Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018
Contents About CoreLogic
4
CoreLogic Data and Analytics ....................................................................................................................................................................
4
Legal Disclaimer ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
4
Macro Economic and Demographic Indicators
6
New Zealand Asset Classes .........................................................................................................................................................................
7
New Zealand Population ...............................................................................................................................................................................
8
Migration .............................................................................................................................................................................................................
9
Regional Building Consents .........................................................................................................................................................................
10
Population Growth Compared to Building Consents ........................................................................................................................
10
Consumer Confidence ...................................................................................................................................................................................
11
Employment .......................................................................................................................................................................................................
12
Interest Rates ....................................................................................................................................................................................................
13
Housing Overview
14
Nationwide Values ...........................................................................................................................................................................................
15
Sales Volumes ...................................................................................................................................................................................................
16
Rent .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................
17
Market Activity ..................................................................................................................................................................................................
18
Valuations Completed.....................................................................................................................................................................................
19
Listings .................................................................................................................................................................................................................
20
Buyer Classification .........................................................................................................................................................................................
22
House Price Index ............................................................................................................................................................................................
23
Main Cities Housing Market Indicators
26
Auckland Market Activity .............................................................................................................................................................................
28
Auckland Values ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
29
Auckland Suburb Value Change ................................................................................................................................................................
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Current Auckland Suburb Values ..............................................................................................................................................................
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Hamilton Market Activity ..............................................................................................................................................................................
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Hamilton Values ................................................................................................................................................................................................
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Tauranga Market Activity ..............................................................................................................................................................................
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Tauranga Values ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
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Wellington Market Activity ...........................................................................................................................................................................
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Wellington Values ............................................................................................................................................................................................
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Christchurch Market Activity .......................................................................................................................................................................
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Christchurch Values ........................................................................................................................................................................................
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Dunedin Market Activity ................................................................................................................................................................................
42
Dunedin Values .................................................................................................................................................................................................
43
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 2 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in the United States, Australia and New Zealand. CoreLogic helps clients identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk, by providing clients with innovative, technology-based services and access to rich data and analytics.
Whilst all reasonable effort is made to ensure the information in this publication is current, CoreLogic does not warrant the accuracy, currency or completeness of the data and commentary contained in this publication and to the full extent not prohibited by law excludes all loss or damage arising in connection with the data and commentary contained in this publication.
Contact Call us 0800 355 355 Wellington office Level 2, 275 Cuba Street PO Box 4072 Wellington 6140
Auckland office Level 5 41 Shortland Street Auckland 1010
Email: reports@corelogic.co.nz
www.corelogic.co.nz
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 3 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
Macro Economic and Demographic Indicators
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 4 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
New Zealand Asset Classes Residential Real Estate
$1.08 trillion ($249 billion in home loans) Commercial/Industrial Real Estate
$201 billion NZ Listed Stocks
$127 billion NZ Super and KiwiSaver
$79 billion The value of residential property continues to grow beyond one trillion dollars, outperforming the value of other asset classes. Residential mortgages secured against 23% of this value. After a solid rise in March, the past month or so has seen the NZX edge downwards. In mid-April the NZX 50 index stood at around 3,800, down from 3,900 a month earlier.
*Source: CoreLogic NZ, Reserve Bank of NZ, NZX, NZ Superfund, Financial Markets Authority
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 5 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
New Zealand Population Quarterly Change in National Population Population growth slowed further in Q4 2017, with the moving average continuing to trend down. Almost three-quarters of population growth is due to net migration, which was 70,000 for the year to the end of December 2017. This represents a further fall from the peak of 72,200 to the end of June 2017. After hitting a 20 year low, natural population growth rebounded in Q4 2017, but the overall trend is flat.
Population Change Composition
Annual Change in Population
Source: Statistics New Zealand CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 6 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
Migration Long Term Migration In the 12 months to February, total net migration into New Zealand was 68,943. That total has eased from the peak of more than 72,000 in mid-2017, but the net migration is still running at historically high levels and has not dipped to the extent that might have been expected when Labour and NZ First originally came to power. Indeed, Stats NZ’s underlying ‘trend’ measure of net migration is holding up pretty well, and this is not a bad thing when you consider the labour shortages – especially for skilled workers – currently faced by the NZ economy.
