Consilience: Issue IV by Consilience The Journal of Sustainable Development

ISSUE IV WINTER 2010

Consilience The Journal of Sustainable Development con.sil.i.ence (noun): The joining together of knowledge and information across disciplines to create a unified framework of understanding

http://www.consiliencejournal.org

EDITORIAL BOARD EXECUTIVE BOARD

Editors-in-Chief

Chikara Onda Monica Varman

Lead Senior Editors

Noe Kinet Vighnesh Subramanyan

Managing Editor Leigh Huffine

EDITORIAL

Senior Editors

David Berke Alex Boyce Phil Crone Grant Graziani Dennis Martin Semee Yoon

Junior Editors

Matt Capetola Victoria Diaz-Bonilla James Fleming Meagan Gamache Felipe Goncalves Madeleine Gondek-Brown Jeanie Kirk Kasey Koopmans Jodie Liu Francesca Overwater Kimberley Rubin Pierre Saddi Alexandra Sing

Managing Board

Leon Chang Andrea Gabriele Delphia Polle Katherine Schulman Barrie Segal

PEER REVIEW AND ADVISORY

Corresponding Board Richard Allen Jesse Antilla-Hughes Christian Auncion Nicholas Cain James Cocks Frank Cohn John Feighery Mike Halperin Solomon Hsiang Chandra Kiran JP Leous Gordon McCord Jonathon Pfeiffer Tim Rappold Philip Sanoh Bolivia Vega Hakim Williams Daniel Yeow Garrett Ziegler

Faculty Advisory Board Severine Autesserre Akeel Bilgrami Mamadou Diouf Samuel Moyn John Mutter Shahid Naeem Katharina Pistor Jeffrey Sachs Saskia Sassen Michael Schmidt Wolfram Schlenker

Journal Advisor Louise Rosen

CONTENTS Scholarly Articles Economic Restructuring and Poverty/Income Inequality in Latin America Justin R Bucciferro, University of Colorado at Boulder

Crude, Cash and Culture Change: The Huaorani of Amazonian Ecuador Caitlin Doughty, University of California – Santa Cruz Flora Lu, University of California – Santa Cruz Mark Sorensen, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

Energy Efficient Refurbishment of Old Listed Dwellings: The Case of Victorian Housing Stock Magdalini Makrodimitri, University of Cambridge

An Analysis of Economic Growth and Industrial Wastewater Pollution Relations in China Hong Yang, Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology Yuan Zhou, Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology Karim C. Abbaspour, Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology

Factors Affection Farmer’s Decisions on Fertilizer Use: A Case Study for the Chaobai Watershed in Northern China Yuan Zhou, Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology Hong Yang, Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology Hans-Joachim Mosler, Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology Karim C. Abbaspour,, Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology

Opinion Pieces Where Science Meets Politics – Controversy Surrounding the Relationship between Population Growth and Climate Change Louise Carver, Institute of Development Studies

103

Must Biodiversity Hot-Spots Be Social Not-Spots? Win-Win Ecology as Sustainable Social Policy Charles Geisler, Cornell University

119

Rio Conventions Redux: An Argument for Merging the Trio into a Single Convention on Environmental Management Walker Young, Chulalongkorn University Bangkok

134

CONTENTS Field Notes Sustainability of Water Resources for the Poor James Patrick Abulencia, Manhattan College Susan Gallardo, De La Salle University Nithin Abraham, Manhattan College Anne Caraccio, Manhattan College Nicholas Ruffini, Manhattan College Kevin McDonnell, Manhattan College Francis Ta単ala, De La Salle University

155

Understanding Sustainability through Traditional Maasai Pastoral Systems in Southern Kenya Emma Impink, Barnard College Kaitlyn M. Gaynor, Barnard College

167

Photo Essays Goma: Centres for Internally Displaced Persons Katherine Fairfax Wright

181

Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, Iss. 1 (2010), Pp. 1–16

Economic Restructuring and Poverty/Income Inequality in Latin America Justin Bucciferro Department of Economics University of Colorado at Boulder Abstract This study uses an econometric approach to evaluate whether structural reforms in Latin America contributed to poverty and income inequality over the period from 1985 to 2000. Data on structural reforms is employed from the InterAmerican Development Bank‟s Structural Policy Index, and poverty and income inequality data is obtained from the World Bank‟s PovcalNet database. Using a panel data analysis with controls for GDP per-capita and political institutions, the overall openness level is found to be significantly positively related to the percent of the population living under the poverty line, the poverty gap, the Gini coefficient, the income ratio of the richest to poorest deciles of the population, and the mean log deviation. Specific reforms that are significantly positively related to poverty and/or inequality include privatizations and financial deregulation. Trade liberalization, average income, and democratic institutions demonstrate a negative, albeit weak, relationship to poverty and inequality. Author’s Note The author would like to thank Robert McNown, Joseph Jupille, the commentators at the Rocky Mountain Interdisciplinary History Conference (2006), and the reviewers for their suggestions. The author would also like to express gratitude to the Inter-American Development Bank for data and assistance.

1. Introduction In Latin America and the Caribbean (LA), countries adopted major structural reforms to their economies beginning in the 1980s and continuing through the 1990s. These actions were prompted by serious fiscal problems and encouraged by international scholars and policy-makers as a pathway towards prosperity. Unfortunately, output growth per-capita in LA during these two decades averaged 0.1% and 1.2% annually, compared with 2.4% and 3.3% during the 1960s and 1970s.1 Furthermore, from 1980 to 2000, the poverty rate increased from 40.5% to 42.5%,2 and income inequality expanded.3 Increasing frustration with the reforms led many to criticize this approach to growth. It remains to be answered: Did freemarket reforms contribute to higher poverty and income inequality in LA during this period? What were the impacts of specific reforms and what other factors should be considered in evaluating these relationships? Structural reforms, or structural adjustments, involve the liberalization of trade and finance, the rebalancing of the tax code, the privatization of state

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industries, and the deregulation of the labor market. Examples of these reforms include: the lowering of tariff and non-tariff barriers, the removal of restrictions to foreign direct investment (FDI), the adoption of variable exchange-rate mechanisms, the reduction of income taxes, and the implementation of flexible labor contracts.4 These reforms are expressions of neoliberalism: “the return to the rule of the market, the cutback of the state and of social policies, and the liberation of entrepreneurial energies.”5 This study employs an econometric approach to evaluate the relationship between three categories of structural reforms (trade, financial, and privatization) and five measures of poverty and income inequality (poverty rate, poverty gap, Gini index, income ratio of top and bottom deciles, and mean log deviation) in LA over the period from 1985 to 2000. The model controls for average income and political institutions, factors that have been shown to affect the extent of poverty and inequality. Special attention is given to data quality and econometric problems that have limited previous studies on this topic. The results suggest that privatizations increased poverty and income inequality and that financial deregulation expanded income inequality in LA during this period. In contrast, trade liberalization may have reduced poverty. Countries with higher average incomes and more democratic institutions experienced less poverty and income inequality. LA is a region that aggressively pursued structural reforms during the 1980s and 1990s, yet growth moderated and poverty and income inequality grew during this period. The experience of LA contrasts sharply with that of South and East Asia, where poverty decreased from 51.5% to 31.3% and 57.7% to 14.9%, respectively.6 In response to popular opposition to the reforms, LA governments are reviewing their approaches to development. A more conclusive understanding of the connection between reforms and poverty and inequality is therefore needed. This study seeks to add to the discussion by analyzing the most complete data for the period, using a model with both economic and political variables, and applying a large range of econometric tests. The results underscore the need for a more equitable approach to economic growth.

2. Structural Reforms and Their Consequences The three categories of structural reforms that may have the strongest relationship to poverty and income inequality (henceforth „inequality‟) are trade and financial deregulation, and privatizations. Financial liberalization means the lowering of reserve requirements (% of deposits banks cannot loan out), as well as the removal of interest-rate ceilings, barriers to entry into the financial sector, and other capital controls. The intent of these reforms was to expand the availability of consumer and business financing and attract foreign capital.7 More FDI and fewer restrictions on capital should improve financing for infrastructure projects, businesses, and consumers – all of which contribute to economic growth and, by extension, lower poverty. On the other hand, the free movement of capital across national borders makes countries vulnerable to a dangerous scenario in which negative signals trigger an exodus of capital. A „sudden stop‟ of capital inflows

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Bucciferro: Economic Restructuring

contributed to the devastating economic crisis that hit Argentina in 2000: over a period of three years, the poverty rate increased by 20%.8 Free trade would be expected to improve the welfare of society by allowing countries to specialize in the production of goods in which they have a competitive advantage. Consumers benefit when costly domestic goods are replaced by cheaper imports, thereby raising real incomes and lowering poverty. However, the elimination of trade and tariff barriers exposes domestic industries to increased competition and, hence, short-term unemployment and depressed wages while the economy adjusts to the new environment.9 Modern theories of trade taking into account capital mobility through FDI can also explain increasing inequality. When corporations set up operations in a developing country, they have strong demand for skilled workers who are in short supply. This leads to a skill premium and can account for an increase in inequality. It follows that the benefits of trade are unequally distributed and can create poverty and inequality even while the average income is rising. Privatization involves the sale of state enterprises. Following privatization, workforces are usually downsized to improve efficiency.10 This eventually translates into greater output if workers can find other jobs; however, the immediate effect is more unemployment, poverty, and inequality. Furthermore, there is the potential for corruption in the privatization process when public assets are sold to private consortiums at liquidation prices. Salazar and Pinto explain that, in Chile, the reduction of public employees from 308,000 in 1973 to 130,000 in 1982 helped push the unemployment rate to over 25% by the end of that period.11 Furthermore, by 1979, ownership of 70% of traded companies was concentrated into the hands of only ten conglomerates.

3. Empirical Evidence There is little empirical evidence regarding the impact of these and other reforms on poverty and inequality. The majority of papers on structural reforms only evaluate their impact on economic growth. This literature will not be discussed here, but it is worth mentioning that the meta-analysis of Correa indicates that none of the reforms he analyzes has a robust positive relation to growth in LA.12 The literature that directly evaluates the link between reforms and poverty/inequality in LA includes some recent country studies {Loayza, 2008 (Peru); LeClech, 2007 (Argentina); Moncayo and Garza, 2006 (Colombia); and Spatz, 2006 (Bolivia)} and a computable generalized equilibrium (CGE) model for all LA.13 The results of the country studies are contradictory and hard to generalize. The major fallback of CGE models is that the results are sensitive to how the reforms are assumed to travel through the economy. Szekely, Edwards, and Easterly pursue more straightforward statistical tests. Szekely employs a database of 94 household surveys covering 17 LA countries over the period from 1977 to 2000. He also uses the Structural Policy Index (SPI) of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) to evaluate the link between structural

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reforms and poverty and inequality. The SPI is widely-used in evaluating the growth implications of structural reforms, including the meta-analysis mentioned above. The SPI is the average of five sub-indices: trade, finance, tax, privatization, and labor. Each sub-index is the average of several policy measures, normalized relative to their highest and lowest values. Szekely utilizes the trade and financial indices and the average of the other three indices over the period from 1970 to 1995 with a four-year lag. The estimation strategy involves a pooling model which, by combining observations across countries and years, gives Szekely 75 observations on the reforms and measures of poverty/inequality including: the percentage of people living under $2 a day, the poverty gap (the average distance below the poverty line), and the log income ratio of the richest to poorest deciles. Using ordinary leastsquares (OLS) estimation (fitting a line to the data by minimizing the squared deviations of each observation) and standard significance tests, he concludes that “…except for financial sector reform, the economic reforms of the last two decades have not contributed to increased poverty and inequality.”14 Edwards asks whether more open countries have greater inequality. He uses a World Bank (WB) dataset on income distribution that covers 77 countries. His inequality measures are the change in the average Gini coefficient between the 1970s and 1980s, and the decade-to-decade change in the poorest quintile‟s share of total income. The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality ranging from 0 (everyone has an equal income) to 1 (one person has all of the income). The openness indicators he uses include average tariffs, the WB index of outward orientation, Wolf‟s index of import outward orientation, and average black market premium. The WB index of outward orientation is a relatively subjective measure of whether a country is “open” or “closed.” Wolf‟s index identifies trade restrictions as deviations in production-factor trade intensity from their predicted values. Finally, the black market premium captures the extent of government intervention in the goods market. Using these multiple openness indicators, Edwards classifies LA countries as „reformers‟ or „non-reformers.‟ His estimation involves a simple OLS regression of the change in the inequality measures on the reformer dummy and other controls, including growth and inflation rates. Based on a final sample of 44 countries, Edwards concludes that there is no indication that trade liberalization is associated with increases in inequality.15 Easterly investigates how growth affects the poor in countries with many adjustment loans (loans contingent on structural reform) as opposed to countries with few adjustment loans, with less attention to the direct effect of the loans on poverty. The literature on the elasticity of poverty and inequality with respect to growth is interesting and will be returned to later. Nonetheless, Easterly‟s estimation strategy does permit the estimation of the marginal effect of structural adjustment loans on poverty.

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Bucciferro: Economic Restructuring

Like Edwards‟ study, this one is cross-sectional and covers all countries for which data are available (65 in this case). It spans the period from 1980 to 1998 and the structural reform indicator is the average number of new WB or International Monetary Fund adjustment loans per year. The poverty data is based on household surveys compiled by Ravallion and Chen in 1997. The measure used is the log rate of annual change in the percent of the population living below $2 a day. The results indicate that adjustment loans increase the average poverty rate; however, in countries with many loans, poverty rates are relatively higher during economic expansion and lower during contraction.16 These three studies provide some suggestive results about the relationship between structural reforms and poverty/inequality. Szekely concludes that financial reform over the period from 1970 to 1995 in LA was responsible for the higher poverty and inequality observed from 1974 to 1999. Edwards and Easterly evaluate the impact of the reforms on a global scale. Edwards was unable to find any relationship between trade reforms and inequality between the 1970s and 1980s. Easterly confirms that structural adjustment loans did not reduce poverty (they increased it) over the period from 1980 to 1998. These results are interesting but not conclusive and only Szekely‟s results are specific to LA. Two major limitations of the research on this subject are the absence of data and the imprecision of the structural reform measures. Poverty and inequality data are derived from a common base of household surveys that covers only 25% of potential country-year observations. By stacking the data for LA, Szekely has a total of 75 observations out of potentially about 400. Edwards avoids the mismatch of poverty-inequality and reform data by using the percentage change in the average of each variable by decade, leaving only 44 observations across all countries. Easterly has a panel covering all countries across 19 years with only 126 observations (out of potentially thousands). The measures of structural reforms vary considerably. The SPI – a scale of openness based on multiple policy measures – is more precise than the reformer/non-reformer dummy of Edwards or the loan-count of Easterly. Given the small sample sizes and unlike reform measures, the inability to find a significant relationship doesn‟t mean there isn‟t one. This paper will take an econometric approach closer to that of Szekely. It will employ the overall SPI and three sub-indices (financial, trade, privatizations) as the indicators of structural reforms. Other improvements include more complete poverty and inequality data and another five years of structural reform data (20% more observations overall). Furthermore, the model will control for variation in average income and political institutions, and will offer a range of tests that deal with major econometric problems. Over seven years have passed since those studies were completed. It will be useful to re-evaluate the previous findings and potentially identify some new relationships.

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4. Income, Institutions and Poverty/Inequality Determinants of poverty and inequality are so numerous that it is impossible to consider them all in any study. The theoretical literature suggests that two factors – average income and political institutions – have the greatest impact. Average income, measured by per-capita GDP (Gross Domestic Product), varies substantially across LA countries. In countries where the average person has a higher income, one would expect less poverty, all-else-equal. The average income tells us nothing about the distribution of that income, though. Now, consider the growth rate of average income. If average income grows, poverty should also decline as long as the poor enjoy a fraction of that growth. The growth rate does have direct implications for inequality. If all groups see the same percentage increase in income, for instance, inequality grows because the poor earn less. The link between the level of per-capita income and its growth rate with poverty and inequality has been quantified for LA over this period. Easterly estimates that the growth elasticity of poverty – the percentage change in poverty in response to a given percentage change in growth – is negative.17 This is confirmed by Szekely, who also finds a significant positive growth elasticity of inequality.18 In general, the literature holds that growth leads to less poverty, but not necessarily more inequality.19 The differential effects of average income and its growth rate must be considered when estimating the direct effect of the reforms on poverty or inequality. Political institutions are cited as the second most important factor explaining the extent of poverty and inequality. Democratic institutions correspond to greater spending on public goods; authoritarian institutions, on the contrary, encourage rentseeking behavior.20 LA has a history of unrepresentative and authoritarian governments that may have contributed to poverty and inequality. The fact that many military dictatorships were in power in LA at the same time that liberalization occurred is a coincidence that should not be overlooked. It is critical to consider whether structural reforms had an impact on poverty and inequality aside from that of the military regimes.

Data The connection between structural reforms and poverty/inequality in LA will be evaluated using a sample of 19 countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, and Venezuela) during the period from 1985-2000. The data on poverty and inequality was obtained from the PovcalNet database created by the WB Development Research Group.21 The methodology employed is described by Chen and Ravallion. They combined new and existing

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% of Population under Poverty Line Poverty Gap Gini Coefficient Income Ratio: Top To Bottom Deciles Mean Log Deviation Overall Openness Level (SPI) Financial Openness Trade Openness Privatization Index POLITY Ranking Per-Capita PPP GDP ($) GDP Growth (Annual %)

Bucciferro: Economic Restructuring Table I. Descriptive Statistics† Latin America Number of Latin America Number of (Survey Year) Observations (Reference Year) Observations 11.0 11.1 97 84 (11.0) (11.7) 4.1 4.3 97 84 (5.0) (5.3) 51.1 50.1 97 84 (6.7) (6.3) 38.4 37.4 97 84 (6.5) (6.0) 0.49 0.47 97 84 (0.14) (0.13) 0.48 0.47 262 89 (0.10) (0.10) 0.47 0.47 285 95 (0.22) (0.21) 0.77 0.77 265 91 (0.18) (0.17) 0.09 0.09 285 95 (0.16) (0.15) 6.7 6.7 285 95 (3.6) (3.5) 4,696 4,696 285 95 (2,345) (2,335) 3.1 3.1 283 95 (3.9) (2.6) †Standard deviations are in parentheses.

survey data and recalculated all of the poverty and inequality measures using consistent criteria. The authors are critical of research that relies on multiple sources of data and state that the WB data are consistent and reliable back to 1981.22 The poverty and inequality indicators which will be used here are the “percent of population living in households with consumption or income per person below the poverty line,” the poverty gap, the Gini index, the log income ratio of the richest to poorest deciles of the population, and the mean log deviation (the average difference between the log average income and log individual income). The measures of structural reforms will be the overall SPI and three subindices (trade, financial, and privatizations). Each index ranges from zero to one: the closer to one, the more “open” the country. Data on per-capita purchasing-powerparity (PPP) GDP (in constant 2000 U$D) and the growth rate of GDP were obtained from the WB.23 The PPP adjustment accounts for the ability to purchase goods and services and not just income. The type of political regime is represented by the POLITY index (Version IV), which is equal to the difference between the sub-indices institutionalized democracy and autocracy. It is coded annually based on multiple rankings that capture the extent of political constraints and competitive participation. Its values range from +10 (strongly democratic) to -10 (strongly autocratic). The descriptive statistics are shown in Table I.

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% of Population in Extreme Poverty

Figure I. Openness and Poverty in Latin America*

NIC

GUA

HON SAL

20 BOL ECU

PAR BRA MEX

VEN

PER DR CR COL URG

0 .4

JAM

CHI TRI

ARG

.45

.5 Structural Policy Index

.55

*The dashed line shows the fitted values.

The statistics in the first column of Table I are for all annual data and in the third column, for the data when observations are averaged across five reference periods (1986-1988, 1989-1991, 1992-1994, 1995-1997, and 1998-2000). The reference-year grouping is appropriate because most countries only collected poverty/inequality data once every three years (very few observations are lost). The observations for the reforms, polity, and GDP are lagged one year to allow for a delayed effect on poverty/inequality. The number of observations in each case is presented in columns two and four. For the survey-year data, there are 19 cross-sections and 15 time periods (1985-1999), giving a maximum of 285 observations. For the referenceyear data, there are also 19 cross-sections but only five periods of time, a maximum of 95 observations. It is important to note that the poverty line Chen and Ravallion use to calculate the poverty rate is only $1.08 a day (in 1993 PPP). Very few people live below this level in developed countries but in LA, an average 11% of the population is in â&#x20AC;&#x17E;extreme poverty.â&#x20AC;&#x; The average poverty gap of 4.1 indicates that the average poor person is living on substantially less than $1 a day. The three inequality indicators reflect a wide disparity of wealth. With an average Gini coefficient of 51, LA is the most unequal region in the world. The means of the reform indices indicate relatively high levels of trade and financial openness, but a low degree of privatization. The political institutions are generally democratic (6.6 on a scale of -10 to +10) and the average income ($4,696) falls within the range of low- to middle income countries. The average growth rate of 3% seems high because it is not adjusted for population growth or changes in purchasing power. The scatterplot of the average SPI index on the average poverty rate for each country over this fifteen-year period is shown in Figure I.

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Bucciferro: Economic Restructuring

5. Estimation There are many econometric problems in estimating the relationship between economic reforms and poverty/inequality. For one, LA is very dependent on international factors, such as interest rates and export demand, that may cause poverty and inequality spells. Second, there is the risk of a spurious correlation – poverty/inequality and openness may be unrelated but still both increase over time through some unidentified process. Both of these issues will be addressed. With a pooling model (where one stacks the observations across countries and time periods) there are more degrees of freedom (more observations relative to parameters being estimated) and methods of dealing with these problems. Equation (1) is the basic model with a single intercept term β0. The i and t subscripts indicate the country and the time period, respectively. The variables are as follows: poverty or inequality indicator (POV/INEQ), financial (FIN), trade (TRD), and privatization (PRIV) reform components of the SPI, POLITY rankings (POL), and GDP per capita (GDP). (1)

POV/INEQit = β0 + β1FINit-1 + β2TRDit-1 + β3PRIVit-1 + β4POLit-1 + β5GDPit-1 + εit

Equation (1) will also be estimated with the overall SPI replacing the three subindices (FIN, TRD, PRIV). This is by no means a comprehensive set of controls, but given the relatively low number of observations and the high correlations between other macroeconomic measures (like inflation) mentioned in the literature, the model employs the available variation while introducing the least amount of bias. The theory discussed earlier suggests opposing effects of each reform on poverty and inequality. The best evidence indicates that only financial reform has a notable effect on inequality and, to a lesser extent, poverty. The net effect of trade should be a reduction in poverty but an increase in inequality. Privatization is thought to be positively related to both indicators, but there is little evidence so far. Finally, more democratic regimes and higher average incomes should be associated with less poverty. Some evidence suggests that democracy encourages equality, while faster growth creates inequality. In order to control for all time-invariant characteristics that differ between cross-sections, equation (1) may be estimated using fixed effects, in which a dummy variable is added for each country. Fixed-effects estimation captures the withingroup variation while controlling for everything else, including language, legal origin, racial composition, geography, climate, etc. A modified Wald-Test indicates that using fixed effects is a significant improvement to the model24. Given data limitations, it would be better to use a model of random effects and avoid estimating the coefficients on 19 dummy variables. The random effects estimator employs the variation within each country, but also between countries. It recognizes that the many factors not included in the model are correlated across

Consilience Table II. Regression Results - Survey Year - Poverty Indicators Poverty Line

Overall Openness Level (SPI)

*8.6

(6.8)

(3.7) 3.4

1.2

(4.3)

(2.3)

-0.9

-0.5

(4.2) **6.6

(2.3) *4.6

-0.39 (0.26)

(4.0) -0.41 (0.26)

-0.11 (0.14)

(2.2) -0.12 (0.14)

*-0.0017 (0.0005)

*-0.0015 (0.0006)

*-0.0008 (0.0003)

*-0.0007 (0.0003)

0.20 90

0.17 90

0.18 90

Trade Openness Privatization Openness POLITY Ranking Per-Capita PPP GDP R-squared Number of Observations â&#x20AC;

Poverty Gap

*15.6

Financial Openness

â&#x20AC;

Standard errors are in parentheses; *significant at 5% level, **significant at 10% level.

countries and accordingly, weighs the observations. The only way to use the random effects model is for the random effects to be uncorrelated with the explanatory variables. The Hausman test indicates that there are no significant biases due to unobserved heterogeneity, so the random effects model will be adopted.25 The results are presented in Tables II and III for the poverty and inequality measures, respectively. The results are generally robust when using OLS or fixed-effects estimation (not shown). The results in columns one and three of Table II show that the overall SPI, or level of openness, is positively related to poverty, as measured by extreme poverty or the poverty gap. The coefficients on POLITY and per-capita GDP are negative, as hypothesized, although only GDP is significant. The results in columns two and four show that privatizations are positively related to both poverty measures, but the coefficients on the other two reform indices are insignificant. The results are substantial as well as significant; a country that fully privatizes state industries would have 6.6% more people living in extreme poverty compared to a country that does no privatizations. The results in columns one, three, and five of Table III also suggest a positive relationship between overall openness and inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, the income ratio of top-to-bottom deciles, and the mean log deviation. Looking at columns two, four, and six, which estimate the model with three types of reforms, financial openness is positively related to all three measures of inequality. Also, privatizations are positively related to inequality measured by the mean log deviation of income. Across the six specifications, there is no apparent relationship between the political and average income variables and inequality.

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Bucciferro: Economic Restructuring Table III. Regression Results - Survey Year - Inequality Indicators GINI Index

Overall Openness Level (SPI)

Income Difference Between Top and Bottom Deciles

*12.9 (5.2)

Financial Openness

*11.9 (4.9) *6.4 (3.2)

Mean Log Deviation *0.37 (0.11)

*7.5 (3.0)

*0.14 (0.07)

Trade Openness

-1.8

-2.1

-0.04

Privatization Openness

(3.1) 3.4

(2.9) 1.9

(0.07) *0.13

POLITY Ranking Per-Capita PPP GDP R-squared Number of Observations â&#x20AC;

0.03

(3.0) 0.02

0.10

(2.8) 0.09

0.002

(0.06) 0.001

(0.20) -0.0002 (0.0004)

(0.20) -0.0003 (0.0004)

(0.19) -0.0003 (0.0004)

(0.18) -0.0004 (0.0004)

(0.004) -0.00001 (0.00001)

0.38 90

0.39 90

0.27 90

0.29 90

0.17 90

0.20 90

Standard errors are in parentheses; *significant at 5% level, **significant at 10% level.

One potential source of bias in the above estimates is autocorrelation (values of the variables in previous periods may be influencing their values in subsequent periods). To allow for this possibility, the model can be estimated with a correction for first-order autocorrelation. However, the lack of consecutive observations across periods in this sample prohibits the use of this process. To overcome this barrier, the data are organized according to the five reference years suggested by PovCal.Net: 1987, 1990, 1993, 1996, and 1999. The data for the other explanatory variables are averaged across the three preceding years to allow for a small lag in policy transmission. To use this correction, fixed effects estimation is required, but this is suitable since the fixed and random effects estimates donâ&#x20AC;&#x;t significantly differ. The major drawback is that the observations for the first period are dropped. The results for the estimation of equation (1) using fixed effects with an AR(1) correction are shown in Tables IV and V. Again, the results are also presented with the overall SPI in place of the three separate reform indices. In addition, these specifications include a control for GDP growth rates instead of percapita levels (this does not substantially change the results). Theory suggests that faster economic growth may decrease poverty but increase inequality; the impact of the level of per-capita income on poverty and inequality is more ambiguous.

Consilience Table IV. Regression Results - Reference Year - Poverty Indicators Poverty Line

Overall Openness Level (SPI)

â&#x20AC;

Poverty Gap

*23.7

*16.2

(8.8)

(6.5)

Financial Openness

-1.2 (3.7)

0.1 (2.1)

Trade Openness

-1.6 (4.5)

-2.6 (2.9)

Privatization Openness

*15.1 (3.3)

*10.4 (1.9)

POLITY Ranking GDP Growth Rate

0.23 (0.67) -0.22

-0.18 (0.43) -0.07

0.31 (0.30) **-0.19

0.01 (0.30) -0.01

AR(1)

(0.22) 0.20

(0.21) -0.09

(0.10) *0.48

(0.11) 0.07

R-squared Number of Observations

(0.15) 0.93 59

(0.15) 0.95 59

(0.15) 0.90 59

(0.18) 0.93 59

â&#x20AC;

Standard errors are in parentheses; *significant at 5% level, **significant at 10% level.

As with the random-effects model, the results from the fixed-effects model with the correction for autocorrelation in Table IV identifies a positive relationship between the overall level of openness and privatizations with both poverty indicators; indeed, the magnitude of the relationship is greater. The coefficients on GDP are still negative, but cease to be significant in some cases. Interestingly, by using GDP rates instead of levels, trade liberalization becomes significantly negatively related to both poverty indicators when using fixed effects without the AR term (not reported). Similarly, without the autoregressive process, democratic institutions are negatively related to poverty. The results for the inequality measures shown in Table V also strengthen the findings from the random-effects model. The SPI and financial openness are still positively related to all three measures of inequality, and the coefficient on SPI is larger. The new finding is that privatizations are also positively related to all three inequality indicators (the earlier result was limited to mean log deviation). Again, institutions and GDP do not reveal any significant connection with inequality. The results from the reference-year grouping with fixed-effects and a correction for autocorrelation confirm the results obtained from the previous panel. Specifically, financial reforms may cause inequality, and privatizations may lead to both greater poverty and inequality. The overall degree of policy openness, the SPI, is robustly connected with both increased poverty and inequality. Consistent with previous evidence, it appears that free trade is poverty-reducing. The evidence on the impact of higher average incomes and more democratic institutions is ambiguous; in some cases they seem to decrease poverty and inequality, but the analysis with the AR term indicates that these processes are path-dependent and not necessarily causally-related.

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Bucciferro: Economic Restructuring Table V. Regression Results - Reference Year - Inequality Indicators† Income Difference Between Top and Bottom Deciles

GINI Index Overall Openness Level (SPI)

*24.9 (6.5)

*20.0 (5.6)

Mean Log Deviation *0.67 0.17

Financial Openness

*6.6

*7.2

**0.13

Trade Openness

(3.2) -2.2

(3.0) -2.4

0.07 -0.07

(4.5) *8.3 (2.9)

(4.1) **5.1 (2.7)

0.10 *0.27 0.06

Privatization Openness POLITY Ranking

0.17 (0.51)

-0.04 (0.48)

0.29 (0.45)

0.04 (0.43)

0.005 (0.012)

0.0001 (0.0114)

GDP Growth Rate

-0.15 (0.17) 0.16

-0.07 (0.17) 0.09

-0.14 (0.16) 0.09

-0.09 (0.16) 0.04

-0.004 (0.004) *0.30

-0.001 (0.004) 0.15

(0.11)

(0.10)

(0.11)

(0.12)

0.91 59

0.92 59

0.91 59

0.92 59

0.90 59

0.92 59

AR(1) R-squared Number of Observations †

Standard errors are in parentheses; *significant at 5% level, **significant at 10% level.

6. Conclusion Previous studies that have evaluated the relationship between structural reforms and poverty or inequality were challenged by a lack of data and imprecise measures of reform. This study uses comprehensive indicators of structural policy and the most complete and consistent poverty and inequality data available. The model is simple but powerful because it controls for average income and institutions. In support of some results by Szekely and Easterly, yet contrary to those of Edwards, this paper finds that the Inter-American Development Bank‟s overall openness index is positively related to both poverty and inequality. Moreover, the financial openness sub-index is positively related to inequality, and the privatizations sub-index is positively related to both poverty and inequality. These results hold when using three different estimators, different controls, and a correction for autocorrelation. The results fail to discredit the argument that trade liberalization, average income, and democracy are negatively related to poverty and inequality. Debate is spirited in academic and political circles concerning the effects of recent neo-liberal policies, yet there is little empirical work that has resolved this question. This study seeks to fill that void and concludes that there is reason to be critical of globalization. Structural reforms, in general, and financial deregulation and privatization, in particular, were regressive policies. On the contrary, trade liberalization may have benefited the poor. This is not to say to say that the reforms should not have been made, only that they had some undesirable consequences in the short-term. Further work is needed to understand how economic growth and institutions interact to affect the poor. One thing is certain: a more equitable approach to development will likely characterize future reforms given Latin America‟s disappointing recent history.

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Endnotes 1

World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2003. Economic Commission on Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Social Panorama of Latin America, 2004. 3 Miguel Szekely, "The 1990s in Latin America: Another Decade of Persistent Inequality, but with Somewhat Lower Poverty," Journal of Applied Economics, 2003. 4 Jose A. Ocampo, "Latin America's Growth and Equity Frustrations during Structural Reforms," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004. 5 Ruben Zamora, “Foreword,” Free Trade and Economic Restructuring in Latin America: A NACLA Reader, New York: 1995. 6 Shaohua Chen and Martin Ravallion, “How Have the World‟s Poorest Fared since the Early 1980‟s?” World Bank Policy Research Working Papers 3341, 2004. 7 Lance Taylor, “External Liberalization, Economic Performance, and Distribution in Latin America and Elsewhere,” Inequality, Growth, and Poverty in an Era of Liberalization and Globalization, Oxford: 2004 8 ECLAC. 9 Wolfgang F. Stolper and Paul A. Samuelson, “Protection and Real Wages.” Review of Economic Studies, 1941. 10 S. Kikeri, “Privatization and Labor,” World Bank Technical Paper 396, 1998. 11 Gabriel Salazar and Julio Pinto, Historia Contemporánea de Chile, Vol. III. “La Economía: Mercados, Empresarios y Trabajadores,” Santiago: 2002. 12 Rafael Correa, "Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Latin America: A Sensitivity Analysis," CEPAL Review, 2002. 13 Enrique Ganuza, Samuel Morley, Valeria Pineiro, Sherman Robinson and Rob Vos, “Are Export Promotion and Trade Liberalization Good for Latin America‟s Poor?” Development Policy Review, 2005 14 Szekely, 2003. 15 Sebastian Edwards, “Trade Policy, Growth, and Income Distribution.” American Economic Review, 2001 16 William Easterly, “IMF and World Bank Structural Adjustment Programs and Poverty,” World Bank Working Papers, 2001. 17 Easterly, 2001. 18 Szekely, 2003. 19 Eduardo Lora and Ugo Panizza, “Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny,” Inter-American Development Bank, Working Paper 470, 2002. 20 Robert Deacon, “Public Good Provision under Dictatorship and Democracy,” Public Choice, 2009. 21 World Bank, PovcalNet, http://go.worldbank.org/NT2A1XUWP0. 22 Chen and Ravillion, 2004. 23 World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2003. 24 The modified Wald-Test allows one to test the null hypothesis that the intercepts for each country are the same based on the sum of squared residuals from regressions with and without this restriction. 2

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Bucciferro: Economic Restructuring

The Hausman test compares whether the fixed- and random-effects coefficient estimates differ significantly. For columns two and four in Table II, the ChiSquared statistics are 4.5 (p = 0.48) and 3.8 (p = 0.58). For columns two, four, and six in Table III, the test statistics are 3.7 (p = 0.59), 4.4 (p = 0.49), and 2.7 (p = 0.75). The tests for the estimations with the SPI similarly fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Bibliography Chen, Shaohua and Martin Ravallion. “How Have the World‟s Poorest Fared since the Early 1980‟s?” World Bank Policy Research Working Papers 3341, 2004. Correa, Rafael. "Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Latin America: A Sensitivity Analysis." CEPAL Review, 2002, 0 (76), pp. 87-104. Deacon, Robert. “Public Good Provision under Dictatorship and Democracy.” Public Choice, 2009, 139 (1-2), pp. 241-262. Easterly, William. “IMF and World Bank Structural Adjustment Programs and Poverty.” World Bank Working Papers, 2001. Economic Commission on Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Social Panorama of Latin America, 2004. Edwards, Sebastian. “Trade Policy, Growth, and Income Distribution.” American Economic Review, 2001, 87 (2), pp. 205-210. Ganuza, Enrique, Samuel Morley, Valeria Pineiro, Sherman Robinson and Rob Vos. “Are Export Promotion and Trade Liberalization Good for Latin America‟s Poor?” Development Policy Review, 2005, 23 (3), pp. 385-403. Kikeri, S. “Privatization and Labor.” World Bank Technical Paper 396, 1998. LeClech, Adrián. “Reformas Estructurales y Desempeño Económico en Argentina: 1976 – 2000.” Problemas del Desarrollo, 2007, 151. Loayza, Norman. “El Crecimiento Económico en el Perú.” Economía, 2008, 31 (61), pp. 9-25. Lora, Eduardo and Ugo Panizza. “Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny.” Inter-American Development Bank, Working Paper 470, 2002. Moncayo Jimenez, Edgard and Nestor Garza Puentes. “Neoliberalismo y Transformaciones Macrosectoriales de la Economía Colombiana, 19752000.” Economía y Desarrollo, 2006, 5 (2), pp. 133-172.

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Ocampo, Jose A. "Latin America's Growth and Equity Frustrations during Structural Reforms." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004, 18 (2), pp. 67-88. Salazar, Gabriel and Julio Pinto. Historia Contemporánea de Chile. Vol. III. “La Economía: Mercados, Empresarios y Trabajadores.” Santiago: 2002. Spatz, Julius. “Poverty and Inequality in the Era of Structural Reforms: The Case of Bolivia.” Kiel Studies. Vol. 336. Berlin: 2006, pp. 166. Stolper, Wolfgang F. and Paul A. Samuelson. “Protection and Real Wages.” Review of Economic Studies, 1941, 9, pp. 58-73. Szekely, Miguel. "The 1990s in Latin America: Another Decade of Persistent Inequality, but with Somewhat Lower Poverty." Journal of Applied Economics, 2003, 6 (2), pp. 317-339. Taylor, Lance. “External Liberalization, Economic Performance, and Distribution in Latin America and Elsewhere.” Inequality, Growth, and Poverty in an Era of Liberalization and Globalization. Oxford: 2004, pp. 166 - 196. World Bank. PovcalNet. http://go.worldbank.org/NT2A1XUWP0. World Bank. World Development Indicators, 2003. Zamora, Ruben. “Foreword.” Free Trade and Economic Restructuring in Latin America: A NACLA Reader. New York: 1995, pp. 7-13.

Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, Iss. 1 (2010), Pp. 18–32

Crude, Cash and Culture Change: The Huaorani of Amazonian Ecuador Caitlin Doughty Department of Environmental Studies University of California, Santa Cruz* Flora Lu Department of Latin American and Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz† Mark Sorensen Department of Anthropology University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Abstract In the Ecuadorian Amazon, the Huaorani are the indigenous group most recently assimilated into the country’s social, political, and economic order. With vast reserves of oil located under Huaorani land, this Native Amazonian population has quickly become integrated into national and international markets. The focus of this study is on one Huaorani community, Gareno, which is located along an oil road a few hours from the town of Tena, the capital of Napo Province. Community members were interviewed in order to better understand why they lived along the oil road and how they felt it impacted their daily lives. Responses showed that the residents have chosen to live and stay in Gareno specifically because of the health and education opportunities the road provides. The fact that they have chosen these benefits and economic opportunity over a pristine forest refutes the idea of the “noble savage,” which has been ingrained into Western society ever since Europeans first stepped on New World soil in the 15 th century. The image of the noble savage portrays indigenous people living in a so called “wilderness” as romanticized innocents in ecological harmony, isolated from the outside world, and uncorrupted by civilization. This view is inappropriate for groups like the Huaorani because it places them on an ecological pedestal and distorts their true condition. Rather than perpetuating this romanticized Western view of indigenous peoples, studies need to be conducted to better understand their contemporary challenges, responses, and opinions. As the people of Gareno look to further improve their quality of life through development, it is important to consider sustainable methods by which this can be completed as well as how national and international non-governmental organizations can facilitate such progress.

email: cdoughty@ucsc.edu email: floralu@ucsc.edu  email: msorensen@unc.edu * †

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Doughty et al.: Crude, Cash and Culture Change Acknowledgements

This research was funded by the National Science Foundation (grant to Flora Lu and Mark Sorensen, BCS-0822967), the UCSC Hammett Research Grant and the UCSC Terence Freitas Award. We thank Jeff Bury, Brian Frizzelle, Ana Oña, Kati Álvarez, David Chavez, Citlali Doljanin, Dayuma Albán, Cinda and Ted Doughty, and Murphy Smith. Most importantly, we express our gratitude to the Huaorani and Kichwa families who patiently and generously participated in this project.

