (road) over rail in nearly every single instance where there is a conflict since there are far more votes among the road interests than rail interests. The FCs are created in such a way as to provide a confluence of influence favoring certain broad policy and expenditure areas, for example, development via public works or public driven redevelopment via a bizarre system that actually makes secondary mortgages nearly impossible to obtain on properties approaching 30 years of age. Prospective purchasers of older properties have little hope of obtaining a mortgage from a banking system regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s policy of forbidding such loans or undervaluing as capital assets loans on such properties.3 This encourages building owners to let properties deteriorate after 30 years in hopes of being bought out by the government for redevelopment. But, as long as the 2

More details of the Civic Exchange FC study may be found on its website at http://www.civic-exchange.org The actual policy is obscured by the HKMA and bankers mutual unwillingness to discuss anything to do with the issue other than to deny it exists. ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004 5 3

The Hong Kong Transition Project government can keep at least 16 of the FCs “sweet” on their policies, they keep control. Hence, however bizarre the policies or expenditures needed to secure their favour, they can count on controlling LegCo so long as a sufficient number of FCs are kept onside. As Table 1 shows, the government does not have to persuade that many voters or corporations to obtain the votes of the “sweet 16” in LegCo it needs. Due to 7 uncontested seats, in 2000 the number of votes needed to return an ironclad 16 vote FC veto bloc was 1,728 votes. Table 1: The Sweet 16 FCs (Pro-government supporters, actual votes in 2000) Functional Constituency Member elected Votes in 2000 1 Real Estate & Construction Abraham Shek 357 2 Heung Yee Kuk Lau Wong Fat 0* 3 Financial Services Henry Wu 177 4 Textiles and garments Sophie Lau 0 5 Sports, performing arts, culture Timothy Fok 0 6 Industrial (First) Kenneth Ting 305 7 Industrial (Second) Lui Ming wah 0 8 Agriculture & Fisheries Y.K. Wong 0 9 Insurance Bernard Chan 0 10 Transport Miriam Lau 106 11 Labour (3 seats, 2 FTU) K.K. Chan 226 12 F.Y. Li 283 13 Tourism Howard Young 274 14 Commercial (First) James Tien 0 15 Import and Export C. C. Hui 0 16 Commercial (Second) Philip Wong 0 Total 1,728 *0 indicates elected unopposed

Seldom have so few exercised so much power over so many, and almost wholly without any scrutiny. Since most of these few are hidden among corporate bodies, and after the voting disappear again into the corporate body, the FC representatives have no way to really tell what their “voters” actually think. They must do simply whatever they think will please all or most of the members of the corporate bodies, and then hope for the best when the corporate vote gets cast. This is another factor behind the remarkable power of the depreciate, develop and redevelop voting bloc that dominates government policy on a myriad of issues. The same limited number and obscure identity of the FC voters make it nearly impossible for academics to study or reliably determine the sentiments of these very privileged, very powerful voters. In contrast to the handful of votes, which comprise the FC veto over the legislature, a veto bloc of 16 votes in the GCs is very difficult to assemble. Table 2 shows what could be called the “sour” 16 votes in the GC half of LegCo that generally voted together as a “pro-democracy” group against the government.4 This group is a weak bloc of voters because in contrast to the 8 or 9 naturally cooperative votes of the pro-development bloc in the FC half of LegCo which have only a relative handful of mostly corporate interests to appease or please, these 16 have to satisfy the interests of hundreds of thousands to be elected. Table 2 lists the actual votes cast in the 2000 LegCo election, dividing up evenly votes cast for lists that produced two winners. The subsequent resignation of DAB member Cheng Kai-nam and the by-election of pro-democrat Audrey Eu by over 100,000 votes is not considered in this look at the 2000 election results. 4

It should be noted that the Democratic Party, the largest of the bloc, has voted with the government 90 percent of the time according to a study by Dr. Rowena Kwok of Hong Kong University. ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004 6

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 2 Count 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Total

The Sour 16 GCs (based on actual votes cast in 2000 Legco election) Member Constituency Votes Martin Lee HKI 46,037 Yeung Sum HKI 46,037 Cyd Ho HKI 25,988 Frederick Fung KW 62,717 Lau Chin-shek KW 36,770 James To KW 36,770 Szeto Wah KE 51,932 Fred Li KE 51,931 Leung Yiu chung NTW 59,348 Albert Chan NTW 43,613 Lee Chuek-yan NTW 52,202 Albert Ho NTW 38,472 Wong Sing chi NTE 25,971 Emily Lau NTE 63,541 Andrew Cheng NTE 49,242 Andrew Wong*** NTE 44,899 735,470

***Frequently but not always supports pro-democracy votes

Table 3 contrasts the votes obtained in the 2000 election by each LegCo “house” to comprise a 16 vote veto bloc. The chart following presents in stark visual terms the contrast between the votes required to form the GC veto block and those for the FC veto block. Conducting a random telephone interview of GC voters is simple. However, since most of the FC voters, what few there are, are corporate voters, locating them either before or after an election is an arduous if not impossible task. Political lobbying by constituents, the normal process of constituent service, and processes of accountability by subsequent votes (corporate votes may be cast by someone else entirely in following elections) are nullified by the current system. Table 3 Contrast Table, Sweet and Sour Count FC votes GC votes 1 357 63,541 2 305 62,717 3 283 59,348 4 274 52,202 5 226 51,932 6 177 51,931 7 106 49,242 8 0 46,037 9 0 46,037 10 0 44,899 11 0 43,613 12 0 38,472 13 0 36,770 14 0 36,770 15 0 25,988 16 0 25,971 Total 1,728 735,470 ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Chart 2: Sweet and Sour Veto Bloc 16 70000

60000

FC votes GC votes

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

As can be seen, the 7 FC seats that were contested required so few votes as to pale to invisibility against the GC votes cast. Not all FCs are so tiny, though all 30 have far fewer voters than any GC, a situation that has continued in the 2004 election as may be seen in the table below, despite a rise in registered voters from 175,000 to nearly 200,000. It is no surprise at all that the seats shaded in gray, with the smallest electorates, are precisely those the pro-government candidates are likely to control. Nor is it surprising that those with larger electorates, shaded in green, are those most likely to fall to pro-democracy candidates or at least to be most closely contested by such groups. The April SC decision forced a rethink by pro-democracy forces, which have hitherto neglected all but the largest FCs. They are now challenging pro-government parties in the larger FC seats as never before. The gross inequality between the relative voting power of the typical GC voter and that of the FC voters, and the insistence by FC LegCo members and FC voters in the Election Committee which elected Tung Chee-hwa unopposed in 2002 to back his every misconceived move, has been one of the factors undercutting the legitimacy of the SAR system. As will be seen, the decision by the SC to perpetuate this structure has cost the Central Peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Government (CPG) dearly in public esteem. ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Chart 3 Functional Constituency