Monthly Net Migration Between New Zealand and Australia
A key thing to watch for in the migration figures over the coming months is the net position with Australia. Historically, the Australian net balance has been the swing factor for overall migration to NZ, and when it changes direction it can change very quickly. At least for now, however, subdued wage growth in Australia will be capping its attractiveness for foreign migrants and Kiwis potentially considering making a move.
Net Gain Last Year
% Change
TOTAL ALL AREAS
70,016
-0.8%
Auckland Region
36,152
6.6%
Hamilton City
1,875
12.3%
Tauranga City
1,052
0.5%
Wellington
3,593
10.9%
Christchurch City
5,403
-4.0%
Dunedin City
1,024
23.7%
Main Urban Area (Other)
5,239
-5.9%
Rural Centres
4,798
8.6%
Not applicable/Not stated
10,880
-23.8%
Source: Statistics New Zealand CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 7 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Regional Building Consents New Dwelling Consents Trend The number of new residential building consents across NZ remains on a firm upwards trend. It rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to March 2018 (on Stats NZ’s “trend” measure, which strips out seasonality and random movements) to a level of more than 31,100. Auckland is driving the increase in the national total. The rise in residential consents in our biggest city in the year to March was 13.9%, and the annual running total of almost 11,600 accounted for 37% of the national figure. Even so, the shortfall of housing that has accumulated will take several years to whittle away, especially given that the construction industry is already facing labour and capacity shortages. Meanwhile, issuance of new dwelling consents around other parts of the country is easing, especially in Waikato and Canterbury. That will hamper the pace of economic growth in those regions, but on the plus side it may free up some resources for increased construction in Auckland.
Population Growth Compared to Building Consents Quarterly Population Change and Building Consents Nationwide With population growth slowing and building consents continuing to increase, the gap between the two is reducing. The gap is calculated by assuming 80% of dwellings consented translate into an actual increase in the number of dwellings (which may be generous given our results of consent to stock change analysis), and that each of those dwellings will house the current average number of people (2.7 people per dwelling). For example, over the year to December 2017 there were 31,127 dwellings consented (able to house 67,234 people), and an increase in population of 97,000, leaving a difference of almost 30,000 too many people for dwellings.
Source: Statistics New Zealand CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 8 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Consumer Confidence ANZ-Roy Morgan Confidence Consumer Consumer confidence held onto its recent gains in March. The headline index was all but unchanged at 128.0, only lifting a small amount from February’s 127.7. Low unemployment, low interest rates, and decent house price gains all seem to be lifting consumers’ spirits. ANZ noted in the release of March’s survey that consumers in Wellington are the most optimistic, while Canterbury saw a bounce into second place. Auckland slipped below Canterbury, and it would seem that the sluggish housing market in our biggest city may be dampening consumer sentiment. The gap has closed in recent months, but for now consumer confidence in NZ is higher than Australia.
Source: ANZ NZ, Roy Morgan
Trans-Tasman Consumer Confidence Index
Source: Westpac NZ, McDermott Miller
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 9 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Employment Annual Change in Employment, Full Time and Part Time The rate of part-time employment lifted however the rate of growth in full-time employment eased off for the fourth quarter in a row (albeit only marginally last quarter). The total number of people actually employed has continued to rise. The labour force participation rate eased slightly to 71.0% in Q4 2017 after peaking in Q3 2017 at 71.1% and the unemployment rate dropped further to 4.5% - the lowest since 2008.
Labour Force Participation Rate
For an employment lead significant correction in the housing market to occur, there would have to be a turnaround in employment with people unable to pay mortgages or rent.
Unemployment Rate
Source: Statistics New Zealand CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 10 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
Interest Rates Mortgage Interest Rates - % Mortgage interest rates have stayed flat and low in recent weeks, with the retail banks competing strongly for the best borrowers. Alongside NZ’s migration balance with Australia and investors’ listings behaviour, interest rates are one of three key factors we will be watching closely for the rest of 2018 and into 2019. This is because almost 90% of NZ’s fixed-rate mortgages (which are about 80% of all mortgages) roll over within a two-year horizon.
Projected Official Cash Rate - %
On that front, the latest CPI inflation data was subdued (1.1% annual) and came as no surprise to the markets. The prospect of no change in the OCR until at least next year remains likely, although we will get further insight on this at the next Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement (and rates review) on 10th May.
