Going into level 4

At the time of writing this article South Africa has been under lockdown for 33 days since the mandatory lockdown commencing from midnight on 23 March 2020 was imposed in terms of an executive order.

By Peter Bagshawe

During the initial period of lockdown, only laboratories, pharmacies, banks, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, supermarkets, food suppliers, petrol stations and heath care facilities were permitted to trade, while residents were and still are only permitted to leave their homes to collect medicines from pharmacies, seek medical care, buy food or collect social grants.

During the lockdown period, the sale of alcohol and cigarettes were prohibited, and the prohibition on the sale and transport of alcohol is still being strictly enforced. The enforcement of lockdown provisions has been the joint responsibility of the South African Police Services together with 2 800 members of the South African Defence Force deployed nationally. On 23 April 2020, the deployment of up to an additional 73,180 members of the South African Defence Force was authorised.

On 23 April, President Ramaphosa announced that South Africa would move to a 5 Level Alert grading system, with the restrictions referred to above encompassing the Level 5 restrictions.

This risk-adjusted strategy is geared off scientific matrices designed to avoid an increase in infection levels following a sudden end to restrictions. Before looking at implications of the move to Level 4 it is probably as well to review the Covid-19 position internationally as a measure of the success to date of lockdown in South Africa.

As a note, the mortality rates below are given at 2 decimal points, which will reflect minor differences due to rounding factors. Globally there have been 3 543 904 recorded Covid-19 infections which have led to 247 117 deaths, which is a mortality rate of 6.97 per cent. Of the 3 543 904 infected, 1 148 227 (or 32.4 per cent) have recovered and been discharged from treatment.

Previous reference has been made to countries with high infection rates and these will be detailed. Italy (which is currently reducing restrictions) recorded 210 717 infections with 28 884 deaths (a 13.7 per cent mortality rate) with Spain (also coming out of lockdown currently) recorded 247 112 infections, with 25 264 deaths (a 10.22 per cent mortality rate).

The United Kingdom (which still has restrictions in place) has seen a marked upswing in deaths, with 186 559 recorded infections and 28 446 deaths (a 15.24 per cent mortality rate) and are second to Italy from a continental European perspective.

The United States of America (where restrictions in place are on a state-bystate basis, and are similarly being lifted on a state-by-state basis) has the highest number of infections recorded of any country at 1 174 202 confirmed infections and 68 088 deaths, giving a 5.79 per cent mortality rate. The American epicentre is New York with 312 997 cases recorded (including 168 845 in New York City) and 18 909 recorded deaths giving a 6.04 per cent mortality rate.

South Africa currently has 6 336 recorded infections, with 123 deaths giving a mortality rate of 1.94 per cent. This is substantially lower than the respective rates for any of the countries referred to above, and has largely been attributed to the clear and early action taken by the South African government. Director General of the World Health Organisation, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has referred to this directly and favourably.

Going into Level 4 with effect on 1 May 2020, the ongoing restriction on the sale of alcohol and cigarettes (after a flip-flop by government) will remain. Exercise between 06h00 and 09h00 will be permitted on an individual basis, and a curfew between 20h00 and 05h00 will be imposed.

The wearing of facemasks in public will be mandatory, the preparation and third party delivery of food will be permitted, and essential goods, hardware supplies, winter clothing and heating supplies will now be available.

Businesses are encouraged to adopt a work from home strategy where possible, all staff who can work remotely should be allowed to do so and those over 60 should work from home and maintain social distancing.

The initial average age of death was 68 on 8 April 2020. This is currently 64, with Minister of Health Zweli Mkhize actively calling for those older than 60 to maintain rigorous social distancing.

Additionally, those with comorbidities which are regarded (from what I have been able to establish) as including hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes, hepatitis B infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney diseases, malignancy and immunodeficiency, chemo therapy, HIV and tuberculosis should adhere to lockdown and social distancing recommendations.

Turning to the impact of the initial lockdown South African economic sectors that have been particularly badly affected include manufacturing, transport (taxi, rail, road and air), hospitality and accommodation, restaurants, exercise and recreation, religious and related activities, entertainment industries, tourism, the informal sector, retailers and wholesalers.

Locally and internationally air lines are under substantial pressure, South African Airways (already under business administration) has not received a further government bailout, Passenger Rail Agency South Africa and the Gautrain have not operated since lockdown started, the taxi industry has operated under restriction on routes and passenger capacity and the majority of nonessential goods have not been transported. The listing of industries that will be permitted to return to operation is fairly wide (and too wide to detail here) however the strictures that apply across the board include the requirement for employers to clean premises prior to staff returning, provide a safe working environment, the provision of Personal Protective Equipment and monitoring the health of staff on site.

Level 4 allows business to commence with a 30 per cent return to work scaling up to 50 per cent. Losses to the South African fiscus and individual industries have been cumulative and severe with the identified risk of business closure and large-scale job losses combined with forecasts of real and long lasting recession not boding well.

The impact on South Africa is not unique. The global shipping sector is similarly under pressure, oil prices and oil futures are at all-time lows, bulk oil storage facilities have become strained, manufacturing capacity internationally is constrained and the United States has recorded in excess of 26 million unemployment claims since the Covid-19 infections started to impact. Globally, recession and job losses are certain, and even a gradual return to normal appear to be some way off.

Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga has announced plans to reopen schools with Grades 7 and 12 slated to start the new term on 1 July 2020 with Minister of Higher Education Blade Nzimande announcing that campus-based academic activity would not commence due to perceived risks. This differentiation and difficulties in maintaining social distancing and cleaning regimes at all schools has led to criticism and threats of court action as well as resistance from unions active in the educational sector. This potential exposure of schoolchildren as well as their families is obviously emotive and has led to wide debate. There has been, generally, a high level of compliance by the majority of South African. Despite the deployment of the South African Police Service and South African National Defence Force, the ongoing success of lockdown depends to an extent on maintaining the ongoing goodwill of residents. Comments and application of Emergency measures by some authorities have led to dissatisfaction in political and civil circles; this may well need monitoring going forward. In the interim South Africa will have to continue navigating an unknown and difficult path.

PETER BAGSHAWE holds a Bachelor of Law degree from the former University of Rhodesia and a Bachelor of Laws degree from the University of the Witwatersrand.