THE LAST WORD

CRIME, INVESTMENT AND ELECTIONS

Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana recently urged foreign investors not to be deterred by isolated incidents of criminality, and gave the assurance that improving South Africa’s safety and security situation was one of the Government’s top priorities.

By Peter Bagshawe

Given that this was after the period of what has variously been described as unrest or insurrection between 9 and 18 July 2021, the focus of the Government must be squarely on the Justice, Crime Prevention and Security as well as the National Joint Operational and Security clusters. The performance of the South African Police Service during this period, the lack of forewarning and information from state intelligence organs and the role of the private security industry in its services to clients and communities are all factors that require investigation and, with the exception of the last, rectification and remediation. The reassurance given by Minister Godongwana may, however, ring somewhat hollow following Liberation Struggle War Veterans holding the Minister in the Presidency Mondli Gungubele, Minister of Defence Thandi Modise, Deputy Minister of Defence Thabang Makwetla and delegates from the Presidency hostage for three hours in the St George’s Hotel in Irene, Pretoria during the evening of 14 October 2021. A further concern is the request by the Minister appears to border on asking for condonation of criminality within South Africa.

At the time that Minister Godongwana made his remark that foreign investment should not be deterred by violence, Bloomberg added a notation to their report on this that 5,760 murders were recorded in South Africa for the period 1 June to 31 August 2021. Over the period of 92 days, this gives an average of 62 murders recorded per day by the South African Police Service. An outsider would, in all likelihood, look at the available statistics to review the position in South Africa with regard to murder and the rate of murders. In this regard, the last data published by the South African Police Service and Stats South Africa was presented to Parliament on 20 August 2021, covering the period 1 April to 30 June 2021 (First Quarter 2021 within their financial year) which shows a 66,2% increase in murders when compared to the First Quarter 2020. This increase is immediately eye-catching, as are the quarter-on-quarter increases for Contact Crimes at 60,6% and Contact Related Crimes at 43,3%. As is often the case with raw statistics, the data needs to be reviewed and contextualised. As pointed out by Minister of Police Bheki Cele, 2020 figures coincided with the start of the Level 5 hard Covid lockdown in South Africa, with minimal opportunity for interaction (with the heavy-handed reaction of the South African Police Service and South African National Defence Force in their initial enforcement role) and the strictures on the sale of alcohol leading to the loweri ng of First Quarter 2020 figures. If First Quarter 2021 is compared to First Quarter 2019, which Minister Cele referred to as a normal period, the increase in the murder rate increased by 6,7%, which is unacceptable. Simple mathematics indicates that the number of murders, based off the 5,760 murders in the First Quarter, will give some 23,000 murders in the 2021-2022 financial year, according to the South African Police Service. Again, unacceptable.

However, reports of shootings and murders in October 2021 do evidence the existence of a progression of increased violence in the lead up to elections.

At the time of writing, the 2021 local election voting, scheduled for 1 November 2021, is some seven days away. On 25 October, Minister of Police Cele announced – in his capacity as a member of the Justice, Crime Prevention and Security cluster – that the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Gauteng and Kwa-Zulu Natal had been identified as provinces with high risk areas for political violence prior to and during the election process, with the other five provinces having ‘pockets’ of problems. Law enforcement members would be deployed at all voting stations in line with the identified risk profiles, with no detail made available of the number of members deployed — the Minister merely advising that adequate numbers would be provided. Prior to this, Cele had noted that some 300 polling stations had, nationally, been identified as high risk localities. Minister of Defence Thandi Modise, who was present at the same briefing, advised that the National Joint Operational and Security cluster was working in conjunction with the Security cluster with Minister Modise further warning that criminality would not be tolerated by the authorities. More ominous was the reference by Minister Cele to the need to counter political violence. In this regard, he referred directly to the murder of ANC Councillor Tshepo Motsaung in Mabopane. Taken in isolation, this murder would not be indicative of a trend. However, reports of shootings and murders in October 2021 do evidence the existence of a progression of increased violence in the lead up to elections.

A review of reports for instances of murder in the October 2021 timeframe relating to political affiliations paints a sombre picture with James Khumalo, the Economic Freedom Fighters deputy chairperson in Olievenhoutbosch and Ward 20 councillor candidate in Msunduzi, Thulani Shangase, were both shot dead. Turning to African National Congress members actively involved in the election and political processes who were killed in the same timeframe in shootings that have a political link, these include Tshepo Motsaung (Mabopane), Siyabonga Mkhize (Cato Crest) and Smanga Zulu (KwaMakhutha). In eThekwini, Ncami Shange, Beatrice Dlamini, and Philisiwe Jili were, whilst on their way to an ANC election rally, shot dead outside a school in eNanda. Former eThekwini Mayor, Zandile Gumede, recently stated that internecine violence within political parties had escalated to the point where bodyguards were necessary, this supports the view given above. Historically, the local government elections in 2011 and 2016 were run in a relatively peaceful atmosphere in most of South Africa, although the KwaZulu-Natal polls were marred by the killing of leaders and candidates with some 33 political murders reported in the run up to the 2016 elections. A further causative factor in the politically linked violence is also seen to be that holding political office affords the opportunity for a salary, benefits, possible access to tenders and side benefits. The exercise of the right to vote and hold diverse or alternative political views should not be life threatening nor should physical violence be permitted relative to the exercise of a fundamental right.

South Africa has – as a nation – apparently become inured to criminality, violence and murder over a protracted period. It may be argued that there is a State role in the acceptance of violence and examples of this include the number of members of the South African Police Service under investigation by the Independent Police Investigative Directorate for serious crimes and the heavy-handed approach of the South African Defence Force when deployed during the initial hard Covid-19 lockdown. However, the problem is far wider and includes, at a minimum, gang activity, unemployment, expectations of a lack of consequences due to inadequate investigations as well as societal norms. There is recognition of these exposures — however, the lack of stability at upper management within the South African Police Service continues to exacerbate challenges within the enforcement of law and order.

Given the more established societal norms in place in the majority of countries where investment is likely to come from the attraction of investing capital in South Africa is likely to be reviewed closely prior to a decision being made. Whilst I can understand, to an extent, the reasoning behind the request made by Minister of Finance Godongwana, it will take hard and focused marketing of the country to achieve his desired result.

PETER BAGSHAWE holds a Bachelor of Law degree from the former University of Rhodesia and a Bachelor of Laws degree from the University of the Witwatersrand.