Market Trends in Colorado

Colorado Homes Hit a Median $600,000

Despite challenges, REALTORS® across the state share signs of hope for more balance in the near future

Rising interest rates and seasonal growth in inventory have given some potential homebuyers a little larger window of opportunity while others have decided to take a step back from the homebuying search as their dollars just don’t go as far, according to the April 2022 Market Trends Housing Report from the Colorado Association of REALTORS®.

And while conditions have ‘slightly improved’ for some house hunters, strong demand continues to push market measurements to record highs in both in the seven-county Denver-metro area and statewide where the single-family median sales price hitting a milestone high at $600,000.

With all of these conditions at play, the CAR Housing Affordability Index (HAI), a measure of how affordable a region’s housing is to consumers based on interest rates, median sales price, and median income by county, fell more than 10% again in April and sits at its lowest figure since the association began tracking the data in 2010.

With diverse and local factors playing out across the state, REALTORS® across the metro area and state are expressing hope as more signs and conditions point to a shift in the market on the horizon.

• Aurora – Homes are still only on the market between four and 12 days depending on the price. Inventory is still moving, sellers are just not seeing the same flurry of buyers with offers way over the listing price.

• Boulder/Broomfield counties – The day the market turned… It was Easter weekend and based on showing reports, that was the weekend showings averaged more like five or six per weekend instead of 20-30, and suddenly homes were still on the market come Monday morning. Sellers expecting a flurry of activity were sorely disappointed and we started to actually see price reductions trickle in on our morning email alerts. The market is still a strong seller’s market but the tides are turning.

• Colorado Springs – The resilience of the housing market remains steadfast as April brought more appreciation to an already unaffordable market. We stacked up another 15% increase in median sales price across all properties year-overyear. May and June will begin to see longer days on market. If we are lucky enough to see more listings and less buyer demand, we may just have a balance here we have not seen in years.

• Denver County – For the last eight months, the year-overyear median price increase has gone up - but far less than the year before, and less than half as much in some instances. Between Aprils of 2022 and 2021, the median price for a freestanding home in Denver went up 16.3%, down from the previous year’s 21.5%. February shrank from a 21.9% growth to a 11.7% growth over the previous year and with all except two of the last 12 months, the rise has declined. It’s not that prices aren’t increasing, they are, but not nearly as fast as they were.

• Durango/La Plata County – From April 2021 to April 2022, the average price for a single-family home rose 12% to $792,627. Even more dramatically, the condo/townhome average sales price rose more than 76% to almost $600,000. La Plata County has 96 active single-family listings on the market, with 105 pending transactions. There are 24 condo/townhomes actively on the market, with 49 pending transactions. It doesn’t appear that the floodgates have opened yet for buyers.

• Estes Park/Larimer County – The average sales price of homes continues to increase. Single family homes in Larimer County have bumped up 28.5% from 2021 to a whopping $699,719. Townhouse/condos have also kept pace in 2022 with a 22.5% increase to $438,614 over April 2021. Multiple offers potentially, and price points over asking. Single family homes have exceeded list price by 105.1%, and townhouse/ condos have done greater at 105.5% over listing price.

• Fort Collins/Northern Larimer County – Affordability appears further out of reach for many buyers right now. The April median home price in Fort Collins topped $620,000; Windsor at $635,000; Loveland at $565,000; Wellington at $510,000; and Greeley at $455,958. Purchasing at $620,000 with 10% down and a 5.27% interest rate gets you a monthly principal and interest payment of $3,088.

• Grand Junction/Mesa County - New listings are down 4% year over year, pendings are down 13.5% and solds down 12%. Compare that to prices: median is up 19.4% to $374,450, and average sold is up 16.8% to $411,828 year over year with $422,989 for the month of April.

