Situaciรณn de la bolsa chilena en el contexto global
1
MEDICIÓN RIESGO GLOBAL
2
PIB
3250 SPX EARNINGS
2250
1250
250
03/2018
09/2017
03/2017
09/2016
03/2016
09/2015
03/2015
09/2014
03/2014
09/2013
03/2013
09/2012
SPX
03/2012
09/2011
03/2011
09/2010
03/2010
09/2009
03/2009
09/2008
03/2008
09/2007
03/2007
09/2006
03/2006
09/2005
03/2005
09/2004
03/2004
09/2003
03/2003
09/2002
03/2002
09/2001
03/2001
09/2000
LA BOLSA AMERICANA ESTÁ SOBRE VALORADA SPX vs SPX Earnings 45
2750 40
35
30
1750
25
20
15
750 10
5
0
PIB vs Market Cap SPX / EE.UU. (USD)
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Market Cap SPX
3
FLUJOS FF.MM. y ETF Octubre 31, 2018 1 sem 1 mes 3m YTD 1 año 3 años
TOTAL EMERG. 152 918 3,703 14,001 20,833 93,572
ETF FLOWS GLOBAL LATAM EMERG. 184 -32 940 -22 3,828 -125 14,076 -75 21,252 -419 92,693 879
ASIA exJAPÓN 38 -104 162 -338 345 4,327
JAPÓN -2,351 -1,578 4,844 41,088 52,834 123,209
EUROPA DES. -740 -1,028 -1,693 -12,053 -10,980 3,247
US 10,973 8,256 57,627 134,189 182,959 548,509
MUTUAL FUND FLOWS PERÍODO
TOTAL EMERG.
GLOBAL EMERG.
LATAM
ASIA exJAPÓN
EUROPA DES.
US
Octubre Septiembre Agosto Julio Junio Mayo Abril Marzo Febrero Enero
-4,243 -4,874 -3,356 -5,075 -3,864 -3,754 12,340 5,872 11,616 26,474
-2,848 -3,415 -1,782 -3,187 -3,634 -3,457 5,763 3,495 7,361 18,023
-324 -58 -102 -211 -101 247 883 1,285 851 386
-1,021 -1,187 -1,347 -1,534 331 332 5,714 1,005 3,382 7,428
-6,982 -3,647 -3,720 -8,125 -9,095 -9,364 -12,042 -7,822 5,164 11,561
-12,560 -15,378 -8,709 -9,666 -9,620 23,260 -2,454 -15,560 -35,304 22,896
31,136 65,210 -4,443 -73,801 -25,002 -17,342 51,597 -34,190 84,112
16,319 56,929 20,578 -26,421 -8,766 3,808 46,432 1,198 55,045
2,856 3,960 1,136 -5,996 -6,037 -8,651 -240 -7,426 1,842
13,103 7,584 -25,445 -38,562 -4,447 -2,767 8,590 -17,387 19,609
-44,072 24,733 -106,116 130,987 15,021 48,420 -13,740 -7,956 -10,256
-63,095 2,176 -31,564 -138,259 116,111 123,858 -9,912 18,322 33,467
Acum. 2018 Acum. 2017 Acum. 2016 Acum. 2015 Acum. 2014 Acum. 2013 Acum. 2012 Acum. 2011 Total 2010
4
PROYECCIÓN UTILIDADES GEOGRÁFICA 31/10/2018
Nombre MSCI WORLD S&P 500 INDEX MSCI AC EUROPE MSCI JAPAN MSCI EM MSCI EM ASIA MSCI EM FAR EAST MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA MSCI BRAZIL MSCI CHILE
Precio P/B P / B Prom P / U UPA UPA UPA P / U e P / U e P / U e Var Util Var Util Var Util Actual Actual 15A Prom 15A 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 1997 2712 422 984 936 467 412 2650 2024 1583
2.25 3.23 1.61 1.28 1.44 1.40 1.32 1.96 2.05 1.71
2.11 2.77 1.80 1.45 1.69 1.69 1.61 1.85 1.68 2.00
18.52 18.64 19.46 31.46 13.47 14.43 13.47 15.88 17.42 20.09
132.5 163.3 32.7 79.7 86.1 42.3 39.3 196.1 156.5 100.5
144.7 179.2 35.8 83.0 95.4 46.7 43.1 235.1 191.8 114.8
157.2 196.3 38.5 87.0 106.2 52.4 48.4 254.2 204.5 123.9
15.1 16.6 12.9 12.4 10.9 11.0 10.5 13.5 12.9 15.7
13.8 15.1 11.8 11.8 9.8 10.0 9.6 11.3 10.6 13.8
12.7 13.8 11.0 11.3 8.8 8.9 8.5 10.4 9.9 12.8
16% 22% 7% 12% 6% 4% 5% 9% 13% 10%
9% 10% 9% 4% 11% 10% 10% 20% 23% 14%
9% 10% 7% 5% 11% 12% 12% 8% 7% 8%
5
RENTA FIJA INTERNACIONAL
6
RENTA FIJA INTERNACIONAL
TASAS DE INTERÉS AMERICANO – 10y / 2y
7
RENTA FIJA INTERNACIONAL
TLT
LQD
JNK
EMB
8
ESTADOS UNIDOS
9
EE.UU. EE.UU.
