A Solution to the Political Crisis Will Wait Until Autumn

The strong intervention of Western partners is needed to resolve the current Kosovo crisis, but also pressure on Albin Kurti. Furthermore, resolving the internal crisis resulting from the protests requires the reaching of a political agreement in Serbia. It would be tough for the summer to bring us solutions to both crises

Asweltering summer is just starting to heat up in Serbia, but the political temperature is already high. Neither a cold May nor a rainy June could “cool” what could be anticipated: Serbia returning to the political situation it experienced ahead of the April 2022 elections. This means lots of confrontation, little dialogue, excessive emotion and almost no mutual trust between the ruling coalition and the opposition. That’s why it’s important to note from the outset that summer will not be its usual boring self this year, rather it will be dynamic, in an environment of hypersensitivity and marked by various conflicts.

Although part of the public perceives the protests as being the biggest issue, that’s really not the case. Kosovo is in first place: it ranks high on the list of citizens’ priorities and the consequences of events in Kosovo can be felt everywhere, while Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia’s complex international mosaic (shaping relations with the EU, Russia and the U.S.) and, finally, it is a topic that is in large part beyond the control of the ruling coalition. The conduct of Kosovo leader Albin Kurti also represents a huge threat to peace and stability in the Western Balkans. The clashes occurring almost every day in North Kosovo will unfortunately not stop despite summer’s arrival.

The protests will remain lively over the short term, because there is still sufficient energy, solidarity and homogeneity, but it’s unrealistic to expect that energy won’t dissipate over the medium term. This is partly due to the summer months, but most important- ly due to the fact that there are no “small victories” (the meeting of demands) that could provide (boost) new dynamism to these protests.

Is it then possible that the summer will even bring a solution to the crisis? Unlikely. Resolving the current Kosovo crisis requires the strong intervention of Western partners and enormous pressure applied to Albin Kurti. This isn’t certain to happen in the short term. Resolving the internal crisis caused by the protests requires political agreement in Serbia, either regarding early elections or the launch of political dialogue. No third way exists. There is no such agreement because of the different strategies of the ruling coalition and the opposition. The government has a preference for elections, because it is the favourite to win them, while the opposition insists on using protests to weaken the ruling coalition (and only then holding elections).

A long, hot summer doesn’t favour either elections or protests, which is why a solution to the political crisis will have to be sought in autumn. If there is no kind of dialogue and elections are scheduled, we shouldn’t be surprised if these elections become another opportunity for confrontation, and not for overcoming the crisis. It wouldn’t be the first time.

Bojan Vranić Associate Professor, University of Belgrade Faculty of Political Science