No. of Registered Electors 2004

Heung Yee Kuk

149

Finance

154

Insurance

161

Agriculture and Fisheries

162

Transport

182

District Council

462

Industrial (Second)

499

Labour (3 seats)

519

Financial Services

644

Real Estate and Construction

757

Industrial (First)

804

Tourism

964

Commercial (First)

1,077

Import and Export

1,385

Sports, Performing Arts, Culture and Publication

1,631

Commercial (Second)

1,835

Textiles and Garment

3,894

Wholesale and Retail

4,063

Information Technology

4,571

Legal

5,073

Architectural, Surveying and Planning

5,116

Engineering

7,252

Catering

7,786

Medical

9,356

Social Welfare

10,405

Accountancy

17,500

Health Services

35,442

Education

77,696

TOTAL

199,539

Worry and Dissatisfaction among the electorate There is no need to elaborate here events since the introduction of Article 23 legislation and the implementation of the Principle Officials Accountability System in 2002. Civic Exchange, the Hong Kong Transition Project and SynergyNet websites have multiple reports about events which resulted in some of the largest demonstrations in Hong Kong’s history, the resignations of three ministers and a member of ExCo, the amendment, then withdrawal of Article 23 legislation, the defeat of many pro-government candidates in the 2003 District Council election, and the SC’s unilateral intervention setting limits on electoral reforms before 2012. These events have, despite improvement in economic indicators, affected sentiments toward life here. ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004 9

The Hong Kong Transition Project This can clearly be seen by the sharp drop in satisfaction between April 2004, in a survey taken before the SC ruling, and May. Even with unemployment falling below 7 percent for the first time in nearly two years, satisfaction fell again in July. Table 4 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with your life in Hong Kong? Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

84 85 88 88 87 86 80 85 88 90 86 81 71 68 74 70 72 73 72 65 65 67 61 71 65 64 66 62 66 60 51 57 67 60 62 55

15 13 10 10 10 9 18 13 10 9 12 16 26 30 25 27 24 26 26 33 31 30 34 25 32 33 31 34 31 37 44 39 27 35 35 39

1 2 2 2 3 5 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 4 3 5 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 5 5 3 4 6

Nov 91 Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 June 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 June 2003 Nov 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

90 80

BBBB B

BBB

B B

70 60

B BBB B B

BBB

BBB B B B B

B B 1

50 40 11 1 11111 1 1 1 11111 1

30 20

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don know

1 1 111 1

1 1 1111 11 GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG GG GG GG 0 GGGG GGGGG GG GGG 1

©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Dissatisfaction peaked with the performance of the government in December 2003, after it insisted on packing the District Councils with over 100 pro-government appointees. Dissatisfaction remains as high in July 2004 as it was in mid-June 2003, shortly before over half a million marched and nearly brought down the CE and his government. Table 5 Are you currently satisfied/dissatisfied with the general performance of the HK Government? Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

60 57 58 56 43 46 60 67 73 66 51 48 37 42 42 46 40 41 39 30 31 35 32 37 35 24 31 22 23 23 20 16 23 24 20 24

31 28 28 30 35 45 26 21 20 27 35 41 56 49 48 43 52 51 53 61 62 58 58 55 59 68 60 72 69 69 75 79 67 68 73 68

9 15 14 14 22 9 15 11 7 7 4 12 7 9 10 11 7 8 8 4 6 7 10 7 5 7 9 6 9 8 5 6 10 5 6 8

Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sep 95 Feb 96 July 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 April 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 June 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 June 2003 Nov 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

80 B

B B

60 B BBB 50

30 1

111 B 11B 1 BB1BBB 1 B B

1 111

1 11

1 1 11 1

11 1 1 1

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don know

B BB B B B B

B BBB BB B B B B GGG G G GG 10 G G G G G G G G GG G GGG GG GGG G GGG GGG G G 0 G

©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Dissatisfaction with Tung Chee-hwa’s performance also hit a peak in December 2003 with his insistence on putting over 100 pro-government appointees on the District Councils. After, it recovered somewhat, only to return to that peak in June 2004 before subsiding after he accepted the resignations of Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food, E.K.Yeoh, and chairman of the Hospital Authority, Leong Che-hung, following the LegCo report on SARS. Table 6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with performance of C. E. Tung? Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 June 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 June 2003 Nov 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

60 50

Very Dissatisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied Somewhat Satisfied

Very Satisfied

5 5 3 8 13 12 9 8 13 14 17 19 23 16 18 14 19 25 17 28 32 29 37 40 35 35 39 32

19 24 26 28 34 33 33 34 33 39 37 37 37 40 39 40 38 40 41 39 34 41 36 36 31 33 37 37

5 4 3 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 1

23 21 11 11 7 6 12 8 8 8 9 12 7 7 12 9 6 10 9 11 8 8 6 8 13 7 7 8

H H

JJ J JJ J J J J J J HH H H H J JJJ J J 1 H H H 30 H 1 J J 1H H J 1 20 J H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 10 1 1 1 B1 1B B B B B B B BB BBB B B B 1B B B B B 0

1 1 1J J JJ 11 J 1 J

H H

B BBB

Very Dissatisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Somewhat Satisfied

Very Satisfied DK

HH H

B B B

Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 June 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 June 2003 Nov 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

48 46 57 48 41 45 42 47 42 36 36 31 31 34 29 36 34 24 31 20 24 19 20 15 20 20 16 22

©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Chart of Satisfaction with the Performance of Chief Executive Tung* 100 Very Satisfied

90 80

Somewhat Satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Very Dissatisfied

50 40 30 20 10 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Oct 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 June 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 June 2003 Nov 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

*Don’t Know responses not charted

The dramatic effect of Beijing’s intervention into Hong Kong affairs in April 2004 can be seen in the next table and chart. In November 2003, barely two weeks before the District Council elections which saw its allies heavily defeated, Beijing’s non-intervention in the run-up to those elections and its moderate response to the historic July 2003 march of over half a million had earned the CPG its highest satisfaction ratings since July 1998, when President Jiang Zemin and US President Clinton came to Hong Kong to celebrate the first anniversary of the reunification of Hong Kong to the mainland. Effectively, while the local government had extremely low ratings and support, the CPG had off-setting high rates which gave it the political capital to buttress the weak and very deeply disdained CE. However, the controversial intrusion of the SC into the debate over constitutional reform has triggered a massive fall in satisfaction with the performance of the CPG in dealing with Hong Kong affairs. The level of dissatisfaction with its performance exceeded the level of satisfaction with its performance for the first time since the handover. The April survey was concluded just before the 26 April announcement of the SC’s ruling, but the first intervention which asserted Beijing’s insistence that it set the rules and limits for constitutional reform even before launching consultations with Hong Kongers, and the harsh rhetorical atmosphere created by its partisans had already cost it a great deal of the political capital it had accumulated in the previous six years. The CPG, along with the local SAR government and its CE, go into the September elections with very high negative sentiments towards their performance.