• Jefferson County/Golden – We hit a bit of a wall in the last couple weeks of April. With increasing interest rates, some buyers are now being priced out of the homes they were once seeking to buy – even just a few weeks ago. It is still a very strong seller’s market with the median sales price for singlefamily homes increasing to $724,110 with days on market at 9, and the inventory ticking up 6.5% year-over-year. • Pueblo – The Pueblo housing market continues to demonstrate its strength with new listings up 24.2% in April 2022 compared to April 2021, but they don’t last long. Pending sales were up 40.4% in April compared to a year prior. The median price rose 15.9% over April 2021 to $315,000 with the percent of list price received at 104%.

• Steamboat Springs/Routt County – With 66 total residential properties available, there are certainly some distress calls. April new listings for single-family homes were up 14.3% with the median sales price dropping 23.8% from a year prior - pushing the average sales price year-to-date up 3.4% to $1.17 million. Multi-family was a different story as there were 25% fewer listings, with the median sales price increasing at the same percentage resulting in this year’s median sales price standing at $775,000.

• Summit, Park & Lake Counties – More than 80% of the current residential listings in Summit County are over $1 million. Over half of the pending properties are over $1 million. In March, 44% of all deals were cash, and property values have doubled in the last five years. Although there are currently 243 active listings in the Summit MLS, there are 511 pending properties showing how quickly properties hit the market and go under contract. Current listings in the Summit MLS range from a low-price, single-family home in Park County for $220,000 and a high price single-family home in Breckenridge for $18.99 million. In Summit County, an average priced home is now $2.38 million.

• Telluride – April 2022 sales were down 5% in the dollar amount of sales and 15% in the number of sales as compared to April 2021. That still makes April 2022 the second largest April sales month in our market's history. The Mountain Village comprised 39% of the total dollar sales in San Miguel County likely because it still has more inventory than any of the other sectors of our real estate market.

• Vail – The combination of low inventory and increased rates is impacting the price niches that represent over 50% of our market sales. During the past two years, this segment of the market dropped from 70% of our transactional base to its current level. However, increased sales in the segments kept our dollar volume in a strong positive range. In the last couple of months, a slippage in the upper segment began to rear its head.

Taking a more in-depth look at some of the state’s local market data and conditions, Colorado Association of REALTORS®

market trends spokespersons provided the following assessments:

AURORA

“Are we seeing changes with the increase in interest rates? The answer is a definitive, yes. We are seeing more price reductions on some homes and in some areas. Sellers are perhaps thinking they have hit the top of the current market on pricing. We are seeing some increase in listings, which could be due to the time of year, and we are seeing some median prices go down over the previous month. Buyers should note that, while the market is still hot, they have a better opportunity at getting the home they are looking for.

“Homes are still only on the market between four and 12 days depending on the price. Inventory is still moving, sellers are just not seeing the same flurry of buyers with offers way over the listing price.

"A couple of examples; ZIP code 80013 in central Aurora saw inventory up slightly over March numbers however, the inventory is still down 48% compared to the same time in 2021. The median price in 80013 is up 17% over 2021 from $455,000 to $535,000 however, in March that median price in Aurora was $550,000 which is a $20,000 reduction from the median price last month. Another example is ZIP code 80016 in southeast Aurora and Centennial where inventory is almost double what it was just one month ago, and the median price hit $805,000.

“Just to clarify, the market is still hot. Buyers need to be proactive in a still low inventory environment. That said, sellers need to be prepared that they may not have 20 offers in the first three days and their pricing may need to be adjusted. Buyers may find a little less competition in the market but still need to be aggressive in their search and pricing to find their dream home,” said Aurora-area REALTOR® Sunny Banka.

BOULDER/BROOMFIELD

“We have reported over the last 18 months about a market where listings sell in a matter of days for upwards of 15%-20% over list price with 5-10 offers as a standard typical occurrence. We have mentioned the unsustainability of this kind of market but wondered when it might change. With extremely low inventory and high demand still ruling our market, it seemed the end was nowhere in sight. Then, the interest rates finally changed, buyer’s purchasing power was significantly reduced, and that’s the day the market changed. It was Easter weekend and based on showing reports, that was the weekend showings averaged more like five or six per weekend instead of 20-30, and suddenly homes were still on the market come Monday morning. Sellers expecting a flurry of activity were sorely disappointed and we started to actually see price reductions trickle in on our morning email alerts.

