INDUSTRIAL SENTIMENT SURVEY APRIL 19, 2016
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NEGATIVE SENTIMENT STILL PREVALENT BUT INCHING TOWARD POSITIVE TERRITORY; SOME GREEN SHOOTS APPARENT IN SURVEY TRENDS Finding #1: #1: Expectations Are Stabilizing Yet 35% Still Anticipating Misses ‒
50% anticipating earnings to be in line with consensus
‒
KPIs (Revenue, EPS, Margins) still expected to worsen but not as badly
Inside The Buy Side®
Finding #2: Industrial Sentiment Needle Is Moving Toward Bullishness But Cautious Bearishness Persists ‒
44% now biased toward bullishness versus 18% in December while bias toward bearishness has decreased from 61% to 43%
‒
77% expect valuations to remain the same or expand versus 67% in December
Finding #3: A Pivotal Moment In Buy/Sell Behavior Is Apparent ‒
Net sellers of industrials plunged to 6% from 24% in December
‒
Nearly 80% either holding or rotating within the sector
Finding #4: #4: Investors Still Concerned About The Macro Backdrop Especially As It Relates To Growth ‒
56% believe we are in an industrial recession and ~two-thirds did not see the post-February stabilization in oil and the U.S dollar as an inflection point for industrial recovery
Finding #5: Nonetheless, ~Two~Two-thirds Expect Some Acceleration In Cycle Orders This Year, Suggesting A Better Organic Sales Outlook in 2H16 And Possibly 2017 ‒
May be approaching a turning point for sales growth rates as deep pessimism is abating
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EXPECTATIONS ARE STABILIZING BUT 35% STILL ANTICIPATE A MISS What Are Your Expectations For 1Q16 Earnings Relative To Consensus? 57% Better Than
56%
34%
Inside The Buy Side®
35%
31%
In Line Worse Than
50%
15%
13%
9% Sep '15
Dec '15
Mar '16
Better Than
In Line
Worse Than
“Lower interest rates and lower oil prices.” Sell Side | Europe
“Consumer confidence.” Buy Side | N.A. N.A.
“Demand environment, negative sentiment, and pricing.” Buy Side |
“Reasonably healthy end-markets despite negative macro sentiment.” Sell Side | Europe “Weather related.” Sell Side | Europe “Inflecting macro data.” Buy Side | N.A.
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“Continuation rather than deterioration is the current realty.” Sell Side | Europe
“Non-operating levers (i.e., repurchase) still a positive but underlying demand is weaker.”
N.A.
“Macro not supportive.” Buy Side | Australia
“Weak
capex environment.” Buy
Side | N.A.
“My companies updated guidance recently to the lower “Things haven’t deteriorated since end of the range.” Sell Side | N.A. guidance was given.” Buy Side | Sell Side | N.A. N.A.
N.A.
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…KPIS STILL LARGELY EXPECTED TO WORSEN (ALBEIT NOT AS BADLY) EPS
Revenue
53%
72%
40% 48%
29%
37%
Inside The Buy Side®
10%
15%
Improving
16%
18%
Staying the Same
31% 31%
Worsening
Improving
Free Cash Flow
Staying the Same
Operating Margins 49%
44% 46% 36% 37%
36% 29%
25%
20%
Improving
Worsening
38%
25% 15%
Staying the Same
Worsening Dec ‘15
Improving
Staying the Same
Worsening
Mar ‘16
In Aggregate, 51% Expect Organic Growth To Be Between 1% And Negative In 2016 www.corbinperception.com
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NEEDLE MOVING TOWARD BULLISHNESS BUT CAUTIOUS BEARS PERSIST How Would You Describe Your Current Sentiment On Industrials? 43% 36%
Inside The Buy Side®
Dec '15
35% 21%
Mar '16
13% 5%
18% 13%
8%
Bullish
8%
Neutral to Bullish
Neutral
Neutral to Bearish
Bearish
“Inflecting data, low expectations and stabilizing earnings.” Buy Side | N.A.
