Protracted lockdown

At the time that South Africa had been in lockdown for 70 days or 10 weeks it is probably as well to take an overview of where we as a country sit and what has developed (within a restricted ambit of my interaction whilst under lockdown) since lockdown started on 26 March 2020.

By Peter Bagshawe

The initial 21 day lockdown was extended via the introduction of a 5 level lockdown grading with the country moving to level 5 and in a fairly quick progression through level 4 to level 3 which started on 1 June 2020. There has accordingly been a progressive easing of restrictions imposed with specified non-essential businesses being allowed to partially under level 4 and further opening of businesses allowed in level 3.

The most obvious and immediate consequence of lockdown has been the curtailment of employment and the ability to work in the formal and informal sectors. The loss of income has been catered for, to various extents, via Governmental and civic organisations initiatives with State involvement including measures such as the use of the Unemployment Insurance Fund to provide payment of grants.

Various philanthropists and businesses have contributed to establishing funds to cushion the impact on those facing loss of income and economic hardship. Despite this, the impact of the initial lockdown, level 5 and level 4 lockdown have impacted on business across all levels and sectors with jobs being shed, salaries being reduced and in numerous instances businesses forced to close.

Against this initial brief overview Ask Africa, a local market research company, issued an interesting report geared around identifying concerns, trends and perception of politicians. From a political perspective, President Cyril Ramaphosa enjoys the highest approval rating from the sample surveyed with the trend being for the request for more frequent updates and regular information from the President.

The President is immediately followed by the Minister of Health, Zweli Mkhize, from an approval level rating with, in descending levels of approval rating, the other Ministers measured in the report being Trade and Industry Minister Ebrahim Patel, Police Minister Bheki Cele, and Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma. With regard to Minister of Dlamini Zuma there have been public expressions of anger directed at her that are, in numerous instances, phrased unacceptably and are unnecessarily personal. Given that politics and political perceptions are rapidly changeable, it would be interesting to track this on an ongoing basis.

Access to accurate data is low when it comes to employment currently however, the National Treasury has stated that, worst-case scenario, there is the potential for South Africa to lose up to 7 million jobs with the unemployment rate then being close to 50 per cent. The premier of Gauteng, David Makhura stated, during a virtual session of the Gauteng Provincial Legislature that for Gauteng the best-case scenario would be the loss of 890,000 jobs with the worstcase scenario being 2,000,000 jobs. The prohibition on local and international travel, mass transport, large gatherings, sale of alcohol and tobacco related products and the closure of businesses (with many not being able to work remotely) had an impact from the initial lockdown through April and well into May 2020. Financial security is low with many having financial commitments requiring to be reprioritised, deferred or rearranged, many have been forced to take loans from family or friends and there has been an increased reliance on feeding schemes and food parcels. Food security of the lack of food security has become a major concern following reduction in salaries, loss of employment or retrenchment. Informal traders, daily workers and domestic workers (unless live-in or in a care role) during the hard lockdown largely lost their income.

The Ask Africa report track social media and interactions closely and extracted items will be listed only. This is in the interest of brevity and to show what I see as recurring themes across numerous sectors of society. Gender-based violence, domestic violence and increased crime levels form a core that relates to enforced proximity as well as instances of violence by a minority of members of the South African Police and the South African Defence forces. Economic concerns that dovetail with health and access to medical care or lack of sustainable healthcare levels are prevalent. Food and financial insecurity concerns have been mentioned previously. The closure of churches for public worship and the education of school and tertiary level students with the loss of academic terms has been a focus particularly where there are limited opportunities for remote learning. The phased reopening of schools and campuses has become a further concern for parents and students given the rising level of infection in metropolitan areas and the lack of resources and personal protective equipment in some areas. Emotional and psychological issues seem to be on the rise, probably geared off a combination of factors referred to above as well as many others.

Turning to the Government, there have been and are ongoing challenges to lockdown and the regulations that have been imposed and promulgated in relation to the varying stages of lockdown. The on and off cases brought by the tobacco industry and its organisations have highlighted not only the loss in revenue to the producers but also the loss to the fiscus from taxes and duties. Sectors of civil society have been vocal on the restriction of sale of tobacco products particularly in respect of the black market trade that has arisen for cigarettes (and prior to stage 3 alcohol) which has the potential to continue once tobacco products are legitimised. The recent decision of Justice Norman Davis of the North Gauteng Division of the High Court declaring the level 4 and 3 lockdown regulations unconstitutional and invalid was greeted with some relief. The court suspended the declaration of invalidity for a period of 14 days within which period Minister Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, in consultation with the relevant ministers, has to review, amend and republish the regulations with due consideration to the limitation each regulation has on the rights guaranteed in the Bill of Rights. The State has obviously appealed the decision, commentators have indicated the appeal is likely to be successful. It has however demonstrated a chink in the Government’s armour that will be tested repeatedly. A further example of successful action against the State is the recent judgment won by Sakeliga against the Minister of Small Business Development overturning his requirement that small businesses are required to be registered with the Commission for Intellectual Property and Companies in order to operate under level 3 regulations. This judgment has directly opened up further trading opportunities.

The above is intended to show challenges, trends and opportunities. South Africans have been under some of the most restrictive lockdown regulations imposed since the Covid-19 outbreak and our society has, so far, largely been cooperative and maintained compliance with the requirements imposed. In doing this the combined intention has been to keep infection rates low or as low as possible. The current trend shows spikes in metropolitan areas that indicate limited success in these areas. The elephant in the room is the potential return to higher level lockdown and it is at this stage that the will of Government and the people is likely to clash.

PETER BAGSHAWE holds a Bachelor of Law degree from the former University of Rhodesia and a Bachelor of Laws degree from the University of the Witwatersrand.