Average Two Year Fixed Rates - %
Sources: Reserve Bank of New Zealand and interest.co.nz CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 11 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Housing Overview
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Nationwide Values Average Value of Housing Stock - New Zealand Nationwide value growth held steady in March, with the three-month increase stable at 1.2%. However, the annual growth rate increased from 6.5% in February to 7.3% in March. That was the strongest annual increase since 8.1% in June last year. The revival in the pace of property value growth has been underpinned by the strong labour market and continued low interest rates.
Annual and Quarterly Change in Value
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Sales Volumes Nationwide Sales Volumes Nationwide sales volumes experienced their usual seasonal increase from February to March, as the property market got back into full swing after the holiday period. Volumes were still down by almost 2% year-on-year, but the pace of decline has slowed dramatically and therefore we may now be seeing signs that a floor for the number of sales is within sight.
Nationwide Annual Change in Sales Volumes
Indeed, some parts of the country may have already passed their trough for sales. Taking the last three months combined, sales are higher than a year ago in Hamilton, Christchurch and Dunedin. Auckland is still struggling, with plenty of listings meaning that buyers don’t have to rush to make a purchase.
Regional Sales Volumes Year-on-Year
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Rent Nationwide Annual Change in Value and Rent The level of rents across the country was unchanged from February to March, at $410 per week. Using a smoothed threemonth annual growth rate, the increase from a year ago was 4.7%, slightly slower than February’s figure of 4.8%. Gross rental yields edged down a little in March, from 3.2% to 3.1%. However, that was only a small dip and more generally the flat picture continued – yields have either been 3.1% or 3.2% every month since July 2016. Wellington continues to lead the main centres in terms of rental growth, up by 8.2% year on year. The other North Island main centres are also recording solid gains, while rents in Christchurch and Dunedin have only dipped by small amounts over the past year.
Gross Rental Yield - Nationwide
Median Weekly Rent
Annual Change in Rent
Gross Yield
Auckland
$512
2.9%
2.1%
Hamilton
$362
3.5%
3.4%
Tauranga
$433
6.0%
3.2%
Wellington
$483
8.2%
3.3%
Christchurch
$358
-0.6%
3.8%
Dunedin
$324
-0.1%
4.2% Sources: CoreLogic NZ and MBIE
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Market Activity Market Activity Index Valuations activity remains pretty low across the board, with Auckland, Dunedin and Hamilton showing the largest falls from a year ago. Tauranga has held up the best of the main centres, but even there the number of valuations has dropped by 13% from a year ago.
Latest 3 Weeks Year-on-Year
Percentage change
Auckland
-28%
Hamilton City
-20%
Tauranga City
-13%
Wellington Region
-18%
Christchurch City
-14%
Dunedin City
-24%
This market activity is based on the number of automated valuations run by bank staff using our systems each week. This number of valuations correlates very closely to the number of sales that will subsequently occur so this is an extremely timely measure of buyer demand, more than any measure of sales. We can also track across any geographic area.
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 16 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
Valuations completed Market Activity Year-on-Year This map shows activity in the latest three weeks compared to the same three weeks last year. The heatmap for NZ as a whole illustrates the pretty broad-based nature of the valuations activity slowdown, with Auckland’s decline clear to see. Only parts of the Bay of Plenty, Taranaki and Manawatu are showing many signs of life.
*Size of bubble represents the level of activity for the period 26 March – 15 April 2018 CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 17 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Listings New Listings New listings have eased off over the past 3-4 weeks in line with normal seasonality, but for the country as a whole they remain 5% higher than a year ago. Only Wellington and Canterbury have seen recent new listings activity come in lower than a year earlier. Otago’s new listings have shot up, perhaps with some vendors looking to cash in on recent strength in values.
New Listings
Average last 3 weeks
1 month change
1 year change
New Zealand
2,035
-14%
5%
Auckland
725
0%
7%
Waikato
207
-17%
9%
Bay of Plenty
169
-9%
13%
Wellington
154
-30%
-10%
Canterbury
276
-19%
-9%
Otago
90
-25%
21%
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 18 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Total Listings Total listings across New Zealand are 8% higher than a year ago, driven up by Waikato and Auckland. The upwards price pressures in Wellington are easy to put into context when you see that total listings in the capital are low and have not changed over the past year.
