First Quarter 2021 Market Report
Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Pinellas REALTOR® Organization
Economic Overview Nationally By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
Despite early predictions of a soft first quarter, economic forecasts have steadily improved and 21Q1 GDP growth is likely to now exceed 6.5%! With the combination of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, improving vaccination rates, substantial pent-up demand from the last year, and sizable amounts of forced savings in the trillions, there is every reason to expect growth of over 8% in 21Q2 and 21Q3. By 21Q4, growth will slow to a still remarkably strong 7% as the economy begins to slowly return to normal trend growth by early 2023. As for the stock market, with low interest rates likely to prevail for some time and corporate earnings growth expected to be solid in 2021, the stock market, as measured by the broadly diversified S&P 500 should continue to do well. While the Federal Reserve has revised their 2021 forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment, they have only slightly modified their 2022/23 forecasts. This means the Fed very much thinks the latest stimulus monies will lead to a shortterm boost to the economy but nothing more. They expect to deliberately look through this powerful short-term growth and any corresponding inflationary effects. As such, they remain strongly wedded to their existing inflationfighting plans and do not anticipate raising short term rates before 2020 and are unlikely to commence tapering of $80 billion/month in Treasuries and $40 billion/month in mortgage-backed securities before the start of 2022. While consumer spending data in February was disappointing due to the combination of unusually harsh weather, the gap between stimulus packages, and payback for very strong growth in prior months, consumer spending more than recovered in March and should be healthy going forward. Relatedly, job growth is clearly turning the corner. After a slight decline in employment in December, job creation has steadily improved and topped 900,000 in March, and over the rest of this year, the economy should easily create between 500,000 and a million new jobs/month. Despite this unusually strong employment growth, the unemployment rate will be hard pressed to decline by more than a percentage point as more job seekers will be drawn to the increasingly vibrant job market. As a result, it will be advisable to focus primarily on job creation rather than the slowly declining monthly unemployment rate. The housing sector continues to look good and construction activity will likely rise by a modest 5-6% pace over 2020 given the many capacity constraints (labor and input prices) builders face. Legislatively, the long-awaited-for “hard” infrastructure bill is now moving to center stage and will be followed by a “soft” infrastructure bill. Despite bi-partisan agreement on the need for improvements to the nation’s “hard” infrastructure including highways, bridges and broadband, these bills will most likely be narrowly passed along partisan lines due to major disagreements about the size of the bills, and how to fund them. If passage is to occur, it must happen prior to the 2022 election cycle. Unlike the many stimulus packages, this legislative effort will boost economic activity over an extended period of most likely five to eight years.
Economic Overview Q1 2021 Florida Overview: In Florida, the statewide unemployment rate was 4.7% as of 3/2021, well below the national average and down substantially from the peak of 14.2% in May of 2020. In Hillsborough County, the February 2021 unemployment rate was 4.2%, while in Pinellas County it was 4.0%. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment bottomed out at 129,575 in late December, rose through early February, peaking at 228,008, but have since declined and are now at 134,896. Recently released 2020 GDP results show a $1.1 trillion Florida economy, down a surprisingly small 1% from 2019 despite pandemic disruption. Like the rest of the country, Florida should benefit from improving vaccination rates and the associated return of tourism and strong job creation.
Across the state of Florida, February median sale prices of single-family homes rose to $314,900, a 16.6% gain over February 2020
Across the state of Florida, February median sale prices of singlefamily homes rose to $314,900, a 16.6% gain over February 2020, while townhome/condo median sale prices rose by the same 16.6% to $233,240. Closed sales of single-family homes in February were up 15.7% while condo/townhome sales were up 28.7%. Statewide, inventories continue declining, with single-family listings down 60.6% to just 1.3 month’s supply of inventory. Condo and townhome inventories, while down 37% from this time last year, are much less constrained, with a 3.4 month’s supply.
