The world springs into action

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The world springs into action

The Arab Spring was the most significant change in the Middle East and North Africa region since the Sykes-Picot Agreement, just over a century ago. And like the controversial border arrangements, the uprisings have sucked in the international community.

The mass protests in 2011 caught the US in the middle of its pivot towards the Asia-Pacific region. America was a long-time ally of the authoritarian regimes which suppressed militant Islamism, but when the revolts broke out, the Obama administration threw its weight behind the protestors. The move intensified the internationalisation of the crises, pulling in Russia, China, and, to some extent, the EU.

Moscow went in with a direct military intervention, particularly in Libya and Syria. Cynics initially argued that the aggressive foreign policy line was a decoy by President Putin to deflect attention from domestic challenges, but the engagement has since made Russia a key player and turned the region into a bargaining piece on other global diplomatic issues.

China veered away from force and has, instead, sought to build deeper, longer-term ties with the countries in the region. It established dialogue infrastructure such as the China Arab States Cooperation Forum and uses the Belt and Road Initiative to influence strategic relations in areas related to energy, the economy, security, and culture.

The European Union has a less defined or unified approach, but the flow of migration both from Middle Eastern and sub-Saharan countries has decisively shaped its internal and external policies over the last decade. Governments in member states, however, mainly France and Italy which have historic links to North African states, have been proactive in pursuing political stability.

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The geopolitical rivalries between world powers are mirrored among the MENA countries too and the revolts triggered further nationalistic and sectarian competition within the region itself. The events intensified the antagonism between Iran and Saudi Arabia, spilling into a catastrophic proxy war in Yemen.

Meanwhile, Turkey saw an opening at claiming leadership of the Islamic world and has extended its reach well beyond its frontiers with Syria. Another fault-line running across the region is the division over the Muslim Brotherhood. This arena of instability developed into an incubator of international terrorist networks, most notably the brutal ISIS group which committed to carve out a new transnational caliphate.

The years following the revolutions have tipped the region into turbulence, and where conflicts have abated, new autocrats have clawed their ways into power. The struggles of ordinary citizens have all but drowned in the chaos of geopolitical interests, leaving a generation of Arabs worse off from when they dared to demand more control over their own lives.

The Arab Spring is holding on to the promise of a full blossom. It is now time for the international community to decide which camp it sides with, the oppressors or the oppressed.