Statistics Confirm That the Seller’s Market Evaporated by the End of 2024
Now that 2024 has ended, we can see quite clearly that the seller’s market created during the Covid pandemic is now a thing of the past. December was a particularly slow month in a year that saw a great increase in the number of active listings, but little or no corresponding increase in sales, plus some other negative metrics, as shown in the charts at right.
As always, I derive these statistics from REcolorado, the Denver MLS, within a 25-mile radius of downtown Denver instead of using the multicounty “metro Denver” stats reported by the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.
that there were now more homebuyers than homes for sale, which fostered competition and drove home prices to unforeseen levels. From the start of the pandemic in March 2020 until the Federal Reserve began hiking rates in March 2022, home prices grew 37%, per Case-Shiller.
The most obvious indicator of a slowing market is how many listings expire without selling, and that number reached nearly 3,000 in December, about triple the figures for the first two Decembers of the pandemic, 2020 and 2021.
The ratio of closed price to listing price is another key indicator of a seller’s market. It peaked at 106.1% in April 2022, but has been as low as 92.0% since then.
The median sold price has leveled off but is still higher this December than all previous Decembers. It’s just that sellers are still overpricing their homes when they first put them on the market, producing that lower ratio.
The median time on market stayed well below 10 days throughout the pandemic, but has risen steadily since the fall of 2022 and is at its highest level in recent history now — 39 days. The average days on market is at 56 days. This compares to 30 days and 47 days respectively a year ago.
A big factor in the real estate market is always the cost of mortgage loans. At right is a graphic from USNews that charts the impact of interest rates on home prices from 1987 to present. Here’s that website’s interpretation of the chart:
“In late 2022, home sales activity came to an abrupt halt when mortgage rates climbed from about 3% to above 7% in a matter of months.
Buyers are still facing higher mortgage rates than they've seen in recent memory – on top of that, home prices are still staying stubbornly high after the pandemic housing boom. For many, especially first-time homebuyers who lack tappable equity, monthly mortgage payments have become too expensive at these new interest rates.
“The housing market is in a mortgage rate stalemate: Homebuyers are priced out, and homeowners are reluctant to sell and trade in their low mortgage rates.”
So what should we expect in 2025?
Whenever there’s a market slowdown, it produces pent-up demand later on. And I foresee that pent-up demand expressing itself this month and this year in a more balanced market. The big increase is inventory shows that sellers are accepting that interest rates
“With mortgage rates at 3% or even lower, more homebuyers could afford to enter the market in the early 2020s. Home sales activity picked up, but housing inventory was insufficient to keep up with demand. Decades of housing underproduction in the U.S. meant
will stay at present levels, so they are no longer waiting for them to go down before sacrificing their current low interest rate loan to purchase a replacement home. Likewise, I see buyers accepting current interest rates as the “new normal” and getting off the fence.
Open House at 2-BR Condo in Downtown Golden
Expired Listings
Nearly one-quarter of Americans say local and national politics highly influence their decision about where to live, according to a recent survey from Realtor.com. In some age groups, that percentage is even higher.
“With both local and national politicians making decisions that impact daily life, both socially and fiscally, it makes sense that many would prefer to live in areas where the politics align with their own beliefs,” according to Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist.
Many of the respondents to a Realtor.com survey said their political views do not align with those of their neighbors, and 17% have considered moving for that reason.
That percentage was 28% for the millennial generation, who are also the most likely –at 33% - to report that their decisions about where to live are highly influenced by national politics. Among Gen Z respondents, 25% say politics influence their decisions, and among Gen X, it’s 21%. Only 16% of baby boomers felt that way.
Now a company called Oyssey has entered the home search business with an app that includes all the usual criteria plus neighbor-
hood politics — even block-by-block. Calling Oyssey an “app” minimizes the company’s intention, which is to replace Zillow as the go-to real estate search engine by providing more information about listings — including neighborhood politics.
Currently, the app is sold to individual real estate brokers who can invite individual buyers to access it. It’s strictly a buyer’s tool, and brokers will still be using their current MLS for listing homes for sale. The idea is that Oyssey would replace buyer tools, such as email alerts, built into the MLS, and that the buyer agency agreements now required by the NAR settlement would be built into its functionality.
Ultimately, the company wants to partner with the nation’s MLSs to have their app be an included feature of that MLS instead of something brokers need to purchase on the side.
The app was introduced last month in south Florida and some New York cities, but should be available elsewhere, including Colorado, by the end of March 2025.
I am the first Colorado broker to have signed up for it when it comes to our market.
Condos in this building at 722 Washington Avenue (called Washington Station) are in great demand because of its location right in downtown Golden. This listing is Unit 201, which has a great corner location directly above the unit’s deeded parking spot. Moreover, the stairs to the parking garage are right next to the door to this unit. (There’s also an elevator.) This is a mixed use building, with commercial units on the main floor. The unit itself features an open floor plan, with slab granite countertops and cherry cabinets with handles, and an island with breakfast bar to complement the dining area. There’s a balcony outside the living room. It an all windows have mountain view. The bathrooms and kitchen have ceramic tile floors, and the rest of the unit has carpeting in like-new condition. There’s a 7’deep storage room and laundry closet with vinyl flooring. Take a narrated video tour at www.GoldenCondo.info, then come to the open house this Saturday, 11am to 1pm. Or call Kathy Jonke at 303-990-7428 to request a private showing.