The Hillsborough/Pinellas real estate market kicked off 2021 in strong fashion, with more than $4.6 billion in overall sales volume, a nearly 59% increase over 20Q1, despite profoundly low levels of inventory. Across the Counties, there is just a 0.5 month’s supply of single-family homes and a just slightly better 0.55 month’s supply of condo and townhome inventory, far below state levels. Not surprisingly, prices are at all-time highs, with the median single-family home price at $315,000, up from $265,700 last year and $301,500 last quarter. Townhomes and condos show similar percentage gains, with a median price of $211,000, up from $182,500 last year and $198,688 last quarter. Still, despite high prices, sales activity remains surprisingly strong with combined sales of both types of inventory up 31% over last year, a sign of unrelenting demand. Clearly, we are, and will likely remain in, a seller’s market for the foreseeable future.
Hillsborough County Single Family Homes Both median and average prices for single family homes in Hillsborough County for the first quarter of 2021 rose to all-time highs. Median prices of $305,000, were up 17% over the first quarter of 2020 and average sale prices jumped by 20% to $385,786.
The most expensive singlefamily home sold in Hillsborough County during the first quarter of 2021 was for $5.3 million.
First quarter sales volume rose 34% to $1.9 billion, up from $1.4 billion last year. For the first quarter, closed sales rose by 11.0% to 4,969, while new listings fell 12% to 5,510. There are 983 active listings at the end of March, just a half of month’s supply of inventory. Compared to the same period last year, average days on market declined 45% to 29 and percent of sold price to original listing price rose slightly from 98% to 99%.
Median Sold Price 250
$305,000 $260,000
200 150 100
Aver age Sold Price
50 0
2020 2019
FIRST QUARTER
17% 2020 vs 2021
$385,786
400
2021 2020
350
Thousands
Thousands
300
$320,427
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
2020 2019
2021 2020
FIRST Quarter
20%
2020 vs 2021
Closed Sales 5000
4,969
2.5
4,464
2.0
Billions
6000
Dollar Volume
4000 3000 2000 1000 0
2020 2019
First Quarter
$1,430,384,750
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
2021 2020
$1,916,970,050
2020 2019
2021 2020
First Quarter
11%
34%
2020 vs 2021
2020 vs 2021
% Sold Price to Original List Price
98%
99%
2020 2019
2021 2020
1% 2020 vs 2021
First Quarter
New Listings
Aver age Days on Market
6,291
5,510
53
29
2020
2021
2020
2021
First Quarter
-12%
2020 vs 2021
First Quarter
-45%
2020 vs 2021
636 PONCE DE LEON BLVD Belleair, Florida
5 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL | 1 HALF | 4,056 SQF T
120 Harbor View Lane Belleair, Florida
6 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL | 1 HALF | 4,315 SQF T
Hillsborough County Condos and Townhomes Median prices for townhome and condos in Hillsborough County are up 16% to $208,000, while the average sales price jumped 21% to $273,417, both record levels. Sales volume rose a staggering 65% compared to 20Q1 to a record $450 million. The number of sold properties in the first quarter rose 36% to 1,646 and new listings rose 5% to 1,828. There are just 286 active listings on the market at the end of March, which represents about two weeks’ worth of inventory. Compared to 20Q1, average days on market for condos/ townhomes fell to 34 days, down by 36% from last year, and percent of sold price to original list price increased from 98% to 99%.
In the condo/ townhome market, the most expensive home sold so far this year in Hillsborough County sold for nearly $6.9 million.
Median Sold Price $208,000
16%
$179,660
150
2020 vs 2021
100 50 0
2020 2019
2021 2020
First Quarter
Aver age Sold Price $273,417
21% 2020 vs 2021
250
Thousands
Thousands
200
$226,453
200 150 100 50 0
2020 2019
First Quarter
2021 2020
Closed Sales 2000
500
1,646
1000 500 0
$450,044,821
400
1,208
Millions
1500
Dollar Volume
2020 2019
300 200 100 0
2021 2020
$273,554,887
2020 2019
First Quarter
2021 2020
First Quarter
36%
65%
2020 vs 2021
2020 vs 2021
% Sold Price to Original List Price
98%
99%
2020
2021
1%
2020 vs 2021
First Quarter
New Listings
Aver age Days on Market
1,745
1,828
53
34
2020
2021
2019
2020
First Quarter
5% 2020 vs 2021
First Quarter
-36% 2020 vs 2021
930 BAYVIEW PLACE St Petersburg, Florida 6 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL | 1 HALF | 4,512 SQF T
555 5TH AVENUE NE #414
St Petersburg, Florida 3 BEDROOMS | 2 FULL | 1 HALF | 3,373 SQF T
Pinellas County Single Family Homes In Pinellas County, median sales prices of single-family homes rose 18% to a record $330,000, while average prices gained 24% and rose to $442,452, also an all-time high. Overall sales volume for the quarter rose 37% compared to last year to nearly $1.5 billion. Compared to last year, sales gained 11% to 3,273, while new listings declined 13% to 3,528. Available inventory is just 657 homes, a half-month’s supply of inventory. Average days on market for single-family homes in Pinellas County fell 37% to 31 days during the quarter, while percent of sold price to original list price rose from 97% in 2020 to 98% in 2021.
