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Commercial
The commercial investment market
Powering up demand
Scottish ports and harbours
Edinburgh office market
Scotland 2024 Are opportunities being missed?
The installation of 10 EV chargers to Orbital House in East Kilbride.
A vital and vibrant part of our collective infrastructure for centuries.
Get more bang for your buck and the shift in working habits.
Winter 2024
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| Commercial Matters | Winter 2024
Welcome to Commercial Matters Winter 2024 Welcome to our Winter 2024 edition of Commercial Matters. Since our last publication there never seems to be a point in time where economic or political events aren’t impacting the markets in some way. In this edition we are looking at the markets within which we work, how they have changed over the last few years and why. We are also looking to the future with new working practices, new technologies and how this impacts those markets. Many different factors have contributed to shaping the working and market environments of today, so we have reflected on how the events of last few years have influenced this. Office environments have changed on the back of the Covid pandemic, industrial property continues to perform well and physical retail seems to be bouncing back after the initial impact of the pandemic and the online shopping revolution. Town and city centres are reinventing themselves, becoming more experiential and starting to incorporate smart, modern residential options. Environmental considerations are front and centre across all sectors and the markets are adapting
(some more easily than others) to cater for this. We are all now digesting the effects of the new Government’s first Budget and the potential impacts of the forthcoming Trump presidency following the US election. No doubt both events will cause change and impact the markets further. At Galbraith we will continue to analyse this, anticipate changes and investigate the inevitable opportunities it creates while looking to mitigate any risks for our clients going forward. We hope you enjoy this edition of Commercial Matters and find the content interesting and useful. Should you wish to further information on any of the topics discussed, please contact a member of the team, they would love to hear from you. n
Jamie Thain 07798 647 620 jamie.thain@galbraithgroup.com
Galbraith is a leading independent property consultancy. Drawing on a century of experience in land and property management the firm is progressive and dynamic employing over 200 people in offices throughout Scotland and the North of England. We provide a full range of property consulting services across the commercial, residential, rural and energy sectors. Galbraith provides a personal service, listening to clients and delivering advice to suit their particular opportunities and circumstances.
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Contents 4 The commercial investment market in Scotland 2024 and how we got here.
10 Refurbishment not redevelopment favoured in Scotland’s warehouse sector.
18 Investment deals.
15 The devolution of empty property relief.
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25 Agency and other deals.
Powering up demand.
16 Scottish investment review cycles.
22 Edinburgh office market. Get more bang for your buck.
23
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Scottish Ports and Harbours.
Edinburgh office market. Challenges imposed on future development.
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The commercial investment market in Scotland 2024 and how we got here. Are opportunities being missed? We think so!
‘Covid’ There is no doubt that the COVID Pandemic changed a lot of things in the world and more specifically the world of work and the commercial buildings we work in, but were these changes going to happen anyway, and only accelerated by the immediacy of measures required to combat the pandemic? I remember back in 2020, after around three months of working from the kitchen table, restrictions were such that I could finally go and inspect an industrial property which we were instructed to sell in Scotland’s Central Belt industrial heartland. Having ventured no further than the boundaries of Edinburgh on my bike until then, it was a shock to see the industrial estates full of cars, trucks and people and OK, there were masks, PPE and distancing rules in place but compared to the inner city, which at the time was like a ghost town, it was almost like nothing had changed. The reason for this was of course that the majority of these businesses were providing what was considered essential services. Producing and delivering the things that we all needed to exist at home in our bubbles. It’s well-rehearsed how online retailing has shifted the balance between high street retailing and warehousing & distribution over the last ten years or so but it was a real light bulb moment for me and despite having spent a career buying and selling industrial properties, the essential value of their many and varied contributions to society as a whole really hit home. A further year went by before we started venturing back into our offices in any meaningful way and by then we had all learned that it was possible, even if not always desirable or ideal, to work from home if necessary. That has created a shift in how those of us who work in offices use and interact with them. Many, if not all businesses and organisations, now have some level of flexible working arrangements in place for their staff. It seems likely that this is one change that was not caused by the pandemic but was significantly accelerated by it. ‘Working Patterns’ As far as offices go, the result is less people occupying the same offices at any one time, some working from home and some from the office. The other shift we have seen is how those offices are used, with more breakout and collaboration spaces for staff to use whilst in the office. Creating more attractive places to come to work when compared to offices of old and also promoting more collaboration whilst there. Pre-pandemic, Grade A offices were one of the best performing and most sought-after assets, a stalwart of the investment market in Scotland and in fact all major cities, attracting significant domestic and overseas investor interest. Broadly speaking, yields in Scotland’s major cities ranged between 4.50% and 5.50%. Most businesses are now more sensitive to their environmental credentials and large office occupiers are some of the most active in ensuring they are as green as possible. There has been a focus from such occupiers over recent years to target buildings with the highest ESG credentials which has led to competition for the newest buildings providing these credentials, in most cities across the country. So, what about all the other office buildings in our towns and cities? We used to talk about Grade A, Grade B etc but what happens now when a 10- or 15year-old Grade A city centre office doesn’t meet
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today’s high standards of green credentials sought after by occupiers? After all, they are still prime buildings in prime locations and are smart, properly functioning properties.
1 West Regent Street, Glasgow
For the most part, if such assets are being traded now the prices generally factor in the capital expenditure required for a full ESG refit, which can be significant if full M&E replacement is required. That usually involves the vendor/owner taking a significant valuation hit and so it’s little surprise that we have seen few of them traded in the last couple of years. By way of illustration 1 West Regent Street in Glasgow, a 143,000 sq ft Grade A office in Glasgow’s CBD built 2015, sold in April 2024 for £45.8 million which reflected a net initial yield of 8.68%.
‘Investor Confidence’ In general, there seems to have been less investor confidence in the office sector over the last 4 years as all of these factors, the pandemic, changing working patterns, type of space and ESG credentials are considerations factored in by investors. Taking a step back though we feel that there has been an overcorrection in pricing for some very good offices and that creates opportunity going forward. The disconnect becomes fascinating when underlying occupational markets are assessed. Particularly in Edinburgh, there is a significant lack of supply of Grade A space and a pent-up demand from a variety of business sectors seeking high quality office space. The result is conservative rent-free incentives and significant ongoing rental growth. It
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9 year old Grade A CBD office.