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC
INFLAC
INTERES
RENT.%
2000
3.7%
-4.2%
2.4%
3.4%
6.50%
---
2001
0.8%
-3.8%
1.3%
2.8%
1.75%
---
2002
1.9%
-4.5%
-1.5%
1.6%
1.25%
-24.0%
2003
3.0%
-4.7%
-3.5%
2.3%
1.00%
26.0%
2004
4.4%
-5.7%
-4.6%
2.7%
2.25%
9.0%
2005
3.5%
-6.4%
-2.6%
3.4%
4.30%
3.0%
2006
2.9%
-6.7%
-1.9%
3.2%
5.00%
14.0%
2007
2.2%
-5.4%
-1.2%
2.9%
4.25%
5.0%
2008
0.4%
-4.7%
-3.2%
3.9%
0.25%
-38.0%
2009
-2.6%
-2.7%
-10.1%
-0.4%
0.25%
23.0%
2010
2.9%
-3.2%
-9.0%
1.6%
0.25%
12.8%
2011
1.8%
-3.0%
-8.7%
3.2%
0.25%
-0.2%
2012
2.8%
-2.8%
-7.0%
2.1%
0.25%
15.2%
2013
1.9%
-2.4%
-4.1%
1.5%
0.25%
29.7%
2014
2.4%
-2.4%
-2.8%
1.6%
0.25%
13.5%
2015
2.4%
-2.5%
-2.6%
0.1%
0.50%
1.3%
2016
1.5%
-2.4%
-3.1%
1.3%
0.75%
12.0%
2017
2.3%
-2.4%
-3.4%
2.1%
1.50%
21.7%
2018
2.9%
-2.5%
-4.0%
2.5%
2.50%
3.1%
2019
2.5%
-2.5%
-4.7%
2.4%
3.10%
2020
1.9%
-2.5%
-4.9%
2.3%
3.05% 10
SPY – Mensual L/P
11
SPY – Semanal 4y
12
GESTIÓN ASIA EMERGENTE
13
CHINA CHINA
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC
INFLAC
INTERES
RENT.%
var.T.C
2000
8.0%
1.9%
-2.8%
1.0%
3.5%
---
---
2001
7.5%
1.5%
-2.6%
-0.3%
3.5%
---
---
2002
8.3%
2.7%
-2.9%
-0.4%
3.0%
---
---
2003
9.5%
3.1%
-2.4%
3.2%
3.0%
---
---
2004
10.1%
4.0%
-1.6%
2.4%
5.5%
3.0%
-0.2%
2005
11.3%
5.9%
-1.2%
1.8%
5.6%
11.0%
-2.5%
2006
12.7%
8.6%
-0.8%
1.5%
6.1%
83.0%
-3.2%
2007
14.2%
9.7%
0.6%
4.8%
7.5%
55.0%
-6.5%
2008
9.6%
9.1%
-0.4%
5.9%
5.3%
-49.0%
-6.4%
2009
9.2%
4.9%
-2.3%
-0.7%
5.3%
45.0%
0.0%
2010
10.4%
3.9%
-1.7%
3.3%
5.8%
2.0%
-3.2%
2011
9.3%
1.8%
-1.1%
5.4%
6.6%
-19.1%
-4.7%
2012
7.7%
2.3%
-1.7%
2.7%
6.0%
19.1%
-1.1%
2013
7.7%
1.9%
-1.8%
2.6%
6.0%
-2.2%
-2.9%
2014
7.3%
2.1%
-1.8%
2.0%
5.6%
11.4%
2.6%
2015
6.9%
2.7%
-2.6%
1.4%
4.4%
-12.9%
4.5%
2016
6.7%
1.8%
-3.0%
2.0%
4.4%
1.1%
7.1%
2017
6.9%
1.4%
-3.5%
1.6%
4.4%
36.2%
-6.3%
2018
6.6%
0.5%
-4.0%
2.2%
4.4%
-12.2%
6.0%
2019
6.3%
0.1%
-4.0%
2.3%
4.4%
2020
6.2%
0.5%
-4.2%
2.3%
4.4% 14
COREA / TAIWÁN COREA
PIB
CTA CTE CTA FISC INFLAC INTERES var.T.C
TAIWÁN
PIB
CTA CTE CTA FISC INFLAC INTERES var.T.C
2000
8.5%
2.4%
1.1%
3.2%
5.4%
11.5%
2000
5.8%
2.8%
-2.4%
1.7%
4.8%
5.4%
2001
3.8%
1.8%
1.2%
3.2%
4.0%
3.6%
2001
-2.2%
6.2%
-4.3%
-1.7%
2.3%
5.4%
2002
7.0%
1.0%
3.3%
3.7%
4.3%
-9.7%
2002
4.2%
8.7%
-4.3%
0.8%
1.5%
-1.1%
2003
3.1%
2.0%
0.4%
3.4%
3.8%
-0.1%
2003
3.4%
9.8%
-2.8%
