DRAFT FINAL REPORT Prepared for :
Cradle Coast Authority The Tarkine - Latent Demand Quantification Step 2 : Economic Evaluation of Visitor Scenarios December 2007
Prepared By : EMDA in conjunction with - Moore Consulting & SCA Marketing
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
1
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 1 : Introduction
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Contents Section 1 : Introduction Section 2 : Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment Section 3 : Tarkine model results Section 4 : Key Findings Section 5 : Next Steps
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
2
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 1 : Introduction
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Step 2 : Background In the first step (Step 1) of this project, five consumer segments are identified that could potentially visit the Tarkine :A core group - Nature Enthusiasts, whose primary holiday motivation is to experience nature. Four secondary groups, Younger Nature Enjoyers, Family Nature Enjoyers, Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers and Lower Older Nature Enjoyers. For these segments experiencing nature is a major factor in their holiday choice. Step 2 develops an econometric model that links the consumer segments identified in Step 1 (outlined above) and criteria developed (ie access, attractions) to identify potential patronage numbers and regional economic benefits (tourism spending and employment). This includes the quantification of a range of development scenarios for the Tarkine (ie Base case, Preferred). This model mathematically links the size and characteristics of each consumer segment identified in Step 1, by year, for the next ten years with possible conversion levels and tourism spending levels that could be achieved under each scenario, for the Tarkine. This approach quantifies, in terms of tourism spending and employment, the possible impact of development scenarios at the Tarkine, enabling decisions to be made about where to focus the effort in terms of concept development. The model has been constructed in excel using consumer based data inputs from the visitor surveys. The chart overleaf outlines the method used for developing each module component in the model.In order to gather the most realistic responses from the segments to the concepts, a realistic interpretation of the concepts will need to be shown to each segment tested.
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
3
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 1 : Introduction
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Step 2 : Tarkine Model Method Task
Model Phase
Output - 10 Year Forecasts
Method
Phase 1
Tasmania Visitor Number Forecasts by each Segment
Econometric Drivers for each Segment are identified, forecasts of Drivers are then applied to Segment Sizes via Composite Index.
Phase 2
Tarkine Visitor Number Forecasts by each Segment
Tarkine Visitor Conversion Ratios applied to each Segment
Tarkine Visitor Forecasts by Segment
Phase 3
Tarkine Visitor Night Forecasts by each Segment
Visit night scenarios applied average visitor nights
Tarkine Visitor Nights Forecasts by Segment (Base Case, Preferred)
Visitor Forecasts by Segment
Phase 4
Tarkine Visitor Spending Forecasts by each Segment
Avge. spend per night applied , varying by segments (TVS data)
Tarkine Visitor Spending Forecasts by Segment (Base Case, Preferred)
Phase 5
Tarkine Visitor Employment Generation Forecasts by each Segment
T21 Tourism spending to employment ratios applied
Tarkine Employment Forecasts by Segment (Base Case. Preferred)
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
4
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 : Introduction
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
5
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 : Introduction In this section the method and results of the econometric model that provides visitor forecasts of the segments for Tasmania, are presented.
Segment Visitation (Tasmania) - YE Dec 07
72193
Nature Enthusiasts
Individual models have been developed for each of the five segments segment. The current status of the segment sizes in terms of visitation to Tasmania is summarised in this chart. Nature Enthusiasts are the largest segment. Lower Older Nature Enjoyers are the 2nd largest. Younger Nature Enjoyers and Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers are about the same size, while Family Nature Enjoyers are the smallest.
Nature Enjoyers
59050
Younger
Family
Affluent Older
Lower Older
39241
63486
67010
Source : TVS
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Nature Enthusiasts Nature Enthusiasts have started to increase again - patronage now up passed the 70,000.
Nature Enthusiasts - Patronage ('000) 75 70 65 60 55 50
Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
45
Source : TVS
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Nature Enthusiasts - Model Inputs Vic PC ($B)
5
50
A
F
45
3
40
2
35
1
30
0
25
A
AUS GDP ($B)
Int. Arrivals ('000)
5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5
2200
A
F
2000
F
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
4
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
A
F
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
These drivers when mathematically combined significantly explain the trends in the visitor segments - in this case Nature Enthusiasts.
NSW GDP (% p.a.)
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
There are four key drivers of this market :NSW GDP Vic PC Aus GDP International Arrivals
Source : Access Economics
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Nature Enthusiasts The EMDA Composite Index (CI) is a mathematical combination of the four key drivers.
Nature Enthusiasts - Patronage ('000) and CI 75
The Index explains 89% of the Enthusiasts visitation.
EMDA Composite Index (CI)
70
This forms a sound basis for forecasting. Outlook for the drivers is then mathematically combined to provide a forecast of the CI. The CI outlook is then applied to the visitation numbers to generate the forecast of Enthusiasts.
Actual ('000)
65 60 55 50
Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
45
Source : TVS & EMDA Model
Model Specification Pearson Moment Correlation co-efficient 0.89
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
9
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Nature Enthusiasts The outlook is for moderate growth in this market. The market is forecast to grow from 69722 to 94066 by 2017 (+35%). A critical assumption is that Tasmania maintains its Wilderness Appeal.