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Area (NIA): 143,000 sq ft.
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WAULT: 7.7 years to expiry and 4.6 years to breaks.
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Tenants: The Weir Group plc, Global Radio Services Limited, FDM Group Limited, Regus Holdings plc, Ove Arup & Partners International Limited, CMS Cameron McKenna Nabarro Olswang LLP, Morton Fraser LLP and Shepherd and Wedderburn LLP.
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Transaction Date: April 2024.
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Price: £45.8 million reflecting a net initial yield of 8.68%.
feels like the City’s Prime Grade A rents have gone from £35 psf to £45 psf almost overnight and they are still increasing, certain commentators suggesting the market could break through £55 psf in 2025. Equally, the above trend could accelerate the cyclical trend for out-of-town offices. We have seen this cycle before, when core CBD market rents accelerate, occupiers often consider out of town options, which in Scotland can easily be less than half of the CBD occupational cost. The retail and leisure sectors were also hit badly by the pandemic with shops, restaurants and other leisure operations having to close their doors for significant periods and resulting in no income generation from their physical property assets during that time.
Although affected too, out of town retail fared better, especially food or DIY anchored parks, as people continued to need grocery and household supplies and many DIY projects were undertaken over the period. The car-based journeys and larger formats of these parks allowed for easier social distancing and therefore many of the businesses there continued to trade throughout. UK institutions underwent a large retail warehousing sell off in 2020/2021, selling liquid assets on the back of redemptions and other factors. Yields dropped quickly to around 6.00% for prime assets in Scotland, then moved out to around 7.00% and have now generally stabilised. This trend has been acutely impacted by the weight of aggressive, deployable funds from specific US REIT buyer Realty Income who entered the market with
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significant resource at a time where there was limited competition. We anticipate the next movement of the dial in this sector will be determined by rental growth prospects going forward. We will watch with interest, familiar with the defensive approach of some retailers when it comes to rent increases. ‘Industrial Demand’ The result of all of this was that the Industrial Investment sector was seen as very attractive by investors pre, during and immediately post COVID. And for good reason, interest rates were at historically low levels, the fundamentals of the sector were sound, with strong tenant demand and a lack of supply due to the low levels of speculative development in previous years. From an ESG perspective it is also, comparatively speaking, much easier to achieve good or improved positive environmental characteristics as the buildings themselves are more simple in their construction than offices or hotels. Due to the strength of the industrial occupational market and a reduced level of appetite from investors for other sectors there was significant demand created for industrial investments across the country. This led to competition for the best assets and yield compression
across the whole sector. More acutely for prime assets, where yields compressed to circa 4.50% but the strength of interest in the sector created demand for and yield compression in much more secondary stock too. ‘Market shock’ This all started to change in mid-2022 when interest rates started to rise on the back of inflationary pressures and the disastrous Truss/Kwarteng ‘Mini Budget’ made things exponentially worse very quickly. Coupled with the war in Ukraine and rising prices for energy and raw materials we entered a perfect storm and valuations across the Commercial Property Sector were subject to correction almost overnight. With interest rates at over 5.00%, ‘all in’ commercial property debt rates of circa 8.00% and leveraged buyers (i.e. most property companies) targeting a margin above this on new investments, only cash buyers such as institutional investors, overseas investors, family offices and HNW investors could really participate below these levels. Debt backed REITS were essentially out of the market too and some remain so.
No prime offices traded in Scotland for reasons stated above, although some well-located Grade B or older Grade A buildings were bought opportunistically at high yields. By way of illustration 40 Princes Street in Edinburgh, an 81,000 sq ft Grade A office in Edinburgh’s CBD built 2005, sold in August 2023 for £30.67 million which reflected a net initial yield of 7.70%. There was some activity in the Industrial sector but with assets changing hands at a significant discount to prices seen a year or two before, there was little appetite from potential sellers. One prime asset which did sell was 51 McNeil Drive, Eurocentral, a 52,000 sq ft warehouse/logistics unit let to Biffa Waste Services with 10.5 years term certain. The property sold in September 2023 for £6.745 million – 6.20%. Opportunism was also seen in the Retail / Retail Warehouse sector with some assets located in prime high street locations trading at historically high yields. High street assets with rebased rents were favoured or a future rebased position was being factored into pricing.
2022 was a year of two halves and 2023 was a difficult year for the sector all the way through.
40 Princess Street, Edinburgh n
Grade A office in Edinburgh’s CBD built in 2005.
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Area (NIA): 81,000 sq ft.
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WAULT: 6.74 years to expiry and 5.69 years to breaks.
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Tenants: H&M Hennes & Mauritz UK Limited, Multrees Investor Services Limited, Canaccord Genuity Wealth Limited, Red Rock Power Limited, abrdn Plc and Cubo Holdings Limited.
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Transaction Date: August 2023.
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Price: £30.67 million reflecting a net initial yield of 7.70%.
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51 McNeil Drive, Eurocentral
There seems to be more confidence in general in the office sector as working patterns stabilise and more people are in their offices more often...
‘Market Recovery’ Signs of light started to emerge late last year with more significant transactions taking place, albeit at today’s prices. A number of larger industrial holdings have changed hands in Glasgow and prime Central Belt estates at what would now be considered strong ‘today’s’ prices. We are now over half way through 2024 and the market continues to improve slowly. Property companies backed by institutional / private equity and some funds dominate interest in the prime industrial market and pricing remains strong for good quality assets in the Central Belt.
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Prime warehouse/logistics unit built in 2009.
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Area (GIA): 52,000 sq ft.
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Tenant: Biffa Waste Services Limited.
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Term: 21 years with 10.5 years term certain income.
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Transaction Date: September 2023.
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Price: £6.745 million reflecting a net initial yield of 6.20%.
One or two prime offices with up-todate green credentials are now being exposed to the market and receiving significant interest from institutional capital and overseas equity. One such building is the 70,000 sq ft Mint Building in Edinburgh which was presented to the market in May at offers over £41 million – 6.00% and has been sold to Pontegadea, the property investment firm owned by Spain’s richest man Amancio Ortega) for £42.5 million, reflecting a yield of 5.78%.
Jamie Thain
120 Buchanan Street, Glasgow n
Prime retail unit on one of UK’s busiest high streets.