-0.1%
1.4%
-1.8%
2004
4.6%
4.1%
2.7%
3.0%
3.3% -12.7%
2004
6.1%
5.8%
-0.2%
1.3%
1.8%
-6.5%
2005
4.0%
2.3%
3.4%
2.8%
3.8%
-2.4%
2005
4.7%
4.9%
-0.1%
2.3%
2.3%
3.4%
2006
5.2%
1.4%
3.9%
2.2%
4.5%
-8.0%
2006
5.4%
7.0%
-0.1%
0.6%
2.8%
-0.7%
2007
5.5%
1.0%
4.9%
2.5%
5.0%
0.6%
2007
6.0%
8.9%
-0.2%
1.8%
3.4%
-0.5%
2008
2.8%
0.8%
2.9%
4.7%
3.0%
34.7%
2008
0.7%
6.8%
-0.3%
3.5%
2.0%
1.1%
2009
0.7%
4.7%
-1.0%
2.8%
2.0%
-7.6%
2009
-1.8%
11.3%
-0.4%
-0.9%
1.3%
-2.4%
2010
6.5%
3.1%
1.0%
3.0%
2.5%
-3.3%
2010
10.8%
9.2%
-0.1%
1.0%
1.6%
-8.4%
2011
3.7%
1.8%
1.0%
4.0%
3.3%
2.3%
2011
4.2%
9.1%
-0.1%
1.4%
1.9%
3.3%
2012
2.3%
4.6%
1.0%
2.2%
2.8%
-7.6%
2012
1.5%
10.6%
0.0%
1.9%
1.9%
-4.1%
2013
3.0%
6.2%
-0.4%
1.3%
2.5%
-1.3%
2013
2.2%
11.2%
-0.5%
0.8%
1.9%
2.7%
2014
3.3%
6.3%
-0.6%
1.3%
2.0%
3.9%
2014
3.8%
12.5%
-0.3%
1.2%
1.9%
6.2%
2015
2.6%
7.9%
0.0%
1.3%
1.5%
7.7%
2015
0.8%
14.6%
-0.2%
-0.3%
1.6%
3.8%
2016
2.8%
7.0%
0.5%
1.3%
1.3%
2.6%
2016
1.5%
13.5%
-0.3%
1.4%
1.4%
-1.6%
2017
3.1%
5.6%
0.8%
1.5%
1.5% -11.5%
2017
2.9%
14.3%
-0.1%
0.6%
1.4%
-8.0%
2018
2.8%
4.3%
1.0%
1.6%
1.7%
2018
2.7%
13.0%
-0.8%
1.5%
1.5%
3.6%
2019
2.7%
4.1%
0.6%
1.9%
2.0%
2019
2.3%
12.7%
-0.9%
1.3%
1.6%
2020
2.5%
3.8%
0.4%
1.9%
2.1%
2020
2.1%
11.9%
-0.9%
1.3%
1.4%
5.2%
15
INDIA / SINGAPUR CTA CTE CTA FISC INFLAC INTERES var.T.C
SINGAPUR
PIB
CTA CTE CTA FISC INFLAC INTERES var.T.C
INDIA
PIB
2000
3.9%
-0.6%
-6.2%
5.5%
7.0%
6.9%
2000
9.6%
14.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.8%
0.0%
2001
5.1%
0.8%
-6.8%
1.6%
6.0%
4.7%
2001
-2.0%
18.8%
-0.9%
-0.6%
1.3%
11.8%
2002
4.1%
1.4%
-6.4%
6.5%
5.0%
-2.7%
2002
3.2%
21.3%
0.1%
0.4%
0.8% -10.5%
2003
8.6%
1.9%
-4.9%
4.6%
4.5%
-5.3%
2003
1.4%
29.2%
-1.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.0%
2004
7.3%
0.1%
-4.5%
4.0%
4.8%
-2.9%
2004
9.3%
16.6%
-1.1%
1.5%
1.5%
-5.9%
2005
9.2%
-1.4%
-4.6%
4.0%
5.3%
3.1%
2005
7.3%
17.8%
-0.3%
0.5%
3.3%
3.7%
2006
9.6%
-1.2%
-3.7%
6.3%
6.0%
-1.7%
2006
8.7%
24.2%
0.5%
1.0%
3.4%
-7.2%
2007
9.7%
-1.0%
-2.9%
6.4%
7.8% -11.0%
2007
9.1%
25.8%
3.0%
2.1%
2.4%
-6.5%
2008
8.2%
-2.6%
-5.2%
8.3%
6.5%
23.8%
2008
1.9%
13.9%
1.5%
6.6%
1.0%
-0.7%
2009
6.6%
-1.7%
-7.3%
10.8%
4.8%
-4.7%
2009
-0.6%
16.2%
-1.1%
0.6%
0.7%
-2.1%
2010
9.4%
-3.6%
-4.0%
12.1%
6.3%
-3.9%
2010
15.4%
23.5%
0.2%
2.8%
0.4%
-8.6%
2011
7.7%
-3.8%
-7.1%
8.9%
8.5%
18.7%
