CommsDay magazine Mobile Benchmark edition by Graham Lynch

2014 Special Edition • Published by Decisive • A CommsDay publication

2014 SPECIAL EDITION CommsDay turns The industry talks history and futures

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COMPLIMENTARY FOR ALL COMMSDAY SUBSCRIBERS AND CUSTOMERS. Published several times annually. CONTRIBUTIONS ARE WELCOME GROUP EDITOR: Petroc Wilton FOUNDER: Grahame Lynch COVER DESIGN: Peter Darby WRITERS: Geoff Long, Richard van der Draay, William Van efner, Grahame Lynch, Tony Chan ADVERTISING INQUIRIES: Sally Lloyd at sally@commsdaymail.com EVENT SPONSORSHIP: Veronica Kennedy-Good at veronica@mindsharecomms.com.au ALL CONTENTS OF THIS PUBLICATION ARE COPYRIGHT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED CommsDay is published by Decisive Publishing, 4/276 Pitt St, Sydney, Australia 2000 ACN 13 065 084 960

5 MOBILE BENCHMARK 2014 6 Introduction 8 How it came about 10 Behind the methodology 13 Voice Telephony 14 4G 17 3G 21 The final verdict 22 Conclusion 23 The future 24-57 COMMSDAY 20th ANNIVERSARY SPECIAL

Real is all That counts

In a world where every user and application brings unique requirements, network performance cannot be generalized. The customersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; experience of performance is all that counts. We call it Real Performance. Join the discussion: #realperformance

Introducing our benchmark We introduce the P3 CommsDay Mobile Benchmark 2014—the first of what we intend to be an annual report of how Australia’s three mobile networks are performing in the real world

ustralia is at the forefront of the smartphone revolution. Recent Telsyte data found that there were 16 million smartphones in the country at 30 June 2014 – that’s roughly one device for every 1.5 Australians – and forecast that number would hit 17.5 million by the end of the year. And last year, Google ranked Australia 6th in the world for smartphone penetration, comfortably ahead of the US, the UK and most of Europe. Optus, Telstra and Vodafone, the country’s three mobile operators, have invested billions in building and upgrading their networks to support the surging popularity of the smartphone. Most notably, over the last few years, they’ve all launched fourthgeneration (also known as LTE) networks and subsequently worked to boost 4G capacity and coverage, with subscribers rushing to adopt the faster mobile technology. Bloomberg last year put Australia third in the world for LTE penetration, and by the end of fiscal 2014, 4G subscriptions made up around 25-35% of the operators’ total user base; this will only increase as handset replacement cycles play out, with most devices sold today being LTE-capable. Of course, more smartphones and higher speeds means more people downloading more data, while customers’ expectations of network performance grow ever more demanding. As well as rapidly expanding their networks, the three operators have each de-

veloped different technology plans to meet these challenges. Many of these strategies are either in their very early stages, or right on the cusp of commercial development. How they work in practice over the next few years will shape, in large part, the mobile market in Australia and the experience for smartphone users on each network. At this key juncture for the Australian smartphone industry, Communications Day and P3 communications are delighted to launch the inaugural 2014 Mobile Benchmark. Unprecedented in its scope and scientific rigour, the benchmark is built on a vast array of in-depth voice and data tests using tens of thousands of data samples from locations around the country. The objective: to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each of the three mobile operators, and to evaluate how their respective investments and network strategies are actually pulling through to shape the end-user experience for Australians. Going forward, we intend to publish a new edition each year based on a fresh set of tests. Thus, the P3 CommsDay Mobile Benchmark will provide an ongoing snapshot of how the operators’ cutting-edge 4G strategies are playing out over a defining time for the industry – and for Australia’s large and rapidly growing base of smartphone users. Petroc Wilton CommsDay Group Editorial Director 6

P3 communications

P3 communications is a leading international consulting, engineering and testing services company. It is part of the P3 Group, which has over 2,500 employees worldwide and posted a turnover of more than €270 million in 2013. The company provides a broad portfolio of independent technical and management consulting services including network planning, engineering, end-to-end optimization, security, QoS and QoE testing, international benchmarking, device testing and acceptance services. P3 communications’ clients include network operators, equipment vendors, device manufacturers, public safety organizations and regulatory authorities around the world; the company’s own experts combine strong technical know-how with many years of management experience.

CommsDay

Communications Day is the primary source of news, information and analysis for the telecommunications industry in Australia and New Zealand. Launched in 1994 as a daily journal, CommsDay is now read each day and frequently cited as a reference by thousands of senior executives, ministers, policymakers and regulators across the sector. The brand has also expanded to include a digital magazine and a program of conferences in Sydney and Melbourne.

Written by: Petroc Wilton Principal benchmark responsibilities, P3 communications: Marcus Brunner, Ralf Pabst Benchmark and testing coordination, P3 communications: Premysl Zelenka, Maziar Kianzad Production: Grahame Lynch Photography: Munir Kotadia Cover: Peter Darby, Munir Kotadia

Ultra-Flexible, High-Capacity, Deep Fibre Solutions ADTRAN has a proud heritage and continuing commitment to invest in Australia. Since establishing local operations in 2000, ADTRAN has become the country’s leading equipment supplier for copper-based, business-class services and the world’s leading supplier of sealed FTTN/FTTdp platforms. ADTRAN is reinventing the networks of service providers around the globe with a full portfolio of ultra-flexible, high-capacity, deep-fibre, solutions. Whether the need be FTTH, FTTN or FTTdp, these solutions provide lowest total cost of ownership while allowing operators to rapidly expand their addressable market and ensure that no customer is left behind.

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How it came about

here are few personal possessions more ubiquitous in modern Australia than the mobile phone – and the smartphone, in particular. As a communications device, as a business tool, even as a fashion statement, the smartphone has become a key part of daily life. Just look at the anticipation and the flurry of media attention around big-name handset releases, with Apple’s iPhone 6 launch one of the most recent highprofile examples. When it comes to choosing a smartphone, there are hundreds of reviews and comparisons available to help consumers make the choice. Media outlets from national newspapers through to specialist tech websites provide a huge amount of detail around the specs, advantages and drawbacks of each new model, sometimes even before it actually hits the market. The handset itself, though, is only half of the smartphone experience. You can buy the fastest, flashiest new phone the day it goes on sale, but it won’t do you much good if you’re plagued by slow downloads or poor call quality because of problems with the network itself. And, while it’s easy enough to check coverage or pricing for the different mobile operators, where can you go to read about the quality of their networks? Each of Australia’s three mobile network operators – Optus, Telstra and Vodafone – have spent billions of dollars to ensure their mobile customers have the best possible experience, whether making calls or using the inter-

P3 communications MD Marcus Brunner and CommsDay’s Petroc Wilton

net. Those investments have gone into everything from core network hardware upgrades to improve performance, to new basestation towers to boost coverage, and even additional radiofrequency spectrum: the specific portion of the ‘airwaves’ that operators are licensed to use for transmitting mobile phone signals. The hard part, though, is measuring how all of that translates into your experience as a smartphone user. Each operator can tell you the network coverage they offer and the range of data speeds you can expect on a particular device, but those ranges are very broad, because the nature of cellular networks means that speeds vary a great deal based on a number of different factors. These days, it’s also possible to access some average data speed reports based on crowdsourced information. Still, it’s a lot more difficult to find in-depth reviews of net8

works – for both voice and data – than it is to find reviews of the latest smartphone. That’s why we’re launching this benchmark. The idea is to provide a resource to help consumers compare the three mobile networks across a wide range of different features: data upload and download speeds, of course, but also factors such as mobile video performance, voice call quality and success rates. All are important parts of the smartphone user experience. Taken together, all this should demonstrate how operators’ huge network investments are pulling through into actual customer experience. The results of the benchmark are all based on several weeks of intensive testing. Two specially outfitted cars, each equipped with arrays of smartphones hooked up to P3 communications’ custom-designed measurement hardware, have been taking tens of thousands of samples

across several weeks. They’ve travelled up and down the country, covering major metropolitan areas, smaller towns and cities and connecting routes to provide the most representative data possible; the areas chosen for the tests account for roughly half of the Australian population. To the best of our knowledge, it’s the first time this kind of in-depth analysis has been performed at this scale. We’ve also tested using very challenging test scenarios and use cases. The technology deployed in Australia’s mobile networks is, in many ways, state-of-the-art in global terms; we’ve aimed to push them to the limits of what they’re capable of when used with the latest smartphones, simulating the experience for very demanding users with cutting-edge devices. This lets the networks really show off what they can do – and also demonstrates most clearly the differences between them. Of course, nobody knows the networks better than the operators themselves. So we spent months consulting with Vodafone, Optus and Telstra before starting the measurements. The emphasis was on transparency, with every aspect of the testing – from the hardware and software used, to the focus areas where the cars themselves would be travelling – up for discussion. The operators all provided plenty of feedback, which we used to help shape the final test parameters. And we’ll continue talking to them after this report is published, too. Each operator is developing major network upgrades that will take effect over the next few months, and we want to make sure that when we start designing the next benchmark, it gives each of them the chance to show how those improvements are taking effect. At the same time, the benchmark is independent and impartial. The final say for the test design, and the score weighting, has been ours. While the operators were given an overview of the test areas and the overall timeframe, we also took careful measures to

make sure the exact testing schedule was kept secret. And, needless to say, the operators have had absolutely no influence over the final results. P3 communications has well over a decade of experience in network testing of this type. In 2013 alone, the company com-

“We spent months consulting with Vodafone, Optus and Telstra before starting the measurements” piled about 40,000 measurement hours in 42 countries across five continents, with its test vehicles covering more than 500,000 miles. It works with clients around the world including network operators, device manufacturers and regulatory authorities. And it’s been providing the test data for an annual mobile network benchmark in Germany since 2002 – the well-known

‘Connect Test’ – adding Austria and Switzerland in 2009. It will be launching a similar public benchmark in the UK this year. Communications Day, meanwhile, has been reporting on the Australian smartphone market through its entire history. The publication is the primary source of news, information and analysis for the telecommunications industry in Australia and New Zealand; launched in 1994 as a daily journal, CommsDay is read each day by thousands of senior executives, ministers, policymakers and senior regulators across the sector. The brand has also expanded to include a digital magazine and an annual program of major conferences in Sydney and Melbourne. With the 2014 Mobile Benchmark, CommsDay has the opportunity to provide a wealth of objective mobile network information – not just for its regular readership, but for a wider audience as well.

HOW THE BENCHMARK WAS DEVELOPED September 2013: P3 communications and CommsDay meet for the first time to discuss the prospect of an Australian mobile benchmark. October 2013: P3 communications and CommsDay formally agree to work together on the inaugural Australian benchmark, to be published in April 2014. Scope and planning work begins. November 2013: Telstra, Optus and Vodafone are notified of the benchmark by P3 communications, given preliminary information around scope, and invited to provide feedback. December 2013: Consultation with operators continues. Test dates are pushed back to August-September 2014 to allow more time for discussion and to refine the test parameters. February-August 2014: Based on continuing consultation, the final test parameters are decided and communicated to operators, including the devices to be used; the towns and cities where the tests will be performed; and the overall timeframe for the benchmark. August 2014: P3 communications and CommsDay discuss and finalise the scoring model for the benchmark, before the first test results are available. 18 August 2014: Testing begins. All operators are notified and, in turn, asked to provide notice of any outages which might impact results. September 2014: Testing concludes. P3 communications begins postprocessing on the results tables. CommsDay begins work on the report itself. 7 October 2014: The P3 CommsDay 2014 Mobile Benchmark is published at the CommsDay Melbourne Congress. 9

Behind the methodology The smartphones Following the P3 communication’s benchmarks in Germany, Switzerland and Austria, two measurement cars were outfitted with the company’s customdesigned hardware and sent out to take samples. Each was set up with an array of nine Samsung Galaxy S4 Cat-4 FD-LTE (model i9506) smartphones, the device chosen for the test early in 2014 after discussion with operators. (There was some discussion of using the TD-LTE S4 Cat-3 for testing on the Optus network, to showcase the abilities of Optus’ parallel TD -LTE rollout: a unique extra layer of 4G capability that it has deployed in limited geographic areas. However, Optus itself proposed that the Cat-4 device, with its superior FD-LTE capabilities, be used across all networks to help ensure the fairest possible comparison.) The firmware used corresponded to the original network operators’ branded versions; if not available, the most up-to-date Samsung firmware was used instead. The mobile tariff plans for the test were selected based on publicly available data and in consultation with the operators. Telstra, Vodafone and Optus themselves provided the SIM cards for testing, and ensured that any fair use policies – which are sometimes used to control data download speeds for customers with very high data usage – would not interfere with the test results. However, test staff also anonymously purchased SIM cards from normal retail outlets for a control comparison, ensuring that the SIM cards used for the test exactly matched those commercially available to consumers. All smartphones were set up with 12 dB attenuation to reflect a balance of real-world conditions, such as users sometimes moving into buildings. They were

also connected to external antennas mounted on the rooftops of the test cars; one for each handset measuring voice telephony, two for each device measuring data performance. Voice measurements One third of the smartphones installed in each of the two vehicles were dedicated to mobile-tomobile telephony measurements between the cars. Speech quality was evaluated using the Perceptual Objective Listening Quality Analysis Wideband algorithm. POLQAWideband has become an important measurement standard for next-generation networks, as operators deploy high-definition voice services and offer compatible handsets; it delivers an advanced level of benchmarking accuracy and adds significant new capabilities for wideband and super-wideband (HD) voice signals, along with support for most recent voice coding and VoIP transmission technologies. All telephony test phones were configured in LTE-preferred mode. It’s important to note that, currently, direct voice-over-LTE is not offered in Australia by any operator. So, when the test cars were in LTE coverage areas, the telephony test handsets were using Circuit Switched Fallback technology to establish and receive voice calls via the older 3G UMTS or GSM technologies. This had the potential to make quite an impact on test results, particularly if operators’ networks were a little slower at switching between the two. Finally, in order to simulate typical smartphone usage – which can often include voice and data traffic together – one of the handsets involved in every call was also set to download emails simultaneously in the background. (This capability, where 10

