Libertarian Leader: Fall 2018 Issue #2 by C Michael Pickens

FALL 2018 | ISSUE NO. 2

THE LIBERTARIAN

LEADER MAGAZINE

LIBERTARIAN 7 YEAR PLAN FOR SUCCESS Larry Sharpe

CAMPAIGN BY THE NUMBERS Cindy Dyson

PREPARING TO LAUNCH A CAMPAIGN Paul Addis

MY LIBERTARIAN EXPERIENCE Jason Fonville

LEADERSHIP FOR LIBERTARIANS BY TIM MOEN

The Libertarian Party exists to elect people who believe in liberty to public office and to pass legislation reducing the size and scope of intrusive government. We exist to move policy in a Libertarian direction. We exist to build the infrastructure to win within our local communities. We are the recruitment/political arm of the Liberty Movement. In other words, we exist to protect innocent people from victimless crime laws, abusive policy, and government extortion or theft. The bottom line is that we are currently being abused by our own government. Almost anyone you talk with has been or knows someone who has been abused by some law, regulation, or extortion scheme. We exist to protect innocent people, but we have failed miserably. We are not yet strong enough. We are not yet visible enough. We must focus resources directly to marketing and advertising campaigns. To accomplish our purpose of moving policy in a Libertarian direction, we must continue to elect Libertarians to public office, but at a much faster rate. We must acquire political power. To go on the offensive means to empower other Libertarian candidates and activists to strive to reach their potential. I propose we focus heavily on recruiting, training, and supporting campaigns/candidates. If a candidate loses, he or she should immediately focus on building up their local organization in preparation for another run for office or to support a better candidate in their run. There have been too many candidates run for office once, lose, then quit being active. This is not the smart way to grow. Gaining enough experience, visibility, and credibility to win often takes more than one election to succeed. This is why I only invest my time and energy on candidates and activists who understand and are committed to a long-term vision with short-term goals and to building an organization that can stand up to authoritarianism. I am very grateful for all of the Libertarians around the country who understand this and are actively playing a role in realizing our purpose. Grow large enough to scale back governmental and corporate abuse. #RiseoftheLibertarians

C. Michael Pickens

"This program is well worth it for any candidate or anyone working on a campaign. Invaluable information on how to build a campaign team and raise money. If you're serious about winning, you owe it to yourself and to our future to check out the LLA. Using the methods I learned from this program I have already raised $50,000 for my State House campaign and we still have more than 2 months before the primary." Matt Dubin (L) 2018 Candidate for Washington's 36th Legislative District. www.ThereIsNoThem.US

"I've been involved in the Libertarian Party since 2004 and Libertarian Leadership is doing the leadership training that has never been done before. By following their suggestions, the Libertarian Party of Iowa was able to double the amount of candidates we were running in just 2 weeks! If you are only going to financially support one libertarian organization, Libertarian Leadership is the one to support." -Jake Porter (L) 2018 Candidate for Iowa Governor 2010 and 2014 Candidate for SOS www.JakePorter.org

FALL 2018 Pg 5-12 Tim Moen: Leadership for Libertarians "We all know Leaders who aren’t leaders, and we also know leaders who have no official title or organizational authority. It is the small “l” leaders that make organizations effective, who inspire action, and who change the world. Today I want to discuss how we can up our leadership game and become more effective leaders, and how this relates to creating the kind of change we want to see in the world around us as libertarians who are also Libertarians."

Pg 13-15 Cindy Dyson: Campaign by the Numbers "I needed a strategy specific to my race, my abilities, and my would-be voters. In desperation, I turned to numbers. I turned to the treasury of hard data available through decades of election results, conveniently online at the Montana Secretary of State’s website. Here I would find my strategy, take control of my campaign, and take my best shot at winning."

Pg 16-17 Jason Fonville: I Ran for Office and I Liked It "2016-18 have been the greatest years of my short, 45-year life. Why? I was able to break away from being a supporter to being a leader who supports. My only personal change was running toward discomfort through taking massive action steps toward my goals. I’m living life free."

Pg 18-19 Larry Sharpe: The Libertarian 7 Year Plan for Success "So, some of us are saying “Why bother with the Libertarian Party? We lost, we lost, we lost in 2016. We've lost for decades.” I get that, but what we have to understand is, 2016 was a turning point. We are now beginning to win. All we need right now is to take all that motivation, everything we have and put it into the right plan. And guess what? We've been working on that plan."

Pg 20-21 Paul Addis: Preparing to Launch a Campaign "As far back as the 1st century, we have writings that provide great advice when starting any type of project. Even Jesus himself said, “For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it - lest, after he has laid the foundation, and is not able to finish, all who see it begin to mock him, saying, ‘This man began to build and was not able to finish’?” So, my first bit of advice is to ‘count the cost’ and plan accordingly. Similarly, the adage to ‘plan the work and work the plan’ begins with planning the work.at motivation, everything we have and put it into the right plan. And guess what? We've been working on that plan."

