6 minute read
THE LAST WORD
The aftermath of looting in a Durban shopping mall. Photograph: Shutterstock.com.
Insurrection cannot be tolerated
The civil unrest or insurrection that took place between 9th and 19th July 2021 has been extensively documented in the audio-visual and print media. No purpose would be served in attempting to extensively review individual incidents other than to highlight the incidence.
By Peter Bagshawe
My intention is look at the impact on Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng directly, the ripple effect on their economies as well as on the national economy. From my perspective, a discussion on cause and effect, relating to the unrest is probably of more value and a portion of this will obviously involve reference to the perceived political causations.
President Cyril Ramaphosa initially referenced an ‘orchestrated campaign of public violence, destruction and sabotage’ and subsequently stated the ‘violence may indeed have its roots in the pronouncements and activities of individuals with a political purpose and in expressions of frustration and anger’ but latterly referred to events as insurrection. The Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni described the violence as economic sabotage. In a clear lack of cohesion at cabinet level then-Minister of Defence, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, stated that the military saw no signs of an insurrection or attempted coup (in direct contradiction of the State President) but rather a counter-revolution in the form of ‘criminality and thuggery.’ Her statement was later retracted. Within the Security Cluster, there was further lack of cohesion with Minister of Police Bheki Cele and State Security Minister Ayanda Dlodlo at odds on whether State Security had provided intelligence reports on the impending violence and looting. Ultimately, in a recent Cabinet reshuffle Dlodlo lost her Cabinet position when State Security was transferred to the Presidency. Mapisa-Nqakula was replaced by former Speaker of Parliament, Thandi Modise, as Minister of Defence while Mapisa-Nqakula was nominated by the African National Congress as the new Speaker of Parliament and duly elected to replace Modise.
Initial calls for and linking of protest action to the imprisonment of former President Jacob Zuma via his support base may have been the initiation of a campaign and this has been linked to activity on social media. Subsequently, charges have been preferred against some individuals identified as instigators of the campaign. However, the rapid spread of violence, looting and arson was broadly criminal in nature and opportunism together with socio-economic circumstances were apparently at the root of this, rather than political motivations.
From my perspective, ‘insurrection’ adequately and correctly describes the events in July given that insurrection is defined as an act, acts or instance of revolting against civil authority or an established government or a violent uprising against an authority or government. The initial response to violence by the South African Police Services has been criticised as less than sufficient and, as the insurrection escalated, manpower, supplies, boots on the ground and logistics compounded the inability to control mass outbreaks of violence. Deployment of the South African Defence Force was necessary and the deployment was completed in two phases that contributed directly to the quelling of looting.
Turning to the impact of events, the high profile closure of the N3 and N2 road routes between Durban, the Free State and Gauteng effectively halted the provision of trucking services and the flow of goods. The Mooi Plaza closure and burning of trucks resulted in shortages that were exacerbated by disruptions within supply chains that impacted on the availability of food, fuel and medicines, particularly in Kwa-Zulu Natal. Simultaneously, the declaration of force majeure on the Transnet rail line between Johannesburg and Durban and the closure of Durban and Richards Bay port facilities, following looting at Durban’s port facility, compounded supply line issues. Notably, the looting at the docks included the theft of almost 1,5 million rounds of ammunition which has been linked to attacks on police. This ammunition will find its way into illegal sectors, exacerbating the problem of armed crime. In addition, some R120 million in bank notes was stolen from ATMs and bank branches, which, if not dye stained, will reenter the economy illegally. The closure of the trucking route into Gauteng also impacted on the delivery of goods to neighbouring, landlocked countries. This is likely to have repercussions on South Africa’s ‘Gateway to Africa’ status and may well lead to alternative routes being sourced by the neighbouring states which were impacted on. The burning of trucks at Mooi Rivier has an ongoing effect on the trucking industry with smaller truckers being worst affected and in some cases losing their livelihood. As an aside, the closing of transport routes between the coast and interior was likely a planned process aimed at causing the highest economic impact and unlikely a spontaneous act on the part of those responsible.
The South African Property Owners Association estimates property damage to malls and buildings subsequent to active looting and arson attacks and the wider impact on the South African economy at approximately R50 billion. Directly related job losses are estimated to be in the order of 150,000 jobs with some 40,000 businesses and 50,000 traders affected and stock losses estimated at R1,5 billion. A further issue is the impact on communities where malls and shopping complexes were destroyed. Developers will have to look at the merits of rebuilding the infrastructure; rebuilds and sourcing of tenants will take in the order of three to five years if the project is undertaken. In the interim, the community will have to travel further afield to shop which comes at an extra cost to those whom, in the main, can least afford it. Wide of this is the impact of informal traders, transport providers and the loss to municipalities in respect of electricity, water, rates and taxes.
As a counterpoint, the community-based actions which took place across diverse locations to protect infrastructure. Varied interest groups with disparate driving forces including private security companies, taxi drivers and taxi associations, neighbourhood watch groups, civilians armed in various manners and what authorities have referred to as vigilante groups took on aspects of law enforcement duties. This was in reaction to the absence of adequate response from the State and done to protect their businesses and wider communities from rioting and looting. Although these actions were sometimes of a violent nature and some are under investigation by the authorities, the benefit of the group actions include a respect for the Rule of Law being demonstrated. The Rule of Law has been mentioned frequently in recent articles and the criminal acts involved in the insurrection clearly show a total disregard for the law and the State’s enforcement mechanisms. This disregard will continue unless clear, decisive action takes place with the investigation of criminals and their prosecution being an imperative. The alternative is that looting will be seen as either condoned or overlooked by the State. The likely result here will be repeated incidents with likely escalation and spillover into areas previously unaffected (or adequately protected) leading to greater degrees of criminality and violence. A further concern is that younger generations, who witnessed the looting, may come to regard this as a norm, leading to a further erosion of stability and economic growth.
Socio-economic circumstances undoubtedly played a major role in the looting but necessity became subsumed by greed in many instances. The looting of warehouses containing luxury and electronic goods and the destruction of factories are evidence of this as is the sale of looted property on the informal market. The aggressive enforcement of the Rule of Law and a national respect for it is an imperative the government may no longer afford to ignore. Additionally, the adequate resourcing of the legal, police, prosecuting and security services must be addressed and the functioning of these complementary portfolios requires effective governance.
PETER BAGSHAWE holds a Bachelor of Law degree from the former University of Rhodesia and a Bachelor of Laws degree from the University of the Witwatersrand.