‘circuit-switched’ voice traffic is handled simultaneously with ‘packet-switched’ data, is known as Multi Radio Access Bearer or mRAB.) Key performance metrics included call setup times, speech quality, call success ratios, and sustainable connections. The difference between the last two metrics is worth explaining; call success ratio looks only at the proportion of calls which do not cut off partway through, or fail to connect completely in the first place. The sustainable connection measurement, on the other hand, looks at the proportion of calls where speech quality does not drop below a certain minimum level more than once. (In user terms, unsustainable calls happen when there’s so much noise on the line, or you have so many problems hearing the other person, that you decide to give up and try again.) Data measurements Two devices per operator in each car were dedicated to data measurement: one set to 3G-preferred, and the other to 4G-preferred. 4G, or LTE, provides much faster data speeds than 3G and is the area where all network operators are concentrating their investments; most handsets sold today are LTE-capable. However, 4G coverage is not yet ubiquitous for any operator and there are still many Australians using 3G-only handsets, so it was important that we also include a full range of 3G -specific measurements in this year’s benchmark. In order to avoid any interference between the 3G and 4G devices – particularly in areas without LTE coverage, where the 4Gpreferred devices would switch back to 3G – the tests were configured in an alternating mode. That is, a few seconds after the 3G-preferred handset finished each measurement, the 4G-

preferred phone started the same measurement. One of the key metrics was the success ratio and session time to access live web pages. The pages used for the test were selected from the popular ranking site Alexa.com but also had to meet a number of other criteria, including stability due to page size, to be chosen as proper test candidates. In addition, the ‘Kepler page’ – a standard reference page maintained by the European Telecommunications Standards Institute – was also used, in order rate the networks’ web browsing performance independently of the complexities of live page structures, and any peering constraints on live servers. Another important service under test was HTTP file transfer, both upload and download. Evaluation here included both user perception and peak network capability testing. For the former, we simulated the transfer of small files like pictures, music files or smartphone apps, using a collection of 1MB for upload and 3MB files for download. For the peak testing, we pushed as much data through the network as possible over continuous ten-second windows (to allow for some ramp-up time) and measured average upload and download speeds. Data testing also included YouTube measurements, looking at success ratios, start-up delays and the percentage of interruption-free running time. We used the original Android YouTube player for a battery of 30-second tests at both low and high resolution (2.7MB videos at 360p SD, 11.9MB video at 720p HD.) Logistics and routes Testing was conducted in Sydney, Newcastle, Wollongong, Canberra, Albury, Shepparton, Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat, Adelaide, Mildura, Wagga Wagga and Bathurst, as well as along the connecting roads and highways. In the larger metropolitan areas, the network tests covered CBD areas, outer metro and suburban zones. The route was carefully optimised, with reference to Australian Bureau of Statistics

population/population density statistics and in consultation with the operators, to provide the most representative overview of customer experience possible within the constraints of the testing budget. It encompassed large metropolitan areas, smaller towns and cities, and the more rural areas between them; the areas used for the test account for roughly half of the Australian population. The test vehicles drove the same overall route around the country in parallel, but avoided staying in the same exact areas at the same time in order to prevent the risk of one car distorting the measurements of the other. They also took different routes within cities, to maximise the area covered. Both vehicles conducted not just mobile drive tests, but also stationary measurements at ‘areas of interest’: railway stations, airports, recreational areas and densely populated residential areas. These types of high-traffic and frequently crowded areas present a challenge for mobile network operators, which have to provision and allocate sufficient capacity for all local users. In total, the test vehicles covered 8,500km in just under four weeks. Across all services combined on all networks, they collected more than 200,000 test samples – the most expansive test that P3 communications has ever done worldwide. Results, scoring and weighting In the ‘raw results’, we display the unweighted test results for each metric in voice, 3G data and 4G data across major metro areas, smaller towns, and 12 connecting

roads and highways. These are objective measurements, straight from the samples taken in the test. Then, in the master score table that follows, we show the weighted aggregate score for each section and the overall scores. Weighting is applied to the final scoring to reflect the relative importance of some key metrics for customer experience. For example, the speech quality of a voice call is pretty important, but the success ratio – the percentage of calls which connect successfully and do not drop out during the call – is critical. Good 3G data quality is significant with many users still using the older data network, but most new handsets sold today will use the faster LTE networks, where operators are concentrating their investment. And while it’s vital to evaluate the smartphone experience outside urban areas, the greatest percentage of Australians live and work in the big cities. Obviously, there is an element of subjectivity in score weighting; we had to make a call on just how important the different metrics were compared to each other. So we consulted very carefully on this element of the benchmark. P3 communications’ work in Germany, Austria and Switzerland provided a tried and tested foundation for the weighting, but we also tailored it to reflect a host of factors in the Australian market like population distribution by geography, operator investment focus and current LTE penetration. The scoring model was locked in before the testing was concluded and the results were finalised.

Raw results: Voice telephony

he most important metric in the voice telephony testing was call success ratio, reflecting both call dropouts and any failures to connect calls in the first place. Few things impact customer experience more than failed or dropped calls; a difference of a few percent in success ratio, therefore, can have a large effect on the final benchmark scores, where success ratio is weighted quite heavily. In major metropolitan areas in particular, all operators will have plenty of network coverage for voice calls, since these can use 3G or even 2G network assets – which are extensive in the big cities. So any dropouts or failures here tend to reflect not a lack of coverage, but problems with tracking mobile users as they move between ‘clusters’ of cellular sites; if the network fails to quickly locate and accurately page a user moving into a new cluster, an ongoing call might be dropped, or a new call might fail. (From the point of view of a user receiving a call, they would not see a missed call, but might instead receive an SMS telling them that somebody had tried to call them and failed.) This, however, is where the transition to and from LTE networks for voice using circuitswitched fallback makes things complicated. In particular, the shift back to LTE after finishing a CSFB voice call can cause network paging problems, particularly if it takes too long. On the other hand, in smaller cities and towns, and particularly between them on highways and connecting routes, success ratios may be more likely to reflect network coverage. Less heavily weighted, but still very important, are metrics such as call setup time (the time between pushing the green button to start a call, and the first ring)

VOICE Voice (metro)

Optus

Telstra

Vodafone

(%)

97.8

99.0

92.8

Call setup time

(seconds)

6.7

9.1

Speech quality

*(MOS-LQO)

2.4

3.6

3.5

(%)

99.6

100.0

99.5

(%)

98.6

98.4

93.7

Call setup time

(seconds)

6.8

8.7

8.4

Speech quality

(MOS-LQO)

2.5

3.6

3.5

(%)

99.4

100.0

99.4

(%)

94.9

97.6

86.8

Call setup time

(seconds)

6.9

7.2

6.7

Speech quality

(MOS-LQO)

2.6

3.6

(%)

99.2

99.7

3.5 97.7

Success ratio

Call sustainability Voice (small cities/towns) Success ratio

Call sustainability Voice (highways) Success ratio

Call sustainability

* Objective Listening Quality – Mean Opinion Score, a standardised scale of telephony speech quality ranging from 1-5.

and speech quality. The use cases simulated by the testing were fairly demanding of the networks, for example with the simultaneous transmission of voice and data, and heavy mobility. These challenging parameters were set specifically to help show detailed, granular differentiation between the three networks, and would reflect the experience of somebody who made very heavy use of their phone. A more casual user, however, might perceive less difference between the three for voice performance. Voice in major metro areas In the major metropolitan areas, Telstra performed well across the board, with the important success ratio at a very high 99%, flawless call sustainability and the highest speech quality – just edging ahead of Vodafone. Vodafone was close on Telstra’s heels for speech quality (both have HD Voice offerings in the market). Its call sustainability was also high. However, Vodafone trailed both competitors on success ratio. 13

Optus shone on call setup time with a lightning-fast 6.7 seconds, and did well in the critical area of call success ratio. However, Optus – the only carrier yet to launch HD Voice – was notably behind both Telstra and Vodafone for speech quality. Voice in smaller cities and towns Here, Optus squeezed narrowly ahead of Telstra for the key success ratio metric, coming in with a strong 98.6% score. Optus also kept a commanding lead on call setup time, but again fell behind both competitors on speech quality. Telstra kept its perfect call sustainability record intact in the smaller cities and towns, scored a strong second place on success ratio and again led the field on speech quality. Its only slight weakness here was in longer call setup times. Vodafone, again, was within a whisker of Telstra for speech quality in smaller cities and towns, and tied with Optus on call sustainability. Vodafone’s success ratio, though, was again

several % lower, hurting its final benchmark score. Voice on highways Away from urban areas, Telstra’s network coverage advantage started to show, with its success ratio well ahead of both competitors. While its call setup times remained marginally longer than its rivals’, it stayed in pole position on speech quality and call sustainability. Optus dropped a few percent in its success ratio on the highways and, again, lost out on speech quality. Vodafone crept ahead of Optus on call setup time outside of urban areas, and maintained its consistently high speech quality score; however, it fell further behind in terms of its call success ratio. Conclusions Telstra performed strongly across the board, with excellent success ratios and call sustainability, and its HD Voice service contributing to very strong speech quality; its coverage investments also shone through in its performance on the highways.

Optus also kept a high success ratio and hit some very quick call setup times, but dropped behind on voice quality. Vodafone, by contrast, was near the top of the field for voice

quality with its own HD Voice offering. However, its performance was hurt by lower success ratios; something that ongoing network optimisation will, potentially address.

Raw results: Data, 4G preferred(LTE) 4G in major metropolitan areas The majority of Australia’s population is concentrated in the large metropolitan cities: the state capitals. That, of course, makes them very important markets for mobile network operators; but these densely populated areas also put much higher demands on the networks themselves. For both these reasons, they’re very important test areas for the benchmark – and, with all three operators investing heavily into cutting-edge LTE coverage across much of Australia’s metro population, you’d expect a close race in the big cities. Indeed, most of the raw results and scores were strong for all operators, and fairly closely

grouped in many test metrics. Telstra came out ahead in the majority of cases with a particularly impressive lead in the time taken to download live web pages, an important category. It also pulled further ahead for

YouTube delivery, both SD and HD. But Optus and Vodafone were just behind in many tests and often neck-and-neck with each other, though Optus ultimately emerged the second-place carrier in the big metro areas.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Vodafone suffered from some temporary network issues during the test period which affected network access and, therefore, its data success ratios in several tests in some cities. While we maintained constant communication with Vodafone about these issues during testing – standard practice should any such events occur during the test window – they still had some effect on the final results for both 3G and 4G. Taking some additional measurements in the affected areas after the benchmark testing had finished – not included in these results – we were able to confirm that those issues have subsequently been resolved, improving success ratios. At the time of this publication, therefore, we’d expect the user experience on the Vodafone network for data in some metro areas to be somewhat better than these figures might indicate, and its scores in the next benchmark to be higher, all other things being equal. 14

4G DATA, MAJOR METRO AREAS

Optus

Telstra

Vodafone

97.9/98.7

99.4/99.8

96.7/98.9

5.1/1.6

3.6/1.0

4.6/1.2

(%)

99.6

99.9

96.1

Session duration

(seconds)

3.8

2.3

2.9

90% faster than:

(kbps)

3226.2

6071.8

4368.2

(%)

99.9

97.5

Session duration

(seconds)

3.6

1.7

3.1

90% faster than:

(kbps)

959.4

3010.1

1359.6

Average throughput

(kbps)

20255.5

23982.1

20419.9

90% faster than

(kbps)

3274.1

5656.4

3971.7

Average throughput

(kbps)

11473.8

16456.8

14998.3

90% faster than

(kbps)

934.2

3725.4

1493.8

Success ratio

(%)

97.1

99.9

73.5

Start-up time

(seconds)

1.6

0.9

1.8

(%)

96.8

99.9

72.9

Success ratio

(%)