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Pre-let to Laings the Jeweller at expiry of current lease to Diesel (circa 6 moths income).
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11 year lease at a rebased rent.
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Transaction Date: June 2022.
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Price: £4.7 million reflecting a stabilised yield upon new lease of 5.79%.
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100 Cambuslang Road, Glasgow n
Prime warehouse/logistics.
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Area (GIA): 49,150 sq ft.
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Term: Lease Expiry 30 October 2027.
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Tenant: Royal Mail Group Limited.
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Transaction date: November 2023.
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Price: £6,346,450 million reflecting a net initial yield of 6.00%.
There seems to be more confidence in general in the office sector as working patterns stabilise and more people are in their offices more often. In this regard Edinburgh fares better than Glasgow due to the type of occupiers occupying most of the respective city’s offices and the different geographies leading to different commuting regimes. That being said, we have recently seen Virgin Money taking back circa 100,000 sq ft of offices at 177 Bothwell Street in Glasgow which they were previously planning to sublet. The company leased a total of 138,000 sq ft in the prime Glasgow office in 2019 but then decided to sub-let 100,000 sq ft following a move to flexible working during the pandemic. Following Nationwide’s £2.9 billion deal to buy Virgin Money, they will now occupy the space themselves. Flexible working patterns are here to stay but many companies have now either moved, resized or refitted their space to accommodate the need for more collaborative space and improve their ESG credentials. Some have even gone a bit too far and are now finding that they have more staff wanting to be in the office than desks to accommodate them all. Not all businesses can afford to occupy the very best, greenest, office space but most are still looking for aspects of this in the space they occupy. There is definite demand from investors to buy older Grade A or Grade B properties with a view to either fully refitting them or at least improving them as far as possible to cater for such occupiers. There has been a flurry of interest in Aberdeen offices over the last 6 month too, where opportunistic buyers are achieving yields of between 15.00% and 20.00% whilst the city is out of favour with the investment market due to its exposure to the Oil & Gas Industry. It is, after all, still a major Scottish city with links to the wider energy sector, including green energy and a at some point a further 30 year decommissioning process to be undertaken in the North Sea. Good quality, well located offices should still attract occupier interest going forward. Ardent West, a 47,000 sq ft Grade A office located on Aberdeen’s North Esplanade was purchased by David Samuel Management for £7.65 million, reflecting a net initial yield of 18.48%.
Mint Building, Edinburgh n
Prime Grade A Edinburgh office with ground floor retail/leisure.
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Completed 2019.
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Area (NIA): 70,467 sq ft.
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WAULT: 10.2 years.
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Transaction Date: Late June 2024.
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Price: £42.5 million reflecting a net initial yield of 5.78%.
High street retail trade has recovered and new occupiers are emerging in good locations where rents are rebased and where high streets are not over retailed. Both Edinburgh and Glasgow are even seeing some modest growth in rents for prime assets where they were rebased
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8. Ardent West, Aberdeen n
Grade A office in Aberdeen built in 2015.
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Area (NIA): 46,743 sq ft.
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Term: lease expiry December 2030.
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Long Leasehold.
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Tenant: PD7MS Energy.
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Transaction Date: May 2024.
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Price £7.65 million reflecting a net initial yield of 18.48%.
9. Craigleith Retail Park, Edinburgh n
Vendor: Nuveen.
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Purchaser: Realty Income Corporation.
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Area: 182,180 sq ft.
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Anchor Tenants: TK Maxx, M&S and LIDL.
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Transaction Date: August 2023.
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Price: £62.4 million reflecting a net initial yield of 7.80%.
177 Bothwell Street, Glasgow n
Virgin Money occupy 138,000 sq ft.
some time ago. Investment activity in the sector is growing on the back of this. Buchanan Street in Glasgow has next to no void and during Q2 2024 Lothian Pension Fund acquired 2 units at circa 6.10%. We have seen a number of retail parks trade in the last year too. One of the most notable was Craigleith Retail Park in Edinburgh which was sold by Nuveen to Realty Income Corporation for £62.4 million reflecting a 7.80% net initial yield. Again, the yield achieved reflected a discount to pre-2022 levels. ‘Alternatives’ We haven’t really touched on the Alternative Sectors yet in this article, but they are worthy of note. Whilst institutional investors have been fairly absent across traditional sectors, BTR (Build to Rent residential) and PBSA (Purpose Built Student Accommodation) has remained extremely popular with them. The investment fundamentals differ from that of traditional commercial stock. The occupational demand is evident. We have seen continued BTR demand from institutional investors, however, on a global scale the UK sits behind many other countries. Some remain sceptical of the value inflation potential
when management and maintenance are layered in and are concerned about affordability alongside potential government regulations or interference, especially in Scotland. Overall yield trends are fairly flat, we anticipate a further 5 to 10 years is required to see a trend due to the property specifics. ‘The here and now’ Market demand across all sectors has been very targeted over the last couple of years for the reasons stated above. Requirements have either been driven by ‘debt plus margin’ investment strategies, normally requiring asset management angles to create additional performance and looking for significant downside risk protection; or have been from cash buyers. Those cash buyers have either been private investors / family offices whose requirements tend to top out above £5 million or more institutional equity looking for minimum lot sizes of £10 million to £15 million and in some cases £25m plus I said at the beginning of this article that we think opportunities are being missed. There remains a significant number of good quality, cross sector assets, some with solid income and
some with asset management potential that could be bought/sold but the requirements just haven’t been there for them. That said, there does seem to be more activity and more depth to the market starting to appear. We hope this continues and accelerates, especially on the back of the election result, the first interest rate cut in a couple of years and as more transactions lead to more confidence in the market across the sectors. In the meantime, the Galbraith Investment Team would be happy to assist with any investment questions you may have and even better, target some of those missed opportunities with you! n
Jamie Thain 07798 647 620 jamie.thain@galbraithgroup.com
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Refurbishment not favoured in Scotland’s Westway, Renfewshire Two units are being developed by Canmoor extending to 202,000 & 86,600 sq ft.
Delta-70, Bellshill A single 70,000 sq ft warehouse being developed by Knight Property Group.
The shortage of new build industrial stock in Scotland is not a new talking point. The trend is however particularly evident at the moment, primarily due to the increased build costs and softening investment yields.