“The market is still a strong, seller’s market but the tides are turning. In Broomfield and Boulder counties, the median home price is up 12-13% respectively, and homes are still selling for more than list price, about 6% over list price on average. Homes are still selling in less than 30 days in Boulder and even faster in Broomfield – an average of 11 days. However, many of the offers with no conditions, appraisal gap coverage, and free rent back for the sellers are starting to adjust. REALTORS® are caught in a quickly-transitioning market, attempting to educate their sellers so as to manage their expectations.

“With only a half-a-month supply of inventory, sellers are still enjoying a strong market but as the buyer pool diminishes due to rising rates and lower purchasing power, the change we all expected someday has finally arrived. They say you only know when the downturn comes right after it happened. It seems to have happened a few weeks ago and with more rate hikes on the horizon, we expect a very different second half of the year compared to 2021,” said Boulder/Broomfield-area REALTOR® Kelly Moye.

COLORADO SPRINGS

“Spring has sprung, and housing has too. The resilience of the housing market remains steadfast as April brought more appreciation to an already unaffordable market. We stacked up another 15% increase in median sales price across all properties year over year. An increase in days on market occurred, which may show a trend change, or it may not. Days

on market increased by 10% for single-family homes and a whopping 60 percent for townhomes/condos. But inventory remains tight and so far, April was a seller’s market.

“The future of real estate may change though. Inflation hit 8.5%, gas is up, food is up, and the Russia/Ukraine war continues. Consumer credit card debt and overall debt is increasing. China remains on lockdown in many of its cities and shortages across the world for goods seems inevitable. As interest rates move north, home affordability becomes an even more distant dream for many. So, while April looks great in the rear view, the biggest question is what happens as we move forward? A recent Bloomberg headline read ‘Record-low Share of Americans Say it’s a Good Time to Buy a Home.” CNBC showed that builder sentiment dropped for a fourth straight quarter, and Rocket Mortgage laid off 3,000 employees -- roughly one-third of its workforce. The lending world is being dropped on its head as the easy refinancing boom, busts. REALTORS® are also seeing buyers now drop out of the market and go back to renting, locally.

“We can scan numerous housing markets nationwide on social media and watch in real time as markets begin to shift. Sure, maybe not the Pikes Peak region, yet. But we hear how showings are dropping, multiple offers are less likely, and gap coverages with escalation clauses are drying up both nationwide and locally depending on price point. While out showing homes we are not standing in line as often. We can set up showings and not have swaths of the calendar not available due to heavy buyer activity. I suspect interest rates are a large part of this. Tack on the dreary daily news headlines and buyer sentiment seems to be a bit more balanced. Fear of missing out seems to be shifting as well. If I was a betting man, I believe May and June will begin to see longer days on market. You could also see the sellers who believe their time is limited to take advantage of the once ‘super-hot’ market and list. And, if we are lucky enough to see more listings and less buyer demand, we may just have a balance here we have not seen in years,” said Colorado Springs-area REALTOR® Patrick Muldoon.

DENVER COUNTY

horizon. You're now only a few moments from exiting the mountains and any second now, you'll be back on the plains. It’s been a wild ride of ups and downs and your gas tank is feeling the ebb and flow of climbing and coasting. Imagine if you can that the Denver real estate market is your car and the Genesee Exit represents April 2022. You've just passed it and although you've eased up on the gas, your car is still going pretty darn fast down the hill. The analogy of the hill represents nothing other than the summit we seem to have just passed though possibly the end of the incline as well. Either way, a very tangible example of a red-hot market that’s still going just over the speed limit and appears ready to, dare we say it, reach level ground in the nearer future.

“Every single month for the last eight, the year-over-year median price increase has still gone up - but far less than the year before, and less than half as much in some instances. We’re coasting, there’s no gas pedal involved but the momentum of gravity is still bringing us down the last mile. Between April of 2021 and 2022, the median price for a freestanding home in Denver went up 16.3%, down from the previous year’s 21.5%. February shrank from a 21.9% growth to a 11.7% growth over the previous year and with all except two of the last 12 months, the rise has declined. It’s not that prices aren’t increasing, they are, but not nearly as fast as they were.