Keywords: oil development, market involvement, Huaorani, Amazon, Ecuador

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1. Background Ecuador’s economic, political, and social structure dramatically changed in 1967 when a Texaco/Gulf consortium discovered huge oil reserves in “the Oriente,” the nation’s Amazon region. Within the oil industry there has been a major lack of responsible environmental regulation and financial accountability. While this has caused great environmental destruction and financial loss through direct oil spills, development has also increased.i Oil has brought the expansion of roads throughout the Oriente as well as colonists, mining, and logging.ii The concurrent destruction of the rainforest has had detrimental effects on the people who live there by devastating their resources.iii As the most recently assimilated indigenous group, the Huaorani have experienced dramatic changes to their way of life. The Huaorani, before contact, were a small group of roughly 500 hunter-gathererhorticulturalists.iv They were able to keep logging and oil exploration out of much of their territory for roughly 30 yearsv by violently attacking outsiders whenever they tried to penetrate their ancestral lands. Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, the Huaorani way of life changed drastically from one of constant movement and violence to a more peaceful, sedentary lifestyle. The territory that they had previously protected became much smaller with 80 percent of the population living in only 10 percent of their traditional lands.vi With this new lifestyle, the environment around the Huaorani was also affected. The Huaorani’s semi-nomadic patterns before missionary contact allowed for a great range of hunting locations that dispersed hunting pressure. The animals commonly hunted included spider and woolly monkeys, killed using blowguns, and peccaries and tapirs, which were killed with spears. However, with sedentarization and adoption of firearms, animal populations have become depleted around Huaorani communities, especially spider monkey populations. In addition, hunters now have easier access to a greater amount of forest as a result of oil roads, which ultimately increases their harvest.vii Conversely, with the decrease of hunting in some communities, people have become more dependent on food products from the market such as rice and sugar. The relationship between oil companies and the Huaorani has caused the Huaorani to expect these companies to provide services such as health and education. There is an imbalance seen across the Amazon between indigenous communities’ expectations of services and goods in return for access to their land, and what oil companies are willing to give.viii With the presence of oil, urbanization has markedly increased, as well as domestic violence, sexual abuse, and alcoholism (Rival 1993).ix It is important to note that different communities and people have varied views on the presence of oil in their territories. In addition, there is a varied range of interactions with the oil companies in different locations across Huaorani territory. The focus of this study is in a community, Gareno, located along an oil road in a concession until recently operated by the company Perenco.

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Doughty et al.: Crude, Cash and Culture Change

2. Study Population Gareno consists of approximately 16 households, totaling 93 people, and was founded approximately eight years ago. Many of the current residents moved to the village from deep in the rainforest, mainly from along the Shiripuno River. It is dominated by Huaorani individuals; however, there are two Kichwa families living there, and some of the Huaorani have intermarried with the Kichwa. Fifty percent of the population is under the age of 15, showing that the community is experiencing rapid population growth. The languages spoken in Gareno include huao tededo (the Huaorani language, a linguistic isolate) and Spanish. Of the 70 residents above the age of 12, roughly 83 percent speak both Spanish and huao tededo, 14 percent only speak Spanish and/or another indigenous language, and 3 percent only speak huao tededo (i.e. the oldest couple residing in the community). The sex ratio is approximately 50:50. A majority (68 percent) of the community over the age of 6 has some primary education, 24 percent of the community has some secondary education, 4 percent has attended technical school, and 4 percent has no formal education. Gareno is located along an oil road, and the residents are provided with weekly transportation to a market (formerly by the French company Perenco and currently by Petroamazonas, a subsidiary of the national oil company, Petroecuador) along the Napo River, locally referred to as the feria. Six of ten Gareno residents said that they buy food between once a week and once every two weeks. The majority of the men in Gareno (78 percent) have worked for petroleum companies, typically occupying multiple positions with different companies over the course of their lives. 9 percent have worked in ecotourism, and a few have had jobs in education, construction, or agriculture.

3. Methodology This paper draws from two periods of fieldwork: from October to November, data were collected as part of a National Science Foundation project co-led by the second and third authors. Methodologies included semi-structured interviews, anthropometric measurements, and time allocation and household economic diaries. Here we limit the discussion to some of the demographic census (used above to describe the study population), the World Health Organizationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Quality of Life survey, and semi-structured interviews. Demographic Census: A census was implemented with all 16 households in Gareno and 15 households in Quehueiri-ono ascertaining variables such as age, sex, education, residence, languages spoken, and religious affiliation. WHOQOL: The World Health Organizationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Quality of Life Survey (WHOQOL) was used to assess how people perceived their health. The numerical answers given in the WHOQOL were used in statistical analysis in order to determine statistical significance. 31 QOL interviews were taken in Quehueiri-ono, and 30 were conducted in Gareno.

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Semi-structured interviews: Three semi-structured interview protocols were implemented for both communities ascertaining economic, ecological, and demographic topics. To investigate household economics, interviews were conducted to ascertain wage labor history and participation in the market economy. Informants were asked about involvement in wage labor, sale of crops, sale of animals (both meat and live), and the making and sale of handicrafts. The interviews also dealt with resource use (i.e., hunting, fishing, and gathering). The ecological questionnaire asked about the following: dietary intake, hunting patterns and technologies, fishing methods and yields, foraging of timber and non-timber forest products and their use, agricultural production and labor, and conservation perceptions and threats. In Quehueiri-ono, about 15 questionnaires of each type were completed with household heads; in Gareno, 14 were completed. In mid-December 2009, the first and second authors returned to the community for about a week to conduct fieldwork for the first authorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s senior thesis, which forms the basis of the results described here. This latter visit used the following methods: Pile Sort: the pile sort method from cultural domain analysisx was used to assess informant perceptions of differences in animals, plants, weather patterns, and emotions between different settlements. Participants were asked to sort the cards with the location that they encountered more of these attributes: Gareno (their current community), their previous community, or equivalent. Five pile sorts were completed. Semi-structured interviews: five semi-structured interviews were conducted with adults asking residents about their decision to move from their previous village and their perceptions of flora, fauna, as well as weather differences between Gareno and their previous community. Participant observation: Finally, perhaps the most important source of data came from participant observation, the opportunity to just be present among the people of Gareno and partake in their daily lives (e.g., cooking meals, making crafts, traveling to market, or playing with children). In the findings, the pile sort data will be presented first, followed by the December interview data, then the participant observation, and finally the October through November interviews with the WHOQOL survey responses.

4. Findings 4.1 Pile Sorts The pile sort consisted of 60 cards with words in Spanish and huao tededo as well as some pictures depicting emotions, climate, flora, and fauna. Informants were shown a card and asked where they encountered or felt more of that organism, emotion or weather pattern: in their current community of Gareno, in their previous community,

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Doughty et al.: Crude, Cash and Culture Change

6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Gareno

Worried

Leadership

Stores

Friends

Quality of Education

Employment Opportunity

Quehueiri-ono & Huentaro

Buyers of Fish

Number of Responses

Figure 1 Opportunity and Emotion Category Pile Sort Results

Card Categories

or equal. The categories that had no clear directionality (i.e., those with less than 80 percent agreement) were left out of the results. In addition, the communities that had been previously inhabited, Quehueiri-Ono and Huentaro, were combined, since both are communities farther in the forest along the Shiripuno River. Figure 1 below shows the results of the opportunity and emotion categories. The results indicate that the residents of Gareno have more opportunities for employment, a higher quality of education, and a greater access to market activities than in their previous community. The road and transportation provided by the oil company increases the Gareno residentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; contact with these opportunities. At the same time, the residents of Gareno experience more anxiety. This can be attributed to the more challenging aspects that are connected to market integration such as the necessity for money and job security. In Figure 2, different animals are listed that are present in the region. Higher abundances of every species except for howler monkeys were reported in Quehueiriono/Huentaro than Gareno. In semi-structured interviews, 80 percent of respondents in Gareno answered that there are not large numbers of animals because of the noise, the road, and high human population density, all of which are partly the result of the presence of the oil industry. However, as Figure 1 shows, residents believe there are more economic and educational opportunities.

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Number of Responses Pa rr o t/C Cu we Pa rr r rass ot ow /T ay W ae oo m ly o M on ke y

Figure 2 Fauna Category Pile Sort Results 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Gareno Quehueiri-ono & Huentaro

Th Ta or pi ny r Ho C at wl f is er h M on k Ca ey py ba ra Sp Ja gu id er ar M on ke y

Equal

Card Category

4.2 December Interviews While in Gareno, five semi-structured interviews were conducted with a mother and community health promoter; the president of Gareno; a man who has a store in his home; another man in the community; and a Kichwa man in the community. Three themes that were discussed by all participants included (1) decision-making regarding settlement and mobility, (2) the presence of contamination, and (3) interactions with the feria. (1) Before coming to Gareno, we expected that people moved because of the oil company and their handouts. On the contrary, people came for various reasons. The female respondent said that the first people to come here moved because Perenco was giving food and supplies, but that is no longer the reason for the migration, as Perenco has stopped providing such benefits. Indeed, her family moved to Gareno because of social conflicts (e.g., infighting, theft) and the opportunity for her children to attend school. The other male Huaorani respondents echoed this desire for better educational opportunities in Gareno (including the proximity of a high school), but included other reasons as well, including ancestral ties to the land, proximity to the market, defense of territory, and presence of many family and friends. These answers show that living in Gareno did not merely stem from a desire to receive oil company handouts. People felt connected to their land and kin and shared a desire for better education. Even though many of the residents of Gareno did not move to the location because of the services provided, they eventually took advantage of the services after relocating. (2) Everyone agreed that there was contamination present in Gareno. Chlorine from the petroleum activities killed plant life and all of the fish and forced people to drink rainwater instead of the river water. The Kichwa resident said that the company contaminated the forest and air with noise and cars, causing a decrease in fish and animals. The storeowner related much the same thing when he asserted that there is nothing to hunt, leading him to buy manufactured food. He also said he missed

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Doughty et al.: Crude, Cash and Culture Change

BOX 1: Description of Huaorani Interactions at the Market On a Friday morning, market day, people excitedly waited along the road for the company-owned truck. A couple sat in the cab with the driver but the majority of people (numbering almost 30 people) stood on the flatbed, bracing themselves for the bumps during the roughly 45 minute trip. When we arrived at the feria, a Kichwa woman came up to the truck and asked for bushmeat from the Huaorani men, who did not have any. The people quickly dispersed to various stands mostly selling cheap products from China, such as aluminum pots and tennis shoes. One man sold fish from his truck from which emanated the putrid scent of old fish. The bars and restaurants consisted of wooden floors and open seating areas with a square window cut into a boarded room representing the kitchen. One side of the market was the Napo River while the other was trampled forest. There was a constant stream of new people as trucks and cars continued to drop people off at the end of the feria. The single dirt road surrounded by at least 25 stalls took only 3 minutes to walk from one end to the other. The oldest man from Gareno instantly goes to get a beer from the bar. He had made money earlier in the week by selling a blowgun to some tourists that passed his house. He stops passing cars in Gareno with his bamboo gate and demands payment or purchase for passage. Only once something is given will he lift his gate and let cars pass. His imposing demeanor, strong physique, distended earlobes, and reputation, stemming from a history of spearing attacks, encourages outsiders to give what he asks. Many of the men of Gareno frequent the feria precisely to drink alcohol, and they return home on the last truck in the late afternoon drunk and sometimes hostile. Saturday in Gareno is tense with men hung over and unpredictable. Women sometimes try to avoid being at home during this time and will go to be with their parents if possible. We also observed how the vendors treated the Huaorani. Everywhere we viewed transactions occurring, we saw the Huaorani disrespected as vendors spoke to them in depreciating tones prices also seemed very high, from $4 a gallon for gasoline in a country that extracts its own oil, to $5 for a few pounds of rice. The bartering tactic does not work at the feria, nor does walking away. We tried this at a shoe stall, and the vendor said that he could not reduce the price because President Correa was putting very high taxes on imported goods from China. This is to increase Ecuadorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s own manufacturing sector. Overall, the Huaorani were treated unfairly yet still looked forward to the feria and depended specifically on the fuel bought to run their stoves, generators, and outboard motors. food from the forest. Due to conflicts between Perenco and Ecuadorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s President, the company has withdrawn from this concession and PetroAmazonas (the state oil company) is taking over. Garenoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s president said that there are fewer cars and less noise now that Perenco has left, which is good for the plants and animals. However,

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he also declared that his manioc and plantains died due to contamination along with many fish. (3) With all of these contamination problems, the people of Gareno have still chosen to live in that location, but are increasingly reliant on the market. This is a continuation of the changes from their traditional culture that have been evolving since missionary contact in 1958. The interviewees said that with the departure of Perenco and the arrival of the state oil company, they no longer receive food and supplies, but transportation is still provided. The people of Gareno have adjusted to the reduction of food, services, and local game by increasing their consumption of purchased goods. Only time will tell how Gareno residents will fare if transportation to the market is no longer provided. At the feria, called San Pedro, people buy products such as rice, produce, sugar, pots, clothes, and fuel (for cooking as well as generators) and sometimes sell hunted game, handicrafts, and agricultural produce (although prices paid are considered low). The president of Gareno said that he likes the food from the feria, and that the feria provides a chance to talk with a variety of people. He does not, however, sell meat at the feria because he feels it is for the family and community to consume. One Huaorani resident has taken advantage of the feria by buying things there and then selling them in Gareno for a profit. In addition to discussing the feria in the interviews, we traveled there to observe the interactions occurring between the Huaorani and vendors (Box 1).

4.3 October-November Interview Data on Wage Labor Histories Figure 3 shows the percentages of jobs held by 12 men in Gareno. 12% The majority of the men in Gareno Petroleum have worked for petroleum 3% 2% Construction companies, occupying multiple 2% Agriculture 3% positions with different companies Professor over the course of their lives. For University example, Wepe, a man who lives in Ecotourism Gareno, has worked six wage labor jobs in his life so far, and all six 78% University indicates both the C atholic University and the jobs have been with petroleum University of San Francisco Quito companies including Perenco, Repsol, CGG, Grant, Petrochina, and Seiscomdelta. All of his positions were with drilling operations and working along the oil pipeline in activities such as digging the trenches and putting the tubes together. While this data does not indicate how the men felt about the various positions, it does show that petroleum related labor is the most common form of earning a wage. Figure 3 Wage Labor of Men in Gareno

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Doughty et al.: Crude, Cash and Culture Change

Table 1 Quality of Life Selected Questions with their P-Value and Significance Question P-Value Gareno Average QuehueiriOno Average 1: How would you rate your 0.0051* 3.33 3.97 quality of life? 5: How much do you enjoy life? 0.8833 3.44 3.48 6: To what extent do you feel 0.2226 3.83 3.42 your life to be meaningful 8: How safe do you feel in your 0.0437* 3.55 3.00 daily life? 9: How healthy is your physical 0.0176* 3.28 3.87 environment? 12: Have you enough money to 0.4649 2.00 2.16 meet your needs? 13. How available to you is the 0.0240* 2.68 3.48 information that you need in your day-to-day life? 14: To what extent do you have 0.3814 3.59 3.35 opportunity for leisure activities? 22: How satisfied are you with 0.0231* 2.72 3.42 the support you get from your friends? 23: How satisfied are you with 0.4289 3.78 3.58 the conditions of your living place? 24: How satisfied are you with 0.0111* 3.11 2.26 your access to health services? 25: How satisfied are you with 0.0311* 3.00 2.35 your transport? * indicates statistical significance at an alpha of 0.05.

4.4 WHOQOL One way in which we deduced how the people of Gareno felt about their lifestyle (as compared to Huaorani residents of Quehueiri-ono, a more remote village) was by implementing the World Health Organization’s Quality of Life Survey (WHOQOL). The survey was conducted during the NSF study. The WHOQOL survey asks questions ranging from physical pain to satisfaction with local services. Of the 26 questions asked, 12 were chosen as a focus for this study. The WHOQOL uses a Likert scale from one to five, with one representing “Very Poor” and five indicating “Very Good.” The questions and their corresponding probabilities are listed in Table 1 below. These questions were chosen for their relation to each community’s connection to place with regard to emotions and satisfaction. Of these responses, Gareno had a

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higher average for questions 6, 8, 14, 23, 24, and 25, which refer to themes such as satisfaction with infrastructure and services. Quehueiri-ono had a higher average for questions 1, 5, 9, 12, 13, and 22, which touch upon life satisfaction, environmental quality and social relationships. In Question 1, which ascertained the overall quality of life, the difference between Gareno and Quehueiri-ono was highly statistically significant with a probability of less than 1 percent. Quehueiri-ono is close to four, which indicates a good quality of life, whereas Gareno is closer to three, indicating neither poor nor good. This shows that Quehueiri-ono residents overall felt that they had a higher quality of life than Gareno residents. Furthermore, the results to Question 9 show that Gareno residents feel that their physical environment is less healthy than what the Quehueiri-ono residents feel about their environmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s health. However, questions 24 and 25 show that Gareno residents are more satisfied with the access to transport and health services than Quehueiri-ono residents. Both the semi-structured interviews and the results from the WHOQOL survey show that the residents of Gareno balance the positives and negatives of living in a damaged environment by benefiting from transportation and other services. Despite the challenges of living next to an oil road and leading a different type of life to previous communities, the responses to question 5 show that Gareno residents do enjoy the quality and kind of lifestyle they live.

4.5 October-November Interview Data on Perceptions of Development Questions about development, quality of life, and the advantages and disadvantages of the road were asked in the NSF study. To understand how the people in Gareno evaluated the changes in their lifestyle, they were asked what the word â&#x20AC;&#x153;developmentâ&#x20AC;? meant to them. Responses included statements that development was forward progress in education, health and the economy, growth in the population, more money and jobs, and the acquisition of more knowledge. There was also a general understanding that development is good, especially the money that it brings. With this understanding of development, changes in the community that would be considered development include greater access to higher education and health services, as indicated in the pile sort, as well as increased job availability due to the accessibility to oil industry positions. The people of Gareno are looking toward development in their community as something that will improve the quality of their lives rather than actions that will hurt their surrounding environment. During the interviews, they did mention disadvantages of development, namely problems associated with the road such as noise, alcoholism, and health issues. And when asked about what a good life meant to them, the consensus was that it was a life without problems. So while development is likely causing a lot of their existing difficulties they also see it as a solution to many of their existing problems.

5. Conclusion The people of Gareno have chosen to live in a community that runs along the oil road and have adapted their lives to fit what living next to an oil road requires. The

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Doughty et al.: Crude, Cash and Culture Change

community president said that the closeness to the market, medical care, and ease of transportation were the most important reasons why he lived in Gareno, a sentiment echoed by others in the pile sorts. However, in the pile sorts and interviews, community members noted the reduced environmental viability, especially hunting success, of the forest in Gareno. This is especially important since the Huaorani place a high cultural value on hunting.xi Apparently, the desire for consumer goods is just as powerful, and it has led some Huaorani to walk the narrow line between the traditional culture of generalized reciprocity and generosity versus making a profit. While the pile sorts and interviews demonstrated the advantages of being in Gareno such as health services and educational opportunities, observing the community showed the disadvantages, including violence as a result of increased alcohol intake and more pressure to have money in order to buy consumer goods. The wage labor data showed that many of the men turn to the oil companies to gain money through oil related work. Even with these stresses and disadvantages, the WHOQOL survey results showed that Gareno residents report higher satisfaction in certain lifestyle categories than the residents of the more traditional community Quehueiri-ono, namely access to health and transport. However, Quehueiri-ono residents report high overall quality of life, health of the environment, and social support. The Huaorani of Gareno are not “noble savages.” They do not honor their environment above all else nor do they simply live in “harmony” with their forest as outsiders tend to believe. Their largest concerns are the health of their families and the education of their children. Gareno’s growing population and introduction into a consumer society has encouraged the people in this community to search for ways in which they can build their own human, social, and financial capital. It is unfortunate and untenable that these goals come at an ecological cost concomitant with oil extraction. What are needed are partnerships between communities like Gareno with organizations such as international NGOs that provide livelihood support without ecological degradation. Projects including ecotourism are underway via organizations such as Tropic, but other options include microenterprise-based handicraft production linked with ecological monitoring and stewardship of important floral resources involved in the production of hammocks, bags, and jewelry (e.g., Astrocaryum chambira). Various Huaorani communities could work together to establish a fair trade cooperative that assures that handicrafts are made via best practices and that prices do not undercut producers or gouge buyers. Another idea, ripe for the involvement of an environmental education NGO, would be the creation of a study abroad field program in which Huaorani youth and international students work together in learning ecological field methods such that the former can work as research assistants or ecotourism guides and the latter can use these skills for graduate study. A side benefit would be the generation of longitudinal faunal census data to monitor population fluctuations in various parts of Huaorani territory. These programs need to be supported with national and international groups that have the interest of the community at heart. But these partnerships cannot be based on starry-eyed visions of noble savages, where the worth of people stems from their congruence with romanticized notions of ecological exaltedness.

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As oil extraction activities, already present in the region, contribute largely to the national economy and affect the way communities are organized, stances that call for the immediate withdrawal of oil companies from the Amazon are not realistic. Communities similar to Gareno are unlikely to go back to subsistence lifestyles with the removal of the oil industry in their region. If all oil company activities are removed from their territory, they will look to other wage labor positions to fill their need for food and money. However, it should be emphasized that what makes oil extraction attractive to residents of Gareno are the services provided by oil companies that the national government fails to offer. Not only should the Ecuadorian government fulfill its duty to provide medical, educational, and economic services to its people, but national policy and programs that educate and provide indigenous peoples with options for other forms of development, such as fair trade farming mentioned above, can help mitigate conflicts between the government and these groups in the future. As initial sustainable development programs are implemented, the oil industry in the country can begin to be disbanded. Most importantly, the Ecuadorian government needs to include indigenous groups in these policy decisions so as to create a mutually beneficial agreement, thus one that will have a long lasting impact. In Gareno, the people have chosen economic benefits, territorial ties, and reduced social conflict over the ecological resources they used to enjoy in their former residences. They clearly recognize these tradeoffs and see the benefits that oil companies can bring despite the environmental cost. A majority of them understand that oil means air and water pollution, noise, defaunation, trash, and traffic. The community members look towards further development such as increased job availability to solve these issues rather than seeing it as something they should avoid. Their community is an ideal location for sustainable development to expand. They want and need some form of economic growth and also require that growth to nurture their surrounding environment. Researchers, think tanks, governments and non-governmental organizations need to focus on communities that are at this cusp and change a history of destructive development to one that will not only sustain the present generation, but future generations to come.

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End Notes i

Kimerling, 1991.

Kimerling, 1996.

iii

Ibid.

Rival, 2002.

The 30-year period refers roughly from the first incursions of oil companies

(e.g., Shell) in the region in the 1930s to the start of sustained peaceful contact with outsiders beginning in the 1960s. vi

Rival, 2000.

vii

Franzen, 2006.

viii

Kimerling, 2000; Sawyer, 2004.

Rival, 1993.

Bernard, 2006.

Holt et al., 2004; Lu in press.

Bibliography Bernard, Russell H. 2006. Research Methods in Anthropology: Qualitative and Quantitative Method, 313-315. Lanham, MD: Altamira Press. Franzen, Margaret. 2006. Evaluating the sustainability of hunting: a comparison of harvest profiles across three Huaorani communities. Environmental Conservation 33:36-45. Holt, Flora L., Richard E. Bilsborrow, and Ana Isabel OĂąa. 2004. Demography, Household Economics, and Land and Resource Use of Five Indigenous Populations of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon: A Summary of Ethnographic Research. Occasional Working Paper, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Kimerling, Judith. 1991. Disregarding Environmental Law: Petroleum Development in Protected Natural Areas and Indigenous Homelands in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Hastings International and Comparative Law Review 849-903. Kimerling, Judith. 1996. Oil, lawlessness and indigenous struggles in Ecuadorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Oriente. In Green Guerillas: Environmental Conflicts and Initiatives in Latin

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America and the Caribbean, ed. Helen Collinson, 61-73. London: Latin America Bureau. Kimerling, Judith. 2000. Oil Development in Ecuador and Peru: Law, Politics and the Environment. In Amazonia at the Crossroads: The Challenge of Sustainable Development, ed. Anthony Hall, 73-96. U.S. distributor: Brookings Institution Press. Lu, Flora. In Press. Patterns of Indigenous Resilience in the Amazon: A Case Study of Huaorani Hunting in Ecuador. Journal of Ecological Anthropology 13(2). Rival, Laura. 1993. Confronting petroleum development in the Ecuadorian Amazon: The Huaorani, human rights and environmental protection. Anthropology in Action 16:14-15. Rival, Laura. 2000. Marginality with a Difference: How the Huaorani Preserve their Sharing Relations and Naturalize Outside Powers. In Hunters and Gatherers in the Modern World: Conflict, Resistance and Self-Determination, eds. Peter Schweitzer, Megan Biesele & Robert K. Hitchcock, 244-260. New York: Berghan Books. Rival, Laura M. 2002. Trekking Through History: The Huaorani of Amazonian Ecuador. New York: Columbia University Press. Sawyer, Suzana. 2004. Crude Chronicles: Indigenous Politics, Multinational Oil, and Neoliberalism in Ecuador. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.

Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, Iss. 1 (2010), Pp. 33–59

Energy efficient refurbishment of old listed dwellings: The case of Victorian housing stock Magdalini Makrodimitri Department of Architecture University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK mm788@cam.ac.uk Abstract Architects must contribute to climate change mitigation by designing structures in a way that respects natural, climatic, cultural, social and economic conditions of the local area. Such designs must take advantage of renewable energy resources, such as those derived from sun, wind, earth, and water, as well as locally produced materials. While making buildings more sustainable over time, we need to respect cultural heritage as expressed in the past, the present and the future. Architecture must also ensure thermal comfort and a healthy indoor environment throughout the year, while diminishing conventional fuels consumption on the basis of a bioclimatic, energy efficient approach. Buildings in use or in the course of erection account for over 50% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, upgrading old inefficient buildings to meet principles of bioclimatic design is an effective way to reduce energy use in industrialized countries. (Smith, 2005) However, refurbishment schemes should include both environmental design and conservation of architectural, historical and social values of old existing stock. This paper consists of two parts. First, there is a review of the objectives, targets and studies with regards to the old, existing UK housing stock. This section highlights the principles and advantages of bioclimatic design and energy efficient improvements to the fabric and services of listed buildings. The second part contains an evaluation of performance of the recently refurbished Victorian House at 17 St. Augustine‟s Road in London. Critical assessment of its current performance has been carried out according to winter and summer on-site measurements, simulations and calculations in TAS and SAP softwares. This study will focus more on winter performance and annual heating fuel demands. Occupant behaviour and its impact on the Low Energy Victorian House‟s (LEVH) performance has also been investigated through a questionnaire survey, while the cost of refurbishment is evaluated in terms of positive effectiveness to annual savings. Author’s Note Climate change is by far one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats our planet faces and is rapidly becoming one of the most serious problems facing human society in the future. Construction activities account for a significant amount of world energy consumption. The impact of climate change on the economy, society and the environment calls for a rapid, fundamental reconsideration of our life style patterns. Now that climate change is an urgent problem requiring immediate action, existing buildings should adapt to bioclimactic design through energy efficient refurbishment in order to improve their

Consilience environmental performance and reduce the amount of energy they consume (DTI, 2003). Refurbishment of old dwellings could contribute up to 60% reduction of UK carbon emissions by 2050 (Bows et al, 2006). According to the technical paper of sustainable Development Commission: “Existing properties may be upgraded at acceptable costs to high environmental standards, and that repairing a typical Victorian house is significantly cheaper than replacing it with a new one.” (SDC, 2005) The main objectives of this research are: (a) Exploring the contribution of old existing dwellings to climate change. (b) Investigating the environmental performance of old existing UK housing in terms of winter and summer internal conditions, heating demands, fuel consumption, and potential of energy conservation if adequate refurbishment schemes take place. (c) Presenting the benefits and drawbacks of energy efficient refurbishment strategies, while accounting for conservation of architectural value of listed housing stock. (d) Considering the occupants‟ attitudes on climate change, behaviour in operating their household, and the impacts of their attitude on energy consumption and carbon emissions of their dwelling. (e) Evaluating cost effectiveness and practicality of refurbishment scenarios.

Keywords: Energy Efficient Refurbishment; UK existing housing stock; Sustainability; Conservation; Low Energy Victorian House.

1. The case of old Victorian housing stock 1.1 Introduction The UK Climate Impacts Programme27 and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report agree that warming of the global climate system is indisputable and that greenhouse gas emissions are due to human activity since the mid-20th century.15 14

Buildings are responsible for 40% to 50% of the national primary energy consumption in the UK. Half of which is used in domestic buildings to satisfy needs for lighting, heating and cooling.19 According to the Sustainable Development Commission survey in 2005, most of the houses that are going to be accommodated in the UK over the next 50 years already exist. Most of them are energy inefficient (Figure 1). Domestic buildings in the UK are responsible for almost 21% of UK greenhouse gas emissions, 50% of water wastage, and 8% of waste generation, 24% of which are construction and demolition wastes.25

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Makrodimitri: Energy Efficient Refurbishment

Figure 1: Endâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;use sector shares of total Consumption, 2007. (Source: Annual Energy Review 2007) Space heating carbon emissions have risen by 12%, reaching 53% of total housing carbon emissions from 1990 to 2003.3 Today, climate change is receiving unprecedented attention. The Stern Review13 has explored the economics of climate change. In June 2006, new targets were launched for sustainable operations on the government estate. A new target for the government office estate is to cut carbon emissions from UK housing 15% by 2012, using renewable energy and offsetting the remaining balance of emissions.1 The government has started encouraging owners, designers, builders and housing associations to use energy ratings to assess the environmental performance of dwellings and make decisions on sufficient energy efficient refurbishment options.25 SAP (Standard Assessment Procedure) rating is often used to estimate energy performance and CO2 emissions of dwellings, taking into account space and water heating. Improvements to existing dwellings must be done in a bioclimatic and sustainable manner in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the housing sector, encourage a sense of well-being,16 adapt old existing stock to the modern worldâ&#x20AC;&#x;s demand for climate change mitigation,10 and prepare residents for present and future climatic conditions. Thus, refurbishment strategies such as insulation, air tightness, ventilation, and heating and cooling strategies should be interdependent.9 Meanwhile, any changes that aim at limiting harmful carbon emissions of listed buildings should be conducted with respect to their historic value.5,6 Victorian dwellings represent the most popular traditional dwelling type in the UK, constituting a high proportion of habitable dwellings. Most of them are subject to listing due to their aesthetic, social, and historic value. Thus, CO2 reduction in the housing sector requires reconditioning of listed dwellings, which must be preserved in their original character.

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1.2 The UK Victorian Dwellings Between 1801 and 1911 there was rapid increase in the population of England, resulting in an increase of building activity in the UK between 1830 and 1900.23 The tax-free materials during 1840s and 1850s brought down costs and new construction methods such as polychromic woodwork (usual to Victorian dwellings) became affordable. The majority of Victorian houses were built on shallow foundations with load bearing walls. Sometimes suspended timber was used for the construction of upper floors, while the ground floor was made of either solid construction or wooden boards above a ventilated sub-floor area. Walls of Victorian dwellings were usually made of solid brickwork of various widths (100mm - 330mm), the pattern of which varies according to the construction system and style of each Victorian house.22 The Victorian roofs were constructed on site with wooden rafters and various types of covering materials, such as slates. Cast iron gutters and down pipes were incorporated as part of the drainage system. The type of windows used in Victorian houses is known as a “double – hung sash window.” These windows were timber framed and usually consisted of incorporated internal timber shutters. Finally, in most Victorian dwellings both fireplaces and gas stoves were used for heating, while gas lighting was widely used in Victorian times.23

1.3 The environmental performance Victorian Houses often perform very well during cold winters and hot summers due to efficient environmental behavior of significant construction elements: 30  High thermal mass solid brick walls provide 'inertia' against sharp outside temperature fluctuations. The thermal mass helps internal space maintain a more stable temperature, avoiding sharp changes to the indoor environment from changing external conditions.  The orientation and size of double hung sash windows control the amount of sunlight coming in, heat gains or losses, and ventilation rates.  High ceilings further assist the air movement in the internal space, contributing to adequate ventilation rates and indoor air quality.  When semi-detached, dwellings often are more energy efficient than detached ones, due to smaller exposed surface area (Figure 2).

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Makrodimitri: Energy Efficient Refurbishment

Figure 2: Victorian semidetached dwellings at 17 & 19 St. Augustineâ&#x20AC;&#x;s Road, London. Here it is obvious the solid brickwork construction of walls, the sash windows with internal shutters and the large height of floors. (Source: Personal Archive)

2. The process of refurbishment 2.1 Energy efficient refurbishment options It is possible to improve the fabric of traditional buildings by adding insulation to external walls internally or externally.5,6 However, internal insulation is suggested so as to maintain the appearance of external walls. In order to avoid thermal briding, insulation in the corners and around window frames or reveals, as well was at spots around eaves must be applied after careful consideration and planning.4 Available solutions for improving thermal performance of roofs vary depending on the type of roof (pitched or flat, with or without roof spaces).4 Flat roofs can be insulated either by a warm deck, where the insulation layer lies above it, or by an inverted roof system technique, where the insulation layer is installed underneath. In pitched roofs, insulation can be applied at the ceiling level, between and above joints, between and above rafter levels, or between and under rafter levels12 (Figure 3). Floor insulation can result in almost 60% reduction in heat losses, as it minimizes heat exchange between ground and internal space as well as between heated and unheated floors of a dwelling.11 In solid floors, insulation can either be applied above slab, helping the room to warm up more quickly when the heating unit is on, or below slab, which reduces the possibility of overheating. This method is preferred in warm, south-facing rooms where the slab on top absorbs heat during the day (Figure 4).

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Figure 3: Insulation options for pitched roofs, Left: Roof insulation between and over joints, Right: Roof insulation between and above rafters. 12

Figure 4: Solid ground floor insulation methods, Left: ground-bearing slab with insulation above slab, Right: -bearing slab with insulation below slab. 12

Figure 5: Insulation methods for suspended timber ground floors, Left: access from below, Right: access from above.12

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Makrodimitri: Energy Efficient Refurbishment

In suspended timber ground floors, insulation should completely fill the space between joists and be as thick as the full depth of joist. If there is access, (e.g. in case of a cellar or basement), insulation can easily be installed from below. Where there is no access from below, floorboards have to be removed in order to apply the insulation material between floor joints12 (Figure 5). Membranes, expanding foam, and mastic should always be used as additional elements to floor insulation to minimize draft risk around radiator pipes and between floorboards, or between heated and unheated spaces. Draft stripping is also recommended for badly fitting windows and doors. Secondary glazing is suggested when the existing character of dwelling needs to be maintained.4 Finally, maintenance of existing external shutters should be encouraged to reduce sunlight heat gains during summer and contribute to control of infiltration during winter (Figure 6). In older times, buildings were ventilated by the loose fitting openings and open fires which provided exhaust ventilation.4 (Figure 7). Thus, draft proofing and air tightness should be applied after careful consideration, ensuring that ventilation rates in old buildings will not be excessively reduced, putting structural elements in risk of condensation and mold growth, which can cause deterioration of fabric or have impacts on the occupants‟ health. As a solution, extracts should be installed in kitchens, bathrooms and laundries, spaces where large amounts of water vapour are produced, while ventilation of roof and floor voids should be ensured.5,6      

Also, energy consumption of an old dwelling could easily be reduced by:12 Installing a more fuel-efficient boiler.4 Maintaining and servicing heating appliances annually by a licensed technician. Installing thermostats to control heating levels, such as thermostatic radiator valves and boiler timers thereby avoiding over-heating by using thermostats to control room temperature. Insulating pipe work and hot-water cylinders, to increase the efficiency of the heating and hot water system. Fitting photocells or timers to external lights to prevent electricity waste. Changing incandescent lamps to energy-efficient versions.

Finally, further reductions in demand for energy can be achieved by adaptation of renewable technologies in traditional dwellings. In the case of listed buildings, planning permission from the conservation office of the local authority is required when installing micro generation equipment attached either to buildings or its cartilage. This ensures that equipment is not visible from important vantage points, does not damage historic fabric, or cause loss of special interest.7

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Figure 6: Left: secondary glazing; Middle: draft proofing strip inserted to a routed channel of bottom rail of a top sash; Right: external shutters.4

Figure 7: Diagram showing typical differences between the movement of moisture in modern (left) and historic (right) buildings.4

Figure 8: The Low Energy Victorian House at 17 St. Augustineâ&#x20AC;&#x;s Road, Front View. (Source: Personal Archive)

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2.2 The 17 St. Augustine’s Road refurbished Victorian House The renovated Victorian House at 17 St. Augustine‟s Road (Figure 8) stands as a very good example of efficient refurbishment of English housing. It is offered for an investigation into the effectiveness of low-energy refurbishment techniques applied on typical UK Victorian dwellings, regarding the impacts on internal conditions during both winter and summer period. Built in 1850, it is a large Victorian semi-detached dwelling, with a floor area of 250m2, situated in Camden, London. The four-story house had fallen into a state of disrepair. Its poor solid wall construction led to its classification in the “problematic” category of the UK housing stock that contains so-called, “hard to treat homes,” that are difficult to refurbish using energy efficient techniques.3 Recently, the house was refurbished by the Camden Council through the “Low Energy Victorian House (LEVH) Project.” This project aims at reducing annual CO2 emissions of LEVHs by 70% - 90% through environmental design and adaptation of efficient services, while preserving some of the dwelling‟s most important heritage features, i.e. the traditional external brickwork view.2 After its refurbishment in 2008, the house was converted into a six-bedroom dwelling and is used for social housing. The UK government, Camden Council, and firms specializing in eco-friendly construction sponsored the refurbishment. Energy Centre for Sustainable Communities also provided financial support to the project. Research and dissemination of the monitored results and analysis conducted by the Bartlett Faculty of the Built Environment (UCL) was funded by the UrbanBuzz. Insulation was applied to walls internally in order to preserve the traditional facades. The existing solid brick walls were covered by phenolic insulated plasterboards after some essential repairs on the existing brickwork had taken place. All external walls were dry-lined with fixed on battens Kingspan K18 insulated plasterboards, also known as “phenolic insulation,” (λ = 0,21 W/m°C, U – Value = 0,20 W/m²°C) of different thicknesses, varying from 45mm to 90mm depending on the location. Plywood was applied over insulation boards, where heavy fixtures and fittings were placed (Figure 9). The pitched roof was insulated with 180mm of Kingspan K717 (λ = 0,021W/mC, U – Value = 0,15 W/m²°C) between and above the rafters and a breathable membrane was added between the layers and over the top to ensure that the roof would be airtight. Tape was used to seal any gaps between insulation boards and the membrane (Figure 10). Also, insulation boards (Kingspan K3 with λ = 0,021W/m°C, U – Value = 0,18 W/m²°C) have been added over the solid concrete basement floor, which was later covered with a fine screed, while insulation upstands were applied around the edges in order to prevent thermal bridging (Figure 11).

