Quarterly Review The Australian Residential Property Market and Economy Released April 2017
Contents Introduction
3
Housing Market
4
Mortgage Lending
11
Housing Supply
17
Demographic Overview
20
Household Finances
22
National Accounts
25
Inflation
26
Consumer Sentiment
27
Conclusion
28
About CoreLogic
30
Disclaimers
31
Introduction Although the current housing market growth phase is closing in on five years, the rate of growth actually accelerated over the first quarter of 2017 with combined capital city dwelling values 12.9% over the 12 months to March 2017 according to the CoreLogic Home Value Index. At the end of March, the combined capital city index was increasing at its fastest annual pace since May 2010. The ongoing increase in dwelling values has resulted in the total value of residential property nationally rising to $7.0 trillion. Four of the eight capital cities have recorded annual value growth of more than 10% over the past year with values in Sydney (+18.9%) rising at their fastest annual pace since November 2002, Melbourne values (+15.9%) have increased at their fastest pace since August 2010 and Canberra values (+12.8%) are rising at their fastest pace since July 2010. Values have also increased over the year in Brisbane (+3.7%), Adelaide (+3.4%) and Hobart (+10.2%) while they have fallen in Perth (-4.7%) and Darwin (-4.4%). Following dwelling value falls of around 6% during the financial crisis, combined capital city dwelling values have now increased by 68.5% since the end of 2008. While this suggests a strong market, it has been significantly influenced by growth in Sydney (+109.2%) and Melbourne (+92.4%) with Canberra recording the third highest rate of growth over the period at 39.6%. All other capital cities have seen dwelling values rise by less than 20.0% since the end of 2008.
$7.0 trillion Value of residential property
$2.1 trillion Value of Australian superannuation
$1.7 trillion Value of listed equities
$0.898 trillion Value of commercial
real estate The ongoing rises in home values are being supported by a low cost of borrowing (although mortgage rates are now starting to increase), strong total returns (in certain cities) and positive demographic and economic trends prevalent in Sydney and Melbourne. Given these factors look set to continue, at least for the short term, we are expecting that values will continue to rise over the coming year although we are expecting some heat to come out of the rate of growth due to recent moves made by the banking regulator and the growing affordability challenge for purchasers. As values have increased, the level of housing construction has also risen, as has participation from the investor segment of the market. While house construction has increased over recent years, it has been the surge in unit construction which has really altered the housing landscape. The last Census showed that units were more than twice as likely to be owned by investors as houses and with investor borrowing surging over recent years it is reasonable to conclude that many of these units have been purchased by investors. The other factor which is unclear is the magnitude of purchasing by offshore investors, official data is infrequent but it shows that there has been a surge in offshore investment over recent years. The surge in unit construction is already leading to units increasing in value at a slower pace than houses across a number of capital cities. The rental market is already showing the effects of the surge in new housing supply with rental growth having slowed markedly over recent years. With more stock in the pipeline, it is anticipated that rental growth is set to remain quite weak over the coming years. The other factor to watch will be what happens to vacancy rates as more rental stock hits the market over the coming years. Capital city dwelling values have now been rising for almost five years and the rate of growth has accelerated in Sydney and Melbourne. While lower mortgage rates have improved mortgage serviceability, for those that don’t own a home it is increasingly difficult for them to firstly save a large enough deposit and secondly to compete with the equity that current home owners have built over recent years. The housing market conditions prevalent in Sydney and Melbourne are not prevalent across the rest of the country however, these cities are being supported by strong economic and demographic conditions which are fuelling mortgage demand. Mortgage rates have clearly played a role in driving housing demand in Sydney and Melbourne but the relatively weaker economic conditions outside of these two cities have dampened housing demand elsewhere. With affordability becoming stretched we are seeing increasing pushes for housing market reform from Government. These calls are expected to only grow louder the longer the current growth conditions persist.
3
Housing Market Capital city dwelling values are increasing at their fastest annual pace since May 2010
Home values across the combined capital cities increased by 3.5% over the first quarter of 2016 to be 12.9% higher over the year. At the same time last year the rate of annual value growth was slowing and with values rising by 6.4%, growth a year ago was less than half its current level. Houses have recorded a more rapid rate of annual growth (13.4%) than units (9.8%) over the past year with only Darwin recording a stronger performance for units than houses. Dwelling values have increased at a compound annual rate of 5.8% over the past decade which is less than half the rate of growth over the past year. Following value falls of -6.5% between March 2011 and May 2012, capital city home values have been trending higher ever since and over the period they have increased by 49.3%.
Quarterly and annual change in capital city home values 25%
Quarterly change
Annual change
20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
Double-digit value growth over the past year in four of the eight capital cities
While combined capital city home values rose by 12.9% over the 12 months to March 2017, across individual capital cities there has been some significant variation. Sydney and Melbourne have led the growth over the past year with values rising by 18.9% and 15.9% respectively with Hobart and Canberra also recording double-digit growth of 10.2% and 12.8% respectively over the year. Value growth has remained moderate in Brisbane, and Adelaide while Perth and Darwin continued to record value falls. Sydney house values have increased by 19.7% over the past year and units by 15.3%. Dwelling values are now increasing at their fastest annual pave since November 2002. Melbourne dwelling values have recorded their fastest pace of annual growth since August 2010. Over the past year house values have increased by 17.2% compared to a 5.2% increase in unit values. In Brisbane, dwelling value growth has remained moderate over the past year however, the increase in house values (4.0%) has substantially outstripped growth for units (0.2%).