2011
5.3%
23.8%
1.2%
5.2%
0.4%
1.6%
2012
4.8%
-5.4%
-5.9%
9.3%
8.0%
3.6%
2012
2.5%
17.2%
2.0%
4.6%
0.4%
-6.2%
2013
4.7%
-2.6%
-5.5%
10.9%
7.8%
12.4%
2013
4.4%
18.1%
1.3%
2.4%
0.4%
3.3%
2014
6.9%
-1.4%
-4.3%
6.4%
8.0%
2.0%
2014
3.3%
19.2%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
5.6%
2015
7.2%
-1.2%
-3.5%
5.9%
6.8%
4.9%
2015
2.0%
19.7%
0.6%
-0.5%
1.2%
6.8%
2016
8.0%
-1.0%
-3.7%
5.0%
6.3%
2.7%
2016
2.0%
19.0%
-1.2%
-0.5%
1.0%
2.1%
2017
7.1%
-1.5%
-3.5%
3.3%
6.0%
-6.0%
2017
3.6%
18.8%
0.7%
0.6%
1.5%
-7.6%
2018
7.5%
-1.8%
-3.5%
3.5%
6.8%
14.3%
2018
3.2%
19.0%
-0.3%
0.6%
1.8%
3.0%
2019
7.4%
-2.7%
-3.3%
4.6%
6.8%
2019
2.7%
19.0%
-0.5%
1.5%
2.2%
2020
7.5%
-2.5%
-3.1%
4.8%
6.9%
2020
2.5%
16.2%
0.4%
1.7%
2.4% 16
FILIPINAS / TAILANDIA FILIPINAS
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC INFLAC INTERES
TAILANDIA
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC INFLAC INTERES
2006
5.2%
4.3%
-1.0%
5.5%
7.5%
2006
5.1%
1.1%
0.7%
4.7%
4.9%
2007
6.6%
5.3%
-0.2%
3.0%
5.3%
2007
5.0%
6.3%
-2.4%
2.2%
3.2%
2008
4.2%
0.1%
-0.9%
8.2%
5.5%
2008
2.5%
0.7%
-1.7%
5.5%
3.3%
2009
1.1%
5.0%
-3.7%
4.3%
4.0%
2009
-2.3%
8.4%
-5.1%
-0.8%
2010
7.6%
3.6%
-3.5%
3.8%
4.0%
2010
7.8%
3.1%
-1.9%
3.3%
2.0%
2011
3.6%
2.5%
-2.0%
4.7%
4.5%
2011
0.1%
2.6%
-1.6%
3.8%
3.5%
2012
6.8%
2.7%
-2.3%
3.2%
3.5%
2012
6.5%
-0.4%
-4.6%
3.0%
2.7%
2013
7.2%
4.2%
-1.4%
2.9%
3.5%
2013
2.9%
-0.8%
-2.6%
2.2%
2.2%
2014
6.2%
3.8%
-0.6%
4.2%
4.0%
2014
0.8%
3.8%
-2.9%
1.9%
2.0%
2015
6.3%
2.5%
-0.9%
1.4%
4.0%
2015
2.8%
8.1%
-3.0%
-0.9%
1.5%
2016
6.8%
0.2%
-3.4%
1.8%
3.0%
2016
3.3%
11.3%
-2.6%
0.2%
1.5%
2017
6.7%
-0.8%
-2.2%
2.9%
3.0%
2017
3.9%
10.5%
-2.8%
0.7%
1.5%
2018
6.5%
-1.5%
-2.8%
5.0%
4.8%
2018
4.4%
9.0%
-2.8%
1.2%
1.6%
2019
6.5%
-1.5%
-2.9%
4.0%
4.9%
2019
3.9%
7.7%
-2.5%
1.5%
1.9%
2020
6.5%
-1.3%
-3.0%
3.6%
4.4%
2020
3.8%
7.0%
-3.0%
1.5%
2.2%
---
17
INDONESIA / MALASIA INDONESIA
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC INFLAC INTERES
MALASIA
PIB
CTA CTE CTA FISC INFLAC INTERES var.T.C
2000
8.6%
9.4%
-5.7%
1.3%
5.5%
0.0%
2001
0.3%
8.3%
-5.5%
1.2%
5.0%
0.0%
8.0%
2002
4.4%
8.4%
-5.6%
1.7%
5.0%
0.0%
10.3%
9.3%
2003
5.4%
12.9%
-5.3%
1.0%
4.5%
0.0%
2004
6.8%
12.1%
-4.3%
1.5%
2.7%
0.0%
-0.9%
4.9%
6.5%
2005
5.3%
15.0%
-3.6%
3.1%
3.0%
-0.5%
0.7%
-2.1%
5.1%
6.5%
2006
5.8%
16.7%
-3.3%
3.6%
3.5%
