Inside the Buy-side® 4Q14 by Corbin Advisors

INSIDE THE BUY-SIDE®

FOURTH QUARTER | ISSUE DATE: OCTOBER 9, 2014

Following

a strong performance in the second quarter, U.S. equity markets achieved modest gains in 3Q14, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ extending their streak to seven consecutive quarterly gains. Despite experiencing dips in early August and late September, the NASDAQ finished 1.9% higher in the quarter, the Dow gained 1.3% and the S&P 500 added 0.6%. In our ongoing effort to track changes in global investor sentiment and expectations, as well as provide insights heading into the earnings season, we polled 60 financial professionals across multiple industry segments and investment styles.1 In total, participating institutions manage upwards of $2.1 trillion in assets.

Investment Style

Geography

Institutional investors continued to shrug off geopolitical tensions and global economic malaise, choosing instead to embrace increasingly positive U.S. economic data. Notably, a third look at 2Q14 U.S. GDP showed an increase of 4.6%, rebounding from the first quarter’s 2.1% contraction, when weather wreaked havoc on the economy. On the economic front, Fed Chair Janet Yellen reaffirmed that interest rates would remain low for a “considerable period of time” following the end of quantitative easing. Looking overseas, the ECB in August cut interest rates to new all-time lows. It further announced a liquidity program that included a plan to purchase asset backed securities as a way to jumpstart lending, what some describe as the beginning of Europe’s own quantitative easing program.

North America | 62% Europe | 35% Latin America | 3%

Sector

Finally, the IPO market showed strength in the third quarter, with Chinese internet giant Alibaba raising a record-breaking $25 billion. Indeed, this quarter proved to be the busiest for IPOs in four years.

Timeframe: September 9 – 30, 2014

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Key Trends 

Survey findings indicate we are in an increasingly bullish period, at least in the U.S. –

Investor sentiment trends higher with 77% of contributors reporting they are cautiously optimistic or bullish compared to 69% last quarter

–

More investors call themselves outright bulls while fewer label themselves as bears

–

Investors are overwhelmingly bullish on the U.S. over the next 12 months; 4x more than the next highest-rated region

–

Perceived management tone has also improved; 38% note conversations are more upbeat with executives versus 32% last quarter



78% assert current market valuations are sustainable and point to underlying fundamentals



Offsetting some of the exuberance are increasingly growing fears about slowing global growth, specifically a stagnating Eurozone with deflationary pressure ‒ Of note, surveyed European investors are more pessimistic than their North American counterparts



As the third quarter earnings season gets underway, 76% of contributors expect results to be in line with or better than consensus expectations ‒ Greater than half continue to see cash flow and EPS growth improving this quarter, consistent with the prior quarter ‒

In general, European investors are looking for a worse than consensus performance



Participants report that consistent cash flow and organic growth are the most important financial characteristics in the current environment



Investment professionals report favoring industrials, IT, financials and healthcare and express bearish sentiment toward utilities, materials and energy stocks



Reinvestment is considered the best use of excess free cash, followed by M&A; dividends take a slight backseat after two consecutive quarters of dominance



88% believe the Fed will raise interest rates in 2015; 45% anticipate the hike will occur in the first half of 2015



67% of investors support tax inversions by U.S. companies; still, 42% maintain it creates an overhang on the valuation of re-domiciled companies

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Equity Markets Eke Out Modest Gains Contending with brief sell-offs in August and late September, U.S. stocks still managed to finish 3Q14 in the black. However, cause for concern was seen in the small-cap universe, as the Russell 2000 index tumbled 7.4%, its worst quarterly performance in three years. Indeed, nearly one-third of the study group is avoiding small-cap stocks. Technology emerged as the top performing S&P 500 sector, up 10.6%, followed by telecom and financials, which gained 4.7% and 4.6%, respectively. Underperforming sectors included utilities, off 2.0%, industrials, down 0.9% and consumer staples, which slipped 0.2%. 3Q14 Market Performance 105