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Figure 9: Left: internal view of the original walls; Middle: insulation panel, carried by workers; Right: cut detail of internal insulation fixed to external walls.18

Figure 10: Left: finished roof insulation; Middle: applying the Nilvent membrane above the insulation on the roof (Source: Ridley et al, 2007); Right: internal view of the insulation and the sealed junctions on the roof (Source: Personal Archive)

Figure 11: Kingspan Kooltherm K318 insulation boards on the basement floor of LEVH.21

Figure 12: Internal view of double glazed argon filled sash window with angular reveals (Source: Personal Archive)

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The original single glazed windows were replaced by new double glazed argon filled sash windows with a wooden frame (U – Value = 1,5 W/m²°C). Some of the windows have angled reveals which include insulation boards fixed to the wall junction with the window frame to prevent thermal bridging and timber cladding applied over the top for decoration (Figure 5.11). Finally, any other junctions or gaps were sealed by flexible mastic or expanding foam, aiming to improve air tightness.21 Initial porosity for 17 St. Augustine‟s Road was 30m3/m2/hr. Now it is reduced to the 7m3/m2/hr meeting new build standards.28 To improve the efficiency of the LEVH‟s services, a new oil-condensing model has replaced the old gas boiler. Additionally, new wall-attached heating plants replaced old models and a thermostat was installed to control the thermal conditions in the house. Moreover, 6m² of hot water solar thermal and 3.5 kWp of solar Photovoltaic Panels have been integrated on the roof in order to contribute to electricity and hot water demands of the house, respectively. The old incandescent light bulbs have been replaced by newer low energy ones. The LEVH is being monitored and recorded in order to gather data on how such low energy houses perform in terms of energy consumption and occupant comfort (Figure 13). A special system automatically records the electricity being generated by the PV system, while heat meters consisting of a flow meter, and temperature sensors on the flow and return pipes have been installed on the Solar Hot Water system to record the performance and energy used by the central heating system (Figure 15).18

2.3 Assessment of LEVH’s Environment Performance After refurbishment, a co-heating test was carried out at the LEVH, in order to measure the heat loss coefficient of the refurbished property. The property was found to have a heat loss of approximately is 280W/K, which met design target. The air permeability was measured by a fan pressurization test and had been successfully reduced from 30 m³/h/m² before refurbishment to be 6.5 m³/h/m². Gas consumption in the house was recorded since tenants occupied the house at the end of December 2008. Measured annual gas consumption of LEVH was 24,000 kWh while the annual electricity consumption of LEVH was 9,000 kWh. This figure includes any gas used for cooking. The average measured winter internal temperature was 21.5 ºC. Therefore, tenants are choosing to maintain slightly warmer temperatures, to “take back some increased comfort” at the expense of higher fuel bills.

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Figure 13: Left: data logger placed in the basement utility room; Right: sensors measuring the levels of humidity behind the internal insulation boards on walls.

Figure 14: Left: PV meter; Middle: flow meter on solar hot water return and temperature sensor on the solar hot water system; Right: system measuring the energy used by the central heating system. Assuming a carbon dioxide emission factor of 0.194 kg/kWh for gas and 0.42 kg/kWh for electricity, the approximate CO2 emissions are contained in Figure 15. The measured annual electricity generation of the PV system was 3000 kWh. The PV system offset 33% of the electricity consumption of the dwelling. In its unrefurbished state the house would have required an annual gas consumption of 75,000 kWh, and electricity consumption of 9000 kWh, as predicted by Parametric SAP. Thus, if savings from the PVs are considered, total gas consumption was reduced by an estimated 68%. Similarly, overall carbon dioxide emissions from gas and electricity use was reduced by an estimated 60%. Portable data loggers were used to monitor the internal conditions within the LEVH between 20/03/2009 and 03/07/2009. Most of temperatures recorded during the period of study are within thermal comfort limits (21°C - 25°C) (Figure 16). The overall performance of the house, in terms of thermal comfort, was exceptional as indicated by psychrometric chart. Nearly all the input data are within the thermal comfort area as defined by ASHRAE 55 standard (Figure 17). TAS simulations have proven necessary to investigate the quantity of heating loads required annually for heating space in the LEVH. The heating period for 17 St. Augustine‟s Road lasts nine months ranging from the end of September (27/09) to the end of April (30/04). There is a small chance that heat may also be used during the early days of May (10/05) (Figure 18).

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Makrodimitri: Energy Efficient Refurbishment

2.4 Summer Performance The LEVH generally performs well during summertime when most temperatures lie within thermal comfort limits (21째C - 25째C) on each floor. However, there are high overall percentages of temperatures exceeding 25째C, particularly on the 2nd floor, which holds the biggest exposed area to solar gains. In general, all the other floors perform very well in terms of overheating. Summer overheating is an important issue that ought to be considered carefully in order to prevent the need to increase energy use for mechanical cooling. Various simulations have been conducted to test different options that could make LEVH perform better during summer. Figure 22 summarizes the thermal performance of LEVH according to the refurbishment suggestion, each of which offers different percentages of overheating reduction (Figure 22). Most temperature percentages are within thermal comfort limit for every improvement. Nonetheless, it should be noted that the higher infiltration option might cause cold drafts even during summer albeit it has negligible percentages of overheating.

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Kg CO2/year Predicted Pre-Refurbishment 18,000 Predicted Post-Refurbishment 6,600 Measured/Estimated Post Refurbishment 7,150 Figure 15: Carbon dioxide emissions of the pre-refurbishment and postrefurbishment LEVH at 17 St. Augustineâ&#x20AC;&#x;s Road.

Figure 16: Frequency of temperatures occurring during period of study for each floor.

Figure 17: Psychrometric chart for temperatures occurred in LEVH during studied period.

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2.5 LEVH’s performance compared to unrefurbished Victorian dwellings The LEVH‟s performance can be better evaluated if it is compared to performance of another two unrefurbished Victorian Properties. 7a and 19 St. Augustine‟s Road Victorian Houses are semi-detached dwellings with three floors and an attic dating from the 1880s. They consist of solid brick wall construction and single glazed sash windows of wooden frame, but lack wall and loft insulation as well as draft proofing for windows and doors. In both properties, the heating systems are based on old gas boilers with radiators. However, the solid fuel open fireplace found in 19 St. Augustine‟s Road is rarely operated. Radiators remain in use in all heated spaces during the winter in both homes. Gas boilers with a hot water tank are used for hot water while windows are opened rarely (1h – 2h). All light bulbs in 19 St. Augustine‟s Road are energy saving, compared to only half of those in 7a. The rating of domestic appliances in both properties is B overall. Taking into account that the heating system in 7a remains in use for almost 15 hours per day during the particularly cold days of winter, this house seems to perform poorly in comparison to 19 St. Augustine‟s Road. This uses heating for only 10 hours per day, like the LEVH and achieves cool temperatures closer to thermal comfort limits (21°C - 25°C). Occupants in the LEVH seem to operate their property at comfortable but high temperatures, considering that thermal comfort could also be achievable if temperatures were within the range of 21°C – 23°C (Figure 23). Instead of this, a considerable amount of temperatures (almost 20 %) are above 24°C. The SAP 2005 spreadsheet was used to estimate carbon emissions, energy demand and fuel costs for each dwelling studied. Each home has a different floor area. Consequently, SAP results are presented per m² in order to allow comparison between studied properties. Domestic Carbon Emissions for LEVH have been reduced by 76.25% following refurbishment (DERoriginal building = 73.2 kg CO2/m²/year, DERafter refurbishment = 9.6 kg CO2/m²/year), which is close to initial target of Camden Council (reduce CO2 emissions per 80%). It is interesting to note that 7a St. Augustine‟s Victorian house has almost the same carbon emissions per m² as the pre-refurbishment LEVH. Yet the studied property consists of only one ground floor flat. 19 St. Augustine‟s Road (a two mid-floors flat) has a lower DER than 7a, but this rating is still high compared to the LEVH. This high value is due to both the location of each flat within the Victorian house and to the lack of insulation and „damproofing‟ on the fabric. As a result, both 7a and 19 St. Augustine‟s Road have respective DER values is too far above the Target Emissions Rate (TER) set by regulations in 2006 while the LEVH has achieved annual emissions rate below the TER set in 2006 (Figure 24).

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Figure 18 Annual Average Daily Heating Loads for each floor of the LEVH.

Figure 19: Percentage of temperature occurrence in each floor, during summer period.

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Figure 20: Frequency of Average Daily Summer temperatures in LEVH for each suggested improvement.

Figure 21: Reduction of overheating percentages under different refurbishment options.

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Figure 22: Percentages of Occurrence for 7a, 17 and 19 St. Augustine‟s‟ Victorian houses.

Figure 23: Domestic Emissions Rating in relation to Target Emissions Rating 2006 for 7a, 17 and 19 St. Augustine‟s‟ Victorian houses.

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Figure 24: Percentage of annual temperature occurrence in LEVH and 19 St. Augustine‟s Road Victorian House.

Figure 25: Comparison of heating load demands for LEVH and 19 St. Augustine‟s Victorian House.

Figure 26: Comparison of heating load demands for LEVH and 19 St. Augustine‟s Victorian House if 19 St. Aug. Road was operated with the same internal temperatures as LEVH.

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Figure 27: Thermal comfort in LEVH and 19 St. Augustineâ&#x20AC;&#x;s Victorian House during a 7-day questionnaire survey.

Figure 28: Payback period and annual savings according to different refurbishment options according to data taken from simulations in TAS software in terms of energy consumption.

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During spring and winter heating periods, 19 St. Augustine‟s Road has high percentages of cool daily average temperatures compared to LEVH, and thus lower percentages of temperatures are found within thermal comfort limits. In both houses, warm temperatures do not occur during heating periods (Figure 25). Performance of the refurbished Victorian house (LEVH) is better than original one (19 St. Augustine‟s Road). However, winter temperatures in the LEVH show that occupants choose to operate their house in increased thermal comfort temperatures. Both dwellings seem to perform similarly during summer. Although, cold drafts in 19 St. Augustine‟s Road are present due to lack of insulation and more heat losses from fabric during the night when low temperatures are present outside. Both dwellings appear to have the same percentage of overheating. Overheating issues must be studied further in order to suggest adequate further improvements. In comparison to that of the LEVH, 19 St. Augustine‟s Road demands a heating load three times greater (Figure 26). On the other hand, if occupants of 19 St. Augustine‟s Road had chosen to operate their home at the same temperature as 17 St. Augustine‟s Road, heating loads of the non-refurbished dwelling would have jumped to ten times higher than that of the LEVH (Figure 27). In conclusion, energy efficient refurbishment of old dwellings provides thermal comfort conditions to occupants while rapidly reducing heating and energy demands. It thus proves to be a beneficial investment for cutting fuel bills while mitigating climate change by reducing carbon emissions. Finally, the questionnaire survey showed that occupants of 19 St. Augustine‟s Road felt thermally comfortable during all of the 7-day survey period, while results from the occupants of LEVH models are more varied (Figure 28). The refurbishment of 17 St. Augustine‟s Road Victorian house cost approximately £340.000, including costs of major repairs, structural works, and labour. To address whether the occupants manage to reduce their bills for gas and electricity, Camden Council plans to extend the initiative across the borough (Prigg, 2009). Finally, many of those who object to the results demonstrate that refurbishment of Victorian Council House was too expensive in terms of the payback period. (Rupert, 2009) Although refurbishment of the Victorian House was indeed expensive, at £340,000 spent, the investment aimed to save approximately £3,750 annually (assuming UK electric price of £0.08/kWh, and £0.07/kWh for gas). These figures give a simple un-discounted payback period on the order of 90 years. 17 St. Augustine‟s Road Victorian House was also a dwelling that had remained unoccupied for a long period of time and fallen into a state of disrepair. For this reason, several costly works regarding necessary repairs and removals of damaged elements and waste had to take place together with the energy efficient refurbishment techniques. Consequently, the total cost of refurbishment increased to £340,000, although the cost of energy efficient refurbishment of a correspondent house in better condition could be kept within lower limits.

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To further evaluate the cost effectiveness of a refurbishment scheme, it is important to know how long each strategy might take to become cost-effective looking at the life of each aspect and comparing it to its savings throughout. The sum of £334,759 spent on the refurbishment scheme includes work for repairs and other works for derelict homes. Different refurbishment options can be applied to old existing homes according to their current condition and repair requirements to reduce payback period, while improving environmental performance (Figure 29 & 30).

3. Conclusion Climate change is one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats that our planet currently faces. Since building construction accounts for a significant portion of world energy consumption, upgrading old inefficient buildings so that they may meet principles of bioclimatic design is an effective way to reduce energy use in industrialized countries (Smith, 2005). However, refurbishment schemes should account for both environmental design and conservation of architectural, historic and social values of old existing stock. The refurbished Victorian home at 17 St. Augustine‟s Road is a representative example of successful energy efficient refurbishment of an old dwelling that resulted in greatly improved environmental performance. The majority of both measured and simulated temperatures with regard to the properties were found to be within thermal comfort limits, with moderate overheating during a few particularly hot summer days (T > 26°C). This latter finding suggests that further investigation may be necessary to determine efficient strategies to mitigate this problem. By installing a solar PV system, a proportion of the domestic electricity is supplied by a sustainable source thereby significantly reducing gas and electricity consumption and contributing to annual savings. Compared to temperature occurrence percentages in two other un-refurbished Victorian dwellings (7a and 19 St. Augustine‟s Road), the LEVH performs considerably better in providing thermally comfortable conditions to occupants. Although there are frequently temperatures in the high range of thermal comfort (23°C - 25°C), which suggests that tenants are exploiting some of the energy savings to increase the temperature. SAP calculations have proved that carbon emissions of the LEVH have been reduced by 76.25%, and thus the initial goal to reduce of CO2 emissions to between 70% and 80% has been achieved. Comparison of LEVH‟s carbon emissions and heating fuel consumption with the un-refurbished Victorian property at 19 St. Augustine‟s Road further illustrates the advantages of the LEVH‟s huge energy refurbishment scheme. If occupants become more aware of the environmental impact of their energy usage, more sizeable reductions in fuel bills could be achieved. According to a questionnaire survey, occupants of LEVH appear to be generally satisfied by the thermal performance of the house and the efficiency of the

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heating system. Although the annual savings in fuel bills are satisfying, the estimated payback period for LEVH seems to be too long. However, refurbishment options can be different for each existing dwelling and may be formatted to match the needs of construction and the occupantsâ&#x20AC;&#x; preferences regarding their annual expenditures on fuel bills while reducing the payback period. Thus, a prior examination on the situation of old dwellings is suggested in order for adequate refurbishment schemes that fit their needs for energy efficiency to be planned. Occupants ought to be well-informed about sustainable living prior to moving into an energy efficient home in order to achieve maximize the environmental performance of their house and reduce fuel bills. Consequently, further research on refurbishment options related to cost should be conducted in order to reach even more reliable conclusions on practical refurbishment scenarios.

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Figure 29: Calculations of annual fuel cost for LEVH after refurbishment and for different renovation options.

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Bibliography 1

Action Plan 2007 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 12, Ministry of Defence, Sustainable Development [online]. Available from: <www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D2C7E54A-E6D641CB4B02DE3B5A4C8C5/0/SDAP20072012.pdf> (accessed on 20/05/2009)

Chong C. 2008, Presentation on 11 April 2008, [online]. Available from: <www.levh.org/videos/> (accessed on 05/08/2009)

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English Heritage 2004a, Building Regulations and Historic buildings, Balancing the needs for energy conservation with those of building conservation: an Interim Guidance Note on the application of Part L [online]. Available from: <http://www.englishheritage.org.uk/upload/pdf/ign_partl_buildingregs.pdf> (accessed on 04/07/2009)

English Heritage 2008, Climate Change and the Historic Environment [online]. Available from: <www.yhub.org.uk/resources/Climate%20Change%20Micro%20Site/Clima te%20ChangeandHistoric%20Environment_English%20Heritage%20Jan%2 02006.pdf> (accessed on 01/06/2009)

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English Heritage (Website) 2009, Climate Impacts and the Victorian/Edwardian House [online]. Available from: <http://www.climatechangeandyourhome.org.uk/live/climate_ impacts_victorian_edwardian_house.aspx> (accessed on 03/07/2009)

EST (Energy Saving Trust) 2004, Good Practice Guide 155, Energy Efficiency Best Practice in Housing, Energy efficient refurbishment of existing housing, London, April 2004

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EST (Energy Saving Trust) c2004, Energy efficient refurbishment of existing housing: energy efficiency best practice in housing, London, 2004

EST (Energy Saving Trust) 2005, Energy Efficiency Best Practice in Housing, a designerâ&#x20AC;&#x;s guide CE129 [online]. Available from: <http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/uploads/documents/housingbuildin gs/CE129> (accessed on 05/07/2009)

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HM Treasury, budget 2006, A strong and strengthening economy: Investing in Britain's future [online]. Available from: <http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/bud_bud06_index.htm>, accessed on 12/05/2009 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007d: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007 [online]. Available from: <www.ipcc.ch> (accessed on 01/06/2009) 15

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Rupert RG 2009, comments on Prigg‟s article 2009, Victorian house given £330,000 eco makeover, London Evining Standard, 02.02.2009 [online] Available from: <http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article23632821details/Victorian+house+given+330,000+eco+makeover/article.doc> (accessed on 17/08/2009)

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Yates T. T. 2006, BRE (Buildings Research Establishment) trust 2006: Sustainable Refurbishment of Victorian Housing – Guidance, Assessment Method and Case Studies, Watford: BRE Trust

Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, Iss. 1 (2010), Pp. 60â&#x20AC;&#x201C;79

An Analysis of Economic Growth and Industrial Wastewater Pollution Relations in China Hong Yang* Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology Duebendorf, Switzerland* Yuan Zhou Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology Duebendorf, Switzerland Karim C Abbaspour

Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology Duebendorf, Switzerland Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between income growth and the trend in industrial wastewater discharge in China during the period 1981-2007. For the data encompassing all the provinces over the entire period considered, both an inverted U-shaped EKC and an N-shaped EKC are statistically significant. An analysis dividing provinces into rich and poor groups reveals that the EKC relations are mainly governed by the rich province group. The EKC relations for the poor province group are either not found or are statistically weak. A further analysis based on dividing the data into before and after the year 2000 is in favour of the quadratic EKC model. The results of this study show that the relationships between a given pollutant and income are temporal and spatial specific depending on the driving forces behind. This implies that results derived from one study for certain regions/countries and for a specific time period may not be generalized for other regions/countries and extrapolated to other periods.

Keywords: China; EKC; Industrial wastewater; Panel data.

1. Introduction Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s rapid economic growth at an annual rate of around 10% over the last three decades has not only been unprecedented in its own history but also unique in the world. Both national wealth and living standards have improved tremendously for the majority of citizens. Alongside the rapid economic growth, however, pollution and environmental degradation have become increasingly serious issues. Water pollution is one of the most visible and widespread of these environmental problems. Currently, many rivers and water bodies in the eastern part of the country have water quality levels below Class V, meaning that the water is too polluted to be suitable for any uses.i This has further exacerbated the water shortage endured in most parts of the country. Of all the sources of water pollution, industrial wastewater

Corresponding author, Email: hong.yang@eawag.ch, Fax: +41 44 8235375

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has been a significant one, accounting for about 50% of the total wastewater discharge in 2004.ii The sobering water quality situation raises questions about relationships between economic development and environmental pollution. The classical Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), which takes an inverted U-shape, describes the pathway of income-pollution relations as such: the environmental quality deteriorates at the early stages of economic development and subsequently improves at the later stages.iii In recent years, an N-shaped EKC relationship has been increasingly reported for some pollution indicators, notably CO2. This curve indicates an increase in pollution level after an initial decrease.iv In China, studies on the EKC relations started rather recently but have increased rapidly.v In the public sphere, the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis has often been favourably accepted and used by some to argue the inevitability of deteriorating environment quality with the country‘s rapid economic growth.vi On the other hand, many people have pointed out that China cannot afford to follow the U-shaped path experienced in developed countries because of its limited resources relative to its huge population. China must pursue a ‗C-plan,‘ China‘s way to decouple economic development from environmental pollution.vii Searching for pathways to decouple economic growth and environmental pollution has been an important motivation behind studies of the pollution-income relation. In the literature, two issues have been tackled the most: whether a given indicator of environmental degradation displays an EKC relationship with per capita income, and the driving forces or causes behind the EKC relationship. Increasingly complicated models and sophisticated statistic software have been applied in these studies.viii Studies on the EKC hypothesis have yielded a wide variety of outcomes. In studies considering different pollution indicators, conclusions about the acceptance or rejection of the EKC hypothesis have not agreed. Interestingly, there is a similar discord among studies considering the same pollution indicator. By now, it has been generally recognized that the EKC relationship is just one of many relationships between income changes and pollution.ix Panel data, i.e., combining time-series and cross-sectional data, have been commonly used in empirical studies of the EKC relationship for two major reasons: it provides a rich source of information about the economy and allows greater flexibility in modelling differences in behaviour across individuals; it also overcomes the constraint of short time-series data.x Many studies have used cross-country panel data based on the assumption that pollution and income relations are homogenous across countries. This implies that all the countries take the same path in pollution of a given element throughout the course of their economic development. Under this assumption, developed countries will experience a general improvement in the environment after an initial deterioration, while developing countries which are currently witnessing serious environmental deterioration would be expected to reverse this trend after reaching a certain level of income. In recent years, the homogeneity assumption across countries has been widely criticized and proven to be inappropriate.xi However, the question of whether or not the assumption could hold for different regions within a country remains. Detailed studies at the country

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level are often impeded by data limitation on temporal and/or cross-sectional dimensions. China is a large country with substantial regional disparities in economic development and pollution intensity, while the political system and macroeconomic policies are rather homogenous across provinces. It is of theoretical and empirical significance to examine whether or not the homogeneity assumption can be sustained for cross-provincial studies within a country, like China. This study investigates changes in industrial wastewater pollution with economic development across provinces in China during the period 1981-2007. It specifically examines the heterogeneity in pollution-income relationships between different provincial groups and different periods of observation. Some possible driving forces behind the heterogeneity are also addressed. The focus is on industrial wastewater pollution for a number of reasons. Firstly, Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s economic development/growth during the last 30 years has been directly supported by the growth in the industrial sector. Decoupling the linkage between the economic development and industrial wastewater pollution is important for halting the deterioration of water quality. Secondly, the statistics of industrial wastewater pollution have been available since the early 1980s at the national and provincial level. This relatively long time-series provides a more complete course of the changes in industrial wastewater pollution. This has made it possible to address some of the problems caused by short time-series data in the literature. It is worth mentioning the study by Groot et al. (2004), which examined the income-pollution relations applying the provincial data for industrial wastewater discharge from 1982-1997 in China (published in Environment and Development Economics). xii Their results rejected the existence of either an inverted U shape or an N-shaped EKC relation during the period they observed. Our study used the same source of data with time period 1981-2007. A comparison of the results from the two studies will provide insight into the pollution-income relations and the driving forces behind them. In this study, the industrial sector follows the scope defined in Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s national GDP accounting. This includes manufacturing, mining and quarrying, thermal power generation, water and gas utilities. It does not include construction. The primary industry, which concerns mainly agriculture; the tertiary industry, which refers to services; and the IT sector are also not in the scope of industry defined in this study. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 provides an overview of the economic growth and the trend in industrial wastewater discharge from the historical and cross-provincial perspectives. Section 3 describes model formulations and data availability. Results from different model and data setups and perspectives are reported in Section 4. Discussions of the results are given in Section 5. Section 6 provides a summary of the findings.

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GDP per capita (Yuan)

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0 1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Year

Industrial wastewater discharge (106 tons)

Fig.1 Trend in per capita GDP, 1980-2007

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000 0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

GDP per capita (Yuan)

Fig. 2 Total industrial wastewater pollution, 1980-2007

2. An Overview of Industrial Wastewater Pollution Between 1980 and 2006, the total national GDP increased by about 10 fold and per capita GDP by approximately 800% in real terms (1990 constant prices, unless otherwise specified) (Fig. 1).xiii In this process, the industrial sector has played an important role and its share in the national total GDP has been rather stable over the years, around 45%.xiv Fig. 2 depicts the trend in total industrial wastewater discharge vis-Ă -vis per capita GDP between 1981 and 2007. At the national level,

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Heilongjiang Jilin Xinjiang

Liaoning Gansu Qinghai

Inner Mongolia

Beijing Hebei Tianjin Ningxia Shanxi Shandong Shaanxi Henan

Tibet

Jiangsu

Hubei Anhui Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan

Shanghai Zhejiang

Hunan Jiangxi Fujian

GDP, yuan/capita 0 - 8000 8000 - 14000 14000 - 20000 >20000

Guangxi Guangdong

Fig. 3 Per capita GDP by provinces, 2006

Heilongjiang Jilin Xinjiang

Liaoning Gansu Qinghai

Inner Mongolia

Beijing Hebei Tianjin Ningxia Shanxi Shandong Shaanxi Henan

Tibet

Jiangsu

Hubei Anhui Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan

Shanghai Zhejiang

Hunan Jiangxi Fujian

Guangxi Guangdong

Wastewater, ton/capita 0-8 8 - 16 16 - 24 >24

Fig. 4 Per capita industrial wastewater pollution, 2006 after an initial increase, the discharge decreased. However, there was an upturn again in the later years.

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Substantial variations exist in economic structure, resources endowment, industrialisation, and urbanisation across provinces. Fig. 3 shows per capita GDP across provinces. High income provinces are concentrated in the eastern-coastal region while the poor provinces lie in the southwest, northwest and part of central China. The per capita industrial wastewater discharge is shown in Fig. 4. Most of the areas with high discharge are either coastal areas or near the coast where economic development is relatively advanced. In contrast, the lower wastewater discharge is seen in under-developed regions in the northwest and southwest of the country. The income and industrial wastewater discharge appears to have a positive correlation across provinces. This is partly because of the high intensity of industry in the eastern part of the country.

3. Model Specification and Data 3.1 Model specification There is no consensus on the theoretical background of EKC relations. xv After testing several specifications of the econometric equations, such as total pollution, per capita pollution, pollution per unit of production, we chose per capita pollution as the dependent variable. This is partly due to substantial variations across provinces in terms of economic output, population, and population density. Per capita pollution specification provides more consistent and robust statistical results. In addition, if the heterogeneity is significant with the per capita specification, it can be expected that this is also the case for the models with total level of pollution simply because of the large differences in provincial sizes and consequently different scales of the economy and pollution levels. The choice between linear and log-linear models has been a matter of interest in the econometric literature.xvi On conceptual grounds, the first model yields constant marginal effects and variable elasticities, while the second model does the opposite. In the EKC literature, no consensus is reached on which model is better. For the purpose of the present study, the linear model is chosen because of the easy interpretability of the coefficients and computational simplicity, especially when cubic terms are included. We also tested the log-linear model for comparison, and the results are mostly statistically insignificant for the pollution indicators considered. EKC models have been estimated either in quadratic or in cubic specifications between pollution and per capita income. We adopted both of the specifications in the analysis. In the EKC literature, some studies have included a number of explanatory variables in the model setup. These typically include the consumption of a certain material, e.g., energy, which is a major source of CO 2 emission, economic structure (e.g., share of the secondary industry in total GDP), and population size and density, which are expected to have impacts on pollution

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intensity.xvii In this study, the independent variables only include the linear, square and cubic forms of per capita GDP. The inclusion of some explanatory variables is tested but not reported because they do not seem to improve the model results significantly for this particular case study. Also, we consider that including explanatory variables could be conceptually problematic, because income or per capita GDP in the EKC hypothesis is supposed to be a catch-all variable in which the influence of specified factors, such as economic structural change and technological progress, are embedded.xviii Including explanatory variables in the model could lead to double accounting and multi-collinearity problems. In this study, the general forms of the models for panel data are specified below: Eit  a0  1GDPit   2GDPit2  uit

(1) Eit  a0  1GDPit   2GDP  3GDP  uit 2 it

3 it

(2) where E is the level of pollution of a particular water quality indicator in per capita terms. GDP refers to per capita GDP at 1990 constant price. The index t denotes year and i refers to province. α0, β1, β2 and β3 are the parameters to be estimated. If the EKC hypothesis is valid, β1 and β3 should be positive and β2 negative. The error components, uit, can take different structures.xix If the specification u  vi   it depends on cross section, then: it , which is called the ―fixed group effects model.‖ If the specification is dependent on both cross section and time series, then u  vi  et   it . This is referred to as a ―two-way fixed the error component follow: it effects model,‖ taking into account both group and time effects. The term vi is intended to capture the heterogeneity across groups and the term et is to represent the heterogeneity over time. εit is the classical error term with zero mean and a homoscedastic covariance matrix. Furthermore, if vi and et are treated as random variables, then it is estimated by a random effects model. The nature of the error structures leads to different estimation procedures depending on the specification. As our panel data include all the provinces in China, treating vi and et as random variables is not warranted (supported by the statistical tests of the estimations). Therefore, fixed effects models are used for all specifications in this study. The group effect, vi, is a region specific parameter to be estimated, based on the assumption that regions follow a similar pattern of pollution as they develop, albeit at potentially different levels. Controlling for such provincial differences is important as they can greatly influence the location and shape of the incomepollution relationship. Both effects vi and et are tested for their presence and the corresponding F tests are reported. Depending on their presence, the model will take either two-way or one-way fixed effects models. In addition, the heteroskedasticity is controlled for in our estimation by calculating robust standard errors for the coefficients.xx

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Per capita GDP at the turning point of wastewater pollution can be estimated by differentiating Eq (1) and Eq (2) and setting them to zero. For the quadratic model, the turning point is: GDPturning_ point  

1 2 2

(3)

For the cubic model, the upper and lower turning points are:   2   2  31 3  3 3 2

GDPturning _ po int

(4)

3.2 Data The data used for this study are taken mostly from Chinese official statistical yearbooks. In general, the socio-economic data are from China Statistical Yearbook, published annually, and all the market values are converted into 1990 constant prices. The data for the industrial wastewater discharge are obtained from various annual editions of China Environmental Statistical Yearbook, which contain information at the national and provincial level. xxi The period concerned in this study is from 1981 to 2007 for all the provinces, except for Hainan and Chongqing which gained provincial status in 1987 and 1997, respectively. The panel dataset is thus unbalanced. Table 1 presents some descriptive statistics on per capita pollution and GDP for the whole panel. We can observe that the mean of industrial wastewater discharge is higher than the median, suggesting the presence of extreme values at the right tail of the data distributions. A more accurate picture of the variability of the panel on its temporal and spatial dimensions is given by the one-way analysis of variance. The data inter- and intra-variation for provinces and years are given in Table 1. For industrial wastewater, the variation is predominantly ‗between‘ provinces while it is higher ‗within‘ years. The results indicate that between-province variation is a major source of variation in our panel. It is worth noting that underreporting problems is a likely source of error in the available statistics of wastewater pollution as there is a strong incentive for enterprises to underreport or hide the amount of wastewater discharge to avoid paying high pollution fees and fines. Quite often, local governments are reluctant to enforce the environmental standards for the sake of protecting local industries that are the major sources of their revenue. In the meantime, they also tend to underreport the wastewater discharge for maintaining a good political image. Underreporting and deliberately smoothing the amount of discharge over time reduce the likelihood of finding the true shape of the income pollution relationship and lower the model performance. This is particularly so for the time-series analysis

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Table 1 Descriptive analysis and analysis of variance for the period 1981-2007 Industrial wastewater discharge (ton/capita) GDP (yuan/capita) Descriptive statistics Mean 20.5 3456.6 Median 16.7 2241.0 Standard deviation 15.5 3494.1 Min 0.5 552.0 Max 123.2 28784.0 Analysis of variance σ2total 195638 (100%) 9.9*109 (100%) σ2b,i (%) 72.1 38.4 2 σ w,i (%) 27.9 61.6 2 σ b,t (%) 7.3 42.5 σ2w,t (%) 92.7 57.5 Note: All figures are in per capita terms. Total, between and within variances are given by σ2total, σ2b and σ2w. because the overall trend in pollution level can be severely distorted. For cross-provincial analysis, however, the problem may be less serious because the underreporting is expected to have a similar magnitude across provinces under the assumption that all enterprises and local authorities have the same incentive to underreport. In this case, the shape of EKC may be less affected, although the constant term in the model may be biased. The awareness of underreporting problems may not help to obtain more reliable data, nor is it easy to account for the degree of error caused in our analysis, as the scale and magnitude of underreporting are unknown. However, the awareness is important for making pertinent interpretations of the modelling results and drawing conclusions on those bases.

4. Results Table 2 presents the results for industrial wastewater discharge with the quadratic and cubic models. The models are estimated using fixed province and time effects. The reported F tests show statistical relevance of the province-specific and time effects, although differences among provinces are more important than changes within provinces over time. Both the quadratic model and the cubic model are supported by the total dataset and all terms of per capita GDP are statistically significant, and the parameters‘ signs comply with the EKC hypothesis. The models explain about 87% of the discharge variation as shown by the value of the adjusted R2. For the quadratic model, the turning point calculated using Eq (3) is around 7400 Yuan/capita, from which industrial wastewater discharge begins to decline. The upper turning point for the cubic model calculated using Eq (4) is around 7900 Yuan/capita.

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Table 2 Industrial wastewater discharge â&#x20AC;&#x201C; income relationships in quadratic and cubic models

GDP GDP square

All samples Quadratic 2.26E-03 (4.08)*** -1.53E-07 (-7.80)***

0.86 811

Cubic 5.14E-03 (4.45)*** -3.97E-07 (-3.51)*** 6.16E-12 (2.10)*** 0.87 811

Rich provinces Quadratic Cubic 2.73E-03 9.74E-03 (3.03)*** (6.12)*** -1.76E-07 -6.97E-07 (-6.92)*** (-5.27)*** 1.23E-11 (3.72)*** 0.87 0.89 405 405

Poor provinces Quadratic Cubic -1.09E-03 -5.03E-03 (-0.68) (-1.54) 1.92E-07 1.41E-06 (0.90) (1.42) -1.10E-10 (-1.18) 0.79 0.79 406 406

99.87 22.62

101.74 26.83

109.17 16.29

67.23 2.82

GDP cube Adjusted R2 No. of observation Province effects (F test) Time effects (F test)

108.69 21.62

72.32 2.58

Notes: (1) Estimated coefficients of province and time effects are not reported to save space. (2) T statistics from robust standard errors in parenthesis, ***significance at 0.01 level. Table 3 Quadratic and cubic models for different time periods of the panel

GDP GDP square

1981-1999 3.36E-03 (5.37 )*** -5.22E-07 (10.04)***

20002007 2.68E-03 (5.33)*** -8.44E-08 (-6.91)***

GDP cube Adjusted R2 No. of observation

0.97 563

0.928 248

1981-1999 4.08E-03 (3.74 )*** -6.56E-07

2000-2007 2.64E-03 (2.32)** -8.19E-08

(-3.46 )** 6.95E-12 (0.67) 0.97 563

(-1.23) -5.10E-14 (-0.04) 0.928 248

Notes: (1) The models are estimated with fixed province and time effects. (2) T statistics in parenthesis, ***significance at 0.01 level, **significance at 0.05, *significance at 0.10. Besides the total dataset, we also modeled sub-samples comprised of high income versus low income provinces with the purpose of testing whether consistent results can be derived from the two sub-groups divided by incomes. The split of the two sub-groups is based on the benchmark value of per capita GDP of 7300 Yuan (roughly the turning point identified above) in the year 2007. Fifteen provinces are

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categorised as rich while sixteen as comparatively poor. The results show that for the rich provinces, the parameters follow both inverted U-shaped and N shaped patterns. In the case of the low-income provinces, the models have a statistically poor performance (with all the parameters being insignificant) and the signs in terms of per capita GDP appear to be reversed. This suggests that the shape of the curve for industrial wastewater discharge in the whole dataset is predominantly determined by the performance of rich provinces, which are mostly located in the eastern part of China with rapid economic development during the period observed. It may also imply that a relationship between income and total industrial wastewater discharge for poor provinces is yet to be developed or does not exist. The estimated parameters above seem to suggest a tendency for upturn in the industrial wastewater pollution after an initial decline. To examine the effect of time on the results, we estimated models with different time periods using the year 2000 as demarcation. This division is based on the observation of the national trend in industrial wastewater discharge, which displays a clear upturn trend since 2000 (Fig. 2). The quadratic and cubic models are estimated and the results are shown in Table 3. For the quadratic model, the results for 2000-2007 comply with an inverted U-shaped EKC. For the cubic model, the data for before and after 2000 yield statistically insignificant parameters for total wastewater discharge.

5. Discussion With the discrepant estimation results for income-pollution relations reported in the previous section, this section provides a discussion on the relations between industrial wastewater discharge and economic development in China. Some insights into the robustness of the EKC hypothesis are elaborated. To observe the estimated EKC relations visually, we provide figures showing the results from different specifications of models and datasets. Only the model results that are statistically significant are plotted. Fig. 5 illustrates the curves of quadratic and cubic EKC models, respectively, with the whole dataset. The parameters in the quadratic model appear to be statistically significant and demonstrate the expected signs. The results suggest a strong inverted U-shaped relation between industrial wastewater discharge and income. In the cubic model, the parameters are also statistically significant, indicating an N-shaped relation. Both models show similar turning points. The division of sub-groups into rich and poor provinces across different time periods aims at investigating the consistency of the model results with different data specifications. In essence, this tests whether the assumption of a common path in pollution-income relations can be sustained in the study within a country.

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Yang et al.: An Analysis of Economic Growth

Wasterwater discharge, ton/capita

Quadratic and cubic models for all the provinces 30 Quadratic

Cubic

20 15 10 5 0 0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

GDP/capita, yuan

Fig. 5 Quadratic and cubic EKC for the whole dataset

Quadratic and cubic models for the rich province group

Wastewater discharge, ton/capita

50 Quadratic

Cubic

30 20 10 0 0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

GDP/capita, yuan

Fig. 6 Quadratic and cubic EKC for the rich province group The significant difference in the results between the rich and poor provincial groups shown in Table 2 suggests a strong influence of the state of economic development on the pollution-income relations. For the rich province group, the compliance with both an inverted-U shaped and an N shaped EKC implies that a higher income level and a faster economic development lead to a clearer display of the trend in pollution-income relations. Conversely, for the poor province group, the

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Quadratic model for the two time periods Wastewater discharge, ton/capita

40 1981-99 2000-07

0 0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

GDP/capita, yuan

Fig. 7 Quadratic EKC for two time periods: 1981-99 and 2000-07 statistically insignificant parameters are partly the result of a lack of economic development in these provinces, where changes in industrial wastewater pollution are relatively small over the period of observation. Comparing the results for the rich province group and for all the provinces, it can be seen that the slopes of the EKCs for the rich province group are steeper than those for the dataset of all the provinces. The per capita GDP at the turning point is around 7700 Yuan/year for the rich province group, slightly higher than that for the whole dataset. With Eq. (4), the trough of turning point for the cubic model is estimated to be around 28000 Yuan (in 1990 constant price). So far, only Shanghai has surpassed this income level since 2006.xxii However, observing the industrial wastewater discharge per capita for 2006 and 2007 in Shanghai, a second increase in pollution is not observed. This suggests a high uncertainty in the prediction of the pollution-income relations beyond the scope of the majority of the observed data. The results indicate that the inverted-U shaped EKC has been the dominant trend in the industrial wastewater pollution during the period observed. Nevertheless, given the fact that within the rich and poor provincial groups, variations in economic development and industrial structure and resources endowments are significant, different paths in the pollution-income relations can be expected for individual provinces. Moreover, the homogeneity assumption across provinces can be challenged for the study within one country. The division of the data into before and after 2000 yield different results between the two sub-samples as well as between the sub-periods and the entire period. Only the quadratic model yielded statistically significant parameters for the two time periods, and the results are illustrated in Fig. 7. One of the most distinct features is the much wider range of per capita GDP across provinces in the period 2000-2007 than in the period 1981-1999. This reflects the substantial increase in the regional income inequality during the later years, with the eastern provinces

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Yang et al.: An Analysis of Economic Growth

displaying much faster growth than the inland provinces.xxiii Another distinct feature shown in Fig. 7 is the substantial difference in per capita GDP at the turning point of the industrial wastewater discharge for the two time periods. For the period 19811999, the per capita GDP at the turning point is only around 3200 Yuan/year. For the period 2000-2007, the turning point is around 15800 Yuan/year. The significant differences between the estimates for the two time periods suggest that the length of the time-series data can have significant impact on the estimation of the EKC. This situation may partly explain the different results in different studies concerning the same or similar pollutant during different periods. In addition, given that one does not know if the data in hand covers the entire course of the income-pollution relations (In most of the cases, it can be expected that the available data do not cover the whole course), any conclusion on the acceptance or rejection of the EKC can only be time period specific, and may not be extended to other periods or generalized. Understanding this is of importance for clarifying variations among studies on the EKC relations for the same pollution indicators. The significance of studying the EKC relations partly lies in its usefulness for describing the course of the pollution and income relationship for a given dataset. However, as the pollution-income relations are dynamic over time, an attempt to find a statistically significant EKC relationship in any time period examined may be not possible or appropriate. For this reason, the utility of the EKC model as an analysis tool for providing a general characterization of pollution-income relations is rather limited. It is interesting to compare the results from this study with the study by Groot et al. (2004).xxiv They examined the income-pollution relations applying the provincial data for industrial wastewater discharge from 1982-1997 in China. The results rejected the existence of either an inverted U-shape or an N-shaped EKC relation during the period they observed, which is approximately the first sub-period (1981-1999) in the present study. As shown in Table 3, all the parameters in the quadratic model are statistically significant, supporting an inverted U-shaped EKC relationship (Fig. 6). Our results, hence, are inconsistent with the conclusion by Groot et al. (2004).xxv For testing purposes, we ran the model with the same estimation method and same time period used by Groot (2004).xxvi Their results can be reproduced, which means that the inconsistency mainly stemmed from the different estimation methods. Groot et al. (2004) considered only the province-fixed effect, or the so-called one way effects.xxvii The autocorrelation was controlled for by regression with AR(1) disturbance. In our estimation, both province-fixed effects and time-fixed effects, (two-way effects) are considered. With this estimation method, autocorrelation is less of an issue since we â&#x20AC;&#x2022;dummied outâ&#x20AC;&#x2013; the time by considering the time-fixed effects. The situation suggests that the results are highly sensitive to the estimation methods used. This raises questions on the robustness of rejecting or accepting an EKC relationship in most studies where conclusions are derived from one specific estimation method favoured by individual authors.