©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 7 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the PRCG in dealing with Hong Kong affairs? Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Aug 93 Feb 93 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99

25 23 21 20 17 31 27 45 61 67 68 74 67 65 60

54 56 63 60 62 49 58 41 22 17 17 11 15 19 25

22 21 16 20 22 20 15 14 18 16 15 15 17 16 16

Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 01 July 01 Nov 01 Apr 02 Aug 02 June 2003 Nov 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

57 55 56 50 46 57 55 59 57 57 72 47 37 38 42

26 31 27 36 34 29 26 25 25 28 18 37 50 53 48

17 13 15 14 21 14 19 17 19 16 10 17 11 9 10

80 B

70 60 50

1 11

BB 11

BB B

B BB BB

B BB B

B 1

40 30

1 B

B 1

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don know

1BB

1 B

1 1 11 1 B 11 1 B 1 G G G 20 G G B GB G G 1 G 1 1 1 B G G G GG G G G1 GG GG G G G G G 1 10 G G GG B

Aug 93 Feb 93 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2002 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 June 2003 Nov 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project The CPG’s local interference have even cost it sentiment in terms of satisfaction with its rule of China as a whole. Table 8 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the PRCG in ruling China? Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

35 26 29 24 22 15 30 28 38 34 37 43 44 52 53 49 44 49 38 47 47 41 53 57 60 60 61 68 58 54 56 57

49 55 53 64 62 62 49 56 45 51 39 34 34 24 24 31 28 31 37 31 29 33 28 20 18 18 22 15 21 25 28 25

16 19 18 12 16 24 22 16 17 15 24 23 22 24 23 20 27 20 24 22 24 26 19 24 22 22 18 17 21 19 16 19

Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 April 2002 Aug 2002 June 2003 Nov 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

70 1

60 1 50 1

B 11 1 1

40 B

B 1B B 11

BBB

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Don know

1 1 B 1 1G 1 G B 1 1 B G G G 1G 1G G G G B G G G G G1 20 G G G G 1 1 1 G 1G G G G G G GB GGG G 1 G 10 30

Despite these dramatic changes in satisfaction with the political management of Hong KongChina relations, sentiment toward the economic integration of Hong Kong with the mainland has ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project been quite different. It is perhaps ironic that the Central Government concluded that the cause of Hong Kong’s intense disaffection in July 2003 was mainly economic, not political, and subsequently embarked on a program of “concessions” to Hong Kong including personal visas instead of group visas for mainland tourists to Hong Kong and allowing them to take more money with them to spend in Hong Kong. However, as may be seen below, clearly while economic worry has dropped, political dissatisfaction, as shown above, has stayed at high levels. Table 9 How do you feel about 1997 and Hong Kong’s reunion with China? (Feb and June 1997) Looking back over the first year, how do you feel about HK’s prospects for the future as part of China? (July 98) How do you feel currently about HK’s future prospects as a part of China? (Apr 99 on) Very Optimistic Optimistic Neither Pessimistic Very Pessimistic DK Feb 1997 June 1997 July 1998 Apr 1999 July 1999 Nov 1999 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 June 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004

7 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 5 4 3 3 2 3 1 4 1 2 3 4 4

55 54 41 37 35 36 37 27 33 26 30 24 22 23 16 21 17 19 30 32 32

30 32 30 33 33 39 33 40 38 41 38 35 31 34 33 34 28 31 32 36 39

6 6 13 15 14 13 15 19 16 19 21 29 30 30 35 26 35 31 25 16 18

-1 4 2 4 4 2 3 4 5 5 7 11 7 11 11 15 7 5 6 3

60 J J 50 J

40 30 F

F F F J J J J F F F J J

F F F 10 G BF BF BG G B 1 B 1B 1G 1 G 1G 0

J F

J F FF F

1 1 G G G1 G1 G B B B 1G B B G B 1 1B

F F F FF F F F FJ J J F F F F J J J F J F J 1 1 1 G 1 1 G 1G 1G G G B G B G B B B B1 B B

Very Optimistic

Optimistic

Neither

Pessimistic

Very Pessimistic

Feb 1997 June 1997 July 1998 Apr 1999 July 1999 Nov 1999 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 June 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004

2 1 6 7 9 4 7 8 4 5 4 2 5 3 3 5 4 9 5 6 5

The pattern of responses above is clarified in the table and chart below. ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 10 Collapsed categoriesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;optimism about HK future as part of China Optimistic Neither/DKPessimisti Feb 1997 62 32 6 June 1997 60 33 7 July 1998 47 36 17 Apr 1999 42 40 17 July 1999 40 42 18 Nov 1999 40 43 17 Apr 2000 42 40 17 Aug 2000 30 48 22 Nov 2000 38 42 20 Apr 2001 30 46 24 June 2001 33 42 26 July 2001 27 37 36 Nov 2001 24 36 41 Apr 2002 26 34 37 Aug 2002 17 36 46 Nov 2002 25 39 37 Mar 2003 18 32 50 June 2003 21 40 38 Apr 2004 33 37 30 May 2004 36 42 22 June 2004 36 44 21 70 Optimistic B 60 B B Neither/DK F

Pessimistic

F F 1 F 1F F B B F 1F F 1 F 1 F B F B F F 30 B B 1 B 1 B B B 1 1 1 1 1 B 20 B 1 1 1 1 1 B 40

B F F B F B B F

F B

1 1 Feb 1997 June 1997 July 1998 Apr 1999 July 1999 Nov 1999 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 June 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004

The same pattern of recovering economic confidence can be seen in all charts dealing with economic concerns. ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 11 How worried are you about : Personal standard of living? Not Worried

slightly worried

fairly worried

Very Worried

Don’t know

Nov 91 Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00

56 45 47 51 44 50 48 47 44 49 47 42 40 34 49 45 48 49 47 46

23 21 27 29 38 26 26 29 34 36 36 30 29 28 22 27 28 23 28 24

12 19 14 13 12 15 14 13 12 10 11 18 19 24 18 15 15 17 14 16

5 10 8 5 5 6 9 7 7 2 5 8 11 14 10 11 8 9 9 12

4 5 4 1 1 3 3 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2

Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

42 48 41 42 28 33 29 32 24 30 42 48 46 43 44

27 25 24 27 25 23 26 26 28 27 24 24 28 33 27

16 14 16 15 21 20 25 21 25 24 19 16 15 16 17

13 11 17 16 25 23 18 20 22 19 13 11 10 7 11

2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 -1 2 1 1 1

60 B 50

B B

BB B B B B B B

J J

B BB BB B B B BB

B B

B B J B B J J J J JJ J J J B J JJ J J HJ J J 1 H H J J J J 1J 1B H J J J H H H1 20 JH HH H 1 1H H H H H1 1 H HHH 1 HH H 1 H H HH H HH 1 1 1 H H H H 1 11 1 10 1 H 11 11 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 11 1 1 0 J

Not Worried

slightly worried

fairly worried

Very Worried Don know

Nov 91 Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Chart How worried are you about : Personal standard of living?