In the West of Scotland, we understand that less than 500,000 sq ft is currently planned or under construction over the next 12 months on a speculative basis. This short-term development pipeline comprises predominantly Canmoor’s construction of two warehouses extending to 202,000 sq ft and 86,600 sq ft, which are both due for completion by the end of 2024, as well as Knight Property’s proposed single 70,000 sq ft warehouse at Delta-70 in Bellshill.
New build schemes have benefitted from strong take-up as shown by Knight Property recently completing lettings to Wincanton (127,000 sq ft) and Bunzl (30,000 sq ft) at Belgrave Logistics Park, Bellshill, as well as West Ranga Property Group letting the neighbouring new build warehouse, Connect-70 (70,000 sq ft), to Micheldever Tyres. Similarly, Cedarwood Asset Management let their 42,000 sq ft unit at Tannochside soon after practical completion. Record rents are being achieved for the best mid to largebox new build developments of
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redevelopment warehouse sector EDI Approach A 750,000 sq ft scheme being developed by GSS Developments.
Eliburn Industrial Estate, Livingston
Melville Green, Sheriffhall South
A 27,000 sq ft industrial scheme being developed by Northern Trust.
A 40,000 sq ft industrial scheme being developed by Buccleuch Property.
£9.00 - £10.50 per sq ft, which is likely to be surpassed in the next 12 months. In the East of Scotland, GSS Developments have secured planning permission for their speculative industrial scheme at EDI Approach in Newbridge, which has an overall size of 750,000 sq ft of industrial, distribution and manufacturing accommodation. The scheme is due to start with an initial speculative phase of 130,000 sq ft of small to mid-box trade counter and industrial units ranging from 2,000 to 25,000 sq ft.
In addition, small-box industrial schemes are being developed by Northern Trust and Buccleuch at Eliburn Industrial Estate, Livingston and Melville Green, Sheriffhall South, respectively. With the current market environment proving prohibitive for the development of new industrial stock, we are seeing investors and developers turning to comprehensive refurbishments rather than complete redevelopment. It is a substantially less costly process with there only being a small rental discount for wellrefurbished secondary space in
comparison to new-build accommodation. An example of this can be seen at JCAM’s Newbridge Link within Newbridge Industrial Estate, where an obsolete ex-engineering warehouse has been fully refurbished with two-thirds of the space (112,000 sq ft) being let to Kloeckner Metals UK prior to the completion of the refurbishment works. n
Jamie Addison-Scott 07824 435 094 jamie.addison-Scott@galbraithgroup.com
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POWERING UP DEMAND Galbraith has been the managing agent of Orbital House in East Kilbride since 2011. The property is a four story multi-let office building with access to a substantial car park boasting 320 spaces. The building is made up of four wings on each floor with a total floor area of circa 69,358 sq. ft.
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The chargers are private, and therefore can only be used by our tenants via an app, again with the benefit of the tenants in mind.
Throughout Galbraith’s tenure as both Asset and Property Manager of Orbital House, we have been involved in a number of initiatives and projects, with the most recent involving the car park. This project involved extensive works to the car park including re-surfacing, numbering and re-lining the bays, however the main element of the works was the installation of 10 EV chargers to cater for the increasing number of electric vehicles visiting the property. The provision of EV charging points in office buildings is becoming increasingly sought-after, as both landlords and tenants seek to increase their participation in ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) initiatives. The installation of EV chargers is an extremely popular way for landlords and tenants to improve the environmental impact of a building. With Orbital House being an out-of-town office building, most employees will drive to work and having a facility allowing individuals to charge their vehicles whilst they work will encourage more to drive their electric car to site. Orbital House benefits from a wide range of occupiers, covering an array of different business sectors. Each tenant therefore has different requirements when it comes to their tenancies and providing charging for electric vehicles adds to the flexibility of Orbital House. In general, providing this service as a
landlord increases the number of tenants potentially interested in your building. Tenants are now looking for services with their office buildings, it is no longer just a place to go to work. Orbital House boasts a café, private parking and the EV chargers provide another string to its bow and shows ESG is a foremost consideration when it comes to enhancing the tenants’ experience at the property. The chargers are private, and therefore can only be used by our tenants via an app, again with the benefit of the tenants in mind. Installing EV charging points will not be possible for every landlord or tenant, for various reasons, however there are measures everyone can adopt to improve the ESG of their property or business. Initiatives can be as extensive as replacing all the lighting within a building to LED or as simple as collecting food for a local food bank. For Orbital House, as with all the properties we manage on behalf of our clients, we will continue to look for projects to positively impact the environment, society and comply with governance. n
Andrew MacLachlan 07920 495 413 andrew.macLachlan@galbraithgroup.com
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Scottish Ports & Harbours
As a maritime nation, the ports and harbours of the UK have been a vital and vibrant part of our collective infrastructure for centuries.
Despite the significant changes over that time frame in how we live and service our trade and industry, the ports and harbours remain critical assets and generate opportunity for the wider areas that they serve.
Richard Higgins
In Scotland the ports handle over 70 million tonnes of cargo every year which is around 15% of the UK total. The ports directly employ 31,500 people which is 2.1% of total employment and generate £1.9billion gross value and £630m in taxes.
07717 581 741 richard.higgins@galbraithgroup.com
The ports themselves rely on landbased connectivity and resources not least road and rail networks, availability of a skilled workforce and land and buildings to accommodate onshore activities. Ports act as focal points for the supporting service industry across all sectors and it is no coincidence
that much economic development centres around them. Recognising the importance both regionally and nationally, the recent selection of Inverness and Cromarty Firth Green Freeport and Forth Green Freeport to receive up to £52m in start-funding and benefit from tax reliefs and other incentives will support and create opportunity and new jobs relating to traditional port services. Combined with the Oil and Gas Sector, the skills, supporting industries and infrastructure which have grown over the last 50 years are increasingly being deployed into the renewables sector. The transition from oil and gas to renewables is already well underway and will continue for decades to come. Construction has now been completed at Aberdeen South Harbour’s £420 million
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Construction has now been completed at Aberdeen South Harbour’s £420 million development of additional facilities in Nigg Bay...