94.0

98.7

77.0

Start-up time

(seconds)

2.1

1.4

2.2

(%)

92.5

97.4

74.1

Web page access (live/reference) Success ratio Session duration

(%/%) (seconds/seconds)

File download (3MB) Success ratio

File upload (1MB) Success ratio

File download (peak testing)

File upload (peak testing)

YouTube (SD)

Sam ples wit hout int errupt ion YouTube (HD)

Sam ples wit hout int errupt ion

Optus’ current lack of FDLTE coverage in Canberra did put it at a slight disadvantage there, with the 4G-preferred test handsets reverting to 3G in the area. Vodafone, which currently has a spectrum advantage in some cities, clocked up some very impressive throughput speeds in several categories – outstripping Optus and closing in on Telstra. However, its success ratios were lower in a number of cases, affecting its final test results. 4G in small cities and towns Here, Telstra again took the lead, but with Optus and Vodafone not too far behind and fighting hard for second place. Again, Vodafone’s relatively young LTE network showed off its capabili-

ties, hitting higher throughput numbers than Optus in a number of categories and ultimately giving it the edge. Optus, though, won back some ground with better success ratios – though still below Telstra, which demonstrated both blazingly fast speeds and very high reliability throughout smaller cities and towns. 4G on the highways Just over a year from a June 2013 LTE launch that targeted the state capitals, Vodafone nevertheless put in a very strong 4G performance outside urban areas on the connecting roads and highways. While Telstra narrowly claimed the top spot overall, Vodafone was right behind and indeed led the field on some key 15

metrics – such as the time to transfer small files, and HD YouTube performance. Optus, while trailing its rivals by a short distance, still scored solidly in this category. Conclusions: 4G Overall, Telstra held the top spot across all three geotypes for 4G; indeed, its LTE scores in major metro areas and smaller cities were close to the maxima. A potent combination of reliable data connections and fast download and upload speeds kept it ahead of the 4G pack. But Optus and Vodafone scored highly in many categories too and, depending on the outcome of current investment strategies, may have the opportunity

4G DATA, SMALL CITIES/TOWNS

Optus

Telstra

Vodafone

97.3/97.4

99.4/99.3

95.8/98.2

6.7/2.3

3.8/1.3

4.9/1.6

(%)

99.4

100.0

95.2

Session duration

(seconds)

8.6

2.9

4.9

90% faster than:

(kbps)

1230.8

4443.1

2757.8

(%)

99.7

100.0

96.0

Session duration

(seconds)

5.4

2.7

3.8

90% faster than:

(kbps)

634.4

2162.1

1161.7

Average throughput

(kbps)

11416.0

16895.7

15711.3

90% faster than

(kbps)

810.2

4738.1

2550.8

Average throughput

(kbps)

7381.3

14162.3

8616.7

90% faster than

(kbps)

540.7

3235.2

1251.8

Success ratio

(%)

94.0

100.0

83.5

Start-up time

(seconds)

2.4

1.0

1.6

(%)

92.1

100.0

83.5

Success ratio

(%)

80.1

99.1

81.8

Start-up time

(seconds)

3.7

1.6

2.4

(%)

75.6

97.4

77.5

Web page access (live/reference) Success ratio Session duration

(%/%) (seconds/seconds)

File download (3MB) Success ratio

File upload (1MB) Success ratio

File download (peak testing)

File upload (peak testing)

YouTube (SD)

Sa m p l es wi t h out i nt e r r upt i on YouTube (HD)

Sa m p l es wi t h out i nt e r r upt i on

to close ground on their rival in the LTE stakes. In this year’s benchmark, Optus pulled ahead of Vodafone in larger metro areas, threatening Telstra, while Vodafone just pipped Optus to the post in smaller cities and claimed second place by a larger margin on the highways. However, Vodafone’s main trouble spot was service access and therefore success ratios, with its actual throughput speeds very strong and in many cases comparable with Telstra. With some network optimisation to improve success ratios, it could really bump up its score in future. Optus, meanwhile, has some additional 700MHz and 2500MHz spectrum coming online nationally at the start of next year which

could really boost its performance, as does Telstra. Given these factors, and with the range of other network investment strategies currently playing out for all three operators, the next benchmark might tell a different story. Postscript: what ‘LTEpreferred’ means Because 4G coverage isn’t yet as extensive as 3G, the ‘4Gpreferred’ testing means exactly that: the results reflect the faster 4G technology wherever the test handsets were able to access the 4G network, but outside 4G coverage the test phones would fall back to slower 3G technology. Thus, while we don’t explicitly score operators separately on net16

work coverage, better 4G coverage would tend to push up their LTE-preferred scores across the full range of different test geotypes. The following data does not factor directly into the final scores, but it does give a useful indication of the percentage of samples per operator that actually drew on successful LTE connections in all LTE-preferred testing – and, in turn, gives some idea of their respective LTE coverage. (Percentages taken from the 3MB download test samples.) LTE % Optus

57%

Telstra

79%

Vodafone

55%

4G DATA, HIGHWAYS

Optus

Telstra

Vodafone

92.2/97.4

99.0/99.3

96.3/98.2

7.4/2.3

4.8/1.3

5.0/1.6

(%)

98.6

99.2

97.6

Session duration

(seconds)

10.8

6.3

5.7

90% faster than:

(kbps)

941.0

1815.9

2630.1

(%)

98.6

99.8

97.7

Session duration

(seconds)

8.7

14.3

6.1

90% faster than:

(kbps)

519.3

246.8

819.4

Average throughput

(kbps)

8116.5

12011.8

10291.4

90% faster than

(kbps)

883.2

2004.7

2511.6

Average throughput

(kbps)

3156.2

4764.9

4099.5

90% faster than

(kbps)

242.7

201.5

265.3

Success ratio

(%)

91.5

98.2

89.9

Start-up time

(seconds)

2.9

2.0

(%)

88.9

96.9

89.7

Success ratio

(%)

75.6

86.7

90.0

Start-up time

(seconds)

4.4

3.1

2.5

(%)

69.2

81.5

86.5

Web page access (live/reference) Success ratio

(%/%)

Session duration

(seconds/seconds)

File download (3MB) Success ratio

File upload (1MB) Success ratio

File download (peak testing)

File upload (peak testing)

YouTube (SD)

Sam p l es wit ho ut int e r r upt i on YouTube (HD)

Sam p l es wit ho ut int e r r upt i on

Raw results: Data, 3G preferred 3G in major metro areas There’s no doubt that 4G/LTE is the future of the Australian smartphone market; millions of users are already on the three 4G networks, a great deal of carrier investment is concentrated on 4G, and many of the handsets currently on sale are 4Gcompatible. But handset replacement cycles are long, and a very large number of Australians are still on the older 3G networks. So operators’ strategies for maintaining strong 3G performance remain very important from the end-user

point of view. In the densely populated and commercially important major metro areas, Telstra emerged the leader, with consistently good performance across almost all categories. Its only trouble spot came in the peak transfer testing, on the upload side, but on the other hand it did well with live web page access and YouTube delivery, particularly in HD. Still, Vodafone and Optus – tied for second place overall in the big cities – both threatened their rival, or even beat it in some areas. Vodafone, for example, 17

still struggled slightly on success ratios but blazed ahead of both rivals for the time taken to transfer small files; it also scored highest on peak test file uploads. Optus, for its part, managed a flawless success ratio in uploading of small files, paired with good speeds. 3G in smaller cities and towns Mirroring the scoring in the LTE section, Telstra held onto its lead in smaller cities, while Vodafone climbed past Optus to take a

3G DATA, MAJOR METRO AREAS

Optus

Telstra

Vodafone

97.7/98.2

99.3/98.7

96.1//99.4

6.1/3.1

4.4/2.3

5.3/2.6

(%)

99.3

99.6

96.1

Session duration

(seconds)

7.5

4.7

4.6

90% faster than:

(kbps)

1686.9

2739.4

3354.3

(%)

100.0

99.8

98.1

7.6

10.9

5.7

Web page access (live/reference) Success ratio Session duration

(%/%) (seconds/seconds)

File download (3MB) Success ratio

File upload (1MB) Success ratio Session duration

(seconds)

90% faster than:

(kbps)

626.7

369.0

921.9

Average throughput

(kbps)

7249.6

10070.6

9989.4

90% faster than

(kbps)

1698.6

3047.8

3295.8

Average throughput

(kbps)

1590.4

1190.5

2266.8

90% faster than

(kbps)

516.8

312.3

1056.3

Success ratio

(%)

96.0

99.8

74.8

Start-up time

(seconds)

2.7

1.5

2.2

(%)

95.4

99.6

74.5

Success ratio

(%)

88.4

95.2

78.6

Start-up time

(seconds)

3.4

2.5

2.9

(%)

81.9

90.6

75.8

File download (peak testing)

File upload (peak testing)

YouTube (SD)

Sam pl es wit h out int er r upt i on YouTube (HD)

Sam pl es wit h out int er r upt i on

3G DATA, SMALL CITIES/TOWNS

Optus

Telstra

Vodafone

96.0/96.9

98.6/98.3

96.0/99.7

7.7/4.7

4.6/2.3

5.5/2.4

(%)

99.7

96.4

Session duration

(seconds)

14.6

5.4

6.6

90% faster than:

(kbps)

693.8

2546.6

1976.1

(%)

100.0

97.3

8.9

11.3

5.2

Web page access (live/reference) Success ratio Session duration

(%/%) (seconds/seconds)

File download (3MB) Success ratio

File upload (1MB) Success ratio Session duration

(seconds)

90% faster than:

(kbps)

498.1

365.4

1045.9

Average throughput

(kbps)

4083.5

8581.0

7866.6

90% faster than

(kbps)

735.9

2819.7

2343.2

Average throughput

(kbps)

1417.2

1091.3

2268.0

90% faster than

(kbps)

366.0

259.4

1001.2

Success ratio

(%)

91.8

99.7

82.0

Start-up time

(seconds)

3.2

1.7

2.3

(%)

87.8

98.9

80.9

Success ratio

(%)

65.9

93.8

78.7

Start-up time

(seconds)

5.5

2.7

3.3

(%)

54.2

87.3

74.2

File download (peak testing)

File upload (peak testing)

YouTube (SD)

Sam ples wit hout int errupt ion YouTube (HD)

Sam ples wit hout int errupt ion

3G DATA, HIGHWAYS

Optus

Telstra

Vodafone

92.6/95.7

99.0/97.3

95.3/96.5

7.8/4.3

5.1/2.9

5.2/2.6

(%)

97.5

98.8

97.4

Session duration

(seconds)

12.7

7.3

6.0

90% faster than:

(kbps)

925.9

1812.8

2449.7

(%)

99.5

99.0

97.9

Session duration

(seconds)

11.2

17.6

8.0

90% faster than:

(kbps)

368.4

214.6

402.6

Average throughput

(kbps)

5058.7

6942.4

8011.0

90% faster than

(kbps)

1014.1

1698.0

2610.7

Average throughput

(kbps)

1266.3

797.4

2251.1

90% faster than

(kbps)

275.7

187.2

525.3

Success ratio

(%)

90.1

99.6

86.5

Start-up time

(seconds)

3.1

2.0

2.1

(%)

88.1

99.4

85.9

Success ratio

(%)

72.9

86.9

86.2

Start-up time

(seconds)

5.0

3.2

3.0

(%)

65.9

78.1

82.5

Web page access (live/reference) Success ratio Session duration

(%/%) (seconds/seconds)

File download (3MB) Success ratio

File upload (1MB) Success ratio

File download (peak testing)

File upload (peak testing)

YouTube (SD)

Sam pl es wit h out int er r upt i on YouTube (HD)

Sam pl es wit h out int er r upt i on

close second. Telstra did especially well in live web page testing, the YouTube experience at both standard and high definitions, and download speeds for both smaller files and peak testing, though it dropped behind both rivals on some of the upload tests. Vodafone, on the other hand, did well on the upload side, particularly in peak testing. Optus lagged its competitors somewhat on some of the download tests, and had some problems with HD YouTube playback in the smaller cities and towns.

reliable web page access, and scoring well for SD YouTube playback. Most of the other categories for 3G on the highways, though, saw some of the closest

3G on the highways A tightly run race but Telstra again came out on top here, beating out both rivals with fast and

competition across the entire benchmark; Telstra dipped on peak-test upload speeds, an area where Vodafone did very well,

“Telstra had a significant 3G lead in the major metro areas, but Vodafone and Optus were neck-and-neck for second place and even ahead of Telstra on some specific individual upload metrics”

while Optus contended strongly in almost all categories but lost a little ground on peak-test downloads and HD YouTube playback. Conclusions: 3G The 3G market in Australia is clearly still hotly contended. Telstra had a significant 3G lead in the major metro areas, but Vodafone and Optus were neck-andneck for second place and even ahead of Telstra on some individual upload metrics. The race was much closer in smaller cities and towns and along the highways, though Telstra still kept its 3G lead; in both cases, Vodafone was right on Telstra’s heels, with Optus’ scores putting it not far behind.