100 90

Don know

Very Worried

fairly worried

slightly worried

50 40

Not Worried

30 20 10 Nov 91 Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

As can be seen in the next table and chart, while economic worry has diminished, overall concern about Hong Kongâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic future remains well above what it was prior to 1997. The sense that Hong Kong is prepared, or being led to become prepared, to compete adequately in the new context of becoming part of China while also being integrated into the global economy is still fragile and somewhat uncertain. The old confidence that Hong Kong can handle anything, take any blow, turn on a dime and recover fast has been severely shaken by the extended downturn and considerable dislocations, which followed reunification and the Asian currency crisis.

ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 12 How worried are you about: Hong Kong’s economic prospects? Not Worried

slightly worried

fairly worried

Very Worried

Don’t know

Feb 93 Jul 93 Jan 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00

37 42 49 40 44 42 39 42 52 53 28 28 20 29 30 33 30 32 35

23 24 26 33 26 26 29 31 27 26 31 27 23 26 28 27 27 28 31

23 18 13 16 18 16 17 15 12 13 24 25 30 23 22 20 21 23 18

10 7 7 8 6 10 8 7 5 5 13 17 27 19 16 16 19 14 14

7 9 5 3 6 6 7 5 4 3 4 4 1 2 3 3 3 3 3

Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004

31 28 21 19 12 19 13 16

28 29 29 24 20 21 20 22

22 22 26 25 27 25 29 29

15 19 22 30 39 33 36 31

3 3 3 1 1 2 2 1

11 14 24 31 31 29 28

21 25 25 26 29 35 33

27 26 28 21 21 22 22

38 35 20 18 17 11 15

3 1 2 4 2 2 2

May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

60 50 40

B B

B B B B

1 1 1 J B 1 J J B B 1 J J H B B JB BB 30 1 J H H J B B J J B J J B BJ 1 J J J J J J B H H H HHJ J JJ H H J J H B H JH J HJ J H H H H H B1 JJ HH J 20 1H H B1 H1 1 BJ BJ 1 H H H H 1 1 11 H H H B 1 1 1 1 B H H H1 B B B 1 10 1 1 1 11 1 11 11 0

Not Worried

slightly worried

fairly worried

Very Worried Don know

Feb 93 Jul 93 Jan 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Chart: Worry about Hong Kongâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic prospects 100

Don know

90 80

Very Worried

fairly worried

60 50

slightly worried

Not Worried

30 20 10 Feb 93 Jul 93 Jan 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

There are also signs of unease beginning to develop just in the last four weeks, with some slight increase in worry on various economic aspects consistently showing up in the difference between the survey in June and the survey in the July. The same slight rise in concern can be seen in the table and chart below, which shows a decrease in expectations of improvement in family finances over the next 12 months.

ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 13 How do you expect your family financial situation to change over the next 12 months? Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Nov 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

Improve a lot 1 --1 1 ---1 1 1 --1 1 1 1 --

Improve somewhat 7 8 10 9 13 12 11 8 5 6 5 6 5 4 7 10 9 10 7

Stay same 47 57 52 62 58 60 63 60 43 52 49 48 44 44 56 62 62 64 67

Deteriorate somewhat 31 27 24 20 18 15 15 19 32 26 27 27 31 34 20 18 17 16 16

Deteriorate a lot 7 8 6 4 5 6 6 7 15 12 12 13 15 13 8 5 8 4 5

DK 7 4 7 5 5 6 4 5 5 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 3 5 5

100 Deteriorate a lot

90 80

Deteriorate somewhat

Stay same

Improve somewhat

50 40

Improve a lot

30 20 10 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Nov 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

The results of the table above are simplified and made clearer in the chart below.

ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 14 Collapsed categories from Table 13: Expectations over coming year Improve 8 8 10 9 14 13 11 8 5 7 6 7 5 4 8 11 10 11 7

Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Nov 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

Stay same 47 57 52 62 58 60 63 60 43 52 49 48 44 44 56 62 62 64 67

Deteriorate 38 35 30 24 23 21 21 26 47 38 39 40 46 47 28 23 25 20 21

70 J

60 50 40 30 20 10

J J

J 1

1 J 1 1 1 1 1 1

B B B B

B B

J J J

1 1 1

Improve

Stay same

Deteriorate

1J 1J

B B B B B B B

1 1 1

B B B

Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Nov 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

One aspect of politics and economics that was a great concern in 1997, the return of corruption like that in the 1960s before the creation of the Independent Commission Against Corruption, shows improvement despite the extended economic downturn and despite very high dissatisfaction with the performance of the Hong Kong government and the CE.

ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 15 How worried are you about: corruption in HK? Not Worried slightly worried fairly worried Very Worried Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know July 96 22 26 23 22 6 Dec 96 11 25 29 31 4 Feb 97 20 31 24 17 7 June 97* 20 28 28 21 3 Jan 98 43 25 17 9 6 Apr 98 42 24 16 12 7 June 98 46 24 18 9 4 July 98 52 20 14 9 4 Oct 98 53 23 12 6 6 July 99 54 22 12 6 6 Nov 99 48 21 17 9 6 Apr 00 53 20 13 10 4 Aug 00 46 23 17 9 5 Nov 00 50 24 13 9 4 Apr 2001 44 25 13 11 6 July 2001 54 19 13 10 3 Nov 2001 50 24 10 11 4 Apr 2002 54 23 11 9 3 Aug 2002 46 25 16 9 4 Nov 2002 50 22 15 11 3 Mar 2003 57 21 11 7 5 June 2003 51 24 14 9 2 Nov 2003 50 24 13 8 2 Apr 2004 59 19 12 5 5 May 2004 53 22 11 9 5 June 2004 58 21 13 5 3 July 2004 58 23 11 5 2 *To June 1997 the question was: How worried are you about corruption in HK after 1997? The question then measured anticipation of mainland style official corruption appearing in Hong Kong.