Nature Enthusiasts - Patronage ('000) and CI 110
A
F
100 90
Actual ('000)
80
2012 (F)
80128
+2.3
2013 (F)
82852
+3.4
2014 (F)
86000
+3.8
2015 (F)
88752
+3.2
2016 (F)
91326
+2.9
2017 (F)
94066
+3.0
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
30 Jun-17
+0.6
Jun-16
78326
Jun-15
2011 (F)
EMDA Composite Index (CI) Jun-14
+1.0
Jun-13
77859
Jun-12
2010 (F)
40
Jun-11
+5.3
Jun-10
77088
Jun-09
2009 (F)
50
Jun-08
+5.0
Jun-07
73208
Jun-06
2008 (F)
Jun-05
+12.8
Jun-04
69722
60
Jun-03
2007 (A)
70
Jun-02
Visitors ('000)
% Change p.a.
Jun-01
Year Ended June
Source : TVS & EMDA Model
Model Specification Pearson Moment Correlation co-efficient 0.89
10
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Younger Nature Enjoyers This segment has been trending down after the peak of 2003.
Younger Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) 70
65
60
55
50
Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
45
Source : TVS
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Younger Nature Enjoyers - Model Inputs Vic PC ($B)
30
50
A
F
25
45
A
F
40 20 35 15
25
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
10
30 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
AUS GDP ($B)
AUS Housing Investment ($B)
5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5
24
A
F
22
A
F
20 18 16 14 12 10
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
These drivers when mathematically combined significantly explain the trends in the visitor segments.
NSW Business Investment ($B)
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
There are four key drivers of this market :NSW Business Investment Vic PC Aus GDP Aus Housing Investment
Source : Access Economics
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Younger Nature Enjoyers The EMDA Composite Index (CI) is a mathematical combination of the four key drivers.
Younger Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) and CI 70 EMDA Composite Index (CI)
The Index explains 72% of the Younger Nature Enjoyers visitation. This forms a sound basis for forecasting. Outlook for the drivers is then mathematically combined to provide a forecast of the CI. The CI outlook is then applied to the visitation numbers to generate the forecast of Younger Nature Enjoyers.
65
60
55
50 Actual ('000) Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
45
Source : TVS & EMDA Model
Model Specification Pearson Moment Correlation co-efficient 0.72
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Younger Nature Enjoyers The outlook is for very moderate growth in this market.
Younger Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) and CI The market is forecast to grow from 57143 to 70748 by 2017 (+23.8%). A critical assumption is that Tasmania maintains its Wilderness Appeal.
90
A
F
80 Actual ('000)
70
Year Ended June
Visitors ('000)
% Change p.a.
2007 (A)
57143
-9.3
2008 (F)
59143
3.5
2009 (F)
63165
6.8
2010 (F)
64554
2.2
2011 (F)
63780
-1.2
2012 (F)
63269
-0.8
2013 (F)
65864
4.1
2014 (F)
66478
0.9
2015 (F)
68335
2.8
2016 (F)
69360
1.5
2017 (F)
70748
2.0
60 50
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
40 EMDA Composite Index (CI) Jun-17
Jun-16
Jun-15
Jun-14
Jun-13
Jun-12
Jun-11
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
30
Source : TVS & EMDA Model
Model Specification Pearson Moment Correlation co-efficient 0.72
14
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Family Nature Enjoyers This segment is also softening. With visitation down from the 03 and 05 peaks.
Family Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) 50
45
40
35
30
Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
25
Source : TVS
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Family Nature Enjoyers - Model Inputs Vic Real Final Demand ($B)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
90
A
F
80
A
F
70 60
40
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
50 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
AUS GDP ($B)
AUS Housing Investment ($B)
190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100
24
A
F
22
A
F
20 18 16 14 12 10
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
These drivers when mathematically combined significantly explain the trends in the visitor segments.
NSW Real Final Demand (%)
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
There are four key drivers of this market :NSW Real Final Demand Vic Real Final Demand Aus GDP Aus Housing Investment
Source : Access Economics
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Family Nature Enjoyers The EMDA Composite Index (CI) is a mathematical combination of the four key drivers.
Family Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) and CI 50 EMDA Composite Index (CI)
The Index explains 79% of the Family Nature Enjoyers visitation. This forms a sound basis for forecasting. Outlook for the drivers is then mathematically combined to provide a forecast of the CI. The CI outlook is then applied to the visitation numbers to generate the forecast of the Family Nature Enjoyers.
45
40
35 Actual ('000)
30
Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
25
Source : TVS & EMDA Model
Model Specification Pearson Moment Correlation co-efficient 0.79
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
17
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Family Nature Enjoyers The outlook is soft in this market. The market is forecast to grow from 38913 to 44661 by 2017 (+15%).
Family Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) and CI 90
A critical assumption is that Tasmania maintains its Wilderness Appeal.
A
F EMDA Composite Index (CI)
80 70 60
Year Ended June
Visitors ('000)
2007 (A)
38913
-1.2
2008 (F)
38135
-2.0
2009 (F)
37563
-1.5
2010 (F)
37187
-1.0
2011 (F)
37633
1.2
2012 (F)
38951
3.5
2013 (F)
40547
4.1
2014 (F)
40872
0.8
2015 (F)
41935
2.6
2016 (F)
43193
3.0
2017 (F)
44661
3.4
% Change p.a.