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6. Conclusion This study investigated the EKC relations with respect to industrial wastewater pollution and income changes in China. The EKC relations are modelled with quadratic and cubic models using a panel data approach with different data specifications. In general, both an inverted U-shaped curve and an N-shaped curve are found statistically significant for industrial wastewater discharge. Breaking the data into rich and poor provinces and different time periods reveals that the shapes of the income-pollution relations derived are often inconsistent between the sub-samples and with the results estimated with the entire sample. Overall, the rich province group has a better compliance with the trend found for the entire dataset. Poor provinces in general do not show a clear pattern in terms of the EKC relations. Inconsistency in the sub-samples for before and after 2000 does not show a clear bias to a particular sub-time period. In the EKC literature, conflicting results are often derived from different studies. By examining the relationship between income and industrial wastewater discharge in China, this study has shown that the regression results are highly sensitive to the estimation methods, length of time period, and regional specification. The inference is that conflicting results on the shape and turning point of the EKC are inevitable. As there is no consensus on which method and data specification are superior to others, judging which approach is more appropriate and whose results are more accurate is often highly subjective. Any conclusion concerning the pollution-income relationship for a particular pollutant can only be made in the context of the time and space that the study is based on. An important goal of studying pollution-income relations should be to address the driving forces and polices required for generating desired driving forces. Whatever the shapes of the income-pollution relations, one can be sure that the environmental quality will not improve automatically with income increases, but require appropriate policies to generate enabling capacities and incentives to reduce the pollution.

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Yang et al.: An Analysis of Economic Growth

Bibliography Barbier, B., 1997. Introduction to the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Special Issue. Environment and Development Economics, 2(4):369-381. Brajer, V., Mead, R., Xiao, F., 2008. Health benefits of tunneling through the Chinese environmental Kuznets curve. Ecological Economics, 66: 674-686. Bräanlund, R., Ghalwash, T., 2008. The income-pollution relationship and the role of income distributin: An analysis of Swedish household data. Resource and Energy Economies 30: 369-387. Bruvoll, A., and Medin, H., 2003. Factors behind the environmental Kuznets Curve, a decomposition of the changes in air pollution. Environmental and Resource Economics, 24:27-48. Canas, A., Ferrao, P., and Conceicao, P., 2003. A new environmental Kuznets curve? relationship between direct material input and income per capita: evidence from industrialized countries. Ecological Economics, 46:217-229. Criado, C.O., 2008. Temporal and spatial homogeneity in air pollutants panel EKC estimations. Environmental & Resources Economics. 40(2): 265-283. China Environmental Protection Agency, 1994. China Environmental Statistics, 1981-1990. China Environmental Science Press. Beijing. Editorial Committee of China Environment Yearbook, 1990, 1991, ...., 2005, 2006. China Environment Yearbook. China Environment Yearbook Press. Beijing. China Statistical Bureau, 2007. China Statistical Yearbook, China Statistical Press, Beijing. Cosgrove, W. and Rijsberman, F., 2000. World Water Vision: Making Water Everybody‘s Business. World Water Council. Cole, M., 2004. Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: examining the linkages. Ecological Economics, 48: 71-81. Dinda, S., 2004. Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis: a survey. Ecological Economics, 49: 431-455. Egli, H. and Steger, T., 2007. A dynamic model of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: turning point and public policy. Environmental & Resource Economics, 36: 15-34. Galeotti, M. and Lanza, A., 2005. Desperately seeking environmental Kuznets. Environmental Modelling & Software, 20: 1379-1388. Galeotti, M., Manera, M., Lanza, A., 2009. On the robustness of robustness checks of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Environment and Resources Economics. 42: 551-574. Greene, W. H., 2003. Econometric Analysis. 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. Groot, H., Withagen, C., and Zhou, M., 2004. Dynamics of China‘s regional development and pollution: an investigation into the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Environment and Development Economics, 9: 507-537. Hettige, H., Mani, M., and Wheller, D., 1997. Industrial pollution in economic development: Kuznets revisited‖. Working Paper No.1876. Development Research Group, World Bank. <http://econ.worldbank.org/docs/306.pdf> (Oct. 1, 2004).

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Jia, S., and Kang, D., 2000. When will freshwater use in China reach the climax? Advances in Water Sciences, 11(4): 470-477. Jia, S., Yang, H., Zhang, Z., Wang, L. and Xia, J., 2006. Industrial water use Kuznets Curve: evidence from industrialized countries and implications for developing countries. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 132: 183-191. Khanna, N. and Plassmann, F., 2004. The demand for environmental quality and the environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Ecological Economics, 51: 225-236. Kuznets, S., 1955. Economic growth and income inequality. American Economic Review, 445, 1-28. Lieb, C. M., 2003. The environmental Kuznets Curve - a survey of the empirical evidence and of possible causes. Discussion paper series, No. 391. University of Heidelberg. Lieb, C.M., 2004. The environmental kuznets curve and flow versus stock pollution: The neglect of future damages. Environmental and Resource Economics, 29(4): 483-506. Liu, X.Z., Heilig, G., Chen, J.M. and Heino, M., 2007. Interactions between economc growth and environmental quality in Shenzhen, China‘s first special economic zone. Ecological Economics, 62: 559-570. Martinez-Alier, J., 1995. The environment as a luxury good or ‗too poor to be green? Economie Appliquee, 48: 215–30. Ministry of Water Resources, 2006. China Water Resources Bulletin. Water Conservancy and Hydropower Publisher, Beijing, China. Muellue-Fuerstenberger, G. and Wagner, M., 2007. Exploring the environmental Kuznets hypothesis: theoretical and econometric problems. Ecological Economics, 62: 648-660. Munasinghe, M., 1999. Is environmental degradation an inevitable consequence of economic growth: tunneling through the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Ecological Economics, 29(1): 89–109. Pasche, M., 2002. Technical progress, structural change, and the environmental Kuznets curve. Ecological Economics, 42: 381-389. Paudel, K., Zapata, H. and Susanto, D., 2005. An empirical test of Environmental Kuznets Curve for water pollution. Environmental & Resources Economics, 31: 325-348. Shafik, N., 1994. Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An Econometric Analysis. Oxford Economic Papers, 46: 757—777. Stern, D., 2004. The rise and fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. World Development, 32(8): 1419-1439. Wang, H.W., Zhang, X.L., Wei, S.F., and Kang, H., 2007. Analysis on the coupling law between economic development and the environment in Ürümqi city. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 50: 149-158. Wang, S.C., 2005. Seminar on developing water saving society. http://www.chinawater.net.cn/minister-new/bzzs.asp?id=20475 White, H., 1980. A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48: 817-838. Yandle, B., Bhattarai, M. and Vijayaraghavan, M., 2004. Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Review of Findings, Methods, and Policy Implications, PERC

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Research Study 02-1a, April 2004. http://www.perc.org/pdf/rs02_1a.pdf (Oct. 15, 2004).

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End Notes i

Ministry of Water Resources, 2006

China Statistical Bureau, 2007

iii

Shafik, 1994; Hettige et al., 1997; Munasinghe, 1999; Stern, 2004; Yandle et al., 2004; Jia et al., 2006

Lieb, 2003; Khanna and Plassmann, 2004; Lieb, 2004

Groot et al., 2004; Liu et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2007; Brajer et al., 2008

Jia and Kang, 2000

vii

Wang, 2005

viii

e.g. Bruvoll and Medin, 2003; Canas et al., 2003; Egli and Steger, 2007; Br채nnlund

and Ghalwash, 2008; Galeotti et al., 2009 ix

Lieb, 2003; Stern, 2004

Greene, 2003

Lieb, 2003; Dinda, 2004; Stern, 2004; Mueller-Fuerstenberger and Wagner, 2007; Criado, 2008

xii

Groot et al. 2004

xiii

China Statistical Bureau, 2007

xiv

China Statistical Bureau, 2007

Groot et al., 2004

xvi

Cole et al., 2004; Galeotti and Lanza, 2005

xvii

Pasche, 2002; Bruvoll and Medin, 2003; Khanna and Plassmann, 2004

xviii

Lieb, 2003; Dinda, 2004

xix

Greene, 2003

White, 1980

xxi

China Environmental Protection Agency, 1994; Editorial Committee of China Environment Yearbook, 1990-2007

xxii

China Statistical Yearbook, 2008

xxiii

Chinese Statistical Bureau, 2007

xxiv

Groot et al. 2004

xxv

Groot et al. 2004

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xxvi

Groot 2004

xxvii

Groot et al. (2004)

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Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, Iss. 1 (2010), Pp. 80–102

Factors affecting farmers’ decisions on fertilizer use: A case study for the Chaobai watershed in Northern China Yuan Zhou Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology Überlandstr. 133, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland* Hong Yang Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology Überlandstr. 133, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland Hans-Joachim Mosler Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology Überlandstr. 133, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland Karim C. Abbaspour Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology Überlandstr. 133, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland Abstract The Chaobai watershed in northern China is the most important source of drinking water for Beijing. The level of fertilizer use, especially overuse, as well as farming practices in the region have a great impact on the water quality downstream and affect an enormous number of people. This study analyzes the factors influencing the farmers’ decisions on fertilizer use and the implications for water quality. The analysis is based on a survey of 349 farm households. It takes into consideration both farm and farmer specific characteristics and farmers’ subjective evaluations of factors shaping their decisions. Regression models are used to examine the determinants of fertilizer use intensity across farm households and to investigate the factors influencing the overuse of nitrogen. The results suggest that many of these subjective factors have great significance in determining famers’ decisions. The results also show that irrigation, gains in crop yield and higher earning goals are positively correlated with fertilizer use intensity, while farm size, manure application, soil fertility and the distance to fertilizer markets are negatively correlated. Investigation of the overuse problem shows that higher education level significantly reduces the probability of over-fertilization. Based on these findings a few policy relevant implications are discussed.

Keywords: China; fertilizer use; subjective evaluation; maize; nitrogen.

email: yuan.zhou@eawag.ch

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Zhou et al.: Farmer decision making on fertilizer use

1. Introduction Fertilizer is regarded as crucial for crop production by small-scale Chinese farmers. Intensive use of chemical fertilizer (henceforth, fertilizer) in conjunction with improved seed varieties and expanded irrigation have brought about rapid growth in China’s grain production. From 1983 to 2005, average fertilizer use increased from 169 kg/ha to 390 kg/ha,i of which about two-thirds were nitrogenbased. In the same period, the grain yields grew from 3.7 tons to 5.3 tons per hectare. Zhu and Chenii suggest that there is a strong positive correlation between annual food production and annual consumption of fertilizers during the period of 1949-1998. However, increased fertilizer use has not come without costs to society. Empirical studies have shown that on many high-yielding farmlands, the nitrogen fertilizer application rate has been too high, resulting not only in decreased efficiency and large costs, but also negative impacts on air and water quality.iii In addition, eutrophication has become a serious environmental concern in many freshwater bodies in China. For example, Sun and Zhangiv reported that 61% of the 28 lakes investigated were significantly eutrophied. A recent algae bloom in the Tai Lake has threatened the water supply of over two million people in Jiangsu Province.v Among all the causes of the eutrophication and degradation of water quality, nutrient loss from agricultural land has been an important one.vi The Chaobai watershed, located in the upstream Miyun reservoir, is Beijing’s most important source of drinking water and provides about 70% of Beijing’s surface water supply.vii With the point source pollution from industries in the watershed being under stringent control, non-point sources, mainly from agricultural activities, have become the primary polluters of the reservoir’s water. The Wang et al.viii study shows that non-point source pollution contributes to 73% of COD (chemical oxygen demand), 94% of NH3-N, 75% of total N and 94% of HPO4 in the Miyun reservoir’s total load. How best to influence farmers’ fertilizer use to reduce water pollution without compromising their welfare and development opportunities is an important question to be investigated. The motivation of the current study is to understand the factors determining farmers’ fertilizer use for formulating effective intervention strategies. In the existing literature, the analysis of the decisions on fertilizer use has mainly considered the factors lying within the public domain (e.g. prices and marketing, fertilizer provision and distribution, research and credit, etc.), and on agro-climatic conditions and characteristics of the farm or the farmer (e.g. education, age, experience and farm resources).ix Most earlier works on fertilizer use by economists focus on fertilizer adoption and assume that farmers make adoption decisions based on utility maximization. However, social scientists, especially anthropologists and sociologists, have argued that farmers’ subjective assessments of agricultural technologies are also important in influencing their adoption behaviour.x For example, the works of Adesina and Zinnah, Adesina and Baidu-forson and Sall et al.xi show that farmers’ perceptions have been found important in adoption of modern crop varieties in several regions in Africa.

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Given that a majority of Chinese farmers use fertilizer and adoption is not a problem, this paper intends to investigate the factors determining the intensity of fertilizer application and its overuse. Building on earlier works concerning farmers’ decision making and behavioural decision theoryxii and drawing on our household survey, this study investigates the effects of both conventional farm and farmer related characteristics as well as farmers’ subjective evaluations on fertilizer use. The case study of the Chaobai watershed in China is used to provide insights into the most important determinants of fertilizer use.

2. Data and description of farming characteristics 2.1 The household survey Data used in the analysis were collected from a survey of farm households in the Chaobai watershed from July to November 2006 in collaboration with the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The study area consists of three counties of Hebei province, namely Chicheng, Fengning and Luanping, covering an area of 10,877 km2 (Fig. 1). We first selected townships in each county to ensure a wide coverage of the geographical zones, followed by the selection of three representative villages in each township. Around ten households in each village were chosen randomly to conduct face-toface interviews with the head of each household or the ones responsible for farming activities. In total, the survey covered 34 villages and 349 farm households. These represent about 5% and 0.3% of the total number of villages and farm households in the study area, respectively. The questionnaire of the survey was designed to solicit information on farmers’ water use and fertilizer use behaviours in farming activities. It encompasses households’ demographics, farmland and crops, farming inputs and outputs including manure and fertilizer use, farmers’ ownership of assets and income sources. In particular, the survey contains a series of questions relating to farmers’ subjective assessment of the factors influencing their decisions about fertilizer use. Farmers were asked to list the most influential factors when deciding how much fertilizer to use. In addition, farmers were asked to rate the decision variables according to their importance.

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Zhou et al.: Farmer decision making on fertilizer use

Study area

Figure 1: Location of the study area in the Chaobai watershed

2.2 Farming characteristics The three counties in the study area are all classified as national poor counties, with agriculture as the main economic sector. The general figures relating to social, economic and natural conditions of the study area and surveyed farmers are shown in Table 1. Maize, the major crop, is grown once a year. Other crops include millet, sorghum, beans and tubers. On a small percentage of land, paddy rice and cash crops such as oil seeds and vegetables are grown. Due to the semi-arid climate and the mountainous environment, most crops are rainfed, and irrigated land accounts for less than 20% of the arable land. Fallow or routine rotations of crops are rarely practiced in the region. Nutrient replenishment relies almost solely on the application of manure and chemical fertilizer. Fertilizer has been used in significant amounts in this region and tends to increase over time (Fig. 2). The higher prices of fertilizer and maize on the national level before 1996 resulted from the escalating demand for fertilizer induced by the increase in government purchases of agricultural products. Since 1996, under certain government regulations,xiii the prices of both fertilizer and maize have remained relatively stable. The ratio of the price indices of fertilizer to maize has varied slightly in that time, between 0.90 and 1.16. In our survey area, the main fertilizer used at seeding is diammonium phosphate (DAP), and the main topdressing fertilizer is nitrogen, including predominant use of urea and ammonium bicarbonate. Potassium fertilizer application has been largely ignored on grain crops. Table 2 lists the average level of fertilizer intensity for a few selected crops based on our survey data. Here ammonium bicarbonate is converted to equivalent urea based on the nitrogen content and is added to the amount of urea applied.

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Characteristics

Chicheng county

Fengning county

Luanping county

Area Arable land (ha)

5287 47,440

4174 30,167

1416 9,973

Water resources (million m3) Population (persons) Agricultural output value (million yuan) Number of surveyed farm households Age of household head (years) Education of household head (years) Household size Cultivated area per household (ha) Irrigated area per household (ha) Land growing maize per household (ha) Total number of plots Total fertilizer use (kg/ha) Maize yield (kg/ha) Farm income (yuan/person) Total income (yuan/person)

349 280,777 851 167 48.4 4.95 3.2 0.58 0.17 0.30 7.8 528 6255 790 2357

295 223,600 778 122 47.5 6.01 3.5 0.63 0.17 0.31 7.9 592 6698 682 3187

156 118,182 537 60 48.8 6.08 3.2 0.41 0.17 0.26 5.2 682 7718 623 3460

(km2)

Table 1: General characteristics of the study area and surveyed farmers by county. (Source: Authorsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; survey and the Statistical Yearbooks of Chicheng, Fengning and Luanping counties, 2005.)

600 NPK fertilizer (left axis)

500

Fertilizer price index

140

400

120 300

Price index

Fertilzer use (kg/ha)

Maize price index

200 100 100

0 80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year

Figure 2: NPK fertilizer use per hectare of gross sown area (kg/ha) and fertilizer and maize price indices, 1995-2005. (Source: Statistical Yearbooks of Chicheng, Fengning and Luanping counties, 1995-2004, China Agricultural Development Bulletin, 2005.)

Consilience Crops

Zhou et al.: Farmer decision making on fertilizer use

Diammonium phosphate kg/ha Maize 178 Coarse grains 89 Rice 159

Urea kg/ha 402 207 530

Fertilizer cost % of total capital inputs Crop yield yuan/ha % kg/ha 1311 53 6360 642 45 3660 1392 46 7185

Table 2: Average fertilizer use on selected crops in the study area. (Source: Authors’ survey.) In maize plots, DAP is on average applied on 178 kg/ha, in conjunction with 402 kg/ha for urea. Compared with maize, less fertilizer is used on coarse grains but more is applied to paddy rice. Farmers tend to emphasize the use of nitrogen fertilizer but undervalue the effects of phosphorous and potassium fertilizers. The actual rate of N and P2O5 application of 1:0.38 diverges significantly from the recommended ratio of 1:0.6-0.7xiv for this region. The situation may be partly attributed to the farmers’ experiences with fertilizer, which started with nitrogen (i.e. urea), and were gradually exposed to phosphate fertilizer. The knowledge of potassium came last and remains mostly lacking. The fertilizer cost for maize accounts for 53% of total capital inputs, which is the highest among grain crops planted in the region. This implies that farmers put an emphasis on fertilizer application in maize to secure high yields. As maize is the dominant crop of the farming system, the subsequent analysis of decisions on fertilizer use will focus on maize only.

3. Conceptual framework Following the literature on fertilizer use and farmers’ decision making, fertilizer use intensity can be analyzed as a function of farm and farmer related variables, agro-climate conditions and variables related to farmers’ subjective assessments. The dependent variable is the total amount of fertilizer per hectare including DAP and all nitrogen based fertilizer. For the sake of comparison, we converted all other types of nitrogen fertilizer to urea-equivalent amounts based on their nitrogen contents. The empirical model is specified as:

Yi   Xh  Xc  Xsub i

(1)

where Yi denotes the total fertilizer per hectare (kg/ha) on maize land for the ith household, Xh is a matrix of farm and farmer characteristics, Xc stands for agroclimate conditions, Xsub refers to the variables related to farmers’ subjective evaluations and  is the usual error term. α, ,  and  are the parameters to be estimated. The measurement data representing climate conditions, such as precipitation and temperature, are similar across the surveyed area and thus too coarse to be used in this model. The agronomic conditions can be in part captured by including two regional dummies, Fengning and Luanping counties. Chicheng county was chosen as the benchmark because it occupies the largest portion of the study area and provides the most important source of water. The selection of the independent variables of Xh and Xsub will be described in detail in the following section. As all the farmers surveyed use fertilizer, we apply an ordinary least square

Consilience

(OLS) estimation instead of Tobit to the models explaining the variation in fertilizer use intensity. Furthermore, due to the serious problem of overuse of nitrogen fertilizer as demonstrated by the survey data, we estimate a probit model to identify the specific factors affecting over-fertilization. Farmers are split into two groups according to the cut-off value of 450 kg/ha of urea application, below which farmers are regarded as normal users and above as overusers. The cut-off value is about the upper limit of the recommended nitrogen level for this region.xv The probit model can be described as follows. The dependent variable (Y) takes binary values; 1 if the farmer overuses fertilizer, and 0 otherwise. Following Wooldridge,xvi the model can be specified as:

Prob(Y  1)  F (  ' X )

(2)

Prob(Y  0)  1  F (  ' X )

where F is a function taking on values strictly between zero and one.  is a set of parameters to be estimated, and X refers to the vector of explanatory variables. The probit model assumes F is the cumulative distribution function of normal distribution, and the model can be derived from an underlying latent variable model. Let Y* be an unobserved, or latent, variable, determined by Y *   'X  

(3)

where ε~N(0,1) and εi and εj (ij) are independent. The observable binary variable Y follows: Y  1 if Y *  0 (4) Y  0 if Y *  0 The primary goal of a probit model is to explain the effects of X on the response probability. The parameters β are estimated by maximum likelihood using STATA 9. A similar approach has been applied in previous studies of adoption of fertilizer or modern crop varieties.xvii The following set of variables is considered in this study: 1) personal attributes of the farmer: age, level of education, family subsistence pressure; 2) farming system and resource characteristics: cultivated area, manure availability, access to irrigation, soil fertility rated by the farmer, share of hilly land, and the liquidity position of the farmer; and 3) access to fertilizer: distance to fertilizer market. The variables used in this analysis are defined in Table 3.

Consilience Variables

Zhou et al.: Farmer decision making on fertilizer use Variable description

Mean

Standard deviation

Dependent variables Fertilizer use

Total fertilizer used per hectare (kg/ha)

577

201

Phosphate

Diammonium phosphate (DAP) per hectare (kg/ha)

177

Nitrogen

Urea equivalent per hectare (kg/ha)

400

173

Age

Age of household head (years)

Education

Education of household head (years)

5.5

2.6

Dependent ratios

Number of dependents/household size

0.19

Farm size

Total cultivated land (ha)

0.55

0.29

Manure

Manure applied (ton/ha)

11.1

Irrigation

0.46

0.45

1.75

0.66

Off-farm job

Proportion of irrigated land in maize land Soil fertility of maize plots (1=unfertile 2=average 3=fertile) Percentage of off-farm income in total household income

0.49

0.32

Agricultural assets

The value of household agricultural assets (yuan)

3416

4838

Hilly area

Share of hilly land in total land area

0.24

0.23

Expected yield gain

The gain in yield from fertilization (kg/ha)

2000

517

Distance

Distance from fertilizer market (township) (km)

3.39

2.76

Urea price

The price of urea (yuan/kg)

0.11

Personal attributes

Resource characteristics

Soil fertility

Other variables

Table 3: Definitions and descriptive statistics of variables used. Education gives farmers better access to information about the fertilizers and more knowledge of how much fertilizer to use. Thus education is expected to favorably affect fertilizer decisions. On the other hand, in a situation when nitrogen fertilizer is overused, better knowledge of fertilizer has the effect of neutralizing the tendency of overuse. Likewise, the effect of age is not straightforward in the adoption literature.xviii It could be that older farmers have more experience in farming and have better access to the technologies than younger farmers. On the other hand, older farmers are more risk averse and prudent than younger farmers and have a higher likelihood of applying greater amounts of fertilizer. The more dependents in a family, the greater the pressure to provide subsistence crops. The dependent ratios are included to capture such effects. It is hypothesized that the more intense the subsistence pressure, the greater will be fertilizer use intensity. The effect of farm size on farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; adoption behavior has been mixed in the literature. Farm size is found to be negatively correlated with fertilizer intensity in Coady,xix positively correlated in Waithaka et al.,xx and insignificant in Freeman and Omitixxi as well as Chianu and Tsujii.xxii With regard to manure, about 40% of the households surveyed apply it. Manure usually comes from animal excreta and the possession of livestock by a household usually implies its availability. Due to absence of a market for manure, it is not correlated with farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; economic status and thus

Consilience

exogenous in the model. It is hypothesized that manure application influences fertilizer use negatively as manure replenishes nutrients to soil. Irrigation plays an important role in determining fertilizer use. Where water is not available at the right times for crop growth, fertilizer will have no or even adverse effects. Irrigation is thus hypothesized to positively contribute to fertilizer levels. With respect to soil fertility, relatively fertile land requires less fertilizer and thus is expected to negatively affect fertilizer use. The share of hilly lands as a percentage of total cultivated land is expected to be negatively correlated to fertilizer application intensity. The distance of villages to the township seat is included to capture the access to the fertilizer market. As the distance increases, the fertilizer use is expected to decrease. The financial liquidity constraint is often cited as an important determinant of fertilizer use.xxiii Here two variables are used as proxies for the availability of liquidity to the household. The first are household assets, measured as the values of agricultural machinery, tools and vehicles as well as draft animals. This is expected to exercise a positive influence on fertilizer use. Secondly, when farmers engage in offfarm work, it usually implies that the household has a diverse source of income, an indication of cash available to the household for input purchases. The off-farm variable is expected to have a positive effect on fertilizer use. As the rural credit market is not well developed in this region, in times of difficulty farmers usually use their social networks or informal ways to attain money for fertilizer. Credit is thus not included as a variable. We did not include the ratio of fertilizer price to crop price as an explanatory variable because the ratios obtained from our samples are not sufficiently varied. Due to government support in China, maize prices remain at around 1 yuan/kg in the region and fertilizer prices do not exhibit sufficient variation either. This leads to an almost uniform ratio of relative prices, which could not be used to capture the real effect on fertilizer consumption. Some of the above variables such as farm size, irrigation status and soil fertility may raise the concern of endogeneity. However, in Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s context, where land is relatively equally allocated over the rural population, the farm size is not much influenced by farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; capabilities. Leasing land happens on a small scale in the region. Therefore farm size can be regarded as exogenous in our models. Relating to land allocation, irrigation status and soil fertility of the farmland are also largely out of a farmerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s control. By and large, both canal irrigation systems and well irrigation in the region are financed by the government and farmers have little control over the irrigation status of their lands. Although private tubewells are on the rise in North China,xxiv our study area is falling behind in such investments. Therefore, irrigation and soil fertility can be regarded as exogenous as well.

Consilience

Zhou et al.: Farmer decision making on fertilizer use

4. Description of factors relating to farmers’ subjective evaluation on fertilizer Factors Growth and/or density of seedlings Own experience Yield gain from fertilization Soil fertility Types of crop planted Weather, rainfall Manure availability Knowledge of fertilizer Cost of fertilizer Capital availability

Position (% respondents) 1

36 31 10 9 5 3

18 24 11 8 4 5 6 2

4 10 8 4 3 3 2 1 3

2 1 2

0.9 0.6

0.9

1 1

0.6

Total (%) 60 67 33 21 13 11 8 4 3 1.6

Table 4: Factors influencing fertilizer use decision making. (Source: Authors’ survey.) The factors that play a role in farmers’ decisions on fertilizer use were elicited in our household survey. The first question posed was ‘what factors do you consider first, second, third, etc. when deciding on how much fertilizer to apply?’ In the survey, farmers were encouraged to freely express thoughts related to their fertilizer use. The responses were given in sequence and can be put into ten categories as shown in the first column of Table 4. Positions one to seven correspond to the degree of priority given to the various factors on a scale of one to seven. A maximum of seven factors were provided by the farmers, who collectively generated the total of ten listed below. The values in Table 4 are the percentage of respondents in each position for each of the ten categories. Although the survey techniques proved valuable in this particular case, if not well-designed and administered, this method can lead to potential bias in survey results. This is especially the case when farmers are unable to explicitly describe the factors or put them in a sequence and consequently additional indications or guidance have to be provided to facilitate the process. It is therefore important to pre-test the questionnaire with the various segments of farmers in the study area to get a grip on their capabilities and willingness to participate in the actual survey. Among the respondents, 67% of the farmers listed their own experience as an important factor, followed by 60% who listed the growth and/or density of crop seedlings. The yield gain from fertilization and soil fertility are recognized as being important by 33% and 21% of farmers, respectively. Other factors in the list include type of crops planted, weather and rainfall, manure availability and knowledge of fertilizer, etc. It is worth noting that both the cost of fertilizer and capital availability are not frequently considered in the fertilizer use decision. The sequence of the factors listed may reflect the thinking patterns of farmers. In general, more important factors to a farmer are identified relatively early in the sequence. For example, we find that the first few factors identified in position 1 are growth and/or density of crop seedlings (36%), personal experience (31%), yield gain from fertilization (10%),

Consilience % respondents Decision variables (Nc=345)

Own experience with fertilizer Gain in crop yield (N=345) Effectiveness of fertilizer (N=344) Soil fertility of your land (N=344) Amount of manure availability (N=328) Cost of fertilizer (N=345) Capital availability (N=345) Expected work involved in applying fertilizer (N=345) Neighbors' influence (N=345) Institutional influence (N=69) Goals of farming Food provision (N=345) Earnings (N=345)

Meanb

Scale of importancea 1

0.3 0.9 3.8 19.2 30.2 55.1 62.6

2.6 5.8 7.6 21.2 22.0 20.9 13.3

2.0 3.2 13.4 3.8 4.3 2.9 2.9

7.5 10.7 15.7 23.8 25.0 10.7 11.6

87.5 79.4 59.6 32.0 18.6 10.4 9.6

4.79 4.62 4.20 3.28 2.80 2.00 1.92

90.1 77.2 39.1

7.8 12.1 30.4

0.6 1.7 7.2

1.2 6.9 17.4

0.3 2.0 5.8

1.14 1.45 2.20

2.3 15.9

5.8 16.2

0.3 4.1

6.1 17.4

85.5 46.4

4.67 3.62

Table 5: Ratings for importance of decision variables in terms of fertilizer use. (Source: Authors’ survey.) a 1=not important at all; 2=not important; 3=neutral; 4=somewhat important; 5=very important b Mean of importance scores of all respondents c Number of respondents soil fertility (9%), type of crops planted and weather. Manure availability and knowledge of fertilizer are considered only from position 2 onwards, while factors such as cost and capital are considered rather late in the fertilizer use decision. Farmers were asked to rate the level of the importance of a series of decision variables using the Likert scale.xxv The variables were predefined before the interviews such that they do not entirely correspond to the factors identified by the farmers in Table 4. The question was ‘how important do you think the variable (e.g. own experience) is for your decision on how much fertilizer to apply?’ For the goals of farming, the question ‘how important is it for you to get food for your household (or earn as much money as possible) from your own farming activities?’ was posed. Table 5 shows the percentage of respondents corresponding to the scale of importance for each decision variable. The majority of farmers regarded their own experience with fertilizer and the gain in yield as important for their decisions on fertilizer use. Although it is not explicitly identified by the farmers as shown in Table 4, the effectiveness of fertilizer was important for about 75% of the farmers. The effectiveness of fertilizer can be influenced by method of placement and frequency of application. It affects the growth of crop seedlings along with weather, irrigation and farm management factors. The views on the importance of manure availability and soil fertility were rather balanced: 44% regarded manure as important and 56% considered soil fertility important. In contrast, the cost of fertilizer was not indicated as important for the majority of farmers. This was often followed by an explanation from farmers that

Consilience

Zhou et al.: Farmer decision making on fertilizer use

they would apply appropriate amounts of fertilizer no matter what the price because of the vital role fertilizer plays in securing crop yield. Similarly, the majority of farmers did not think that the amount of capital available was important for their decisions on fertilizer use. Most of the above findings are consistent with those from Table 3. Additionally, we find that expected work involved in applying fertilizer was not regarded as important. With regard to social influence, we find that most respondents gave low ratings to the importance of their neighbors’ influence. As to the institutional influence, only 69 farmers claimed that some kind of institution had made recommendations regarding fertilizer use and about 70% of them did not think the institutional influence had been important. Moreover, the goal of farming was solicited as it may be associated with fertilizer use intensity. The majority of farmers (92%) gave higher ratings to obtaining food from their own farming while 64% of them identified earnings as a farming goal. The two goals are certainly not mutually exclusive. It is expected that farmers’ subjective evaluations of factors in Table 4 and 5 affect their decisions on fertilizer use intensity. However, accounting for the effects of these subjective components in the regression models is a rather challenging task. No existing literature in fertilizer studies has dealt with it. For example, soil fertility may affect fertilizer use and it is usually assumed that the poorer the soil, the more fertilizer farmers use. This is based on the assumption that each farmer considers soil fertility when making the decision. However, if we know the importance score given to soil fertility by individual farmers, this assumption would not apply for those who rate soil fertility as unimportant to their decision making. If we combine these two pieces of information (fertility of soil and subjective evaluation) by multiplication, the effect of both factors will be taken into consideration in the model. The combined terms are calculated based on the subjective expected utility (S.E.U.) theoryxxvi and in expectancy-value formulations.xxvii The expectancy-value theory has proved useful in the explanation of social behaviours and has been widely used in social psychology.xxviii According to this theory, individuals choose behaviors based on the outcomes they expect and the values they ascribe to those expected outcomes. In this study, the values correspond to the importance score of each decision variable given by the farmers. For those variables that have no importance scores, the underlying assumption is that they have the same level of importance for all the farm households. Combining the factors and importance ratings, several variables are included in the regression models. They include: 

 

Gain in crop yield  Importance: how the yield gain from fertilization weighted by importance score affects fertilizer use intensity. The hypothesis is that farmers would use more fertilizer if the gain and the importance are higher. Manure  Importance: how manure application weighted by importance score affects fertilizer use intensity. It is assumed that if more manure is applied and manure is important for the decision then less fertilizer is used. Soil fertility  Importance: how soil fertility weighted by importance score influences the amount of fertilizer application. The hypothesis is that higher fertility and higher importance lead to less fertilizer.

Consilience 

Cost of fertilizer  Importance: how the cost of fertilizer (the price of urea) weighted by importance score affects fertilizer use. As the price of urea is similar, this term captures the effects of given importance on fertilizer use.

Capital availability is excluded due to the multicollinearity problem as it has a high degree of correlation with the cost. Fertilizer effectiveness is generally acknowledged by the farmers but a suitable indicator is not available to quantify it. Other variables are not included as a result of either low subjective significance or lack of variation in importance scores. It is worth noting that all the subjective variables were tested in the earlier stages of the models.

5. Regression results and discussion Taking into account the factors identified in Sections 3 and 4, the regression models are estimated and the results are shown in Table 6. Model 1 considers farm and farmer related factors as well as subjective information while Model 2 considers only the former. The following interpretation and discussion will focus on Model 1. Model 2 is presented as a comparison. With regard to personal attributes, the model results show statistically insignificant coefficients for the age and education variables. The insignificance of the education variable may be related to the complex role of education. On one hand, a higher level of education may facilitate fertilizer application by improving access to information on and knowledge of fertilizer. One the other hand, in a situation when nitrogen fertilizer is overused, better knowledge of fertilizer has the effect of neutralizing the tendency of overuse. This complexity, however, cannot be captured by a single-equation modeling framework because of the counteractive effects.xxix The dependent ratio is significant at 10%, suggesting that subsistence pressure from dependents positively influences the rate of fertilizer use. This is consistent with our hypothesis. Regarding farmers’ resources endowment, farm size appears significant at 5% and has a negative sign, implying that per hectare fertilizer use decreases with farm size. This reflects an increasing efficiency of fertilizer productivity as farm size increases. With respect to irrigation, the coefficient is positive and statistically significant at a 1% level. The result is not surprising because firstly, irrigation enables crops to absorb more fertilizer, which motivates farmers to apply a greater quantity. Secondly, the land connected to an irrigation canal or well is usually flat, easily accessible and has more secure yields under the condition of highly variable rainfall, thus farmers face lower risks when applying the input more intensively. The results show that if the farmer’s entire land has access to irrigation, the fertilizer use is 86 kg/ha higher than farmers with no irrigated land.

Consilience

Zhou et al.: Farmer decision making on fertilizer use Model 1

Model 2

Variables

Coefficient

Constant

680.69***

7.92

736.05***

8.84

-1.56

-1.37

-1.18

Age

statisticsa

Coefficient

t statisticsa

Education

-2.23

-0.5

-2.18

-0.48

Dependent ratio

91.88*

1.71

103.53*

1.81

Farm size

-104.27**

-2.51

-86.07**

-2.04

Irrigation

86.40***

3.43

121.76***

5.01

-1.08**

-2.25

-51.95***

-3.18

Manure Soil fertility Off-farm job

-17.41

-0.61

-12.27

-0.43

Agricultural assets

-0.01

-0.73

-0.004

-0.56

Hilly area

-0.50

-1.12

-0.32

-0.71

Distance

-10.12***

-2.67

-10.44***

-2.79

Fengning

79.69***

3.06

85.78***

3.33

Luanping

115.05***

3.45

131.34***

3.95

0.02

0.90

-1.75**

-2.45

-0.98

-0.09

-63.03**

-2.41

88.85*

1.86

Gain in crop yield ´ Importance Manure ´ Importance Soil fertility ´ Importance Cost of fertilizer ´ Importance Goal of earning R2

0.27

0.24

Number of observation

343b

343

Table 6: Determinants of the intensity of total fertilizer use.xxx *** Significance at 1%, **Significance at 5%, *Significance at 10%. a Calculated from robust standard errors using the Huber-White-sandwich estimator of variance. b Several observations are removed due to missing data. The two liquidity variables, off-farm work and household agricultural assets, do not appear significant, implying that farmers’ decisions on fertilizer is not determined by liquidity. This is consistent with farmers’ low ratings in the importance of cost and capital in Table 5. It is surprising that the share of hilly area is not correlated with fertilizer use. Distance from fertilizer market turns out to be highly significant, suggesting that in villages farther away, less fertilizer tends to be used. The regional dummy variables turn out to be highly significant and positive, indicating that the fertilizer level in Fengning and Luanping counties is considerably higher than the level in Chicheng county, which is the poorest among them. This is consistent with the reported statistics. With regard to the combined terms taking account of subjective components from farmers, we find three of them are statistically significant. Manure as a

Consilience Model 1

Model 2

Variables

Coefficient

t statistics

Coefficient

t statistics

Constant

0.5

0.74

0.48

0.69

Age

-0.01

-1.02

-0.01

-1.31

Education

-0.06*

-1.81

-0.06*

-1.72

Dependent ratio

0.70

1.60

0.73

1.62

Farm size

-0.82***

-2.79

-0.81***

-2.66

Irrigation

0.68***

3.78

0.54***

2.91

Manure

-0.005

-1.21

-0.003

-0.65

Soil fertility

-0.24**

-2.06

-0.23*

-1.91

Off-farm job

0.28

1.06

0.32

1.18

42.79

35.86

-185.15

-170.62

347

Log likelihood ratio Number of observation

Table 7: Factors influencing farmers’ overuse of nitrogen fertilizer (Probita). *** Significance at 1%, **Significance at 5%, *Significance at 10%. a The model takes 1 if the farmer overuses nitrogen and 0 otherwise. b The number of overusers is 99 with the cutoff value of nitrogen of 450kg/ha. c The number of overusers is 82 with the cutoff value of nitrogen of 500kg/ha. combined term is significant at a 5% level and negative, which implies that manure plays an important role in farmers’ decision making and generally offsets the use of chemical fertilizers. Despite the low ratings of importance of the cost of fertilizer, it appears significant in the model. Because of the similarity in fertilizer prices, this suggests that those few farmers who rate cost as important in their decisions apply significantly less fertilizer. In terms of farming goals, we find that the goal of earning is positively related to fertilizer use, indicating that farmers who prioritize earning tend to apply fertilizer more intensively. However, two other variables—the yield gain from fertilization and soil fertility—do not appear significant. The insignificance of yield gain implies that although important in farmers’ decision making, it does not significantly affect the intensity of use. For soil fertility, this could be because of the counteractive influence from the soil variable and its importance. As mentioned earlier, there exists a serious problem of overuse of nitrogen fertilizer in the study area. Now we turn to the investigation of this problem. A probit model is run to examine the effects of farm and farmer specific characteristics on the probability that an individual farmer over-fertilizes. The results in Table 7 show that education is significant and has a negative sign, which indicates that farmers with more years of schooling are less likely to overuse fertilizer. Educated farmers are more likely to be aware of the effects of fertilizers and to know the technical information that is necessary to use them effectively. Therefore, they tend to use appropriate amounts. This finding is supported by the literature. Focusing exclusively on farmers who overuse fertilizer, Maxxxi found that education is negatively correlated with total fertilizer use (nitrogen dominant) in the North China Plain. Moreover, irrigation is found to contribute positively to overuse while farm

Consilience

Zhou et al.: Farmer decision making on fertilizer use

size and soil fertility negatively influence overuse. Concerned with the uncertainty of model results to the threshold value, we performed the same econometric analysis with the cut-off point of 500 kg/ha in Model 2. The results are not sensitive to the change in the cut-off point.