Do you have information that other Libertarians need to hear about? Submit your article or idea to MichaelPickens@LibertarianLeadership.org

Become a Weapon of Mass Persuasion for Liberty WeaponsOfMassPersuasion.com

WE DO LIBERTY MINDED STORIES. PERIOD. LIBERTYLINKMEDIA.COM

www.BuyThrusT.com

Leadership for Libertarians

Tim Moen: Leader, Libertarian Party of Canada “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw As Leader of the Libertarian Party of Canada, it is my job to be the public face of the party and to assume the role of Prime Minister if our party forms government. My formal title of Leader is kind of flashy, and it’s an honor to hold this position, but it isn’t nearly as important as the role I share with everyone reading this, which is leadership. We all know Leaders who aren’t leaders, and we also know leaders who have no official title or organizational authority. It is the small “l” leaders that make organizations effective, who inspire action, and who change the world. Today I want to discuss how we can up our leadership game and become more effective leaders, and how this relates to creating the kind of change we want to see in the world around us as libertarians who are also Libertarians.

Purpose-Driven Life

“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why.” – Mark Twain

I think that far to many people view the pursuit of happiness as chasing a sustained feeling of joy, or immediate gratification, or finding a safe space devoid of any challenge. As a firefighter/paramedic I’ve spent over two decades picking up people pursuing that type of happiness and can tell you it doesn’t do a body or soul any good. Those people have made themselves slaves in almost every sense of the word. Those people aren’t likely reading this article, but those are the people who need liberating the most. In many ways, that corrupt pursuit of happiness is what has led to big government. I define happiness as the conscious awareness that I am living my life purpose. Purpose is the motivating spark that causes us to act consciously in the world and to create change (aka leadership). A purpose driven life can have periods of joy, pleasure, and love but also periods of extreme hardship, sadness, frustration, hatred, and anger. A purpose driven life is a life fully lived committed to something bigger than one’s self.

I assume that people reading this share a life purpose similar to mine. You want to see a world with more liberty, and you are determined to do something about it. I have disliked big government and been a bit of a liberty activist for over a decade now; however, my heart and mind had yet to fully realize the advancement of liberty as a life purpose. Evidence that I hadn’t made a commitment to advancing liberty was everywhere. I would spend inordinate amounts of time trolling statists online, and engaging in debates where I made other people look foolish. This type of activity gave me hits of all sorts of immediate gratification but it wasn’t serving any true purpose. This all changed for me when, as a firefighter, I found myself lost and alone, tangled in debris, in the pitch black of the basement of a burning house, with an unbearable heat rising around me. I knew that I was going to die within minutes, and at that moment, the flood of regrets about all the things I had left undone and unsaid motivated me to find a way out and survive. I emerged from that fire driven by purpose; it changed my life, and I am so grateful. It’s kind of embarrassing that it took coming so close to death in order to get serious about living a life of purpose, but I think the clarity that comes with almost losing one’s life helps reveal what purpose would have been lost with it. I often imagine my funeral. Who will attend? What will they say? What will my life have meant to my children, my wife, the world? I encourage you to discover your life purpose, to remind yourself regularly what your purpose on the Earth is, and to make all your goals and actions congruent with that purpose. Purpose turns trolls into lions.

All Systems Are Self-Organizing

“…we must now recognize that we, our organizations, as indeed the entire cosmos – are all self-organizing systems. Not just a little bit, not just in some special part, but from beginning to end, top to bottom. It is all self-organization.” - Harrison Owen

It’s not enough to just have purpose. We have to have an accurate mental model of reality or we are condemned to impotence. This can be difficult in a world where our view of reality is warped by a matrix of language which turns armed extortion into a virtue called “taxation”. Being an effective leader requires a clear understanding of how a system is held together. We can’t be effective change agents if we are working on a straw man we’ve built in our heads. One of the straw men I had built suddenly dissolved while I was working on my graduate degree. My major project involved studying how leadership manifested in self-organizing systems – specifically, teams of firefighters -- and I was having a difficult time differentiating a system that could be described as top-down versus a system that could be described as self-organizing. I noticed that teams with a formal Leader who was autocratic tended to be more chaotic; fires would take longer to put out, there was less organization between team members, and dangerous unintended conditions tended to emerge more often. However, this was not always the case; sometimes an informal leader stepped up and served the needs of the team, and the team came together and got the job done effectively, despite the Leader being an autocrat.

Cont. Leadership for Libertarians: Tim Moen

The difference between these two teams had less to do with the Leader and more to do with the constituent team members. On one team, the constituent members viewed the Leader as an ultimate authority to be feared; on the other team, the constituent members viewed the same type of autocrat as a schmuck to be ignored. Put another way, two teams could have the exact same Leader engaging in the exact same behavior and they could show up as completely different systems. The primary determination of how a team showed up had more to do with the character and belief system of the individuals on each team than it did with the Leader. America was formed when libertarians picked up arms and drove off the Red Coats. They had liberty inscribed across their hearts and minds and would not tolerate an autocrat. Kim Jong Un wouldn’t have survived 5 minutes in 1776 America, yet he is worshipped as a deity in modern day North Korea. If North Korea and 1776 America swapped citizens but left the same government and bureaucracy in place, it is my contention that you would see dramatic changes in those institutions in short order. Viewing the world and political systems as self-organizing helps explain why changing Leaders does very little to change systems. Bush, Obama, and Trump are as much slaves to the system as the rest of us, and while the rhetoric may be different, the system will continue on its trajectory. Our system is comprised of institutions within institutions, bureaucracies within bureaucracies, all held aloft by the aggregate of beliefs (delusional and otherwise) held in the brains of the system’s individual constituents. Trump can claim resounding success if he simply continues with Obama’s policies and brags about the mass deportations already occurring, rebrands the bombing of the Middle East as “crushing ISIS”, calls Obamacare something else, and markets already existing protectionist policies as his. Nothing changes but the rhetoric, because that is all the American people really demand. This is important because our perspective about how systems work determines how we go about trying to create system change. If you view government as a top-down system of control rather than an emergent property of culture (the aggregate belief system and narrative of a population of individuals) then you’re liable to do all the wrong things in trying to create the change you want to see. We see examples of how this leads to a self-fulfilling prophecy all the time. If you see racists everywhere, pretty soon racists emerge, because you engage in the very type of activity that nurtures racism. The War on Terror, the War on Drugs, and the War on Poverty have all created self-fulfilling prophecies.