The final verdict The final step: taking the raw test results detailed in the previous chapters, applying the weighting developed by CommsDay and P3 communications, and aggregating the different metrics in each category to produce the master score table. As previously mentioned, Operator

Vodafone encountered some temporary network glitches in some cities during data testing which affected its 3G and 4G scores. These problems have subsequently been resolved, so weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d expect the user experience for data on the Vodafone network in

some metro areas to be somewhat better than these figures might indicate, and its scores in the next benchmark to be higher. % indicators in subcategories show the percentage of maximum points attained, in order to avoid rounding display issues.

Max Points

Optus

Telstra

Vodafone

150

122

141

90 30 30

81% 88% 76%

95% 92% 91%

52% 58% 36%

4G-preferred data, total

210

158

194

150

Metro Areas Web Browsing File Download File Upload YouTube Small cities & towns Web Browsing File Download File Upload YouTube Highway Web Browsing File Download File Upload YouTube

126 44.1 25.2 25.2 31.5 42 14.4 8.4 8.4 10.8 42 14.4 8.4 8.4 10.8

103 76% 94% 92% 72% 26 79% 57% 74% 35% 29 75% 91% 66% 49%

119 92% 96% 97% 95% 40 95% 94% 96% 95% 35 96% 98% 64% 72%

88 75% 85% 90% 34% 28 78% 75% 84% 34% 34 88% 96% 71% 68%

3G-preferred data, total

140

118

101

Metro Areas Web Browsing File Download File Upload YouTube Small cities & towns Web Browsing File Download File Upload YouTube Highway Web Browsing File Download File Upload YouTube

84 29.4 16.8 16.8 21.0 28 9.6 5.6 5.6 7.2 28 9.6 5.6 5.6 7.2

60 75% 77% 71% 61% 16 71% 51% 65% 39% 18 73% 71% 77% 43%

72 93% 98% 60% 84% 23 92% 95% 59% 80% 23 94% 88% 65% 68%

60 76% 90% 85% 40% 20 81% 79% 84% 39% 21 84% 93% 89% 44%

374

453

326

Optus 75%

Telstra 91%

Vodafone 65%

Smartphone voice total Metro Areas Small cities & towns Highway

GRAND TOTAL

max 500

Percentage of Maximum Score

The conclusion

he first key takeaway from both the raw results and the final, weighted test scores: all three of Australia’s mobile networks are strong performers. These were exacting tests, specifically designed to push the limits of the most advanced mobile network

technology currently in-market, and the tremendous investment and effort that all three operators have put into their networks clearly shows through in the results. It’s also worth noting that each of the Australian operators looks competitive on a global

scale. The range of scores on display compares well with those for Germany, Austria and Switzerland in the benchmarks that P3 communications ran in the DACH countries last year (this year’s results not yet available, at the time of going to print).

TELSTRA took the ‘best in test’ crown by a clear margin in the inaugural P3 CommsDay Mobile Benchmark, with a powerful combination of excellent voice and data performance. As an early adopter of LTE in the Australian market – it launched in late September 2011, around ten months ahead of second mover Optus – it has the longest experience with the 4G technology, and has also made very substantial investments in its network, both of which came across in its results and scores. In voice, highlights included very high call success ratios, particularly in metro areas, and excellent speech quality scores; on the other hand, its call setup times were relatively long. For 4Gpreferred smartphone data usage, Telstra demonstrated very high reliability with extremely good success ratios, paired with very fast throughput speeds: 90% of file downloads were faster than 6Mbps and 90% of file uploads faster than 3Mbps in metro areas. However, its HD YouTube success ratios took a hit on the highways. And for 3G, Telstra again achieved strong success ratios but fell behind both competitors in the upload stakes. OPTUS, which has been commercially operating its own LTE network since August 2012, showed itself a very strong second-place contender in the test results. Its consistent capability across voice, 4G and 3G is a testament to the investment and expertise it has dedicated to mobile. In the 4G-preferred testing, it demonstrated its reliability, with good success rates for file upand download in all areas, and its performance across the board in metro areas was particularly solid. Outside major metro areas, however, Optus did suffer from lower success ratios for YouTube and this also carried through, to an extent, into its 3G scores. In voice, Optus – the only operator currently without an HD-Voice offering – scored lower on speech quality than its rivals. But the importance of reliability for the customer experience of voice calls cannot be overstated and here Optus did very well, bolstering its overall voice scores. Its voice success ratios were very good in the metro areas and led the field in the smaller cities, only falling away slightly on the highways. It also benefited from short call setup times.

VODAFONE, though in third position in the inaugural benchmark, has clearly come a very long way since the major network issues that it suffered in 2009-10. Back then, it struggled to meet the capacity and coverage demands of the growing smartphone boom. But the firm spent billions in some serious network upgrades across the following years, and that has shown through in the 2014 test results. Even though its LTE network – launched barely over a year ago – is the youngest in Australia, Vodafone racked up some fierce speed numbers in 4G-preferred testing, perhaps partly thanks to the LTE spectrum advantage it currently has in some metro areas. It scored very impressive web browsing session times, often comparable to Telstra, and also put in a strong performance on the highways. Lower success ratios were what mainly pulled its 4G score down. In 3G-preferred testing, Vodafone also clocked up high throughput speeds, with 90% of samples faster than 3Mbps for download and 90% close to 1Mbps upload in metro areas. It did, however, suffer from low success ratios for YouTube sessions. For voice, Vodafone scored very highly on speech quality and benefited from short call setup times on highways; however, it took a hit from degraded call success ratios, a heavily weighted part of the test. 22

The future

he P3 CommsDay 2014 Mobile Benchmark is intended to be the first in a regular series of such reports. The mobile industry in Australia moves very quickly and is at the forefront of trialling, and deploying, some of the newest LTE technology. Right now, each of the operators has a number of major cutting-edge initiatives under development to boost their networks in different ways; we expect to see, and be able to measure, significant improvements by the time the next testing cycle begins. So what do the operators have in store that might change things up in the next benchmark? For Telstra, perhaps the biggest development is the chance to deploy the 700MHz 4G spectrum that it bought at auction in mid2013 for over a billion dollars. Added to its current network, the particular characteristics of that spectrum should give it much greater reach, as well as improving Telstra’s in-building coverage. Telstra will also use 700MHz in combination with the 1800MHz LTE spectrum it currently employs to enable LTE-Advanced carrier aggregation: combining multiple channels to push much higher upload and download speeds on compatible devices. The new spectrum becomes available nationally from 1 January 2015; Telstra has already announced a huge launch across all capital cities and 50 regional locations on that day, and indeed is well advanced in deploying the requisite hardware. It’s already got commercial 700MHz trials in play in a number of areas through special earlyrelease licenses. These very early deployments were just starting in a couple of places when we kicked off testing for this year’s benchmark and compatible smartphones are currently thin on the ground, so it

wouldn’t have been appropriate to work them into the 2014 results. But 700MHz could make a big difference in the next benchmark. Meanwhile, Telstra bought up a chunk of 2500MHz spectrum at auction as well, which when deployed should substantially improve its capacity. The carrier has also refarmed 2G 900MHz spectrum for LTE in some areas, with the option of doing so elsewhere, and has been trialling carrier aggregation using that spectrum too. And for some time, it’s been looking into LTEBroadcast, a technology that could improve video performance over 4G. Optus, for its part, also bought slices of 700MHz and 2500MHz spectrum last year – shelling out for exactly half of what Telstra picked up – and sim-

“Each of the operators has a number of major cutting-edge initiatives under development to boost their networks in different ways” ilarly will be looking to bring that into play on a national scale from the start of next year, with the supporting infrastructure deployment already well underway. Additionally, when benchmark planning begins in 2015, it should also be possible to select test devices that show off Optus’ unique TD-LTE 2300MHz spectrum holdings to full effect. (The Samsung Galaxy S5, for example, might fit the bill, though it was released in Australia too late this year to be used in the 2014 benchmark.) TD-LTE is a slightly different flavour of 4G technology that Optus, uniquely amongst local operators, is using to add an extra layer of capacity and coverage on 23

top of the more standard FDLTE. With major deployments in countries like China, India and Japan, TD-LTE is a wellestablished technology – and could give Optus a powerful edge. While it currently has a slight spectrum advantage in some major cities, Vodafone was the only carrier not to buy extra spectrum in the 2013 auctions, and that will change the relative spectrum stakes next year – but it has announced its own plans to answer the upcoming 700MHz challenge from its rivals. Vodafone will refarm half of the 850MHz spectrum it currently uses for 3G for use in its 4G network, supporting an accelerated rollout to cover some 95% of the metro population by the end of 2015, and providing an immediate benefit for a large number of handsets already in-market supporting the 850MHz band. To ensure its 3G coverage also remains strong, Vodafone will similarly refarm part of its legacy 900MHz 2G spectrum in turn to support 3G. Vodafone is also looking to seize a market-leading advantage on voice. Thanks in part to a new deal with supplier Ericsson to replace and upgrade its entire core network, Vodafone is trialling voice over LTE this year with an eye on a launch next year. That would put it first in market with a VoLTE offering – very much aligned with the Vodafone Group globally, which is pushing VoLTE hard in countries like the UK – and could potentially shake up the voice scoring in a serious way. While circuit-switched fallback presents a major technical challenge that operators must overcome to score highly on the voice front, a carrier with a working VoLTE service could avoid the issue completely.

CommsDay turns 20 I started CommsDay out of a Sydney high rise apartment in 1994. Our first issues were distributed by fax and by the start of our first year we had 200 subscribers. Now we are distributed by PDF—an explicit policy intended to promote our value proposition as a stand apart from the economic barrens of the World Wide Web– and we are equally an event and publishing company. In that time, our teams over the years have created something tantamount to an institution in the sector, which I am proud of. On the occasion of our anniversary, I sought to hand over the pages of CommsDay magazine to the leading lights of the industry. Their memories, thoughts and predictions are here —Grahame Lynch

Malcolm Turnbull What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? I was lucky enough to be involved with the launch of OzEmail, our first big commercial ISP. It was revolutionary then, and the pace of change has not slowed. The internet is the most profoundly transformative infrastructure ever devised by mankind. It has changed the world, it has changed us. The idea that most people can be connected to anything, anyone, 24 hours a day is still mind boggling. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? CommsDay is a great example of how an expert, specialist, industry publication can consistently out-

class the mainstream media. CommsDay has followed the key issues in the telco space – most notably the NBN debate – more consistently and in more depth than anyone else. It was CommsDay which first wrote about how other countries were embarking on next-generation access networks abroad - something most media outlets largely ignored. Phil Dobbie on his podcast was the first person to interview BT's Mike Galvin. And Petroc Wilton’s feature on advanced DSL technologies – interviewing executives from around the world who have actually deployed those technologies – was one of the most informative pieces on this topics I have read. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? The most important thing for all of us, and especially telcos, is to preserve maximum flexibility and optionality. We do not know what the future holds, let alone 20 years hence, and we are kidding ourselves if we think we do. We are living in a time of rapid change and considerable volatility. So the most important quality for any organisation is to be nimble, to develop as much optionality as it can, so that it can take advantage of rapid change rather than trying to deny it because it 24

does not conform with the "future proof" plan written years before.

David Thodey Congratulations to Grahame and the team at CommsDay on your 20th anniversary. CommsDay is a staple read for me and I applaud the scope, depth and balance of your coverage of an ever changing industry with diverse and dynamic interests. Our industry is driving a remarkable transformation across our country, our economy and around the world. Through all the twists and turns of a rapidly changing sector CommsDay is there, taking the pulse of the industry and expertly interpreting the vital signs. In my judgement, few publications have closer ties with the true spirit of our sector and the way it is changing today, tomorrow and always.

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The fact we are now celebrating CommsDay’s 20th anniversary is testament to its principled and long-term commitment to covering the stories, issues, policies and politics of the telco sector. Congratulations on this milestone and your contribution to the ongoing conversation about telecommunications.”