6. Conclusions and policy implications This study analyzes the factors affecting farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; decisions on fertilizer use. Besides conventional farm and farmer related factors, it takes into consideration farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; subjective evaluations in the models. From the farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; points of view, their own experience, the growth and/or density of crop seedlings and yield gain from fertilization have been recognized as the most frequently considered factors in their decision making. The subjective evaluation of importance shows the high importance score of their own experience with fertilizer, yield gain from fertilization and effectiveness of fertilizer while low ratings of importance of the cost of fertilizer, capital availability, expected work in applying fertilizer and social influence. The low importance of social influence suggests that farmers in the study area received very little institutional support on fertilizer application and essentially make decisions on their own. The absence of guidance in determining appropriate levels of fertilizers for their land may have led to high levels of nitrogen fertilizer application. The results from the regression model show that many of the subjective variables are significant, suggesting that the results would be biased without taking them into account.xxxii In general, irrigation, yield gain from fertilization and the goal of earning positively affect fertilizer use intensity while farm size, manure application, soil fertility and the distance to markets have a negative influence. Despite low importance scores, farmers who rate cost and expected work as important use significantly less fertilizer. The liquidity constraints play a trivial role in influencing fertilizer use, implying that farmers in this area make decisions independent of capital availability, partly due to low fertilizer prices. Investigation of the overuse problem shows that education significantly reduces the probability of overuse of nitrogen. This finding reveals that more education programs should be implemented to prevent farmers from overusing nitrogen fertilizers. The role of education is clearly revealed in the analysis of the overuse of nitrogen but less explicitly in the analysis of determinants of fertilizer use. This study shows that fertilizer applications are largely outside the range of recommended balanced NPK levels. Many farmers expressed concern regarding the lack of understanding of land soil nutrient contents and stressed the importance of field soil experiments. These concerns imply that in this region, the education and extension services should concentrate on educating farmers about understanding their soil and recognizing the importance of balanced fertilizer application, fine-tuning their fertilizer use practices to improve the efficiency of fertilizer use, and on reducing the overuse of nitrogen. Improving rural extension services and on-site demonstrations will be beneficial to farmers by providing knowledge of soil quality and by raising awareness of the negative effects of excess fertilizer use. In the meantime, alternative

Consilience

methods of disseminating knowledge should also be explored. For example, one option is to provide technical training for fertilizer traders so that they may effectively disseminate fertilizer use information, including knowledge of balanced NPK applications, to farmers. This is extremely relevant in rural China as fertilizer traders have become the primary source of farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; knowledge on chemical fertilizers.xxxiii As weather is important in deciding the quantity of fertilizer to use, provision of timely local weather forecasts would help farmers to evaluate the risks and determine the appropriate amount to apply. To the authorsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; knowledge, there are limited education and training programs available particularly on fertilizer application in the study area. This reflects two observations that are generally the case in rural China: first, extension services have weakened since the agricultural extension reform launched in mid-1980s, and second, extension agents lack the initiative to provide technical guidance to farmers (especially on reducing the amount of fertilizers) due to lack of updated knowledge, budgetary constraints, and increasingly, pressure to sell fertilizers and other agricultural inputs to make ends meet. Policy changes are required in this area, in particular to address the need for disengaging the commercial interest of extension agents from the provision of extension services, and to train the agents to update and improve their knowledge base on the optimal and balanced use of fertilizers. In the meantime, it is important to take new forms of extension services, for example the model where these services are provided by specialized extension agencies and financed by farmer-based organizations such as commodity cooperatives. Although this study has focused on China, the research methodology and survey techniques are highly relevant for studying similar problems in other regions, in particular South and Southeast Asia where smallholder farmers dominate and share characteristics with Chinese farmers. As fertilizer consumption continues to grow, imbalanced and excessive use of fertilizers and their environmental impact will become a major concern. It is necessary to investigate and better understand the factors determining farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; decision-making concerning fertilizer use in order to come up with appropriate policies regarding prices, incentives, and future extension program priorities. Further research could include studying more in-depth the overuse problem on a wider geographical scale. A question to consider, apart from lack of awareness on the part of the farmers and their strong desire to secure yields, are which driving factors and incentives have led farmers to continue over-fertilizing, and how some of the environmental costs that are presently external to farmers might be internalized through policies. It would also be interesting to extend the study to pesticide use, since it is experiencing similar growth and has the potential to very negatively impact the environment. Furthermore, new approaches to extension services need to be explored in which tailored information and guidance on balanced fertilizer use for specific crops can be effectively provided to farmers in different agro-climatic conditions.

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End Notes i

China Agricultural Development Bulletin, 2007

Zhu and Chen, 2002

iii

Zhu and Chen, 2002; Wang et al., 2005

Sun and Zhang, 2000

Ford, 2007

Xing and Zhu, 2000; Wang et al., 2001; Wang and Cao, 2006

vii

Wang et al., 2002

viii

Wang et al., 2003

Feder et al., 1985; Adesina and Zinnah, 1993; Jha and Hojjati, 1993; Coady, 1995; Nkamleu and Adesina, 2000; Chianu and Tsujii, 2004; Abdoulaye and Sanders, 2005 x

Kivlin and Fliegel, 1967; Nowak, 1992

Adesina and Zinnah, 1993; Adesina and Baidu-forson, 1995; and Sall et al., 2000

xii

Ajzen and Fishbein, 1980; Johnson, 1987; Adesina and Baidu-forson, 1995; Öhlmér et al., 1998; Öhlmér and Lönnstedt, 2004 xiii

Gao, 2000

xiv

Qing et al., 2004

Ma, 2006

xvi

Wooldridge, 2002

xvii

Jha and Hojjati, 1993; Coady, 1995; Chianu and Tsujii, 2004; Abdoulaye and Sanders, 2005 xviii

Adesina and Baidu-forson, 1995

xix

Coady, 1995

Waithaka et al., 2007

xxi

Freeman and Omiti, 2003

xxii

Chianu and Tsujii, 2004

xxiii

Jha and Hojjati, 1993; Abdoulaye and Sanders, 2005

xxiv

Wang et al., 2006

xxv xxvi

Edwards, 1961

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xxvii

Fishbein & Ajzen, 1974; Palmgreen, 1984

xxviii

van der Pligt & de Vries, 1998; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000

xxix

It may be objected that if education facilitates fertilizer application in the low-use population and neutralizes the tendency of over-use in the high-fertilizer-use population, then this can be modeled by including a quadratic term for education in addition to the linear term. We have tried to include the quadratic term of education in the regression, but it appeared insignificant in all the cases. The reason might be that there is not a sufficient number of low fertilizer farmers in the sample to explain the counteracting effects. In fact the majority of farmers are using moderate to high amount of fertilizers in the study area. In addition, as explained in the paper, education is a somewhat complicated factor, whose effect cannot be simply modeled through a quadratic equation. xxx

See Table 3 for units of variables.

xxxi

Ma, 2006

xxxii

Omitted variable bias occurs when: 1) the omitted variable has an effect on the dependent variable and 2) the omitted variable is correlated with independent variable. Although the second point is not elaborated, the subjective variables considered in this paper have certainly correlation with personal attributes e.g. age and education etc. xxxiii

Ma et al., 2005

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Bibliography Abdoulaye, T., Sanders, J.H., 2005. Stages and determinants of fertilizer use in semiarid African agriculture: the Niger experience. Agricultural Economics 32, 167-179. Adesina, A.A., Baidu-Forson, J., 1995. Farmers' perceptions and adoption of new agricultural technology: evidence from analysis in Burkina Faso and Guinea, West Africa. Agricultural Economics 13, 1-9. Adesina, A.A., Zinnah, M.M., 1993. Technology characteristics, farmers' perceptions and adoption decisions: A Tobit model application in Sierra Leone. Agricultural Economics 9, 297-311. Ajzen, I. and Fishbein, M., 1980. Understanding attitudes and predicting social behaviour. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Chianu, J. N. and Tsujii, H., 2004. Determinants of farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; decision to adopt or not adopt inorganic fertilizer in the savannas of northern Nigeria. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 70, 293-301. China Agricultural Development Bulletin, 2007. Ministry of Agriculture of the People Republic of China, Accessed May 2010, available at http://www.agri.gov.cn/sjzl/. Coady, D.P., 1995. An empirical analysis of fertilizer use in Pakistan. Economica 62 (246), 213-234. Edwards, W., 1961. Behavioural decision theory. Annual Review of Psychology 12, 472-498. Feder, G., Just, R.E. and Zilberman, D., 1985. Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33(2), 255-298. Fishbein, M, Ajzen, I.,1974. Attitudes towards objects as predictors of single and multiple behavioural criteria. Psychological Review 81(1), 29-74. Ford, P., 2007. Tai Lake algae bloom cuts off water to millions in China's Jiangsu Province. The Christian Science Monitor. Accessed December 2007, available at http://www.pacificenvironment.org/article.php?id=2418. Freeman, H.A., Omiti, J.M., 2003. Fertilizer use in semi-arid area of Kenya: analysis of smallholder farmersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; adoption behavior under liberalized markets. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 66, 23-31. Greene, W.H., 2000. Econometric analysis. 4th edition, New York, Prentice-Hall.

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Huang, Q., Dawe, D., Huang, J., Rozelle, S., Wang, J., 2005. Irrigation, poverty and inequality in rural China. The Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 49(2), 159-175. Jha, D., Hojjati, B., 1993. Fertilizer use on smallholder farms in Eastern province, Zambia. Research Report 94, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C. Johnson, G.L., 1987. A second perspective on Earl, O., Heady’s economics of agricultural production and resource use. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 69, 707-711. Kivlin, J.E., Fliegel, F.C., 1967. Differential perceptions of innovations and rate of adoption. Rural Sociology 32, 78-91. Likert, R., 1932. A Technique for the Measurement of Attitudes, Archives of Psychology 140, 1-55. Liu, Y., Wang, X., 2005. Technological progress and Chinese agricultural growth in the 1990s. China Economic Review 16(4), 419-440. Ma, J., 2006. Farmers' Usage of Chemical Fertilizers in Grain Crops and Its Variables: A Case in the North China Plain. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics 6, 36-42. Ma, J., Zhang W., Ma W., Tang J., 2005. Survey and analysis on farmers’ cognitive avenue of chemical fertilizer in main grain production region. Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer 20 (6), 71-73. Nkamleu, G.B., Adesina, A.A., 2000. Determinants of chemical input use in periurban lowland systems: bivariate probit analysis in Cameroon. Agricultural systems 63, 111-121. Nowak, P., 1992. Why farmers adopt production technology. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 47, 14-16. Öhlmér, B., Olson, K., and Brehmer B., 1998. Understanding farmers’ decision making processes and improving managerial assistance. Agricultural Economics 18, 273-290. Öhlmér, B., Lönnstedt, L., 2004. Design of economic information. A pilot study of accounting information in decision-making processes, Food Economics - Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section C, 1:4, 222 – 231.

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Palmgreen, P., 1984. Uses and gratifications: A theoretical perspective. In: Bostrom, R.N. (Ed.), Communication Yearbook 8 (61-72). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications. Qing, S., Jia, W., Zhang, L., 2004. Soil fertilizer and agriculture sustainable development in Hebei province. Department of Agriculture of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang, China. Accessed May 2007, available at http://www.heagri.gov.cn. Rahm, M.R., Huffman, W.E., 1984. The adoption of reduced tillage: the role of human capital and other variables. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66, 405-413. Sall, S., Norman, D., Featherstone, A.M., 2000. Quantitative assessment of improved rice variety adoption: The farmer's perspective. Agricultural Systems 66(2), 129-144. Song H. Y., Ye Y. L., Qu R. T., 2005. Study on grain crop production and chemical fertilizer application in Shandong province. China Agronomy Bulletin 21 (9), 380-384. Statistical Yearbooks of Chicheng, Fengning and Luanping counties, 2005. The Bureau of Statistics in Chicheng County, Fengning County and Luanping County, Hebei Province, China. Sun, S.C., Zhang, C., 2000. Nitrogen distribution in the lakes and lacustrine of China. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 57, 23-31. Tobin, J., 1958. Estimation of relationships for limited dependent variables. Econometrica 26, 29-39. van der Pligt, J. , de Vries, N.K., 1998. Belief importance in expectancy-value models of attitudes. Journal of Applied Social Psychology 28(15), 1339-1354. Waithaka, M.M., Thornton, P.K., Shepherd, K.D., Ndiwa, N.N., 2007. Factors affecting the use of fertilizers and manure by smallholders: the case of Vihiga, western Kenya, Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 78, 211-224. Wang, X., Cao, L., 2006. Economic Approach to the Control of Agricultural NonPoint Source Pollution in China - A Case Study of the Miyun Reservoir in Beijing. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment 22(2), 88-9l. Wang, X., Guo, F., Cai, X., Hu, Q., 2003. Non-point source pollution loading of Miyun reservoir, Beijing. Urban Environment & Urban Ecology 16(1), 31-33.

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Wang, X., Li, T., Xu, Q. and He, W., 2001. Study of the distribution of non-point source pollution in the watershed of the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China. Water Science and Technology 44(7): 35-40. Wang, Y., Peng, Z., Xue, S., Yang, Y., Zhou, Y. and Zhao, L., 2005. Effect of Excessive Fertilization on Soil Ecological Environment in the Facility Farmland. Journal of Agro-Environment Science Z1, 80-84. Wang, X., Wang, Y., Cai, X., Xu, Q., Li, Y., 2002. Investigating non-point pollution in the Miyun reservoir in Beijing. Environmental Science & Technology 25(4), 1-3. Wigfield, A., Eccles, J. S., 2000. Expectancy-value theory of achievement motivation. Contemporary Educational Psychology 25, 68-81. Wooldridge, J. M., 2002. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, SouthWestern College Publishing. Xing, G.X. and Zhu, Z. L., 2000. An assessment of N loss from agricultural fields to the environment in China. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 57, 67â&#x20AC;&#x201C;73. Zhu, Z.L. and Chen, D.L., 2002. Nitrogen fertilizer use in China - contributions to food production, impacts on the environment and best management strategies. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 63, 117-127.

Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, Iss. 1 (2010), Pp. 103–118

Where science meets politics - controversy surrounding the relationship between population growth and climate change Louise Carver Institute of Development Studies, UK* Abstract There is an increasingly vociferous debate about whether population growth is relevant to climate mitigation policy. The production of scientific knowledge about this relationship, its use in policy and public arenas, and its interpretation by numerous third parties thereafter present a political and ethical conundrum in which normative values are easily hidden. Rather than assess the evidence for the contribution population growth might make to future greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and the implicit or explicit population policy implications therein, this paper engages with a sociological analysis of the process of knowledge production to reveal why the controversy persists. This paper seeks to equip policy makers with a theoretical framework through which to navigate such values and thus overcome the apparent policy bind on the issue.

1. Introduction There is an increasingly vociferous debate about whether population growth is relevant to climate mitigation policy. Proponents offer evidence both for1,2,3 and against4,5 the claim that current rates of population growth will make emissions abatement harder to achieve. The voices from either side of the debate are related to the well-trodden ground of Malthusian theory, around which each camp seems to be recasting their boundary lines. In considering the evidence for and against the role of population growth in aggravating greenhouse gas (GHG) emission rates and the policy implications therein, it is helpful to critically engage with the processes of science and “knowledge production.” Such engagement can expose what is “concealed in the natural discourse of science” and how it is concealed in order to better understand why the controversy persists.6 This paper distinguishes between science produced upstream and downstream. Upstream science is commonly understood to be produced in the laboratory or field and to originate from a “pure science environment” which is perceived as apolitical. Downstream science is more explicitly related to a policy environment. The normative assumptions underlying not only scientific claims made upstream, but also importantly the use of those claims downstream by policy actors and politically situated advocates, will determine the nature of the debate. The links *

email: L.carver@ids.ac.uk

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between demographic change and climatic change are complex, varied, and uncertain. Population growth, in addition to demographic dynamics like migration, age structure and household size, may or may not be relevant to global environmental change. For the purposes of this paper I have narrowed the discussion to the link between a single demographic variable- population growth and its causal relationship to climate change. Sequitur to this claim are the implicit or explicit policy repercussions around the perceived value of family planning as a means to lower fertility rates and slow population growth. The sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK) works well in conditions of controversy, particularly where it is possible to distinguish the agency of the scientist from that of the social scientist and where there is public policy at stake.19 The controversy over whether population growth is linearly connected to increasing GHG emissions is therefore an apt dispute through which sociological approaches to scientific knowledge can be explored. This is especially true given that acceptance of this scientific claim would likely justify policy that seeks to slow global population growth rates. Efforts to include population issues into the climate change policy dialogue are complicated by the uneven global distribution of energy consumption and GHG emissions. This underpins the politicization of scientific knowledge produced on the relationship between population and climate change. The linear and causal role of population growth in GHG emissions is contested because the countries that have the highest per capita emissions often have relatively slow population growth or population stabilization. The largest growth in population, however, occurs in the some of the world‟s poorest countries, which contribute a tiny per capita fraction of the GHG emissions of a rich industrialised economy. Therefore the production of scientific knowledge about this relationship, its use in policy and public arenas and interpretation by numerous third parties thereafter presents a political and ethical conundrum in which normative values are, consciously or not, easily hidden. The controversy about population and climate change makes for an appropriate focus of analysis not least because it stems from a much longer history of polarized opinion and debate over the relevance for and impact of global population growth, but also because of its highly political nature and growing visibility in public and policy discourse. Testament to its position amongst political and public priorities is its appearance in the United Nations “State of the World Population” Report: Climate Change, Women and Population in November 2009, as a subject that was discussed at the Cop15 climate change conference in Copenhagen in 2009, and a topic with increasingly frequent media coverage. The primary section of this paper will illustrate the broader context in which this debate is framed. The subsequent sections explore sociological approaches to the analysis of scientific discourse to assess Wynne‟s claim that “normative assumptions are concealed in the natural discourse of science.”6 I have divided the knowledge production or research sites into two categories: upstream and downstream.6 Using as an upstream research site I will examine the work of earth scientist Brian O‟Neill who has completed projections to 2100 as evidence linking

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population and climate change. Sequitur to upstream analysis I have bracketed the work of two key actors with diametrically opposed positions claiming naturalized scientific knowledge. Sociological analysis of these actors‟ positions may expose certain underlying cognitive social constructs. I consider the policy papers from a Washington based non-governmental organization (NGO) in support of making a causal link between population growth and GHG emissions – Population Action International (PAI). In opposition to the claim that population growth is a driver of climate change is the paper “The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change,” published in the journal Urbanization and Environment in 2009 by David Satterthwaite.5 Satterthwaite represents the London based think tank International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). Henceforth both parties will be referenced as PAI and Satterthwaite. It is necessary to draw a distinction between upstream and downstream science because of a divergence in the strategies employed in the way knowledge is constructed at both sites. It also highlights the important nexus in the science-policy interface. Knowledge produced within a “pure” science environment upstream, which is perceived as apolitical, in fact employs certain strategies to both maintain authority and simultaneously engage with policy. Downstream knowledge production that is more explicitly related to a policy environment also proves a critical point for research. My analysis of downstream science shows that it will appropriate, reproduce or distort upstream science for its own political ends. This paper supports the notion that to differing degrees, and through varied strategies, the knowledge produced both upstream and downstream is a hybrid of both social and scientific considerations in line with the realist constructivist school of thinking.7 The prospect of such acknowledges the presence of political and value based inputs affecting research outcomes that claim authority in explaining the natural world. In the context of contentious issues, with clear opposing sides to the debate, combatants “have frequently asserted that science compels their favorable political perspective.”8 With consensus that science is an outcome of complex social process, at least amongst those that study the issue sociologically, the question is how exactly can science construction be characterized and explained? However, the question addressed here is less about whether non-science makes its way into scientific claims, since this is apparent by the nature and persistence of controversy and deliberation. Rather, the central question is how the policy bind may be navigated in the context of multiple policy options, uncertainty and contestation. The debate about population and climate change appears as a deadlock until we recognize the driving values underpinning each opponent‟s reasoning. Such acknowledgement would help policy makers and donors steer through these values to arrive at outcomes which are balanced and well informed†. †

My analysis stems from the experience of working in an advocacy environment for two years principally developing messages that directly support the connection between global population growth and climate change. I argue that presently I am adequately distant to maintain a good sense of neutrality, though, as is the case with making scientific claims, in the case of this paper transparency is vital.

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2. Population Policy in the 21st: context of the debate Population trends today are a highly contested issue that crop up in a range of related debates: climate change, development, environmental sustainability, and in the case of the advanced industrial nations in Europe and Japan, aging. While many in the field are familiar with the history of global population policy, few working outside of it know of the critical paradigm shift that underpinned the rags to riches story of family planning services in global development resourcing. At a pivotal period in the aftermath of the International Conference for Population and Development in Cairo in 1994, family planning services and budgets were assimilated into the broader framework of reproductive health, emphasizing overall health and reproductive wellbeing. Yet family planning services and commodity resourcing as a proportion of total population expenditure globally has dropped by more than 30% in real terms over the past ten years.3 In addition to a conservative political environment and other religious and cultural resistance, family planning commodities were cut back in favor of alternative donor causes of the day like HIV/AIDS. Thus advocacy groups like Population Action International, though concerned with broader goals of reproductive health, privilege family planning amongst advocacy efforts that utilize the population paradigm. The question is hence whether the ascendency of climate research has presented a golden opportunity for family planning advocates to refocus and leverage policy priorities around the magnetism and omnipotent draw of climate change discourse. While recognizing this might be the case, supporters persist with the rationale that in a context of fierce competition for scarce development resources it would make sense to invest in those that offer multiple long and short term benefits, which, it is argued, family planning does.1,2,9

2. Upstream Science In order to appreciate the normative aspects behind the truth claims of the population-climate debate we must move upstream to the point of knowledge production within the science research community. As a primary point of analysis I use as a research site earth scientist Brian O‟Neill, and the book he authored with colleagues at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), “Population and Climate Change.”2 O‟Neill‟s work and its authoritative nature have great relevance for knowledge producers and users downstream amongst NGOs and policy makers. O‟Neill‟s modification of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change‟s (IPCC 2000) population and greenhouse gas emission projections until 2100 using sensitivity testing is the only work of its kind, at least in terms of methodological scope and rigor. Ravetz (1973) introduced the notion of “regulatory science” which is different from academic science, since it is made useful for policy makers rather than

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academics.10 Chubin and Restivo (1983) propose that experts will adapt their messages according to their specific audiences; for example whether they are speaking or writing for a specialized professional audience or an open public one. 7 This is an apt methodological framework to apply to the work of Brian O‟Neill. O‟Neill writes for both academic and policy audiences and also speaks at a range of events, which are invariably hosted by policy orientated organizations. The difference in this case is O‟Neill‟s willingness to engage in policy recommendations, based upon both the demands of the scientific world and the policy world. In the year 2000 work “Population and Climate Change” he asserts, “Whether one would wish to select policies that affect population from a menu of choices is a question we are not yet prepared to answer.”2 Yet stresses an alternative position in writing a “view point” for the journal Global Environmental Change: “…slower population growth would make climate problem easier to solve, and capturing these long term benefits requires investments in population policies in the immediate future.”2 This is not to necessarily criticize O‟Neill‟s oscillation. As Irwin et al. noted, “Science in meeting the demands of policy has to transgress its own cognitive boundaries”, that is, it has to make “predictions in the face of uncertainties”11 The world of policy looks to experts to participate. Arguably in this case O‟Neill is best qualified to do so because he is adept at acknowledging uncertainty and complexity: “While we arrive at this conclusion based on a very simple model: a number of ad hoc calculations suggest the result is probably robust…”2 The elegant logic of win/ win principles found in the reasoning O‟Neill offers, where family planning is a low cost yet underfunded intervention offering multiple benefits for development indicators in the short run and climate mitigation, in the long run is perhaps too tempting to resist. O‟Neill however takes care to emphasize that “while analyses have shown that slower population growth can substantially reduce emissions in the long run, they have also concluded that it is no panacea.”2 Thus, O‟Neill reinforces his authority to make policy claims with the best possible knowledge available of the complex broader picture. Whether reassuring or disturbing, it is important to appreciate the extent to which statistical projections based on regression analyses such as O‟Neill‟s have already departed from the strict Mertonian norms or unquestioningly reliable “normal” science Khun outlined. “Inherent limitations” exist “in principle of that knowledge, however competently produced.”6 Funtowicz and Ravitz (1993) in their discussion of methodological shortcomings of regressions reference Bailar, stating, “…random variability- the stuff of p-values and confidence limits, is simply swamped by other kinds of uncertainties…”12 Challenges to the authority of statistical certainty are not un-documented: Leamer (1983) cites, Black (1982), Pratt and Schlaifer (1979) and Sims (1982).13 The question hence is how to manage this uncertainty?6 When uncertainty is apparent, there is a necessity for a more discursive, democratic kind of knowledge creation to take root, where uncertainty is acknowledged and diversity is embraced.12 O‟Neill manages this concept well by proposing that population considerations simply feature in the broad range of policy options for climate mitigation, amongst others

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that would have a much more direct and urgent impact such as addressing energy use. The trouble lies in the way this knowledge may be used in more politicized environments further downstream.

3. Downstream: Knowledge Production and Use At the upstream end of this science debate, controversy does not emerge as a particularly pertinent issue. As mentioned, O‟Neill‟s work has not yet been subjected to a rigorous counter study, and therefore remains uncontested by a similar methodological analysis claiming alternative conclusions. The point of controversy is located further downstream of the scientific community in the protracted debate amongst policy advisors in NGOs, in this case that of PAI and Satterthwaite.1,5 I turn now to analysis of both sides in this debate to expose where each is influenced by framing assumptions and the strategies employed to conceal a hybrid of both scientific and normative values. Sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK) requires analysts to subject both sides of the controversy to the “same repertoire of conceptual tools” in a process of symmetry.14 Chubin and Restivo (1983), as the earliest protagonists of the realistconstructivist approach, describe “…deep seated, emotionally held beliefs about the social world and human behaviour- that researchers bring to bear in the interpretation of data, it should be instructive to observe what is claimed by whom, and to what apparent end…”7 Using the realist constructivist epistemology, which sees science as a hybrid between scientific and social processes, as a guiding framework, I restrict my analysis to three processes.7 These are: 1. Were priorities set? What are the dominant narratives? 2. Which methodology was accepted? Were inputs selective? Which data was revealed and which concealed? 3. Which policies were endorsed and which rejected and why?

3.1. Priorities and dominant narratives Population Action International is existentially bound to arguing that global population growth should be taken seriously by policy makers. Even apart from this specific issue, the value of advocacy or pressure groups should be questioned, with the prospect for distorted or exaggerated messages. Policy process analysts call attention to the philosophical and historical roots that form the basis of different narratives, which would explain why some “stick.”15 The problem framing in this instance is related to high fertility†, but the problem is in fact more complex. This narrative incorporates numerous ancillary aspects and has evolved according to paradigm shifts like that which occurred after the Cairo Programme of Action, which †

The UN defines high fertility as a total fertility rate above 4.5 children per woman.

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introduced the concept of human rights as primary rationale for family planning provisions. PAI exist to do what they do – provide family planning and reproductive health services. Problem framing in respect to this topic will unavoidably privilege these priorities over others unrelated to their work. The problem framing in this instance fits neatly with the policy options embedded in the institutional capacity of donor agencies, NGOs, and public health departments. Commentators argue family planning provision is tried and tested, and thus policy options must overcome barriers and scale up resources to fund these provisions.16 In opposition, Satterthwaite considers the standpoint of Betsy Hartman (1998). He draws from her the notion that “the implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change” is to maintain a focus on the gross disparities of consumption patterns around the world, which an emphasis on population growth and aggregate human numbers can serve to dilute.10 A simplistic focus on population in the climate change debate can be highly depoliticizing that both persecutes and demonizes those that bear least responsibility, namely the millions across the developing world living in zones of high population growth and widespread energy poverty. Thus, evidence in this case, must be assembled and published as a counter narrative to the popular Malthusian reasoning, which posits that aggregate human numbers denude and pilfer natural resources faster than they can be replenished. Malthus famously predicted in the 17th century that current rates of population growth would lead to widespread war and famine because food production would not keep up. He was subsequently disproved because of advances in technology that led to the green revolution. Nevertheless the same principle is popularly drawn upon in a range of environmental debates, and can easily gain momentum as what Keely and Scoones (2005) propose is an entrenched policy metanarrative.17 10

3.2. Which methodology, inputs and data? Methodological comparisons between the two papers are more elusive than identifying competing priorities. PAI‟s data is more or less drawn directly from the studies O‟Neill and colleagues completed on the topic. Indeed, it is naturalized to the extent that the co-author of PAI paper is in fact one of such colleagues. At the time of writing Leiwen Jiang, a colleague of O‟Neill‟s, was temporarily stationed in a senior advisory position at PAI. Such recruitment of expertise exposes another important way in which knowledge may be legitimized. Satterthwaite does not make reference to O‟Neill‟s study directly, but only indirectly through referencing PAI. Instead, Satterthwaite draws together new quantitative evidence to support the counter argument, though not without some serious methodological flaws. Difficulties admittedly lie with all econometric regressions and statistical analyses,12,13 given that parameters are set and variables, with differing degrees of uncertainty, are chosen by the analyst. Social externalities can find their way into the most highly regarded statistical models, such as the IPCC climate projection.18 Nevertheless, Satterthwaite draws together data, using a bracketed time frame of the past (i.e. disregarding any implications for the future).5

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Furthermore, he draws simplistic inferences between associated variables, which, despite any apparent misgivings in regression analysis, is a highly questionable way of either proving or disproving causality. Satterthwaite employs a strategy that deliberately misuses time shown in the following extract: “A review of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) emissions levels for nations, and how they changed between 1980 ad 2005 (and also between 1950 and 1980) shows little association between nations with rapid population growth; indeed it is mostly nations with very low emissions per person (and often only slowly growing emissions) that have the highest population growth rates.”5 PAI, referencing evidence from O‟Neill, use data to consider the relationship well into the future – between 1990 and 2100 – and build on the IPCC framework. A simple review of past relationships offers little to explain the future in a fast changing and dynamic world. A primary point that proponents of the links between population and climate change would make is that while population growth alone is not enough to aggravate climate change, the places with high rates of growth are also forecasted to experience the highest economic and emissions growth rates into the 21st century. Satterthwaite disregards the relevance of this point for the future change in global economic factors based upon “the failure of more than 50 years of development,”5 which both consigns hundreds of millions to sustained poverty for the next 50 years, and undermines the wider goals of the IIED.

3.3. Which policies are endorsed and which rejected? Policy disputes are arguably at the heart of the controversy over population and climate change. The stakes are high, not only for the funding of a lagging sector, but indeed for the human rights and well-being of perhaps hundreds of millions across the world. There are risks involved with the implications of PAI‟s messages, inherently benign as I believe them to be. Yet overlap does exist between the policy recommendations from PAI and Satterthwaite; both endorse high quality, voluntary reproductive health supplies including family planning. Both condemn the coercive population policies of the past. Satterthwaite however, emphasizes primary importance of addressing disproportionately high rates of per capita consumption and vitally prioritizing energy policy for those that currently live in “energy poverty.”5 This is relevant because it focuses on a different emphasis to PAI, and is primarily associated with political and social factors of inequality. While PAI is referenced in the paper‟s bibliography, it is more generally alluded to in policy discussion as “…those demanding large reductions in population numbers as the only possibility of a „sustainable‟ future…”5 This inadvertently sets up a straw man argument. O‟Neill is careful to emphasize the more direct and important ways to address GHG emissions through energy policy, but recognizes multiplicity of pathways to achieve emission goals and hence the importance of population in a long range view. PAI are less careful with downplaying the importance of population, and in fact deliberatively talk it up, as I have mentioned

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they are existentially bound to do. Nevertheless, PAI do not call for “reduced human numbers”, but rather the satisfaction of “unmet demand” in family planning to meet human rights entitlements, which would aid prevention of unplanned pregnancies.1 The window through which we can reconcile these differences lies in recognition of the rationale each side draw on. Hartman, whose work Satterthwaite references, asserts that “though yet to be implemented effectively through lack of funds and political will, the Cairo consensus has provided renewed legitimacy to neoMalthusianism in liberal and progressive circles.”19 Thus Hartman acknowledges the lack of political will to adequately fund the Cairo Programme of Action and hence exposes in her condemnation the rationale behind the persistent advocacy efforts to draw attention to this policy arena. At the heart of this controversy is in fact a problem with instrumentalizing the worth of investing in reproductive rights, which we can see is instead disguised as a controversy about scientific fact. This is true in the population-climate debate where both sides underplay the importance of the other‟s policy principles and instead advance claims and counter claims predicated on “scientific fact.”

4. Competing Ideologies and Policy Deadlock Responses to and interpretations of Robert Malthus‟ essay in 1784 have a long and varied history, embraced by a colorful range of protagonists spanning Darwin, Nazi Germany, and eugenicists.20 Satterthwaite draws heavily on the work of Hartman, a women‟s rights advocate and vociferously persuasive opponent of Malthusianism.5 Hartman‟s work is laced with the emotive language of racism and white supremacy, drawing on the most extreme political ideologies to denounce the 17th century economic theory. Hartman discusses contemporary socio-political debates pivoting on Malthusian reasoning in the USA which, it is argued frequently, derive from a fear of the “other” reduced to an “us vs. them” narrative where the “Global South represents one big destructive force.”19 Arguably, however mainstream debates about climate change issues all stem from a basic sense of Malthusianism, applicable to anyone in the world that consumes energy, and the notion that humans unsustainably use the natural environment, hence dissolving the simplistic division between North and South. This is seen played out by the strong emphasis on demand side issues of energy quantity as well as the supply side quality of environmentally sound technologies in general climate change discourse. One of the major opposition arguments to Malthusian reasoning, explicit in Hartman‟s helpful proposition, is that it is inherently and dangerously depoliticizing. Discussions drawn from Metha and Millstone in a forthcoming book on “Scarcity” describe the economic, social and political constructions of scarcity that are all too often and simplistically blamed on the growth in human numbers.4,19,21 Malthusian framing of environmental problems has the tendency to overlook critical distributional factors of inequality and injustice. Additionally, there is distrust for the exaggeration of the efficacy of family planning services to bring down fertility levels, in place of vital and favorable broader contextual factors like improved poverty alleviation, education and infant mortality indicators.4

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Numerous agendas are conflated into contemporary Malthusian arguments ranging from environmental claims, issues in women‟s health, socio-political arguments involving security and economics, as well as arguments from the far right. It is misleading however for Hartman to categorize them all as the latter. The difficulty is that a poignant issue at the micro level (with repercussions at meso and macro levels) is that high fertility is strongly associated with high maternal mortality, low female education, and poverty.9,22,23 Mirroring this observation in essence and message is the fact that no country bar the oil rich Arab states have risen from poverty while maintaining high rates of fertility.24 The message in this instance is not always necessarily on macro population growth trajectories. Embracing Malthusian arguments can provide politically catchy slogans to persuade senior policy makers to invest in sexual and reproductive health rights of women normally with no access (on a human rights basis). Such a strategy confers with analysis of policy processes, which argues that complex issues are often simplified to tell and sell a story to donors and wider audiences.15 Important for this issue are the dangers that instrumentalist approaches present for uncertain and indirect knock-on effects at a later time. Eyben and colleagues discuss the instrumentalist strategies employed at policy level to juggle different meanings for women‟s empowerment, “strategically exploiting the concept‟s polysemic nature to keep that agenda alive.”25 Indeed, in this spirit, Victoria Tauli-Corpuz, chairperson of the UN Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues comments that undertaking centralized ways of controlling population growth for the sake of climate change would result “in an even greater mess.”3 Policy processes rarely represent the views of all stakeholders and are likely to exclude those of either the poor or marginalized.15 Thus, there is an apparent danger in mainstreaming the population-climate rationale, not least because it will focus policy impacts on those already poor and marginalized but is simultaneously less likely include them in process. PAI and Satterthwaite harbor different beliefs in light of their occupational interests. These translate into scientific assertions that are selectively compiled to act as the vehicle for their idea of what appropriate policy should look like. PAI have a concern for shortfalls in family planning resources, while Satterthwaite is interested in the debilitating levels of inequality in energy consumption.1,5 I reject Bloor‟s (1976) assertion that sociologists of science should be neutral and impartial to truth-value claims.26 Instead it may be useful to identify where the sociologists engaged in deconstructive processes can become meaningful contributors to the scientific discourse by exposing and advancing issues that the scientists themselves are unwilling to or unable to acknowledge. Jasanoff‟s (1990) model of science-informed policy construction, deconstruction and reconstruction makes this point.27 After the deconstructive process through cross examination and SSK methods, policy makers are able to rebuild or reconstruct the policy implications with a broader understanding of both the scientific and non-scientific inputs. Through unwrapping some of the deliberate methodological approaches, framing assumptions, and political agendas, driving the controversy between

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Satterthwaite and PAI,1,5 a clearing appears through which progress in advancing the debate seems possible.

5. Conclusion This paper suffers from a lack of directly comparable processes of upstream scientific knowledge production. Interestingly none of the actors used in this analysis fits neatly into one or other class of knowledge producer or knowledge user, which to an extent confuses the categories of upstream and downstream science and the notion of blurred boundaries between science and polic.27 An integrated sociological approach which examines the important “framing assumptions” that shape the ways that science is constructed and conducted upstream and reproduced and appropriated downstream in policy debates can helpfully “deconstruct” and expose non-scientific or normative assumptions.28 There is a danger that certain simplistic meta-narratives could come to dominate macro policy discourse. In the case of population and climate change the risk would be jeopardizing more than two decades of campaigns and advocacy ensuring that reproductive health services, in particular family planning are high quality, culturally appropriate and driven by human rights justifications. Conversely, however, climate change is caused by a complex interaction of dynamic, long term and varied factors. Therefore, it would seem foolish to entirely disregard the importance of demographic trajectories over the next 90 years. It is not contested that climate policy will necessarily be multifarious, but at the same time the necessity of visibly communicating a cause risks emphasizing the issue to the point of eclipsing all else. This paper seeks to lift the veil or scientific certainty from the debate, and urges those that engage in it to recognize the equal presence of politics, nuance and complexity in the story. For actors at high policy levels facing numerous competing priorities to do so is likely extremely difficult and uncertain. Every effort should be made to normalize realist constructivist views presented in this paper so that they may also appear with the frequency that simplified policy narratives do. Through different strategies and to different degrees scientific knowledge produced both upstream and downstream is a hybrid of scientific and non-scientific solutions, each framed according to particular narratives or problem setting. Thus, in as much as the population-climate argument subscribes to a dominant narrative premised on Malthusian principles, that which Satterthwaite advances provides a valuable counter-narrative, which exposes issues that the narrative risks silencing.5 Debate is necessary, but to prevent a sustained controversy, so is its deconstruction. Indeed it does seem that, particularly downstream the normative values are so pronounced, there is little scope for reconciling either side pedaling the controversy. This essay argues that the capacity for such reconciliation lies amongst the best efforts of the sociologist.