100

95 9/30/14

9/26/14

9/22/14

9/18/14

9/14/14

9/10/14

9/6/14

9/2/14

NASDAQ +1.9%

8/29/14

8/25/14

8/21/14

8/17/14

8/13/14

8/9/14

8/5/14

8/1/14

7/28/14

7/24/14

7/20/14

7/16/14

7/12/14

7/8/14

7/4/14

6/30/14

DJIA +1.3%

S&P 500 +0.6%

Earnings Expectations Remain Positive; Strong Quarter Priced In Following a solid second quarter earnings season, which largely “surpassed fair expectations” by way of stronger revenues and margins, expectations heading into the third quarter remain positive and are largely expected to be in line to above consensus. Participants point to demand growth “surprising to the upside”, “accelerating” economic conditions and continued cost cutting as the basis for their optimistic sentiment. What Was Your Opinion Of 2Q14 Earnings Results? 51%

What Are Your Expectations For 3Q14 Earnings Performance? 46%

41%

30%

24%

8% Better Than

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In Line

Worse Than

Better Than

In Line

Worse Than

Meanwhile, the 24% of investors that expect 3Q14 results to be worse than consensus estimates cite a European slowdown, diminishing top-line growth and contend that “margins across the economy have maxed out.” Notably, European investors are far more pessimistic regarding 3Q14 earnings, with 50% expecting results to be worse than expected versus just 10% of North American investors. “Both revenues and profits are getting stronger. Our biggest worry is too much regulation on the financial companies.” Core Growth, Multi | North America “Business guides are on the low side. Costs appear to be well-contained and topline growth continues.” GARP, Generalist | Europe “I continue to believe the economy is stronger than many think. The strong dollar will hurt the earnings of multinationals but the market knows that.” Hedge Fund, Generalist | North America

“I believe top-line growth will continue to expand quarter-over-quarter.” Hedge Fund, Generalist | North America

In the current environment, surveyed investors maintain that consistent cash flow is king but are now more focused on organic growth than balance sheet flexibility, which has dropped significantly since the prior quarter. What Key Performance Metrics/Characteristics Are Most Important To You? 65% 63%

54% 35%

Consistent Cash Flow

Organic Growth

50% 39%

Top-line Growth 3Q14

47%

42%

Margins

41%

47% 33%

Bottom-line Growth

25%

Balance Sheet Flexibility

4Q14

“We think CapEx is going to improve and that will lean on cash flow so cash flow will come down a little bit. We think companies will increase CapEx over the next few years and that will limit cash flow. Organic growth will stay the same - slow.” Core Value, Financials | North America

“Organic revenue growth that is repeatable leads to financial flexibility to provide for buyback and dividend increases.” GARP, Generalist | North America “I like to see returns.” Core Growth, Generalist | North America

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Market Sentiment Continues To Rise As equity markets finished modestly higher in 3Q14, investor sentiment rose with 56% of surveyed respondents describing themselves as cautiously optimistic compared to 51% last quarter amid “a continued positive trend in corporate earnings and free cash flows.” Further, those reporting a bullish outlook increased 3% to 21%, while the percentage of those describing themselves as bearish fell to 2% from 4%. Positive sentiment is largely driven by ample liquidity and “improving business trends.” Investor Sentiment -- Prior Quarter

Investor Sentiment -- Current Quarter

Bullish | 18%

Bullish | 21%

Cautiously Optimistic | 51%

Cautiously Optimistic | 56%

Neutral | 14%

Neutral | 6%

Neutral to Bearish | 13%

Neutral to Bearish | 15%

Bearish | 4%

Bearish | 2%

According to CP historical data, the percentage of respondents characterizing themselves as bullish has risen for three consecutive quarters, while the level of bearish sentiment has fallen over the same period. Bulls vs. Bears Trend Analysis 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13 Bulls

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

Bears

“There are large volumes of un-invested cash. Markets have stood up to a lot of bad news in 2014 indicating underlying resilience.” GARP, Generalist | Europe “The period around mid-term elections is historically strong and I think the economy will continue to experience steady, if somewhat choppy growth.” Hedge Fund, Generalist | North America

“The negative sentiment and lack of direction from Washington D.C., particularly regarding tax and energy policy, continues to hamper growth. We need to move from a Federal Reserve-driven economy to a market-driven economy.” Hedge Fund, Generalist | North America