Total Listings
Latest week
1 month change
1 year change
New Zealand
30,605
0%
8%
Auckland
10,001
1%
15%
Waikato
3,263
1%
22%
Bay Of Plenty
2,172
1%
9%
Wellington
1,562
-5%
0%
Canterbury
4,944
1%
7%
1,117
0%
11%
Otago
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Buyer Classification Buyer Classification - New Zealand First home buyers have held their ground in the past few months and account for a healthy 22% of sales across the country. Access to Kiwisaver funds for a deposit will have been a factor here, as is an apparent willingness to sacrifice home quality/location to take that first step on the ladder, especially in Auckland. Movers continue to bide their time, so this leaves multiple property owners as the key buyer type of interest. After easing off in the wake of LVR restrictions, they have returned their share of the market to 37%. To date, extra regulations around the provision of rental property do not appear to be deterring investors.
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House Price Index Average Dwelling Value Values showed a bit more strength in March, with Dunedin, Wellington and Hamilton recording solid increases. Auckland, Tauranga and Christchurch were less buoyant, but these main centres still showed broad stability in property values in March. Solid three-month gains were seen in Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Dunedin. The latter two main centres have also recorded the largest annual gains of 8% and 9% respectively.
March 2018 Current Value
3 months
12 months
Since 2007 peak
$677,618
1.2%
7%
64%
$1,055,992
0.4%
1%
93%
Hamilton
$555,549
2.2%
4%
54%
Tauranga
$706,922
1.9%
5%
47%
New Zealand Auckland
Wellington
$644,567
2.6%
8%
41%
Christchurch
$494,117
0.1%
-1%
30%
Dunedin
$398,120
1.8%
9%
39%
Source: CoreLogic NZ QV Monthly House Price Index
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 21 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
House Price Index Annual Value Change Focusing on the past 12 months, value changes have been strongest in parts of the central and lower North Island. Hawke’s Bay stands out as an area of particular strength. By contrast, the sluggishness of Canterbury, Auckland and even into parts of Waikato is also clear to see on this national map.
*Size of bubble represents the number of properties in the Territorial Authority CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 22 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Three Month Value Change Looking at a more recent three month change in values, some hotspots have started to emerge in the Bay of Plenty, Manawatu-Whanganui and Taranaki. Pockets of weakness in North Canterbury come out even more clearly on this timelier three-month growth comparison.
*Size of bubble represents the number of properties in the Territorial Authority CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 23 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
Main Cities Housing Market Indicators
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CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 25 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
Auckland Market Activity Buyer Demand - Auckland The overall weak trend for property market activity in Auckland masks important differences across buyer types. Movers continue to bide their time, perhaps preferring to renovate their existing property or are simply unable to trade up their property because of affordability problems. Multiple property owners in Auckland, while still the most important buyer group, have held their market share pretty steady in the past few quarters. So this leaves first time buyers as the stand-out group. Their share of activity has risen to 24% in Auckland, the highest level since 2009. As noted earlier, access to Kiwisaver funds and a willingness to compromise are likely to have helped keep the first timers in the market in Auckland.
Buyer Classification - Auckland
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Auckland Values Average Value of Housing Stock - Auckland The quarterly rate of change in Auckland property values slowed again in March, from February’s figure of 0.8% to 0.4%. That is consistent with the slowing levels of market activity. Franklin is leading Auckland in terms of three-month growth (1.3%), while Auckland City actually saw a small dip in values in March (-0.1%). The North Shore has the strongest annual growth rate of 3%, whereas Waitakere and Manukau have been flat over the past year.
Annual and Quarterly Value Change - Auckland
March 2018 Current Value
3 months
12 months
Since 2007 peak
Rodney
$949,896
North Shore
$1,235,905
0.9%
1%
62%
0.8%
3%
92%
Waitakere
$824,848
0.1%
0%
95%
Auckland City
$1,244,218
-0.1%
1%
100%
Manukau
$903,135
0.8%
0%
97%
Papakura
$703,258
0.9%
2%
95%
Franklin
$675,378
1.3%
1%
71%
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Auckland Suburb Value Change Annual Value Change
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Although the average Auckland property value has been pretty flat for the past year or so, as always the average doesn’t apply everywhere. Suburbs to the south and west have been vulnerable to falls, but the central city, and the north and west have seen values continue to rise.