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End Notes 1

Hardee, K. & L. Jiang (2009) “How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?” Washington: Population Action International

O‟Neill, B. C. (2000) “Population and Greenhouse Gas Emissions” in O‟Neill, B L. F MacKellar & W. Lutz (eds) Population and Climate Change New York: University Cambridge Press: 113- 139

UNFPA (2009) “State of the World Population: Facing a Changing World: Women, Population and Climate” New York: United Nations

Hartman, B. (1998) Reproductive Rights and Wrongs: The Global Politics of Population Control London: Harper and Row: 19-26

Sattethwaite, D. (2009) “The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change” in Environmental and Urbanization “ Vol. 21, No.2: 545-567

Wynne, B. (1992) “Uncertainty and environmental learning. Reconceiving science and policy in the preventative paradigm.” in Global Environmental Change. Vol. 2, No. 2: 111-117

Chubin, D, E. & S. Restivo (1983) “The Mooting of Science Studies: Research Programmes and Science Policy” in K. D. Knorr- Cetine & M. Mulkay (eds.) Science Observed London: Sage: 53-83

Pielke 2004: 415

Cleland, J, S. Bernstein, A. Ezeh, A, Faundes, A, Glasier, J. Innis (2006) “Family Planning: The Unfinished Agenda” in The Lancet Vol. 368: 1810-1827

Ravetz, J. “Regulatory Science- Towards a Sociological Framework” Futures Vol. 21, No.1: 17-31.

Irwin, A.,H. Rothenstein, S. Yearly & E. McCarthy (1997) “Regulatory ScienceTowards a Sociological Framework” in Futures Vol, 29, No. 1: 17-31

Funtowizc, S. O & J. R. Ravetz (1993) “ Science for the Post-Normal Age” in Futures Vol. 25, No. 7: 739-755

Leamer, E. E. (1983) “Let‟s Take the Con out of Econometrics” in The American Economic Review, Vol. 73, No. 1: 31-43

Martin, B. & E. Richards (2005) “ Scientific Knowledge, Controversy, and Public Decision Making” Chapter 22 in S. Jasanoff et al. (eds) Handbook of Science and Technology Studies London: Sage: 506-527

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Wolmer, W. et al (2006) “Understanding Policy Processes, A review of IDS research on the environment” Birghton: Institute of Development Studies

Campbell, M., N.N. Sahin-Hodoglugil & M. Potts (2006) “ Barriers to Fertility Regulation: A Review of the Literature” in Studies in Family Planning Vol. 37, No. 2: 87-98

Keely, J & I. Scoones (2003) “Understanding Environmental Policy Processes: a Conceptual Map” Chapter 2 in Keely and Scoones (eds) Understanding Environmental Policy Processes: Cases from Africa, London: Earthscan pp 21-39

Sarewitz, D. (2004) “How science makes environmental controversies worse” in Environmental Science and Policy Vol. 7: 385-403

Hartman, B (2010, forthcoming) “Ghosts of Malthus: Narratives and Mobilizations of Scarcity in the US Political Context”

Milstone, E. (2010 forthcoming) “Chronic Hunger- A Problem of Scarcity of Inequity”

Mehta, L. (2000) “Water for the Twenty-First Century: Challenges and Misconceptions. IDS Working Paper 111. Brighton: Institute of Development Studies

Birdsall N, Kelley A.C., Sinding S.W., (eds.) (2001) Population matters: demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world. Oxford: Oxford University Press

Bongaarts, J. and S. Sinding (2009) “ A Response to the Critics of Family Planning Programs” in International Perspectives in Sexual and Reproductive Health Vol. 35, No. 1: 39-44

All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health (2007) “The Return of the Population Growth Factor: Its Impact on the MDGs”. Report from UK Parliamentary Hearings over 2006/2007

Eyben, R. & R. Napier-Moore (2009) “Choosing Words with Care? Shifting meanings of womens‟s empowerment in international development” in Third World Quarterly, Vol 30, No. 2: 285-300

Bloor, D. (1976) Knowledge and Social Imagery London: Routledge

Jasanoff, S. (1990) The Fifth Branch, Science Advisers as Policy Makers Massachusetts: Harvard University Press

Von Zwanenburg, P. & E. Milstone (2005) BSE: Risk Science and Governance Oxford: Oxford University Press: 28- 31

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Bibliography All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health (2007) “The Return of the Population Growth Factor: Its Impact on the MDGs”. Report from UK Parliamentary Hearings over 2006/2007 Birdsall N, Kelley A.C., Sinding S.W., (eds.) (2001) Population matters: demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world. Oxford: Oxford University Press Bloor, D. (1976) Knowledge and Social Imagery London: Routledge Bongaarts, J. and S. Sinding (2009) “ A Response to the Critics of Family Planning Programs” in International Perspectives in Sexual and Reproductive Health Vol. 35, No. 1: 39-44 Brownstein, L. (1987) “Relevance of the Rationalist/Contructivist/Relativist Controversy for the „Validation‟ of Scientific Knowledge-Claims” in Science Communication Vol. 9, No. 1: 117- 114 Campbell, M., N.N. Sahin-Hodoglugil & M. Potts (2006) “ Barriers to Fertility Regulation: A Review of the Literature” in Studies in Family Planning Vol. 37, No. 2: 87-98 Chubin, D, E. & S. Restivo (1983) “The Mooting of Science Studies: Research Programmes and Science Policy” in K. D. Knorr- Cetine & M. Mulkay (eds.) Science Observed London: Sage: 53-83 Cleland, J, S. Bernstein, A. Ezeh, A, Faundes, A, Glasier, J. Innis (2006) “Family Planning: The Unfinished Agenda” in The Lancet Vol. 368: 1810-1827 Eyben, R. & R. Napier-Moore (2009) “Choosing Words with Care? Shifting meanings of womens‟s empowerment in international development” in Third World Quarterly, Vol 30, No. 2: 285-300 Funtowizc, S. O & J. R. Ravetz (1993) “ Science for the Post-Normal Age” in Futures Vol. 25, No. 7: 739-755 Hardee, K. & L. Jiang (2009) “How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?” Washington: Population Action International Hartman, B (2010, forthcoming) “Ghosts of Malthus: Narratives and Mobilizations of Scarcity in the US Political Context” Hartman, B. (1998) Reproductive Rights and Wrongs: The Global Politics of Population Control London: Harper and Row: 19-26

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Hoepf-Young, M., K. Mogelgaard & K. Hardee (2009) “Projecting Population, Projecting Climate Change. Population in IPCC Scenarios” Washington: Population Action International Irwin, A.,H. Rothenstein, S. Yearly & E. McCarthy (1997) “Regulatory ScienceTowards a Sociological Framework” in Futures Vol, 29, No. 1: 17-31 Jasanoff, S. (1990) The Fifth Branch, Science Advisers as Policy Makers Massachusetts: Harvard University Press Jasanoff, S. S. (1987) “Contested Boundaries in Policy-Relevant Science” in Social Studies of Science, Vol. 17. No. 2: 195-230 Keely, J & I. Scoones (2003) “Understanding Environmental Policy Processes: a Conceptual Map” Chapter 2 in Keely and Scoones (eds) Understanding Environmental Policy Processes: Cases from Africa, London: Earthscan pp 21-39 Leamer, E. E. (1983) “Let‟s Take the Con out of Econometrics” in The American Economic Review, Vol. 73, No. 1: 31-43 Martin, B. & E. Richards (2005) “ Scientific Knowledge, Controversy, and Public Decision Making” Chapter 22 in S. Jasanoff et al. (eds) Handbook of Science and Technology Studies London: Sage: 506-527 Mehta, L. (2000) “Water for the Twenty-First Century: Challenges and Misconceptions. IDS Working Paper 111. Brighton: Institute of Development Studies Milstone, E. (2010 forthcoming) “Chronic Hunger- A Problem of Scarcity of Inequity” O‟Neill, B. C. (2000) “Cairo and climate change: a win-win opportunity” in Global Environmental Change, Vol. 10: 93-96 O‟Neill, B. C. (2000) “Population and Greenhouse Gas Emissions” in O‟Neill, B L. F MacKellar & W. Lutz (eds) Population and Climate Change New York: University Cambridge Press: 113- 139 Petroni, S (2008) “ An Ethical Approach to Population and Climate Change” Environmental Change and Security Programme Report. Issue 13, Washington: Woodrow Wilson Centre for Scholars Ravetz, J. “Regulatory Science- Towards a Sociological Framework” Futures Vol. 21, No.1: 17-31

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Sarewitz, D. (2004) “How science makes environmental controversies worse” in Environmental Science and Policy Vol. 7: 385-403 Sattethwaite, D. (2009) “The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change” in Environmental and Urbanization “ Vol. 21, No.2: 545-567 UNFPA (2009) “State of the World Population: Facing a Changing World: Women, Population and Climate” New York: United Nations Von Zwanenburg, P. & E. Milstone (2005) BSE: Risk Science and Governance Oxford: Oxford University Press: 28- 31 Wolmer, W. et al (2006) “Understanding Policy Processes, A review of IDS research on the environment” Birghton: Institute of Development Studies Wynne, B. (1992) “Uncertainty and environmental learning. Reconceiving science and policy in the preventative paradigm.” in Global Environmental Change. Vol. 2, No. 2: 111-117

Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, Iss. 1 (2010), Pp. 119â&#x20AC;&#x201C;133

Must Biodiversity Hot-Spots Be Social Not-Spots? Win-Win Ecology as Sustainable Social Policy Charles Geisler Development Sociology Cornell University, Ithica, NY

Abstract Reconciliation ecology, a family of socially inclusive conservation strategies that depart from traditional protected area management, is on trial. Skeptics find it problematic for a range of reasons, faulting it for lack of evidence and calling it a "bio-diversion" from the agenda of strict protected area conservation. Supporters counter that only by re-embedding conservation in human-dominated landscapes beyond protected areas will conservation succeed. The present paper builds on the work of Michael Rosenzweig, a leading example of this latter perspective, fortifying it with information from different world regions and programs. Simultaneously, I suggest that narrow reliance on formal protected areas yields conservation refugees, environmental backlash, and set-backs to sustainability efforts. Authorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Note My thanks to Paul Gellert, Riley Dunlap, Barbara Bedford, Jason Con, and the anonymous reviewers of Consilience for thoughtful comments on early drafts of this paper.

Keywords: Anthropocene, win-win ecology, protected areas, greenlining, human displacement, conservation refugees, sustainability

1. Introduction The Anthropocene is the contemporary geological era said to be replacing the Holocene era of the past 10,000 years. Its defining feature is the humandomination of nature and, to the concern of many, the risk of overstepping the planetary boundaries or thresholds upon which life itself depends. Many authorities argue that there are points of no return with respect to global soil erosion, water pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, carbon dependency, and the overconsumption of renewable as well as non-renewable resources. Last year the distinguished Stockholm Resilience Center assembled thirty scientists to consider which planetary thresholds are at greatest risk of Anthropocene violation and catastrophy for planetary life. These boundaries, according a summary account published in Naturei, are the vital signs of planetary wellness; if neglected, we threaten the earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capacity to regulate itself. They are also the drivers for a planetary recovery strategy.

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Of the twenty-five boundaries identified in Stockholm, nine were considered priorities and prominently featured biodiversity and human land uses. This paper explores a formulation that seeks to reconcile these two planetary boundaries, often thought to be irreconcilable. The formulation is called win-win ecology by its intellectual parent, Michael Rosenzweigii,iii and others.iv Rosenzweig’s framework integrates biodiversity and land uses outside of parks and protected areas. His work is fertile with sustainability insights. It prompts anyone with conservation inclinations to reflect on how we construct ―nature,‖ where we allocate our resources, and on this question: is win-win ecology really doable? Can we protect biological hotspots without creating ―social not-spots‖ through evictions and displacements of human residents and resource users? In answering this question, I will expand on the affirmative evidence Rosenzweig himself provides and critically consider some of the conservation biology thinking that finds the win-win logic specious. Following a brief overview of win-win ecology and its detractors, I offer examples of its growth and operation in different world regions and suggest that win-win ecology is expanding in both scale and sophistication. In my view, the conservation project of the future must be an inclusionary project. Though not a panacea, win-win ecology avoids various dilemmas of narrowly conceived biological conservation—that I refer to as ―greenlining‖—and holds out hope for both social and biological sustainability.

2. Win-Win Ecology Rosenzweig’s core argument is compelling. He concurs with other conservation biologist that the state of planet, biologically speaking, is precarious: 5 percent or less of the world’s terrestrial habitats retain near-pristine quality despite on-going human efforts to lock these and other habitats into parks and protected areas (―reservation ecology‖). Yet even if this 5 percent could be saved, he argues, the remaining 95 percent would remain severely compromised. Indeed, even if conservationists use standard reservation ecology together with restoration ecology to achieve their ends, we will be left with biological ―crumbs,‖ that is, small islands of biodiversity precariously connected (or not) with conservation corridors. We are also apt to be left, as a consequence of lines on maps declaring sites as parks and protected areas, with a signal to nonconservationists that they are free to develop unprotected areas (the majority of land and habitat) with little environmental stewardship. Conservationists should instead turn their attention to reconciliation ecology and seek new ways to stop short of the biodiversity threshold emphasized by the Stockholm Resilience Center. This perspective aligns well with the species-area relationship ―law‖ of ecology: large islands (whether real islands or park ―islands‖) support more species than smaller ones. In other words, biodiversity increases with area.v Win-win ecology maps cogently onto this time-tested conservation logic, yet moves beyond the logic of green garrisons in a sea of humanity. Immense biodiversity persists beyond formally protected areas and awaits conservation beyond the green line of park boundaries. To the extent that much biodiversity thrives in zones where food is

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produced, food security and environmental security can go hand-in-hand rather than compete for space, energy, and stewardship. Rosenzweig makes this point in numerous ways, suggesting that many systems (marine, terrestrial, wetland, freshwater, etc.) can service human needs and, with certain caveats, offer conservation opportunities as well. And, as noted in the Millennium Environmental Assessment,vi global climate change (the lead concern for the Stockholm scientists) is indifferent to park boundaries, making new conservation strategies imperative. Still, some conservationists remain unconvinced, and see the solution to dwindling biodiversity as expanding protected areas to 50 percent of the earth’s surface.vii,viii Others accuse Rosenzweig of poorly supporting his win-win contentions.ix One reviewer of his work, for example, asserts that reconciliation ecology is problematic and that Rosenzweig is overzealous in what he includes in his model. Further attention must be paid to vexing issues of invasive species, species de-isolation, and species survival outside of natural ranges. Unless these challenges are met, the reviewer charges, reconciliation ecology risks being a ―biodiversion.‖ Others chide Rosenzweig for unbridled idealism, suggesting that his examples are ―selective, small scale, sparse, and shaky.‖x Rosensweig is faulted for underreporting actual successes, for being ―Americocentric,‖ and for biasing his case towards temperate zone ecologies. Still others note the win-win solutions are not workable in all situations. DeFries and colleagues identify both win-win and win-lose cases, the latter being those in which restrictions on land uses outside protected areas yield ―nonlinear‖ (disproportionately small) biodiversity benefits in protected zones or beyond them.xi Net loss is a constant risk in poorer societies and the inherent complexities of ecosystems, including the interactions between biotic, abiotic, and human components on different scales, ―foreclose simple prescriptions.‖xii But skeptics may do a disservice to sustainability potential of win-win ecology with their parries. In light of recent documentation, Rosenzweig’s logic appears to be growing in stature, realism, and large-scale application rather than the reverse. Today, few would concur that reconciliation ecology is hypothetical or limited to temperate zones. As for naïve optimism, the same may be said of Lovelock’sxiii ―Gaia‖ and Wilson’sxiv ―biophilia‖ hypotheses, and win-win ecology may be the impetus for important new discourses, behavioral changes, and collective actions to protect the global commons. Nor should the shortcomings of near exclusive reliance on reservation conservation, be minimized.xv Rosenzweig, in the end, is not hostile to reservation and restoration ecology, only to over-dependency on them.

3. Protecting beyond the Protected: Farms and Forests Rosenzweig offers multiple examples of environmental stewardship that endure in formally unprotected landscapes. Numerous species have adapted to habitats not necessarily designed for their reproduction and survival, from patchy farm and forest landscapes to hundreds of military bases. Elsewhere, architects, planners, and everyday users of the earth’s ecosystems embed the habitat needs of non-human species into Anthropocene living spaces (rooftop gardens and urban

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forests; highway animal crossings and fish ladders; bird sanctuaries and restored wetlands; ships scuttled as ―reefs‖ and irrigation systems that host fish and migratory waterfowl, etc.). However imperfectly, we often protect genetic wealth and ecosystem function without creating parks; for Rosenzweig, the entire world is a potential ―park‖ and a site where humans and nature (itself a contested binary) can coexist. But the empirical basis of his argument would benefit from broader shoulders. A foremost instance of win-win ecology is ―eco-agriculture.‖ In 1990, Jeffrey McNeelyxvi of the World Conservation Union warned that in fifty years protected areas may indeed no longer exist. This claim rested on aggressive land clearing by landless peasants worldwide and, as if to anticipate the Stockholm findings, on the unsustainable ways humans now manage the landscapes of the world. Later, McNeely and Scherrxvii mapped the planet’s agricultural lands onto priority conservation zones and found ubiquitous overlap between the two. Of the 17,000 largest protected areas in the world, 45 percent were heavily farmed by small and marginal farmers. They concluded that the majority of the earth’s biodiversity survives in working rather than protected landscapes. Based on case studies covering over a billion acres from different world regions, they urged greater integration of agriculture and conservation for both biodiversity protection and social equity. A partnership of global environmental groups called Ecoagriculture Partners is, with joint sponsorship by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) and the Future Harvest Foundation, aggressively responding to this challenge at present.xviii, Forestry has a long history of de facto reconciliation ecology. In North America, Robert Marshall advanced the idea of transforming the United States’ National Forest system into a ―people’s forest‖ during the Great Depression.xix His vision played out in multiple-use doctrines on US Forest Service lands and, with substantial inputs from abroad, in the global agro-forestry movement that followed. Since the 1970s, agroforestry has been recognized as an effective way of integrating sustainable agriculture and silviculture,xx but also, according to research by the Biodiversity Research Group at the Oxford Center for the Environment, of protecting biodiversity.xxi Mounting evidence suggests that, in the face of global deforesting trends, that intensive and extensive forest systems can coexist,xxii,xxiii and yield environmental benefits by sequestering carbon, restoring habitat, mimicking natural forest systems, soil stabilization, watershed protection, and buffering existing protected areas.xxiv The footprint of global agroforestry far surpasses that of the world’s protected areas; the many forms of agro-forestry make estimation of its total acreage difficult to determine, but much of the 400-800 million hectares of forest owned by local communities or indigenous people worldwide is probably subject to multi-functional (conservation and extractive) use.xxv The potential is immense. On 46 percent of the world’s farmlands tree cover exceed 10 percent of the farm.xxvi Some 37 countries now participate in the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility of the World Bank.xxvii The appeal of agroforestry is signaled by the campaign to plant 5.5 billion tree seedlings during the current decade by the World Agroforestry Centre.xxviii

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3. Protecting beyond the Protected: Unnoticed Niches Another institutionalized example of reconciliation ecology is found in cultural parks and landscapes and is markedly different from protected areas qua parks. In North America cultural park thinking dates back to George Catlin’s early proposal for an interior zone for nature and Native American culturesxxix; today, 300 noncontiguous Indian reservations comprise just under 100 million acres and mix conservation with living culture.xxx A subset of these, a consortium of 57 Native American governments, operates an Inter-Tribal Bison Cooperative to foster prairie ecosystems and buffalo for both tourism and consumption. Closer to Catlin’s vision, a vast ―Buffalo Commons‖ of 140,000 square miles (parts of 10 states) has been proposed as a recovery strategy for Great Plains people and ecosystems.xxxi,xxxii Ted Turner, one of the largest private landowners in the United States, owns over 2 million acres of private land and uses it for recreation, hunting, and de facto wildlife sanctuaries, including the nation’s largest buffalo herd.xxxiii Cultural parks and landscapes are expanding in the eastern United States as well and include the 26 million-acre Northern Forest (spanning portions of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York), the million-acre New Jersey-New York Highlands zone, and the Pinelands National Reserve of New Jersey, which exceeds a million acres. Some 40 percent of New Jersey is in human-inhabited protected area status, affirming claims by Rosenzweig and others that valued biodiversity exists in urban and semi-urban zones.xxxiv Globally, nearly 150 global cities are located in or adjacent to the planet’s largest 25 biodiversity hotspots,xxxv underscoring the challenge of finding conservation paradigms that don’t limit biodiversity to ―wilderness.‖ Cultural landscapes that provide a degree of protection for nature are expanding in many parts of the world. In 1972 the General Conference of UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) adopted the World Heritage Convention conserving sites of outstanding natural or cultural importance and today has almost 900 properties in 148 countries.xxxvi These cultural landscapes range from the rice terraces of the Philippine Cordilleras to the cedar forests in Lebanon and agricultural systems in the high Andes. England, Italy, France, and Austria offer a variant of cultural parks (―regional parks‖) with twin cultural and conservation objectives.xxxvii And in Britain and France, ―national parks‖ support human settlement, farming, forestry, and commerce while emphasizing cultural preservation. Though human densities therein are low, overall resident populations are sizeable: 316,000 for Britain and 715,000 for France (Table 1). Outside its national parks, Britain has used public subsidies since the 1990s to ―encourage environmental amenities.‖ Pretty notes that over 8000 commons still exist in England and Wales (covering .5 million HA),xxxviii a tribute to farmers who produced win-win ecologies in the past without government subsidies and might again do so under favorable incentive structures.

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Table 1: Selected Peopled Parks in Britain and France (circa 2000) [Britain] Area (HA) [Britain] Inhabitants* Beacon Beacons 135,000 32,000 Cairngorms 27,000 16,000 Dartmoor 94,500 33,000 Exmoor 69,000 10,500 Lake District 229,000 40,000 Loch Lomond & 186,000 15,600 The Troccachs Northumberland 103,000 2,500 North York Moors 143,000 25,000 Peak Park 140,000 40,000 Pembrokeshire Coast 58,000 22,000 Snowdonia 217,000 25,500 Yorkshire Dales 176,000 16,800 New Forest 6,600,000 n.a. [France] Amorique Ballons des Vosges Camargue Chartreuse Guyane Louir-Anjoy-Touraine Luberon Morvan

113,500 291,500 86,500 69,000 611,300 235,000 165,000 226,000

51,500 253,500 8,000 35,000 8,870 177,000 148,000 33,000

Population estimates for France are 1909, for Britain, 2000. Source for France: AllaliPuz, Bechaux and Jenkins (2003-22). Source for Britain: 2000 Population Census. Another dramatic and under-referenced example of reconciliation ecology exists in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) protected area classification system. The IUCN hierarchy contains six categories. The first four conform to Rosenzweig’s notion reservation ecology and exclude most human uses. The remaining two blur the distinction between in-situ and ex-situ conservation and present degrees of reconciliation ecology. Category V (protected landscape/seascape) extends to areas where ―the interaction of people and nature over time has produced an area of distinct character with significant aesthetic, ecological, and/or culture value, and often with high biological diversity.‖xxxix There are 7,000 protected areas in this IUCN category extending to every biome. Category VI (Managed Resource Protected Areas) are areas ―containing predominantly unmodified natural systems, managed to ensure long-term protection and maintenance of biological diversity, while providing at the same time a sustainable flow of natural products and services to meet community needs.‖ Though few in number, these are among the largest protected areas in the world,xl and of increasing importance to IUCN as an Anthropocene conservation strategy.xli IUCN’s PARKS magazine now publishes

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special issues on bioregionalism, populated ―hotspots‖ and landscape protection in areas of human settlement. Category VI was added to the IUCN classification largely because of the rapid growth of extractive reserves in Brazil (sites of conservation and sustainable community resource harvesting, especially latex rubber and Brazil nuts), a use wholly consistent with the definition of the category: ―Category VI protected areas conserve ecosystems and habitats, together with associated cultural values and traditional natural resource management systems. They are generally large, with most of the area in a natural condition, where a proportion is under sustainable natural resource management and where low-level non-industrial use of natural resources compatible with nature conservation is seen as one of the main aims of the area.‖xlii In addition to the 31 extractive reserves that by 2004 covered over 5 million hectares of Brazil’s interior,xliii Category VI includes village and panchayat forests in India, roadless areas on U.S. national forests, and a spectrum of multiple use areas wherein biodiversity conservation has paramount importance. Both protection and production are respected, though a minimum of two-thirds of these areas are dedicated to native species conservation. A related example of win-win ecology is the nearly 40-year old UNESCO Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Program, viewed by some as the gold standard for integrative conservation. MAB is the organizational backbone for Biosphere Reserves—the UNESCO designation for areas of shared cultural and biological value in which priority is given to sustainable living--in over half the countries of the world. From the outset, Biosphere Reserves have served as experimental laboratories for conservation and sustainable human development.xliv Each Reserve has one or several core areas that enjoy protected status. These areas are ringed by buffer zones to maintain their ecosystem functionality. Beyond the buffer areas are zones of cooperation that typically contain multifunctional human settlements. According to UNESCO, there are 553 Biosphere Reserves in 107 countries at present, encompassing well over 300 million hectares. Not all examples of win-win ecology entail vast areas, green architecture being a foremost example. As of 2004, over 47,000 green homes had been built in the U.S. alone and nearly 2000 commercial buildings were registered with the Green Building Council to be certified in the LEED system (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design). As of 2010, the Council had over 18,500 member organizations from all building sectors and routinely reviews building proposals in Canada, Australia, India, Japan, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Germany, and Guatemala (17 other countries have provisional Green Building Councils). The environmental implications of altering building design in countries such as China are monumental and include a potential 60 percent reduction in urban energy use that directly address the threshold effects listed by the Stockholm Resilience researchers by relieving pressure on rural environments affected by hydrocarbon extraction.xlv These ecological design principles originated with John Lylexlvi and include reduced light and water pollution, on-site recycling, and the mimicking of natural

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functions. They are now widely adopted across the US by state and federal agencies, by 14,000 LEED-accredited professionals, and by an expanding list of universities and commercial giants such as Wal-Mart. The greening of Wal-Mart is of interest as a market-based stimulus for conservation broadly conceived. The behemoth company has rolled out a highly fuel-efficient national truck fleet, boasts of zero waste, leverages green products and processes from its suppliers (China among them), and publically supports environmental sustainability goals.xlvii The preceding examples of win-win ecology constitute a somewhat truncated inventory of win-win experience bank. They supplement Rosenzweig’s own work and could extend, as well, to the growing foot print of conservancy land trusts which, though originally crafted to defend nature, are experimenting with working landscapes at multiple scales.xlviii,xlix They include the results Pretty (2002) found upon surveying 200 sustainable farming projects in 52 countries covering 70 million acres. He concluded that these initiatives, with proper encouragement, could feed a substantial fraction of the world’s food-insecure people without environmental harm. A quarter of a century ago Stroup and Badenl called on policy makers to use private ―endowment areas‖ to advance conservation on private lands; others see the 3000 soil conservation districts in the United States as model ―ecosystem service districts‖ in the U.S. and elsewhere.li Finally, community-based conservation, though far from problem-free, occupies many win-win niches across the globe. The foundational fact remains that rural people have conserved vast areas of land and biodiversity for their own utilitarian, cultural and spiritual needs for millennia and ‖the history of this kind of conservation…is much older than government-managed protected areas, or even the notion of the nation-state.‖lii Garret Hardinliii himself has retracted his landmark pronouncement against local commons as a conservation tragedy.

4. “Greenlining” and Its Discontents The case for win-win ecology does not exist in a vacuum. ―Greenlining,‖ or the enclosing of nature, stricto sensu, and the enforcement of enclosure through human removal, usually occurs without consent or compensation and has a troubled history when it comes to environmental justice.liv It has advanced aggressively in recent decades. Today, all but six of the world’s 200 nations have turned to parks and protected areas as conservation tools. At the time of the Durban World Parks Congress in 2003, the world’s protected areas accounted for twice the area protected areas reported at the 1992 World Congress and appeared in virtually every major biome (Table 2). A small army of committed environmentalists is working devotedly to double or triple this total yet again.lv But a pressing paradox accompanies the growth of greenlining. Were traditional park-centric conservation to indeed double or triple again, the collateral human damage would be incalculable along with potential environmental backlash. Consider the magnitude of the problem. Almost half of the world’s 17,000 largest parks and preserves are used for survival by poorly nourished communities lacking other subsistence options.lvi The insecurities of ―conservation refugee‖ status, which they will experience when displaced, is well documented,lvii,lviii but poorly understood

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Table 2: Global Land Protection by Biome, 2003 Biome (Udvardy, 1975) Tropical Humid Forests Subtropical/Temperate Rainforests/Woodlands Temperate Needle-Leaf Forests/Woodlands Tropical Dry Forests/Woodlands Temperate Broad-leaf Forests Evergreen Sclerophyllous Forests Warm Deserts/Semi-Deserts Cold-Winter Deserts Tundra Communities Tropical Grasslands Savannahs Temperate Grasslands Mixed Mountain Systems Mixed Island Systems Lake Systems Total Chape et at., 2003:29

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Extent Protected (Km2) 2,450,344 665,174

Percent Protected

1,350,221 2,210,563 856,502 399,587 2,492k,377 704,037 2,606,041 654,310 411,839 1,735,828 967,129 7,989 17,511,941

8.6 12.8 7.6 10.6 10.3 7.6 11.8 15.3 4.6 16.3 29.7 1.5 12.3

23.3 16.9

in both ecological and legal terms. Conservation refugees, surely in the millions,lix lack the protected status accorded to political refugees by the United Nations High Commission on Refugees. There is pathos as well as paradox here. A recent compilation of over 200 academic and popular studies sheds light on many unreported cases of park evictions and the traumas that accompany them.lx The victims of park displacement are often indigenous people, subsistence farmers with valuable local environmental knowledge, or commoners familiar with diverse ecosystems. Not only is there the risk of losing indigenous knowledge but, in their struggle to survive, their specialized skills (e.g., hunting, controlled burning, plant collecting) may be turned on the environments that produced them. Victims of greenlining at times protest their security loss by extirpating endangered species, poaching, or destroying trophy species of the rich.lxi Nor does the backlash against nature come only from displaced victims of greenlininglxii--it can arise in the environmental community itself. Commenting on greenlining in the United States, Baldwin and colleagues observe the following: ―In this time of heightened ecological awareness and anxiety, the conservationist pieties of the generations who created the national park system… no longer hold. Some writers have even begun to question the ideology of preservation…we are less and less clear about what it would mean to preserve nature.‖ lxiii Among the many examples of greenlining that could be cited are in the United States are Yellowstone National Park,lxiv the Virgin Island National Park,lxv and the Shenandoah National Park.lxvi Native people were evicted in the first two cases; hundreds of non-Native families were collateral damage of the last. In each

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case, government officials stripped the use and residency rights of local people in the name of tourism tied to reservation ecology, despite the fact that the victims were long-term denizens and knew the local ecosystems intimately. Sustainable living with nature is not only about innovation and new relationships with nature; it is also about retaining abiding relationships from the past, particularly those that connected (and in some geographies continue to connect) biodiversity and cultural diversity.lxvii

5. Conclusion Much is known about park-centric approaches to conserving biodiversity due its longevity, the national-level data gathered to monitor it, and the sprawling interest of conservation biologists in the biology of these units. Far less is known about reconciliation ecology and its strengths as well as its weaknesses. Where the former is committed to converting as much of every continent as possible into de jure nature parks, Rosenzweig would convert much of the world into a de facto park in which humans coexist with nature and accept responsibility for both its use and protection. Although I have focused on experiences relevant to win-sin ecology and offered strong cautionary notes on the wisdom of greenlining, there is surely a place for both strategies in the Anthropocene, and the Stockholm Resilience Center scientists would insist on it. Rosenzweig’s optimism must be tempered by the concerns of conservation biologists, some of which were posed above. Embedding biodiversity conservation into a globalized world is by no means easy. The paradox of greenlining—that parkbased conservation success begets social dislocation, disaffection, and revenge effects—would be unremarkable if parks and protected areas were uninhabited by humans. Yet the opposite holds for 70 to 85 percent of the world’s protected areas.lxviii Our brief journey through the global conservation landscape suggests that much is at stake in the debate between the defenders and detractors of park-based conservation: human welfare and social justice on the one hand and ecosystem integrity and services on the other. Surely McNeely is right in observing that policies which ignore the presence of people within national parks are doomed to failure and that this failure will not end with the people but with the conservation edifice erected around them.lxix

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End Notes 1

RockstrĂśm, J., et al., A safe operating space for humanity. Nature, 2009. (461): p. 472-475.

Rosenzweig, M.L., Win-win ecology: how the earth's species can survive in the midst of human enterprise. London: Oxford University Press, 2003a.

Rosenzweig, M.L., Reconciliation ecology and the future of species diversity. Oryx, 2003b. (37): p. 194-205.

DeFries, R., et al., Land use change around protected areas: management to balance human needs and ecological function. Ecological Applications, 2007. 17(4): p. 1031-38.

Gotelli, N. J. A primer of ecology. Third edition. Sinauer Associates, Inc. 2001.

MEA, Biodiversity synthesis, in Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2005.

SoulĂŠ, M.E. and M.A. Sanjayan, Conservation targets, Science, 1998. (279): p. 2060-2061.

Wilson, E.O., The future of life. New York: A. A. Knopf, 2000.

Welz, A. Winning concept seeks work. Review of Win-Win Ecology by Michael rosenzweig. Diversity and Distributions: A Journal of Conservation. 2004. (10:5/6) p.506.

Brooks, T. Rose-tinted ecology. Plos Biology, 2003. 1(3) p. 73.

DeFries, R., et al., Land use change around protected areas: management to balance human needs and ecological function. Ecological Applications, 2007. 17(4): p. 1031-38.

Ibid, 1032.

Lovelock, J.E., A physical basis for life detection experiments. Nature, 1965. 207(7): p. 568-570.

Wilson, Edward O., Biophilia, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1984.

For an extended critique of island biogeography, for example, see G. P. Nabhan, 2003, Singing the Turtles to Sea. Berkeley: University of California Press. 16 McNeely, J.A., The future of national parks. Environmental Education, 1990. (32): p. 16-27. 17

McNeeley, J.A. and S.J. Scherr, Ecoagriculture: Strategies to feed the world and save wild biodiversity. Island Press. Washington, D.E. 2003.

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Collet, L. and A. Jarvis, Spatial assessment of agriculture, wildlife, and poverty in E. Africa. CIAT and Ecoagriculture Partners. Washington, D.C., 2008. Marshall, R., The people's forest. New York: Harrison Smith and Robert Haas, 1933. Izac, A.M.N. and P. A. Sanchez. Towards a natural resource management paradigm for international agriculture: the example of agroforestry research. Agricultural Systems, 2001 (69):5-25.

Bhagwat, S.A., K. J. Willis, H. J. B. Birks, and R. J. Whittaker. Agroforestry: a refuge for tropical biology.Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2008 (23: 5):261-67. See also Lance, J. 2009. Cited at http://news.mongabay.com/2009/0924-hance_bhagwat.html on June 12, 2010: Could agroforestry solve the biodiversity crisis and address poverty?, an interview with Shonil Bhagwat (Sept. 24).

Buck, L.E., J.P. Lassoie and E.C.M. Fernandes, (eds), Agroforestry in Sustainable Agricultural Systems. Baton Raton, FL: CRC Press, 1999.

Carroll, C.R., A.M. Dix, and J.S. Kettler, Tropical agroecology and conservation ecoplogy: two paths toward sustainable development. Conservation Biology - for the Coming Decade, 1998.

Schroth, G., et al., Agroforestry and biodiversity conservation in tropical landscapes. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2004.

Molnar, A. and S. Scherr, Who conserves the world‟s forests? Community driven strategies that protect forests and respect rights. Washington, DC: Forest Trends, 2003.

Zomer, R.J., et al., Trees on farm: analysis of global extent and geographical patterns of agroforestry. Nairobi, Kenya: World Agroforestry Centre. 2003.

Sierra, K., Forest carbon partnership facility FY2009 annual report. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 2009.

International Centre for Research Agroforestry (ICRAF), Towards a natural resource management paradigm for international agriculture: the example of agroforesty research. Agricultural Systems, 2000. (69): p. 5-25.

Colchester, M. 2003. Salvaging Nature. Maldonado, Uruguay. World Rainforest Movement. 2003.

Kristoff, N.D., “Make way for the buffalo”. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9803EED91630F93AA15 753C1A9659C8B63, New York Times Magazine, 29 Oct. 2003. Web 2 Apr. 2008.

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Popper, D.E. and F.J. Popper. Great Plains: From Dust to Dust. Planning Magazine, Dec. 1987.

Popper, D.E. and F.J. Popper. The buffalo commons as regional metaphor and geographic method. Geographical Review, 2009.

Doyle, L., “Turner becomes largest private landowner in US.” The Independent, 1 Dec. 2007.

Trzyna, T. 2007. Global Urbanization and Protected Areas. Sacramento, CA: Californian Institute of Public Affairs for IUCN.

McNeeley, J.A. and S.J. Scherr, Ecoagriculture: Strategies to feed the world and save wild biodiversity. Island Press. Washington, D.E. 2003.

Rossler, M., World heritage cultural landscapes: a global perspective, in Brown, J., N. Mitchell, and M. Beresford (eds). Gland, Switzerland: The World Conservation Union, 2005.

Mitchell, N. and S. Buggy. Protected landscapes and the cultural landscapes: taking advantage of diverse approaches. The George Wright Forum, 2000 (17,1):35-46. Pretty, J.N., Agri-culture: reconnecting people, land and nature. Sterling, VA: Earthscan Publications, 2002.

Phillips, A. Management Guidelines for IUCN Category V Protected Areas Protected landscapes/Seascapes. World Commission on Protected Areas, Best Practice Protected Area Guidelines Series No. 9. Cardiff University, Cambridge, UK/IUCN, Gland Switzerland. 2002

Chape, S., M. Spalding, M.D. Jenkins, 2008. The World‟s Protected Areas: Status, Value, and Prospects in the 21st. Century. Berkeley, CA: The University of California Press, Berkeley. 2008.

Phillips, A. Protected Areas come in all shapes and sizes. PARKS , 2002 (14,3) p. 1.

See IUCN Website, accessed 6/12/10 at http://www.iucn.org/about/work/programmes/pa/pa_products/wcpa_categ ories/pa_categoryvi/

Maretti, C., et al., From pre-assumptions to a „just world conserving nature‟: the role of category VI in protecting landscapes, in Brown, J., N. Mitchell, and M. Beresford (eds), The Protected Landscape Approach: Linking Nature, Culture and Community. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN, 2005.

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Chape, S., et al., United Nations list of protected areas. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK: IUCN-UNEP, 2003.

Stack, M., Green dwelling not just a dream. The Baltimore Sun, 5 Mar. 2005.

Lyle, J.T., Design for human ecosystems: landscape, land use, and natural r esources. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1999.

Aston, A. “Wal-Mart: Making its suppliers to green”. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_21/b4132044814736. htm. BusinessWeek, 14 May 2009. Web accessed. 25 Feb. 2010.

