SUN VALLEY
20
REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORT
18
Prepared by Coldwell Banker Distinctive Properties | Sun Valley
Table of Contents 3
SUN VALLEY MARKET ACTIVITY SINCE 2005
4
SUN VALLEY OVERALL MARKET PERFORMANCE 2018
6
NORTH OF KETCHUM
7
KETCHUM
8
WARM SPRINGS
9
SUN VALLEY VILLAGE
12
HAILEY
10
ELKHORN
13
BELLEVUE
11
SOUTH OF KETCHUM
14
SOUTH OF BELLEVUE
15
STANLEY BASIN/MACKAY
16
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2019
17
KEY HOUSING INDICATORS
A Note on this Report • All the figures in this report have been generated from the Sun Valley Board of Realtors site on January 1, 2019. The figures do not take into account off-market sales, undisclosed sales prices, FSBOs and other anomalies. • The numbers in each table don’t always add up due to reporting idiosyncrasies, such as Fractional Sales, Garages, Co-listings, Leases and other ways to report a transaction. • Information is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.
Sun Valley Real Estate Activity $926M
2005 to 2018
$660M $627M
$613M $580M
Sold Volume
Sales
$423M
$435M
$404M
$363M $290M $206M
$303M $248M
1182 Sales
773 Sales
672 Sales
404 Sales
346 Sales
427 Sales
524 Sales
749 Sales
728 Sales
693 Sales
758 Sales
784 Sales
958 Sales
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1027 Sales
$307M
2018
While the overall market growth was small — about 5% — it was certainly a pleasant surprise to see the 2018 market outperform the successes seen in 2017. As you read through this report, you’ll notice that most of the “micro-markets” throughout the Wood River Valley were fairly flat, and that a couple of big jumps in the south part of the valley allowed us to post an overall increase. At the back of this report are some figures to help think about what 2019 might be like for the real estate market. Given those figures, we’re bullish on 2019, and expect continued steady growth.
Sun Valley Real Estate Market 2018 Entire Market (All property types, from Challis to Carey) 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
1027
+6.9%
959
784
758
Sold Volume
$660M
+5.1%
$627M
$404M
$435M
Avg Sold Price
$642,648
-1.7%
$653,806
$515,306
$573,879
Residential Home Sales, Entire Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
439
+8.4%
405
357
354
Sold Volume
$375M
+8.3%
$346M
$228M
$251M
Avg Sold Price
$854,214
-0.1%
$854,320
$638,655
$709,039
Condo/Townhome Sales, Entire Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
318
+5.3%
302
241
236
Sold Volume
$176M
+2.5%
$171M
$103M
$111M
Avg Sold Price
$553,459
-1.9%
$566,225
$427,385
$470,338
Vacant Land Sales, Entire Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
154
+0.7%
153
98
85
Sold Volume
$47M
-1.3%
$48M
$37M
$42M
Avg Sold Price
$305,194
-2.7%
$313,725
$377,551
$494,117
HIGHEST SALE: $7,000,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 219 NEW LISTINGS: 1773 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $365,000
4
OVERALL MARKET INSIGHT: The Sun Valley Market has shown steady growth over the last three years. This is terrific news, as it has kept fears of another bubble at bay. Consistent and steady growth is ideal for any market, and helps buyers and sellers.