60 B B B

50 40

B B

B B B

1 J H JH J J J JJ J J J H1B H JJ J J J J J J J J 1 J J J 20 J BB J J J 1 H HH H H H H H H H H H H H 1 HH HH H H B 1 1 1 H H 10 1 1 H 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 0

Not Worried

slightly worried

fairly worried

Very Worried Don know

July 96 Dec 96 Feb 97 June 97* Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Nov 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

Like concern with economic direction, concern about family prospects in Hong Kong show some recovery since 2000 but also a bit of weakening in that recovery over the past two months. ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Perhaps the concern is that the recovery is or will run out of steam and that younger and older family members will have a more difficult time of it in future than they had in the past. Table 16 How worried are you about: your family prospects in Hong Kong? Aug 2000 July 2001 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 50 B B 45

Not Worried 47 47 30 33 26 31 39 43 46 39 42

slightly worried 25 23 26 26 28 25 25 24 26 31 28

B B

30 25

fairly worried 15 17 25 21 24 24 20 19 16 20 17

B JH

20 15

B J

J B H

H 1

Very Worried 10 12 16 18 19 19 13 11 10 8 11

Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know 2 2 3 2 3 1 3 4 3 2 2

Not Worried

slightly worried

fairly worried

Very Worried Don know

H H

H 1

5 July 2004

June 2004

May 2004

Apr 2004

Dec 2003

June 2003

Mar 2003

Nov 2002

Aug 2002

July 2001

Aug 2000

100 Don know

90 80

Very Worried

fairly worried

60 50

slightly worried

Not Worried

30 20 10

ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

July 2004

June 2004

May 2004

Apr 2004

Dec 2003

June 2003

Mar 2003

Nov 2002

Aug 2002

July 2001

Aug 2000

The Hong Kong Transition Project In contrast to recovery in economic worry rates, concern about Hong Kong’s political stability dropped sharply in 2004, peaking in May following the SC intervention. Table 17 How worried are you about: Hong Kong’s political stability? Not Worried

Slightly worried

Fairly worried

Very Worried

Nov 91 Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Dec 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 April 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00

43 28 35 34 30 32 31 30 28 26 42 35 44 43 45 51 48 45 37 39 43

22 22 22 28 33 25 30 29 34 38 33 35 25 23 22 21 23 25 25 25 23

14 23 17 18 20 25 16 18 18 22 13 16 17 15 20 13 12 14 17 18 15

8 12 12 9 11 7 11 10 10 9 5 7 3 7 5 7 5 6 7 6 7

13 15 14 11 6 12 12 13 10 5 6 7 10 13 8 7 12 11 13 12 12

Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 01 July 01 Nov 01 Aug 02 Nov 02 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

41 38 37 44 40 40 39 37 44 39 27 29 27 30

26 25 25 23 25 22 22 24 21 27 27 25 31 30

16 17 18 16 17 19 21 19 18 19 23 21 23 23

8 10 9 11 13 10 15 13 14 9 14 18 14 12

8 10 10 6 5 9 4 8 3 2 9 8 5 5

60 B

50 40

BBB

B BB

B B

B BB

B BBB

J J JB J B B J JB B BJ B B J J J B B B JH J JJ J JJJ J J J JJ J JJ J J H HH J HJ J H J J H H 20 H H H HHH F HH HH H H HHH HH H HHH H F F F F H H HHH F F FF F F F 10 FFF FF F F F F F F F F F FF FF F F F F F 0

Not Worried

Slightly worried

Fairly worried

Very Worried DK

Nov 91 Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Dec 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 April 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Chart: Worry about Political Stability 100 Very Worried

90 80

Fairly worried

Slightly worried

Not Worried

50 40 30 20 10 Nov 91 Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sept 95 Feb 96 July 96 Dec 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 April 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

This contrast shows up very clearly in the table below which shows respondents ranking among six concerns. Table 18 Of the worries mentioned, which aspect worries you the most? Living Standard

Security/ Freedom

Family prospect

Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sep 95 Feb 96 July 96 Dec 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 2000

11 12 11 13 12 17 14 8 7 11 11 10 9 9 8 10 9 7 9 11

28 29 28 27 25 17 25 19 13 17 14 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 5 6

13 15 12 11 8 11 9 5 6 5 5 7 6 8 6 7 6 10 7 8

18 14 19 15 8 10 9 13 14 9 8 40 46 56 50 49 47 43 41 40

27 26 24 24 23 23 22 16 16 15 15 9 6 5 7 7 7 6 8 16

22 35 30 33 12 13 7 10 6 11 11 11 10

Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Feb 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

12 10 10 7 10 9 9 9 7 8 8 10 7

4 4 3 2 2 2 4 5 3 6 9 10 9

9 7 8 8 10 9 15 12 15 11 12 13 10

42 45 48 57 60 59 59 56 49 36 30 29 40

12 14 11 8 4 8 5 6 11 25 24 25 21

11 6 7 7 4 5 3 3 5 5 5 6 5

©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

HK Econ prospects

Political Stability

Corruption in HK

Gov’t efficiency

9 9 9 5 4 8 7 6 4 6 4 9 6 6 8

DK 3 3 6 10 15 12 12 10 5 7 6 9 10 6 10 10 12 15 9 9

11 14 12 12 10 8 5 7 11 10 12 8 8

The Hong Kong Transition Project Charts of Table 18 Which aspect worries you the most? 60 F FF F F F

Living Standard

Security/ Freedom

Family prospect

HK Econ prospects

2 2 FF J J1 J J 1 111 1 1 1J 1 J 12 1 20 J F F JB 1 1 J 1 H H 11 H F 1 H FB H B B B F FJ J 2 2 H1 HH H B12 1 H H B B B B B 2 2 2 10 H H B B B B B 2 2 F FH JB H B B F F J1H B BH2 1B 1H 1B B 1BH H H H H2 H1B2 1HB B B B B JB JB FH 1 H H H H 1 1 J 2 2 J H H H J 1J J J J JJ 21 J 2 22 2 2 JJ J J 1J2 J J2 2 J 0

Political Stability

Corruption in HK

F 40

F 2

F F

FF F

Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sep 95 Feb 96 July 96 Dec 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Feb 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

100 Corruption in HK

90 80

Living Standard

HK Econ prospects

60 50

Family prospect

Security/ Freedom

30 Political Stability

20 10 Feb 93 Aug 93 Feb 94 Aug 94 Feb 95 Sep 95 Feb 96 July 96 Dec 96 Feb 97 June 97 Jan 98 Apr 98 June 98 July 98 Oct 98 Apr 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Feb 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

The concern with political stability seems to have very little to nothing to do with economics or social unrest, which might be rooted in economic causes. It clearly seems tied to leadership and the political system, as the following tables and charts show. ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 19 Are you worried or not worried about your employment situation ? Not Worried 53 54 50 52 51 53 48 48 47 38 40 36 37 40 45 43 48 46

Oct 98 April 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

slightly worried 17 18 19 20 20 19 20 20 20 20 19 21 20 20 21 23 22 23

fairly worried 10 14 13 14 14 12 13 13 14 19 15 18 19 14 14 15 15 15

Very Worried 17 13 17 14 13 14 18 17 18 21 24 23 22 21 16 13 12 14

Don’t know 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 3 1 4 3 5 3 2

60 50

B B

B B B

B B

Not Worried

slightly worried

fairly worried

Very Worried Don know

1 1 J J J 1 1 J J J J J J HJ J J HJ J1 J J 1 1 1 H J1 J 1 1 H H1 H 1H H1 1 H H H H H H1 H H1 H 1 10 H 20

Oct 98 April 99 July 99 Nov 99 Apr 00 Aug 00 Nov 00 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

And the point made above that Hong Kong’s overall direction of economic development seems to be more the root of continuing unease can be seen in the next table, which shows that concern for the competitiveness of Hong Kong worries, to one degree or another, three out of four respondents.