Change in capital city home values, 12 months to March 2017 25% 20%
18.9% 15.9%
15%
12.8%
12.9%
Canberra
Combined capitals
10.2%
10% 3.7%
5%
3.4%
0% -5%
-4.4%
-4.7%
-10% Sydney
4
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Housing Market
Adelaide home value growth has also been moderate over the year with the 3.6% increase in house values much greater than the 1.7% increase in unit values. Dwelling values in Perth have continued to fall over the past year with houses (-4.6%) recording a more moderate decline than units (-5.5%). Hobart dwelling values have recorded an acceleration in growth over the past year largely due to an 11.0% increase in house values while the 2.7% increase in unit values is much more moderate. Overall dwelling values in Darwin have continued to fall however, unit values have increased by 6.9% over the past year but the -7.0% fall in unit values has dragged the overall performance lower. The Canberra housing market has experienced an acceleration of dwelling value growth throughout 2016 with values increasing by their fastest annual rate since July 2010. Over the past year, house values have increased by13.6% compared to a 1.6% increase in unit values.
Capital city housing recorded a total return of almost 17% over the past year
Over the 12 months to March 2017, total property returns which factor in both capital growth and rental returns have been recorded at 16.7%. Investors enjoyed double-digit returns from residential property over the past year in Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra. All other capital cities except Perth (-1.0%) recorded positive total returns over the year however, they were relatively moderate. The strong returns from property highlight why investment in certain cities has been and remains popular.
Capital city total returns, 12 months to March 2017 25% 20%
22.6% 19.4%
17.5%
16.1%
16.7%
15% 10%
8.1%
7.7%
5% 0.4% 0% -1.0%
-5% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide
5 Quarterly Review | March 2017
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra Australia 8 Capitals
Housing Market Growth in Sydney and Melbourne over recent years has eclipsed all other capital cities
Following a decline of -6.5% between October 2010 and May 2012, combined capital city dwelling values have increased by 49.3% to March 2017. The chart below shows the increase in home values across the current growth phase in each capital city with Sydney and Melbourne recording a substantially higher level of growth than all other capital cities. Considering that Hobart has recorded the third highest rate of growth at just 25.9%, it is clear that this growth phase has been very much focussed on Sydney and Melbourne. Outside of the three major capital cities, values have increased by between 20% and 30% in Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra, and by less than 20% in the remaining capital cities. Interest rates are usually named as the culprit for such strong growth but all cities have the same interest rates yet Sydney and Melbourne have substantially outperformed all other capital cities.
Change in capital city home values over the current growth phase to March 2017 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
77.3% 57.3% 49.3%
20.1%
25.9%
24.5%
15.6%
10.2%
7.0% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra Australian capitals
Since value falls in 2008 housing market growth conditions have been significantly skewed towards Sydney and Melbourne
In 2008 during the financial crisis, capital city dwelling values fell by -6.1% between March and December but with lower interest rates and first home buyer stimulus dwelling values began to rise thereafter. As has been the case with the most recent growth phase, since the global financial shock it has been the two largest capital cities that have seen substantial value growth while other capital cities have recorded relatively moderate increases in values. The relative strength of the Sydney and Melbourne economies, strong migration into those cities and a relatively low supply of stock available for sale has supported this growth in dwelling values which has not been apparent in other capital cities. Since December 2008, Sydney dwelling values have double while Melbourne values have almost doubled. Canberra has seen the third highest increase in values since 2008 however, cumulative growth has been less than half that of Sydney and Melbourne. Outside of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra all other capital cities have recorded value growth of less than 20% since the end of 2008.
Change in capital city home values, December 2008 to March 2017 120%
109.2% 92.4%
100% 80%
68.5%
60% 39.6%
40% 16.3%
20%
17.8% 7.0%
15.1%
18.5%
Hobart
Darwin
0% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide
6 Quarterly Review | March 2017
Perth
Canberra Combined capitals
Housing Market Overview There is a premium of about 20% for houses as opposed to units
At the end of March 2017, the median selling price of a capital city house was recorded at $613,200 and the median unit price was $512,200, a gap of 20%. Canberra has the largest gap (in dollar terms) between houses and units recorded at $260,000. The dollar value gap across the remaining capital cities is recorded at: $165,000 in Sydney, $195,000 in Melbourne, $127,000 in Brisbane, $95,000 in Adelaide, $95,000 in Perth, $63,900 in Hobart and $107,200 in Darwin. In percentage terms, the gap between house and unit selling prices across the capital cities are recorded at: 23.1% in Sydney, 40.5% in Melbourne, 33.0% in Brisbane, 26.0% in Adelaide, 23.8% in Perth, 20.2% in Hobart, 25.4% in Darwin and 61.9% in Canberra.
Capital city median house and unit prices as at March 2017 $512,200
Combined capitals
Units
$613,200
Canberra
$420,000
Darwin
$422,500
Houses
$680,000
$529,700 $316,100 $380,000
Hobart
$400,000
Perth
$495,000 $365,000
Adelaide
$460,000 $385,000
Brisbane
$512,000 $482,000
Melbourne
$677,000 $715,000
Sydney
$880,000
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
Transaction activity is lower than its peak but has trended higher over recent months
It is estimated that over the 12 months to March 2017 there were 476,582 settled dwelling sales nationwide. Compared to 2015, the number of transactions was -5.1% lower however, prior to the Christmas / New Year slowdown transaction volumes were picking-up. The combined capital cities recorded an estimated 302,907 settled sales over the year which accounted for 64% of total sales nationally. Capital city transactions were -7.5% lower over the past year than the previous year. Monthly number of settled dwelling sales 70,000 Across the individual capital cities, the annual change in transactions was recorded at: 60,000 -4.8% in Sydney, -13.3% in Melbourne, -11.1% in Brisbane, +1.6% in Adelaide, -1.6% 50,000 in Perth, +2.4% in Hobart, -7.1% in Darwin and -3.0% in Canberra. 40,000 Note that these figures only count settled sales; off-the-plan sales are unsettled and will 30,000 not settle until they are completed, at that time these sales will be counted at their contract 20,000 date. Given this, it is expected that recent years of 10,000 sales activity will be revised higher over the coming years once these settlements occur. 0
7 Quarterly Review | March 2017
Housing Market Overview Discounting levels have continued to fall over the year Vendor discounting measures the difference between the initial list price and the ultimate selling price of properties which sell by private treaty for less than their original list price. Vendors that sold their homes below the initial list price are currently discounting them by 5.6%. Discounting is currently at its lowest level in two years. The current level of discounting across the individual capital cities is recorded Combined capital cities vendor discounting at: 4.5% in Sydney, 4.3% in Melbourne, levels 5.4% in Brisbane, 6.1% in Adelaide, 0% 8.1% in Perth, 4.8% in Hobart, 10.6% in -1% Darwin and 2.8% in Canberra. -2% Discounting levels are lower over the -3% past year in Sydney (-0.6%), Melbourne -4% (-1.9%), Hobart (-1.7%) Darwin (-1.9%) -5% and Canberra (-1.3%). -6% Across the remaining capital cities, -7% discounting levels have increased in -8% Adelaide (+0.4%), Perth (+0.8%) and -9% Darwin (+0.1%) and are unchanged in Brisbane.