If you believe, as I do, that we will never see a significant change in government until we see a significant change in culture, then the previous methods are not only impotent, they are probably counterproductive. I would rather see a libertarian system that resists even a socialist Leader than a libertarian Leader of a socialist system that they are subservient to. In this more accurate view of our system, the way we go about being leaders changes dramatically. In this view, doing the conventional things necessary to become a Leader can actually make us less effective leaders. I often worry that our fixation on government as the root of all evil actually creates more of that which we hate in another self-fulfilling prophecy. What if we stopped treating government as the primary problem, and started looking at it as a symptom of a deeper issue? We understand that heroin can ruin lives, but we also know that to eliminate the problems caused by heroin, we have to look at the root cause of addiction; what need does that heroin serve in the addict? From the lens of self-organization, we can see clearly that what we must do is entirely unconventional; we have to challenge belief systems, tell people uncomfortable truths, peddle in cognitive dissonance, help people confront their anxiety in a constructive manner, teach people that they are powerful beyond measure, develop our character, and live lives of integrity so that our words carry the power of lived authenticity. Put another way: we have to engage in legitimate leadership. This may seem disheartening at first. If only it were as simple as getting the right person elected. This is why the topdown perspective is so tempting; it offers the illusion of immediate gratification like a hit of heroin. The good news is that change in a self-organizing system can start anywhere and go everywhere. A 2011 study showed that the tipping point for a societal paradigm shift is at most 10%. When 10% (at most) of a population adopts an “unshakeable belief” then the majority of the population adopts that belief. Ideas like the abolition of slavery, women’s suffrage, the enlightenment, inalienable rights; each started with one person and then spread everywhere and changed the world. This is good news in that it means that an organization like the Libertarian Party can be a tremendous catalyst for liberty even if it doesn’t win an election, and also means that the Libertarian Party can be a tremendous catalyst for liberty if it DOES win an election, provided it keeps its focus on shifting culture.

Legitimate Leadership

“People aren’t resisting change, they’re being attracted to a core of self-esteem, dignity, and a sense of personal power.” – Jeffery Goldstein

It is important to understand that leadership is not compulsion, it is an attraction. All life-affirming systems operate and grow through attractive forces. If we understand this, it can help us be more effective as change agents. Gentlemen, it doesn’t help us in the dating world to imagine that a lady we are trying to court is resisting our advances. It is far more helpful to understand what is really going on when we are failing in our courtship efforts; namely, she just isn’t attracted to you. If you view someone as “resistant” your job is to break through the wall, to overcome with force. If you view someone as “not attracted” you suddenly start looking at yourself and wonder how you can make yourself more attractive. It may be something as simple as picking the lettuce out of your teeth. If you take this perspective a step further and view someone as “attracted to” a core of personal power, self-esteem, purpose, and dignity, you start to unlock huge potential for attraction. Now your focus shifts to serving the needs of others by strengthening their core. Now when a teammate doesn’t like your idea, you start to figure out what they are attracted to and how your idea can strengthen their core of personal power. If your idea is good, it will ultimately serve their needs; once you understand what drives them, you can easily help them connect the dots and they will embrace your idea. We can also apply this perspective when we are communicating our philosophy with others. How does libertarianism serve the needs of someone who is motivated by empathy for marginalized people? How does it strengthen the core of a person who is most concerned about law and order?

Cont. Leadership for Libertarians: Tim Moen

Legitimate leaders have to do more than just attract willing followers though. With enough charisma and charm, you can get people to drink poisoned Kool-Aid, but that isn’t what I would call legitimate leadership. Systems built around a cult of personality, of amassing followers to feed one’s delusions and desire to be loved, are extremely fragile. The bigger they get, the harder they fall. Real leaders make a commitment to a cause or goal which is bigger than themselves and which serves the needs of others.

A really good leader eliminates the need for their leadership by teaching other people not only how to master themselves, but also how to become capable of leading. This allows a system to be able to grow stronger in the face of stress and chaos, by freeing its leaders to continue to learn and grow.

“Be careful of your thoughts, for your thoughts become your words. Be careful of your words, for your words become your actions. Be careful of your actions, for your actions become your habits. Be careful of your habits, for your habits become your character. Be careful of your character, for your character becomes your destiny.” - Chinese proverb, author unknown

Developing Character Leaders want to know how to create the change they want to see in the world. Once you accept that systems selforganize based on the actions and, ultimately, the belief systems of the individual constituents of that system; when you understand that life-affirming growth occurs in a system when individuals liberate themselves and in doing so liberate each other, the path forward becomes clear. The way to create the kind of change you want to see in the world is to BE THAT CHANGE. Most people only recognize that idea as a cliché, because actually doing it is as difficult for leadership as it is necessary. Did you think living a purpose-driven life was going to be easy?