©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 20 How worried are you about: competitiveness of Hong Kong? Not Worried 28 20 17 10 16 12 17 24 26 21 22

J H 1 B

B J

H J

1H J

Fairly worried 23 26 28 34 28 31 29 25 24 27 26

B H

Very Worried 17 23 24 30 28 24 23 16 13 14 17

Not Worried

Slightly worried

Fairly worried

Very Worried

DK 4 3 3 3 3 4 2 3 4 2 2

June 2004

Slightly worried 28 29 28 24 26 28 29 29 33 36 33

May 2004

Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Mar 2003 June 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 40

5 July 2004

Apr 2004

June 2003

Mar 2003

Apr 2002

Nov 2001

July 2001

Apr 2001

Nov 2000

100 90

Very Worried

Fairly worried

60 50

Slightly worried

Not Worried

30 20 10

ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

July 2004

June 2004

May 2004

Apr 2004

June 2003

Mar 2003

Apr 2002

Nov 2001

July 2001

Apr 2001

Nov 2000

The Hong Kong Transition Project But neither the unease about Hong Kong’s economic future, or concern for political stability, seem rooted in fear of chaos in the streets—social unrest—as clearly appears below. In fact that concern has eased even while worry over political stability has risen.

Table 21 Are you worried/not worried about social unrest in Hong Kong? Oct 1998 April 1999 July 1999 Nov 1999 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Feb 2003 June 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

Not Worried 21 29 35 25 41 31 41 35 39 31 21 27 23 31 35 35 34 37

slightly worried 27 32 29 31 29 31 28 29 25 23 28 26 32 31 32 32 34 34

fairly worried 30 23 22 29 19 21 17 19 20 25 28 26 25 23 18 18 21 19

Very Worried 19 13 10 12 11 15 14 13 13 19 20 20 18 14 10 12 10 8

Don’t know 3 2 3 3 1 1 1 3 2 1 2 1 3 2 5 3 1 1

45 40

B B B JB J J JB J J

B B J J B B 30 H B J J J H J J B J H J J H H 25 J H B J H H B H H B H 20 B1 1 1 H H 1 H H H H 1 H 15 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 1 1 1 1 5

Not Worried

slightly worried

fairly worried

Very Worried Don know

Oct 1998 April 1999 July 1999 Nov 1999 Apr 2000 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Feb 2003 June 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

Nor are people worried that disputes over constitutional reform will cause chaos, as some on the extreme of the so-called pro-Beijing camp have charged. The intervention in April, meant, so its proponents argue, to restore harmony and lessen conflict, has actually raised worries over political stability rather than eased them. Hong Kong people seem confident they can handle their own affairs. It is only Beijing’s intervention that makes them worry about political instability, as the next two charts indicate. ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 22 Are you worried/not worried about constitutional reform disputes causing chaos? April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

Not Worried 28 25 25 33

slightly worried 30 28 32 29

fairly worried 23 24 26 23

Very Worried 12 14 14 11

35 30

J B

25 H

Not Worried

slightly worried

fairly worried

Very Worried

H B

B H

Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know 6 8 3 3

Don know

5 0 April 2004

May 2004

June 2004

July 2004

Table 23 Are you currently worried or not worried about: Free press ? Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Aug 2002 Nov 2002 Feb 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 60 B 50

Not Worried 50 56 53 58 49 46 47 53 46 39 36 42

slightly worried 25 21 23 19 26 23 23 24 26 28 27 29

B B

Very Worried 7 8 8 7 5 12 10 5 10 12 17 10

Not Worried

slightly worried

fairly worried

Very Worried

DK 5 3 4 4 4 3 5 4 2 1 3 2

H 1

Apr 2001

July 2001

Nov 2001

Apr 2002

H 1

J H

J H 1

May 2004

Apr 2004

fairly worried 13 11 12 12 16 16 16 14 15 20 18 17

J H 1

H 1

ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

July 2004

June 2004

Dec 2003

Feb 2003

Nov 2002

Aug 2002

The Hong Kong Transition Project Air and water pollution, however, is one area of concern that continues to trouble more than half the people in Hong Kong at a fairly or very worried level, with one in four very worried about it, though that is a considerable improvement from November 2000, shortly after the September 2000 election. The issue is still one that shows up as a more generalized concern for more people than any other single issue. Table 24 Are you worried or not worried about air and water pollution? Not Worried 6 8 5 7 7 8 16 15 14 18 16 16 15 15 16

July 1999 Nov 1999 April 2000 Aug 2000 Nov 2000 Apr 2001 July 2001 Nov 2001 Apr 2002 Feb 2003 Dec 2003 Apr 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004

slightly worried 18 18 14 17 16 20 22 23 26 25 29 22 31 30 28

fairly worried 34 36 31 31 25 30 28 29 30 29 27 29 25 29 29

Very Worried 35 38 48 44 52 39 34 30 28 26 25 30 26 25 25

Don’t know 4 1 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 2

100 Don know

90 80

Very Worried

fairly worried

slightly worried

50 40

Not Worried

30 20 10 July 2004

May 2004 June 2004

Apr 2004

Feb 2003 Dec 2003

Apr 2002

Nov 2001

July 2001

Apr 2001

Nov 2000

Aug 2000

April 2000

Nov 1999

July 1999

In open ended questions, in terms of the number one issue of greatest concern personally, economics still predominate though they are down considerably from the peak, with political concerns pushing out social concerns since April 2004. And the subsequent table, showing a great extent of dissatisfaction with the government in addressing these issues of most personal concern, seem to be the core elements driving both the desire for changes in the SAR system and for change in its leadership. These may be the most important elements in the coming election, and since Beijing’s intervention did not address them or solve the current local government problems, they pose a potent reservoir of disaffection to be tapped in the electoral contest. ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 25 Which problem of Hong Kong are you most concerned about now personally? Economic growth rate Affordable housing Unemployment Salary cuts, welfare cuts Property, stock markets Int’l competitiveness Other econ. Economic Issues total Education Elderly Crime Medical Pollution/overpopulation Social Issues total Corruption Political stability Freedom of press Freedom to demonstrate Autonomy of HK Fair judges/freedom to travel Competence of Tung & civil servants (all with + above) Political Issues total