The length of time it takes to sell a home is much lower than it was a year ago The days on market figure measures the average time from the first listing date to the contract date for properties sold by private treaty. Combined capital city homes are currently taking an average of 45 days to sell compared to 62 days at the same time a year ago. At an individual capital city level, the average days on market is recorded at 29 days in Sydney, 30 days in Melbourne, 68 days in Brisbane, 63 days in Adelaide, 86 days in Perth, 53 days in Hobart, 111 days in Darwin and 38 days in Canberra. The average days on market has reduced over the past year in Sydney (-30 days), Melbourne (-13 days), Adelaide (-2 days), Hobart (-10 days), Darwin (-5 days) and Canberra (-41 days). In Brisbane homes are taking 10 days longer to sell than they were a year ago and in Perth they are taking an additional 10 days to sell.
Combined capital cities days on market 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
8 Quarterly Review | March 2017
Housing Market Overview Rental growth has increased over recent months
Rental rates across the combined capital cities increased by 0.4% over the 12 months to March 2017 with house rents increasing by 0.3% compared to a 1.4% increase in unit rents. Rental growth has been steadily slowing since 2009 so the recent uplift his occurring against the long-term trend and it will be interesting to see whether supply additions over the coming months and years see the market revert to softening rental growth. At an individual capital city level, the annual change in dwelling rents have been recorded at: +1.4% in Sydney, +3.4% in Melbourne, -0.4% in Brisbane, +1.0% in Adelaide, -9.2% in Perth, +8.1% in Hobart. -12.8% in Darwin and +8.1% in Canberra.
Annual change in combined capital city dwelling rents 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2%
Gross rental yields hit record lows with values rising at a much faster pace than rents
At the end of March 2017, the gross rental yield for combined capital city dwellings was recorded at an historic low of 3.1% with rental yields for houses recorded at 3.0% and unit yields sitting at 4.0%. Gross rental yields were recorded at a higher 3.5% a year earlier with yields on houses recorded at 3.4% and 4.3% for units. Gross rental yields sit at record low levels currently in Sydney (2.9%) and Melbourne (2.8%). Across the remaining capital cities, gross rental yields are recorded at: 4.2% in Brisbane, 4.0% in Adelaide, 3.6% in Perth, 5.0% in Hobart, 4.7% in Darwin and 4.1% in Canberra. Canberra is the only capital city in which gross rental yields haven’t fallen over the past year, in Canberra they are unchanged over the 12 months.
Combined capital city gross rental yields 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2%
9 Quarterly Review | March 2017
Quarterly Review | March 2017
Mortgage Lending Investor mortgage demand fell in February while owner occupier demand has been steady for many months
Mortgagees borrowed a record high $32.9 billion in February 2017 from Australian lenders. The total value of housing finance commitments fell by -2.7% over the month, its first monthly fall in six months however, commitments are 3.5% higher year-on-year. The $32.9 billion in mortgage lending in February 2017 was comprised of $20.0 billion for owner occupiers and $12.9 billion for investors. Lending to owner occupiers has shown little change for the past eight months and is -2.3% lower year-on-year. The value of lending to investors was -5.9% lower over the month but is still 14.0% higher year-on-year. The fall in investor lending may mark a turning point in the market with APRA leaning on lenders to tighten lending policies to the investor segment of the market.
$25
Monthly value of housing finance commitments, National Owner occupier
Investor
Billions
$20 $15 $10 $5 $0
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Lending to owner occupiers has been steady for more than half a year
The $20.0 billion in mortgage lending to owner occupiers in February 2017 consisted of: $1.8 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.0 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $6.2 billion for refinancing of established dwellings and $11.0 billion for purchase of established dwellings. Although lending to owner occupiers has been fairly steady over recent months there has been a noticeable decline in refinance activity which has trended lower since the end of 2015. Year-on-year, finance commitments were higher for construction of dwellings (+4.0%) and purchase of established dwellings (+1.3%) while they were lower for refinancing of established dwellings (-9.9%) and purchase of new dwellings (-0.4%).
$14 $12
Billions
$10
Monthly value of owner occupier housing finance commitments by type Construction of dwellings Purchase of new dwellings Refinance of established dwellings Purchase of established dwellings
$8 $6 $4 $2 $0
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
11
Mortgage Market Lending to investors recorded its largest monthly fall in more than a year
The $12.9 billion in lending to investors in February 2017 consisted of: $1.0 billion for construction of dwellings with the remaining $11.9 billion for established housing. Both components of investment borrowing fell over the month, -13.6% and -5.2% lower respectively while the value of lending to investors was its lowest in four months. The total value of investor housing finance commitments in February 2017 was -11.3% lower than its historic peak in April 2015 and the fall may signal the market peak given the recent regulatory changes around lending to investors.