The most expensive single-family home sold in Pinellas County during the first quarter was for nearly $10 million.
Median Sold Price 300
$280,000
18%
$330,000
250 200
2020 vs 2021
150 100 50 0
2020 2019
2021 2020
First Quarter
Aver age Sold Price
24% 2020 vs 2021
500
Thousands
Thousands
350
400
$442,452 $357,919
300 200 100 0
2020 2019
First Quarter
2021 2020
Closed Sales 4000 3000
2.0
3,273
$1,448,145,675
2,954
Billions
3500
Dollar Volume
2500 2000 1500 1000
2021
500 0
2020 2019
1.5
$1,057,292,974 1.0 0.5 0.0
2021 2020
First Quarter
2020 2019
2021 2020
First Quarter
37%
11%
2020 vs 2021
2020 vs 2021
% Sold Price to Original List Price
97%
98%
2019
2020
1% 2020 vs 2021
First Quarter
New Listings
Aver age Days on Market
4,054
3,528
49
31
2020
2021
2020
2021
First Quarter
-13% 2020 vs 2021
First Quarter
-37% 2020 vs 2021
5126 W NEPTUNE WAY Tampa, Florida
4 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL | 1 HALF | 3,359 SQF T
1227 OSOWAW BOULEVARD Spring Hill, Florida
5 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL | 2 HALF | 10,182 SQF T
Pinellas County Condos and Townhomes Condo/townhome prices in Pinellas County booked solid gains compared to 20Q1, with median prices rising 17% to $215,000, and average sales prices gaining 15% to $316,119.
In the condo/ townhome market in Pinellas County, the most expensive property sold for nearly $3.25 million.
Although prices are not quite as high as in recent quarters, overall dollar volume of townhome and condo sales rose by an astounding 60% to nearly $811 million, an all-time record. The number of closed sales compared to last year increased 39% to 2,564, while new listings rose 5% to 2,842. Active inventories are just 689 units, a 0.6 month’s supply of inventory. Average days on market for condos/townhomes in Pinellas County declined from 56 in 2020 to 48 in 2021, a 14% decrease, while percent of sold price to original listing price rose slightly from 97% to 98%.
Median Sold Price 200
$215,000
17%
$184,500
150
2020 vs 2021
100 50 0
2020 2019
2021 2020
First Quarter
Aver age Sold Price 350
15% 2020 vs 2021
Thousands
Thousands
250
300 250
$316,119 $273,929
200 150 100 50 0
2020 2019
First Quarter
2021 2020
Closed Sales
Dollar Volume
2,564
$810,529,907 800
2500
700
1,845
Millions
2000 1500 1000 500 0
600
$505,398,135
500 400 300 200 100
2020 2019
0
2021 2020
2020 2019
2021 2020
First Quarter
Fourth Quarter
60%
39%
2020 vs 2021
2020 vs 2021
% Sold Price to Original List Price
97%
98%
2020
2021
1% 2020 vs 2021
First Quarter
New Listings
Aver age Days on Market
2,705
2,842
56
48
2020
2021
2019
2020
First Quarter
5% 2020 vs 2021
Fourth Quarter
-14% 2020 vs 2021
2690 KEYSTONE ROAD Tarpon Springs, Florida 7 BEDROOMS | 6 FULL | 2 HALF | 10,596 SQF T
1540 GULF Blvd PH7
Clearwater Beach, Florida 3 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL | 1 HALF | 2,962 SQF T
2709 SUNSET WAY St Pete Beach, Florida 5 BEDROOMS | 7 FULL | 5,142 SQF T