The Devolution of Empty Property Relief From 1 April 2023 the Scottish Government devolved the power to determine empty property relief policies to Scotland’s 32 local authorities. With the change only having been announced a few months earlier in the December 2022 budget, there was limited time for most local authorities to make immediate changes. Now many local authorities have taken the opportunity to implement changes to their empty property relief policies with effect from 1 April 2024, including City of Edinburgh Council and Glasgow City Council. Previously, empty property relief was applied nationally as follows; • Vacant land and listed buildings received 100% rates relief (indefinitely). • Industrial properties 100% for 6 months.
development of additional facilities in Nigg Bay, to the south of the existing harbour. Further improvement and redevelopment works are also planned or underway at Peterhead, Stornoway, Montrose, Kishorn among others. The importance of ports and harbours not only to the recognised and established users including fishing, renewables, oil and gas and their supporting industries but increasingly tourism and leisure should not be overlooked. The waterfront at Dundee has been transformed with the V&A Museum and wider development and at Invergordon over 150,000 passengers are welcomed each year. The economic development opportunities are significant in the more “remote” ports (looking from the land perspective) and given the importance of marine trade and activity and future opportunities the importance as an economic driver cannot be overlooked. n
• Other business premises 50% for the first 3 months and 10% thereafter. Since powers have been devolved, local authorities have made significant changes, varying from council to council. The variations are stark even across Scotland’s three main city councils. In Edinburgh from the 1st of April 2024 all eligible vacant buildings (including those that are listed) will receive a maximum of 50% rates relief for 3 months.
April 2023 to be 50% relief for the first 3 months, reducing to 10% for the remainder of the period the property remains empty, across all eligible vacant buildings. Following the council’s budget meeting in March, Aberdeen’s empty property relief was reduced to zero, with effect from 1st April 2024. It is clear the policies are ever changing and will continue to vary across local authorities. Some local authorities have already announced their policies for the next few years in advance with some following Aberdeen City’s lead and planning to withdraw empty property relief altogether. Some argue that the removal of empty rates relief promotes investment into vacant properties so that they are brought back into economic use, while providing an additional funding source for stretched local authorities. However, many property owners and investors will be finding themselves with a hefty rates liability which may have been better spent on investing in the property to attract occupiers. With maintenance costs generally higher, and additional planning constraints, and lengthy approvals timelines, owners of listed buildings will likely be among those most impacted by the changes. Time will tell if the changes prompt owners to invest in vacant properties, or whether the financial burden will only exacerbate the problem and deter investment. n
In Glasgow from the 1st of April 2024, 100% relief is available for the first 3 months that any business property is unoccupied, and 10% relief will then be available for up to a further 12 months resulting in a total of 15 months relief being Kerry Harvey available. In Aberdeen, the change was initially made from 1
07584 336 085 kerry.harvey@galbraithgroup.com
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Scottish Investment Review
Cycles In our last Commercial Matters we provided a review of overall Scottish commercial property transactions. The 5 year average is historically £2.10bn, there was only a 21% dip during two years of Covid-19, which we regarded as quite impressive and resilient. 2022 saw a recovery back to the 5-year average, then a 25% decline in 2023 volume, but with no pandemic to help apportion blame!
During H1 of 2024 the data showed £780m of Scottish transactions, so if the trend prevails with traditionally inflated H2 activity, the year-end might be in the order of £1.60bn, still behind and lowering the 5-year average but with an definite upwards trajectory. Reflection: Property Market Cycles Taking me back to my university days, there was a very strong and wise emphasis on the concept of property market cycles. I will never forget the wavey cyclical graph but I have to admit, when operating in a bull market (for example the industrial sector) like we have experienced in the last five years, it becomes difficult to anticipate when the trend will change, I believe the term is “riding the wave”. It is easy to report once the data is available, or the ship has sailed! With the benefit of reflection, and current market exposure it is fascinating to comment and review a variety of sectors.
Offices We think offices are on the up, recovering from a low point in their cycle or a 10% to 30% decline in value. As a stalwart of the Scottish investment market, offices have always attracted a fantastic array of institutional and overseas investors. Development activity for higher value alternative use has seen a significant reduction in redundant stock, this is especially evident, and natural, it forms part of the classic property market cycle. Interestingly we therefore see performance opportunities in the grade B or secondary office market, due to lack of supply and lower rent stock, not all tenants want or need 100% green / prime offices. In Glasgow however, there are signs of an over-supplied CBD market and easily identifiable stock which is classified and Grade B or below and hasn’t found an alternative use. The opportunity here is for occupiers, there is a variety of size and quality available. At the same time, the best prime buildings continue to shine and
prove rental growth. We anticipate the pricing has bottomed out and a break out in performance will come with major occupier moves, perhaps a slower upwards-curve? Equally, the above landscape could accelerate the cyclical trend for outof-town offices, noting we have seen this cycle multiple times before, when core CBD market rents accelerate, occupiers often consider out of town options, which in Scotland can easily be less than half of the CBD occupational cost, watch this space! Retail At the time of writing there are 4 prime high street retail investment assets available to buy on Buchanan Street in Glasgow, and in summary, we like them all and generally like the pricing at between 6.00% and 7.00%. In terms of cycles we aren’t sure we see a rationale for retail space in Scotland to get back to sub 5.00% but this is would be a big ask considering global e-commerce and consumer trends. There is also high street retail activity in Edinburgh albeit at a greater
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Review
Buy your offices in Edinburgh, your retail in Glasgow and your warehouses somewhere in-between on the M8 corridor… and guess what, I am pretty sure that’s the trend many property fund managers followed 20 years ago. Will Sandwell