Monthly value of investor housing finance commitments by type $16 $14
Construction of dwellings
Purchase of established dwellings
Billions
$12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Owner occupier first home buyer participation in the market remains low
Data on owner occupier housing finance commitments to first home buyers shows that there were 6,596 commitments in February 2017, accounting for 13.3% of all owner occupier commitments. The number of owner occupier first home Monthly number of owner occupier first home buyer finance 20,000 buyer commitments rose in February commitments however, as a proportion of total lending to 18,000 owner occupiers it fell. 16,000 Although there has been a lift in borrowing 14,000 by first home buyers it remains lower than the long-term average and well below peak 12,000 levels. 10,000 An increasing number of first home buyers 8,000 are reportedly purchasing their first property as an investment, unfortunately 6,000 this data is not published separately and 4,000 would only be included in the investor 2,000 data. 0
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
12
Mortgage Market Average loan sizes to owner occupiers have fallen for three successive months
Average owner occupier loan size, monthly $400,000 $350,000
The average new mortgage size to owner occupiers was recorded at $353,700 in February 2017. Average mortgage sizes have now fallen for three months in a row and are 0.1% higher year-on-year. Average loan sizes are now -7.6% lower than their November 2015 peak of $382,800. Average loan sizes are falling as values continue to rise which suggests that potentially owner occupiers are purchasing more affordable housing or using larger deposits. Unfortunately the Australian Bureau of Statistics doesn’t publish a similar dataset for investors.
$300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0
The majority of owner occupiers take out a variable rate mortgage
Housing finance data reveals that in February 2017, 14.1% of mortgage commitments were for fixed-rate loans indicating most borrowers chose variable rate mortgages. At its absolute peak, approximately one quarter of mortgages were on a fixed rate. Variable rate mortgages are clearly preferred by Australian owner occupiers, again this data is not published for investors. The majority of mortgages being on a variable rate means that when the RBA or lenders change interest rates it has an almost immediate impact on household finances. Subsequently, changes to monetary policy, such as the recent increases independent of the RBA flow through to the household and are, theoretically at least, more immediate and effective at stimulating or slowing consumer expenditure.
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Monthly proportion of new mortgages on a fixed rate home loan 30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
New interest-only lending remains high but has fallen from its recent peak
According to data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), $37.922 billion in mortgage lending was for interest-only loans over the December 2016 quarter. The value of lending for interest-only purposes rose from $35.181 billion over the previous quarter however, it is now well down on the peak of $43.982 over the June 2015 quarter. Over the December 2016 quarter, interest-only mortgages accounted for 37.5% of all new mortgages which was up from 37.0% in the September 2016 quarter but well down on the peak of 45.6% in June 2015. Regulatory changes have recently been made which will limit new interest-only lending to a maximum of 30% of all new lending.
Quarterly value of new interest-only mortgages $50 $45 $40 $35 $30
Billions
$25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0
Source: CoreLogic, APRA
13
Mortgage Market Average outstanding mortgage continue increase 4.3% over the year
balances
Average outstanding mortgage balance $270,000 $260,000
The average outstanding mortgage balance was $250,000 recorded at $257,300 at the end of December 2016, $240,000 having increased by 4.3% over the year. $230,000 Those mortgages with an offset facility saw the $220,000 average size of the loan outstanding rise by 2.5% over the past year to $311,400 $210,000 Interest-only mortgages had an average outstanding $200,000 balance of $340,100 at the end of 2016 with the $190,000 average size having increased by 3.8% throughout the year. $180,000 The average outstanding balance on a reverse $170,000 mortgage has increased by 3.6% over the past year to $99,100. Source: CoreLogic, APRA Low-documentation mortgages had an average outstanding balance of $192,600 which has increased by 0.3% over the past year. Other non-standard mortgages have seen their average outstanding balances fall by -4.3% over the year to $187,500 at the end of 2016. The average outstanding mortgage balance in December 2016 was 50.5% of the national median dwelling price at that time ($510,000).
Fewer new mortgages are being written with a high loan-to-value ratio (LVR)
APRA reported that over the December 2016 quarter there was $101,043 billion in new mortgage lending. $23.199 billion worth of new mortgage lending over the quarter was for loans with an LVR of 60% or less which accounted for 24.9% of all new mortgage lending for the quarter. Loans with an LVR of between 60% and 80% accounted for 52.7% of all new lending over the quarter at $53.230 billion. More than three-quarters (77.6%) of all new mortgage lending over the quarter had an LVR of less than 80%. 14.5% of lending over the quarter was for loans with an LVR of between 80% and 90%, at a total of $14.622 billion. Just $7.992 billion was lent for mortgages with an LVR of more than 90% over the December 2016 quarter which accounted for a record low 7.9% of new lending. The value of lending for loans with an LVR of more than 90% has fallen by -6.7% over the year. The data highlights that a more conservative approach is being taken by lenders and borrowers to new mortgages with a smaller deposit. Mortgages with LVRs above 80% also typically incur lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) and a reduction in higher LVR lending means a reduced demand for this product.
Proportion of total new mortgage lending by loan to valuation ratio band 60% Less than 60%
60% to 80%
80% to 90%
Greater than 90%
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Source: CoreLogic, APRA
14
Mortgage Market There is in excess of $1.6 trillion in outstanding mortgage debt
The total value of outstanding mortgage credit according to the RBA was $1.646 trillion in February 2017. Housing credit advanced by 0.6% in February 2017 with investor credit (0.6%) advancing at a more rapid pace than credit to owner occupiers (0.5%) however, the monthly rate of credit expansion to investors has slowed over the past two months. Over the 12 months to February 2017, housing credit has advanced by 6.4% with owner occupier credit increasing by 6.2% and investor credit up by 6.7%. Investor housing credit has increased over the past year, and is now rising at its fastest annual pace since February 2016 however, it is well below its recent peak growth rate of 10.8% in May 2015. After growing at an annual pace of 7.7% in May 2016, growth in owner occupier housing credit has slowed markedly.