-6.6%
6.5%
0.2%
-2.0%
5.4%
6.0%
2007
6.3%
15.4%
-3.2%
2.0%
3.5%
-6.2%
2008
4.8%
17.1%
-4.8%
5.4%
3.3%
4.8%
2012
6.0%
-2.7%
-1.5%
4.0%
5.8%
2009
-1.5%
15.5%
-6.7%
0.7%
2.0%
-1.2%
2013
5.6%
-3.3%
-2.5%
6.4%
7.5%
2010
7.4%
10.9%
-5.4%
1.7%
2.7% -10.8%
2014
5.0%
-3.1%
-2.1%
6.4%
7.8%
2011
5.2%
11.6%
-4.8%
3.2%
3.0%
3.6%
2012
5.6%
5.8%
-4.5%
1.7%
3.0%
-3.5%
2015
4.8%
-2.1%
-1.9%
6.4%
7.5%
2013
4.7%
3.9%
-4.0%
2.1%
3.0%
7.2%
2016
5.0%
-1.8%
-2.7%
3.5%
4.8%
2014
6.0%
4.4%
-3.5%
3.2%
3.2%
6.7%
2015
5.0%
3.0%
-3.2%
2.1%
3.1%
22.6%
2017
5.1%
-1.7%
-2.5%
3.8%
4.3%
2016
4.2%
2.0%
-3.1%
2.1%
3.0%
4.7%
2018
5.2%
-2.4%
-2.3%
3.5%
6.1%
2017
5.9%
3.1%
-3.0%
3.9%
2.9%
-9.8%
2019
5.3%
-2.3%
-2.2%
3.8%
6.5%
2018
5.1%
3.0%
-3.2%
1.3%
3.3%
2019
5.0%
3.0%
-3.0%
2.0%
3.4%
2020
5.3%
-2.2%
-2.2%
3.9%
6.2%
2020
4.9%
3.2%
-2.8%
2.2%
3.7%
2006
5.5%
3.0%
-1.2%
13.3%
9.8%
2007
6.3%
2.4%
-1.5%
6.4%
2008
6.0%
0.0%
-1.2%
2009
4.6%
1.9%
2010
6.2%
2011
18
FXI – Mensual L/P
19
FXI – Semanal 4y
20
EUROPA y JAPÓN
21
EUROPA
2
Nombre
Precio Actual
MSCI AC EUROPE
422
CTA CTE
CTA FISC
P/B P / B Prom P / U 15A Prom 15A Actual 1,61
INFLAC
1,80
INTERES
19,46
RENT.%
UPA 2018
UPA 2019
UPA 2020
P/Ue 2018
P/Ue 2019
P/Ue 2020
32,7
35,8
38,5
12,9
11,8
11,0
EURO
PIB
2000
3.1%
-0.7%
0.0%
2.5%
4.8%
---
6.7%
2001
1.1%
0.1%
-1.8%
2.1%
3.3%
---
6.0%
2002
1.2%
0.6%
-2.5%
2.3%
2.8%
-21.0%
-15.2%
2003
0.7%
0.3%
-2.8%
2.1%
2.0%
36.0%
-10.7%
2004
1.8%
0.6%
-2.7%
2.1%
2.0%
17.0%
-0.7%
2005
1.7%
-0.2%
-2.5%
2.2%
2.3%
7.0%
14.5%
2006
2.9%
-0.1%
-2.2%
2.2%
3.1%
33.0%
11.9%
2007
2.9%
0.1%
-0.7%
2.1%
4.0%
12.0%
10.6%
2008
0.4%
-1.6%
-2.1%
3.3%
2.5%
-46.0%
-4.1%
2009
-4.4%
-0.2%
-6.4%
0.3%
1.0%
25.0%
2.1%
2010
2.0%
0.0%
-6.2%
1.6%
1.0%
0.8%
-6.3%
2011
1.6%
0.1%
-4.1%
2.7%
1.0%
-14.1%
-3.0%
2012
-0.7%
1.4%
-3.7%
2.5%
0.8%
20.5%
1.5%
2013
-0.4%
2.2%
-2.9%
1.3%
0.3%
24.1%
3.8%
2014
0.9%
2.1%
-2.4%
0.4%
0.1%
-7.3%
-11.7%
2015
2.0%
3.0%
-2.2%
0.0%
0.1%
-3.3%
-9.9%
2016
1.8%
3.3%
-1.5%
0.2%
0.0%
-0.2%
-3.7%
2017
2.4%
3.2%
-1.2%
1.5%
0.0%
24.9%
14.3%
2018
2.0%
3.3%
-0.8%
1.8%
0.0%
-11.1%
-3.3%
2019
1.8%
3.2%
-0.9%
1.7%
0.2%
2020
1.6%
3.0%
-0.8%
1.7%
0.6%
Var Util Var Util Var Util 2018 2019 2020 7%
9%
7%
var.T.C
22
JAPÓN
JAPÓN
Nombre
Precio Actual
MSCI JAPAN
984
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC
P/B P / B Prom P / U 15A Prom 15A Actual 1,28
