Drought in China
Michelle Lam
Drought in China An exploration into the nation’s regional water shortages By: Michelle Lam, Intern for Civic Exchange 2001 [King George V School]
Of all natural hazards, drought is the most prolonged and extensive. China is a country paradoxically affected by both flooding and drought simultaneously. There is an excess of water in the south and very little of it in the north. With 16 million people constantly lacking adequate drinking water, the Central Government is pouring unprecedented amounts of money into both short-term projects that would alleviate present strains and long-term projects that are to eventually solve China’s water problem. This essay will explore the why and how the situation has reached this point, looking into causes, effects and proposed solutions. Drought can be defined as the consequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation received over an extended period of time. However its effects accumulate slowly and are far-reaching and complex. Although being a normal part of climate, drought is increasingly seen as a natural disaster, as implications with demands made by human activity on a region’s water supplies greatly aggravate the situation. There is no universal scale on which to rate the severity of droughts, but the situation in China has reached a stage where no one is questioning its existence and severity. Currently the northeast and southwest parts of China are suffering yet another year of droughts. With spring rainfall down 90% and some areas with no rain for over 100 days, reservoir levels have fallen, in some cases by 48% and figures now show that 400 out of China’s 668 cities face water shortages. According to the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters (SFCDRH), 20 provinces are affected and in mid-June 2001, over 22.6 million people had inadequate supplies of drinking water. More than 23 million hectares of cropland are affected, of which 8.9 million will produce no crops at all and 4.26 million are so dry that they are not suitable for planting. Desertification, dust storms and plagues of locusts worsen farmers’ plights. Violent storms in mid-June have brought some relief however dry conditions persist. It is ever more evident that the problem is not just one of a recurring natural decrease in rain, but a wider problem of water shortage and the situation is continually worsening. As in all cycles there must be a balance between input and output for sustainability. Unfortunately, the hydrological cycle in drought-stricken parts of China has been in a state of imbalance for decades, with demand greatly outstripping supply. The resulting deficits are now surfacing and are most evident in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain Region (covering the lower reaches of the Yellow River, the valleys of the Huai and Hai Rivers, the North China Plain, Loess Plateau and Inner Mongolia Plateau). This region has been affected by drought 25-35 times in the past 40 years. The only input into the hydrological cycle is precipitation, thus the most visible cause of scarcity is the decline in rainfall. According to senior engineer at the National Climate Centre, Lu Juntian, areas of northern China received an average of 49 millimetres of rain from February to May this year, a record low for the past 50 years. This spell of hot, dry, dusty weather is affecting vast regions and extends to the Korean Peninsula and far into Mongolia. South Korea’s Meteorological Administration’s Park Chung-kyu says an extremely hot atmospheric condition prevailing over northern China
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Drought in China
Michelle Lam
blocks the northward movement of wet, low-pressure fronts from the south. He also blames global warming, putting a human cause to this weather-induced phenomenon. Xie Zhen-hua, head of China’s State Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), has also said “some here in China say that the drought is related to ongoing global warming, while other people consider the drought to be related to periodic climatic change.” Climatic changes may be beyond the control of man, however Xie cites environmental destruction wrought by the hands of man as a main contributing factor to the severity of the problem. Valuable potential water stores are lost to deforestation and reclamation of wetlands. Trees form large catchments, provide cover and the roots hold the soil and water together. The clearing of forests in the upper reaches of most tributaries has led to the demise of many of these feeding rivers, while dust storms and soil erosion are now widespread. There were 12 dust storms from February to May this year, worsening the drought conditions as the sand-laden winds drained the soil’s moisture content. Another human interference in supply is pollution. Recent water quality monitoring inspections were conducted on 100,000 kilometres of river sections of the country’s 700 large and medium-sized rivers. According to the China News Service, results have reflected that half the inspected sections are polluted and 10 percent severely, not even meeting the state’s lowest requirements. It is estimated that 700 million of China’s 1.3 billion people drink contaminated water. Although China has adequate environmental legislation, implementing the laws is another matter and standards are lax. About 30 billion tonnes of urban sewage are discharged each year into China’s water systems. Untreated industrial waste and fertiliser runoffs from fields have collectively rendered rivers not suitable for use. Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute has said, “the Yellow river is now so loaded with heavy metals and other toxins that it is unfit even for irrigation, much less for human consumption.” With input cutback, the demand on water has only increased. The most obvious factors contributing to this is population growth, industrialisation and urbanisation. China is the world’s most populous country and figures project an addition of 126 million people between now and 2010 despite a small growth rate of only 0.9%. Adding on to this inevitable growth is unbridled industrialisation. A developing country, China is vying for economic progression and is the fastest growing economy in the world. The World Bank projects that the nation’s industrial water demand will increase by 62% in the next 10 years from 127 billion cubic metres to 206 billion. As people look to the cities for better-paying jobs, urbanisation is set to expand and urban water demands are estimated to increase from 50 billion cubic metres to 80 billion, a growth of 60 percent. All three mentioned growths lead to more consumption and together with rising affluence the strains on the already tight resources are set to intensify. Demand-side factors have also exacerbated the supply conditions. The Yellow River, the second largest river in China, has flowed continuously for thousands of years. Exhaustive use has led it to run dry for the first time in 1972, failing to reach the sea for 15 days. Since then it has run dry sporadically. As a fitting indicator of the worsening situation, from 1985 the river has run dry for part of each year. In 1997, a drought year, the Yellow River failed to reach the sea for a record 226 days. For most of the year, a large number of riverbeds in northern China remain broad expanses of mud and gravel. Also groundwater is over-exploited. Millennia-old aquifers are being depleted at an unsustainable rate. Under the region known as the North China Plain the water table
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Drought in China
Michelle Lam
is dropping at a rate of 1.5 metres per year. This area that stretches from just north of Shanghai to well north of Beijing produces 40% of China’s grain. According to Lester Brown, pumping is going on at twice the recharge rate. Since the 1960s Beijing has been greatly over-exploiting its groundwater reserves, relying on this limited source to survive through past shortages. The subterranean stores have not been given the time or the opportunity to replenish as a vast system of dams and reservoirs prevent rain and floodwaters from filtering underground. This has led to wells drying up and concentrations of pollutants building up. One more side effect of the falling water tables is subsidence. As water is pumped out, the ground can no longer hold as much weight and in can eventually give way and collapse. Tianjin officials say no buildings in the city centre have collapsed as a result of subsidence, although areas have sunk by 1 metre. While causes can seem varied and in some cases indirect, the impacts are diverse and can be differentiated as direct or indirect, singular or cumulative, immediate or delayed. The most noticeable changes that can be attributed to drought are the direct and immediate impacts. In rural areas, such impacts are most evident in agriculture as reduced rain means less water for crops. This is particularly bad news for farmers, coming during the spring planting season. The north of China is the country’s most important growing region, with two thirds of the country’s cropland but only one fifth of the water. As a result the water per hectare of cropland in the north is one eighth that of the south and nearly 70% of the grain harvest comes from irrigated land. As mentioned previously, the water table under North China Plain is falling at a rate of 1.5 metres per year. Wells are running dry and many farmers cannot afford to dig deeper. In Tianjin alone, a third of the farmland was left idle last year, on top of a 50% drop in grain production seen the year before. Farmers are increasingly faced with the complication of competition for water. Already they are losing out as water is being diverted to cities and industry. Despite the effort for grain self-sufficiency, Beijing has been clear in its priorities; urban areas are to be given precedence over rural areas. Last year, the Central Government diverted Yellow River water from drought-stricken regions in Shandong to keep Tianjin, China’s third largest industrial city running. And to keep the Yellow River flowing, Beijing had also ordered all up-stream provinces to empty their reservoirs to ensure a continual flow, effectively transferring the burden of supplying Tianjin with water to far poorer parts of the country’s interior. For years, farmers have been forced into using untreated industrial waste for irrigation. Studies have shown that heavy metals are building up in food chains yet officials are reluctant admit a link is being made to the unusually high rates of cancer in the area. No improvement to this situation is in sight, as the economics of water use do not favour agriculture says Lester Brown. In China, a thousand tonnes of water produces one ton of wheat, worth around US$200. This cannot compare to the US$14000 output the same amount of water can produce in industry. With annual economic growth projected at 7% and as the need for jobs continue to grow, the gain in diverting water is obvious. Farmers are earning a third of what urban workers bring home and many are now selling their water rights to industry. This does not mean to say that industries shall continue to operate while the people lack basic water. Vice-premier Wen Jiabao, head of the SFCDRH, has said that with the quota system set to be introduced, urban areas should be given priority over industry in the allocating of water. Major drought-stricken cities have closed public baths, saunas, and other entertainment centres. Tianjin has also ordered citizens to limit
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Drought in China
Michelle Lam