“We must be cautious at this point however, as the signs remind you; ‘You’re Not Down Yet.’ Keep your foot on the pedal and let's see how smooth that last stretch may be. With demand filling in any type of underground tunnel you’d hit on the other side of Green Mountain, we don’t have any indicators that prices will decline or regress in the foreseeable future. They may, and we can hope, simply reach level ground and hang around for just a moment - until we refuel the tank,” said Denver-area REALTOR® Matthew Leprino.

DURANGO/LA PLATA COUNTY

“April failed to bring both spring showers and increased inventory. Durango buyers are hoping for increasing inventory levels and lower buyer demand due to the spring/summer selling season and/or the recent interest rate increase. Time will tell if either will have any effect on the current market.

“Single-family home listings dropped 19% compared to the same period last year. Condo and townhome inventory fell by more than 50% compared to April 2021. Average sales price continues to climb due to the lack of available housing stock. From April 2021 to April 2022, the average price for a singlefamily home rose 12% to $792,627. Even more dramatically, the condo/townhome average sales price rose more than 76% to almost $600,000. I believe this huge increase was due to buyers scrambling to secure properties before the interest rate hike. Condos and townhomes traditionally have been more attainable for our workforce, but even those are becoming out of reach for the majority of buyers.

“La Plata County has 96 active single-family listings on the market, with 105 pending transactions. There are 24 condo/townhomes actively on the market, with 49 pending transactions. It doesn’t appear that the floodgates have opened yet for buyers. We are still hoping for those spring showers to bring May flowers and more listings,” said Durangoarea REALTOR® Jarrod Nixon.

ESTES PARK/LARIMER COUNTY

“The average sales price of homes continues to increase across Larimer County with single-family homes up 28.5% from this time last year 2021 to a whopping $699,719. Townhouse/ condos have also kept pace in 2022 with a 22.5% increase to $438,614 over April 2021, highlighted by the potential for multiple offers and price points over asking. Single-family homes have exceeded list price by 105.1%, and townhouse/ condos have done greater at 105.5% over list price. The interesting contrast between single-family homes and townhouse/condos is the days on market until close. There is a definite lag in the decrease in days on the market in townhome/condos as compared to single-family homes that was the prior trend. Single-family homes have closed 30.2% faster at only 30 days, compared to 43 last year. Townhome/ condos have actually increased days on the market. Compared to April last year at an average of 41 days on the market, similar to single-family homes, but this April up to 76 days, an 85.4% increase,” said Estes Park-area REALTOR® Abbey Pontius.

FORT COLLINS

“Much like a ticking clock, median home prices in northern Colorado marched ever forward and upward coupled with big jumps in the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate. Affordability appears further out of reach for many buyers right now. Freddie Mac data shows the average 30-year fixed interest rate at 5.27% through the week ending May 5. The April median home price in Fort Collins topped $620,000; Windsor, $635,000; Loveland, $565,000; Wellington, $510,000; and Greeley, $455,958.

“With a purchase price in Fort Collins of $620,000 with 10% down and a 5.27% interest rate, that’s a monthly principal and interest payment of $3,088. Wages overall have crept up over the last couple of years, but not enough to offset the tight household budget that a hefty mortgage payment inevitably creates. Conventional wisdom (and lender debt-to-income qualification guidelines) generally recommend to not spend more than 28% of your monthly gross income on housing. Based on the figures above, this would mean that the median home buyer in Fort Collins would need to have a gross income of more than $132,000 a year. Current annual median income for a family of four in Fort Collins is roughly $95,900. Clearly, housing in Fort Collins is affordable for a very narrow slice of Fort Collins wage earners – and that’s to say nothing of the current inflationary factors at play.