50 Actual ('000)
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
40
Jun-17
Jun-16
Jun-15
Jun-14
Jun-13
Jun-12
Jun-11
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
30
Source : TVS & EMDA Model
Model Specification Pearson Moment Correlation co-efficient 0.79
18
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers This segment has been flat since 2002 and is recently showing signs of softening.
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) 70
65
60
55
50
Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
45
Source : TVS
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers - Model Inputs Vic. GDP - % Change
110
6
100
A
F
5
90
4
80
3
70
2
60
1
A
F
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
These drivers when mathematically combined significantly explain the trends in the visitor segments.
NSW GDP ($B)
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
There are three key drivers of this market :NSW GDP Vic GDP Aus GDP
AUS GDP ($B)
A
F
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100
Source : Access Economics
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20
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers The EMDA Composite Index (CI) is a mathematical combination of the four key drivers.
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) and CI 75 EMDA Composite Index (CI)
The Index explains 74% of the Affluent Older Enjoyers visitation. 70
This forms a sound basis for forecasting. Outlook for the drivers is then mathematically combined to provide a forecast of the CI. The CI outlook is then applied to the visitation numbers to generate the forecast of the Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers.
65 60 Actual ('000)
55 50
Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
45
Source : TVS & EMDA Model
Model Specification Pearson Moment Correlation co-efficient 0.74
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
21
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers The outlook is soft in this market. The market is forecast to grow from 63855 to 69734 by 2017 (+9%).
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) and CI 110
A critical assumption is that Tasmania maintains its Wilderness Appeal.
A
F
EMDA Composite Index (CI)
100 90 80
Year Ended June
Visitors ('000)
% Change p.a.
70
2007 (A)
63855
-7.1
60
2008 (F)
61939
-3.0
2009 (F)
61010
-1.5
2010 (F)
62230
2.0
2011 (F)
63350
1.8
2012 (F)
65251
3.0
2013 (F)
67730
3.8
2014 (F)
69085
2.0
2015 (F)
68394
-1.0
2016 (F)
68367
0.0
2017 (F)
69734
2.0
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
Actual ('000)
50
Jun-17
Jun-16
Jun-15
Jun-14
Jun-13
Jun-12
Jun-11
Jun-10
Jun-09
Jun-08
Jun-07
Jun-06
Jun-05
Jun-04
Jun-03
Jun-02
Jun-01
40
Source : TVS & EMDA Model
Model Specification Pearson Moment Correlation co-efficient 0.74
22
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers Visitation from this segment is also flat. Visitor numbers have stalled at just under 70,000 reflecting the softening in appeal of Tasmania as a place for iconic natural attractions.
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) 80
70
60
50
40
Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
30
Source : TVS
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23
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - Model Inputs Vic. GDP - % Change
110
6
100
A
F
A
5
90
4
80
3
70
2
60
1
QLD GDP (% Change p.a.)
AUS PC ($B)
8
190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100
A
F
6 5 4 3 1
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
2
A
F
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
7
F
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
These drivers when mathematically combined significantly explain the trends in the visitor segments.
NSW PC ($B)
Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17
There are three key drivers of this market :NSW PC Vic GDP QLD GDP Aus PC
Source : Access Economics
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
24
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers The EMDA Composite Index (CI) is a mathematical combination of the four key drivers.
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) and CI 80 EMDA Composite Index (CI)
The Index explains 83% of the Lower Older Enjoyers visitation. This forms a sound basis for forecasting. Outlook for the drivers is then mathematically combined to provide a forecast of the CI. The CI outlook is then applied to the visitation numbers to generate the forecast of the Lower Older Nature Enjoyers.
70
60 Actual ('000)
50
40
Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07
30
Source : TVS & EMDA Model
Model Specification Pearson Moment Correlation co-efficient 0.83
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
25
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers The outlook in this market is for steady, slow growth.
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - Patronage ('000) and CI The market is forecast to grow from 67399 to 78094 by 2017 (+15.9%). A critical assumption is that Tasmania maintains its Wilderness Appeal.
110
A
F
EMDA Composite Index (CI)
100 90 80
2012 (F)
72026
1.0
2013 (F)
71306
-1.0
2014 (F)
73017
2.4
2015 (F)
75062
2.8
2016 (F)
76488
1.9
2017 (F)
78094
2.1
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
30 Jun-17
3.2
Jun-16
71313
Jun-15
2011 (F)
Jun-14
5.0
Jun-13
69102
Jun-12
2010 (F)
Actual ('000)
40
Jun-11
3.0
Jun-10
65811
Jun-09
2009 (F)
50
Jun-08
-5.2
Jun-07
63894
Jun-06
2008 (F)
Jun-05
-1.5
Jun-04
67399
60
Jun-03
2007 (A)
70
Jun-02
Visitors ('000)
% Change p.a.