Annual change in total housing credit, National 35% Owner occupier
Investor
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Source: CoreLogic, RBA
Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth
Number of dwellings
Outstanding mortgage debt
Household wealth held in housing
9.8 million
$1.65 trillion
52.2%
Source: CoreLogic, ABS, RBA, ASX
15
Total sales p.a.
Gross value of sales p.a.
476,582
$275.5 billion
Quarterly Review | March 2017
Housing Supply Dwelling approvals are much lower than recent peak levels
There were 18,995 dwellings approved for construction nationally in February 2017. Approvals increased by 8.3% in February 2017 however, they are -4.9% lower than they were a year earlier and are -11.9% lower than their historic peak in October 2015. There were 9,530 houses and 9,466 units approved for construction in February 2017. House approvals were 5.7% higher over the month and have declined by -4.4% year-on-year. Unit approvals increased by 11.0% in February 2017, however they were still -5.4% lower than in February 2016. The chart below highlights that unit approvals tend to be much more volatile than houses. Although approvals have fallen significantly from their peak, the approved pipeline of supply remains at elevated levels. With inner city unit markets facing a large number of high rise settlements over the coming years, there is likely to be a heighted level of risk in key inner city markets for at least the next 24 months. 14,000
Monthly dwelling approvals, National Houses
Units
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Dwelling commencements were slightly higher over the December 2016 quarter but are expected to decline from here
There were 57,043 dwellings commenced over the December 2016 quarter which was 0.3% higher over the quarter and 0.8% higher over the year. There were 28,690 new houses commenced over the quarter which was -3.4% lower than the previous quarter and 2.5% higher than a year earlier. New unit commencements increased by 3.9% over the quarter to 27,887 however, they were slightly lower (-0.1%) compared to the same quarter in 2015. With dwelling approvals having fallen substantially since the end of 2016 it is anticipated that over the coming quarters there will be fewer commencements taking place however, commencements are still expected to be elevated compared to historical average levels.
Quarterly dwelling commencements, National 40,000 Houses
Units
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
17
Housing Supply For the first time on record, more units were completed than houses over the December 2016 quarter
There were 57,608 dwelling completions over the December 2016 quarter which was 12.8% higher over the quarter and it eclipsed previous record highs. The completions consisted of 28,102 new houses and 28,527 new unit completions throughout the quarter. New house completions were 0.7% higher over the quarter but 6.2% lower year-on-year. Unit completions increased by 26.1% over the quarter and were 63.7% higher than over the same quarter in 2015. The substantial number of dwellings under construction means that completions are likely to remain elevated over the coming quarters, longer-term we may see a fall in completions given that commencements are expected to decline from their current levels.
Quarterly dwelling completions, National 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Houses
Units
0
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
The volume of stock under construction is close to a record-high
There were 219,384 dwellings under construction at the end of December 2016 consisting of: 64,332 new houses, 152,635 new units and 2,418 non-new dwellings. The number of new houses under construction fell slightly over the quarter, down -2.2%. The number of new units under construction was slightly lower than its historical high of 155,737 at the end of the September 2016 quarter but they remain extremely elevated in a historical context. The chart below highlights the magnitude of the ramp-up of stock under construction over recent years with units well above historical averages. Dwelling commencements are trending lower but there remains a substantial volume of stock under construction which will continue to support completions over the coming quarters. Across the individual states the data shows that while the number of dwellings under construction has started to fall, noticeably so in Vic and Qld, in NSW the number of units under construction has continued to climb.
Quarterly number of dwellings under construction, National 180,000 160,000
Houses
Units
140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Dec-86
Dec-91
Dec-96
Dec-01
Dec-06
Dec-11
Dec-16
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
18
Housing Supply Although the number fell over the quarter there remains a heightened number of dwellings approved for construction which haven’t commenced
At the end of December 2016, 42,937 dwellings were approved but yet to commence construction which was down from 42,937 the previous quarter. This figure consisted of 9,814 new houses awaiting commencement and 29,044 new units awaiting to be commenced. The number of houses not yet commenced has trended higher over the past three quarters while the number of units awaiting commencement fell from an historic high in the September 2016 quarter. The heightened volume of stock awaiting commencement along with the recent decline in approvals, for units in particular, suggests that unit projects are becoming more difficult to commence which is probably linked to developer’s ability to achieve sufficient presales to commence construction.
35,000
Quarterly number of dwellings approved for construction but not commenced, National Houses
Units
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
19
Demographic Overview The rate of national population growth has started to trend higher
It was estimated that at the end of June 2016, the national population was 24,220,192 persons. The population increased by 1.5% over the 12 months to September 2016. The annual rate of population growth has rebounded to its highest level since September 2014.
2.5%
Annual change in national population
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Net overseas migration is starting to climb which is driving the uplift in the rate of population growth
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Population growth nationally is comprised of net overseas migration as well as the natural increase in the population (births minus deaths). State-based migration also includes net interstate migration which cancels out at a national level. Net overseas migration was recorded at 193,223 persons over the 12 months to September 2016 which was 8.9% higher than at the same time in 2015 and at its highest level since March 2014. Natural increase rose by 5.1% over the year and was recorded at 155,472 persons. The national rate of annual population growth peaked at 2.2% in December 2008 when the population increased by 459,504 persons over the quarter, of which net overseas migration was recorded at 315,687 persons. Although the rate of population and overseas migration has slowed relative to the 2008 peak, it remains elevated and is much higher than in most other developed countries.