“The run-up in home prices over the last couple of years is without precedent in northern Colorado. The pandemic, historically low interest rates, very few houses for sale and not enough houses being built, and a highly desirable quality of life in this area drive household formation and in-migration of residents from other areas of the country. This has created a perfect storm of economic growth due to under supply and sustained high demand for housing. How long can this continue? The uptick in interest rates and sustained inflation is beginning to have a cooling effect on the market. Mortgage loan applications have dropped and there’s anecdotal evidence that while the housing market remains highly competitive, it is not the ultra-red-hot market of March and April.

“The end or the school year will bring about several interesting dynamics: Families will be widely dispersed on vacation, interest rates may continue to inch upward, many buyers will simply be priced out of the market, and many would-be

buyers will simply be absent. Anticipating a shift in the market will be a benefit to both potential sellers and buyers as what happened in March and April may not be the case in June and July,” said Fort Collins-area REALTOR® Chris Hardy.

GRAND JUNCTION/MESA COUNTY

Mesa County and Grand Junction are beginning to feel some impact from the rise in interest rates. Affordability index is down 34% year over year to 62. The only things up right now are the prices, everything else is down. New listings are down 4% year over year, pendings are down 13.5% and solds are down 12%. Compare that to prices: median is up 19.4% to $374,450, and average sold is up 16.8% to $411,828 year over year with $422,989 for the month of April. The bright spot in this is that a buyer might have a better chance right now if they can afford the payments because activity is down,” said Grand Junction-area REALTOR® Ann Hayes

JEFFERSON COUNTY/GOLDEN

“In Jefferson County, the market hit a bit of a wall in the last couple weeks of April. With increasing interest rates some buyers are now being priced out of the homes they were once seeking to buy. Buyers may need to lower their price range to stay in the market as they simply can’t afford the home they were considering just a few weeks ago.

“It is still a very strong seller’s market with the median sales price for single-family homes increasing to $724,110 with days on market at nine, and the inventory ticking up 6.5% year over year. As for townhome/condos the median sales price sits at $439,500, with days on market at six however, the inventory has decreased by 23.5% from this time last year. Homes upgraded with a lot of amenities will still bring multiple offers and most likely receive well above list price,” said Jefferson County-area REALTOR® Barb Ecker.

STEAMBOAT SPRINGS/ROUTT COUNTY

“Is it May Day or mayday? In the Yampa Valley, the answer is based on if you are celebrating springtime in the Rockies or if you are hoping to buy real estate. With 66 total residential properties available in the county for sale, there are certainly some distress calls. April new listings for single-family homes were up 14.3% with the median sales price dropping 23.8% from a year prior - pushing the average sales price year-to-date up 3.4% to $1.17 million.

“Multi-family was a different story as there were 25% fewer listings, with the median sales price increasing at the same percentage resulting in this year’s median sales price standing at $775,000. Months’ supply remains as it has been for several months, one month for homes and 14 days for condos/ townhomes.

“Sadly, the biggest mayday comes for entry-level and first-time homebuyers who have lost buying power due to the increased interest rates – rates that have far exceeded predictions

PUEBLO

April 2021 and up 12.9% year-to-date from 2021. While there are a lot of new listings, they don’t last long. Pending sales were up 40.4% in April compared to a year prior and up 18.8% year-to-date. Buyers are still active and aggressive. Days on market remains in the mid 60-day range. Solds in April 2022 were down 6.9% compared to 2021 but are up 9% year-todate.

“The median price moved up 15.9% over April 2021 to $315,000 as the percent of list price received sits at 104%. There is very limited inventory under $200,000.

“Only seven building permits in Pueblo West were pulled in April, thanks to the ongoing water permits moratorium. The water permit moratorium has been removed from Pueblo West, however, some restrictions have been put in for the number of permits a builder can pull in one month. There were a total of 35 permits pulled for Pueblo County in April 2022, one of the lower monthly totals in quite some time. A few builders have pulled a lot of permits in the Sawyer Ridge area on Pueblo’s north side,” said Pueblo-area REALTOR® David Anderson.

made towards year-end 2021. The combined home and interest rates increase is eliminating some would-be buyers (and competition) from purchasing – although they will be paying rent payments equivalent or more than a mortgage payment. Not unlike other mountain communities, the City of Steamboat Springs has been reviewing implementing shortterm restrictions and may have some decisions made by June. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to properties that have free reign on short-term rentals versus those that do not,” said Steamboat Springs-area REALTOR® Marci Valicenti.