INFLAC
1,45
INTERES
31,46
RENT.%
UPA 2018
UPA 2019
UPA 2020
P/Ue 2018
P/Ue 2019
P/Ue 2020
79,7
83,0
87,0
12,4
11,8
11,3
Var Util Var Util Var Util 2018 2019 2020 12%
4%
5%
var.T.C
2000
2.4%
2.5%
-7.5%
-0.2%
0.3%
---
11.6%
2001
0.2%
2.1%
-6.1%
-1.2%
0.2%
---
15.1%
2002
-0.3%
2.8%
-7.9%
-0.3%
0.2%
-10.0%
-9.8%
2003
1.4%
3.2%
-8.2%
-0.3%
0.0%
38.0%
-5.8%
2004
2.6%
3.7%
-6.2%
0.0%
0.0%
13.0%
1.0%
2005
1.3%
3.6%
-6.7%
-0.3%
0.3%
24.0%
14.8%
2006
1.7%
3.9%
-1.6%
0.2%
0.5%
6.0%
1.1%
2007
2.2%
4.9%
-2.1%
0.1%
0.5%
-6.0%
-6.1%
2008
-1.0%
3.0%
-1.9%
1.4%
0.1%
-28.0%
-18.9%
2009
-5.5%
2.9%
-8.8%
-1.3%
0.1%
2.0%
2.6%
2010
4.7%
4.0%
-8.3%
-0.7%
0.1%
12.0%
-12.8%
2011
-0.5%
2.2%
-8.8%
-0.3%
0.1%
-16.5%
-5.2%
2012
1.5%
1.0%
-8.7%
0.0%
0.1%
9.2%
12.8%
2013
1.6%
0.7%
-7.8%
0.4%
0.1%
26.0%
21.4%
2014
-0.1%
0.5%
-7.1%
2.7%
0.1%
-6.2%
13.7%
2015
0.5%
3.3%
-6.7%
0.8%
0.0%
9.2%
0.4%
2016
1.0%
3.8%
-5.7%
-0.1%
-0.1%
2.8%
-2.7%
2017
1.7%
4.0%
-5.0%
0.5%
-0.1%
24.3%
-3.7%
2018
1.1%
3.8%
-4.0%
0.9%
-0.1%
-6.06%
-0.6%
2019
1.1%
3.7%
-3.8%
1.1%
0.0%
2020
0.6%
3.8%
-3.2%
1.5%
0.0% 23
LATINOAMÉRICA
24
BRASIL BRASIL
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC
INFLAC
INTERES
RENT.%
var.T.C
2000
4.4%
-4.0%
-4.5%
6.0%
15.8%
---
9.5%
2001
1.4%
-4.6%
-5.2%
7.7%
19.0%
---
18.4%
2002
1.9%
-1.7%
-10.3%
12.5%
25.0%
-38.0%
52.2%
2003
0.5%
0.8%
-3.6%
9.3%
16.5%
110.0%
-18.1%
2004
5.7%
1.9%
-2.5%
7.6%
18.0%
31.0%
-8.3%
2005
3.2%
1.7%
-3.1%
6.9%
13.5%
50.0%
-11.7%
2006
4.0%
1.4%
-3.2%
4.2%
13.0%
43.0%
-8.5%
2007
6.1%
0.1%
-2.6%
3.6%
11.3%
75.0%
-16.8%
2008
5.2%
-1.7%
-2.1%
5.7%
13.8%
-57.0%
29.8%
2009
-0.3%
-1.4%
-3.3%
4.9%
8.8%
113.0%
-24.7%
2010
7.6%
-2.2%
-2.9%
5.0%
10.8%
3.7%
-4.6%
2011
2.8%
-2.1%
-2.3%
6.6%
11.0%
-25.9%
12.7%
2012
1.0%
-2.4%
-2.6%
5.4%
7.3%
0.4%
9.6%
2013
2.5%
-3.6%
-3.0%
6.2%
10.0%
-17.5%
15.1%
2014
0.1%
-4.4%
-3.8%
6.3%
11.8%
-15.5%
12.7%
2015
-3.8%
-3.2%
-8.2%
9.0%
14.3%
-41.7%
48.9%
2016
-3.5%
-1.3%
-9.7%
8.8%
13.8%
64.5%
-17.7%
2017
1.0%
-0.5%
-8.9%
3.5%
7.0%
23.7%
1.5%
2018
1.4%
-0.9%
-7.2%
3.7%
6.7%
-1.7%
18.1%
2019
2.4%
-1.5%
-6.5%
4.3%
8.2%
2020
2.5%
-1.7%
-6.3%
4.1%
8.0%
25
LATINOAMÉRICA MÉXICO
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC
INFLAC
INTERES
var.T.C
2000
6.6%
-3.2%
-3.4%
9.0%
17.6%
2.1%
2001
-0.2%
-2.8%
-3.2%
4.4%
7.4%
-5.2%
2002
