2 minute read
INTO THE UNKNOWN
Last December, folks in China began coming down with a brand new virus, one that apparently jumped from pangolins (look them up) to humans via bats in one of that country’s famous “wet markets”. Or it was grown in a Chinese bio-weapons facility. Or it started in their Xinjiang prison camps for the Uyghur Muslims.
This new coronavirus, COVID-19, is either no worse than previous coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, or it’s much worse. It’s either no more deadly, or it’s much more deadly. It either incubates for one week or for three, and it might be transmitted via fecal matter … or it might not.
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In other words, COVID-19 is, for the moment, an unknown, and it is this status as an unknown that could make it a problem for the economy. Human beings do not deal well with unknowns. Most indications point to COVID-19 being no worse than other similar viruses that have spread in the past 20 years. Most healthy people that have contracted it have recovered. The likeliest outcome from COVID-19 for the U.S. economy is a dampening of activity in the middle part of 2020. It should not change our economic fundamentals, but it could impact the economy in a number of ways.
By John Matt Stater
Edward Pan of Colliers’ Los Angeles office have reported a serious lull in business with Chinese investors, and worry more about the ultimate impact on the U.S. economy. Just the same, Jeff Lin also said he expects China to bounce back as it did from the SARS epidemic in 2003.
In short – it won’t be good for Hong Kong, but it also won’t spell the end for the city’s office market, and they believe there is the potential for a strong recovery in the second half of the year.
The watch word here is “fear”. Fear of catching the virus that keeps people from shopping, vacationing and working could have an impact on the economy, and thus the commercial real estate market, but whatever that impact, it will likely be temporary. Stay safe … and wash your hands!
When more people than normal are unwilling to leave their homes, the retail sector will feel the pinch. When supply lines through China are disrupted – and we should apparently begin to feel that disruption in April – e-commerce and the country’s transportation sector should take a hit. How much of a hit is unknown, but it could be enough to harm some companies that are already teetering on the brink of insolvency. It will probably not take healthy companies are turn them into bankrupt derelicts shedding executives from upper floor windows like a tree dropping leaves in a crisp autumn wind. The tourism industry could also take a hit if people decide to skip their summer vacations.
Companies that do regular business with China and East Asia will have trouble in 2020. The investment team of Jeff Lin, David Lin and
By Rosanna Tang
IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON HONG KONG PROPERTY MARKETS