SUMMIT, PARK AND LAKE COUNTY

“Have we reached our peak? Statistics show our prices are still going up and inventory is still down. Even with interest rates creeping above 5%, days on market has gone down yet again. More than 80% of the current residential listings in Summit County are over $1 million. Over half of the pending properties are over $1 million. In March, 44% of all deals were cash, and property values have doubled in the last five years. Although there are currently 243 active listings in the Summit MLS, there are 511 pending properties showing how quickly properties hit the market and go under contract.

“Current listings in the Summit MLS range from a low-price, single-family home in Park County for $220,000 and a high price single-family home in Breckenridge for $18,999,000. In Summit County an average priced home is now $2,383,084.

“Whether it is a buyer or seller’s market, owning property is still one of the best ways to build wealth in America. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, reported that in 2021 a homeowner’s household wealth was $320,000 while a renter’s household wealth was $8,000. So, even if it is hard and competitive to buy a property, long term wealth shows it is worth it,” said Summitarea REALTOR® Dana Cottrell.

TELLURIDE

“April 2022 sales were down 5% in the dollar amount of sales and 15% in the number of sales as compared to April 2021. That still makes April 2022 the second largest April sales month in our market's history. The Mountain Village comprised 39% of the total dollar sales in San Miguel County likely because it still has more inventory that any of the other sectors of our real estate market.

“We see construction everywhere in our country, but it takes a long time from start to finish - generally about two years. For the first time in the last 40 years, houses with plans just approved are contracting. Because inventory is getting less and less, I predict some REALTORS® may not be able to last through the next year or two. Just getting back from the NAR meetings in Washington D.C., our national leadership is predicting a drop in membership starting this year and for the next several years. There is just not enough inventory for everyone in real estate sales to survive over the next few years.

“Lastly, rising mortgage rates will definitely make it harder for first-time homebuyers, but in the high-end markets, our clients generally do better with better returns for some cash flow investments. That being said, the stock market is taking a beating this year, even more so in the last 30 days. Real estate may look like an even better place to invest than stocks and bonds over the next few months,” said Telluride-area REALTOR® George Harvey.

VAIL

“As we have recently noted, the market has begun to change. April 2020 was the beginning of the COVID driven market and, two years later, it appears that the unbelievable market that began July 2020 has made a significant turn. The lower transactional trend we have seen over the past two years is continuing at a slightly accelerated pace, driven by lack of inventory. The other catalyst to slowing unit sales is the rising interest rates for mortgages as effectively, the rate has doubled over the past year. The combination of low inventory and increased rates is impacting the price niches that represent over 50% of our market sales. During the past two years this segment of the market dropped from 70% of our transactional

base to its current level. However, increased sales in the segments kept our dollar volume in a strong positive range.

"In the last couple of months, a slippage in the upper segment began to rear its head. The volatility in the stock market and inflation rates have given cause to some concern with the buyers in this niche. The slippage in the first quarter was accelerated when April represented 67% of the dollar decline for 2022 year-to-date! Based upon the macro market, trying to forecast the significance of the trend is next to impossible. The past two years have achieved market performance with no precedent, and until the volatility of inflation and lending rates materializes, trying to project market performance definitively is not a perfect science. The preceding comments are Macro Market based, so when we look at local factors such as low inventory, minimum projects of new product scheduled, and attainable locals housing, it only adds to the unpredictability.

“The need for a buyer or seller to optimize their transaction is best served with a knowledgeable real estate advisor to assist in setting reasonable goals,” said Vail-area REALTOR® Mike Budd.

The complete reports cited in this press release, as well as county reports, are available online at: http://www.coloradorealtors. com/market-trends/