Jan 98 38 8 11

Apr 98 32 4 27

Apr 00 13 1 31 6 3 3

Aug 00 16 1 40 6 3 2

Nov 00 22 1 32 4 2 2

July 01 7 1 55 2 2 5 1 73 12 3 3 1 4 23 + 1 + + 1 + +

Apr 02 14 -53 3 1 2 2 75 6 2 1 1 2 12 -2 ----1

Apr 04 23

1 1

Apr 01 12 2 40 4 3 2 1 64 7 4 3 2 4 20 1 2 1 1 1 ---

26 5 1 1 -56 6 1 2 1 2 12 1 18 1 1 1 -1

July 04 12 -34 4 1 3 -54 4 1 3 2 2 12 1 17 2 1 1 -1

57 4 5 6 2 1 18 1 5 2 2 2 3 -

63 3 5 5 1 1 15 1 4 2 1 1 3 -

57 6 3 6 2 10 27 1 4 2 1 2 1 1

68 9 2 4 4 19 5 1 + + 2 1

63 10 2 2 2 2 18 -4 1 1

1+ 10

1+ 3

Table 26 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the government’s performance on this problem? Group Nov 2001 April 2002 April 2004 July 2004 Very satisfied 1 1 1 1 Satisfied 9 11 15 16 Dissatisfied 46 44 36 38 Very dissatisfied 32 31 32 37 Don’t know 8 9 12 4 Not a government problem 4 5 4 4 100 90

Not a government problem

Don know

Very dissatisfied

60 50

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

30 Very satisfied

20 10 0 Nov 2001

April 2002

Apil 2004

July 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Constitutional Issues and the voters Constitutional issues are not just matters of reform but also deal with how the system is working or in this case, perhaps not working. We look particularly at whether or not people are participating in or withdrawing from both formal and informal aspects of the political structure. Thus Table 1 on participation in the sense of contact with various aspects of government and Table 2 on participation in various civil society-type activities.

Table 27 Did you express concern or seek help from any of the following groups in the past 12 months? (% Yes responses only) Contact Government Dept. Contact Direct Elected Legco rep. Contact Legco Funct Rep. Contact District Council/Dist officer Contact Xinhua/China Adviser, NPC Contact Mass Media Contact local group/Kaifong Contact pressure/pol. group Demonstrate/protest Signature Campaign Opinion survey Donate to pol. party

7/ 96 8 7 1 5 6 2 8 44 32 11

6/ 1/ 10/ 7/ 11/ 4/ 11/ 4/ 11/ 4/ 11/ 6/ 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 03 04 10 13 12 10 12 17 12 11 11 10 10 11 6 3 5 6 4 5 6 6 4 3 3 4 1 -1 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 6 6 7 8 1 1 1 1 1 -1 1 --1 5 6 6 5 6 6 5 3 3 4 5 3 7 8 11 8 10 10 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 5 1 2 1 2 1 1 7 5 4 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 26 25 43 41 52 45 51 49 47 36 37 25 45 42 33 37 48 40 47 46 46 39 37 36 40 43 16 18 20 15 17 17 12 15 14 14 16 15

The sharp upturn in demonstrations and protests, though peaceful, shows that people have increasingly adopted the informal means of expressing concern. In effect, they have taken matters into their own hands. While more formal means of expression remain of use, protests, signature campaigns, and donating to political parties outweigh the more formalized elements of our political system. The next table shows that civil society participation, that is NGO support, remains very strong, despite the steep rise in dissatisfaction with the government. Table 28 Have you attended any meetings or activities of one of the following groups in the last six months? (Percentage reporting membership/ attendance/doesn’t add to 100)

Trade Union Professional association Kaifong Mutual Aid Committee Clan Association Political/pressure group Charitable Association Recreational & cultural group Religious group or church Owner’s corporation Environmental group

1/ 98 6 8 7 15 3 1 17 6 20

10/ 98 5 5 8 10 3 1 16 5 20 12 5

7/ 99 5 6 6 8 2 1 13 4 15 11 3

11/ 99 6 6 5 8 2 1 16 7 16 12 4

4/ 00 8 10 5 9 2 2 18 6 21 14 5

11/ 00 6 6 5 6 2 2 16 7 19 14 5

4/ 01 4 5 5 7 2 2 11 5 17 13 4

11/ 01 5 6 4 6 2 2 15 5 19 11 5

4/ 02 5 8 4 6 2 1 15 7 18 12 5

2/ 03 4 8 6 8 3 3 21 6 20 15 6

11/ 03 6 8 5 8 2 2 17 7 21 13 6

4/ 04 6 8 4 7 3 1 16 5 20 15 6

7/ 04 5 7 6 10 3 2 17 6 23 16 6

The conviction that government leadership and accountability need repair has withstood all efforts by the Tung government and Beijing to suppress it, as the table below shows. In principle, support for direct election of all LegCo seats is as strong now as it was before the April SC intervention. ©Hong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 29 Do you support or oppose direct election of all Legco seats? Feb 2003 Nov 03 Apr 04 May 04 June 04 Strongly support 29 29 20 23 26 Support 43 47 44 40 41 Oppose 12 13 17 16 17 Strongly oppose 2 2 4 5 3 Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t Know 14 8 14 15 14 50 45

J J

35 B

Strongly support

Support

Oppose

Strongly oppose Don Know

1 Nov 2003

1 July 2004

May 2004

B H

April 2004

Feb 2003

June 2004

July 04 28 42 19 4 8

100 Don Know

90 80

Strongly oppose

Oppose

60 50

Support

Strongly support

30 20 10 July 2004

June 2004

May 2004

April 2004

Nov 2003

Feb 2003

Tung and Beijing have, however, succeeded in persuading about a third of supporters to shift their target for full direct elections from 2008 to 2012. ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 30 If you support direct elections of all Legco seats, when would you implement? Feb Nov Apr May June July 03 03 04 04 04 04 2008 60 69 44 42 43 43 2012 4 3 11 12 15 17 2016 or later 8 5 9 9 9 10 (DK + opposed) 28 23 36 37 33 30 70

50 B

1 30

B 1

2008

2012

2016 or later

(DK + opposed)

July 2004

Nov 2003

June 2004

H J

J H

May 2004

H J Feb 2003

J H

Apr 2004

100 90

(DK + opposed)