Poiani, K.A., et al., Biodiversity conservation at multiples scales: functional sites, landscapes, and networks. BioScience, 2000. (50): p. 133-146.

Libby, J. and D. Bradley, Vermont housing and conservation board: a conspiracy of good will among land trusts and housing trusts, in Geisler, C. and D. Daneker (eds), Property and Values: Alternatives to Public and Private Ownership. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000. Stroup, L. and J. Baden, Endowment areas: a clearing in the policy wilderness?, Cato Journal, 1982. (Winter) p. 691-708. Heal, G., et al., Protecting natural capital through ecosystem service districts. Stanford Environmental Law Journal, 2001. (21): p. 333-364.

Barrow, E. and N. Pathak. Conserving “unprotected” protected areas. Ch. 4 in J. Brown, N. Mithchell and M.Beresford (eds.). The Protected Landscape Approach: Linking Nature, Culture, and Community. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. 2005. 53 Hardin, G., The tragedy of the unmanaged commons. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 1994. (9): p. 199-206. 54

Geisler, C., A new kind of trouble: evictions in Eden. International Social Science Journal, 2003. (175): p. 30-42. Meyers, N., Biodiversity and biodepletion: the need for a paradigm shift, in O'Riordan, T. and S. Stoll-Kleemann (eds), Sustainability and Human Communities: Protecting Beyond the Protected. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002.

McNeeley, J.A. and S.J. Scherr, Common ground, common future. How ecoagriculture can help feed the world and save wild biodiversity. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN-The World Conservation Union, 2001.

Dowie, M. Conservation Refugees. Orion Magazine (Nov./Dec.). 2005. Cernea, M.M. and K. Schmidt-Soltau, Poverty risks and national parks: policy issues in conservation and resettlement. World Development, 2006. 34:1808-1830.

Geisler, C. and R. de Sousa, From refuge to refugee: the African case. Journal of Public Administration and Development, 2001. (21): p. 159-170.

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Brockington, D. and J. Egoe. „Eviction for conservation: a global overview.‟ Conservation and Society. 2006. 4 (3): 424-70. 61 Meyerson, F. “Guatemala Burning.” The Amicus Journal, 1998 (4):28-32; and Thompson, E.P., Whigs and hunters: the origin of the black act. New York: Pantheon, 1975. 62

Colchester, M., Salvaging nature: indigenous peoples, protected areas and biodiversity conservation. Maldonado, Montivideo: World Rainforest, 1994.

Baldwin, A., Jr., J. De Luce and C. Pletsch, Introduction: ecological preservation versus restoration and invention, in Baldwin, A., Jr., J. De Luce, C. Pletsch, (eds), Beyond Preservation; Restoring and Inventing Landscapes. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1994. p. 5. 64 Spence, M. 1999. Dispossessing the Wilderness:Indian Removal and the Making of the National Parks. New York: Oxford University Press. 65 Igoe, J. and D. Brockington. “Neoliberal Conservation: A Brief Introduction,” Conservation & Society, 2007 (5:4) 432-449. 66

Powell, K. A. The Anguish of Displacement: The Politics of Literacy in the Letters of Mountain Families in Shenandoah National Park. Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press, 2007. 67 Kassam, K. Biocultural Diversity and Indigenous Ways of Knowing: Human Ecology in the Arctic. .Calgary: University of Calgary Press, 2009. 68 Chatty, D., Mobile peoples and conservation: an introduction. Nomadic Peoples, 2003 (7): p. 5-16. 69

McNeely, J.A., The future of national parks. Environmental Education, 1990 (32): p. 23.

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Rio Conventions Redux: An Argument for Merging the Trio into a Single Convention on Environmental Management Walker Young Environment, Development, and Sustainability Chulalongkorn University Bangkok, Thailand* Abstract It has been argued that the separation of environmental management into three different subject areas - climate change, biological diversity and desertification - with different implementing bodies is not an ideal approach to the Rio Conventions. Specifically, the United Nations (UN) would achieve better results if the three Rio Conventions were consolidated into one Convention on Environmental Management (CEM). This would allow the streamlining of UN organizations into a stronger, consolidated body. Such a unified structure would be more effective in addressing the convention goals, due to its enhanced integration and coordinated assessment and implementation. By consolidating secretariats and moving operations to a single location, the CEM would benefit from enhanced knowledge management and greater efficiency of operations. Further, a systems theory view of environmental management supports an integrated approach that maximizes sustainability by addressing interdependent ecosystem functions in a holistic matter. Author’s Note Having spent a number of years working with a Fortune 500 multinational enterprise in the United States and throughout Southeast Asia, I decided to switch career paths and embrace my passion - sustainable development and all that it entails. I am highly interested in bringing greater corporate social responsibility to the private sector. In particular, I want to create awareness in the sector of the sustainable use of environmental resources and the value of natural capital. In 2009, I had the opportunity to work on a UNDP-sponsored National Capacity SelfAssessment (NCSA) report, which assessed Thailand‘s progress in implementing the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and identified areas where additional capacity development was needed. From my extensive research of the CBD and the Joint Liaison Group (JLG), I realized how much overlap existed between the CBD and the other Rio Conventions, namely the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the United Nations Convention on Combating Desertification (UNCCD). This opinion piece was written with the intention of creating new debate and dialogue about reform within the existing structure of global environmental governance. Regardless of whether readers agree or disagree with the arguments put forth, discussing the strengths and weaknesses of existing multilateral environmental *

email: wsy9@caa.columbia.edu

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agreements (MEAs) like the Rio Conventions may lead to new ideas for reform. My Master‘s thesis continues this line of research by assessing the relationship of the private sector to the national implementation of the CBD in Thailand.

Keywords: Rio Conventions; biological diversity; desertification; climate change; global environmental governance; efficiency

1. Introduction The 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), also known as the Earth Summit, was held in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, and was a milestone event for the cause of sustainable development. The Brundtland report, Our Common Future, had first laid out the now widely accepted definition of sustainable development1 in 1987 at the meeting of the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED). The Earth Summit moved theory towards action with the implementation of Agenda 21. This was a program which would further the goal of sustainable development in an effort to lessen human impact on the natural environment, while simultaneously addressing social issues such as poverty, health and consumption. This international development agenda – particularly the environmental aspect – was further benefitted by the initiation of the Rio Conventions, which included the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD2. The Rio Conventions took the concepts of biological diversity, desertification and atmospheric protection initially described in Agenda 21 and expounded upon them in a much more profound and extensive manner. A detailed description of the structural framework of the Rio Conventions is found in the Appendix below. Over the past seventeen years of operating within the frameworks of the Rio Conventions, implementation progress within countries has varied. Indeed, some experts like Mohammed El-Ashry, Senior Fellow with the UN Foundation and Facilitator of the Global Leadership for Climate Action (GLCA), feel that the majority of countries have not made major progress in the areas of environmental management including climate change, biodiversity and land degradation. El-Ashry, former Chairman and CEO of the Global Environment Facility (GEF), grimly sums up the lack of progress by noting that ―greenhouse gases are steadily increasing; ecosystems that are critical for human survival continue to be undermined; and land degradation threatens food security and livelihoods, especially in Africa‖.3 In November 2006, the UN Secretary-General convened a special task force known as the ―High-Level Panel on System-wide Coherence‖ to explore ways in which the UN could better manage the complicated areas of environment, development and humanitarian aid.4 In its findings, the Panel concluded that ―substantial gains in efficiency and effective responses can be

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made through enhanced coordination and improved normative and operational capacity.‖5 This critique was not only leveled at the UN agencies, but also at the secretariats and affiliated bodies which manage environmental agreements such as the Rio Conventions. Indeed, the Panel pointed out that ―synergy needs to be pursued between the United Nations organizations that address environment, and multilateral environmental agreements [MEAs] should continue to pursue efficiencies and coordination among themselves.‖6 The MEAs have heeded this call for continued improvement by taking measures to increase partnerships and identify synergies. Some MEAs, such as the Basel Convention alongside the Stockholm and Rotterdam Conventions, have pursued functional clustering of convention activities in areas which overlap in subject matter and scope. In the case of the Rio Conventions, the Joint Liaison Group (JLG) comprises members of all three conventions and was created ―for exchanging information, exploring opportunities for synergistic activities and increasing coordination.‖7 Each convention calls on the JLG to be the solution, notably in UNCCD decision 12 at the Sixth Meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP); CBD decision VI/20; and UNFCCC decision 13/CP.8 However, even with such support, the JLG has not been successful at generating meaningful improvements in the Conventions‘ implementation, quite possibly because of the inherent reductionism that led to the creation of the UNFCCC, the CBD and the UNCCD in the first place. It is possible that the parties at the Earth Summit, in all their wisdom and good intent, made the roles of the Rio Conventions more complicated than necessary by isolating their foci away from the larger picture of ecosystem homeostasis and sustainable development. Are the Rio Conventions actually a lesson in why reductionist thinking is not the answer to holistic and integrated problems? There are ample reasons to believe this is the case. Reductionism is defined by Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute as ―an approach to building descriptions of systems out of the descriptions of the subsystems that a system is composed of, and ignoring the relationships between them.‖9 By seeking to address global environmental issues through the subsystems of biological diversity, desertification, and climate change, the Rio Conventions take a complex system – Earth, its species, and the myriad processes which integrate them – and reduce the system to parts which are unrepresentative of the unified whole. Hence, reliance on the JLG may not be the most effective approach to bring collaborative action and synergy to the three conventions. In order to maximize operational efficiencies and address the complex nature of environmental management in a sustainable and holistic manner, the secretariats of the Rio Conventions, alongside the Member Parties, should consider merging the three into one, thereby creating a single convention to address the collective mission. While the JLG ostensibly attempts to serve this role by weighing in on all three of the conventions, the group is marginalized by its lack of authority and power within the operational structure of the Rio

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Conventions. The JLG is simply another subsidiary body which meets independently of the three conventions and issues recommendations. The UNCCD, UNFCCC and CBD may take the recommendations under consideration, but there is no legal precedent which mandates that they must adopt the JLG positions. Thus, the Rio Conventions are still operating independently of each other. In so doing, they are making their objectives more difficult to address because there are reasons to believe that, by working together directly, they could achieve more. In order to improve the ability of Member Parties to deliver the goals set forth in the Rio Conventions, the author proposes a merger of the CBD, UNFCCC, and UNCCD into a new convention – the Convention for Environmental Management (CEM). The merger concept is further supported by knowledge management and efficiency arguments.

2. Merging the Rio Conventions While the Rio Conventions appear on the surface to address the different issues of climate change, biological diversity and land desertification, they are actually all aimed at promoting sustainable development. This idea of sustainability is best imagined as what development ―should be‖10, something that avoids ―compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs‖11, in contrast to what it ―should not be.‖12 Such an approach to development acknowledges that societal actions and choices have meaningful and profound impacts on natural resource availability and land productivity, which potentially affect the ability of societies to survive over the longer term (i.e., by threatening food security). The objectives and norms of each Rio Convention are based on this approach (see Table 1), which may set a framework for where the three conventions overlap. For example, the UNCCD believes that land conservation and sustainable management of land and water resources are integral to combating desertification, because the roots of healthy flora help to stabilize the ground and prevent nutrient rich soil from becoming dry dust. But the conservation of land in its natural state is also a goal of the CBD when it calls for conservation of biological diversity because productive soil allows plant life to flourish, thereby providing a healthy ecosystem for a variety of species. These goals of the UNCCD and CBD are both addressed by proper land management in order to avoid desertification of soil and loss of species. On a broader level, the sustainable use of resources as mentioned by the CBD is in line with UNCCD‘s call for sustainable management of water and land resources as well as UNFCCC‘s normative qualifier that food production should not be threatened by development. Hence, the objectives of the Rio Conventions are ingrained in the sustainable development approach and their outcomes rely heavily upon the societal actions taken in the course of economic development.

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Convention Cited Reference UNCCD final text of the Convention, Article 2

UNFCCC

final text of the Convention, Article 2

CBD

final text of the Convention, Article 1

Main Objectives (●) and Norms ( )  Combat desertification  Mitigate the effects of drought in countries experiencing drought  Achieved through land rehabilitation, conservation and sustainable management of land and water resources  Achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system  Should be achieved in such a timeframe to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner  Conserve biological diversity  Use its components sustainably  Share the benefits arising out of the utilization genetic resources fairly and equitably  Achieved through appropriate access to genetic resources, appropriate transfer of relevant technologies, and appropriate funding

Table 1: Objectives and Norms of the Rio Conventions

Even where not explicitly tying the objectives of the conventions together, there are actions which cut across the Rio Conventions that would fundamentally assist the secretariats and implementing bodies of all three MEAs in achieving their mandates. One such complementary area is addressing poverty reduction. An assessment of poverty and desertification conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is of particular relevance to the UNCCD‘s objective: Desertification and poverty create a vicious cycle where deteriorating natural resources contribute to declining livelihoods, as people are forced to encroach further on fragile soils, sparse vegetation and limited water resources to meet basic needs.13

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Of concern to the UNFCCC, poverty is implicit in the vulnerability of communities to climate variability, as it directly lessens resilience. The national biodiversity strategies and action plans (NBSAPs) of the CBD explicitly ask for promotion of ―synergies between activities to implement the Convention and poverty eradication.‖14 The CBD‘s 2010 Biodiversity Target program seeks a notable reduction in biodiversity loss, in part to alleviate poverty.15 By taking steps to reduce poverty, the missions of all three of the Rio Conventions stand to benefit. The OECD identifies this relationship between the Rio Conventions and poverty reduction and describes a number of development strategies, such as sustainable forest management and agricultural reforms, which would address poverty while also focusing on climate change, biological diversity, and desertification.16 Given this undercurrent of sustainable development, all three Rio Conventions should be considered tools for enhancing sustainable environmental management. One of the keys for effective management in any large context is having disparate functions work together as a team and not alone as individuals. With this in mind, there are a number of arguments to be made for merging the Rio Conventions into one master Convention on Environmental Management (CEM). The CEM would address all areas that the CBD, UNCCD, and UNFCCC currently address, but it would do so with enhanced coherence, more efficient utilization of financial and staff resources, and with fewer meetings of the parties. To understand how the CEM would effectively replace the CBD, UNFCCC and UNCCD, two arguments for merging and consolidating must be explored. The first argument in favor of consolidation is based on holistic knowledge management. The second argument is a classic example from the business management theory behind corporate mergers.

2.1 The Knowledge Management Argument To date, international environmental policy-making has generally been segregated on the basis of topic, sector, or territory. The result is the negotiation of treaties that often overlap and conflict with one another. This engenders unnecessary complications at the national level as signatories struggle to meet their reporting obligations under multiple agreements.17 The establishment of three Rio Conventions, by delineating ecosystem issues into three separate strands (climate change, biological diversity, and desertification), mirrors the type of reductionism that was seen in the academic world with the isolation of the chemical and physical sciences into chemistry, geology, and other fields. Fritjof Kapra identifies the birth of this reductionist thinking in ―Cartesian mechanism‖ where ―the notion of an organic, living, and spiritual universe was replaced by that of the world as a machine, and the world-machine became the dominant metaphor of the modern era.‖18 Kapra argues that this analytic approach is doomed from

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solving the great mysteries of life because life has intertwined and interdependent processes which are lost when viewed from the molecular level. From Kapra‘s viewpoint, knowledge of living systems, such as the earth, is best kept integrated at the holistic level so that vital complex systems are not deconstructed in the process of deeper analysis. The environment is a highly complex, self-organized living system and must be studied in a systemic manner. Kanie19 confirms that ―the climate, forests, oceans, wetlands, and diverse bio-systems are naturally co-dependent within the global ecosystem‖ yet laments that ―the multilateral approach to these issues still remains fragmented, however, in terms of methods and mechanisms of scientific assessment and the development of consensual knowledge.‖ Kanie‘s critique holds ground against the Rio Conventions because the CBD, UNCCD and UNFCCC each have their own scientific subsidiary body which operates independently of the other. There is no reason why these separate scientific bodies cannot be integrated into one scientific arm that studies environmental issues including climate change, biodiversity and desertification. Indeed the Conventions are doomed to fall short of their lofty goals. For example, by spending years of unwavering focus on biodiversity without considering climate change as a relevant factor, the Parties to the CBD were at a disadvantage in achieving their conservation mandate. In tandem, the UNFCCC was also affected by not realizing the carbon offsetting benefits of biological systems such as forests. The Secretariat to the CBD acknowledges this ―oversight‖ on the CBD website, obliging that ―it is now widely recognized that climate change and biodiversity are interconnected. . . . Consequently, conserving and sustainably managing biodiversity is critical to addressing climate change.‖20 However, it remains that the parties to the Conventions have implicitly acknowledged this interconnectedness by creating the Joint Liaison Group (JLG).21 The JLG is now a fundamental resource to be consulted when determining implementation of action items for any of the Rio Conventions. For the parties to the Rio Conventions, the formation of the JLG was a good step towards a systems approach, but it does not go far enough. The JLG should take on the job of a management consultant and determine how best to merge the CBD, the UNFCCC and the UNCCD into one convention. Within one convention, the environment could be managed as the whole entity that it is and not as three separate parts of an entity. Going back to the examples of scientific reductionism in fields such as molecular biology and physics, the opposite can be observed in the science of life: ecology, which is inherently holistic. Kapra speaks at depth as to how the principles of ecology are the basis for ecosystem resilience, something of utmost concern to the UNFCCC in terms of climate change, the UNCCD regarding soil versatility, and the CBD with regard to maintaining biological diversity: The principles of ecology mentioned so far – interdependence, the cyclical flow of resources, cooperation,

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and partnership – are all different aspects of the same pattern of organization. This is how ecosystems organize themselves to maximize sustainability.22 If the parties at the Earth Summit had established the Rio Conventions along the lines of ecological frameworks – under the same pattern of organization – instead of reductionist frameworks according to perceived threats (i.e., climate change, desertification, loss of biological diversity), there would be much more progress achieved relative to the initial objectives. Such gains in progress would be most visible in the area of crosscutting issues such as forest management. Healthy forests are incubators for biodiversity (beneficial to the CBD‘s objective). They absorb carbon dioxide gas, thus offsetting greenhouse gas emissions (beneficial to the UNFCCC‘s objective) and they aerate and provide substantial nutrients to the soil through decaying organic matter and extensive root networks (beneficial to the UNCCD‘s objective). The concept of clustering further validates the argument for consolidating the CBD, UNCCD and UNFCCC into a broader Convention on Environmental Management. Indeed, a group of ministers discussing international environmental governance noted in a 2001 meeting report23 that ―the possibility of clustering certain Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) to enhance coherence and effectiveness in their implementation has been discussed at each meeting of the Open-ended Intergovernmental Group on International Environmental Governance since the Group was established‖. In the case of this UNEP report, the MEAs under consideration were the Rotterdam Convention, the Stockholm Convention and the Basel Convention. To some degree, all three of these conventions deal with chemicals and waste. The reason that the Intergovernmental Group of Ministers (IGM) were even considering the functional clustering of legally sovereign agreements was due to paragraph 3 of Decision SC-1/18 of the Stockholm Convention, which holds that this collaborative grouping might ―ensure maximum coherence, efficiency and effectiveness in the field of chemicals and wastes.‖24 One could envision similar results if the Rio Conventions were ―clustered‖ to address the field of integrated environmental management. The parties would benefit from the streamlined administrative powers of a single entity while still enjoying the flexibility to study and undertake projects of differing types. For example, the CEM would allow for enhanced sharing of experiences across the UNFCCC, the UNCCD and the CBD through joint meetings and shared databases and websites. The JLG already calls for these sorts of improvements to be applied to the existing Rio framework; however, the difference is that CEM would fall under one secretariat and one administrative body, thus consolidating functions that previously fell across three secretariats and various administrative bodies. This means there would less of a need for the distribution of summary reports to

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other MEAs because the parties would naturally be privy to the information since it falls under the CEM. Further, the CEM structure would still allow for isolated study that may not overlap with other subjects. For example, the CBD is involved in the study of genetic resources. On the surface, there is no reason to combine the subject of genetic resources with areas such as climate change or desertification. Therefore, genetic resources could occupy a special working group under the newly formed CEM. All of the experts who currently work in the field of genetic resources could still collaborate in this area under the special working group with no loss of productivity. The combination of the Rio Conventions into one central convention need not limit the power or scope of the initial conventions to accomplish their objectives related to climate change, biological diversity or land desertification. Quite the opposite scenario is envisioned where each area is actually enhanced due to better access to resources and knowledge, which were not easily accessible previously.

2.2 The Efficiency Argument Developing countries are unable to cope with the extensive reporting and participation requirements of the current multilateral environmental structure, which has depleted expertise and resources for implementation. A survey by the Panel revealed that the three Rio Conventions (biodiversity, climate and desertification) have up to 230 meetings days annually.25 Leaving aside the argument of knowledge management, there is still ample reason to consider merging the Rio Conventions in order to better align their implementing bodies and secretariats towards accomplishing their respective mandates by using fewer financial resources and reducing overlap. Dan H. McCormick26 finds that an effective merger should provide ―greater organizational efficiency through combining positions, reducing administrative costs, and streamlining standardized operations.‖ There are a number of examples where the merging of the Rio Conventions would lead to these results. Looking again at clustering, the IGM identify a number of possible benefits from functional clustering of MEAs including possible cost-savings, shared secretariat services via common structures, ―enhanced coherence and coordination on cross-cutting issues,‖27 and the possibility of attracting additional resources due to enhanced mobilization efforts. Each of these benefits may be achievable in the case of merging the Rio Conventions into one Convention on Environmental Management (CEM). The potential cost-savings also correlate to saving time. El-Ashry references a survey which found that the Rio Conventions meet on 230 days

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out of the year. In addition to the high frequency of meetings, each Rio Convention typically meets in different cities, which complicates things further. For example, in the month of July 2009, the UNCCD secretariat held meetings in Rome, Bangkok and Tunis in preparation for the ninth session of the Conference of Parties (COP).28 During that same month, the CBD secretariat held meetings in Montreal, Canada, and Reading, U.K., and the UNFCCC held a meeting in St. George‘s, Grenada.2930 This flurry of meeting activity places heavy burdens on smaller countries which lack the domestic staff and the budgetary resources to attend all of these events. Other conventions have realized the folly in such disparate meeting schedules. For instance, the recommendations from the Basel Convention for functional clustering of chemicals and wastes found that back-to-back meetings would lead to ―reduced conference servicing costs . . . savings on travel costs of interpreters‖ and ―possible reduction in participation costs.‖31 If the Rio Conventions were merged into a CEM which utilized one secretariat, all meetings would be coordinated through one central office. This would allow for better planning so that meetings dealing with climate change, biodiversity or land desertification would either take place back-to-back in the same city (thereby reducing travel expenses and personnel needed for coverage) or consolidate meetings into one event. Another benefit of a merger of the Rio Conventions would be the possibility of combining the secretariats and administrative functions of all three MEAs. Although the UNCCD, UNFCCC and CBD are independent legal documents, their organizational structures are quite similar.32 Each of the three conventions have their own executive secretary, deputy executive secretary, legal affairs department; sustainability department, science and technology departments, information services department, financial and human resources departments, and a conference planning department. That is, to some degree, a triple redundancy in that each convention undertakes separate conference planning, separate human resources management, separate legal affairs and so on. To merge the conventions into a CEM wherein these overlaps would be consolidated would serve to minimize the redundancy. For example, one legal affairs department could cover the entire thematic area of environmental management and employ specialized lawyers (i.e., the current lawyers employed by the CBD, UNCCD and UNFCCC) to treat the specific legal issues around biodiversity, climate change and desertification. By serving in the same corporate office, these lawyers may in fact benefit from the proximity they would share, as this added collaboration may very well improve their performance. Indeed, the concept of shared secretariat services has great appeal to many MEAs with similar concepts.33 At the 2005 World Summit Outcome, Member States strongly supported enhanced coherence among MEAs and memorialized the fact in General Assembly Resolution 60/1: Recognizing the need for more efficient environmental activities in the United Nations system, with enhanced coordination, improved policy advice and guidance,

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Merging the secretariat services into one secretariat covering all aspects of environmental management for the Rio Conventions would certainly fulfill the needs of the Member States by ―building on existing institutions‖ as well as providing ―a more integrated structure.‖ This would increase coordination among the Rio sub-topics and thereby enhance the implementation of programming and activities.35 Such a consolidation may even increase the effectiveness of overall operations for all departments (e.g., human resources, legal affairs, etc.). The necessary step for consolidating the organizational structure of the conventions would be moving all secretariat headquarters to the same city. This means those personnel from the CBD who would like to continue their work within the context of the newly formed CEM would need to move from Montreal, Canada (the current CBD headquarters) to Bonn, Germany. Bonn is the natural selection for the secretariat headquarters for the CEM because the UNFCCC and UNCCD secretariats are currently located there. While the upfront cost may be substantial for such a move, the strategy would pay back dividends in the long term due to the added value of having all Rio Conventions in the same office complex, thereby eliminating future travel for secretariats to collaborate. There would likely also be cost savings in human resources, since with a consolidated administrative body, the new secretariat would potentially be able to lay off redundant staff and thus save on labor costs. One additional benefit of merging the Rio Conventions would be the stronger CEM which would come out of the move. Combining the separate scientific, political and civil networks which have been established via the Rio Conventions into one larger entity would endow the CEM with a lot of powerful resources. The consolidated MEA would be further strengthened as reporting requirements would become easier for Member States to implement. Rather than worrying about the reporting requirements of three Rio Conventions, the parties to the CEM would have all requirements and obligations laid out in one single MEA.

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CEM Secretariat

Legal Affairs (CBD, UNCCD, UNFCCC)

Administrative Affairs (CBD, UNCCD, UNFCCC)

Conference Planning (CBD, UNCCD, UNFCCC)

Figure 1: An example of the Consolidated Organizational Structure of the CEM, serving all Rio Conventions By capitalizing on the inherent interconnectedness of ecosystems, the merged CEM would produce efficiencies which the Rio Conventions lack in their current standalone sovereignty. Both operationally and administratively, the secretariats could expect greater utility and value by combining their efforts and resources into a single convention.

3. Criticisms of the Merger The idea of merging the Rio Conventions into one MEA is subject to criticism in a number of areas. A potential barrier to merging which needs to be considered is the legal autonomy of each Rio Convention. The CBD, UNCCD and UNFCCC were each signed and ratified into law by Member States on a separate basis. Maria Ivanova aptly summarizes the difficulty posed by this autonomy: While the institutional architecture for environmental governance in the early 1970s was obviously ill-suited for the scale and scope of the problems, a serious effort to reallocate environmental responsibilities among agencies or broader structural reform was deemed impossible given the legal autonomy of the agencies.36 The legal argument is a large barrier. The Rio Conventions, under advisory of the JLG, could not even agree upon joint reporting requirements due to the fact that each Rio Convention was legally signed and ratified under different particulars. For example, Thailand ratified the CBD only in 2004 but ratified the UNCCD in 1991 and the UNFCCC in 1994.37 Thus, Thailand‘s obligations under each agreement only extend as far back as to the date ratified. If the Rio Conventions are merged into one MEA, where does that leave Thailand – or any country, for that matter – in terms of reporting requirements and historical acceptance of climate change, land desertification and biological diversity? This argument can be allayed by embracing pragmatic realism, in other words by acknowledging that what matters now is present and future efforts to address environmental issues, not the past. If the Member States that have

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ratified all three Rio Conventions were to agree to accept the most recent date (i.e., 2004 in the case of Thailand‘s ratification of the CBD) as the ratification date of the CEM, that agreement would provide a fair and concise way to unify the conventions. An even greater challenge to a potential merger is posed by Member States that have not agreed to be party to all three Rio Conventions. Given that a number of countries (i.e., the United States) have only signed and ratified one or two of the Rio Conventions but not all three, there would most definitely be disagreement about merging the MEAs into one entity. This consideration may be too large to surmount. Legal considerations are the underpinning of national and international governance. Each Rio Convention was signed into law with the explicit acknowledgement that the document was sovereign and not subject to alteration or modification. In order to merge the MEAs into a single format, the judicial courts might require that every single party to the conventions (e.g., each country which has signed and ratified any of the Rio Conventions) give consent to consolidate. Getting 100 per cent consensus to consolidate is highly unlikely and bordering on the impossible given that some Member States still refuse to become a party to certain Rio Conventions. Even if Member Parties refuse to consent to a full-fledged merger to create the CEM, there are ways to address the legal concerns. Dealing with the most difficult international regulatory disputes is exactly what the United Nations is meant to do, so there is precedent for imagining that a concerted effort at dialogue could lead to creative approaches. One possibility to consider is a modular approach where Member Parties only take part in the CEM meetings or sessions, which are directly relevant to the Rio Conventions that they previously ratified. Like students at a university, the Member Parties to the CEM would meet to discuss specific subjects on the global agenda, including climate change, biodiversity and desertification. Parties which have ratified the CBD but not the UNFCCC or UNCCD could choose to attend only the meetings or sessions which most closely relate to biodiversity or CBD-specific topics. The CEM secretariat would facilitate this process by publishing in advance a ‗subject scorecard,‘ which would give a percentage rating to the most relevant subjects of the session. If a meeting rated as 80% focused on climate change, those countries not involved in the UNFCCC could choose not to attend. This ―modular scorecard‖ concept could be challenged on the grounds that cross-cutting decisions would undoubtedly arise (i.e., sustainable forest management), wherein the scorecard might read ―80% biodiversity‖ but the outcome of such a meeting might have a sizeable impact on the climate change agenda. In this example, a country that has not ratified the CBD might take issue that the decision reached under that biodiversity module has undue effect on the country‘s standing and rights under the climate change module. So how could the modular scorecard approach resolve such issues? The key is a democratic separation of powers, better known as ―checks and balances,‖ as

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is seen in the United States Government with the Senate and the House of Representatives. Before a major bill can become a national law, the bill must be passed with enough supporting votes cast in the Senate and separately in the House of Representatives. Having two separate constituencies vote on the bill helps ensure that the majority are indeed in approval of the content. If a meeting which is 75% biodiversity, 20% climate change and 5% desertification passes new measures, then the climate change camp (those Parties which only ratified the UNFCCC) would need to vote on the measures and approve them at a certain threshold. The solution is not perfect and not every Party will feel satisfied, but democratic decisions (and multilateral decisions for that matter) rarely satisfy everyone.

4. Conclusion Considering both the advantages of merging the Rio MEAs into a Convention on Environmental Management as well as the difficulties in doing so, this topic is clearly in need of further debate by a wide group of stakeholders at the local, national and international level. As shown above, various groups and panels within the UN organization have called for reform within the area of international environmental governance. While not advocating a specific approach to increasing cooperation and coherence, these reformist groups offer a number of valuable suggestions including consolidation of MEAs or MEA functions. Their inputs offer a starting point for a more comprehensive effort to improve environmental management through improved implementation of MEAs. The merging of existing MEAs may be viewed as a radical notion by some and far-fetched by many others. However, the important concept to take under consideration is not the feasibility of merging the Rio Conventions but whether the idea of doing so has merit. If the idea- as novel and radical as it may be - makes some sense in terms of what it would accomplish, then it should ultimately open up new areas for discussion, stimulating further reform in the process. An outcome of increased dialogue, engaged debate on multilateral reforms, and increased visibility for improving environmental management is likely to be welcomed by all concerned Member Parties.

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Appendix: Convention and Secretariat Organizational Structures 1.1 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; An Overview of the Secretariats and Conference of Parties Initially, each of the three Rio Conventions sought to address a different environmental area of concern and add new understanding in terms of the interactions between humans with nature. Each convention was endowed with a separate reporting structure. Under the umbrella of the United Nations, each convention has a governing body representative of all participant countries which is known as the Conference of the Parties (COP).38 Further, the COP then establishes a unique secretariat for each convention with the goal of servicing and preparing for COP meetings and other subsidiary body meetings. The resulting framework looks like something similar to the framework shown in Figure 2 below.

CBD COP

UNFCCC COP

UNCCD COP

CBD Secretariat

UNFCCC Secretariat

UNCCD Secretariat

JLG Figure 2: Chart depicting the separate reporting structure of the secretariats to each COP; members of each secretariat and certain subsidiary bodies comprise the JLG and collaborate and share ideas in the JLG meeting sessions Under the CBD alone, subsidiary bodies include the COP, the Scientific Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice (SBSTTA), the Working Group on the Review of Implementation (WGRI), the Working Group on Access and Benefit Sharing (ABS), the Working Group on Article 8(j) and the Working Group on Protected Areas.39 The UNCCD has its COP, its secretariat as well as a Committee for the Review of the Implementation of the Convention (CRIC) and a Committee on Science and Technology (CST), not to mention its outreach program groups like the Global Mechanism (GM).40 The UNFCCC has its COP as well as subsidiaries like the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI).41 Thus, the sum of all the sub-bodies under the Rio Conventions is at least twelve and possibly more if counting project groups and task forces.

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Appendix 1.2 – UNFCCC Organizational Structure4243

Appendix 1.3 – UNCCD Organizational Structure44

Appendix 1.4 – CBD Organizational Structure45

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OECD. The DAC Guidelines: Integrating Rio Conventions into Development Co-operation. Paris: OECD, 2002. Web. 9 June 2010. <www.oecd.org/dataoecd/49/2/1960098.pdf>. Ramsar. The Staff of the Ramsar Secretariat. 2009. 27 April 2009. <http://www.ramsar.org/about/about_bureau.htm>. SCBD. 2010 Biodiversity Target. 2009. 22 February 2009. <http://www.cbd.int/2010-target/>. —. Calendar of SCBD Meetings. 23 April 2009. 26 April 2009. <http://www.cbd.int/meetings/>. —. Climate Change and Biodiversity. 6 June 2010. 9 June 2010. <http://www.cbd.int/climate/>. —. Conference of the Parties (COP). 22 February 2009. <http://www.cbd.int/convention/cops.shtml>. —. Convention Bodies. 20 February 2009. 22 February 2009. <http://www.cbd.int/convention/bodies.shtml>. —. COP 9 Decision IX/8. 26 April 2009. <http:// www.cbd.int/decision/cop/?id=11651>. —. Joint Liaison Group. 21 November 2007. 12 February 2009. <http://www.cbd.int/cooperation/liaison.shtml>. —. The Rio Conventions. 27 November 2008. 22 February 2009. <http://www.cbd.int/rio/>. Secretariat of the Basel Convention. "Recommendations on improving cooperation and synergies." Ad Hoc Joint Working Group on enhanced cooperation and coordination between the Basel, Stockholm and Rotterdam Conventions. 25 April 2009. <http://ahjwg.chem.unep.ch/documents/1stmeeting/bcrecomm.pdf>. Secretary-General‘s High-level Panel on UN System-wide Coherence. Delivering As One: Report of the Secretary-General's High-Level Panel. New York: United Nations, 2006. Web. 28 April 2009. <http://www.undg.org/docs/8758/HLP-SWC-FinalReport.pdf>. UNCCD. "Meetings and Events (2009)." 14 April 2009. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. 26 April 2009. <http://www.unccd.int/secretariat/docs/workplan/workplan2009eng.pdf>. UNDP-UNEP. Mainstreaming Poverty-Environment Linkages into Development Planning: A Handbook for Practitioners. Ed. Nita Congress, John Dawson, and Karen Holmes. UNDP-UNEP PovertyEnvironment Facility, 2009. Web. 9 June 2010. <http://www.unpei.org/Knowledge-Resources/PEIHandbook.asp>.

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UNEP Intergovernmental Group of Ministers. "Clustering of chemicals/wastes multilateral environmental agreements." 16 November 2001. Basel Convention. 25 April 2009. <www.basel.int/meetings/igm/unep_igm_4_inf_1_eng%20clustering %20of%20chemicals.pdf>. UNFCCC. Calendar. 10 June 2010. 10 June 2010. <http://unfccc.int/meetings/unfccc_calendar/items/2655.php?year= 2009>. United Nations. Agenda 21. 15 December 2004. 21 February 2009. <http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/documents/agenda21/index.htm> . â&#x20AC;&#x201D;. Convention Bodies. 22 February 2009. <http://www.unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/c onvention_bodies/items/2629.php>. United Nations Development Group. System-wide Coherence. 21 April 2009. <http://www.undg.org/index.cfm?P=32>.

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Endnotes (Brundtland) (SCBD, ―The Rio Conventions‖) (El-Ashry 7) (United Nations Development Group) (Secretary General‘s High-level Panel, 18) (Ibid. 19) (SCBD, ―Joint Liaison Group‖) (Ibid.) (Bar-Yam) (See definition of ‗sustainable development‘ in UNDP-UNEP 109) (Brundtland, para. 27) (See, for example, development in the United States, in Dernbach et al. 10275) (OECD 15) (See section (e) of SCBD, ―COP 9 Decision IX/8‖) (SCBD, ―2010 Biodiversity Target‖) (OECD 17) (Kanie 71) (Kapra 19) (Kanie 72) (SCBD, ―Climate Change and Biodiversity‖) (SCBD, ―Joint Liaison Group‖) (Kapra 293) (UNEP Intergovernmental Group of Ministers 2) (Secretariat of the Basel Convention 2) (El-Ashry 11) (McCormick 6 - 7) (Ibid. 10) (UNCCD) (SCBD, ―Calendar of SCBD Meetings‖) (UNFCCC) (Secretariat of the Basel Convention 7) See Appendix sections 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4 for the organizational structures of the Rio Conventions (Secretariat of the Basel Convention) (Ibid. 8) (Ibid.) (Ivanova 32) (Mitchell) For a description of the COP, see SCBD, ―Conference of the Parties (COP)‖ (SCBD, ―Convention Bodies‖) For additional details on the Global Mechanism in the context of the UNCCD, see The Global Mechanism website <http://www.globalmechanism.org/about-us/what-is-the-gm/what-is-the-unccd>.

154 (United Nations, ―Convention Bodies‖) Organizational structure and acronyms (see endnote 45) taken from UNFCCC website <http://unfccc.int/secretariat/programmes/items/2098.php> Note: BRM, Bali Road Map; COP, Conference of the Parties; SBSTA, Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice; SBI, Subsidiary Body for Implementation Organizational structure taken from UNCCD website <http://www.unccd.int/secretariat/sns/docs/orgchart.pdf> Organizational structure taken from CBD website <http://www.cbd.int/secretariat/structure/>

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Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, Iss. 1 (2010), Pp. 155â&#x20AC;&#x201C;166

Sustainability of Water Resources for the Poor James Patrick Abulencia Manhattan College, Riverdale, NY Susan Gallardo De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines Nithin Abraham Manhattan College, Riverdale, NY Anne Caraccio Manhattan College, Riverdale, NY Nicholas Ruffini Manhattan College, Riverdale, NY Kevin McDonnell Manhattan College, Riverdale, NY Francis TaĂąala De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines

Abstract The availability of clean drinking water is a significant concern in many rural communities around the world. The contamination of resources directly affects locals by causing adverse health effects like diarrhea and other gastrointestinal diseases. Potential solutions such as sand filtration, chlorination, and solar disinfection are effective water purification technologies. Another method includes reverse osmosis, which is the main method for water filtration in the Philippines. However, mostly due to energy and cost concerns, these technologies are not feasible applications for poor communities. To address this need for sustainable water resources, our team proposed a personal growth and service-learning program in the Philippine town of Nagcarlan. Our goals were to employ the knowledge of engineering students to use their technical skills in order to serve society. Students involved in this program have developed a personal water filter to remove contaminants, such as heavy metals, using activated carbon derived from natural resources that are biodegradable and the product of recycling waste products. Sustainability of water resources is further achieved through a community outreach program with the poor communities. Successful personal water purification at one location has the potential to motivate the replication of the proposed solution to other impoverished towns within the

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Keywords: water resource sustainability, poor communities, engineering servicelearning, activated carbon, heavy metal removal.