One of the ways to develop character is through something I’ve come to call the antifragile mindset based on the Nassim Taleb book “Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder”. I’ve thought quite a bit lately about how best to articulate this. I have two daughters who are following my career path and are in school right now to become paramedics. One of them came home and told me about a friend of hers, a young man in his early 20’s, who broke down and was at wit's end because of the calls he is being exposed to. One call, in particular, involved three 13-yearold boys in a car wreck where one was DOA, another had his face ripped off and was gurgling through his trachea, and the third had mangled legs. I realized that my daughters are soon going to be faced with extremely stressful situations as well and that I needed to help prepare them. Emergency service workers today are at far greater risk for developing PTSD and mental health issues than when I entered the field 20 years ago, despite having more resources, tools, and support. My own experience with PTSD gives me a clue as to why this is the case. When I started my career in Emergency Services, we were just starting to be told a story about how in stressful calls when lives were lost, Critical Incident Stress could take us down. I had three bad calls within the first couple of months of work which involved children dying in front of me. The constellation of symptoms I was experiencing is now called PTSD: flashbacks, insomnia, withdrawal from family, using alcohol to numb myself, anxiety about going to work, and feeling a sense of helplessness in my life. One counseling session -- in fact, one question in that counseling session -- cured my symptoms immediately, made me immune from experiencing those symptoms again, and in fact set me up to experience post-traumatic stress growth from similar calls in the future. The question my therapist asked me interrupted my rant of self-pity about how useless I was. He asked, “Are you telling me that you provided no value to anybody on those calls?” Considering that question carefully, I realized that I was providing tremendous value on those calls. I wasn’t able to reverse catastrophic aneurysms or injuries, and those kids were going to die no matter what I did, but I had the ability to serve the needs of their parents, explain what was going on, give them the peace of mind of knowing that everything possible was done, bring order to a chaotic scene, etc. I learned that by focusing on the things I could control, I became a better care provider and a better person. It wasn’t external trauma that was the source of my suffering, it was my own thoughts, the way I viewed my experiences. Taleb points out that systems can either be fragile (break from disorder), robust (withstand disorder), or antifragile (gain from disorder). The story we are sold in our profession is the same as the one sold to society at large. Namely, that we are powerless in the face of overwhelming forces like patriarchy, racism, terrorism, critical incident stress, or mental disorders. That the best we can be is robust individuals able to take a hit and return to baseline. One of the ways to develop character is through something I’ve come to call the antifragile mindset based on the story that nobody is telling us that we are antifragile individuals, that living life outside our comfort zone makes us better versions of ourselves, and that we are in control of our own minds and, therefore, our own freedom and our own happiness. I believe that my daughters will be entering an extremely stressful career, but this stress is going to make them better human beings because I’m teaching them an antifragile mindset. I feel incredible sympathy for my daughter’s friend who is suffering needlessly because industry Leaders have failed him by promoting a fragile mindset, and he doesn’t have a leader who can help him turn on an antifragile mindset.

Cont. Leadership for Libertarians: Tim Moen

Consider how the fragile mindset is spread through our culture on both sides of the political spectrum and creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. The political left are people who are focused on traditional maternal attributes; encouraging sharing of resources, nurturing the marginalized, caretaking the environment, etc. The political right are people who are focused on traditional paternal attributes; threat vigilance, boundary enforcement, gathering resources, etc. In an antifragile system, moms and dads work together as a team and value what each other bring to the table. They see each other as complementary in their roles. A firm but permeable boundary is established, threats kept out, and lifegiving resources brought in. Within this membrane, life is nurtured and caretaking occurs. In a fragile system, moms complain about the patriarchy and dads complain about attacks on masculinity, and the same conflict can be found in all examples of this system. It can be seen in anything from broken families going through divorce, to third wave feminists vs men’s rights activists on university campuses, to Democrats and Republicans accusing each other of literally being Satan. Boundaries of order break down and become brittle, no longer bringing in life-giving resources or protecting the system from threats. Toxicity replaces nurturing, and encouragement gives way to shrill neuropathy. With a fragile mindset, we can expect to see the worst fears of both sides come true as self-fulfilling prophecies accelerate; more racism, more terrorism, a patriarchy growing alongside matriarchy, growing conflict between multiple cultures, more pearl-clutching all around as fear drives us towards civil strife. Imagine a world full of antifragile individuals, where people viscerally recoil from purveyors of paternalism, dependency, and safe spaces. Imagine a world where people projecting their worst fears through apoplectic cries for a state to soothe their anxieties are recognized as purveyors of mental illness. A world with this type of culture would view government the way a healthy person views opiates, something to be avoided except in rare emergencies. It is important that libertarians develop their character lest they fall into the fragility trap and contribute to a decline of Western Civilization. What does a fragile mindset look like in a libertarian? I would submit that its fruits are recognizable when a libertarian is more concerned with cutting someone down than with persuading them or connecting to an audience. Like a neocon bombing the Middle East, you can see these keyboard warriors fighting the state by destroying statists in chat rooms with little thought to the blowback and radicalization they nurture. It manifests when a person resigns themselves to the idea that the only way to flourish is if the state gets out of their life. It’s there when a libertarian thinks that their life can only get better and civilization can only be saved if their guy gets elected, that otherwise, their destiny is firmly in the hands of idiots who don’t understand their own idiocy. This way of thinking engenders helplessness, anxiety, frustration, anger, and impotence. The antifragile libertarian looks at the state as a challenge, an opportunity for personal growth, they say, “how can I flourish and embody freedom despite the state, how can I use this challenge to grow into a better version of myself?” In liberating yourself you become a light that liberates others, and the state withers away becoming far less relevant. As your character grows your words carry more impact, your connections with others grow deeper, and your ability to be a change agent grows exponentially. Imagine what a team of antifragile libertarians can do.