$650,000
Originally listed for $750,000, the price is now $100,000 less! There’s so much to love about this home at 7085 W. 32nd Pl.! For starters, it’s a handyman’s delight with an oversized 2-car garage that is heated and has 200 Amps of power, including two 240-Volt circuits! Also, one of the basement bedrooms has been converted into a sound studio with professional soundproofing such that neighbors and the people upstairs wouldn’t be aware of it! Altogether, including that studio with its ensuite bathroom, this home has five bedrooms and three full bathrooms. And it has a full-size bar with bar stools next to that studio in the basement that is to die for. Under the new state law, the basement could be adapted into a 2-bedroom/1-bathroom accessory dwelling unit (ADU) to provide extra income for the owner. To fully appreciate this impressive home, which has been owned and lovingly maintained by the seller for 43 years, take the narrated video tour at www.GRElistings.com, then come to the open house this Saturday, 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Or call Kathy at 303-990-7428.
NOTE: All prior “Real Estate Today” columns are archived at www.JimSmithColumns.com
Jim Smith
Broker/Owner, 303-525-1851
Jim@GoldenRealEstate.com 1214 Washington Ave., Golden 80401 Broker Associates: JIM SWANSON, 303-929-2727 CHUCK BROWN, 303-885-7855
DLUGASCH, 303-908-4835 GREG KRAFT, 720-353-1922 KATHY JONKE, 303-990-7428 CHRIS SHOLTS, 320-491-6494 In-house Loan Officer: WENDY RENEE, 303-868-1903
CARPENTER
Nancy Jean Carpenter December 19, 1939 - December 13, 2024
Nancy Jean Carpenter, 84, passed away at home in Ponca City, Oklahoma on Friday December 13th, 2024.
Nancy loved her family deeply and she was always willing to help. She had a great smile and the best laugh.
Nancy is survived by her sister, Patricia (Mickey) Fitzgerald, brother, Chuck (Jeanne) Jorgensen, daughter, eresa (Michael) Barnett, sons, Timothy (De) Eidenschink, omas (Ava) Eidenschink,
Todd (Angie) Eidenschink, and Tracy Eidenschink, 10 grandchildren, 16 greatgrandchildren, 9 great-great grandchildren and many nieces and nephews. Nancy was preceded in death by her parents Arthur and Cleone, her sister, Sally Jenkins, and a nephew.
Cremation services were provided by Grace Memorial Chapel, Ponca City, Oklahoma. An online guest registry is available at gracememorialchapel.net.
Mary Lucile Allen
November 17, 1931 - December 28, 2024
Mary was born in Salt Lake City, Utah. She grew up on the Western Slope in Eagle, Ri e and Meeker, CO. When Mary was 8 years old her father passed away, so her maternal grandparents helped raise her and her sister. She moved to Broom eld and then Denver when she was a teenager. Mary married Bill Allen in 1948, and they lived most of their married life in Brighton, CO, where they raised their daughters.
e Arthritis Foundation, and as a “Friend of the Library” for Anythink Brighton.
Mary also loved to spend as much time as she could with family and friends at their travel trailer in Estes Park or roaming most of the United States with Bill hauling the trailer behind his pick-up. ey also traveled to Europe several times.
Mary worked as a speech aide for Brighton schools and then spent 15 years working for Valley Bank and Trust. After retiring Mary lled her time as a volunteer with Meals on Wheels, United Methodist Women, Cottonwood Homeowners Association,
Mary is survived by her daughters, Debra Wittke and Patricia Aguirre, and her grandsons, David Wittke and Alex Aguirre. She is preceded in death by both of her parents, Lemuel Miller and Lucile (Miller) Robertson, her husband William (Bill) Allen, and her sister, Juanita (Dowd) Walling.
Colleen June Avey Obituary
Colleen Avey, 87, passed away peacefully to be with the Lord on Friday, December 20, 2024. Colleen will always be remembered as a loving and caring wife, mother, grandmother and great grandmother by all that loved and knew her. Colleen was born on June 6, 1937 to Frederick and Clara (Tautfest) Kissler.
Colleen is survived by her 2 sisters Joyce (Paul) Flot and Judy (Harold) Corliss and her 4 Children: Lyle Avey, Pamela (James) Fuller, Paula (Robert) Cook, and Alison (Erik) Keefer. She has 7 grandchildren, 14 Great Grand Children and 2 Great-Great grandchildren. She was preceded in death by her loving husband of 68 years.
She married Leo Avey on June 7, 1953 in Brighton, CO. Colleen was a homemaker for the entirety of their marriage and raised 4 wonderful children, that she thought and worried about constantly. In her years, after Leo’s death, she moved to Whitewater, CO with her daughter, Alison and Erik Keefer, where she was able to experience the history of the Western Slope culture and history. She enjoyed that so much that she bought books regarding the
subjects of the Grand Mesa and surrounding areas. She enjoyed learning about what she would see from the front window and while sitting on the patio at her new home living with her daughter, Alison. She would often talk about what she had learned with family.
Colleen was involved with the Platte Valley Ri e Association in target shooting with Leo. In 1964 they moved to Fort Lupton, CO to live on the Farm with Leo’s folks, at that time, they took up bowling and they traveled all over the United States bowling in the National Bowling Association tournaments. In 1987, Colleen took up archery hunting to participate with Leo. ey were always doing things together. Colleen retired from bowling in April of 2015 which she enjoyed very much. She was a member of the Brighton Senior Center, which was very enjoyable for her. Cribbage was her favorite game with family and friends.
A graveside service will be held with the immediate family on January 4, 2025 at Olinger Highland Mortuary Heritage Hall. Interment will follow at Olinger Highland Cemetery in the Mausoleum. Celebration of Life will be in 2025 at a date to be determined at a later time.
ALLEN