Sun Valley Real Estate Market 2018 Resort Core (Ketchum, Warm Springs, Sun Valley, Elkhorn—All Property Types) 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
416
+3.5%
401
299
304
Sold Volume
$370M
-1.3%
$374M
$208M
$220M
Avg Sold Price
$889,423
-4.7%
$932,668
$695,652
$723,684
Farm & Ranch Sales, Entire Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
7
0%
7
11
3
Sold Volume
$13.2M
-40.8%
$22M
$12M
$2.4M
Avg Sold Price
$1.86M
-40.8%
$3.14M
$1.1M
$800,000
Commercial Sales, Entire Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
33
-35.3%
51
47
42
Sold Volume
$23.2M
-24.2%
$31M
$17M
$39M
Avg Sold Price
$703,030
+15.7%
$607,843
$361,702
$928,571
Luxury Residential Sales ($1M+ Sold Price—Homes, Condos, Townhomes) 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
148
+22.3%
121
97
97
Sold Volume
$294M
+18.4%
$248M
$175M
$204M
Avg Sold Price
$1.99M
-2.9%
$2.05M
$1.8M
$2.1M
North of Ketchum Market 2018 Entire North of Ketchum Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
30
+76.5%
17
17
21
Sold Volume
$42M
+35.5%
$31M
$31.6M
$40.4M
Avg Sold Price
$1.4M
-22.2%
$1.8M
$1.9M
$1.9M
North of Ketchum Residential Homes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
24
+118.2%
11
11
21
Sold Volume
$33.8M
+80.1%
$18.7M
$19.8M
$33.8M
Avg Sold Price
$1.4M
-17.6%
$1.7M
$1.8M
$1.6M
North of Ketchum Vacant Land Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
5
-16.7%
6
4
6
Sold Volume
$6.5M
-46.6%
$12.3M
$10.9M
$6.6M
Avg Sold Price
$1.08M
-47.3%
$2.05M
$2.7M
$1.1M
HIGHEST SALE: $5,500,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 364 NEW LISTINGS: 33 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $1,000,000
6
MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: One of the “hottest” markets in the entire valley, the increase in home sales North of Ketchum, a more exclusive area with higher-priced homes, is good news for the luxury buyer and seller.
Ketchum Market 2018 Entire Ketchum Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
174
+0.0%
174
132
126
Sold Volume
$162M
-18.0%
$198M
$91.6M
$96.0M
Avg Sold Price
$931,034
-18.3%
$1.14M
$693,939
$761,905
Ketchum Residential Homes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
22
-33.3%
33
20
20
Sold Volume
$42M
-47.6%
$80.3M
$34M
$29M
Avg Sold Price
$1.91M
-21.4%
$2.43M
$1.7M
$1.45M
Ketchum Condo/Townhomes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
99
-2.0%
101
85
72
Sold Volume
$79M
-13.8%
$92M
$48M
$51M
Avg Sold Price
$797,980
-12.4%
$910,891
$564,706
$708,333
Ketchum Vacant Land Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
6
-14.3%
7
10
3
Sold Volume
$13.7M
+191.0%
$4.7M
$7.8M
$1.6M
Avg Sold Price
$2.3M
+242.6%
$671,429
$780,000
$533,333
HIGHEST SALE: $7,000,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 197 NEW LISTINGS: 334 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $527,000
MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: Why are Ketchum’s numbers so far behind 2017? A big part of the decrease is that almost all the Limelights sold in 2017—a huge part of that year’s production.
Warm Springs Market 2018 Entire Warm Springs Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
73
+4.3%
70
44
53
Sold Volume
$65M
+33.6%
$49M
$35.6M
$29.3M
Avg Sold Price
$890,411
+27.1%
$700,000
$809,090
$552,830
Warm Springs Residential Homes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
26
0.0%
26
15
13
Sold Volume
$44M
+73.6%
$25M
$22.6M
$11.8M
Avg Sold Price
$1.69M
+75.8%
$961,538
$1.51M
$907,692
Warm Springs Condo/Townhomes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
37
-7.5%
40
26
33
Sold Volume
$18M
-16.5%
$21M
$11.6M
$14.6M
Avg Sold Price
$486.486
-7.4%
$525,000
$446,154
$442,424
Warm Springs Vacant Land Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
5
+66.7%
3
2
6
Sold Volume
$2.9M
+193.2%
$978,500
$1.2M
$2.6M
Avg Sold Price
$580,000
+77.9%
$326,167
$600,000
$433,333
HIGHEST SALE: $5,200,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 276 NEW LISTINGS: 137 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $465,000
8
MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: The steady increases in Warm Springs’ production over the years is a reflection of the overall market, and suggests that this area is a smart, low(er)-risk area to buy or sell.