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Our quarterly channel check on performance metrics indicates greater confidence in companies’ ability to deliver continued upside in EPS and FCF than was seen last quarter, though the percentage of those who cite improvement in organic growth fell from 60% to 45%. As well, the number of investors who see these metrics worsening remains minimal, at less than 15%. Organic Growth

EPS Growth

FCF Growth

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 1Q13

2Q14

3Q14 Improving

0% 1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

Staying the Same

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

Worsening

Management Tone Increasingly More Positive According to surveyed investors, positive management tone continues to trend higher. Notably, respondents reporting a “bullish” stance rose to 38% from 32% last quarter. Meanwhile, those who report a “less negative” tone fell to 8% from 12%, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline. Investors attribute their increase in optimism to a pickup in economic activity but advise that “there is still a caution that everybody seems to be communicating and that has not changed.” Of note, investors who reported that management tone is more negative are European-based. Management Tone -- Prior Quarter

Bullish | 32% Cautiously Optimistic | 50% Less Negative | 12% More Negative | 6%

Management Tone -- Current Quarter

“It seems that the economically-sensitive companies are on plan, maybe a little better, led by the U.S. but Europe and LatAm are a little worse. It doesn’t sound like anything is out of expected ranges.” Core Growth, Multi | North America

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Valuations Seen As Sustainable The percentage of investors who consider current market valuations sustainable rose considerably quarter-over-quarter, to 78% from 69% last quarter. Valuations are “in line with historical averages”, say contributors, while “worries of rising rates are overblown” and “corporations are seeing growth in earnings, sales and free cash flow.” Further 14% maintain that current valuations are sustainable so long as the “top and bottom line continue to perform.” Are Markets Sustainable At Current Levels? 2Q14

3Q14

Yes | 47%

Yes | 64%

Yes with Caveats | 22%

Yes with Caveats | 14%

No | 31%

No | 22%

Continuing, the minority who question the sustainability of market levels note that current valuations “are not supported by the fundamentals” while asserting that “financial engineering” of earnings will be difficult to maintain. European investors remain somewhat more skeptical of current market valuations, as just 67% believe them to be sustainable versus 83% of North American contributors. “Valuations are not cheap. I think that does affect the long-term return but they are not as high as a 3% or 3.5% 10-year yield. I don’t think that’s going to derail this bull market.” Index, Generalist | North America “Corporate

profits

are

likely

improve

the

economy

improves.”

Core Value, Multi | North America

“Although further appreciation seems difficult for me as the market is paying moderate growth in advance, I see little risk for a substantial correction.” Yield, Generalist | Latin America

Investment Themes And Sector Trends Surveyed investment professionals indicate that high quality/low beta, secular growth and dividend stocks are the most attractive investment themes, while industrials, IT and financials are the sectors earning the most bullish sentiment, given their cyclical nature in an economy experiencing “credit expansion” and expectations for “improvement in global growth”.

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Similar to last quarter, participants maintain they are avoiding low quality/high beta, early cycle themes and small-cap stocks. Additionally, investors are bearish on utilities, telecom and energy, with high-yielding sectors viewed as disadvantaged in an interest rate normalization period. Finally, increased volatility in commodities has added to bearish sentiment towards the energy sector. Most Attractive 44%

High Quality/ Low Beta

Least Attractive 41%

42%

40%

Secular Growth Stocks

Dividend Yield

29%

27%

Low Quality/High Early Cycle Stocks Beta

Small-cap Stocks

“In the U.S., larger companies look cheaper than smaller companies. In addition, at least historically, they have been more resilient when the Fed starts to raise rates. In other words, their multiples tend to hold up better.” Index, Generalist | North America Sector Snapshot