Components of annual population change, National 350,000 300,000
Natural increase
Net overseas migration
250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Victoria remains the population growth powerhouse of the nation
20
New South Wales’ population increased by 1.4% over the 12 months to September 2016 with the total population increasing by 109,605, up 2.9% from its increase of 106,494 persons a year earlier. The population of Victoria increased by a record-high 127,498 persons over the past year which was 18.3% higher than the population increase a year earlier. The total population has increased by 2.1% over the past year. Queensland’s population increased by 67,699 persons over the past year which was 18.4% higher than the population growth a year earlier and its greatest annual increase since June 2014. The total population of Queensland increased by 1.4% over the year. An increase of 9,438 persons over the 12 months to September 2016 resulted in a 0.6% increase in South Australia’s population. The 9,438 person increase in population over the year was -26.4% lower than the increase over the previous year. Western Australia’s population increased by 25,242 persons or 1.0% over the past year which was the state’s slowest rate of growth on record and the smallest population increase since June 2003.
Demographic Overview
Change in population over the 12 months to September 2016
Tasmania’s population increased by 2,593 persons or 0.5% over the past year which was the greatest increase in population for the state since June 2011. Northern Territory’s population increased by 0.3% or 812 persons over the 12 months to March 2016. In the Australian Capital Territory, the rate of population growth was recorded at 1.5% over the past year resulting in an increase in population of 5,778 persons.
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
More than three quarters of net overseas migration has been into NSW or Vic
40,000
20,000 Most overseas migrants are choosing to settle in either NSW or Vic with net overseas migration over 0 the past year recorded at 76,529 persons in NSW NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT and 68,613 persons in Vic. Source: CoreLogic, ABS NSW accounted for 39.6% of net overseas migration nationally and Vic accounted for 35.5%. With net overseas migration of 76,529 persons over the past year, New South Wales recorded its greatest volume of net overseas migrants since September 2009 with net overseas migration 10.2% higher over the past year. The net overseas migration of 68,613 persons into Victoria over the past year was the greatest number since December 2009 and an increase of 12.8% on the previous year. Queensland’s net overseas migration was recorded at 21,469 persons over the past year which was 19.0% higher than the number of overseas migrants at the same time a year earlier. Over the past year there were 9,279 net overseas migrants to South Australia which was -12.0% fewer than the number a year earlier. Western Australia has seen a significant decline in net overseas migration with just 13,315 persons over the year, the fewest since September 2000 and -4.1% lower over the past year. Net overseas migration for Tasmania was recorded at 1,265 persons which was 9.2% higher than a year earlier. The 756 net overseas migrants to the Northern Territory over the past year was -38.1% lower than the number over the previous year. The Australian Capital Territory had net overseas migration of 1,607 persons over the past year, its lowest level since June 2011.
Annual number of net overseas migrants by states and territories 120,000 NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
WA
Tas
NT
ACT
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
21
Demographic Overview Net interstate migration into Victoria continues to break previous record highs
The net outflow of New South Wales residents to other states and territories was recorded at 11,733 persons over the past year, its greatest decline since September 2013 with the outflow gathering pace. Victoria recorded a net gain from interstate migration of 17,185 persons which is the greatest gain of all states and territories and its greatest gain on record as well as the net inflow being 53.6% higher than a year earlier. Net interstate migration to Queensland was recorded at 12,996 persons over the past year, its greatest increase since June 2009 and 88.2% higher than over the previous year. South Australia recorded a loss of 6,484 persons over the past year due to net interstate migration which was its largest outflow since March 1996 and much greater than the 4,125 person outflow a year earlier.. After annual net interstate migration peaked at 11,425 persons in September 2012, Western Australia has recorded a loss of 9,198 residents over the past year, its largest loss on record. Net interstate migration to Tasmania saw a net reduction of 8 residents over the past year, which reversed the annual gains over the previous two quarters. The net loss of 2,804 residents from the Northern Territory over the past year was actually slightly lower than the outflow of 3,019 residents at the same time in 2015. The Australian Capital Territory has recorded a net inflow of residents to other parts of the country of 76 persons, its strongest increase since the 12 months to September 2012.
Annual number of net interstate migrants by states and territories 60,000
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
WA
Tas
NT
ACT
40,000 20,000 0 -20,000 -40,000 -60,000
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
22
Household Finances Mortgage rates have been lifted independently of the RBA over recent months
Official interest rates set by the RBA are currently recorded at 1.5%. For an owner occupier, mortgage rates are currently recorded at: 5.3% for a standard variable mortgage, 4.55% for a discounted variable mortgage and 4.25% for a three year fixed rate. For investors, current mortgage rates are: 5.7% for a standard variable mortgage, 4.95% for a discounted variable mortgage and 4.45% for a three year fixed mortgage. Mortgage premiums for investors have only been in place for a year and a half and were introduced in response to the heightened level of purchasing by this market segment. Many lenders have made further increases to both investor and owner occupier mortgage rates recently. Although mortgage rates have increased a little, they remain at close to historic low levels. 15%
Mortgage rates for owner occupiers over time Standard variable
Discounted variable
3 year fixed
13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3%
Source: CoreLogic, RBA
Households are more indebted than they have ever been before
The national ratio of household debt to disposable income was recorded at 188.7% in December 2016, up from 183.0% a year earlier. The 186.9% ratio of household debt to disposable income is largely made up of housing debt which has a record-high ratio of 133.8% up from 129.3% a year earlier. Of the 133.8% ratio of household debt to disposable income, 100.2% of the 133.8% is owner occupier debt (also a record-high) leaving 33.7% to investors. Although household and housing debt is at historic high levels, the ratio of total interest payments to disposable income sits at 8.5% indicating that lower interest rates have improved serviceability which is at levels not seen since early 2003. The high level of housing and household debt makes household much more sensitive to any changes in mortgage rates.
200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Ratio of household and housing debt to disposable income, National Household
Housing
Source: CoreLogic, RBA
23
Household Finances While housing and household debt are at record highs, so too is the ratio of household and housing assets to disposable incomes
While housing and household debt is at record highs, the ratio of household assets to disposable income is recorded at 910.6% and the ratio of housing assets to disposable income is 500.4%. A year earlier these ratios were recorded at 868.4% for household assets and 476.6% for housing assets. It is undeniable that households are heavily indebted, largely due to housing however, the macro view is that these assets have a significantly higher value than the debt held against them. Of course the macro view does not show what is occurring in individual properties or locations, households that have recently taken out large debt (such as a mortgage) and those who own homes where values have fallen over recent years are likely to be in a much weaker position than these figures indicate.