Paul O’Sullivan I joined Optus in 1994 – the same year Communications Day began. I remember the early days of CommsDay. CommsDay, as it has become affectionately known, is an important publication. Under Grahame Lynch’s stewardship, CommsDay has become the go-to record of the day for snippets of trade information, as well as an important vehicle for industry debate and discussion. Of course, twenty years ago, when CommsDay launched its first edition, Optus had just turned two. Our purpose was (and remains) very clear - to bring choice and competition to the Australian telecommunications market. At Optus, customers have always been central to everything we do. That singular focus on the customer was quite revolutionary in its day. Twenty years later, I’m pleased to see that the notion of customer experience is widely embraced – not just by our industry – but by many of Australia’s key service sectors. For me, the personal highlight of the last 20 years has been the

opportunity to be a part of the many amazing Optus teams who have worked tirelessly over the years to bring that choice and competition to the Australian telecommunications market and who have customer experience deeply embedded in their DNA. The last 20 years have brought about many significant industry changes. Fixed line competition, the birth of the mobile market, and the dawn of the internet and broadband were all big game changers for the entire sector. But these advances didn’t happen overnight. Over the years the industry has deployed 2G, 3G and now 4G frequencies, allowing us to deliver fast and more reliable mobile voice and data services across the country. This multi-billion dollar investment provides the critical foundation for today’s digital economy. Looking forward, it’s likely the next twenty years will see an acceleration of change in our industry. 5G, the NBN enabled economy, virtualised and softwaredefined networks. The next few years alone will bring exciting new changes. Optus will continue its role in finding disruptive ways to make the technology affordable and accessible to all Australians and CommsDay will be there to keep information a smarter and smarter market.

scriptions and Yellow Pages print ads were still growing robustly. And a young Comms Day was reporting on the contest between the Telstra CEO, Frank Blount, and Optus CEO, Bob Mansfield, as the Labor government led the opening up to competition of the Australian telecoms industry. Technologists talked about plug and play, digitization, packetization, miniaturization, mobility, and Moore's Law but few foresaw the breakthroughs and upheavals that lay ahead. By 1999, the market cap of the partially privatised Telstra had breached $100 billion, more than the sum of the next four largest listed companies. The P/E multiple of 35 didn't seem hysterical given the exuberant mood of the times. In that year, the Telstra board travelled to Silicon Valley for the first time and were helped to see the future by Steve Ballmer, John Chambers, Larry Ellison and others. The takeout was: 'whatever the question, the answer was the internet'. But by the following year, the dotcom bubble had burst, valuations reverted to historic norms, and the promise of IT+T, already overegged by Y2K, was discredit-

Ziggy Switkowski Twenty years ago, none of us would have given up our landline for an (analogue) mobile phone. In 1994, emails had just appeared in corporates but were a novelty, addressed at the end of the day if time permitted. The internet was confined to think tanks and universities (and the military). The FTA networks were successfully fighting the introduction of subscription TV, and Optus Vision and Foxtel had not yet taken shape. Fixed line numbers, voice minutes, newspaper sub27

ed - for a time. For me personally, the Telstra privatisation journey (T1 and T2) which coincided with the dotcom mania was a highlight. It's hard to recapture the mood of those times when

H a p py

a r s y r e v i n An

COMMSDAY Overture congratulates CommsDay for 20 years of keeping our industry connected. Our hats are off to the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s leading source for daily telco insights.

www.overturenetworks.com 28

many were convinced that the conventional rules of economics no longer applied, and that telecommunications was the most exciting and important industry for the ages. The ride up the curve of expectations was as thrilling as the ride down the slide to reality was painful. Yet if electrification is consistently voted as the most important technological innovation of the 20th century, then the internet and world wide web lead the polls this early in the 21st. In looking to the future we might again ask what if computer processing power and memory were infinite, bandwidth and storage unlimited and free, and everybody and everything are interconnected? Yes, that's the definition of heaven for computer gamers. But it should open up our thinking about what's possible. One can speculate about the appliances of the future, but with care - the iPad is only 5 years old and its momentum is already slowing. Connectivity via wearable accessories, gesture commands, artificial intelligence, substitutes for battery power, are routinely predicted, some are already evident. Can telecommunications companies evolve beyond building infrastructure and retailing connectivity ultimately with utility-like returns? If the current internet is 30 years old, surely it will be different in 20, maybe 10 years? Back in 2004, fixed line broadband speeds were 256kbs and before 3G networks and smartphones, wireless broadband was impractical. But thinking about devices and networks and products, and even customers who are people as against IP addresses, may be old thinking. The language of the future may be about ecosystems the cockpits of cars, the wireless home, the virtual workplace and the internet-enabled SME. Whatever the future holds, I expect that Comms Day will contin-

ue to report events, interpret trends and opine energetically about the dramas of the day. They have served the industry well in their first 20 years and I wish them every success for the future.

John Stanton What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? The advent of the internet leaves every other amazing development (and there are plenty of those) trailing way back beyond its wake. I remember in the early 1990s gathering with a group of telco execs at what used to be OTC as we attempted to make one of Australia’s first VoIP phone calls. The scratchy result saw us nod wisely at each other and declare – “this rubbish will never work.” Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? It’s accurate, topical, staffed by genuine newshounds and educates me a little bit every day. I’m a big fan of Grahame Lynch’s columns, which invariably make me feel a little inadequate because he has joined dots that haven’t even occurred to me. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for 29

telecoms in the next 20 years? I’m getting nothing but clouds... dang it!

Jason Ashton What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? One of the major highlights for me personally was deregulation in 1997 which paved the way for a budding group of telecoms entrepreneurs (Bevan Slattery, Michael Malone, Simon Hackett, etc) to start to build out competitive infrastructure. Other highlights include the advent of the Wi-Fi standard in the late 1990's followed by the WiMAX/LTE standards in the last decade which have collectively completely transformed what is possible with wireless technology (in terms of both performance and cost) and ultimately transformed so many aspects of our everyday lives. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? In our industry CommsDay is considered a must read. It’s not just about the headlines which are typically reported in mainstream media – it’s the insight provided by the experienced CommsDay team and the "pull

no punches" approach that its founder Grahame Lynch has taken for the last 20 years. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? Clearly the NBN and the debate between FTTP and the MTM approach will dominate headlines for a long time yet. The reality is that while this debate rages on the mobile networks continue to capture a larger percentage share of overall telecoms spend every year - eventually the NBN (and the fixed networks in general) will very likely be left with just a small slice of the pie. I think it increasingly unlikely the NBN will ever be in a position to cover its costs let alone repay government capital.

Chris Chapman The Australian Communications Media Authority (ACMA) was created in 2005, mid-way through the CommsDay story. The then bold intent was that the ACMA would act as a ‘converged’ regulator, bringing together the threads of the four converging ‘worlds’ of telecommunications, broadcasting, radiocommunications and the internet, albeit against the backdrop of the on-going existence of siloed (non-convergent) legislation. So that ambition, coupled with that handbrake, has made for an interesting journey thus far.

Of course, the original concepts of convergence stemmed from digitalisation, which in the 90s initially began to break the nexus between the shape of content and the container which carried it. But that phenomenon is now a couple of decades old – documented by CommsDay across its entire 20 year life, which this special edition celebrates! Notwithstanding the transformative years we’ve witnessed and participated in, I nonetheless remain fascinated by how new developments and heightened multi -stakeholder expectations have consistently emerged to inform and challenge us….and occasionally entertain! But now the near conclusion of the ACMA’s first decade and the beginning of the CommsDay’s third coincides with the emergence of a new phenomena: it would seem that markets have almost now digested digitalization. For example, voice communication has grown beyond simple “phone calls” and is often embedded with other media and ways of messaging – unbelievably, a phone call is but an app. A very practical digitalisation project (the switchover to digital television) has been virtually completed in Australia, with the ACMA ( as the regulator/ facilitator) playing a critical role in enabling the resultant spectrum digital dividend. We all now inhabit a much more complex media and communications environment. The world of media and communications is becoming deeper, denser and more intense …and is becoming so at an unprecedented rate. It is driven by ever more intricate and subtle interconnections between networks, devices, services and content, with virtualisation, algorithms, semantic richness and sensor-laden devices apparently poised to continue the evolution towards the ‘Internet of 30

Everything’. It seems unlikely to me that we will settle into a new agreed order or commercial equilibrium in media and communications any time soon. In the future, from the regulator’s perspective, I can only see an increasing need for agile regulation, delivered in a way that is cut-through in its communication, pragmatic in its facilitation and measured in its ‘fit for purpose’ regulatory determinations. Given in this world of the ‘Internet of everything’ the likely inability for formal or direct regulation to deliver on all those regulator attributes, the ACMA will need to further re – deploy its resources to strategies that are ‘light touch’ yet effective – strategies that rely on communications and facilitation, before regulation. Its greatest leverage may stem from it being less of the formal enforcer of regulatory arrangements but more of an influencer (an active player in a connected web of stakeholders). From where I sit, having a daily intimate acquaintance with the various influences and dynamics, the occasional manifestation of the tensions arising and mistakes made as a result of radically – changing business models and their interplay with current Acts and regulatory constructs, I believe all of us (industry, consumer, policymakers and regulators alike) need to much better acknowledge the apparently inevitable movement towards this ever more complex networked world and address it by forging new protocols, tool-kits, constructs and frameworks that accommodate it. So the next decade will be equally telling – and yet again further transformative. CommsDay will be there reporting, observing, opining, and, in its own unique way, facilitating. In working through its suite of reportage, it will no doubt continue to offer brickbats to, along with (hopefully) some bouquets

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about the ACMA. But, as is my constant refrain, ‘brickbats constructively delivered’ are a vital part of that interplay between all the sector’s actors. We respect CommsDay, devour its contents and have a strong sense of trust in its proprietors, editors and writers.

this technology become the most widespread advanced technology ever, with over 7 billion users, is an amazing thing. At Ericsson we had based our business case on 25 million users…. During these years I have also been part of defining the 3G and 4G standards, but I guess “the first cut is the deepest”... Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? If the first 20 years were about connecting everybody, the next 20 years will be about connecting everything. Imagine a world where every item produced will have an IPv6 address and an RFID tag. Could come in handy when somebody needs to recall an unsafe toy, or just to make sure you don’t lose that second sock in the laundry…

ing installed quickly in the noughties to consolidation and scale in the 2010s. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? Most industry relevant, informative, well-researched and exclusive ridden publication ever! Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? Entrant: Disruption and scale through innovation Incumbent: Reduce disruption through scale and innovation.

Håkan Eriksson ANZ CEO, Ericsson

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? During the late 80s I was part of a small group in Europe that standardised and defined the radio specifications of GSM. We used state of the art theories and algorithms like frequency hopping, channel equalisation, interleaved trellis coding and mobile assisted handoff. All impossible to implement at the time, but we worked under the assumption that it would be possible in the 90’s… I remember one night at a bar in Rome 1987, me and my friends sat discussing that maybe we had put the bar to high, maybe it would not be possible, maybe we were starting our careers with a big fiasco... to then during the years that basically are the first 20 years of CommsDay see

David Tudehope CEO, Macquarie Telecom

Bevan Slattery

Founder, Subpartners; Megaport; NextDC; PIPE Networks What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? Watching the changing dynamic in the Australian industry. The rise of resellers/wholesalers particularly of voice and dial-up ISP's post deregulation in the 90's, the commencement of infrastructure based competition with metro Ethernet/fibre and DSLAM's be32

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? It’s easy to focus on the technological changes over the last 20 years – the impact of the smart phone, the “always-on office environment” and indeed the rise of the internet generally but for me, the most fascinating piece is witnessing how our customers grow, adapt and develop through the technology over the years. The transformations I’ve seen in our long term customers is truly remarkable as they’ve ridden the

Network Infrastructure. Network-as -a-Service. ISP. Carrier. Content Delivery Net w or

Carrier. Content Delivery Network. Cloud Provider. Platform. Self-provisioning. Virtual Cross Connect. Connectivity. Data Centres. Peering. Cloud. Ecosystem. Transit. Content Delivery. Internet. Content. Traffic. Hosting. Fibre. Enterprise. Ethernet. Point to Point. Scalable. API. Partners. Interconnection. Providers. Channel. Network Infrastructure. Network-as-a-Service. ISP. Carrier. Peering. Cloud. Ecosystem. Transit. Content Delivery. Internet. Content. Traffic. Hosting. Fibre. Enterprise. Ethernet. Point to Point. Scalable. API. Partners. Interconnection. Providers. Channel. Network Infrastructure. Network-as-a-Service. ISP. Carrier. Content Delivery Network. Cloud Provider. Platform. Self-provisioning. Virtual Cross Connect. Connectivity. Data Centres. Peering. Cloud. Ecosystem. Transit. Content Delivery. Internet. Content. Traffic. Hosting. Fibre. Enterprise. Ethernet. Point to Point. Scalable. API. Partners. Interconnection. Providers. Channel. Network Infrastructure. Network-as-a-Service. ISP. Carrier. Content Delivery Network. Cloud Provider. Platform. Self-provisioning. Virtual Cross Connect. Connectivity. Data Centres. Peering. Cloud. Ecosystem. Transit. Content Delivery. Internet. Content. Traffic. Ho sting . Network Infrastructure. Network-as-a-Service. ISP. Carrier. Content Delivery Network. Cloud Provider. Platform. Self-provisioning. Virtual Cross Connect. Connectivity. Data Centres. Peering. Cloud. Ecosystem. Transit. Content Delivery. Internet. Content. Traffic. Hosting. Fibre. Enterprise. Ethernet. Point to Point. Scalable. API. Partners. Interconnection. Providers. Channel. Network Infrastructure. Network-as-a-Service. ISP. Carrier. Content Delivery Network. Cloud Provider. Platform. Self-provisioning. Virtual Cross Connect. Connectivity. Data Centres. Peering. Cloud. Ecosystem. Transit. Content Delivery. Internet. Content. Traffic. Hosting. Fibre. Enterprise. Ethernet. Point to Point. Scalable. API. Partners. Interconnection. Providers. Channel. Network Infrastructure. Network-as-a-Service. ISP. Carrier. Content Delivery Network. Cloud Provider. Platform. Self-provisioning. Virtual Cross Connect. Connectivity. Data Centres. Peering. Cloud. Ecosystem. Transit. Content Delivery. Internet. Content. Traffic. Hosting. Fibre. Enterprise. Ethernet. Point to Point. Scalable. API. Partners. Interconnection. Providers. Channel. Network Infrastructure. Network-as-a-Service. ISP. Carrier. Content Delivery Network. Cloud Provider. Platform. Self-provisioning. Virtual Cross Connect. Connectivity. Data Centres. Peering. Cloud. Ecosystem. Transit. Content Delivery. Internet. Content. Traffic. Hosting. Fibre. Enterprise. Ethernet. Point to Point. Scalable. API. Partners. Interconnection. Providers. Channel. Network Infrastructure. Network-as-a-Service. ISP. Carrier. Content Delivery Network. Cloud Provider. Platform. Self-provisioning. Virtual

