CRIME STATISTICS 2018-2019

CRIME STATISTICS 2018-2019

The annual report detailing South Africa’s crime statistics for 2018-19 period were released by the Minister of the South African Police Service, Bheki Cele, to Parliament on 12 September 2019. In a piece of understatement, the statistics were categorised by Minister Cele as “not very rosy”.

As is annually the case, the accuracy of the statistics and the mechanisms (and possible avoidance) of reporting of crimes at stations has been raised as an issue, as has the value of an annual report that of itself forces reactive policing methodologies.

Going back in time, crime statistics have been presented annually since, from memory, 2012 – having previously been presented quarterly, which is widely regarded as better basis for the planning of crime prevention and analysis.

Additionally the crime statistics are some 6 months out of date and do not reflect the recent spate of high profile cases and the resulting current focus on gender based violence is absent from the statistics.

Historically, I have reviewed the annual statistics and referred extensively to the breakdown of the “trio crimes” that have been a focus point of the South African Police Service (SAPS) in conjunction with the drive towards increased visible policing that has been part of the strategy espoused by the SAPS.

At this stage, a different approach is needed and an examination of social implications is appropriate.

In overview, the 2018-2019 period crime statistics show upward trends in the areas of contact crime as well as property crime, with shifts within the latter.

The first point of review of South African crime statistics is always murder, which is seen as the purest of the classes of crime reported on in that there is always a body associated with the crime as direct evidence.

Before looking at the local situation, a review of the world murder rate per 100 000 inhabitants puts South Africa in 9th position in the world, with a murder rate of 36.4 per cent.

This is bracketed between Lesotho (38 per cent) and Swaziland (33.8 per cent). This is based on the World Atlas data for 2018 and the current South African murder rate has been substituted for the then current 2018 South African rate of 33.

Based off the 2018 deaths figures provided by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights figures for 2018, there were more deaths by murder recorded in South Africa (21 022) for the period 2018- 2019 than there were in Syria (19 799), which is damning when the protracted civil war and its aftermath in Syria is taken into account.

In overview the total number of crimes reported in the 2018- 2019 period reduced against the 2017-2018 period by 83 510 offences from 2 096 781 to 2 013 271, which is an overall reduction of 4 per cent.

Also to be taken into account in the overview is a reduction of 21.85 per cent in the number of crimes detected by the SAPS in the course of investigation and action to interdict offenders.

This appears to relate largely to the 28.1 per cent and 10.1 per cent reductions in the number drug related and illegal possession of arms and ammunition crime detected by police, but is countered by the 19 per cent increase in the detection of sexually related offences.

The last mentioned is a pleasing result if it can be related to alternative policing methods implemented as a result of methodology and direction within the police services and crime intelligence.

Commercial crimes have shown a substantial uptick by 14.4 per cent, and this is an indication of both the economic situation as well as a perception of the likelihood of escaping detection and prosecution.

Burglary and robbery at residential and non-residential premises, carjacking and truck hijacking all reduced on an annual basis, while robbery at non-residential increased marginally, which shows an improvement in physical security.

Contact crimes, which include in the category murder, attempted murder and sexual offences, common assault and robbery increased by 1.6 per cent but of interest is the break out on the days and times of murders committed. Murder as a subset increased by 3.4 per cent annually and 60 per cent of all murders took place over a weekend between 21h00 and 03h00.

If this is extended to include Mondays, the figure increases to 70 per cent of murders. The indications are that this is related to alcohol, drug abuse and gang activity which peak over weekends and more particularly around month-end pay days.

On a national split, Gauteng showed the highest number on annual murders at 4 495 but, on a population adjusted basis came in 5th behind the Eastern Cape, Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Free State.

The 21 022 murders show a trend upwards and within the total number of murders were 2 771 women and 1 014 children which is some 31 per cent of the total deaths. These were often at the hand of spouses/partners, parents or those in a position of guardianship and is an indication of the extent to which violence has become inured in our society to the point that this is an accepted reactive norm.

Attempted murder, assault, robbery, robbery with aggravating circumstances and robbery were all increased on an annual basis with a common level on a provincial basis. Here it would also be of interest to see if there is a common trend with heightened instances over weekends.

It is sobering that, since 1994, some 500 000 murders and in the region of 1 000 000 rapes have been recorded in South Africa.

Earlier reference to murders recorded of women and children require further consideration given the prominence of recent activism around gender based violence; an example of this was the march in Sandton on 6 September 2019, which largely closed off the commercial hub. The activism has become politicised and is likely to continue to enjoy prominence in political circles as well as Parliament with activists already reacting badly to the presence of politicians at rallies and widespread criticism of the reaction of the State President from a timing and content perspective being recorded.

The groundswell support for the activists and the astute use of social media will maintain this as a pressure point on the SAPS, the Minister of Police, Parliament and wider society, rightly so.

Despite the best efforts of management and on the ground efforts by members of the South African Police Service the curbing of violent crime and more specifically the reduction of contact, inter gender and partner related crimes will not be reduced without a change in attitude by society.

Given the recently publicised differential between local and international police to citizen ratios where the global norm is one police officer serving 220 people the SAPS are currently at 375 people per officer this opinion is reinforced.

If viewed alternatively, the serious level of under staffing (being some 60 per cent of the international norm) will in turn drive a stretched police force already burdened with operational challenges further towards a position where reactive policing will remain the norm.

Given that current policing and enforcement procedures are not working alternative mechanisms for both should to be reviewed at Executive level.

The current debate on reintroducing the death penalty will not go further than the Constitutional Court (given its mandate) barring bipartisan cooperation in parliament which is unlikely.

Establishing and empowering special units for Family Violence, Child Protection and Sexual Offences have been mooted, however staffing and budget constraints are such that these are unlikely to gain traction.

Society will be forced to increase its reliance on private security which is not available to all, courts will remain under strain from an investigative and operational perspective and we can, unfortunately, expect more of the same when the 2019-2020 crime statistics are released.