yield discount. George Street is slowly pricing rental growth and the St James Centre is pretty much fully occupied. We can only anticipate a re-bound for Princes Street but the mixed ownership remains a barrier to any collective strategy or approach. So Princes Street pricing suggests a current low point in its cycle, an absolute opportunity not to be missed. The retail warehouse market has been fascinating, perhaps the most active sector in terms of pricing cycles the last 10 years but consistently waving between 6.00% and 8.00% but also a massive trading volume in the last 4 years. UK institutions underwent a large sell off in 2020/2021 and yields dropped quickly to 6.00% in Scotland, then moved up to 7.00% and have stabilised. This trend has been acutely impacted by the weight money from a specific US REIT buyer who has entered the market with significant resource at a time where there is limited competition. We anticipate the next movement of the dial in this sector will be determined by rental growth prospects and capturing such performance, indeed there is unlikely to be enough available stock trading in Scotland to generate any new trends or define any cycles. Industrial Pricing peaked at yields in the region of 4.50% and such stock now would be 5.50% to 6.25% depending on specifics. The outwards shift was silent and slow, emerging through a significant reduction in transactions, which, considering the amount and specialist
vehicles targeting the sector, was unusual. Wider UK economics and cost of debt have probably played a bigger part in this trend. We predicited and are currently experiencing a conservative pricing improvement, mainly due to the occupational market fundamentals, a genuine lack of supply and continued rental growth which could apply to a significant amount of stock. This will drive a second wave of performance in the sector, good news for those holding stock with asset management plans ready to implement, but it doesn’t necessarily match a text cycle. Alternatives: BTR (Build To Rent residential) and PBSA (Purpose-Built Student Accommodation) remain extremely popular amongst developers and institutional investors. The investment
fundamentals are quite different to traditional commercial stock. The occupational demand is very evident. We are surprised by the continued BTR demand from institutional investors, however, on a global scale the UK sits behind many other countries. Turning to Scotland, there is an absolute investment pause due to government interference on rental growth. We struggle to see the full value inflation potential when management and maintenance are layered in and are concerned about this for the medium term. Overall yield trends are fairly flat, we anticipate a further 5 to 10 years is required to see a trend due to the property specifics but we do have memories of residential stock vs commercial stock once it becomes dated and the disconnect between a 15-year commercial lease to a corporate entity, with a solid repairing obligation, compared to a private individual on a 1-year tenancy with high refurbishment cost. Conclusion Beyond the trends highlighted, there are of course exciting opportunities in all property markets and sectors. For some investors this comes down to a counter cyclical strategy which carries greater risk (or wisdom), for others, it is most definitely core and core plus acquisitions, once the certainty is evident in a sector. At Galbraith, we believe our clients should consistently appraise their property investments (current and prospective) through all market cycles, allowing for perspective and a long-term hold, which in turn often helps to narrow new stock selection and shape future strategy. n
Will Sandwell 07801 266 373 will.sandwell@galbraithgroup.com
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Investment Deals
Edinburgh Audi, Sighthill, Edinburgh On behalf of an institutional investor, Galbraith acquired a prime motor trade dealership in a prominent Sighthill location. The 43,000 sq ft building is let to VW Group UK Ltd for a further 35 years with assured income for a term of 11 years. The lease caters for inflation linked rent reviews every 5 years. The deal was agreed at £9.10m reflecting a 7.50% net initial yield.
51 McNeil Drive, Eurocentral Galbraith sold 51 McNeil Drive on behalf of Capreon Real Estate for £6.745m reflecting a 6.20% net initial yield. The 52,459 sq ft prime logistics property underwent a refurbishment and was let to Biffa at £8.50 psf (£445,900 p.a.) for 21 years with assured income for an 11-year term. Galbraith building consultancy and commercial agency team provided refurbishment and letting advice. The property was bought by a UK institutional investor.
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Round up
100 & 120 Cambuslang Road, Glasgow Galbraith acquired two prime last mile distribution units on behalf of a long standing private client for £9.75m reflecting a blended yield of 5.90%. The units are located to the south of Glasgow city centre in Cambuslang and extend to 49,150 sq ft and 29,287 sq ft, leased to Royal Mail and Ferraris Piston Services.
Orbital House, East Kilbride Following the successful execution of a two-year asset management plan, the Galbraith investment team sold the multi-let office at Orbital House, East Kilbride. The building extends to 69,358 sq ft with 316 car parking spaces and is let to a variety of tenants. The annual rent was £686,500 p.a. The building was sold for £4.30m reflecting a 15.00% net initial yield.
Antonine Shopping Centre, Cumbernauld Galbraith acquired Antonine Shopping Centre on behalf of retail specialists Beltrace Investments. The property will be asset managed by Bellgate Estates. The 200,000 sq ft shopping centre forms the heart of Cumbernauld and is home to 40 high street brands and 1,000 car parking spaces. The property was acquired for £6.25m.
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Phase 1, Gartcosh Industrial Park, Glasgow On behalf of Gartcosh Estates, a development JV between Fusion Assets and J. Smart & Co. (Contractors) PLC, Galbraith sold the prime new build mid-box industrial park to an institutional investor for £6.875m, reflecting a 6.79% net initial yield. The park extends to 59,998 sq ft over 3 units and is let to 3 strong tenants providing a WAULT of 8.94 years. The passing rent was £497,617 p.a (average £8.30 psf).
Franklin Point, Argyle Street, Glasgow Galbraith acquired Franklin Point on behalf of Wesleyan Assurance Society for £8.00m reflecting a 7.11% net initial yield. The property is let to Sainsbury’s on the ground floor providing a CBD convenience store and the upper floors are let to International Student Operator Kaplan, providing 75 purpose built en-suite rooms.
Unit 3, Belgrave Logistics, Bellshill On behalf of a corporate client, Galbraith acquired 29,995 sq ft of prime new build industrial accommodation at Belgrave Logistics Park in Bellshill. A 10 year lease was secured at a rent of £9.50 per sq ft.
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Round up Gordon Lamb House On behalf a Rougemont Limited, Galbraith acquired a modern multi-let office building which is located in the heart of Edinburgh’s historic Old Town. The building is set across ground and four upper floors extending to circa 8,960 sq ft. The office is multi-let to 5 tenants at a passing rent of £210,962 per annum. The investment was acquired for a price of £2.33m, which reflects a net initial yield of 8.52%.
Strathclyde Street, Glasgow On behalf of a private investor, Galbraith acquired multi-let industrial estate within Glasgow. The estate extends to approximately 52,000 sq ft and comprises 21 units which range in size from 1,500 – 7,000 sq ft. The passing rent of £204,000 p.a. equates to an average of £3.93 per sq ft. The investment was acquired for a price of £3.15m, which reflects a net initial yield of 6.09% and a capital rate of £60 per sq ft.
11A Dublin Street, Edinburgh
2 Ellismuir Way, Tannochside Park, Uddingston
On behalf of a private investor, Galbraith sold 11A Dublin Street for £445,000, reflecting a 5.80% net initial yield. The 1,147 sq ft self-contained office within a period property was let to professional services business for £26,700 p.a. and provided 3.5 years of assured income.