11%

49%

47%

13%

24%

28% 22%

Industrials

Financials

45%

39%

Healthcare Consumer Discretionary Bullish

31% Energy

30% 22%

24% Consumer Staples

46%

18%

12%

Materials

Telecom

Utilities

Bearish

“Sectors most tied to the U.S. consumer should outperform resource-based sectors that are more dependent on China. In the very short-term, defensive sectors may do best.” Core Value, Generalist | Europe “I am bullish on Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials and Tech. Why? Improvement in the labor market, credit expansion, improvement in global growth and significant growth of technology companies.” Core Value, Multi | Latin America “The mining industry is over capitalized. Traditional utilities are losing out on their defensive nature.” Core Value, Multi | North America

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Around The World: Optimism Abounds On U.S. But Apprehension Elsewhere U.S. Not surprisingly, the U.S. continues to be a light in an otherwise bleak world with 61% of contributors maintaining they are overwhelmingly bullish on the region. They attribute their upbeat sentiment to a variety of factors, including weakness elsewhere but more importantly, strengthening fundamentals, an improving jobs outlook along with low interest rates and inflation.

Looking Out 12 Months, On Which Region Are You Most Bullish? 61%

U.S. 15%

Eurozone

Japan China Southeast Asia

7% 4%

2% “The fundamentals of the U.S. economy show Canada it to be extremely well-positioned compared to Latin America 2% other markets around the globe. Industrial production and jobs continue to improve and U.S. companies are producing fantastic earnings and cash flows. On top of that, stock valuations do not look excessive.”

Income Value, Generalist | North America

Europe Stepping outside the U.S., anemic growth in the Eurozone as well as the situation in the Ukraine remain top concerns. The fear of the Eurozone falling back into contraction prompted the ECB to lower key rates further during 3Q14 and paved the way for additional measures, including asset purchases, in an effort to keep price levels from falling further. What Are Your Leading Concerns Regarding Europe? 90%

44%

Economic Stagnation

Deflation

44%

38%

Geopolitical Lack of Risk in Eastern Government Europe Cohesion

23%

21%

19%

Anti-business Political Climate

Currency Risk

Fragile Banking System

Notably, European investors express significantly more unease on the Eurozone, with 47% considering themselves “very concerned” about the health of the region versus 17% of North American investors. Moreover, European investors are more apprehensive regarding a Eurozone slowdown and the prospects for deflation, while those from North America are more focused on upheaval in Ukraine, lack of government cohesion, currency risks and an anti-business political climate. “The primary concerns are the very low growth that we are seeing in the economy which we think is a function of very large consumer debt load. The consumer is CorbinPerception.com

using excess cash flow to pay down debt instead of spending it. What we have here is a debt liquidation cycle for the consumer.” Core Value, Financials | North America “I’m concerned that rates won’t rise as my clients need more income. Geopolitical tensions and Russia are short-term factors that could create opportunities and should never be a concern for long-term investors.” GARP, Industrials | North America “There is potential for policy errors by governments/central banks.” Core Value, Generalist | Europe

“We are very concerned about Europe. We think about a third of the continent is in recession right now and deflation. We are very concerned about companies doing business there. That is part of our analysis. It is not going to chase us out of the market altogether but it is certainly part of our analysis. As we look at various companies, we look at European exposure. We try to make a determination as to how much of it is priced into the market. It is pretty well known but not always priced in.” Core Value, Financials | North America “The economy is still extremely weak and vulnerable. I do not want to be exposed to European stocks.” Growth, Generalist | Europe China A slowdown in China is also a worry for investors, as the country continues to try to rein in excessive credit creation while attempting to maintain economic growth. Additionally, a slump in China’s real estate market presents downside risk, one that prompted policymakers to shift focus away from reform and toward supporting growth. “In China, the slowdown in the pace of growth appears to have come to an end. The data is still somewhat uncertain but at the margin, the government is being supportive and, in contrast, European policymakers have many more levers to pull.” GARP, Generalist | Europe

Latin America Fears spread globally after Argentina failed to make a bond coupon payment in July, which led S&P to declare the country in default. The country has engaged in a long-running court case with several U.S. hedge funds over debt repayment. Moreover, the region as a whole has investors on edge, with growth estimates reduced for the majority of countries within Latin America during the quarter. While data shows that investors are apprehensive, they may not be pricing in the full downside risk as channel checks with several multi-national executives indicates that the region is likely “to get worse before it gets better.” Continuing, the fiscal health of sovereign nations globally remains an overhang, as investors hope the likes of Greece, Venezuela and Portugal do not suffer the same fate as Argentina. “It depends on each company or industry, but the economic situation in Brazil is deteriorating.” Core Value, Multi | Latin America