“Slow growth global economy, decline in commodity capex.” Buy Side | N.A. N.A.
“Economic data is turning positive, China stabilizing.” Buy Side | N.A.
“End markets may be stabilizing but they are not accelerating up.” Buy Side | N.A.
“Seeing signs of stabilization.” Buy Side | N.A.
“Up
move in stocks won't be justified for most.”
Buy Side | N.A.
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VIEWS ON 2016 VALUATIONS INCH UP…SLIGHTLY What Do You Expect Industrial Valuation Multiples To Do? 39%
35% Dec '15
42%
28%
33% 23%
Inside The Buy Side®
Mar '16
Expand
Remain Flat
Contract
Expand
Remain Flat
Contract
“Coming out of weakness.” Sell
“We expect U.S. industrials to remain flat, Europe to tick a little better and UK catching up post the BREXIT vote in June.” Sell Side |
“Margins peaked last year and top line set to fall leading to decline in corporate profits.” Sell
Side | N.A. N.A.
“Unfavorable news behind us.” Buy Side | N.A. N.A.
Side | Europe
Europe
“Expected M&A opportunities.” Sell Side | Europe
“I think after major contraction in 2015, there will be modest expansion in 2016 as earnings decline.” Buy Side | N.A. www.corbinperception.com
“Multiples already pretty full in my sector - Building Materials.”
“Industrials still 15-20% above long term average valuation.” Buy Side | Australia
Sell Side | Europe
“Rising EPS and better margins counteract falling volumes and revenues.” Sell Side | N.A.
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INFLECTION POINT IN BUY/SELL BEHAVIOR; NET SELLERS PLUNGE TO 6% How Would You Describe Your Recent Activity In Industrials? 54% Jun '15 Sep '15
31% 23%
Inside The Buy Side®
Dec '15
8%
15%
24% 17% 14%
34% 34% 28% 25%
21% 6%
Mar '16 Net Buyer
32%34%
Net Seller
Holding
Rotating
Net Buyer
Rotating
Holding
“Too much cash on the sideline waiting for the go signal.” Buy Side
“Contra cyclical sectors pro defensive sectors.” Sell Side | Europe
“Net holding with exit from resources being balanced by opportunistic additions elsewhere.” Sell Side | Europe
| N.A. N.A.
“Slightly optimistic on the industrial cycle.” Sell Side | Europe “Positive overall based on company-specific prospects.” Sell Side | Europe
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”Staying slightly underweight, shifting to quality and some select value.” Buy Side | N.A. “Adding more industrial cyclical stocks and reducing expensive quality.” Buy Side | N.A.
“After a period of net selling, looks like values are holding.” Sell Side | N.A.
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STILL FEELING CONCERNED ABOUT MACRO BACKDROP Are We In An Industrial Recession?
Glass Half Full
69%
“I think we are coming out of an industrial recession.“
56% 44%
Dec '15
31%
Inside The Buy Side®
Mar '16
Buy Side | N.A.
“Economy will accelerate because of low energy and other commodity prices, so nothing is in recession.” Buy Side | N.A.
Yes
No
“Drilling and fracking will come back.” Buy Side | N.A.
Glass Half Empty Given The PostPost-February Stabilization (Oil, USD, etc.), Are Industrials At An Inflection Point? Point?
“Bear market rally, short covering.” Buy Side | N.A. N.A. “U.S. is weakening and EU anemic.” Buy Side | Other “1Q should have been the bottom.” Sell Side | N.A.