Team Loyalty Gary Johnson had the toughest job in politics the 2016 election. Not only did he have Republicans and Democrats jumping on every gaffe and blaming him for taking votes, but he also had libertarians doing the very same thing and blaming him for losing votes. Sure, the other candidates were hammered when they made gaffes, but they had something Gary didn’t seem to have: rabidly loyal team members who would go to war for them.

I’ve noticed that libertarians are often people who have been on the outside of groups growing up. You’re unlikely to find a prom king or queen who has grown into a libertarian; popular kids have too much at stake to disabuse themselves of groupthink. Whether libertarians are outsiders because we don’t have an affinity for being in groups or because we have been ostracized by groups, it gives us the ability to notice the contradictions and irrationality that these groups have, and gives us the ability to look at systems more objectively. Unfortunately, this strength also makes loyalty to groups a foreign concept, which can make organizational work difficult. This casual observation was recently backed up by a comprehensive study on libertarian psychology conducted by social psychologist Jonathan Haidt and colleagues. The study found that, compared to both liberals and conservatives, libertarians had a higher IQ, relied on emotions less and reason more, were lower on empathy and higher on systems thinking, and had low group loyalty. Looking at ourselves honestly in the mirror can be unpleasant, but self-knowledge means we no longer have to be slaves to our old patterns of thinking and feeling, and I firmly believe we can turn on group loyalty when we need to. As a career firefighter, I can tell you that there is often drama and fighting in the firehouse, but no matter how much we sometimes hate each other as individuals behind closed doors, when its time to do our job we will go to war for our teammates. It is easy to find team loyalty when you are staring down a destructive beast that can kill you. Sometimes I wish big government was as easily recognizable as fire because the importance and urgency of team loyalty would be easier to see. Big government kills far more people and ruins more lives than fire, so if I’m ever having a hard time getting along with a team member, I picture myself facing down a giant fire with that team member by my side. Even if his methods aren’t ideal, or he’s weaker than I’d like, or he is unpleasant to be around, or his philosophy isn’t as pure as mine, he is in the fight with me and he is my brother. If there is one thing I could leave my fellow libertarians with it is that loyalty to your team is loyalty to your goals and is loyalty to your principles.

Conclusion For the sake of space, I triaged the areas where I see the biggest opportunities for growth in libertarians who are trying to create change. Leadership is not a skill we are born with so much as it is a skill that we can learn and improve upon. I would encourage you to clarify and commit to your life purpose and avoid wasting time with fruitless pursuits and activities. By adopting an antifragile mindset, rejecting safe spaces, and constantly striving to become a better version of yourself, you can identify areas in the system where real change can occur and find ways to be and make that change. By making a commitment to build up your brothers and sisters and go to war for them despite their imperfections, they will help you continue to grow and learn, and working as a team will help you reach your individual goals and achieve more than you could on your own. If you commit to becoming the best version of yourself and seek to actively learn and improve, you can serve the needs of others and engage in true leadership.

Tim Moen Leader, Libertarian Party of Canada www.libertarian.ca i. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/07/110725190044.htm ii. http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0042366

As soon as I filed for office, the advice began. It came from every quarter: Go to every event. Put yard signs everywhere. Make tri-fold brochures and knock on every door. Try to raise enough money for three mailers. Line up speaking engagements. Rule the social media domain. March in every parade.

Campaign by the Numbers How to mine election results to create an effective campaign strategy. By Cindy Dyson Libertarian candidate for Montana House District 5

I dutifully took it all in, filling up my calendar, making budget projections, designing literature, eager to do it all! By week four, I was lost in a maze of impossible and conflicting advice. Mining election results: I needed a strategy specific to my race, my abilities, and my would-be voters. In desperation, I turned to numbers. I turned to the treasury of hard data available through decades of election results, conveniently online at the Montana Secretary of State’s website. Here I would find my strategy, take control of my campaign, and take my best shot at winning. I’m no expert in this area, but I hope that by sharing my process, other candidates will gain insight into how to build race-specific strategies by the numbers. In each state, there are online election records going back decades. Numbers upon numbers, just waiting to be mined for the data we need to create lean and effective campaign strategies. Check on your state’s secretary of state’s office website. I am running for a statehouse seat, Montana House District 5, so I focused on the election results for just my district. Winning number: The first thing I wanted to know was how many votes I need to win. I took all votes cast for the candidates in my race two years ago and subtracted my estimation of the typical decrease in voting in non-presidential race. I used a conservative 15 percent because I perceive people are fairly activated this election cycle. I divided this by 2 as there are two candidates in my race. My number to win is 2,435. Libertarian voters: Next, I wanted to see how many voters in my district are die-hard Libertarians. As there has never been a Libertarian candidate for my house race, I looked at how many voters in my district voted for statewide Libertarian candidates. I took an average of five or six such races. Interestingly, a fairly steady 200 voters here will vote Libertarian if they can. Now I only need 2,235 votes.