2016 or later

2012

2008

50 40 30 20 10 July 2004

June 2004

May 2004

Apr 2004

Nov 2003

Feb 2003

This same pattern may be observed with direct election of the CE, with the exception that those who support direct election in principle is even higher than for LegCo. ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 31 Do you support or oppose direct election of the Chief Executive? Feb Nov Apr May June July 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 Strongly support 36 33 22 27 29 30 Support 41 48 43 41 42 46 Oppose 10 11 16 17 16 15 Strongly oppose 3 2 1 4 2 2 Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know 10 6 15 11 12 7 50

45 40

1 July 2004

June 2004

Strongly support

Support

Oppose

Strongly oppose Don know

H H

1 Apr 2004

1 May 2004

Nov 2003

Feb 2003

100 Don know

90 80

Strongly oppose

Oppose

60 50

Support

Strongly support

30 20 10 July 2004

June 2004

May 2004

Apr 2004

Nov 2003

Feb 2003

On the issue of when should the CE be directly elected, the same decline from 70 percent favoring 2007 in November 2003 can be seen. A consensus had already clearly formed before, not after, the SC intervention. ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 32 When should direct election of CE be implemented? Feb Nov Apr May 2003 2003 2004 2004 In 2007 63 70 41 43 In 2012 8 6 14 16 Later than 2012 6 4 10 9 (Oppose or Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know) 23 19 35 32 70

B B

60 50

30 1

In 2007

In 2012

Later than 2012

(Oppose or Don know)

1 J

J H

June 2004

July 2004

May 2004

July 2004 42 22 11 24

Apr 2004

Nov 2003

Feb 2003

June 2004 41 19 10 30

100 90

(Oppose or Don know)

Later than 2012

In 2012

In 2007

50 40 30 20 10 July 2004

June 2004

May 2004

Apr 2004

Nov 2003

Feb 2003

The bottom line on the issues of satisfaction, worry and preferences for direct elections is their effect on public opinion as it marks the final weeks going into the September 12 LegCo elections. The next tables examine public opinion on the possibility of a pan-democratic majority in LegCo and whether or not such a majority would spark worries. ÂŠHong Kong Transition Project 2004

The Hong Kong Transition Project Table 33 How possible do you think it is that the democratic camp will win a majority in Legco this September? (July 2004) Group % Highly impossible 2 Somewhat impossible 17 Somewhat possible 46 Highly possible 18 DK 17 Table 34 If the democratic camp wins a majority, how worried would you be that it would negatively affect: (Plan to vote—July 2004) Not slightly somewhat very DK worried worried worried worried efficiency of SAR gov’t 50 22 14 11 3 relations between SAR & 40 27 18 10 4 Beijing HK’s political stability 48 24 15 10 4 HK’s economic prosperity 56 18 14 7 4 HK’s development toward 58 18 12 5 7 direct elections 100 90

very worried

somewhat worried

slightly worried

50 40

Not worried

30 20

HK development toward direct elections

HK economic prosperity

HK political stability

relations between SAR & Beijing

efficiency of SAR gov

The Hong Kong Transition Project Those who support a pan-democratic majority well outweigh those opposed, but by margins likely insufficient for such an event to occur given our peculiar system. There is, nevertheless, great dissatisfaction with pro-government parties, as the subsequent table and chart shows. Table 35 Do you support or oppose the democratic camp to win a majority in Legco? (of Plan to vote) July 2004 Strongly support 19 Support 39 Oppose 18 Strongly oppose 9 Don’t know 15 Table 36 Satisfaction with political parties (ranked in order of dissatisfaction in July 2004) Party Dissatisfied with Satisfied with Number of performance performance respondents Democratic Alliance for the 78 22 654 Betterment of Hong Kong HK Progressive Alliance Federation of Trade Unions Liberal Party Frontier Democratic Party Confederation of Trade Unions HK Assoc. for Democracy & People’s Livelihood Article 45 Concern Group 100

74 54 51 49 48 37

26 46 49 51 52 63

388 566 612 629 652 608

517

557 Satisfied with performance

90 80

Dissatisfied with performance

70 60 50 40 30 20 10

Article 45 Concern Group

HKADPL

Confederation of Trade Unions

Democratic Party

Frontier

Liberal Party

Federation of Trade Unions

HK Progressive Alliance

DAB

The Hong Kong Transition Project At the 95% confidence level, range of error is plus or minus 3 points. Completion rate for the November 2003 survey was 28% of those contacted by telephone. Completion rates range between 28% to 37%. Since the project uses the Kish table to randomly identify the correspondents desired and then schedules a callback if that specific respondent is not at home, the completion rate tends to be lower but the randomization of responses (needed for accurate statistics) tends to be higher than surveys which interview readily available respondents using the next birthday method. Older respondents with this method tend to use traditional Chinese calendar where all “birthdays” are celebrated on the second day of the lunar new year, thus degrading randomization dependent on this method (in lunar calendar using societies in Asia). Respondents are interviewed in Cantonese, Mandarin, English, Hakka and other languages or dialects as they prefer and as interviewers with the language skills needed are available. Other surveys referred to above are Hong Kong Transition Project surveys. The details of those surveys and reports of same may be found on the Hong Kong Transition Project website at http://www.hkbu.edu.hk/~hktp Briefing written by Michael E. DeGolyer. Survey Supervisor, Cheung Puiki. Statistical analysis Michael DeGolyer and Linda Mak. The number of respondents in the HKTP surveys: N=

Nov 91 Feb 93 Feb 94 Feb 95 Feb 96 Feb 97 Jan 98 Apr 99 Apr 00 Apr 01 Apr 02 Mar 03 Apr 04

902 615 636 647 627 546 700 838 704 830 751 790 809

Aug 93 Aug 94 Aug 95 July 96 June 97 April 98 July 99 Aug 00 June 01 Aug 02 June 03 May 04

609 640 645 928 1,129 852 815 625; 808 721 776 833

Dec 96 326 June 98 625

July 98

647

Aug 00 1059 Jul (media ) 831

Oct 00 721 Jul (party) 1029

June 04* 680

Nov 03 July 04

835 995*

Oct 98 Nov 99 Nov 00 Nov 01 Nov 02 Dec 03 July 04* Sept 04*

811 813 801 759 814 709 695

Aug 04* Oct 04

*permanent residents, registered voters only (part of a special election series) All Figures are in percentages unless otherwise stated All references should be to Civic Exchange and the Hong Kong Transition Project, which has project members at Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong University, University of Macau and Lingnan University. The Hong Kong Transition Project is funded via a competitive grant from the Research Grants Council of the University Grants Committee of the Hong Kong Government (HKBU 2033/01H is the most recent). None of the institutions mentioned above is responsible for any of the views expressed herein.

Civic Exchange website address: www.civic-exchange.org Hong Kong Transition Project website: www.hkbu.edu.hk/~hktp