Jun-01
Year Ended June
Source : TVS & EMDA Model
Model Specification Pearson Moment Correlation co-efficient 0.83
26
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 :Tasmanian Visitor Forecasts by Segment
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 2 : Summary All five segments are forecast to grow over the next 10 years. However, the biggest growth is forecast to be amongst the Nature Enthusiasts and they will be the biggest segment over the next 10 years. The Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers are forecast to remain the smallest segment and only very moderate growth is expected. The Younger Nature Enjoyers are expected to grow the most over the next ten years. In total the segments are expected to grow from 229,000 to 263,000 (+15%).
Segment Visitation (Tasmania) - YE Dec 07/2017 Forecasts 72193 Nature Enthusiasts
+35% 94066
Visitors Dec. 07 (Actual) Visitors 2017 (Forecasts) Enjoyers
59050
+23.8%
Younger
70748 39241
+15%
Family
44661 63486
+9%
Affluent Older
69734 67010 Lower Older
78094
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+15.9%
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 : Tarkine Model Results
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 : Tarkine Model Results In this section the results from the following modules are presented, by Segment :Total Tarkine Visitors Total Tarkine Visitor Nights Total Tarkine Visitor spending Total employment supported by the visitor spending. Two scenarios have been developed, the Preferred Conversion and the Base Case.
Preferred Conversion :This case assumes that access to the Tarkine appeals is easily available via a quality sealed road, that incorporates the most appealing coastal aspects as well as wilderness aspects. It assumes this access demonstrates the pristine nature of the area rather than via degraded areas. The road would have to be of sufficient standard that consumers with hire cars can access the areas and further that there are enough attractions that can be easily reached (ie short walk - no more than 15 minutes) from the road. An example is the sealed road through the Wilsons Promitory in Victoria which enables access to some beaches and aspects of the forest to be easily reached. Some attractions can be visited via unsealed roads and/or walking as is the case of Kakadu - sealed roads provide the core access, then some attractions can be reached via unsealed roads. It also assumes that the experiences and attractions aligns with each segment, generating a high level of satisfaction and that the area has a strong levels of awareness with a commensurate level of Preference to visit. Furthermore infrastructure such as accommodation and food outlets are also provided. This identifies the Latent Demand Potential for the Region.
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 : Tarkine Model Results The Base Case :This is essentially a do nothing scenario - access remains challenging, attractions are underdeveloped and the level of awareness is low. In this case, the impact of a mainly unsealed road access is modelled. An unsealed road would provide limited access to the key attractions. Such a road restricts access and therefore conversion because hire cars generally cannot be used on unsealed roads (for insurance reasons) and this is a core market in Tasmania, some vehicles are often unsuitable for unsealed roads such as Caravans and Campervans, the driving times are also much longer discouraging visitation, some consumers are concerned about possible damage to their vehicles and there is greater concern amongst drivers about driving on unsealed roads from a safety perspective. All these factors contribute to a much lower conversion when access is via unsealed roads only.
In both scenarios an extra 15% of visitors are included from outside the segments- this is a typical ratio for natural attractions in Tasmania. At this stage the conversion ratios applied are assumptions based on comparative data from the Visitor Surveys - one of the key tasks of the Concept testing is to gather the actual conversion ratios from prospective consumers based on information presented to them about the Tarkine Experience.
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Nature Enthusiasts Nature Enthusiasts have the highest conversion to visitation. Cradle Mountain achieves a 71.7% conversion. Other well established locations with good access also achieve conversion levels above 33%. (Freycinet, Cataract Gorge). At the other end - conversion is much lower - highlighting the lower end of conversion ranges. In the Tarkine model a conversion level of 60% for the Preferred Scenarios and 20% for the Base Case Scenario. These conversion are at the higher end - and for the Tarkine to active the Preferred level would take major investment in the consumer experience.
Nature Enthusiasts - % Visit Cradle Mountain Freycinet Nat. Park Cataract Gorge Lake St. Clair Mount Wellington Gordon River Overland Track Russell Falls Nat. Park Bay of Fires Blowhole/Tasman Arch Tahune Forest Airwalk Mole Creek Caves Central Plateau Nelson Falls Nature Trail Liffey Falls Mt. William Nat. Park Lake Pedder Rocky Cape Nat. Park Cockle Creek Wielangta Forest Drive Douglas-Apsley Nat. Park Narawntapu Nat. Park South West Nat. Pk.
71.7 44.5 37.2 36.6 32.8 24.7 19.9 18.2 17.1 16.3 16 9.7 7.9 7.4 7.1 5.5 4.9 4.8 4.2 3.1 2.7 1.7 0.7 Source : TVS
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Nature Enthusiasts - Model Outputs (Visitor Numbers/Nights) Nature Enthusiasts - Patronage
48077 46715 46996
49711
51600
Nature Enthusiasts - Visitor Nights ('000) 53251
54796
56440
81752 82242 84134
Preferred Conversion
18813 17200 17750 18265 15572 15665 16026 16570
86995
90300
Jun-12 Jun-11
Jun-14 Jun-13
98769
22188 22832 23517 19465 19582 20032 20713 21500
Base Case
Jun-16 Jun-15
95893
Preferred Conversion
Base Case Jun-10
93190
Jun-10 Jun-17
Jun-12 Jun-11
Jun-14 Jun-13
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17 Source : EMDA Model
The conversion ratios are then applied to the patronage outlook for Nature Enthusiasts generated by the model. This results in a patronage level of 56,000 by 2017 under the Preferred Scenario, compared with a Base Case patronage of 18,800. Based on the visitor night input (Preferred 1.75 nights per visitor / Base 1.25 nights per visitor)- this translates into 23,500 nights in the area under a Base Case increasing to 98,769 visitor nights under the preferred option. 31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Nature Enthusiasts - Model Outputs (Spending / Jobs) Nature Enthusiasts - $ Spending (todays $)
18.5
18.6
19
19.7
21.1
20.4
21.7
Nature Enthusiasts - Employment Generated (No.) 22.3 447
Preferred Conversion
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.9
5
5.2
450
Total Direct and Indirect Jobs
5.3
106
107
494
476
460
Jun-12 Jun-11
Jun-14 Jun-13
The jobs to tourism spend ratios outlined in Tourism Tasmania's T21 document have been used. This identifies that for each $1M in tourism spending, 14.4 direct jobs are supported and 9.7 indirect jobs are supported. Direct jobs are activities such a tour guides and hospitality workers, whereas indirect are for example suppliers to the industry such a food manufacturers.
