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Here are the odds a hurricane will hit us this storm season

Keith Magill

Houma Courier-Thibodaux Daily Comet USA TODAY NETWORK

Forecasters predict an aboveaverage number of storms this hurricane season for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic.

Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project predicts 17 named storms for the sixmonth season that starts June 1. Of those, eight will be hurricanes, including four that will reach Category 3 strength or higher.

The forecast is almost the same as last year, one of the busiest on record in which seven named storms affected Louisiana.

The research team, led by Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell and Jhordanne Jones, says there’s a 44% chance a major hurricane, Category 3 or stronger, will hit somewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas. The average odds over the past century are 30%.

The forecast, released in early April, is similar to one issued by the commercial weather agency Accuweather. It predicts 1620 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, three to five of them major.

A key to this year’s aboveaverage predictions, Colorado State researchers say, is the likely absence of El Niño. The weather pattern, based in the Pacific Ocean, sends strong trade winds across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic that tend to disrupt and weaken hurricanes. In addition, the winds’ absence is expected to help keep waters in the Gulf and Atlantic warmer and more conducive to hurricanes during the season’s midsummer peak.

A typical year, based on records from 1981 to 2010, brings 12 tropical storms. Of those, six are hurricanes and three are Category 3 or greater, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. About two hurricanes hit the U.S. during a typical season.

NOAA updated those averages this year, something it does routinely once every decade. The agency is now basing the norms on a new 30year timeframe from 1991 to 2020. Over that period, the yearly average increased to 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. The average for major hurricanes remains unchanged at three.

“These updated averages better reflect our collective experience of the past 10 years, which included some very active hurricane seasons,” Matt Rosencrans, seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release last month, when the figures were updated. “NOAA scientists have evaluated the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and determined that it can influence storm intensity.”

But he said further study is needed to better understand climate change’s impact on the number of storms that form in a given year.

Collaborative research by the Colorado State team and the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State University in Massachusetts uses records dating back to the late 1800s to determine the odds a hurricane will hit a given state, parish or county. Based on that data, here are the odds Louisiana, Terrebonne or Lafourche will get hit on any given year:

Louisiana: The state a 30% chance of being hit by a one or more hurricanes and a 10% chance of being struck by a Category 3 or or higher.

Terrebonne: There’s a 5.6% chance one or more hurricanes will make landfall in the parish, 2.6% for a major one.

Lafourche: The parish has a 2% chance of a hurricane landfall, .9% for a major one.

The team had not issued specific odds for this season by midMay, but the percentages have been consistently higher in years like this one, when forecasters are projecting more storms than normal.

Experts acknowledge that forecasting the number, severity or location of hurricanes before a season begins is an inexact science.

Most use historical data and seasonal weather conditions to make an educated guess.

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season,” Bell said.