1000% 900%
Ratio of household and housing assets to disposable income Household
Housing
800% 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0%
Source: CoreLogic, RBA
Wages continue to rise at a historically low rate
The ABS wage price index showed that throughout 2016, wages increased by 1.9% an historic low increase. Separating the data into private and public sector wages shows that private sector wages increased by 1.8% over the year and private sector wages were 2.3%. The ABS has been producing this dataset since late 1997 and the growth in wages for both the private and public sector is at historically low levels. Lower wages growth impacts on a household’s ability and willingness to spend more, particularly on items such as rent and other non-essential spending. The low rate of growth in wages appears to not be having any impact on the growth in dwelling values.
6%
Annual change in wage price index, public and private sector, National Private sector
Public sector
5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
24
National Accounts Following a decline in GDP over the September 2016 quarter, GDP increased 1.1% over the December 2016 quarter
Australia’s economy grew by 1.1% in December 2016 to be 2.4% higher over the 2016 calendar year. On a per capita basis, GDP increased by 0.7% over the quarter however, growth was much lower than headline GDP over the year, increasing by 0.9%. Nominal (or inflation adjusted) GDP rose 3.0% over the December 2016 quarter to be 6.1% higher over the year. The total output of the national economy over the 12 months to September 2016 was $1.677 trillion. Australia has now seen the longest period without a recession on record (defined as consecutive quarters of GDP decline) for a developed country eclipsing Netherlands previous record.
Quarterly and annual change in GDP 10%
Quarterly
Annual
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Private consumption and exports drove GDP growth over the final quarter of 2016
Over the December 2016 quarter, the percentage point contributions to GDP growth were: 0.0% from government expenditure. +0.5% from household expenditure, +0.3% from private capital formation, +0.3% from public capital formation, -0.2% from inventories, +0.5% from exports and -0.3% from imports. Looking at the annual change in the value of these components: government expenditure rose 3.2%, household expenditure increased 2.6%, private capital formation fell -2.6%, public capital formation rose 11.9%, exports increased by 8.9% while imports increased by 3.3%.
Contributions to quarterly change in GDP, December 2016 quarter 0.6% 0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4% 0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
0.0% -0.1% -0.2%
-0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% Private Public consumption consumption
Private Public capital Investories capital formation formation
Exports
Imports Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Household savings ratio, National 18%
The rate of household savings has continued to trend lower
According to data in the National Accounts, the household savings ratio was recorded at 5.2% over the December 2016 quarter. This was the ratio’s lowest level since it was recorded at 3.7% in September 2008. The household savings ratio has now been below 10% for 18 consecutive quarters. Given that interest rates, are so low, as are riskfree returns, it is little surprise to see that households are saving less and are proving to be more inclined to borrow.
16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Dec-81
Dec-86
Dec-91
Dec-96
Dec-01
Dec-06
Dec-11
Dec-16
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
25
Inflation Headline inflation has lifted a little but underlying inflation remains below the RBA’s target range
Although official interest rates remain at their lowest levels since the 1960s, inflation remains stubbornly low. Headline inflation increased by 0.5% over the March 2017 quarter taking it 2.1% higher over the 12 months to March 2017. Headline inflation is now back within the RBA’s target range for the first time in ten quarters. The RBAs preferred measures of underlying inflation; the trimmed mean and weighted median each increased by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively over the December 2016 quarter. Each of the measures of underlying inflation remain below the RBAs target range and were recorded at 1.9% and 1.7% at the end of the first quarter of this year.
Annual inflation, National
10%
All groups
Avg of trimmed mean and weighted median
8% 6% 4% 2%
RBA's target range
0% -2%
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Costs associated with alcohol and tobacco and health and transportation are escalating at the fastest rate
Inflation is being dragged lower by substantial annual declines in the cost of communication (-4.8%) along with more moderate falls in recreation and culture (-0.2%) and furnishings, household equipment and services (-0.1%). The components of CPI that have recorded the greatest increases over 2016 were: alcohol and tobacco (6.1%), health (3.8%) and transport (3.8%). Housing has the largest weighting of any of these components and over the year housing costs rose by 2.5%. Across the remaining sub-groups the annual increases have been recorded at: 3.3% for education, 2.7% for insurance and financial services, 1.8% for food and non-alcoholic beverages and 0.3% for clothing and footwear.
Annual change in the components of CPI, March 2017 Alcohol and Tobacco Health Transport Education Insurance and Financial Services Housing All Groups Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages Clothing and Footwear Furnishings, Household Equipment and Services Recreation and Culture Communication-4.8% -6%
6.1% 3.8% 3.8% 3.3% 2.7% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 0.3% -0.1% -0.2% -4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
26
Inflation Water and sewerage costs continue to fall while all other housing costs continue to rise
The housing component of CPI has the greatest weighting, reflecting the fact that housing costs tend to comprise the greatest proportion of household budgets. The only housing expenditure class to record a fall over the past year was water and sewerage, down -1.8%. Costs associated with: rents (+0.6%) and maintenance and repair of the dwelling (+2.0%) also rose at a slower pace than the broader housing sub-group. The rental component of housing CPI is increasing at its slowest annual pace since September 1993 reflecting quite weak upwards price pressures on rents. Electricity (+7.5%) and utilities costs (+4.3%) recorded the greatest increases over the past year. Across the remaining expenditure classes, the annual increases were recorded at: 4.0% for property rates and charges, 2.8% for other housing, 2.8% for new dwelling purchases by owner occupiers and 2.7% for gas and other household fuels.