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“Mexico is a leveraged play on the U.S. while their reform agenda has been completed.” Yield, Generalist | Latin America Top Concerns Prior Quarter

Current Quarter

Geopolitical Tensions China Slowdown, Real Estate Market Fed Policy (e.g., QE, rising rates, inflation) EU Deflation/Stagnation

EU Stagnation/Deflation Geopolitical Tensions China Slowdown, Real Estate Market Latin America Economy

Rate Hike Update: Sentiment Turns Increasingly Hawkish While the Fed looks to conclude its bond-buying program by year-end, investors have become more hawkish regarding their expectation for the Fed to hike its benchmark interest rate. Indeed, 45% of respondents believe the central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate in the first half of 2015, up from 36% last quarter, asserting that the Fed is “a tad more hawkish than they were back in June.”

When Do You Anticipate The Fed Will Announce Its First Interest Rate Hike? 45% 31% 12% 4%

Continuing, 43% of investors believe the Fed will raise 4Q14 1H15 3Q15 4Q15 2016 rates in the second half of 2015, in line with last quarter’s findings, while 8% believe the central bank will hold off tightening until 2016, down from 18%. In terms of a rate hike’s impact on equity markets, views on a market reaction are generally split: 

39% believe a tightening of monetary policy to be priced in, contending that the FOMC has “telegraphed it so dramatically” that “valuations are supportive as long as rates are not going to melt higher”



32% suggest there will be a short-term correction but view it positively given a hike implies a stronger economy “It really depends on the cadence but if the Fed is steady in raising rates, it is possible that markets will overlook the negative implications as long as the hikes are supported by a strong economy.” Core Growth, Generalist | North America “They may announce hikes but they are likely to keep real rates significantly negative for a very long time.” Core Growth, Multi | North America

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“I try not make such calls but the consensus is for the Fed to hike rates sometime in mid-2015.” Hedge Fund, Generalist | North America How Will Equity Markets React To The Fed's Likely Change In Interest Rate Policy?

Neutral; Already Priced In

39%

Short-term Correction/Medium to Long-term Positive

32%

Short-term Negative, Conversion to Bear Market

11%

Short-term Neutral/Continued Bull Market

11%

Other

“They are going to have to surprise the market to get a big negative reaction. If they raise it by a small amount, like 25 bps no earlier than next summer, we will have a relatively muted response from the markets. It is our view that the economy will prove to be unusually sensitive to rising rates. By the time they get it up over 1%, we will start to see some slowdown in the economy. That will feed back into the market eventually but it all depends on how quickly they increase rates.” Core Value, Financials | North America

“We are discounting it now. They have been calling for this interest rate rise for 18 months. It’s as if the stock market has predicted five out of the last five recessions. People jump to these conclusions as if it is a law of physics when in fact economics is a very fungible science. Logic would say that interest rates will rise from here but more importantly, we have decoupled the U.S. from Europe, Japan and China. In other words, we have central banks moving in contrary directions from one another as a function of their own internal issues. Europe is starting to do what the Fed did three or four years ago. If they have negative interest rates, they are buying down debt and we have our guys winding down the debt purchases after they blew the balance sheet out to $4.25 trillion. People are now talking about rising rates but they have been talking about it for many quarters. If rates are going to go up, why is a 30-year mortgage still stuck at 4.2%?” Hedge Fund, Generalist | North America “If the Fed raises rates in a slow and steady fashion then equity markets will be fine.” Core Value, Generalist | North America

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Hot Topic: Tax Inversions The majority of respondents, or 67%, support the use of inversions by U.S. companies seeking to lower their tax bills. Investors assert they favor “whatever is in the best interest of shareholders” and note that it “creates awareness of the broken U.S. tax system.” Of note, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew’s actions to combat tax inversions on September 22 had little effect on survey respondent views on the matter. Interestingly, 42% of surveyed respondents contend that tax inversions create an overhang on the valuation of re-domiciled companies given uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of the lower tax rate. Do You Support Tax Inversions By U.S. Companies?