Lost Republicans: Next, because there is no Republican in my race, I looked at how many party-line Republican voters are in my district. I only used the voting data from the last two elections as my district was redrawn significantly five years ago. I found an average of 1,800 party-line Republican voters. Most of these voters will vote for me simply to vote against the Democrat. Wow, now I only need 535 votes. Independent Voters: Next, I looked at independent voters. By adding the differences between the races with the highest and lowest Republican votes and the highest and lowest Democrat votes in the 2016 election, I calculated the numbers of independent voters at 1,821 – about 32 percent of all voters that year. Since I need 535 of these people to vote for me, I need about 30 percent of the independent vote to win. Numbers to Strategy: How does all this calculating then guide my campaign strategy? First, the largest voting block I need is Republican voters. I know my objective is to simply keep them. I have good relationships with the two opinion leaders on two of the issues important to these Republicans – abortion and guns. My strategy, therefore, is to use the established networks – newsletters, events, email lists – of these two opinion leaders to message myself (and my opponent’s voting record) on these issues. In addition, I’m creating a 1/3 page insert, highlighting my views on these issues. I will slip these inserts into my brochure while door-knocking in the two conservative-leaning precincts in my district. This strategy requires little money and moderate time. My second biggest necessary voting block is independents. I need one out of every three. This will be my most difficult task and where I need to devote the most money and time. There are two basic approaches to finding and converting these voters: issues and character. Again, I turned to the numbers. Mining Ballot Initiatives: To identify issues that likely resonate for these independents, I looked at voting data for ballot initiatives. I’ll just use one example here: an initiative to relax state medical cannabis laws. The voters in my district favored this by two-thirds vote so I know that independents are overwhelmingly supportive, and I infer that a majority would also favor legalizing recreational cannabis. So legalizing recreation cannabis becomes a pillar of my campaign issue strategy to attract independent voters. I continued looking at such ballot initiative going back a decade or so to mine for other issues likely to attract independent voters. I also looked through my opponent’s voting record and public statements on these issues. In my brochures, I focus on these issues and on character. I use the language of independence, integrity, openness, and hopefulness – characteristics independent voters are drawn to. I am also creating a single page insert for my town’s weekly paper. I do these every two to four weeks, depending on how much is in the treasury. On one side of the insert is a campaign branded calendar of select events near Whitefish. I have color coded each according to categories that appeal to a balanced life – mind, body, family, fun. 14

I am appealing to independents on several levels and with a variety of interests. One voter will link me with the moonlit mountain bike ride, another with the philosophy club. On the other side, I’ve told a graphic and text story of my character and the issues I care most deeply about. The insert is designed to be “fridge-worthy,” so full of useful information that people will stick it on the fridge and use it often. This means my name is there every time they walk through the kitchen. That’s a whole lot of name recognition – something I need desperately as my opponent is an incumbent. Even better, these inserts are cheaper than buying a half page ad and far stickier. Good luck Although I did not realize it as I scrutinized all those numbers, strategizing this way gave me a boost when creating my fundraising letter and my campaign prospectus for potential large donors and volunteers. I had a clear plan to communicate, one based on a solid research and data. One that actually comes across as cultivating victory…because it well could! I hope sharing how I am using election results data to formulate my campaign strategy will be helpful to other Libertarian candidates this year. For me, this approach has extricated me from the thicket of wellmeaning but confusing advice and set my campaign on a trajectory that feels smart, efficient, and effective. Cindy Dyson | www.dysoncindy.com | dysoncindymt@gmail.com

Graphic: Cindy Dyson

I Ran For Office and I Liked It My Libertarian Experience. Jason Fonville

2016-18 have been the greatest years of my short, 45-year life. Why? I was able to break away from being a supporter to being a leader who supports. My only personal change was running toward discomfort through taking massive action steps toward my goals. I’m living life free. I was turned on to the Libertarian Party in 2012 by my good friends Gavin Keefe (RIP) and David Traynor. I felt like I finally found a party that fit me naturally. It was like coming home and not worrying about the way you acted or your beliefs. I got to be me and I knew that I must learn more and investigate what this like-minded Party was all about. I read all I could get online and asked some really stupid questions. I most importantly listened to the answers. Over the next 3 years, I went to local Libertarian meetings where 3 or 4 others attended. I got involved. I learned how to gather signatures and get initiative’s on the ballot. I helped Gavin with his local campaign for Yakima City Council by door knocking and putting out yard signs with some great Libertarians. I’m feeling the Liberty buzz. 2015 I met another great Libertarian mentor Michael Pickens this dude set me on fire. After a couple of road trips with him as my captive. I was asking him question after question and I was able to form a much deeper understanding of my Libertarian Values. In the fall of 2015 Michael put on a Libertarian Leadership seminar and I jumped on it. I made the long drive over Stevens Pass and got to the class just before it started. I was nervous about not being Libertarian enough amongst other Libertarians. Not because I didn’t believe I was Libertarian but because I just didn’t know if I would be able to carry on an engaging conversation. So I asked a lot more questions and listened.

