F E AT U R E In the Midst of Chaos, There Is Also Opportunity... ...or Examining the Upside of the Upside Down by Gregg Schoppman, Principal, FMI Sun Tzu, the author of The Art of War, was a military strategist and tactician that lived thousands of years ago. Yet he is arguably one of the most studied individuals by military minds, business leaders, coaches who leverage his countless principles and theories to drive or optimize for success. While there are many barbaric and insidious strategies in Sun Tzu’s mantras, the quote “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity,” appears to strike a chord in these challenging times. Most likely referring to a military force striking an enemy during a time when their forces appear in disarray, we can all use this refrain as businesses attempt to craft a new strategy amidst these challenging times.
COVID-19 has taken so much. Whether it is the loss of life and millions of sick individuals, or the deeper economic ramifications of the “Post-COVID-19 Shutdown” that continue to evolve. Given our druthers, I am sure every human would opt for a year where no pandemic required life to alter so greatly. However, Sun Tzu’s quote might have a deeper meaning for the world. English theologian and historian, Thomas Fuller, had a similar quote that has a similar theme – “It is darkest before dawn.” Great leaders recognize the pain and agony of any horrible situation but it is the greatest of them that identify the positive to create opportunity.
The Markets Jay Bowman, Principal and Leading Researcher at FMI, has used another descriptor that may provide context for future strategy. “Bears and bulls exist in all economies.” Bowman references this quote when examining the last great recession: His thesis is that even during the Great Recession, there were markets that thrived and grew. So much of the first half of 2020 has been focused on playing defense, whether it be against COVID-19 or simply battling the market forces. Strategies are tested all the time and markets are hardly static. In fact, there will be opportunity for nimble and agile businesses to
Figure 1 - 2006- 2011 Percent Change in Construction Spending Put in Place (US Total) SOURCE - FMI
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