110
118
113
121
125
129
Base Case
Jun-16 Jun-15
540
524
Preferred Conversion
Base Case Jun-10
509
Jun-10 Jun-17
Jun-12 Jun-11
Jun-14 Jun-13
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17
Under the Preferred option - this level of patronage and visitor nights translates into $22.3M in tourism spending in the Region (based on an average visitor night spend of $226). This in turn would support 540 jobs. The Base Case with a lower revenue impact, also has a much smaller jobs impact - but 129 jobs in the North West Regional context is still significant as the total area has an employment level of 50,100 (Nov. 07 - Mersey Lyell Statistical Area).
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Younger Nature Enjoyers Although still interested in nature there conversion to visiting natural areas is lower than the Nature Enthusiasts. They have the highest conversion for Freycinet (53.3%) and conversion to visit Cradle Mountain is also reasonable high. Other area such as Mt. William National Park have much lower conversion levels. In the Tarkine model a conversion level of 40% for the Preferred Scenarios and 7.5% for the Base Case Scenario. These conversion are at the higher end - and for the Tarkine to achieve the Preferred level would take major investment in the consumer experience.
Younger Nature Enjoyers - % Visit Freycinet Nat. Park Cradle Mountain Mount Wellington Cataract Gorge Blowhole/Tasman Arch Russell Falls Nat. Park Lake St. Clair Tahune Forest Airwalk Bay of Fires Mole Creek Caves Nelson Falls Nature Trail Gordon River Douglas-Apsley Nat. Park Liffey Falls Central Plateau Lake Pedder Overland Track Rocky Cape Nat. Park Narawntapu Nat. Park Wielangta Forest Drive Mt. William Nat. Park Cockle Creek South West Nat. Pk.
53.3 45.4 42 39.8 27.6 24.9 24.3 19.3 15.1 11.1 11 8 4.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.9 0.3 Source : TVS
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Younger Nature Enjoyers - Model Outputs (Visitor Numbers/Nights) Younger Nature Enjoyers - Patronage 25822 25512 25308
Younger Nature Enjoyers - Visitor Nights ('000)
28299 27334 27744 26345 26591 32277 31890 31635
35374 34168 34680 32932 33239
Preferred Conversion
4842
4783
4745
4940
4986
5125
Preferred Conversion
5202
5306 3631
Base Case Jun-10
Jun-12 Jun-11
Jun-14 Jun-13
3559
3739
3705
3844
3902
3980
Base Case
Jun-16 Jun-15
3588
Jun-10 Jun-17
Jun-12 Jun-11
Jun-14 Jun-13
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17 Source : EMDA Model
The conversion ratios are then applied to the patronage outlook for Younger Nature Enjoyers generated by the model. This results in a patronage level of 28,300 by 2017 under the Preferred Scenario, compared with a Base Case patronage of 5,300. Based on the visitor night input (Preferred 1.25 nights per visitor / Base 0.75 nights per visitor) - this translates into 3,980 nights in the area under a Base Case increasing to 35,774 visitor nights under the preferred option. 31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Younger Nature Enjoyers - Model Outputs ($ and Jobs) Younger Nature Enjoyers - $ Spending (todays $)
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.8
4.9
4.8
5
Younger Nature Enjoyers - Jobs Generated (Number)
5.1
113
111
110
116
115
119
121
123
Preferred Conversion
Preferred Conversion Total Direct and Indirect Jobs Base Case 0.5
0.5
Jun-10
0.5
0.5
Jun-12 Jun-11
0.5
0.6
Jun-14 Jun-13
0.6
Base Case 0.6
13
Jun-16 Jun-15
13
Jun-10 Jun-17
12
13
13
Jun-12 Jun-11
13
Jun-14 Jun-13
14
14
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17
Under the Preferred option - this level of patronage and visitor nights translates into $5.1M in tourism spending in the Region (based on an average visitor night spend of $144). This in turn would support 123 jobs. The Base Case with a lower revenue impact, also has a much smaller jobs impact - 14 jobs.