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wave of competition reforms from dial-up and timed local calls to broadband and cloud. Companies like Webjet that are born on the web and a decade on are now world-wide brands enabled by technology. Technology has empowered consumers such that the balance of power between supplier and consumer has shifted and the latter is now very much in control. Macquarie Telecom entered the market at the start of this change (and just prior to CommsDay’s arrival!) and we put customers first from day one. Now a CEO will not open their mouth without uttering how “customers are at the centre of everything...”. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? In the age of “information overload”, it’s becoming harder and harder to filer all the data that might be relevant from that which is a waste of time. For two decades now CommsDay has been one of my trusted advisers to deliver every day, straight to the in-box, the nuggets of important industry news, opinion and conjecture. It’s one of the increasingly rare media sources that actually sets agendas and debates rather than just reflects what others have already reported. It’s also acted as a kind of clearing house for ideas and issues that the industry has had to tackle jointly – how to reform Telstra’s market power, how to best upgrade toward an NBN, how to protect and promote competition. These are all fundamental topics of inquiry for the sector that CommsDay has and continues to lead on. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years?

In 20 years’ time, high speed broadband services for all Australians will sit along education, health, roads and power as the foundations of the economy and functioning communities. The Information Age means that the gathering of vast data sets, the interconnection of devices and the management of infrastructure performance will be the focus of both hosters and telecom companies.

perilous. “Synergy” meant lots of loud conversations/shouting/ woeful singing/and occasional tears and flare-ups. Friday afternoons were often hard to recall the next day. `That building has now been demolished. But it worked, back then. It was constructive chaos. Firm friendships were made, and new entities found their way, collaborated, and prospered.

Blake Murdoch

Paul O’Brien

Chaos. That was my first impression entering CD’s Sydney office in 1994 – on the corner of Liverpool and Bathurst street – to share as Australian bureau chief for The Hollywood Reporter. Also moving in was Media Day, and, not long after, New Line Films. The theory was there would be synergy between three communications-related newsgathering outlets –with a cool film studio link. Desks were crammed together: picture a galley of rowers. Paper was strewn about like snow. Cables snaked which way and that, often ending up in massively over -stacked power boards. The a/c struggled. And as each outlet became bigger, more people were squeezed in. Dividers were an unsuccessful attempt at some privacy. Incredibly we had basic ADSL thanks to a start-up ISP on the same floor (resulting in Grahame disabling Fairfax and the ABC’s entire online operations one day when he kicked a hole in a wall—but that’s another story for another edition). In one corner was The Couch, also known as Grahame’s second bedroom. He’d often be found there sleeping from the night before, or using it for a power nap. There was a fire station next door so phone interviews were

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco?

Media officer, ACMA

Company secretary, Optus

Singtel buying Optus. Meant shareholder commitment and ensured Optus longevity. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? Gives immediate, topical and uniquely informed analysis of industry trends and developments. Can’t take much techie stuff – there is more to life than GHz and MHz Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? Delivering personalised customer services to a single wireless device that provides a customer with all their comms needs.

Glenn Lukey

VP fixed satellite, Optus What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? Over the last 20 years we’ve seen both a technological and social

transformation brought about by what we do in the industry. Starting with mobility for telephone calls and now having the capacity to engage in all aspects of business and personal interactions at an instant. We’ve fundamentally changed the nature of how we all work and how we all communicate and engage with each other. It’s hard not to feel proud to be a part of that!

Who's doing what and why. Not liked: reverential product pitches. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? The beauty of telecoms is no-one really knows! The long term shift to true 'predictive intelligence' technology will be revolutionary...

Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like?

David Kennedy

It’s easy to see what’s going on within the company but Comms Day has been really useful to keep in touch with what’s going on outside of Optus.

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco?

Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years?

The most interesting thing for me was my participation in the 1997 telecommunications reforms as a member of Minister Richard Alston’s office. It was a fascinating time.

Virtualisation of information systems. Communications then becomes the linkage between those core stores of information.

Maha Krishnapillai

Former Optus and Macquarie Telecom executive What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? The colourful arrival of Sol Trujillo and Phil Burgess which finally nailed the notion that Telstra's interests were the national interest .... and that governments need to balance that power asymmetry. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? Liked: Analysis based on balance and societal/business perspective rather than simply reporting.

Research director, Ovum

Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? I never saw an issue that didn’t teach me something new. I can’t think of anything I dislike. I was never in Grahame’s sights! Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? Learning to make money out of data alone. OTT is vertically separating the industry, and if carriage can’t generate its own revenue, then operators will fail.

Paul Sheridan VP satellite, Optus

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? The advancements in modulation 35

techniques and video coding which effectively enabled more services in the same satellite bandwidth – this meant we were able to cost effectively provide the similar services to those enjoyed in the urban areas to the rural and remote regions of Australia thereby making a real difference to people’s lives. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? I read it every morning over breakfast – provides a great summary of the key telco happenings. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? I think battery technology will be critical to telco industry, whether for mobile devices, remote facilities, satellites or backup/recovery systems – increased capacity in smaller packages will a key enabler for the “always on” future generations.

Seán O’Halloran MD ANZ Alcatel-Lucent

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? I’ve worked in various facets of the industry over the past 20 years and the biggest and most significant change has been the constant march of the internet, from what was really a geek fascination to what is a defining part of everyday life. We’re part of a digital revolution on par with the industrial revolution, and we’re only just at the beginning. There’s a whole bunch of things that have underpinned that massive change to mainstream the internet, particularly innovation in technology and the way services

have evolved to meet customer needs in new ways. These have made the internet part of our lives and the next steps will be about how this translates into beneficial lifestyle change. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? CommsDay is always there. It’s certainly followed me as I’ve changed offices and email inboxes over the years and has effectively been a morning briefing on everything that happens across the market on a daily basis. That sense of being in-touch and knowing what all the moving parts are doing in such a fastpaced sector is extremely valuable in business. CommsDay has always hit a high mark on the big news and issues. It has consistently presented honest journalism, even as it has presented sometimes stronger opinions and views than you might see in other media.

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? The first thing that strikes me about the past two decades is the meteoric rise of mobile telecommunications from the early days of big, bulky “bricks” offering voice services only and costing $4000 (about $1,000 per kilo of phone!). We then fast forward with two decades of rapid evolution to digital, slim-line, smartphones capable of anywhere, anytime connectivity and the rise and rise of mobile data. It’s been an extraordinary transformation and sometimes we forget how far we’ve come in a relatively short space of time. Two decades ago mobiles were a curiosity or a novelty with relatively few owning one; today they are commonplace to the extent that there are more mobiles services in operation than people – 32 million services in operation for a population of 23 million.

Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years?

Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like?

The big task we have is to create the right environment for the next stages of the digital revolution. The internet is mainstream and an unavoidable part of everyday life. How can we get the best of this incredible tool to benefit our lives? Kids are right in tune with technology, but my observation is that they don’t always have the capacity to balance it in their lives. I have the sense this next stage won’t be so much about technology advances as it will be about how we manage technology, how we take control of technology and our data while allowing creativity, innovation and real lifestyle benefits to flourish.

Tracking this extraordinary evolution alongside the industry, has been CommsDay – a respected and highly valued voice. If you want to know the issues that are making headlines, you head for CommsDay early in the morning. I like its easy-to-read format; I also enjoy its balanced approach where it seems to give everyone a fair go and does not seem to be driven by any particular agenda – frank and fearless! It’s great to be interviewed by CommsDay journalists who know the turf and can appreciate that our industry can often be part of the solution and is not necessarily the problem. What’s not to like!

Chris Althaus

Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for

CEO, AMTA

telecoms in the next 20 years? As you know, crystal ball gazing is notoriously unreliable. However, I have had a peek through the swirling mists of time to 2034 and see acceleration of change in an essentially mobile dominated world – but one that also features the dissolution of the boundaries between currently evolving aspects of our industry. We will not be talking about the internet-ofthings or M2M or fixed vs mobile infrastructure – the level of connectivity will be completely ubiquitous, supported by an amalgam of technologies that service all aspects of how we live. The keys: investment, innovation and infrastructure.

Anne Hurley 20 years ago I was working as the legal adviser in the Office of the Telecommunications Authority (OFTA) in Hong Kong. It was an amazing time as Hong Kong moved to implement the policy of replacing the monopoly of Hong Kong Telecom with a competitive industry. It was following in the wake of not only Australia's steps to telecommunications competition (through duopoly as the toe in the water) but the increasing global take-up of competitive policies. There was much admiration for how Australia was implementing the policy, and the evolving Australian framework provided a role model in many ways for the inaugural Hong Kong experiment – interconnection regime, access regime, anti-

competitive regime, consumer protection regime to name but a few. The industry in Hong Kong invited many Australian professionals to be part of the transformation, and so it was that Alex Arena was heading OFTA and in addition to myself there was Chris Zull and Russell Emery as advisers. Legal luminaries such as Peter Leonard, Peter Waters, Stephe Wilkes and Michael Reade were heavily involved as legal advisers in crafting the environment. It was in this capacity that I first met the amazing Comms Day team and formed valuable professional and personal relationships. A particular melting pot for global industry conversation was (and still is I believe) the Pacific Telecommunications Conference (PTC) held every year in January in Hawaii. I attended my first of many PTCs whilst I was still working in Hong Kong in January 1994 and it was either there or PTC January 1995 that I first met Grahame Lynch and Natalie Apostolou. I recall their enthusiasm in meeting everyone, and the energetic conversations around the PTC agenda topics of the day – which back then were quite visionary in the focus not only on emerging competitive models but on 'convergence'. That was the start of CommsDay’s, and journalists were already doing what they have continued to do best: get to know the industry players, understand and analyse the issues, and provide informed commentary. Over the following years, my journey with Comms Day has included some shared initiatives which I would like to think have really given shape to Australia's telecommunications industry and served to keep a focus on the vision for the future. As CEO of ACIF, which went on to become Communications Alliance, I found the Comms Day team were keen to include an industry voice on issues they were covering

and their coverage was always comprehensive and balanced. As we moved into the Comms Alliance era, we formed a partnership with Comms Day in the awarding of the new ACOMMS Awards for Industry Excellence as part of the new annual Comms Alliance Dinner. The ACOMMS were a statement of the maturity of the telecommunications industry and the importance of calling out significant contributions. That partnership never impacted the journalistic ethics of Comms Day and my views on behalf of Comms Alliance were reported and represented with the integrity the journalists have always shown. Some of my fondest moments of the ACOMMS are as a copresenter barrel-girl with Tim Marshall in his striking mustard suit, and the 'David and Margaret' video that Grahame and I would make in commenting on the award winners. The Comms Day Summits which Grahame established in the 2000s were feisty conversations on industry issues. Established at the time when Telstra was led by its American executives, when there was much industry disputation around competitive issues and structural separation, and significantly a lot of focus on what the broadband 'next generation network' would look like, these forums were a lightning rod for the 'hot issues'. I was fortunate to have chaired a number of the Summits and also to have been a keynote speaker and panellist at many of them. I well remember one forum when I, as the advocate for increasing industry collaboration as the positive way forward, was on a panel with Phil Burgess from Telstra on one side of me and Paul Fletcher from Optus on the other side. It was at the time when Telstra had raised the ire of Optus and the eyebrows of many with its 'leech' campaign. In a particularly energetic exchange between the two 37

of them, Paul noted that if Telstra refrained from called Optus 'a foreign leech' it would be a good move forward. To which Phil replied that 'I did not call you a foreign leech, I simply called you a leech'. It was kind of reflective of the tensions in the industry at the time, ably facilitated by Grahame as MC of the session. What I've covered off here are events over and above the daily publication of the Communications Bible. I am sure others will also attest, as do I, to the unwavering high journalistic quality of Comms Day over 20 years, and the insightful and challenging 'without fear or favour' editorials of Grahame. The quality of the publication of course is down to the team. With apologies to any I don't name or don't know, for me these are the journalists who have gone on to other things such as Natalie, Tim and Luke Coleman, the current journalists Petroc Wilton and Geoff Long, and the support team including the wonderful Sally. And then there's Grahame, whose energy in continuing the Comms Day quality in combination with his musical and other life interests is nothing short of astounding. Happy 20th Birthday!