themselves to eight cubic metres of water a month, outlawing the use of water for washing cars and other inessential activities. Mr Wen also said enterprises that consumed huge amounts of water and caused serious pollution should be closed. Conflict has also arisen between provinces and cities. Battle to control the Yellow River’s waters now reaches along its entire 5,000 kilometres. We may soon reach the stage where everyone takes their share and the river dries up permanently. Water use in the upper reaches has tripled in the past 30 years, and altogether 3,380 reservoirs have been built in the Yellow River basin, which can hold 90% of its natural water resources. While some areas have had their burdens increased, other more important areas such as Beijing and Tianjin do not lack the political will and money to obtain approval for their projects. The State Council has approved a five-year plan to ease water shortages in and around the capital by recycling wastewater and exploiting new water resources. US$900 million will be provided by the Central Government while Beijing city will provide US$2 billion to fund the US$2.9 billion project. Part of the funds shall be raised through raised water prices. The Beijing city government will triple water prices by 2005 from the present 2 yuan per tonne to 6 yuan per tonne. Environmentalists have long called for higher water prices to curb water consumption, however others fear a sudden price rise could spark widespread social unrest among a population accustomed to cheap or free water. Though an unpopular move that could force more people into economic hardship, there is no denying the need to raise water prices. The Guangming daily has once pointed out “1000 tonnes [of Yellow River water] costs less than a bottle of mineral water”. The price of water must be raised to better reflect its cost, says Lester Brown. Only then will it be easier to shift to costlier water-efficient crops and technology. Environmentalists have also called for smaller-scale changes such as increased afforestation, development of dry farming and water recycling. Water use efficiency is very low in China. According to the China News Service, in agriculture, the water use for producing 1 unit of food is 2-2.5 times that in developed countries. In industry the water efficiency is 75% lower than the developed countries. While the government clearly blames lack of rainfall for the drought conditions, some academics believe this water crisis is man-made. Zhang Jiacheng of China’s Meteorological Science Research Institute holds poor water resources management responsible, saying the amount of water wasted in irrigation is “astonishing”. 98% of state-owned water enterprises lose money. He concludes: “what China lacks is science”. Many experts are less outspoken and are wary of openly challenging the philosophy behind the management of water resources in the past 50 years. The huge and costly dams and canals built have always been a source of national pride. Researchers instead now focus on improving the existing system, where currently about half the water retained in reservoirs for irrigation is thought to be misused, stolen or diverted. Top officials and government departments still believe in the need for more drastic action. The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference said: “saving water cannot possibly reverse the trend of water shortage fundamentally.” Plans first proposed by Chairman Mao to divert billions of tonnes of water from the Yangtze in the south of the country to the Yellow in the north with a huge pipeline and canal network have since been revived. China’s natural water system has been replaced by a vast and costly series of dams, reservoirs, tunnels and canals, most of which were built since 1949. Yet the shortages are worsening year after year, provoking much debate.
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Drought in China
Michelle Lam
The first stages of the Yangtze diversion alone could cost up to US$18 billion. Enormous technical difficulties have held back the project although it is set to be given the green light within a year. This huge venture would link the Yangtze to the Yellow and the Huai River and is to eventually solve the country’s water problem. However critics and environmentalists argue otherwise. Experts say that the Yangtze would run dry in 30 years and that the project itself would lead to social displacement and corruption as with the Three Gorges Dam project. Zhu Ronji’s high-profile backing means this 15-year-long project is most likely to proceed. The government’s resolve to push ahead with this project is a clear indicator of the severity of the problem. There is no denying that if the situation continues to worsen, the consequences will be devastating as can be seen in other countries in similar circumstances. India too is currently gripped in long-term water shortages and there are many parallels between the two countries. Both for the latter-half of the twentieth century have resorted to nationwide systems of dams and canals to solve the water problem and to little success. Yet, in dealing with the problem, the two countries take on different approaches. In India, few politicians are ready to make decisions that would hurt cash crops and businesses. While no city has 24-hour running water, water amusement parks are still running on fresh water. Protests have become a usual sight and opposition to government projects are more vocal. As yet there have been few reports of unrest in China, and hopefully measures the government have taken are enough to halt the widening water deficit and eventually reverse it. This water shortage is gripping a large part of the country and has the potential to bring development to a standstill. There is an urgency to deal with the water problem in a sustainable way.
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