1. Introduction One out of eight people today, or 884 million people across the globe, do not have access to clean water. For millions, local ponds, streams, irrigation canals, and unprotected dug wells are contaminated.i Among these people, approximately onethird live on less than $1 per day while more than two-thirds are living on less than $2 a day. More often than not, people living in impoverished communities pay 5 to 10 times more for a liter of water than wealthy people living in the same city.ii In the Philippines, a study by the Asian Development Bank in 2007 indicated that only about a third of river systems can be used as clean water sources while 58% of the groundwater sources are already contaminated.iii Potable water resources are critical aspect of any healthy, functioning community, and are of special significance to small rural communities like many found in the Philippines. Contaminated water may affect surrounding vegetation and agricultural stocks, which communities depend on for sustenance and for profitable harvest. Food grown using unclean water sources not only threatens the community that eats it, but it cannot be sold at market, further reducing earnings and productivity of the community inhabitants. Second, contaminated water can lead to waterborne bacterial and viral disease outbreaks, including diarrhea, malaria, and cholera, very serious, potentially-fatal illnesses. Finally, even if a community recognizes that their water source is unclean, the process of water purification is energy-intensive. Firewood and animal-waste is the most common fuel used to boil water, but these resources can become unsustainable and should not be relied upon as the sole method of water purification. To this end, addressing the problem of unsafe water must become a primary focus for affected communities.

2. Drinking Water in the Philippines The Philippines is one country with many communities in need of clean water. According to UNICEF, the number of Filipinos with no access to safe

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drinking water is approximately 17 million.iv Over 15% of the rural communities in the Philippines do not have access to potable water due to limited income. Most rural areas in the Philippines consider natural ground water as their source of drinking water. In particular, the domestic water requirement of Nagcarlan, in the province of Laguna, is supported by six water springs along the slope of Mt. Banahaw.v Due to abundant rainfall, this municipality has no water supply issues. The accumulated rainwater percolates through Mt. Banahaw as natural water springs. However, because it is not covered by the National Water Resources Board (NWRB), Nagcarlan has a poorly managed water distribution system, increasing the risk of water contamination. First, there is uncontrolled application of pesticides by several farmers planting on the top of Mt. Banahaw. Second, there are established houses and piggeries with poorly constructed septic tanks and waste disposal systems in the upland area. Lastly, the pipes that are used to distribute water to the municipality are at least 50 years old and sometimes run through polluted canals. Pesticides, heavy metals, and bacteria are the main contaminants of Nagcarlanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s water system. Therefore, there is a fervent need to purify water from the aforementioned sources in order to provide the community with clean drinking water. The primary method used for water purification in the Philippines is reverse osmosis. In Nagcarlan, there are already five major water-purifying stations and several distributors of imported bottled drinking water. However, most of the residents of Nagcarlan cannot afford to buy purified drinking water, and thus resort to a crude method of treatment whereby chlorine is dripped into water with no stirrer to distribute the chlorine. Presently, most people boil their water as a means of water purification. Other residents buy cheap faucet filters from the local market in Nagcarlan. Sometimes they even drink tap water directly from the faucet, causing public health problems like diarrhea and other gastro-intestinal diseases. In fact, the Rural Health Unit in Nagcarlan has reported 11,523 cases of intestinal diseases in 2007.vi Therefore, due to the present contamination of water sources and the large expense to purify them, there is a strong need to develop a low-cost water purification system fit for a community in Nagcarlan using low cost materials.

3. Potential Solutions There are several solutions to address this need for affordable water purification systems. One potential solution is the use of Rapid Sand Filtration (RSF). This technology uses sand to separate flocculated contaminants, preventing them from passing through into the then purified water.vii Although this seems to be an excellent candidate for use in rural communities due to its low cost, it has several disadvantages. First of all, Rapid RSF removes less pathogens compared to other filter methods.viii Second, these filters require a large amount of maintenance, namely the energy, labor, and effort required to backwash contaminants off of the filtration medium.ix Thus, RSF on its own would not be a good application for poor communities.

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A second approach is chlorination. The major problem with using this technology is that a large effort must be made to educate the community on its use. By-products of water chlorination may be harmful to humans, thus requiring great care to properly employ. Moreover, price is an issue, thus making sustained use impossible for communities with limited resources.x A third potential solution is the use of solar disinfection. Once again, this may appear to be an excellent candidate because sunlight is free; however, the cost and availability of materials to build these devices may be impractical for these poor communities.xi Also, the availability of continuous sunlight may be lacking during rainy seasons, a characteristic common for many of these communities in less developed nations. Finally, the logistics of employing solar disinfection make it difficult to implement. More specifically, it would require a central system with a single solar sill, and a distribution system to deliver water to members of the community. Thus, the resources and energy to create this necessary infrastructure are often prohibitive for these poor rural communities.

4. Specific Solutions 4.1 Characterization of Activated Carbon The use of activated carbon for water purification is an affordable and manageable solution to clean drinking water. Coconuts, in particular, are a great source for the activated carbon because they are abundant in the Philippines. The activated carbon generated possesses favorable characteristics. They can attain higher surface areas compared to commercially available activated carbon, making them a more effective material as an adsorbentxii, and have been shown to be more cost effective and equally successful at removing water pollutants than other methods.xiii As a specific solution, it was important to study the characteristics of activated carbon derived from coconut shell. This was accomplished by collecting approximately 642 kg of raw coconuts shells from the farmers of Nagcarlan region. These coconuts were not harvested from the trees themselves, and therefore the collected fallen fruit are considered waste material because they would have typically found little use. The processing of these fallen fruit involved the raw coconut shells being crushed to approximately one-inch pieces and screened to eliminate fine particles. A portion of the crushed coconut was then fed to the activation reactor, which was designed by the Industrial Technology & Development Institute (ITDI) of the Department of Science & Technology (DOST) of the Philippines. The shells were then ignited with kerosene prior to startup. Once the temperature reached 400째C, additional coconut was added until the reactor was filled to capacity. The activation process was carried out by supplying steam at a rate of 1.0-1.5. kg/hr to a temperature of 1000째C for a duration of twelve hours. After processing and activation, 94.75 kg of activated carbon was produced; this resulted in an overall yield of 14.76%.

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Figure 1: Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy of Activated Carbon derived from Coconut.

The physical characteristics of the activated carbon in this process were determined with FTIR and Iodine number analysis by identifying surface functional groups and total surface area, respectively. The FTIR analysis of the activated carbon from coconut shells, shown in Figure 1, revealed the presence of a very broad peak at 3400 cm-1. This suggested the presence of carbonyl compounds, which usually occur with very broad peaks at ranges 2500-3500 cm-1. These peaks suggested carboxylic acids and it derivatives. Appearance of a peak at 1130 cm -1, a short broad peak at 1640 cm-1, and a very small sharp peak at 1400 cm-1 referred to ketones, alkenes, and a group of alkanes or alkenes, respectively. Results from the Iodine number analysis provided a value of 1104 mg Iodine/g carbon. This number can be compared to the 600 to 1100 mg Iodine/g carbon measured for commercially available activated carbon. In addition, BET pore surface area was also measured to be 235 m2/g.

4.2 Removal of Heavy Metals with Activated Carbon The characterization of activated carbon revealed favorable results on surface functional groups and total surface area. This instigated the need to investigate its ability to adsorb heavy metals, such as arsenic, from drinking water. Heavy metals must be addressed because they are considered a major source of water contamination in poor communities.

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The rise of global industrialization has resulted in the generation of heavy metal wastewater, specifically zinc, cadmium, arsenic, lead, copper, and nickel. Plants and factories in countries that do not possess strict environmental regulations unscrupulously pollute nearby rivers and waterways, and the contaminants often find their way to the water sources of poor rural communities. Traditional chemical precipitation processes used to remove these heavy metals would not be feasible to be performed by communities with little resources or laboratory expertise. Thus, activated carbon from natural materials offers an alternative solution to this problem. In one example, performed by Ahmedna et al (2004), lead, copper, and zinc were removed from wastewater using steam and phosphoric acid activated nutshell carbons (derived from walnuts, pecans, and almonds). Their findings show that activated carbon generated from these nutshells performed better than activated carbon filters (made from coal) in removing the aforementioned heavy metals.xiv In a separate study performed by Manju et al (1998), copper-impregnated coconut husk carbons were used to remove arsenic from wastewater. It was discovered that activated carbon was able to successfully remove arsenic in a dose dependent manner. Moreover, they were able to show that the adsorbent may be reused after treatment with hydrogen peroxide in a nitric acid solution.xv Another study performed by Kadirvelu et al (2002) involved activated carbon produced from waste parthenium to aid in the removal of nickel (II) from aqueous solution. The results showed that Ni (II) was successfully removed using the activated carbon from the parthenium weeds, especially at increased pH levels. In addition, the activated carbon could be regenerated upon its treatment with hydrochloric acid.xvi These three studies demonstrate that activated carbon from various natural sources has the potential to remove heavy metals from water. It is important to note that the technology to generate this activated carbon is viable for poor communities because it is does not require sophisticated equipment, and these communities are often rich in the raw materials required to make them. However, future research in this area is still needed to examine activated carbon generation from the perspective of these poor communities.

5. Using Service Learning for Solutions To this end of generating cost-effective water-purifying solutions for poor, rural communities, a service learning project was created, comprised of a collaboration between chemical engineering students at Manhattan College in the United States and De La Salle University in the Philippines. This project utilized the aforementioned solutions to address this specific need for a water purification system in Nagcarlan. In particular, the solution formulated by the student team centers around a personal water filter comprised of activated carbon derived from coconut shell, housed in a bamboo shell. The most important characteristics of both these materials are that they are abundant in the Philippines, biodegradable and the

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product of recycling waste products, reusing a material that would otherwise be thrown away, therefore imparting minimal effects to the environment. Service learning is a teaching method employing the knowledge students have acquired in the classroom to meet the needs of a less-developed community. From a pedagogical perspective, it addresses many components in a studentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s education, resulting in opportunities for personal growth. Most undergraduate engineering programs focus on teaching the rudiments of their particular discipline, ultimately incorporating this collection of knowledge into a capstone course. A majority of these programs fail to underscore an engineerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s duty to serve society. Engineering education should not only train a student in the technical aspects of the practice, but also encourage him or her to use these skills to serve society. Service learning also helps build problem solving and critical thinking capabilities, it can help to enhancing a studentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ability to work in multidisciplinary teams, and service learning can provide practice in managing a project from conception to final goal. Furthermore, it helps to better understand cultural differences, develop communication and interpersonal skills, and encourage lifelong learning.xvii In this context, however, service learning has the advantage of maintaining a sustained supply of engineers eager to solve real-world problems. More specifically, engineering educators can always apply the technological aptitude, innovation, and creativity of their students to problems of social significance, ultimately helping a disadvantaged sector of society.

6. Sustainability and Replication 6.1 Community Outreach Program The Chemical Engineering Department of De La Salle University started its outreach program in Nagcarlan in May 2008 with an initial assessment of the water resources of Nagcarlan. The assessment consisted of an actual visit to the water sources/springs, as well as a group discussion with the Mayor and his staff. The discussion was facilitated by Department of Science and Technology Assistant Secretary Maria Lourdes Orijola. It was agreed that in order to have a sustainable supply of clean water, a comprehensive and integrated environmental management system (EMS) for the town should be set up. The planned EMS for Nagcarlan consists of not only assessing the water resources, but includes air quality management and solid wastes management as well. The first phase of the project, environmental education, was conducted in November 2009. More than one hundred participants attended this whole day activity. Officials from the 52 barangays of the town came to learn from the lectures. Youth representatives and women also joined in, taught by volunteer faculty members about the following topics: the 3Rs of solid waste management (reduce, reuse and recycle), the use of biofuels, and the leachate problem of landfills. As a result of the first phase, a waste audit of the town was conducted.

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Figure 2: Manhattan College and De La Salle University groups in Laguna, Philippines in December 2009. During the second stage, the use of waste coconut shell was identified as potentially recyclable. It was agreed to be used for activated carbon manufacture. The ITDI (Industrial Technology Development Institute) proven process for activated carbon manufacture was used in the project. The third phase was a consultative meeting with the townspeople to discuss two projects. One project is addressing climate change and the other project is on the development of personal water purifier. In the fall of 2009, the group from Manhattan College, with a group from De la Salle University (shown below in Figure 2), visited and presented their project in the Philippines.

6.2 Removal of Heavy Metals with Activated Carbon The proposed service learning project for the development of a personal water purifier is currently focused on the barangays (Filipino division for town) in Nagcarlan. However, if a programâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s outcome proves successful, then a replication to other towns and nations would be the next step towards solving the global problem of unavailability of potable drinking water. As mentioned earlier, several million Filipinos do not have access to safe drinking water, making it essential to implement similar programs in other poor communities throughout the Philippines. Similarly, the proposed solution can be extended to other nations stricken with water quality issues, such as India, by utilizing indigenous, natural resources, exemplified by the use of Philippineâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s natural resources of coconut shells and bamboo.

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Figure 3: Community Outreach Program with the people of Nagcarlan. In conclusion, finding effective solutions for clean drinking water may be a challenging undertaking. However, the proposed service learning project and the community outreach program to sustain water resources for the poor communities in the Philippines shows initiative at tackling this drinking water crisis.

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End Notes i

UNICEF & WHO, 2008

UNDP, 2006

iii

Angara, 2010

UNICEF, 2009

Orijola, 2009

vii

Rajala, 2003

viii

Sato, 2002

Blume, 2004

Luby, 2008

Keonig, 1967

xii

Hu 1999; Gratuito, 2008

xiii

Yang, 2006

xiv

Ahmedna et al, 2004

Manju et al, 1998

xvi

Kadirvelu et al, 2002

xvii

Eyler, 1999

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Bibliography Ahmedna, M. et.al., “The Use of Nutshell Carbons in Drinking Water Filters for Removal of Trace Metals”, Water Research, Vol. 38, pp.1062-1068, 2004. Angara, E. J. (2010, March 16). Harvesting rainwater. Business Mirror. Retrieved June 4, 2010, from http://businessmirror.com.ph/index.php?option=com_content&view=articl e&id=23014:harvesting-rainwater-&catid=28:opinion&Itemid=64 Blume, T., and Neis, U., “Improved Wastewater Disinfection by Ultrasonic PreTreatment”, Ultrasonics Sonochemistry, 11:333-336 (2004) Gratuito, M.K.B. et. al., “Production of Activated Carbon from Coconut Shell: Optimization Using Response Surface Methodology”, Bioresource Tech., 99:4887-4895 (2008) Hu, Z., and Srinivasan, M.P., “Preparation of High Surface Area Activated Carbons from Coconut Shell”, Microporous and Mesoporous Materials, 27:11-18 (1999) Kadirvelu,K. et al., “Activated carbon prepared from biomass as adsorbent: elimination of Ni(II) from aqueous solution”, Bioresource Technology, Vol. 81, pp.87-90, 2002. Kinetz, E. (2009, December 7). Tata Group launches water purifier for the masses. Washington Post. Retrieved December 15, 2009, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2009/12/07/AR2009120701004.html Koenig, L., “The Cost of Water Treatment by Coagulation, Sedimentation, and Rapid Sand Filtration”, J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 59:290-336 (1967) Luby et. al., “Difficulties in Bringing Point of Use Water Treatment to Scale in Rural Guatemala”, Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 78:382-387 (2008) Manju, G.N., et. al., “Evaluation of Coconut Husk Carbon for the Removal of Arsenic from Water”, Water Research, Vol. 32, pp. 3062-3070, 1998. Orijola, M. (2009). Water condition in Nagcarlan. Taguig, Philippines: Department of Science and Technology. Rajala, R.L., et. al., “Removal of Microbes from Municipal Wastewater Effluent by Rapid Sand Filtration and Subsequent UV Irradiation”, Water Sci Technol., 47:157-62 (2003) Sato et. al., “Performance of Nanofiltration for Arsenic Removal”, Water Research, 36:3371-3377 (2002) United Nations Development Programme. (2006). Human development report 2006. Retrieved June 3, 2010, from http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR06complete.pdf

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UNICEF. (2009). UN, RP and Spain launch Joint Programme on water services for poor Filipinos. Retrieved December 15, 2009, from http://www.unicef.org/philippines/8891_10480.html World Health Organization and United Nations Childrenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Fund Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation (JMP). (2008). Progress on drinking water and sanitation: Special focus on sanitation. Retrieved June 3, 2010, from http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/monitoring/jmp_report_7_10 _lores.pdf Yang, J. Solving Global Water Crisis â&#x20AC;&#x201C; New Paradigms in Wastewater and Water Treatment. Sacramento, CA: Earth Ecosciences Publishing Company 2006

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Understanding Sustainability through Traditional Maasai Pastoral Systems in Southern Kenya Emma Impink Africana Studies, Biological Science Barnard College, New York City* Kaitlyn M. Gaynor Environmental Biology, Evolutionary Biology of the Human Species Barnard College, New York City† Abstract In the developed world, we tend to think of sustainability as a newly articulated solution to challenges of environmental resource degradation and issues of social and economic injustice. However, pastoralism as traditionally practiced by the Maasai of southern Kenya is tied closely to the land and responds to climatic variation within the region. In the early 20th century, colonial policies began to alter traditional land use systems, compromising inherently sustainable arrangements and isolating populations from the land. This trend has continued somewhat in contemporary development practice. As a result of a shift toward privatization of land tenure, traditional pastoral systems are no longer viable. While studying abroad with The School for Field Studies, we became aware of the struggle many Maasai face as they attempt to continue pastoralism in an increasingly hostile environment. Ultimately, development efforts in the region should focus not on implementing exogenous concepts of ‗sustainability‘ but rather on supporting and adapting systems that are already in place. Author’s Note Kaitlyn received an email from Consilience while we were in Kenya. That night, we started talking about sustainability in the context of the Maasai. While we come from different disciplinary backgrounds—Emma is focused on Africana Studies while Kaitlyn‘s background is in Environmental Biology—in Kenya we had both come to understand the inextricable relationship between people and conservation in the developing world. We wanted to share our thoughts on issues of sustainable development, as well as some of the more formative experiences that contributed to our understanding of the complex nature of social and environmental issues in southern Kenya. We‘ve both developed a strong connection to the area. Emma plans to return to southern Kenya and research sustainable agriculture, ultimately working toward a graduate degree in the field. After spending a year in western Kenya studying the behavioral ecology of blue monkeys, Kaitlyn plans to pursue graduate education in the field of conservation biology. She will continue to engage in projects that integrate conservation and development efforts.

Keywords: Kenya, pastoralism, sustainability, land use change, land tenure

email: ei2126@barnard.edu

†

email: kmg2116@columbia.edu

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Figure 1: The authors, Emma and Kaitlyn, at Tsavo West National Park In the developed world, sustainability tends to be thought of as a newly articulated solution to challenges of environmental resource degradation and issues of social and economic injustice. Out of the concept of sustainability, which emphasizes meeting â&#x20AC;&#x2022;the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs,â&#x20AC;&#x2013;i a discourse of sustainable development has emerged among scholars and practitioners. Often, the principles of sustainable development are applied from outside as a means to promote social and economic change in the developing world. This implies that notions of sustainability are new, when in reality many traditional systems are founded on similar principles and have been operating as such for hundreds, if not thousands, of years. One such system exists among the pastoral Maasai, who sustainably practiced multi-faceted land use systems and resource management strategies in southern Kenya up until the colonial period. While studying abroad in southern Kenya with the School for Field Studies in 2009, we learned in the classroom about the history of pastoralism in the area while witnessing firsthand the struggle of local people to sustain and shift traditional pastoral systems to increasingly privatized land tenure regimes and scarce resources due to both shifting land use and climate change.

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Figure 2: Beneath Mount Kilimanjaro, Maasai women carry water to their homes. photo courtesy of Connor Jandreau. We became interested in the question of how external notions of development have compromised the ability of the Maasai to retain their traditionally sustainable land use practices and how local communities can play a role in future sustainable development efforts. During our time in Kenya, we realized that development efforts should focus not on implementing exogenous concepts of â&#x20AC;&#x2014;sustainability,â&#x20AC;&#x2DC; but rather on supporting systems that are already in place. Further, local actors must drive these efforts to ensure long-term viability. Since the colonial period, land access and use in Kenya have largely been out of the control of local populations. People have been alienated from their land in the name of colonial development and, following independence, environmental protection. In the last fifty years, development projects have largely continued this trend, further isolating local people from involvement in decisions about land use. Maasai pastoral systems were oriented around Kenyaâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s typically bimodal rains. During the rainy season, pasture was readily available and livestock could graze freely. However, in the dry season, livestock depended on permanently watered areas, such as swamps or streams. Elders regulated seasonal access to natural resources in an effort to prevent overgrazing and pasture depletion. Individuals were fined if they accessed pasture out of turn. This system, in which land was held in common, allowed pastoralists, their livestock and wildlife to share the same landscape. The arrival of British colonists at the turn of the 20th century changed the way that the Maasai and other ethnic groups accessed land. For the first time, Maasai

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land use was confined to relatively arid areas in the southern part of the country. The fertile grasslands of the Rift Valley were granted to British settler farmers who, the British government claimed, would use the land more efficiently. Individual ownership was considered more productive and less destructive than communal land use. A discourse of environmentalism emerged somewhat concurrently, justifying the alienation of native land for white settler cultivation as promoting responsible use. In the 1960s, the newly independent Kenyan government established group ranches, a system of land tenure that attempted to combine aspects of traditional communal land access with individualized ownership. Group ranches are areas of land that registered members hold in common; a committee of elected officials manages them. They were initially established in an effort to encourage sedentarization of Maasai grazing practices and to promote a transition to the commercial beef industry. However, ineffective management has led to the breakdown of group ranches, with members advocating for individual ownership of smaller parcels, resulting in the subdivision of group ranch land. Individualized land tenure compromises the viability of pastoral systems based on common land access. Further, the influx of non-Maasai migrants from nearby agricultural areas has led to an increase in irrigated cultivation, a land use that competes for space and resources with pastoralism and one for which the rangelands are inherently ill-suited. These relatively recent changes in land tenure and subsequent changes in land use have compromised the ability of traditional systems to adapt to drought and other disturbances. While working on directed research projects as part of our semester, we both spent time in remote rural areas, where through personal interaction and observation we came to understand the effects of changing land use on pastoral systems. We have included journal entries that recount specific instances through which we began to understand the complexities of these issues, with our different academic backgrounds shaping our perspectives of the situation in Kenya. As a student of environmental biology, Kaitlyn focused on how the natural world has shaped human lifestyle and the challenges that humans and wildlife face in sharing an ecosystem, while Emma, an African Studies major, took an interest in modern changes to traditional practices and the role that the Maasai people will play in deciding the future of the region.

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Figure 3: Kaitlyn and a fellow student walk across the drought-stricken lands of Olgulului-Olalarashi group ranch. Olgulului-Olalarashi Group Ranch, April 18 Kaitlyn: Kenya is currently facing its most severe drought in decades, and as a result, livestock are dying, crops are failing, and people are suffering. The dust is incredible. We canâ&#x20AC;&#x;t take a car ride into town without being covered in it, and soccer games become engulfed in a thick cloud within minutes. When it does rain, it is only for fifteen minutes at a time, and it ends as suddenly as it begins. The rain is always followed by a still calm, and all around our camp the streams come to life, as the soil here doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x;t have the capacity to hold much water. Within an hour, though, the ground is dry and dusty again and the air has lost of its humidity. In the past few days, walking around the rangelands as part of a mapping project has made the impact of the drought startlingly real. Scanning the flat landscape, there are no people, animals, or plants as far as I can seeâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;only Mount Kilimanjaro looming over a completely barren landscape. I have seen too many dead cattle and wild animals to count, and the smell of their rotting carcasses in the sun is overwhelming. The traditional Maasai homesteads that I have encountered are like ghost towns. People have fled abruptly, leaving behind single shoes and plastic bottles. When I have encountered homesteads with residents, they are packing up their belongings and rounding up what surviving livestock they still own, but most have no destination in mind.

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Figure 4: A dead bull, left behind when its owners abandoned their homestead (visible in background) in response to worsening drought conditions. Photo courtesy of Connor Jandreau. Under traditional land use systems, the families Kaitlyn encountered would rarely have remained in barren rangelands through such extreme conditions. It is also highly unlikely that the area would have been overgrazed beyond the point of regeneration, as pastoral systems operated on rotational pasture use. However, as land subdivision continues to occur in the Maasai group ranches, land available for grazing continues to disappear and water resources become scarcer ultimately marginalizing families who rely on pastoralism as their primary livelihood strategy. Increased subdivision will likely result in an expansion of irrigated agriculture. While viable on relatively small parcels of land, irrigated agricultureâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s high water requirements compromise an already water-scarce region. Diversion of rivers takes away critical resources from people, livestock and wildlife. Further, irrigated agriculture leads to salinization, nutrient depletion and erosion of the already-nutrient poor, thin layer of topsoil. The use of agro-chemicals and fertilizers also pollutes waterways. Confined to smaller grazing areas, pastoralists may face increased livestock depredation, disease transmission, and competition for water and forage. Also, at high densities, livestock can strongly influence vegetation species composition and soil characteristics, most notably compacting soil and disrupting its water absorption capacity.

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Figure 5: The ability of soil to support vegetation is severely compromised by drought. Those who continue to practice pastoralism clearly understand and appreciate the need for maintaining open areas for pasture as they watch their cattle die of starvation and their food and income sources run dry. Even in the increasingly subdivided group ranches, the concepts behind 'traditional' grazing systems persist in new contexts. In Kuku group ranch, near our field school, recently introduced irrigated agriculture has presented the Maasai with new challenges for resource and land management, and we realized that in times of sufficient rainfall pastoral communities maintain aspects of traditional systems usually practiced on a much broader scale. Kimana Group Ranch, February 20, Emma: While visiting a friend‟s house, I was able to see how much aspects of the „traditional‟ systems continue to shape contemporary life. While many people in Kuku practice small-scale irrigated agriculture, the mechanisms that support pastoralism remain in place. As my friend showed me his house and we walked around to meet his neighbors, I noticed that all of the bomas (Maasai homesteads) were concentrated in one area. My friend‟s boma and his neighbors‟ bomas formed a line beyond which no one else had seemed to build anything. “Do you see the line,” he said, “formed by the houses? No one is allowed to build past these bomas. That is pasture for the ng‟ombe (Swahili for cows).” Everyone in the community had agreed to leave the area open for grazing. The land use agreement that Emma‘s friend described is one example of how the community has adjusted traditional systems of land and resource management to accommodate the continued practice of pastoralism in the new subdivided context

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Figure 6: A herd settles in for the evening. of land privatization. Emma also met several Maasai who farm small plots of land and bring their herds to graze on remaining vegetation after the harvests are complete. In some instances, individuals will sell grass to others or rent space on a neighborâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s plot of land in an attempt to provide for livestock herds. The expansion of irrigated agriculture in the group ranches is one of many threats to traditional pastoralism. The Maasai have been further alienated from their land through the creation of protected wildlife areas by the central Kenyan government, largely from the mid-1940s through the 1970s. When land was traditionally kept open for grazing, humans, livestock, and wildlife were able to share the same landscape with minimal conflict. However, the British colonial government applied a Western preservationist national park model to Kenyan wildlife, excluding pastoralists from protected areas. The swamps of Amboseli National Park, for example, were crucial dry season grazing areas that facilitated the continued practice of an extensive transhumant grazing system. While an abundance of space had previously limited human-wildlife interactions, the creation of national parks and the universal ban on poaching intensified human-wildlife conflict and negative attitudes toward wildlife. The Maasai continued to bear the burden of wildlife costs without reaping any benefits from wildlife tourism. The emphasis of our study abroad program was on wildlife management, but the more we learned about the history of conservation in southern Kenya, the more we realized it was less about managing animals than about engaging local people.

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Figure 7: In the absence of other water sources during the dry season, many Maasai herders illegally bring their cattle to graze and drink in the swamps of Amboseli National Park. Kimana Group Ranch, March 13, Kaitlyn: During our program, we have been speaking a lot about human-wildlife conflict, and the growing interface between humans and other animals that has accompanied the shift toward agriculture and sedentarization in the Kenyan rangelands. For an assignment for our Environmental Policy course, we split up into groups and walked through agricultural areas talking to farmers about wildlife. One man had his entire crop of tomatoes eaten by 15 elephants the previous night and had no other source of income for the season. A pastoralist had lost several goats to a clan of hyenas last week. Another man was near tears as he told us how gazelle had raided his crops recently and his children had gone to bed hungry every night since. He lamented the injustice of the system; the Kenya Wildlife Service does not compensate farmers for wildlife damages to crops, but they could have put him in jail for years if he had killed an animal in defense of his property. Of the people that I spoke to, not a single one could think of any benefit that wildlife brought them. They all expressed the idea that wildlife should be confined in fenced reserves for the sole purpose of tourism. For some of the people who live in Kenya, wildlife is a threat to meeting basic needs; they wonâ&#x20AC;&#x;t support conservation efforts until they reap tangible benefits from wildlife. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x;s easy for us to tell them that wildlife is worth conserving, but the people here have a hard time hearing it when they see development and conservation as mutually exclusive.

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Figure 8: A lion stalks a bull, too weak to stand, after being left behind in Amboseli National Park by its owner. Photo courtesy of Connor Jandreau. As students of wildlife management, we supported the establishment of national parks and the conservation of wildlife, but many of us had not thought about the impacts conservation has on local communities. After speaking to community members, we all came away with a sense that projects established without the consultation of communities have no potential for long-term success. For example, in 1997, a grant from the European Union financed the construction of two electric fences within the Kimana group ranch to enclose an area of highly concentrated irrigated agriculture near our field school.ii The fences were intended to reduce human-wildlife conflict by preventing wildlife access to crops. However, built without the consultation or involvement of the local community, the fences rapidly fell into disrepair after their construction in 2000. Administration of the fences was handed over to the community without adequate training and without establishment of localized management structures. Because fence construction had been completely overseen by the government, maintenance and repairs were assumed to also be governmental responsibilities and were thus neglected. Community members further damaged fences as they attempted to access critical water sources for their confined livestock. The lack of community involvement compromised the success of the Kimana fences. Frustration with being disconnected from development projects remains prevalent among local populations, as Emma observed while researching rangeland degradation in the group ranches. Kuku Group Ranch April 12, Emma: The directed research project I am working on looks at rangeland degradation, both as measured by several standard vegetation sampling techniques and as perceived by local community members. We are conducting interviews with people who were sitting outside their homes, working in the fields, or tending their cows, in an attempt to understand their perception of the connection between changing land use and altered land conditions. In the context of the rapidly worsening drought, some of our questions seem almost disrespectful; “Have you noticed a change in the range condition in the group ranch?” “Has the amount of rainfall increased or decreased?” Just look around, our interviewees have said. Look at my cows. You can see the

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answer to these questions. As our translators, often young men from the community who had been to or were just beginning university repeat these answers back to us, I feel the questions are pointless. One conversation in particular remains seared in my mind, the last interview of a long morning. Most of our interviewees are older, so when Daniel Kahenja (my local translator) spotted a person who looked about my age, I was hesitant to speak to him. The questions Daniel translated into Maa had become familiar, as had the answers. Most people noticed a decrease in the amount of rainfall, as well as an increase in the amount of conflict over water, and saw these as causes of rangeland degradation. Most people suggested limiting the cutting of trees as a way to mitigate soil erosion; most people were hesitant to reduce their herd size. And while this young man gave answers that fit in with the other interviewees, he seemed distracted. I read the last question out loud to Daniel, as I had done for all the others, and he translated into Maa; “Thank you so much for answering our questions and taking time out of your day. Do you have any questions for me? Anything you would like to ask?” Most interviewees had asked questions like „Where are you from?‟ „What will this research accomplish?‟ I was familiar with those. I had answers for those. But the question the young man asked me was a total surprise. “What are you doing here?” he asked, in English. “Why are you here? Do people from other countries come and ask these questions in your country? Do you do this kind of work in your own country? Or do you just come here to Kenya and do it? Why am I not doing this? Shouldn't I be the one asking these questions?" I was stunned. Not only had he articulated all of the quandaries I had recently been having about the role of foreign researchers, but he had stood there, answering my questions, presumably thinking these thoughts during the entire questionnaire. I fumbled through an answer, saying something like 'Yes...I think you should be doing this work. I'm here to learn about these issues so I can work on them in the future. And yes, I do think about how to get involved in my community. One of our teachers on this program grew up right around here and he felt like you did and he studied here and is a teacher now. You can do that too. You should do that...I want to figure out someway to work on these issues with people like you..." It was totally unsettling. This experience highlights the importance of local involvement, a key issue in development work, one that we repeatedly encountered as we spoke to community members about conservation and development projects. After Emma's conversation with the young man, we were directly confronted with challenging issues and began to critically ask ourselves about the role of foreign researchers and development projects in Kenya. Though the directed research project produced informative results about the state of rangeland degradation, it was designed from an outsider's view of local issues and the results were presented to the Maasai from a Western perspective in a manner that may not have been most useful for designing responsive action. Emma's directed research experience, and particularly her conversation with the young man, reinforced our belief in the importance of local involvement in development projects. For example, the simple questions that Emma was asking in her interviews would likely have yielded more substantive responses had they been formulated and asked by people who had been living in the area for their whole lives. Ultimately, any lasting changes must come from within, rather than be applied externally according to Western notions of development. Although not articulated as such, sustainability has existed in the Maasai rangelands for thousands of years. Only recently, as a product of changes in land tenure and land use, have the pastoral Maasai been unable to bounce back from drought and resource depletion. As college students from the United States, we knew little about the inner workings of the pastoral system and were thinking about ways to 'introduce' sustainable practices

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based on our own broad academic understanding of sustainable development. It became clear that local people must define any 'new' concept of sustainability, which must be implemented in the context of existing practices and views.

Figure 9: On a nature walk with SFS students, Daniel Kaaka discusses the negative environmental consequences of deforestation in the Maasai group ranches. Daniel Kaaka, one of the staff members on our program, provides an example of how the desire among young people to better their communities has the potential to drive development efforts. As a high school student living in the group ranches, Daniel received a scholarship that enabled him to participate in the School for Field Studies program alongside the American students like ourselves. He was able to integrate the programs' concepts of ecology, wildlife and rangeland management, and environmental policy with his own knowledge of the region where he had grown up, formulating unique solutions to the socioeconomic, political, and environmental threats to pastoralism. Daniel's continued involvement with SFS has allowed him to conduct meaningful research and continue an academic exchange

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with American students; he recently completed a degree in Wildlife Management from Moi University. One of our local interpreters, John Mwato is studying Veterinary Medicine in Nairobi in an effort to help members of his community maintain healthier and more productive cattle, with the ultimate aim of supporting herd size reduction in an effort to reduce rangeland degradation. While this is an unpopular concept, given the importance herd size has in society, Mwato hopes his position as a Vet will encourage individuals to consider it. Ultimately, it will be up to committed local people like Daniel and Mwato to help adapt the existing pastoral system and move forward in the context of relatively new political and economic institutions at both the local and national levels, which have drastically altered land tenure and resource use. The involvement of informed local community members is crucial to making development projects truly sustainable. The Maasai's knowledge of the traditional resource management system, as well as their awareness of local environmental conditions, will allow them to reorient their lifestyles to address new challenges, building off of what is already in place. However, transitioning to more sustainable land use systems is not a simple process. Lower-impact agricultural practices are complicated by issues of land ownership and larger market forces. Small-scale farmers who do not own the land they cultivate are often financially unable to change their growing practices to methods that may promote sustainability in the long term but require initial investment. Further, farmers that lease their land for short periods of time are hesitant to invest in long-term improvements. Agricultural reform thus depends as much on land ownership and varied marketing opportunities as it does on local awareness and availability of technology. Local involvement in future development projects is crucial, as local knowledge of the complex environmental, social, cultural and economic issues will be essential in formulating and implementing lasting solutions, and local support of new initiatives is necessary to drive their long-term success. The School for Field Studies is in a unique position to enable committed and passionate youth, like the young man who confronted Emma, to become involved in the development of their communities. Through locally-implemented changes to traditional pastoral practices, the Maasai of southern Kenya will be able to adapt to the challenges posed by land use changes and environmental conditions in the region and to ultimately reinvigorate the truly sustainable foundations of their pastoral lifestyle.

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Endnotes i

WCED.

Okello and D’Amour, 2008.

Works Cited Okello, M. M. and D‘Amour, D. E. ―Agricultural expansion within Kimana electric fences and implications for natural resource conservation around Amboseli National Park, Kenya.‖ 2008. Journal of Arid Environments 72. 2179-2192 World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED). ―Report of the WCED.‖ 1987. United Nations Documents. Accessed 21 Feb. 2010. < http://www.un-documents.net/a42r187.htm>.

Consilience: The Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, Iss. 1 (2010), Pp. 181–193

Goma: Centers for Internally Displaced Persons Katherine Fairfax Wright* Abstract The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo has claimed an estimated 5 million lives—it is the deadliest clash since World War II. Despite a 2003 peace accord, fighting between militia groups and Congolese armed forces continues. As a result, according to UN OCHA estimates, by the end of 2009 there were still nearly 2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), the majority of whom are located within the province of North Kivu. In response to this crisis, UNICEF, in cooperation with local and international NGOs as well as governmental institutions, has set up various provisional settlements for the displaced population. The emergency response mechanism for the IDPs focuses on four areas: child survival, water/sanitation, education, and protection.

Keywords: Democratic Republic of Congo; Internally Displaced Persons.

1. Lighting strikes over Lake Kivu, the body of water that divides DR Congo from Rwanda. On the lake’s northwestern shores, the North Kivu region of the DRC remains the epicenter of the country’s armed conflict and humanitarian crisis.

email: katy.f.wright@gmail.com

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2. To stave off roadside attacks, especially while traveling through rebel-occupied territory outside the provincial capital of Goma, declarations of peaceful intentions are posted in unarmored UN and NGO vehicles.

3. A volcanic mountain range stretches across the horizon behind one of the IDP camps. Seismic activity adds yet another threat to the region窶馬ot only are gas emissions a risk on land and in the lake, but it was less than a decade ago that rivers

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of lava from Nyiragongo, one of the most active volcanoes in the world, smothered large portions of the provincial capital Goma, which lies only 12 miles away.

4. As part of UNICEF rapid response, shelters are constructed for each family in the camp. According to OCHA estimates, over 1,000,000 persons have been displaced within the North Kivu region alone.

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5. A boy stands in front of his familyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s shelter, roofed with a waterproof and UV reflective tarp. The IDPs are also provided with basic household items; because many have had to flee quickly and travel far, few arrive with even the most essential personal belongings.

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6. Children clap and dance in a circle during â&#x20AC;&#x2022;Espaces enfants,â&#x20AC;&#x2013; a program facilitated by UNICEF staff and counselors to provide the thousands of displaced children with engaging activity and entertainment.

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7. More games during ―Espaces enfants.‖ These ―child-friendly‖ spaces in the IDP camps provide a comfortable, supportive zone in which the children can relax, interact with each other, and learn life-skills.

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8. A boy overlooks his peers while they play. Child survival is another pillar of the UNICEF program, including vaccinations and therapeutic and supplementary feeding centers.

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9. Looking out to the water tap from inside the Save the Children tent, which serves to identify displaced children and reunite them with their families. Part of the UNICEF mission also focuses on identifying children associated with armed groups and reintegrating them into society.

10. Water and sanitation are fundamental elements of a functioning IDP camp. A clean water supply and latrines must be set up promptly. Here, two boys start on

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their journey home after filling their jerry cans at the watering hole where UNICEF fills the water trucks. The trucks carry the water to dispensaries where it is transferred to large water bladders that keep water borne diseases at bay.

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11. Camp ―gardeners‖ ensure functioning paths, tents, water drainage, and so forth—a difficult task in an area that is suddenly required to house many thousands of people, without prior infrastructure.

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12. The Fédération des Scouts de la République Démocratique du Congo (FESCO) arrives at the IDP camp and survey the situation. Among other pursuits, the FESCO scouts have maintained a sustained focus on health care and community development, and more specifically, the reintegration of former child soldiers.

13. School supplies find expedient storage in the principal’s office of a school built for displaced youth. With more than a quarter-million school-aged children uprooted

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by war, aid organizations have effectively had to assemble, on a provisionary basis, entire primary and secondary school systems.

14. When brick and mortar buildings such as these cannot be constructed in time to meet the demand of the swelling IDP population, temporary classroom facilities are fabricated from plastic sheeting stretched across wooden frames.

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15. Above, a very full classroom at the school. UNICEF provides training for displaced teachers, but even with a school and the teachers in place, the organizing of so many children among appropriate classes remains an ongoing logistical challenge.