Trevor Hill

GM consumer and compliance (regulatory), Telstra What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? For me personally it is being part of the constant state of change. At Telstra we’ve gone from being a public service organisation with a state based structure to a fully privatised company with a strong customer focus and a global outlook. We’ve transformed our product suite from offering voiceonly fixed line products to a full range of telecommunications

products and services which are available online.

Comment on Comms Day: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? Comms Day has always been a great read and it now sets the agenda on a large number of issues. It’s one of the first things I read every morning. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? Over the next 20 years I think video calls will be the norm, education will be delivered on an individual basis – your communication device will become the classroom – and telecommunications service delivery will have merged with those in health and transport.

Mike Wright

GMD networks, Telstra What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? The strategic decision and then the build of the NextG network in 2006. Having been involved with wireless much of my career until then and having been involved with engineering the CDMA network and the complexities of the AMPS shut down no-one knew what we were biting off more than me. It seemed that every bit of engineering I had learned in all of my career had to be put to work in one go, from base station design, handset and antenna performance, coverage sensitivity, base station power, spectrum, device availability, you name it - and all 5112 sites built in just 10 months. If you are lucky, you get to do one ‘NextG’ in your career.

Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like?

Because it is usually written by people who understand what they are writing about. Like the industry insights. Don’t like when it just quotes the press release.

What I like about CommsDay is that it provides timely, reliable and industry focussed information in my inbox each morning. I like the clear separation of opinion from reporting. I would like to see more opinion pieces. Also sometimes I feel only one side of an issue presented, but that is probably a consequence of short time frames and limited resources.

Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? Despite many premature obituaries, the network will still be there. It will be programmable and dynamic and cloud will move from being “on the network” to “in the network” to enable any function, anywhere and to optimise efficiency, reliability, latency.

Stuart Lee Group executive, Telstra Wholesale

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? The sheer scale of change. In 1994, we were in a voice world. Our industry was a fixed carrier duopoly, digital mobiles were in their infancy, the HFC network was just being rolled out and there was no ADSL or cable internet. The web was more an idea than a reality for most people and Steve Jobs had not even returned to Apple yet. Today, the shift to data dominating our industry is almost complete. Demand for data is driving investment in our local network and international transmission. Our industry has moved from ‘fixed voice services delivered to a location’ to ‘customers accessing the services they want over data and voice wherever they are’. This has had profound consequences not just for the telco industry but for many parts of the economy. 38

Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? Globally I think it will be the opportunities that will come as the developing world gains access to the internet and the digital economy. In Australia, it will be how improving computing power and communications technologies, including mobiles and the cloud, continue to transform industries and people’s lives.

Bill Barney

CEO, Global Cloud Xchange What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? Over the past 20 years, the internet has brought profound changes to people’s lives. Not only has the internet been a driving force behind the development of India and China, two of the world’s fastest growing economies, what was once referred to as the ‘Information Superhighway,’ has evolved into a world of real-time communications and mobility we can no longer live without. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like?

CommsDay has played an important role in documenting perhaps the most interesting 20 years of telecom history across Asia Pacific. From market liberalization to technology development, our industry played a mission-critical role in navigating the economic growth of this region and CommsDay was there to cover it. Congratulations on CommsDayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 20th anniversary! Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? In the next 20 years, our industry must continue to embrace change. As the world experiences digital and mobile transformation, with more information available more quickly in more mediums than ever before, we need to be a step ahead in facilitating solutions for companies whose capacity requirements could explode exponentially year over year. Capturing the enterprise through cloud is not enough, we must tailor solutions and platforms in an ecosystem which enables businesses to further embrace the cloud.

Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? I like CommsDay for 3 principal reasons. Firstly, although predominantly Australian news, it has significant relevant regional content that few dailies have; secondly it just does not just regurgitate press releases but rather analyses them, raising the level of substance; thirdly it has some very informative opinion pieces and penetrating letters to complement the news articles.

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? Being involved in the submarine cable segment of the telecoms industry, the most important thing in the last 20 years to my mind has been firstly the development of the all-optical amplifier and the consequential simplicity and attractive economics of upgrading the capacity of cable systems. Together they have removed the need for cable retirements on capacity grounds, enabling vastly reduced cost of international connectivity.

Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? My crystal ball is a bit hazy, I don't know the most important thing. But perhaps we'll see thought to text and eventually thought to 3D printing.

Nigel Stitt ANZ CEO, Pacnet

Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years?

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco?

Over the next 20 years, ecommerce will increasingly dominate trading around the globe, demanding better and broader highways of communications. Complemented by entertainment, this will see the share of countriesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; GDP spent on telecommunications increase steadily enhancing the wealth of the telecoms industry.

For me, the internet, enterprise IPVPN, as well as the rapid advancement of mobile technologies are the greatest developments in telecommunications over the past 20 years. Right now, converged voice and data network platforms and the growth of applications are driving the demand for cloud services and this is having a generational change on the telco sector.

Sharon Nakama CEO, PTC

John Hibbard

icated publication] for the issues and situations in Asia.

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? The most important and interesting thing in the last 20 years is the internet. What I like most about it is the efficiency and the accessibility. What I dislike most about it is the accessibility and the expected efficiency. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? I like that CommsDay is often the first publication to write the in depth articles. The most unfortunate situation is that CommsDay no longer [has a ded39

Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? CommsDay is informative, topical and a perfect source of news from our industry. It would be great if the title could reach a wider business audience which in turn would better inform and educate Australian management about new technologies and offerings to assist their organisations. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? The constant growth in mobility couple with the popularity of video and the demand it will place on bandwidth and storage models will impact the sector over the next 20 years. At the same time,

Software-defined Networking will continue to drive the use of bandwidth and networks for on demand models so that they can match the functions of cloud compute and XaaS models.

Paul Budde Analyst

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? My involvement in the development of the NBN and the fact that the notion of the importance of this project for the social and economic benefits of the country is gaining ground. We can argue about the technologies and how to best get there, the good thing is that this project is continuing and will deliver affordable highspeed broadband to all Australians. Obviously I am also proud to be the co-initiator and the adviser of the UN Broadband Commission. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don’t you like? It gives me daily a quick snapshot of all the important telecoms developments in the country. It gives me the security that I haven’t missed anything of importance. I like the good quality of the reporting and while I not always agree with some of the comments, I welcome the debates and discussions around those topics. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? The importance of telecoms as a standalone activity will slowly disappear and will become just one element – albeit an important one – of many products and ser-

vices. It will become totally integrated in many consumer products, healthcare activities, education, smart grids, smart cities, B2B., etc. Key elements that will shape telecoms in the future include: M2M, cloud computing, data analytics, wearables and other devises such as smartphones.

Barry RobertsThomson Deputy chair and ex-MD, Hutchison; director, VHA

What’s been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? The introduction of GSM that allowed mobile technology to roam globally. This revolutionised communications. It has made the world a much smaller and more accessible place for people to work and travel. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it? What do you like? What don’t you like? CommsDay provides a daily window to what’s happening in telecommunications – the issues, the developments, the people. It’s a one-stop shop for anyone who wants to know what’s happening in our industry. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? In Australia, the most important thing for the telecommunications industry is true competition. It will be to the detriment of the industry if this isn’t allowed to happen – and quickly. Unless government gets serious about creating a more level commercial playing field, innovation and service will be held back. Ultimately, it will be the public which pays for this 40

lack of action and vision.

Dave Burstein Editor, DSL Prime

What’s been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? 20 years ago heck, 15 years agothere were under 10,000 consumer broadband lines in the world. Today, many of us can’t live without broadband. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? I read CommsDay regularly although I'm not Australian and am 12,000 miles away in New York. It has some of the best informed telecom reporting anywhere in the world. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? Damn good engineers, including Andrea Goldsmith of Stanford, tell me that wireless capacity can increase 50-100X in less than ten years. That's enough to take today's 5 gigabyte caps into 250500/gigabytes a month. That's enough to watch most families' monthly HD TV and do everything else anyone does on the net today. Will regulation be smart enough to make that happen? What will life (broadband) be like when we reach that capacity?

Nigel Dews

Ex-CEO, Vodafone Hutchison Australia What’s been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? The relationships I have built, both in Australia and overseas,

have been the most important things to me personally – many of which will last a life time. The most interesting thing was leading 3 Mobile through high growth, break-even and into profit, while at the same time bringing extraordinary value for Australian consumers and giving everyone a glimpse of what content-rich mobile phones of the future, with 3G and 4G would be like. We could see the future clearly, but somehow none of the services or devices could really deliver it fully until the iPhone appeared. I am often pleasantly surprised how many people still feel passionately about what we built and delivered. This was followed closely by being asked to lead the 50/50 merger of Vodafone and 3 Mobile and working to get the best out of both legacy businesses and cultures. There was a lot of learning in this – not all of it easy. Comment on Comms Day: why do you read it? What do you like? What don’t you like? In 20 years it’s gone from being an edgy gossip sheet to a mustread source of everything that is going on day-to-day in the telco world. Its timeliness is terrific and it is factually usually better than much of the main media. Its inability to see the wood from the trees is sometimes frustrating – but maybe that’s the trade-off for moving fast. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? The most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years will be to become truly data centric and customer friendly. The story of the next decade will be data ubiquity, and doing this in an intelligent, transparent and customer friendly way, across all devices and both fixed and wireless net-

works. Done right, telcos can add enormous value for network users. This will take significant investment and rely on different business models to the ones we see in the industry today, otherwise we may see telcos relegated to being the basic plumbing of communications with multilayered service providers doing all the value-added.

Michael Lee

of this reform, there was only one Telecom shopfront, where you could pay your bill or exchange your fixed line handset for another one as long as it was black, grey or beige! Today every shopping centre has numerous competing Telco retail outlets, not just creating new jobs, but offering consumers and business a wide range of products and services at competitive prices. Throughout these twenty years of rapid and accelerating change, CommsDay has played a crucial role in informing, alerting and educating many of us, right from the start. As the communications industry grows and plays an even more influential role in Australian society, I am sure CommsDay will continue to play a key role in promoting a deeper understanding of the key opportunities and challenges we face.

Australian communications minister 1993-1996; chair, Communications Alliance Like a salmon swims back up the river where is was spawned, I love to return to Perisher, the place I learned to ski. On one such trip recently, I passed the place where a Telecom public phone had been my only way to reach my office in the eighties. After 1992 I could call on my Telecom Motorola flip phone. Today people call, text, download photos, upload videos, keep in touch with breaking news, operate their bank accounts and even buy a ski day passes with their phone. Twenty years ago, I had the privilege of being appointed Communications Minister as the Telecom monopoly was ending, thanks to Paul Keating. Within a few years, Australia moved from the Telecom monopoly, to the Telstra/Optus duopoly to open competition in 1997. In my own local area on the NSW Central Coast, at the start 41