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Family Nature Enjoyers The Family Nature Enjoyers have the greatest conversion for Mount Wellington - ease of access is a factor here. Cradle Mountain is only just lower showing that this is a major drawcard even for this segment with the added complication of travelling with children. The conversion level drops - with many areas at 5% or less. In the Tarkine model a conversion level of 40% for the Preferred Scenarios and 7.5% for the Base Case Scenario. These conversion are at the higher end - and for the Tarkine to achieve the Preferred level would take major investment in the consumer experience.
Family Nature Enjoyers - % Visit Mount Wellington Cradle Mountain Cataract Gorge Freycinet Nat. Park Tahune Forest Airwalk Blowhole/Tasman Arch Lake St. Clair Russell Falls Nat. Park Gordon River Bay of Fires Mole Creek Caves Liffey Falls Nelson Falls Nature Trail Douglas-Apsley Nat. Park Central Plateau Mt. William Nat. Park Rocky Cape Nat. Park Narawntapu Nat. Park Lake Pedder Cockle Creek Overland Track Wielangta Forest Drive South West Nat. Pk.
48.3 44.6 43.9 40.7 37 28.1 18.8 18 17.4 17.1 13.2 7.3 5.2 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 0 Source : TVS
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Family Nature Enjoyers - Model Outputs (Visitor Numbers/Nights) Family Nature Enjoyers - Patronage
14875 15053
15580
Family Nature Enjoyers - Visitor Nights ('000)
16774 17277 16219 16349
17864 18594 18817
19475
20967 21596 20274 20436
Preferred Conversion
Preferred Conversion
2789
2823
2921
3041
3065
3145
3239
3350 2092
Base Case Jun-10
Jun-12 Jun-11
Jun-14 Jun-13
22331
2191
2281
2299
2359
2430
2512
Base Case
Jun-16 Jun-15
2117
Jun-10 Jun-17
Jun-12 Jun-11
Jun-14 Jun-13
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17 Source : EMDA Model
The conversion ratios are then applied to the patronage outlook for the Family Nature Enjoyers generated by the model. This results in a patronage level of 17,800 by 2017 under the Preferred Scenario, compared with a Base Case patronage of 3,350. Based on the visitor night input - this translates into 2,512 nights in the area under a Base Case increasing to 22,331 visitor nights under the preferred option. (Preferred 1.25 nights per visitor / Base 0.75 nights per visitor). 31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Family Nature Enjoyers - Model Outputs ($ and Jobs) Family Nature Enjoyers - $ Spending (todays $)
4.8
4.9
5
5.2
5.4
5.3
5.6
Family Nature Enjoyers - Jobs Generated (Number)
5.8 116
117
121
127
126
131
135
139
Preferred Conversion
Preferred Conversion Total Direct and Indirect Jobs Base Case
0.5
0.5
Jun-10
0.6
0.6
Jun-12 Jun-11
0.6
0.6
Jun-14 Jun-13
0.6
Base Case 13
0.6
Jun-16 Jun-15
13
Jun-10 Jun-17
14
14
14
Jun-12 Jun-11
15
Jun-14 Jun-13
15
16
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17
Under the Preferred option - this level of patronage and visitor nights translates into $5.8M in tourism spending in the Region (based on an average visitor night spend of $257.8). This in turn would support 139 jobs. The Base Case with a lower revenue impact, also has a much smaller jobs impact - 16 jobs.
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers For the Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers - Cradle Mountain, Freycinet , Mount Wellington and Cataract Gorge have a similar level of conversion at over 40%. The second tier, ranging from Lake St. Clair to Russell Falls all have a 20%+ conversion level. The more remote/less well known have a much lower level of conversion. In the Tarkine model a conversion level of 40% for the Preferred Scenarios and 5% for the Base Case Scenario. These conversion are at the higher end - and for the Tarkine to achieve the Preferred level would take major investment in the consumer experience.
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers - % Visit Cradle Mountain Freycinet Nat. Park Mount Wellington Cataract Gorge Lake St. Clair Tahune Forest Airwalk Gordon River Blowhole/Tasman Arch Russell Falls Nat. Park Bay of Fires Nelson Falls Nature Trail Mole Creek Caves Liffey Falls Rocky Cape Nat. Park Douglas-Apsley Nat. Park Lake Pedder Central Plateau Overland Track Mt. William Nat. Park Wielangta Forest Drive Narawntapu Nat. Park Cockle Creek South West Nat. Pk.