Annual change in components of housing CPI, March 2017 Electricity
7.5%
Utilities
4.3%
Property Rates and Charges
4.0%
Other Housing
2.8%
New Dwelling Purchase by Owner Occupiers
2.8%
Gas and Other Household Fuels
2.7%
Housing
2.5%
Maintenance and Repair of the Dwelling
2.0%
Rents Water and Sewerage -4%
0.6% -1.8% -2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Source: CoreLogic, ABS
Consumer Sentiment
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index was recorded at 99.0 points in April 2017. When consumer sentiment is above 100 points it indicates that consumers are more optimistic than pessimistic. Although sentiment has been at a fairly neutral setting lately, it has been slightly more pessimistic than optimistic for five successive months. The components of the Index indicate respondents are still more pessimistic about their family finances over the past year, economic conditions over the next year and over the next five years. The optimistic components of the Index are around family finances over the next year and whether it is a good time to buy a major household item. 140
Monthly consumer sentiment, National
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Source: CoreLogic, Westpac-Melbourne Institute
27
Conclusion Throughout 2015 and early 2016 the rate of value growth across the housing market was slowing as the availability of credit to investors was being rationed. Since around the middle of 2016, investors have become much more able to access credit and the Reserve Bank cut interest rates two times by a total of 50 basis points which has contributed to a rebound in value growth. Combined capital city dwelling values have now increased at their fastest annual rate since May 2010 with values in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra rising at their fastest rates in a number of years. Dwelling values have been rising at a rate well above household income growth which has made it more difficult for those that don’t already own a home to save a big enough deposit to purchase. Subsequently, first home buyer participation at the moment is hovering around historic low levels. The banking regulator has recently announced a new round of macroprudential measures which aren’t aimed at slowing the growth in dwelling values; rather, the new policies are focused on ensuring sound lending policies are maintained. The result of these changes will be a reduced availability of interest-only mortgages and potentially, as we have already seen, higher mortgage rates, particularly to investors. This may over time see the rate of dwelling value growth start to slow. For Sydney and Melbourne in particular, favourable economic and demographic trends are a major driving force behind the ongoing strong increases in dwelling values. These cities have also seen under-building of new housing in recent years as well as insufficient infrastructure investment. These factors along with the ongoing decline in the number of properties available for sale continues to result in high levels of housing demand and relatively low levels of available supply. The Hobart and Canberra markets have each seen an acceleration in the rate of value growth over the past year. Canberra is seeing an improving economy along with a relatively low volume of stock available for sale which is creating upwards pressure on values. Hobart’s tourism sector is booming however, population growth and migration to Tasmania is not particularly strong (although trending higher). Housing in Hobart is substantially more affordable than in all other capital cities and this is likely to be one of the key drivers of the recent growth in values along with very little new housing supply and a lack of stock being listed for sale. Dwelling values in Brisbane and Adelaide have recorded only moderate increases in values over the past year. The weaker economic performances of these two cities and the lower levels of migration have certainly curtailed growth. For Brisbane, interstate migration to Queensland has lifted over recent quarters and this could potentially lead to a moderate lift in value growth. In Adelaide it looks as if the moderate rises in values are set to continue in 2017. Perth and Darwin have continued to experience declines in dwelling values over the past year. Each of these cities continue to be hampered by a high volume of stock available for sale and relatively few buyers. Population growth has slowed dramatically across Western Australia and Northern Territory and whereas during the mining boom they were attracting people from other parts of the country they are now just as quickly leaving.
28 Quarterly Review | March 2017
Conclusion It is reasonable to expect values to fall further in each of these cities throughout 2017 however, the rate of decline may actually slow a little later in the year if fewer home are put up for sale. Although our general forecast is that values will continue to rise over the coming year albeit at probably a slower rate, it doesn’t mean that there aren’t potential headwinds for the market. The record-high pipeline of housing stock currently under construction, the majority of which are units, will be completed over the coming years. There is already evidence suggesting that in certain areas and markets settlements are taking longer and valuations are coming in below or at the purchase price. Recent data also shows that approvals and commencements are falling and the number of dwellings approved but not yet commenced remains at a high level. There will still be many new properties built because so many are currently under construction however, it is clear that settlement of these projects is likely to become increasingly challenging. In fact, value growth data already shows that in many cities the value of houses over the past year has increased at a much faster pace than that of units. With a relatively high proportion of off-the-plan unit valuations coming in below the original contract price in certain cities, if the decline is less than or similar to the deposit amount it is unlikely buyers would walk away. If the differential between contract price and completion valuation grows we may see an increasing number of buyers unable or unwilling to settle their contract. Overall we expect dwelling values to continue to rise over the coming year, albeit that pace of growth is likely to slow. As we have seen over previous cycles, housing market conditions will continue to vary significantly from region to region and across housing types. There is an expectation of further value rises however, there are clearly some potential risks in the market, most of this risk is coming within the unit market. We are expecting the unit market to underperform relative to detached houses and over the coming year the underperformance of units may potentially increase further.
29 Quarterly Review | March 2017
About CoreLogic CoreLogic Australia is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), which is the largest property data and analytics company in the world. CoreLogic provides property information, analytics and services across Australia, New Zealand and Asia, and recently expanded its service offering through the purchase of project activity and building cost information provider Cordell. With Australia’s most comprehensive property databases, the company’s combined data offering is derived from public, contributory and proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed coverage of property and other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. With over 20,000 customers and 150,000 end users, CoreLogic is the leading provider of property data, analytics and related services to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, building services, insurance, developers, wealth management and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. CoreLogic employs over 650 people across Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call 1300 734 318 or visit www.corelogic.com.au
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30 Quarterly Review | March 2017
Disclaimers In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information. Queensland Data Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2015. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws South Australian Data This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data. New South Wales Data Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI. Victorian Data The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian Data Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2015) trading as Landgate. Australian Capital Territory Data The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601. Tasmanian Data This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents: a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data. Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au\
31 Quarterly Review | March 2017
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