*Size of bubble represents the number of properties in the suburb. Based on CoreLogic Median E-valuer CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 29 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Current Auckland Suburb Values Median Value of Housing Stock
20 km 10 km
Slight drops in value have not changed a picture of widespread unaffordability in Auckland. There are now 110 suburbs where the average value of the housing stock is over one million dollars with Piha, New Windsor and Bombay among the latest to join the club and Unsworth Heights dropping slightly below the milestone mark.
*Based on CoreLogic Median E-valuer CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 30 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
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Hamilton Market Activity Buyer Demand - Hamilton Overall buyer demand has tailed off in Hamilton in recent weeks and is significantly lower than a year ago. Multiple property owners have eased back in Hamilton this quarter, after being a bit more active the previous quarter. The market share for movers continues to drop sharply and at 22% is at historically low levels. So as is the case in several other parts of the country, first time buyers are key players in Hamilton at present. At 25%, their market share has risen back to five-year highs. A reasonably strong rise in rents in Hamilton over the past year is likely to have been a driver for first time buyers to take the first step on the housing ladder.
Buyer Classification - Hamilton
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Hamilton Values Average Value of Housing Stock - Hamilton Hamilton’s property values have perked up in the past few months, with the quarterly growth rate accelerating from 0.8% in February to 2.2% in March. The annual growth rate has also ticked above 4% for the first time since August last year. Hamilton Central & North West is leading the city in terms of quarterly value growth (4.4%), but the strongest longer-term upswing has been in Hamilton South West. There, property values are up by 7% in the past 12 months. Hamilton North East is weakest on the annual comparison.
Annual and Quarterly Value Change - Hamilton
March 2018 Current Value
3 months
12 months
Since 2007 peak
Hamilton Central & North West
$515,877
4.4%
4%
44%
Hamilton North East
$699,275
1.5%
3%
56%
Hamilton South East
$501,973
1.4%
4%
44%
Hamilton South West
$498,890
2.2%
7%
46%
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Tauranga Market Activity Buyer Demand - Tauranga Tauranga’s valuation volumes remain volatile, but the general picture is that they have held up better than other parts of the country. The composition of the market in Tauranga is quite different to other main centres, with movers and multiple property owners the most important categories. It has always been less of a first time buyer’s market than elsewhere, and only 17% of activity recently has come from this source.
Buyer Classification - Tauranga
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Tauranga Values Average Value of Housing Stock - Tauranga Tauranga property values are proving to be a little bouncy at present, accelerating one month, only to slow again the next. After rising to 2.8% in February, the quarterly growth rate eased back to 1.9% in March. The annual growth rate also cooled a little in March, from 4.9% to 4.5%.
Annual and Quarterly Value Change - Tauranga
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Wellington Market Activity Buyer Demand - Wellington Wellington’s property market activity is holding up reasonably well at present, with multiple property owners and first time buyers jostling for stock. Having fallen a little behind first time buyers in the final few months of 2017, multiple property owners have made a strong comeback in terms of market share in the first part of this year. Movers account for their lowest share of property market activity in the capital for the history of our time series. It seems likely that uncertainty about the prospects for interest rates will be causing some existing owners to just sit tight where they are, rather than stretch themselves to make that next purchase.
Buyer Classification - Wellington
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Wellington Values Average Value of Housing Stock – Wellington There are signs that Wellington’s property values may be starting to test their limits, with the quarterly growth rate now having slowed for the second month in a row in March. The annual growth rate also eased from 8.6% in February to 8.2% in March, which is the slowest pace since March 2016. Upper Hutt’s property values continue to rise the strongest across the Wellington region, although Porirua, Lower Hutt and Wellington City are still edging higher.
Annual and Quarterly Change in Value - Wellington
February 2018 Current Value
3 months
12 months
Since 2007 peak
Porirua
$549,185
1.6%
7%
44%
Upper Hutt
$482,846
2.8%
9%
37%
Lower Hutt
$532,278
1.5%
7%
36%
Wellington City
$768,108
1.5%
7%
44%
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 37 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Christchurch Market Activity Buyer Demand - Christchurch Market activity in Christchurch remains pretty stable, albeit at levels comfortably lower than a year ago. Both movers and multiple property owners are slowly pulling back their share of activity in Christchurch, leaving the playing field open for first time buyers – and they are taking their opportunity. Their share of activity has risen to 26%, the highest on record (albeit the number of transactions is not a record). Given the abundance of new, larger and more expensive properties in neighbouring Selwyn and Waimakariri, some movers may be relocating outside Christchurch and this is helping to free up the stock for first time buyers.