0.8%
-2.1%
-2.7%
5.7%
7.0%
13.2%
2003
1.4%
-1.3%
-2.6%
4.0%
6.0%
8.7%
2004
4.4%
-1.1%
-0.2%
5.2%
8.6%
-0.4%
2005
3.0%
-0.7%
-0.1%
4.0%
8.3%
-4.7%
2006
4.8%
-0.5%
0.1%
3.6%
7.0%
1.6%
2007
3.1%
-1.4%
0.0%
4.0%
7.6%
0.9%
2008
1.4%
-1.9%
-0.1%
5.1%
8.3%
25.4%
2009
-4.7%
-0.9%
-2.3%
5.3%
4.7%
-4.2%
2010
5.1%
-0.3%
-2.8%
4.2%
4.6%
-5.7%
2011
4.0%
-1.1%
-2.4%
3.4%
4.5%
13.0%
2012
3.9%
-1.2%
-2.6%
4.1%
4.5%
-7.8%
2013
1.1%
-2.1%
-2.3%
3.8%
3.6%
1.5%
2014
2.1%
-1.9%
-3.2%
4.0%
3.1%
13.1%
2015
2.5%
-2.0%
-3.5%
2.7%
3.4%
16.7%
2016
2.3%
-2.1%
-2.6%
2.8%
5.8%
20.5%
2017
2.0%
-1.7%
-1.1%
6.0%
7.4%
-5.2%
2018
2.1%
-1.7%
-2.3%
4.8%
7.8%
-3.4%
2019
2.1%
-1.9%
-2.5%
4.0%
6.9%
-1.6%
2020
2.4%
-2.0%
-2.8%
3.6%
7.0%
COLOMBIA
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC
INFLAC
INTERES
ARGENTINA
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC
INFLAC
INTERES
2010
10.1%
-0.4%
0.4%
25.8%
11.2%
2011
6.0%
-1.0%
0.1%
23.9%
10.1%
2012
-1.0%
-0.4%
0.0%
23.7%
10.5%
2013
2.4%
-2.3%
-0.2%
25.7%
14.5%
2014
-2.5%
-1.5%
-0.2%
42.7%
29.5%
2015
2.7%
-3.0%
-0.4%
26.7%
2016
-2.3%
-2.7%
-1.1%
39.0%
2017
2.9%
-4.4%
-6.2%
25.3%
28.7%
2018
-1.0%
-4.3%
-5.2%
30.5%
42.3%
2019
1.5%
-3.0%
-3.7%
25.6%
26.9%
2020
3.0%
-2.6%
-3.3%
18.1%
17.8%
PERÚ
PIB
CTA CTE
CTA FISC
INFLAC
INTERES
2007
6.9%
-2.9%
-2.8%
5.5%
8.8%
2007
8.9%
1.5%
---
1.8%
5.0%
2008
3.5%
-2.7%
-1.7%
7.0%
9.5%
2008
9.3%
-4.4%
---
5.8%
6.5%
2009
1.7%
-2.0%
-3.8%
4.2%
3.5%
2009
1.1%
-0.5%
---
3.0%
1.3%
2010
4.0%
-3.0%
-3.5%
2.3%
3.0%
2010
8.4%
-2.4%
---
1.5%
3.0%
2011
6.6%
-2.9%
-2.0%
3.4%
4.8%
2011
6.5%
-1.9%
---
3.4%
4.3%
2012
4.0%
-3.0%
-1.9%
3.2%
4.3%
2012
5.9%
-3.2%
---
3.7%
4.3%
2013
4.9%
-3.4%
-2.2%
2.0%
3.3%
2013
5.6%
-4.6%
0.5%
2.8%
4.0%
2014
4.4%
-5.3%
-2.6%
2.9%
4.5%
2014
2.5%
-4.0%
0.2%
3.3%
3.5%
2015
3.1%
-6.7%
-3.1%
5.0%
5.8%
2015
3.2%
-4.8%
-2.3%
3.5%
3.8%
2016
2.0%
-4.2%
-3.8%
7.5%
7.5%
2016
3.9%
-2.7%
-2.7%
3.6%
4.3%
2017
1.8%
-3.3%
-3.3%
4.3%
4.8%
2017
2.5%
-1.3%
-3.1%
2.8%
3.3%
2018
2.6%
-3.0%
-3.1%
3.3%
4.3%
2018
4.0%
-1.6%
-3.0%
1.4%
2.9%
2019
3.2%
-3.0%
-2.6%
3.4%
4.9%
2019
3.9%
-1.8%
-2.8%
2.5%
3.5%
2020
3.3%
-2.9%
-2.4%
3.2%
4.7%
2020
3.8%
-1.6%
-2.4%
2.5%
4.0%
26
EWZ – Mensual L/P
27
EWZ – Semanal 4y
28
CHILE
29
CHILE CHILE
PIB
CTA CTE
2000
8.9%
2001
3.5%
-1.7%
2002
2.1%
2003
CTA FISC
INFLAC
INTERES
RENT.%
T.C.