Bob Horton

Ex-technical regulation GM and member, AUSTEL; ex-deputy and acting chair, ACA Twenty years comes and goes in the blink of an eye. It gives us cause to muse over what it was all about and if we individually made a difference, or simply took the money and ran. In the absence of a reliable, persistent and timely chronicler of the life and times of the telecommunications industry, such as we have had from CommsDay a record of much of the developments might

have slipped away unseen or unheard at the time by the broader eyes and ears of the industry – and from our memories. But the efforts of CommsDay have gone beyond a factual record of events and decisions, to cover analysis which has often rated second to none in journalistic value. In latter years the emergence of Conferences and Summits etc. under the same brand has distinctively filled a need for the industry to physically come together at regular intervals to exchange information, debate and share values which have been chosen cleverly and have been topical. If there is a single word which captures the changes we have seen through this period, it would be liberalisation, and its inexorable progress. At the beginning of the 90s the scene had been set by creating an independent regulator, AUSTEL, which took over the regulatory functions of the previous monopolist Telecom Australia and the foundations were laid for network and terminals competition with fixed and mobile networks. At that time, infrastructure was regarded as the pressing competitive need. AUSTEL heralded in the new challenges of competition policy, significantly through arbitration and independent technical regulation for a competitive market place. During the same era, its cousin the SMA took over the role of radiocommunications regulation from the Department, and before that Telecom Australia (after vesting day in 1975). Thus at the time, there was much to convey to the outside world on the changes which were under way, and CommsDay arrived in good time to act as a chanticleer. In an institutional sense, in 1997 administrative oversight of competition broke away from an industry specific mould, following the outcomes of the Hilmer Inquiry and with the role of competition going to the ACCC. The ACCC had much to digest with

the telecommunications industry especially with a lively customer in Telstra. At the same time, the new regulator, the ACA was created with a strong technical bias in licensing, standards and spectrum management by the amalgamation of the residual of AUSTEL and the SMA. Both organisations brought with them the international role of interfacing with the ITU and regional body, the APT in the areas of telecommunication standardisation and spectrum management. Responsibility for consumer matters were shared with the ACCC. As well as life in this new regulatory structure, CommsDay, to its credit, also took up the daunting challenge and reporting of the sometimes mysterious activity of the ITU and to make sense of the international outcomes and their meaning for Australia. Fast forwarding to the current era, in 2005 the ACMA was created through an amalgamation of the ACA and the ABA, in recognition of convergence and consolidation of regulatory resources. This time, it was the ACA which had to digest a new function and a cultural shift – or maybe it was the other way around, being an equal partnership? A major shift in international thinking has taken up service provider competition as the prime motivater rather than infrastructure competition (with new terms of OTT, Cloud, a dominance of IP networks etc). Again, CommsDay was up to the challenge and mastered an understanding of the communication needs in keeping all and sundry abreast of issues and developments. Conferences have long been the life blood of interactive exchanges within the industry. At the beginning of time, the IREE held biennial Conventions (IREECONs) of a technical nature for the radio and telecommunications industry and attended by up to 1000 delegates from 43

across the broad spectrum of academia to commercial players filling the Exhibition Buildings in Melbourne. With up to five streams of simultaneous presentations, a platform was available to tertiary researchers in particular. This latter was a hallmark of the monopoly era, since sadly lost to commercial needs with the passage of time. More commercial enterprises stepped in to the arena in the early 90s and the emergence of the lobbying body ATUG then fulfilled the needs of industry with its annual ATUG Conference which was much appreciated and looked forward to by the industry. Again life moved on with ATUG having largely achieved its aims on the competition and legislative front, the creation of ACIF and with it a stronger involvement of industry in self – regulation in telecommunications. Now the Communications Alliance provides a strong advocacy for the industry and the creation of codes and standards in telecommunications, whilst consumer matters are vigorously pursued by ACCAN in the footsteps of its predecessors. And stepping up to the mark with the vital function of regular Conferences and Symposia for the industry, CommsDay has enhanced its reputation for assisting in the journey we are engaged in, through its uncanny ability of nailing the right issues. Looking to the future, we are overdue for the “8-year itch” which has been a feature leading policy makers to change the structure of industry and the regulatory framework. Spectrum and its importance is now much more front and centre of the regulatory agenda and it may be time for the next degree of liberalisation with industry playing a more key role in the future. In telecommunications, we are already seeing quite massive changes taking place in broadband communications and its implementation,

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whilst broadcasting is yet to see an increased scale of delivery by alternative means It is difficult to be definitive or have a clear idea of where all this is leading to, so I guess we will have to keep reading CommsDay!

Simon Hackett Founder, Internode; nonexecutive director, NBN Co

within a very complex policy and technical environment. In a more technically specific sense, I very much enjoyed the moment when I asked my team at Internode to throw the switch to turn on the first full-rate ADSL2+ services in Australia. Busting the monopoly telco principle of artificially constraining speeds (and thus consumer benefit) to artificially maximise profit was a distinct pleasure. This is a pleasure that I know Bevan Slattery and Steve Baxter also enjoyed by founding PIPE, where they did the very same monopoly-busting thing with the delivery of wholesale Dark Fibre access. Through their subsequent achievements with new companies and new endeavours in their lives ‘after PIPE’, I have even managed to forgive them for selling PIPE to TPG :)

What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco?

Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like?

Being a material part of a the birth of a genuinely new infrastructure in the modern industrialised era. I was born into a society blessed with essentially ubiquitous power, water, gas, sewage, and road networks. I happened to be the right age, in the right place, at the right time, and with the right aptitude, to have been a material part of creating a new form of national infrastructure in Australia, starting with AARNet Version 1. Looking back, that opportunity – to be a part of the start of the internet in Australia – was (in turn) a pivotal start to my own career, and one that has substantially shaped my life through its many consequences ever since . Those consequences extend up to and including my current role on the board of NBN Co, where I am working hard (and loving it) toward seeing NBN Co achieve the very best outcome possible

I read CommsDay because it is the barometer of the industry. More than that, it’s an industry information path that demonstrates two characteristics that are often rare in modern media reporting: trust and accuracy. I also like the fact that it’s not a free publication. In a word full of 'free' things that really aren't, charging money for providing a service remains the most fundamental and effective mechanism to create, and to maintain, a high quality outcome. It is not merely cut and paste journalism. In addition to insightful analysis, CommsDay provides a multi-lateral communication path, in plain sight, between key industry participants, key government participants, and key regulators and regulatory participants through which the industry operates. CommsDay has always been happy to publish the views of industry participants in the form of 44

a letter to the editor, and has always been unfailingly open to providing space for anyone who feels that they would like to exercise and express a right of reply. Consequently if you want to get a key message across, or if you want to put a thesis into the melting pot that you would wish that key government and regulatory players would read and consider then CommsDay is the place to put it. What I don't like? Really my only dislike is vendor advertising concurrent with CommsDay issues, because I just think the publication stands on its own so very well without it. The absence of any advertiser-driven agenda in CommsDay reporting is a key aspect of the high level of trust that it has built (and that it maintains). Advertising is, in my view, a slippery slope for a paid publication that I don’t want to see CommsDay pursue, because I just don’t think it needs to. I would be happy to pay more for CommsDay in order to see it operate with zero advertising. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? I think that in this next twenty years, we are in sight of achieving the goal of having extremely fast, effective, ubiquitous and reliable communications infrastructure in the hands of the overwhelming majority of the Australian population, and also in the hands of an increasingly significant proportion of the population of the world. With the achievement of that amazing, global, infrastructure effort, the looking glass will increasingly move 'up the stack', to the implications of all of this connectivity for humanity. Already, in the smartphone era, we are seeing the rise of new forms of addiction in the world addictions to being constantly entertained with small snippets of

globally sourced information to stave off the terrible perils of boredom from our lives. With that behavioural shift comes a set of behavioural challenges that every parent with children is beginning to wrestle with already. What sort of adults will these children become? The consequences of a truly global, ubiquitous communications network have been the realm of science fiction authors for some time. In the next 20 years I think that much of the world described in Neil Stephenson's seminal work, 'Snow Crash', will be real. For better and for worse. Just as was the case for the industrial revolution, I think that this future society will be better in net overall terms for its access to communications technology, but that it will also have created a whole new class of countervailing social, and sociological, problems as an unavoidable consequence.

quite like that. It needs a resident cartoonist. We have so many personalities and strange events, there’d have to be enough room for a cartoon or two. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? Privacy and control of personal data will continue to expand into more and more of an issue. As bandwidth increases, applications get more sophisticated, devices are implanted and the distinction between our online and ‘real’ lives gets more blurred, our digital personal data becomes our currency, our identity and the environment in which we live, work and play.

Definitely the convergence of bandwidth, processing power and mobility that smartphones have delivered my personal and working life: democratising access, information and the global economy. I’ve personally experienced that and enjoyed it. I also appreciate how that must also be true for everyone else on the planet and that inspires me. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? I like to keep abreast of what’s happening in our industry and related environment. CommsDay provides me with my industry gossip and moves and changes. I

Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? The way the industry will use a combination of high capacity fixed networks and wireless access networks to let customers have access to rich data services wherever they are and without even thinking about whether there is coverage – there just will be…

Tim Marshall

External affairs director, Alcatel -Lucent ANZ & Pacific Islands; ex-advisor to communications minister Stephen Conroy; exeditor, CommsDay What’s been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco?

Steve Dalby

Chief regulatory officer, iiNet What’s been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco?

of technology, regulatory and politics, sales and marketing, and business ups and downs.

Paul Fletcher

Parliamentary secretary to the minister for communications; ex-director corporate and regulatory affairs, Optus What’s been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? The battle over fixed line broadband which kicked off in 2005: I got so interested I wrote a book about it! Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? A crisp summary of what’s happening in telco, with a good mix 45

I’m tempted to say something about the economic centrality of our sector. Jeez, dotcom boom/ bust proved that, right? But really, there is today a genuinely formed view that telecommunications and all of its associated innovation and assets do actually underpin everything else that makes the economy work. That’s a good thing. But I’ll settle on the rise of the customer. In 1994, the customer was quite literally a phone number. In 1999, the customer was a fictional character supporting grand visions and half-baked plans. Through the 2000s the customer was a pawn in a debate about competition and industry structure, albeit also a beneficiary. Today the customer sits in the box seat, the focus of every industry CEO, whole industrial ecosystems and with more power in their handset than in an entire university computer room circa

1994. That really is a good thing and will be an important guide as our industry navigates all our future challenges. As an aside, I’d also like to give an honorary mention to the utter decimation of industry marketing and communications budgets, which seemed to miraculously disappear right about the time of my transition from industry journalist to industry public relations. What a letdown! Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? I won’t be the first or the last to credit Communications Day for its disciplined subscriber model over 20 years. I’m not sure there are still fax subscribers, but I kind of hope there are. I remember as a young journalist proposing a CommsDay website and WAP service to Grahame Lynch. He heard the plan and started putting photos in the PDFs instead. I can’t say that helped me explain

in the pub why my job was so cool, but I think the business instinct was sound. I don’t think everyone agrees with Grahame all the time and I think that’s a good thing. CommsDay has always played a role as a debate forum and having a strong leading view has been important for that to work. The result is a real community formed around solid journalism and curated events that mark the industry calendar. Last week I pitched an Android app to Grahame and Petroc Wilton. They told me they were very busy. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years? Data, data, data. Oh, and network investment.

Kevin Morgan Telecoms consultant; columnist, CommsDay

In 1994 the Beazley era reforms had been bedded down. Optus had entered the market as a full service competitor, Vodafone was building its GSM network and the Australian and Overseas Telecommunications Corporation had morphed into the more market focussed Telstra under the leadership of former AT&T executive Frank Blount. The groundwork was also being laid for full market liberalisation under a blueprint that the coalition finally enacted in 1997. Today the collective wisdom in the industry is that the 1991 reforms failed and were a missed opportunity to create a truly competitive market by structurally separating Telecom. But that view discounts the industry’s massive achievements in the 1990s which were encouraged by and large through a co-operative spirit in the industry. Today that co-operative spirit, fostered through bodies like the Australian Telecommunications

Users Group, has dissolved into the polarised positions of industry players and more disturbingly into political rancour. Disagreement between the major parties over the NBN has ended the 30 year bi-partisan policy of encouraging competition and getting the government out of the sector. True there were mistakes early in the piece. Telstra should never have been allowed to build an HFC network. That decision has had an enduring impact on the structure and competitiveness of the Australian broadband market and perhaps we should have endured with an industry specific regulator. But the achievements were significant, not least that the former monopoly, which had over 90,000 employees in the early 1990s, halved its workforce without disputes or disruption. That process was managed, three world class mobile networks were built, Telstra digitised its switching and transmission networks and competition became established as much as it could in an industry marked by such strong natural monopoly characteristics. Above all consumers got choice and a better deal. All those achievements have over recent years been talked down as the former government sought to bolster its case for the NBN, a plan that was met with largely uncritical acclaim by the industry, even from Telstra once the price was right! In the unbridled enthusiasm for the NBN, CommsDay has stood as a counterpoint offering views and understandings that otherwise would not have been heard. Importantly through its conferences and gatherings, it has

brought the industry together in a way not seen since the heyday of ATUG. Protagonists, especially in the NBN debate, have seen that the other side doesn’t necessarily have horns and understanding, if not agreement, has been fostered. Telecoms is marked by big money, big technology and big politics. Though as a regular contributor I might be biased CommsDay has offered insights into all three with balance. One can only look forward to another twenty years from Grahame and his team – they are now an indispensable part of our industry landscape.

ly fortunate to have been working in the industry at this crucial moment in time and having a place at the table for some of the more interesting debates. Comment on CommsDay: why do you read it, what do you like, what don't you like? CommsDay is one of the first things I look at each morning. As an old-fashioned newspaper-trained journalist, I admire how the team comes up with an interesting read each day and stays true what some might regard as old-fashioned principles in reporting. Things like respect for balance and accuracy. It’s an incredible achievement to have survived for 20 years and hold the respect of the majority of people in the industry. Take a look into your crystal ball: what do you think will be the most important thing for telecoms in the next 20 years?

Rod Bruem

Corporate affairs manager NSW, Telstra What's been the most interesting or important thing for you personally in the last 20 years of telco? Without a doubt the most interesting thing is the universal availability of communications thanks to the arrival of the internet and mobile devices. It’s the biggest thing to happen in communications probably since the advent of the printing press. I feel extreme-

Having been in the telco business for 15 of those 20 years I know that crystal ball gazing is fraught with danger. What I really look forward to is when communications systems take over the operation of cars on our roads. This will stop slow coaches hogging the right lane and save billions in new road construction. It can’t come quickly enough. I also look forward to the next generation of apps that can do multiple complex tasks. On a policy front, it’s good to start seeing more recognition of the need for companies investing in networks to be able to make a return on their investment.