THE LAST WORD

Expert Panel Report on July 2021 Unrest

By Peter Bagshawe

Between 9 and 18 July 2021, South Africa was rocked by riots, incidents of arson, civil disobedience, Internet activism and looting in Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng, which President Cyril Ramaphosa referred to as ‘insurrection’. The then-Acting Minister in the Presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, on 20 July, referred to initial estimated losses in the region of R50 billion to the national economy, with 337 deaths and 2,219 dockets opened and being processed by the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA).

Stark information does not show the impact of the loss of life and property, damage to infrastructure, loss of direct jobs and ancillary informal employment, reputational damage internationally, financial losses to traders, impact on insurances and financial markets or the destruction of trust in the ability of the state to provide protection of life and property, as required in terms of the South African Constitution.

In response not only to the situation that arose, but also widespread criticism of the state, President Ramaphosa, on 5 August 2021, appointed an Expert Panel, chaired by Professor Sandy Africa and comprising experts in relevant areas, to investigate the preparedness – or lack of preparedness – of the government relating to the ‘insurrection’. Dr Sandy Africa is an Associate Professor in the

Department of Political Sciences at the University of Pretoria and also holds positions in The African Security Sector Network and the Geneva Democratic Centre for the Control on Armed Forces.

On 7 February 2022, President Ramaphosa authorised the release of the Report of (the?) Expert Panel on (the) July 2021 Unrest, which provides insight into the state of the member sectors of the Security Cluster and demonstrates the level of dysfunction prior to, and during, the riots.

Turning to the causes of the riots, the Panel report referred directly to the weakness of state institutions, endemic poverty, the ongoing unemployment crisis, and the imprisonment of former President Jacob Zuma as primary drivers. Further factors identified include poor rollout of service delivery and unacceptable living conditions, the state of the economy, poor spatial planning, and the emergence of informal settlements in urban spaces, corruption within government, and state capture. All of these have been referred to, and debated previously, but serve to provide the background that led to many poor people participating in looting, led by individuals with more direct political objectives. It is telling that the Expert Panel Report found that internal differences within the African National Congress (ANC) contributed to the unrest. Further to this, the Report also catalogued a series of failures, including the South African Police Service (SAPS) being inadequately prepared, and a lack of intelligence from state security officials, with a final comment being that little has changed in the underlying conditions that led to the riots.

It is well known that there is a divisive relationship between the Minister of Police, Bheki Cele, and now-former National Police Commissioner Khehla Sitole. On 20 September 2021 it was announced that President Ramaphosa had launched an inquiry into Sitole’s alleged misconduct and fitness to hold office and that Sitole had been issued a notice of suspension. Sitole submitted his representations on the notice to suspend to the President on 15 October 2021. It was announced by the Office of the Presidency on the evening of 25 February 2022, that Sitole will, by mutual agreement, vacate his position with effect from 31 March ‘in the best interests of the country’. This, in effect, brings an end to a situation that has widely been regarded as counterproductive to the operation and the morale of the South African Police Service. Despite the cordial tone of the announcement, it is apparent that this was, in all likelihood, an executive decision. Political reaction has been swift, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Freedom Front (FF) calling for the dismissal of Minister Cele. Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the South African Police Union (SAPU) have referred to the termination of Sitole’s contract as being politically motivated. The probity of a former National Police Commissioner holding office as Minister of Police is a further factor that requires debate.

The Panel Report referred to police capacity as being overstretched due to orchestrated and spontaneous, simultaneous incidents of violence and looting, exacerbated by having to operate in areas with no road infrastructure, poor lighting and in an environment where police members were subject to threats and intimidation. The Public Order Policing Unit, in particular, was under-resourced and understaffed, equipment had not been maintained, and only one water cannon vehicle was available per province, Nyala vehicles were not available, logistics were inadequate, rubber bullets and tear gas canisters could not be resupplied, and intelligence would not seem to have been available on the ground. Evidence given by Minister Cele to the South African Human Rights Commission (SAHRC) hearing claimed that the Minister did not receive intelligence reports prior to, or during, the period of the riots, despite these having been received by Sitole and Lieutenant-General Masemola, Deputy National Commissioner for Policing, and senior managers within the Crime Intelligence Division.

The Panel Report contained findings of a significant failure of the Intelligence Service to identify, anticipate, prevent, or disrupt the planned violence. The Report found the Intelligence Service’s interpretation of what was brewing slow and, as a result, it failed to put in place necessary measures to detect and disrupt the unrest. In evidence given to the SAHRC hearing, former State Security Minister, Ayanda Dlodlo, gave evidence contrary to the Report, laying blame firmly on the police service, who, she contended, received fit-for-purpose intelligence prior to, and during, the unrest. Dlodlo was, subsequent to the riots, transferred and is currently Minister of Public Service and Administration.

The stabilisation of the unrest was largely a result of the deployment of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), albeit too late to avoid extensive damage. Then-Minister of Defence and now Speaker of Parliament, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, gave evidence to the Human Rights Commission that, in consultation with the President, and at the request of the Minister of Police, a complement of 2,500 members of the Defence Force was deployed. Initially, troops were used to guard National Key Points (NKP): the deployment was increased to 10,000, and finally 25,000 troops were deployed in unrest areas to stabilise Kwa-Zulu Natal. Her evidence stated that the deployment was not smooth, with little cooperation being received from Kwa-Zulu Natal Provincial Commissioner Lieutenant-General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, and a limited flow of information until intervention from Mapisa-Nqakula and senior Defence Force officers. Again, this points to fractured lines of communication.

The above is, in effect, a litany of defects identified by the Report of Expert(s?) Panel on (the) July 2021 Unrest, which is bolstered by evidence being given at the South African Human Rights Commission hearing. The lack of performance by departments and deflection by the relevant Minister is concerning, as there is a lack of acceptance of accountability which spreads through to party and executive level. A prime example of this is the recently-announced under-spending by the South African Police Service of R4 billion on their budget. Given the deficiencies identified in the Expert Panel Report, and the strictures under which the Police Service operated during the insurrection, this is an area that requires investigation and remediation, from the top down. The termination of Sitole’s contract may be the initial move to correcting or rectifying deficiencies or lack of performance identified in the Report, but the likelihood is that this is more of a political decision. In the interim the causative factors identified by the Expert Panel remain in play, as do the risks of further unrest.

PETER BAGSHAWE holds a Bachelor of Law degree from the former University of Rhodesia and a Bachelor of Laws degree from the University of the Witwatersrand.