46.7 46 45 43.8 27.5 27.2 26.4 22.9 22.9 15.6 10.1 7.4 6.7 6 5.9 5.9 5.5 4.6 4.4 3.2 3 2.9 0.2 Source : TVS
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers - Model Outputs (Visitor Numbers/Nights) Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers - Patronage 26100 24892 25340
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers - Visitor Nights ('000)
27894 27092 27634 27358 27347 32625 31115 31675
33865 34543 34197 34183 34867
Preferred Conversion
Preferred Conversion
Base Case 3112
3168
3263
3387
3454
3420
3418
Base Case
3487 2334
Jun-10
Jun-12 Jun-11
Jun-14 Jun-13
Jun-16 Jun-15
2376
Jun-10 Jun-17
2447
2591
2540
Jun-12 Jun-11
2565
Jun-14 Jun-13
2564
2615
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17 Source : EMDA Model
The conversion ratios are then applied to the patronage outlook for the Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers generated by the model. This results in a patronage level of 27,894 by 2017 under the Preferred Scenario, compared with a Base Case patronage of 3,487. Based on the visitor night input - this translates into 2,615 nights in the area under a Base Case increasing to 34,867 visitor nights under the preferred option. (Preferred 1.25 nights per visitor / Base 0.75 nights per visitor). 31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers - Model Outputs ($ and Jobs) Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers-$ Spending (todays $)
6.9
7.1
7.3
7.6
7.7
7.6
7.6
7.8
Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers-Jobs (Number)
168
171
176
187
183
185
185
188
Preferred Conversion
Preferred Conversion Total Direct and Indirect Jobs
Base Case
Base Case 0.5
0.5
Jun-10
0.5
0.6
Jun-12 Jun-11
0.6
0.6
Jun-14 Jun-13
0.6
0.6
13
Jun-16 Jun-15
13
Jun-10 Jun-17
13
14
14
Jun-12 Jun-11
14
Jun-14 Jun-13
14
14
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17
Under the Preferred option - this level of patronage and visitor nights translates into $7.8M in tourism spending in the Region (based on an average visitor night spend of $223.30). This in turn would support 188 jobs. The Base Case with a lower revenue impact, also has a much smaller jobs impact - 14 jobs.
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers The Lower Older, because they stay in Tasmania longer, have a higher conversion rate than the Affluent Older. Conversion to visit Cradle Mountain is just over 50% and Cataract Gorge is very close to 50% as well. In the Tarkine model a conversion level of 50% for the Preferred Scenarios and 10% for the Base Case Scenario. These conversion are at the higher end - and for the Tarkine to achieve the Preferred level would take major investment in the consumer experience.
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - % Visit Cradle Mountain Cataract Gorge Mount Wellington Freycinet Nat. Park Tahune Forest Airwalk Lake St. Clair Gordon River Blowhole/Tasman Arch Russell Falls Nat. Park Bay of Fires Nelson Falls Nature Trail Liffey Falls Rocky Cape Nat. Park Mole Creek Caves Central Plateau Lake Pedder Narawntapu Nat. Park Douglas-Apsley Nat. Park Mt. William Nat. Park Cockle Creek Wielangta Forest Drive Overland Track South West Nat. Pk.
50.8 49.2 43.2 40.1 39.2 34.9 34.8 32.1 26.7 17.7 13.7 11.2 11.2 10.9 10.8 9 6.5 5.4 5.4 5.1 5 1.6 0.2 Source : TVS
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - Model Outputs (Visitor Numbers/Nights) Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - Patronage
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - Visitor Nights ('000)
Preferred Conversion
48809 46914 47805 45636 45016 44566 43189 44571
39047 37531 38244 36013 35653 36509 35657 34551
Preferred Conversion
Base Case Base Case 6910
7131
7203
7131
7302
7506
7649
7809 5183
Jun-10
Jun-12 Jun-11
Jun-14 Jun-13
Jun-16 Jun-15
5348
Jun-10 Jun-17
5402
5476
5348
Jun-12 Jun-11
5630
Jun-14 Jun-13
5737
5857
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17 Source : EMDA Model
The conversion ratios are then applied to the patronage outlook for the Lower Older Nature Enjoyers generated by the model. This results in a patronage level of 39,047 by 2017 under the Preferred Scenario, compared with a Base Case patronage of 7,809. Based on the visitor night input - this translates into 5,857 nights in the area under a Base Case increasing to 48,809 visitor nights under the preferred option. (Preferred 1.25 nights per visitor / Base 0.75 nights per visitor). 31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - Model Outputs ($ and Jobs) Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - $ Spending (todays $)
7.5
7.7
7.8
7.7
8.1
7.9
8.3
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - Jobs (Number)
8.5
181
Preferred Conversion
187
189
191
187
197
200
205
Preferred Conversion Total Direct and Indirect Jobs
Base Case 0.9
0.9
Jun-10
0.9
0.9
Jun-12 Jun-11
0.9
1
Jun-14 Jun-13
1
Base Case 1
22
Jun-16 Jun-15
22
Jun-10 Jun-17
23
23
22
Jun-12 Jun-11
24
Jun-14 Jun-13
24
25
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17
Under the Preferred option - this level of patronage and visitor nights translates into $8.5M in tourism spending in the Region (based on an average visitor night spend of $173.30). This in turn would support 205 jobs. The Base Case with a lower revenue impact, also has a much smaller jobs impact - 25 jobs.
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 : Segment Summary Of the five segments, the Nature Enthusiasts are the most important with the model indicating that this segment alone could generate $22.3M in tourism spending annually (today's $) attributable to the Tarkine. This is 38% of the total forecast spend in 2017 of $58.2M. The spending generated under the base case is much lower due to the restricted access to the appeals - $5.3M amongst the Nature Enthusiasts.
Tarkine Visitor Spend (Base Case and Preferred) - 2017 Todays $
22.3
Enjoyers Younger
Family
Based on the model results successfully appealing to the Nature Enthusiasts will be critical the successful development of the Tarkine area.