Sun Valley (Village) Market 2018 Entire Sun Valley Village Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
64
+3.2%
62
45
37
Sold Volume
$75M
+10.9%
$68M
$39.2M
$40.4M
Avg Sold Price
$1.17M
+7.3%
$1.09M
$871,111
$1.09M
Sun Valley Residential Homes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
14
-41.7%
24
11
14
Sold Volume
$37M
-19.1%
$45M
$19.3M
$26.3M
Avg Sold Price
$2.64M
+40.4%
$1.88M
$1.75M
$1.88M
Sun Valley Condo/Townhomes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
44
+37.5%
32
29
22
Sold Volume
$31M
+98.3%
$16M
$13.1M
$10.9M
Avg Sold Price
$704,545
+40.8%
$500,000
$451,724
$495,455
Sun Valley Vacant Land Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
5
-16.7%
6
3
1
Sold Volume
$6.6M
+0.4%
$6.6M
$4.4M
$3.2M
Avg Sold Price
$1.32M
+20.0%
$1.1M
$1.47M
$3.2M
HIGHEST SALE: $6,500,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 229 NEW LISTINGS: 93 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $630,000
MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: The big story in the Sun Valley village is the increase in Condo/ Townhouse sales. In fact, sales in that sector have doubled since 2015. (Land sales have quintupled in that time, by the way!)
Elkhorn Market 2018 Entire Elkhorn Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
105
+10.5%
95
78
88
Sold Volume
$68M
+13.2%
$60M
$41.8M
$54.3M
Avg Sold Price
$647,619
+2.5%
$631,579
$535,897
$617,045
Elkhorn Residential Homes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
21
+16.7%
18
20
16
Sold Volume
$30M
+10.8%
$27M
$19.9M
$26.3M
Avg Sold Price
$1.43M
-4.7%
$1.5M
$995,000
$1.64M
Elkhorn Condo/Townhomes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
82
+18.8%
69
57
71
Sold Volume
$38M
+29.3%
$29M
$20.6M
$27.7M
Avg Sold Price
$463,414
+10.2%
$420,290
$361,404
$390,141
Elkhorn Vacant Land Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
1
-66.7
3
0
0
Sold Volume
$315,000
-85.1%
$2.1M
$0
$0
Avg Sold Price
$315,000
-55.0%
$700,000
$-
$-
HIGHEST SALE: $3,025,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 200 NEW LISTINGS: 135 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $410,000
10
MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: Elkhorn’s record pace slowed once summer came. But the overall gains the market has shown suggest that people are again recognizing Elkhorn’s value, proximity, amenities, and sunshine!
South of Ketchum Market 2018 Entire South of Ketchum Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
68
+1.5%
67
45
58
Sold Volume
$74M
+2.3%
$72M
$43.0M
$56.9M
Avg Sold Price
$1.09M
+1.9%
$1.07M
$955,556
$981,034
South of Ketchum Residential Homes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
52
+18.2%
44
33
44
Sold Volume
$69M
+8.4%
$64M
$38.6M
$52.2M
Avg Sold Price
$1.33M
-8.3%
$1.45M
$1.12M
$1.19M
South of Ketchum Vacant Land Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
14
-39.1%
23
12
13
Sold Volume
$4.2M
-48.5%
$8.2M
$4.4M
$4.6M
Avg Sold Price
$300,000
-15.9%
$356,522
$366,667
$353,846
HIGHEST SALE: $5,495,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 304 NEW LISTINGS: 181 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $800,000
MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: The area formerly known as “Mid-Valley” has rebounded as a desirable alternative to the higher taxes and crowds, relatively speaking, in the Resort Core.
Hailey Market 2018 Entire Hailey Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
297
+4.6%
284
251
223
Sold Volume
$105M
+19.5%
$88M
$73.7M
$67.3M
Avg Sold Price
$353,535
+14.1%
$309,859
$293,625
$301,794
Hailey Residential Homes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
169
+21.6%
139
137
129
Sold Volume
$78M
+33.1%
$59M
$49.4M
$42.2M
Avg Sold Price
$464,286
+10.4%
$420,460
$360,584
$327,132
Hailey Condo/Townhomes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
54
-6.9%
58
40
33
Sold Volume
$12.5M
-6.4%
$13.3M
$7.9M
$5.3M
Avg Sold Price
$231,481
+0.9%
$229,310
$197,500
$160,606
Hailey Vacant Land Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
38
-15.6%
45
36
26
Sold Volume
$5.96M
-17.3%
$7.21M
$6.0M
$3.5M
Avg Sold Price
$156,842
-2.5%
$160,222
$166,667
$164,615
HIGHEST SALE: $2,850,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 165 NEW LISTINGS: 486 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $314,500
12
MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: Hailey is again driving the Wood River Valley market. The gains in sold volume (particularly since 2015) are astounding—especially in the Residential Home sector. Look for increased land sales this year, with three new developments.