33%
67%
Yes www.corbinperception.com
No
“Oil price not linked to economy/demand but to falling over production in the U.S.” Buy Side | Other “Inflection point means we have been going down and now will go up. That has happened to some industrial stocks, primarily the commodity-related companies but has not happened to the sector as a whole.” Buy Side | N.A. Follow us @CorbinResearch
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EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ORDERS TO SLOWLY UPTICK IN 2H16
Inside The Buy Side®
How Do You Expect Industrial Order Rates To Perform Over Remainder Of 2016? 8%
14%
34%
19%
What Do You Expect From 2016 U.S. Industrial Sales Growth Rates vs. 2015? 62%
10%
38%
55%
31% 23%
40%
67%
15%
35%
18% Long-Cycle Products
31%
Short-Cycle Products
Services
Accelerate Somewhat
Remain the Same
Decelerate Somewhat
Strongly Decelerate
Faster Than
About The Same Dec '15
Slower Than
Mar '16
•
~2/3 expect some acceleration in short-cycle orders this year, suggesting a better organic sales outlook in 2H16 and possibly 2017
•
Accordingly, sentiment on full year 2016 sales growth rates has improved from deeply pessimistic December levels but is still subdued with only 31% expecting an uptick www.corbinperception.com
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HEADWINDS PERCEIVED TO BE ABATING; CONCERNS ABOUT EMS, CHINA AND GLOBAL CAPEX STILL PRESENT BUT LESS PRONOUNCED How Do You See The Following The Next 6 Months? India Economy
44%
Western Europe Economy
46%
U.S. Economy
Inside The Buy Side速
Other Developed Economies
China Economy
12%
13%
63%
19%
50%
37%
50%
Housing/Resi Const.
38%
47%
U.S. Consumer Spending
39%
Oil & Gas Markets
38%
Impact Of Strong Dollar
29%
Non-Resi Const.
29% 18% Improving
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19%
50%
18% 13%
10%
35%
37%
Other Emerging Economies
Global Capex Spending
46%
47%
6%
43%
18%
38%
24%
57%
14%
61% 37% Staying the Same
10% 45%
Worsening
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VIEWS ON END MARKETS REMAIN LARGELY INTACT WHILE NEGATIVE SENTIMENT ABATES
Predicted To Grow Faster Than GDP 76% 75%
Inside The Buy Side速
Building Products
71% 67%
Commerical Aero
84%
Resi-Construction
62% 66% 58%
Defense
76%
Non-Resi Construction
Previous
Predicted To Grow Slower Than GDP
55% Current
Some Shifts Occurring; Sentiment On Construction (Resi and NonNon-Resi) Still Strong But Seeing A Pullback www.corbinperception.com
94% 80%
Metals & Mining
87%
Machinery
64% 78%
Agriculture
62% 76%
Materials
61% 68%
Transportation
51% Previous
Current
Views Are Less Draconian; Sentiment on Industrial Equipment Largely Improved With 30% Fewer Expecting It To Lag Follow us @CorbinResearch
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INDUSTRIAL SENTIMENT SURVEY
ISSUE
• We survey institutional investors quarterly on topics pertaining to the upcoming earnings season, global economy and market drivers
Inside The Buy Side®
• We share our research broadly with executives/ investor relations (IR) professionals and investors
DATE:
APRIL 19, 2016
Market Performance 1Q16
OneOne-Year1
S&P 500
0.77%
(0.39%)
S&P Industrial
4.64%
(0.50%)
• Survey scope: 52 analysts and investors globally managing over $1.3 trillion in assets; 73% sectordedicated
1
As of 3’31’16
• Survey timeframe: March 21 to April 6, 2016 Sector Focus
Region
Role
2% 27%
31% 46%
54% 67%
73% Industrials
Generalist
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N. A.
Europe
Other
Buy Side
Sell Side
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Inside The Buy Side速
ABOUT US
We are Corbin Perception, a leading investor research and investor relations advisory firm that specializes in shareholder value creation. We leverage our broad company and industry experience, knowledge of best practices and benchmarking capabilities to provide research-driven counsel that enables our clients, publicly-traded companies across diverse industries, to positively differentiate their company in the market. We bring a unique perspective to our engagements, one that is based on a proven methodology and customized approach. Our industry-leading research, Inside The Buy-side速, is covered globally and regularly featured on CNBC. To learn more, visit our website at CorbinPerception.com www.corbinperception.com
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