Going into the class I knew that I wanted to become a more active party member. I was looking to see how I could be part of this rush of Liberty. The class was all it took for me to officially spread my wings. Before I left the class that day I decided, with a nudge from Pickens, to run my first local campaign. I was no longer in the support role but the front man for the Party in my hometown. The drive back home my radio was off and my mind was racing. Going to my first State Party Convention was my time to level up and speak in front of my newfound peers. Being gifted with gab is a blessing but speaking in public was scary. I told myself that this convention is a great place to start and knowing that getting uncomfortable will allow me to grow. So I went for it at every opportunity. I stuttered, I stammered but mostly in my mind and at the end of speech they cheered me on. These are my kind of people. The rest of the weekend was a flurry of talking, staying up too late and rising early. It all ended with voting on our State Party Chair and my friend David won. I left for home to officially start my first campaign.

Honestly, when I decided to run for Douglas County Commissioner I really didn’t know what the position entailed. It was, however, the first available chance to run for any office in my local area. What called me to run for any position was something I learned in Libertarian Leadership training. I knew that I could win more votes for our state and our national candidates by running a local campaign. So just by signing up and having Libertarian Party on the ballot, I knew I would help spread the message from a local level up. At the very least I could start conversations and help educate others about the Libertarian Party, even if I’m not a perfect Libertarian. I gained experience and knowledge by doing interviews, filling out questioners and being in a live radio debate. I was able to identify 100’s of local Libertarians and get 100’s of votes. Before I started this campaign I told myself that winning was to be defined by me and just taking the steps of running a campaign was a win. I ran with my heart out and my ears open. I made a solid impression on the old guard and they would seek me out at functions. I stayed true to myself and had more fun than most. My group of activist would always give me words of encouragement and I was able to pick up some haters along the way. You know you are doing something right when you get some haters. I always killed them with kindness and ruffled them with common sense. You don’t have to have everything perfect and you don’t have to have a lot of money to start. My campaign was low budget and high impact. I may have not won this campaign in terms of being the next Douglas County Commissioner but I did win the campaign in changing the way my hometown votes. I have been asked to run again and WE will win.

Think BIG. Be authentic. Love indiscriminately. There are some lessons that can be universally applied to anyone's life to improve their level of joy, satisfaction, and success. Sean K. Treasure distills these lessons into an easy to read format that readers can quickly adapt for themselves. Filled with practical action items, suggestions for further study and relatable stories, this book is sure to help you on your journey of personal growth and development.

THE WAY OF THE

HARVEST SEAN K. TREASURE Use Code: LibertarianLeadership @ SeanTreasure.com for $3 off

THE LIBERTARIAN 7 YEAR

PLAN FOR SUCCESS So, some of us are saying “Why bother with the Libertarian Party? We lost, we lost, we lost in 2016. We've lost for decades.” I get that, but what we have to understand is, 2016 was a turning point. We are now beginning to win. All we need right now is to take all that motivation, everything we have and put it into the right plan. And guess what? We've been working on that plan.

In the next two years, this party must spend its time building its infrastructure. We have to run more people at the local level, but more importantly, we have to be able to teach these people who are running how to grow teams around them and support them with fundraising, organizing, campaigning, and every little piece that matters to building up the infrastructure of our party. We've got to spend the next 2 years doing this. It's 2018 through 2019, and hopefully, we get some real impact. In 2019 and again in 2020, if we keep doing this, we're going to have people who've run multiple times, people who've run often, and all of a sudden now, we've got a solid down ticket. There's a problem though, the top of our ticket has the least chance to win in almost every single state. Even in 2020, in a presidential election, the odds of victory are going to be low. I get that, but the down ticket has the highest chance to win. That's great, but the press is the reverse for us. We get most of our press at the top of the ticket. So our goal over the next 4 years or so, has to be to make sure our top of the ticket promotes down ticket again and again and again, and gets those people at the bottom to get as much press as possible to actually win.

If over the course of the next 3 or 4 years we can get people at the lower levels elected, winning, competent, good at running, with infrastructure prepared, when 2022 comes around we'll get people at the federal level. We will actually close deals. We will have people in Congress, in Senate, and when that happens 2024 comes around. 2024 we get a shot. This is my 7-year plan. We’re building up the bottom now and I'm asking you to do this, right? As always if I ask you to do it, I have to join in, so I'm promising you this; I'm going around the country now. I'm trying to get more people to understand how to build a campaign out and build infrastructure. I’m running for Governor now in 2018 so that I can be one of those people whom I can build my team around the same thing. I've also worked with the Libertarian Leadership Academy so that organization will help train people in how to grow their individual parties, how to make the campaign work better, stronger, faster. That's what we're doing, building infrastructure. If we build our farm team in the coming years 2020, in 2024 we are going to have an amazingly powerful homegrown talent that can actually win. I know some of you are thinking “Larry, shouldn't we just get people in other parties to come join us? Wouldn't it be easier if those guys came to us?” And you know what? Maybe. But here's the problem, if we don’t build our party, if we don't have our own culture when they come to us, they will take us over. It won’t be our party. But if we build our party, they'll want to come to us, and when they do they will join our party not take it over. And that's what I want. It's up to us in these next 3,4,5,6,7 years to make our party so powerful, so strong, that everybody wants to come aboard. And that's up to us to do it. Run, support, help, down ticket first, then up ticket until we win at the top.