var.T.C
1.1%
8.0%
---
---
3.6%
6.5%
---
-1.0%
---
2.5%
3.0%
-16.0%
720.3
3.8%
-1.0%
---
2.8%
2.3%
49.0%
592.8
-17.7%
2004
5.9%
2.2%
---
1.1%
2.3%
21.0%
555.8
-6.2%
2005
5.6%
1.2%
---
3.1%
4.5%
9.0%
512.0
-7.9%
2006
4.5%
4.9%
---
3.4%
5.3%
37.0%
532.3
4.0%
2007
5.2%
4.2%
---
4.4%
6.0%
13.0%
497.8
-6.5%
2008
3.4%
-3.8%
---
8.7%
8.3%
-22.0%
638.5
28.3%
2009
-1.1%
2.0%
---
1.6%
0.5%
51.0%
507.5
-20.5%
2010
5.7%
1.5%
---
1.4%
3.3%
37.6%
468.0
-7.8%
2011
5.9%
-1.4%
---
3.2%
5.3%
-15.4%
519.6
11.0%
2012
5.4%
-3.4%
---
2.9%
5.0%
3.0%
479.2
-7.8%
2013
4.1%
-3.5%
---
1.8%
4.5%
-14.0%
525.5
9.7%
2014
1.9%
-1.2%
-2.0%
4.4%
3.0%
4.1%
606.5
15.4%
2015
2.3%
-2.1%
-3.2%
4.3%
3.5%
-4.4%
708.6
16.8%
2016
1.6%
-1.4%
-3.0%
3.8%
3.5%
12.8%
670.4
-5.4%
2017
1.5%
-1.5%
-2.9%
2.2%
2.5%
34.0%
615.4
-8.2%
2018
4.0%
-1.6%
-2.3%
2.5%
2.8%
-7.94%
672.5
9.3%
2019
3.5%
-2.0%
-2.2%
3.0%
3.7%
652.5
-3.0%
2020
3.0%
-1.9%
-2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
647.5
-0.8% 30
RENTA FIJA
▪ SOBREPONDERAR PORTFOLIOS EN UF ▪ BUSCAR PORTFOLIOS CON DURATION ENTRE 1 Y 3 AÑOS
31
VISIÓN COBRE
3
32
TIPO DE CAMBIO GLOBAL / REAL
33
USD/PESO – Mensual L/P
34
USD/PESO – Semanal 4y
35
USD/PESO – Diario 6m
36
BOLSA CHILENA
37
ECH – Mensual L/P
38
ECH – Semanal 4y
39
IPSA
40
SELECCIÓN DE EMPRESAS CHILENAS CMPC COPEC BANCO CHILE ITAÚ CORPBANCA
40% 20% 20% 20%
41
CMPC
42
COPEC
43
ITAUCORP
44
Este informe ha sido preparado para otorgar información a clientes. No corresponde a una solicitud de comprar o vender ninguna de las acciones. Esta información y aquella en la que está basada, ha sido obtenida de bases de información pública, de fuentes que hasta donde podemos estimar, nos parecen confiables, sin embargo, ésta no garantiza que sea exacta ni completa. Por tanto, dada la posibilidad de error humano o mecánico, no se garantiza la exactitud o integridad de la información y resultados contenidos en este informe, por lo cual, no nos hacemos responsables de errores u omisiones. Adicionalmente, dada la posibilidad de cambios económicos o de administración interna de las empresas que pudieran afectar su evolución, no se asume responsabilidad alguna por las consecuencias asociadas al empleo de esta información.
45