Galbraith marketed and sold 2 Ellismuir Way to a UK institutional fund for £5.35m, reflecting a 6.87% net initial yield. The property is leased to OLR Holdings until 2034 and provides 7 years assured income with a RPI linked rent review in year 5. The new build 42,345 sq ft high specification distribution unit was let at £9.26 psf.
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Industrial rental market in numbers
Edinburgh Office Market Get more bang for your buck
Edinburgh £8.20 PSF Average Rent
3.0% Vacancy Rent
173,000 sq ft Under Construction
Rental Growth 6.0% over past 12 months 19.0% over past 3 years £15.00 PSF Prime new build smaller scheme quoting rents
Market asking Rent psf £8.50 £8.00 £7.50
The shift in working habits, resulting in reduced demand for office space has been well publicised. The impact of this change has however been more apparent in some markets than others.
£7.00
£6.50 2020
2022
2023
2024 (YTD)
Glasgow £7.60 PSF Average Rent
Prime Edinburgh City Centre office rents have reached an all-time high of £45 per square foot due to both lack of supply and demand for best-in-class space. The high demand is driven by occupiers seeking outstanding ESG credentials and excellent transport links, as they aim to attract workers back into the office.
3.0% Vacancy Rent
Future office development within the city centre is limited due to high build costs and planning restrictions within the UNESCO World Heritage Site which covers much of the city centre. The lack of construction and the continued trend of older office stock being converted to competing uses such as student and residential, is likely to put further upward pressure on city centre rents. Whilst locations outside of the city centre have seen reduced demand in recent years, the increase in city centre rents highlights the value that can be gained by considering alternative locations. Rents drop markedly outwith the prime city centre locations, with good quality offices within 10 minutes’ walk of the city’s main train stations available for circa £20 psf. The tram line extension offers easy access to areas north of the city centre such as Leith, which continues to offer even better value. n
2021
Rental Growth 8.5% over past 12 months 25.8% over past 3 years
Market asking Rent psf £8.00 £7.50 £7.00 £6.50
640,000 Sq ft Under Construction
£6.00 £5.50 2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 (YTD)
Office rental market in numbers Edinburgh £45.00 PSF Prime Rent
£29.24 PSF ‘Golden Rectangle’ average asking rent
8.7% Vacancy Rent
City Centre Take-up 700,000 600,000
07917 424 363 david.stevenson@galbraithgroup.com
500,000 Sq. ft.
David Stevenson
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
2020
2021
2022 Year
2023 Q1
Q2
2024 (YTD) Q3 Q4
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The challenges faced by the Edinburgh office market have been well reported. While occupier demand continues with the drive for prime, a severe lack of good quality accommodation continues to constrain the market, which is ultimately driving rental growth across high quality, city centre accommodation.
Edinburgh Office Market Challenges imposed on future development Office occupancy levels have continued to recover following the work from home practices adopted during the Covid-19 pandemic, and there is no doubt that these practices have permanently altered the way businesses occupy space, with hybrid work models becoming more common. However, these changes have led to businesses reconsidering their occupancy requirements. This in turn has created a shift to seeking ‘Best in Class’ accommodation, which is often driven by Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) credentials as employers seek to attract and retain the best staff, increase employee wellbeing and productivity, while also meeting corporate requirements.
In the first half of 2024, office space takeup in the city centre reached 163,000 sq ft, with Q2 alone contributing 90,000 sq ft, which is a notable 25% improvement over the previous quarter. The Prime and Grade A office market is particularly active, with approximately 50,000 sq ft taken up in Q2, with the largest deal being 12,706 sq ft Quay 2 to Azets Holdings. The scarcity of prime office space is expected to drive further rental growth, with prime rents now achieving £45.00 per sq ft, with projections suggesting they may reach £47.50 by the end of 2024 and £50– £52 per sq ft in the coming years.
speculative developments under construction equating to approximately 110,000 sq ft with a high proportion of these schemes now pre-let, and with delivery of one building being almost 12 months behind schedule. While other new build schemes have been identified, these pipeline properties are all at varying stages. There is increasing pressure to develop office buildings that meet stringent ESG standards, which are designed to be net-zero carbon, and achieve high BREEAM ratings, demonstrating the market’s shift towards sustainable buildings.
With the supply and demand imbalance now at critical levels, there are only three
NEW BUILD. PLANNING SECURED
NEW BUILD. PLANNING SECURED
Haymarket Yards 180,000 sq.ft
The Network 82,000 sq.ft
Rosebery House 158,000 sq.ft
Calton Square 200,000 sq.ft
However, these developments are often more expensive and time-consuming, posing a challenge for developers in balancing expenditure with environmental goals. While there is pent up demand for new build, speculative development stakeholders are faced with a myriad of issues which are delaying, and in some cases, deterring their willingness to proceed with such schemes. Investors are increasingly
India Quay, Exchange Fountainbridge Place 1 130,000 120,000 sq.ft sq.ft
cautious due to economic uncertainty, fluctuating interest rates, and the rising cost of capital which when combined with the rising costs of construction and refurbishment, questions are often raised over the viability of these speculative schemes. As these cost pressures continue and market availability is increasingly constrained, it is hoped that rising rents will support development appraisals, which in time, will lead to more speculative development.