Do Inversions Create An Overhang On The Valuation Of Re-domiciled Companies?

Yes | 67%

Yes | 42%

No | 33%

No | 58%

“It is legal. Companies ought to be doing things to benefit shareholders unless the government outlaws it. The issue with inversion is not necessarily the tax rate but how we tax overseas earnings. If they were to reverse that sort of thing, they would have to go after all the foreign domiciled countries. It will be interesting to see how they address it.” Core Value, Financials | North America “Given that the Treasury department has taken steps to disincentivise companies from engaging in tax inversions, I do believe that investors generally will become more hesitant and thus valuations could be impacted.” Core Value, Generalist | North America

“As long as these companies abide by the current income tax law, they should be allowed to make tax inversion decisions. Remember they still pay a high tax rate on their U.S. earnings.” Core Value, Multi | North America

Reinvestment Overtakes Dividends For the first time since 3Q13, reinvestment topped dividends as the preferred method for deploying excess free cash, as the cyclical economic recovery spurred investors’ confidence in growth potential. As well, desire for M&A showed a considerable increase, from 69% last quarter to 86%.

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While the appeal of dividends dropped just slightly, desire for buybacks remain virtually unchanged, as valuations continue to make share repurchases an unpopular choice. Indeed, U.S. companies repurchased $116.2 billion worth of stock in the second quarter, down 1.6% from a year ago and off 27% from the first quarter, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Excess FCF Preference -- Quarterly Trends 91% 81%

89% 87%

83% 81%

76%

66%

65%

72% 71%

84% 69% 68%

91%

86% 70%

60%

58%

44%

4Q13

1Q14 Dividend Growth

Reinvestment

2Q14 M&A

Share Repurchase

3Q14 Debt Reduction

IR Research: Sell Side Part II Corbin Perception recently conducted a survey on the buy side’s use of the sell side. While the role of the sell side has changed post-Reg FD (2000), the vast majority of surveyed investors, 96%, reports utilizing the sell side to some extent. Selected key findings include: 

75% report utilizing both internal and sell side-generated research as part of their investment approach –



Research

65%

Models

58%

Corporate Access

53%

Idea Generation Insight/Nuances

50% 35%

Leading resource to learn about new investments; for small-caps, coverage is critical

Not all are created equal; the buy side reports they typically maintain close relationships with a few analysts –



How Do You Utilize the Sell Side?

Leading attributes of a top-quartile analyst include company and industry knowledge, differentiated research and long-term, balanced views

For most buy side professionals, attendance at sell side conferences is a significant, valuable part of their job –

Most appreciate the opportunity for one-on-one meetings and the ability to view presentations from multiple companies in a single day

CorbinPerception.com

–



How Many Sell Side-Sponsored Conferences Do You Attend Annually? None | 14%

76% of investors recommend companies travel with bearish analysts because: –



Break-out sessions and new idea generation are also viewed as valueadd

1 to 3 | 40% 4 to 6 | 30% 7 to 10 | 8%

Management should be confident; not going can be perceived as “a sign of weakness”

–

Ability to change sell side opinion

–

Opportunity to understand sell side viewpoint

–

Investors may not agree with sell side stance

> 10 | 8%

How Many Close Sell Side Relationships Do You Maintain? None | 10% 1 to 2 | 14% 3 to 4 | 33%

It is important for an IR professional to utilize all available platforms to ensure company story is heard and understood; the sell side remains an integral cog in the marketing machinery

5 to 6 | 14% 7+ | 29%

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We are passionate about our work and develop relationships that are collaborative and long lasting. Our client value proposition is based on: 1) in-depth understanding of the buy side and IR best practices; 2) proven methodology yielding valuable insights and actionable recommendations; 3) strong track record of applying our knowledge to create value; 4) talented team with extensive C-suite and BoD advisory experience; and 5) a commitment to quality, service and client satisfaction. CorbinPerception.com info@corbinperception.com (860) 321-7309