Bellevue Market 2018 Entire Bellevue Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
66
+4.8%
63
55
66
Sold Volume
$20.5M
+10.8%
$18.5M
$18.7M
$16.3M
Avg Sold Price
$310,606
+5.8%
$293,651
$340,000
$246,970
Bellevue Residential Homes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
45
-4.3%
47
41
44
Sold Volume
$16.7M
+5.4%
$15.9M
$14.3M
$11.5M
Avg Sold Price
$371,111
+9.7%
$338,298
$348,780
$261,364
Bellevue Vacant Land Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
14
+27.3%
11
4
10
Sold Volume
$1.5M
+9.5%
$1.4M
$383K
$1.7M
Avg Sold Price
$107,143
-15.8%
$127,273
$95,750
$170,000
HIGHEST SALE: $1,000,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 206 NEW LISTINGS: 118 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $289,000
MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: One of the more interesting numbers in Bellevue is the average sales price for Residential Homes, which has risen 42% since 2015! This is changing the “affordability” of Bellevue.
South of Bellevue Market 2018 Entire South of Bellevue Market (Gannett, Picabo, Carey) 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
36
+5.9%
34
23
20
Sold Volume
$11.2M
-46.2%
$20.8M
$3.7M
$5.5M
Avg Sold Price
$311,111
-49.1%
$611,764
$160,870
$275,000
South of Bellevue Residential Homes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
18
+0.0%
18
15
16
Sold Volume
$7.1M
+24.5%
$5.7M
$2.5M
$4.4M
Avg Sold Price
$394,444
+24.6%
$316,667
$166,667
$275,000
South of Bellevue Vacant Land Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
15
+7.1%
14
6
2
Sold Volume
$1.5M
+16.4%
$1.3M
$879K
$165K
Avg Sold Price
$100,000
+7.7%
$92,857
$146,500
$82,500
HIGHEST SALE: $2,250,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 303 NEW LISTINGS: 71 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $140,000
14
MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: One large Farm & Ranch sale in 2017 has skewed the numbers in this micro-market a bit. Minus that anomaly, the South of Bellevue market has continued to grow at a steady clip.
Stanley Basin & Beyond Market 2018 Entire Stanley & Beyond Market (Challis, Mackay, Sawtooth City, Stanley) 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
47
+14.6%
41
29
36
Sold Volume
$16.7M
+112.3%
$7.8M
$10.4M
$8.1M
Avg Sold Price
$355,319
+86.8%
$190,243
$259,621
$225,000
Stanley & Beyond Residential Homes Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
23
+15.0%
20
8
10
Sold Volume
$12.1M
+147.8%
$4.9M
$2.3M
$5.1M
Avg Sold Price
$526,086
+114.7%
$245,000
$287,500
$510,000
Stanley & Beyond Vacant Land Market 2018
% Chg v 2017
2017
2016
2015
Sales
20
+17.6%
17
2
6
Sold Volume
$2.3M
+67.0%
$1.4M
$503,000
$972,000
Avg Sold Price
$115,000
+40.2%
$82,353
$251,500
$162,000
HIGHEST SALE: $1,500,000 AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET: 303 NEW LISTINGS: 58 MEDIAN SALES PRICE: $258,500
MICRO-MARKET INSIGHT: Larger homes and estates in the Basin are gaining traction, as the average sales price and sold volume numbers indicate. At least one $4M+ home is currently under contract, meaning the Stanley market should continue to grow.
Looking Ahead to 2019 Here are two graphics produced by Keeping Current Matters. Taking information about the market from various reputable sources, KCM illustrates projections for the housing market in 2019.
Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
Projected Home Sales in 2019 (vs 2018; in thousands)
6,277 6,065
16
MBA
6,270 6,075
NAR
6,070
6,180
Freddie Mac
2018
2019
6,042 6,092
Fannie Mae
Key Housing Indicators (from realtor.com) Realtor.com has crunched all the numbers, and here are some of the more interesting findings and prognostications for 2019 and beyond.
+8%
64.6%
+8%
Single-Family Home Housing Starts
Homeownership Rate
Mortgage Payments
+2.2%
5.5%
-2%
Existing Home Price Appreciation
Mortgage Rates at Year’s End
Existing Home Sales
69%
+9.5%
62.3%
Homes with More than 20% Equity
Projected Growth in Equity by Jan 2021
More Income goes to Renting vs Owning
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