The Cube 66,000 sq.ft
REDEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED
NEW BUILD MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT. DUE 2026
24 St Andrew Square 48,047 sq.ft
REDEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED
NEW BUILD MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT. DUE 2026
Semple Street 33,812 sq.ft
PLANNING SUBMITTED. AWAITING DECISION FROM COUNCIL
PC DUE Q1 2025
New Clarendon 34,000 sq.ft
NEW BUILD. PLANNING SECURED
PC DUE Q4 2024
REDEVELOPMENTS YET TO COMMENCE
COMPLETION DUE Q4 2024
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Capital House 55,000 sq.ft
These challenges collectively make Edinburgh's office development market highly competitive but constrained, with a need for innovative solutions to meet demand while addressing sustainability and cost pressures. n
Lucy Yates 07824 848 097 lucy.yates@galbraithgroup.com
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Right Fit
Agency & Other Deals
Commercial property investment has generally focussed on the traditional asset classes of industrial, retail or office; however, recently we have experienced a growth in interest for operational renewable energy assets. The growth in renewable energy developments over the last decade or so is well known and historically transactions of these assets has tended to be amongst specialist funds and investors; however, smaller lot sizes are now attracting interest from a more diverse range of potential purchasers. The drive towards net zero is focussing some businesses to look at investing in renewable electricity generation to offset usage in their core operation whilst others are simply looking to spread their investment portfolio into assets which better suit their aspirations to improve social governance. The principal focus of this market sector tends to be assets which benefit from government support in terms of eligibility for the Feed in Tariff scheme. In 2010 the government introduced the Feed in Tariff to incentivise development of renewable generation across all sectors i.e. solar PV, wind and hydro. Accredited developments benefit from an index linked payment for every kilowatt of renewable energy generated for a twenty-year period in addition to revenues for electricity exported into the grid network. The scheme closed in 2019; however, the scheme was very successful, particularly in encouraging the development of individual wind and hydro projects and whilst these are not traded in large volume, any assets which do come to the market encounter significant interest. n
9 Haymarket Square, Edinburgh On behalf of Saffery LLP, Galbraith have acquired c 6,000 sq ft at 9 Haymarket Square, Edinburgh’s fully let flagship new office development. The building is designed to high environmental and energy efficient specification, being rated “excellent“ by BREEAM and with an EPC A rating. The building has roof-mounted solar panels, superb end of journey facilities, intelligent lighting and a first class occupier line up. Saffery have taken a 10 year lease and move in to their offices in November.
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Round up
Junction 2 Industrial Estate, Claylands Road, Newbridge, Edinburgh Acting on behalf of the landlord, LaSalle Investment Management, Galbraith negotiated a lease extension and variation over a prime location 90,000 sq ft distribution unit. The parties agreed a 15-year lease extension with inflationlinked rent review structure, providing both certainty for the tenant and long secure income for the institutional investor landlord.
Bankhead Steading Galbraith have advised on several lettings at Bankhead Steading over the last 12 months. The mixed use converted farm steading has attracted a range of tenants. Lettings have been agreed with a gym, storage company and beauticians' office.
Co-op, North Berwick, High Street Galbraith advised on the sale of 117 High Street, North Berwick. The property was let to The Co-operative Group who purchased the property.
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8 Rutland Square, Edinburgh Acting on behalf of the landlord, Galbraith aided in the letting of 8 Rutland Square. Calton Wealth Management agreed to let the ground to third floors for a period of ten years with a break option at year five. Gallasa Ltd committed to a 5-year lease with a break option after three years for the lower ground and basement floors.
Eastfield Industrial Estate, Glenrothes
106 George Street, Edinburgh
Bermuda House, Castle Business Park, Stirling
On behalf of Mileway, Galbraith has assisted in the recent letting of two units at Eastfield Industrial Estate. Comprising 1,069 sq ft and 5,991 sq ft the refurbished units were let for three and five years respectively.
On behalf of a private client Galbraith advised on the sale of 106 George Street, Edinburgh, a prime retail unit situated in the heart of the City Centre. The property was sold with vacant possession for £2,000,000.
Acting on behalf of the landlord, Galbraith aided in the heritable disposal of Bermuda House. The 20,496 sq ft property was sold for £1,750,000 which equates to £85 psf.
3-5 Melville Street Ardmore House, George Street, Edinburgh Acting on behalf of the landlord, Galbraith successfully let the 3rd floor of Ardmore House, a 2,700 sq ft office suite situated in Edinburgh City Centre. 2i Limited committed to a five-year term.
Westhill Industrial Estate, Aberdeen Galbraith assisted with the letting of units 8,9 and 10 Westfield Industrial Estate, Aberdeen. Units 8&9 extend to 5,928 sq ft with the tenant committing to a five-year lease. Unit 10 extends to 5,043 sq ft with the tenant committing to a two-year lease. These lettings followed extensive asset management initiatives and significant landlord investment.
On behalf of an overseas investor, Galbraith were delighted to assist with the letting of three vacant floors which are now occupied by The Harris Partnership, Quartermile Ventures Limited and Playerdata Limited. The agency team provided marketing advice following the vacation of the previous occupier and guided all transactions through to completion. The property management team ensured the building was suitable for multi-tenanted occupation while building consultancy provided contract administration for the external re-decoration works to the building ensuring it presented well to the market. This holistic service resulted in a successful outcome for the client.
220 Easter Road, Edinburgh Acting on behalf of the landlord, Galbraith negotiated the letting of a prominent corner retail unit extending to 825 sq ft over ground and basement levels. Interval Running have agreed to a term of ten years with a break option after year 5.
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Round up
17 Dublin Street, Edinburgh Following a wide marketing campaign, Galbraith successfully sold 17 Dublin Street. A self-contained ground and first floor Edinburgh townhouse extending to circa 2,475 sq ft (GIA) along with 4 car parking spaces. The deal was agreed at £925,000.
Crichton House, Crichton Close, Edinburgh On behalf of the landlord, Galbraith advised on the sale of Crichton House, Edinburgh; a fully consented serviced apartment development opportunity. Located in the heart of Edinburgh’s Old Town, the former brew house was converted to offices around 25 years ago. Having acted for the vendor in the acquisition of the property, as well as managing the 9,500 sq ft multilet building for several years, we were delighted to provide strategic advice. Given changing market conditions including heightened demand for serviced apartments in the city centre, we explored alternative use options. Galbraith established and coordinated a design team, leading to both planning consent and building warrant approval being granted for conversion of the property into 18 serviced apartments.
Cairncross House, Union Street, Edinburgh Acting for the landlord and following a successful marketing campaign, Galbraith negotiated the letting of 2,356 sq ft office space at Cairncross House. Wyoming Interactive committed to a term of five years with a tenant break option at the end of year three.
The deal was agreed at £2.332 million exclusive.
Tollcross Industrial Estate, Causewayside Crescent, Glasgow Acting on behalf of a private landlord, Galbraith has successfully let a number of units at Tollcross Industrial Estate, Glasgow. This multi-let estate is now fully let.
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Expertise Galbraith operates from 13 offices across Scotland and Northern England, bringing our clients a wealth of experience in: • Building consultancy • Commercial forestry & woodland management • Commercial property sales & management • Estate, farm & forestry sales & acquisitions • Estates, farming & land management • Natural capital & carbon • Property lettings • Renewables and utilities • Residential estate agency