Buyer Classification - Christchurch
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 38 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
Christchurch Values Average Value of Housing Stock - Christchurch Christchurch’s property values continue to hover at broadly unchanged levels. Technically, they ticked up by 0.1% in March, following a 0.1% increase in February, but that is clearly not a meaningful change. On an annual basis, values ticked down by 1%. Banks Peninsula, Christchurch Central & North, and East, have seen values edge down over the past three months. But Christchurch Hills and Southwest are showing better signs of growth (quarterly rises of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively), albeit the Southwest still has values lower than a year ago.
Annual and Quarterly Value Change - Christchurch
March 2018 Current Value
3 months
12 months
Since 2007 peak
Banks Peninsula
$507,165
-0.5%
0%
6%
Christchurch Central & North
$581,421
-0.4%
-1%
31%
Christchurch East
$371,211
-0.1%
0%
20%
Christchurch Hills
$668,595
0.5%
0%
21%
Christchurch Southwest
$473,994
0.7%
-1%
40%
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 39 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Dunedin Market Activity Buyer Demand - Dunedin Market activity in Dunedin is reasonably subdued, but is holding up a little better than some of the other main centres. First time buyers are certainly ‘in the market’, and their share of activity, at 24%, is at historically high levels. As is the case elsewhere, movers are taking a wait and see approach in Dunedin and their share of activity has tailed off to 28%. Multiple property owners have been the key players in recent months, with their share of activity spiking back up to 31%. Again, this illustrates that despite new regulations and extra costs for landlords, many investors still have a strong appetite to own property.
Buyer Classification - Dunedin
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 40 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
Dunedin Values Average value of stock – Dunedin The growth in values in Dunedin continues to tick along at a reasonable pace, with the quarterly change coming in at 1.8% in March. The annual growth rate held up at more than 9%. Values in Dunedin South haven’t changed much in the past three months, whereas Taieri has seen a strong rise of 4.2%. On an annual basis, all parts of Dunedin have seen value increases of between 8% and 10%.
Annual and quarterly change in value - Dunedin
March 2018 Current Value
3 months
12 months
Since 2007 peak
Dunedin Central & North
$412,991
1.1%
10%
37%
Dunedin South
$375,458
0.1%
9%
32%
Peninsula and Coastal
$366,813
0.7%
8%
35%
Taieri
$415,844
4.2%
10%
42%
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 41 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
CoreLogic Data and Analytics CoreLogic Buyer Classification
Suburb scorecard
A unique and flagship product to CoreLogic, Buyer Classification determines the type of buyer for every purchase of property based on their current and previous ownership of NZ property. Created at a record level, this can be matched to other datasets or summarised at any geographic area.
Detailed housing market indicators at suburb level, with data either in time series or current snapshot, and segmented across houses, flats and apartments. The Suburb Scorecard data includes key housing market metrics such as median prices, median values, transaction volumes, rental statistics and market metrics such as median selling time.
Our buyer classification is used by financial institutions and Government agencies at both record and summary level and overlaid with their own data to assist strategic, policy, compliance, risk management and marketing decisions.
CoreLogic value measures CoreLogic has a suite of products to measure property prices. This ranges from simple market measurements such as median or average sales prices through to stratified medians, various house price indices, and valuing groups of properties using Automated Valuation Models such as E-valuer. The house price indices are available both quarterly for completeness and monthly for reactivity.
To view the latest report online and subscribe to receive it in your inbox on a monthly basis, visit; www.corelogic.co.nz/new-zealand-monthlyproperty-market-update If you would like to know more or obtain tailored data, analytics and insights for your business, please email us at reports@corelogic.co.nz.
The Quarterly CoreLogic House Price Index has been specifically designed to track the value of a portfolio of properties over time and is relied upon by New Zealand regulators and industry as the most accurate measurement of housing market performance. These value measures are available for long time series and for either standard or custom geographic areas and property types.
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Published date: April 2018
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 42 © Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.
CoreLogic Monthly Property Market & Economic Update New Zealand April 2018 | 43 Š Copyright 2018. CoreLogic and its licensors are the sole and exclusive owners of all rights, title and interest (including intellectual property rights) the CoreLogic Data contained in this publication. All rights reserved.Â
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