CHECK OUT LARRY'S LATEST VIDEOS

www.LarrySharpe.com

PREPARING TO LAUNCH A CAMPAIGN Paul Addis, Three Tme Libertarian Candidate and CM for Matt Dubin

Political campaigns can vary greatly from state to state, and between the sizes of the jurisdictions. As a Campaign Manager, here are my thoughts on preparing for, and running, a political campaign. As far back as the 1st century, we have writings that provide great advice when starting any type of project. Even Jesus himself said, “For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it lest, after he has laid the foundation, and is not able to finish, all who see it begin to mock him, saying, ‘This man began to build and was not able to finish’?” So, my first bit of advice is to ‘count the cost’ and plan accordingly. Similarly, the adage to ‘plan the work and work the plan’ begins with planning the work. Sitting down with your candidate to discuss strategy and tactics is one of the first steps in preparing for a campaign. If you decide to attend or hold events where you’ll invite volunteers, you may need a Volunteer Director. If you decide to actively utilize social media, you may need a Social Media Director. As you decide your strategy and tactics you will create the need for team members to organize, communicate and carry out those activities. Which brings me to the next item, creating a team. An active and reliable campaign team is as important as it is difficult to find. As the Campaign Manager, you may find yourself running multiple aspects of the campaign if you don’t have reliable team members in place. Most states have financial reporting requirements for political campaigns, so the position of Treasurer is extremely valuable. The Treasurer will have the responsibility of understanding and ensuring compliance with, all regulations. This can include donation limits, reporting schedules, and more. The treasurer would be my first target of recruitment for the team. Once you have assembled your team, it is important to set up a regular communication schedule. Perhaps you will meet weekly with the candidate to discuss what has transpired in the previous week and what is coming up in the next week. Afterward, you can send out a weekly status update to the rest of the team, which can include action items for each team member. This is just one way to keep everyone engaged and informed. However you do it, communication is very important. As a former candidate, I can say that one of the most important jobs a Campaign Manager does is keeping up with the schedule of events and dayto-day operations of the campaign. The candidate should have more activity, and related stress, than anyone else on the team. That is due to the fact that their name and face are public at both events and in various media. If things go wrong, they will take the blame publicly. If there is a debate or panel, they will be the one in front of the crowd. Knowing that someone is taking care of the behind-the-scenes duties makes for a more focused and relaxed candidate. When preparing for a campaign, it is very important to identify crucial dates in the election cycle. These would include filing dates, election dates, ballot mailing dates, etc. Similarly, do your best to identify the dates of important local events like fairs and parades, as well as media events such as editorial boards and debates.

Paul Addis

A big decision you will have to make is determining the campaign budget, including both primary and general elections. While the location and jurisdiction will greatly determine the required minimum budget it is difficult, at best, to run a successful campaign without spending money. This brings me to another important point, fundraising. If neither you nor your candidate are comfortable with, or willing to do, fundraising it will be a great hindrance to your efforts to win an election. And while not many people enjoy asking others for money there are, fortunately, some good resources for becoming better at fundraising. For one, Libertarian Leadership Academy has some great resources. But money isn’t the only resource at your disposal. While not every campaign has the same amount of funds, they all have the same amount of time, meaning 24 hours in a day. Budgeting your time is as important as budgeting your finances. Will you spend more time doorbelling versus attending local events? Will you spend more time canvassing local businesses or private residences? These are all topics that can be discussed during your initial strategy sessions, but when it comes to spending your time, remember to learn from others and work at least as smart as you work hard. Which brings me to my final point, use the experiences and knowledge of others. In my current campaign in Seattle, we had the good fortune to be introduced to a local business person who was interested in politics. He had been experimenting with a concept he called ‘digital doorbelling’. He had only used it with one other candidate, and that candidate won their race. Because my candidate is running in a large district (geographically and population-wise), we had been looking for ways to better cover the neighborhoods with the time we had. Thanks to this local business person, who wanted to support our campaign, we learned about digital doorbelling. Here’s how it works. The candidate chooses strategically located precincts throughout the district, and doorbells in those precincts until, in any one neighborhood, they meet someone who is willing to take a selfie with the candidate along with having a nice story to tell about their support of the campaign. Once this is achieved, the candidate can use that as a Facebook post/boost and target residents within a mile radius (or so) of that house, with the story of the supporter and an intro of something like “I was in your neighborhood talking with so-and-so and …” This puts the candidate in the neighborhood with a neighbor talking about their support for the campaign, which are all powerful assets of canvassing. This is an effective way to cover a large area with minimal effort in a meaningful way. This is just one example of how you can learn from others, as well as working smarter. Whatever you do, always be there to support your candidate during both the ups and downs that are inevitable in a political campaign. Once you have counted the cost, arranged your team and planned the work, don’t quit. Give it all you have, and have fun.

Watch the video @ www.ThereIsNoThem.US

Shane's Advice: Use the next couple of months to attend as many community holiday events as possible. Shake hands. Ask friendly questions. Be helpful. Expand your network. In your downtime, read, write and practice speaking. Winter is almost here, so let's get ready for new growth in the spring. And remember, even if you havenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t been elected (yet!) youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re representing millions of us with every interaction you have. This is a season of gratitude, forgiveness, and peace. Be the change we need, and I wish you an abundance of everything the season represents. -Shane Driscoll

Online and Live Training

LLA PODCAST LibertarianLeadership.org

Talks to wake up the world.