Affluent Older
Lower Older
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
5.3
Nature Enthusiasts
46
0.6
Preferred Conversion Base Case 5.1
* Note additional 15% in spending allowed for in addition to the segment spending
0.6 5.8 0.6 7.8 1 8.5
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 : Summary - Model Outputs (Visitor Numbers/Nights) Summary - Patronage
Summary - Visitor Nights ('000)
Preferred Conversion
250454 243443 246112
199463 190880 194597 186686 182377 172771 174774 177739
Note : Includes an additional 15% of visitors from outside the segments. This is the typical % for Tasmanian natural attractions.
39087
39494
Jun-10
40185
41257
Jun-12 Jun-11
282529
Preferred Conversion
Note : Includes an additional 15% of visitors from outside the segments. This is the typical % for Tasmanian natural attractions.
Base Case
Base Case
42361
43467
44440
45606 38475
Jun-14 Jun-13
269924 275479 257214 263710
Jun-16 Jun-15
38835
Jun-10 Jun-17
39565
40690
Jun-12 Jun-11
41889
43041
Jun-14 Jun-13
44074
45271
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17 Source : EMDA Model
Under the Preferred Conversion rate - the Tarkine provides a high level of visitor nights - generating just under 300,000 nights. The Base case generate 45,271 nights - which is still significant.
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 :Tarkine Model Results
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 3 : Summary - Model Outputs ($ and Jobs) Summary - $ Spending (todays $)
49.8
50.4
51.4
52.9
8.2
Jun-10
8.3
56.7
58.2 992
8.6
Jun-12 Jun-11
55.5
54.2
1021
1059
8.8
9.1
9.3
Total Direct and Indirect Jobs 196
9.6
Jun-16 Jun-15
1111
1166
1135
Preferred Conversion
Base Case
Jun-14 Jun-13
999
1087
Preferred Conversion
Note : Includes an additional 15% of visitors from outside the segments. This is the typical % for Tasmanian natural attractions.
8.1
Summary - Jobs (Number)
198
Jun-10 Jun-17
202
Base Case 214
208
Jun-12 Jun-11
220
Jun-14 Jun-13
225
232
Jun-16 Jun-15
Jun-17
Under the Preferred Conversion rate - the Tarkine provides a high level of visitor spending generating just over $58.2M supporting 1166 jobs (2017). Achieving this would mean that all the segments are progressively targeted and core access is provided via a quality sealed road. Under this scenario the Tarkine would provide a significant contribution to the tourism effort. The Base case generates $9.6M in tourism spend- supporting 232 jobs (2017). Although significant, this would only support the construction of an unsealed road and only the Nature Enthusiasts would be targeted. 31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 4 : Key Findings
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 4 : Key Findings
31/01/08 Tarkine Step 2 Draft Final Report
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Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 4 : Key Findings
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 4 : Key Findings
This model has found that Tasmania has potentially a strong future in the nature tourism - although visitor growth can be characterised as moderate based on the model outputs. This means any development can be assured of a future latent demand that can be realised. In total the five key nature segments are expected to grow from 229,000 to 263,000 (+15%) in Tasmania by 2017. The Tarkine model has found that under the Preferred Scenario the Tarkine has the potential to generate $58.2M in tourism spending in todays $ by 2017 and support just over 1100 jobs. This will only be reached if quality access via a sealed road is provided to a core number of attractions. Furthermore, to reach this level, all of the segments would need to be progressively targeted. Even under a Base Case scenario, the Tarkine area would still be a contributor - generating $9.9M in tourism spending and supporting 232 jobs. Under this scenario, this level of contribution would only support unsealed road access to the Tarkine and only the Nature Enthusiasts would be targeted. This would mean the area would be a significant contributer to Tasmania's tourism effort and under the Preferred Scenario would well assist is enhancing Tasmania's reputation for iconic natural wonders, a reputation that currently is under threat. The Nature Enthusiasts are the most important segment and are forecast to grow the most over the next 10 years (+35%). For the Tarkine - the Nature Enthusiasts offer the biggest potential generating $22.3M (todays $) in tourism spending by 2017. These are the most demanding though in terms of the natural experience they seek. This segment should the first priority segment for the Tarkine development - this segment will establish the reputation of the area and generate the most tourism spending. The other segments also offer potential for the Tarkine with the Lower Nature Enjoyers offering $8.5M in potential, the Affluent Older Nature Enjoyers offer $7.8M, the Family Nature Enjoyers $5.8M and the Younger Nature Enjoyers $5.1M.
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Section 5 : Next Steps
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Section 4 : Next Steps
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Section 5 : Next Steps
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Market Testing Concepts
The next step recommended is to market test the product concepts for the Tarkine. These concepts are the actual appeals (products and features) of the Tarkine aligned with each segment identified. In this manner it can be determined from real consumers the actual appeals of the Tarkine to each segment. This in turn will provide crucial guidance to which areas to develop and in what order. At this stage the conversion ratios applied in the models are assumptions based on comparative data from the Visitor Surveys - one of the key tasks of the Concept testing is to gather the actual conversion ratios (Step 3) from prospective consumers based on information presented to them about the Tarkine experience. The tasks involved in this testing process are as follows :Task 1 : Develop the concept brief - this outlines the probable appeals for each segment based on the information available to date (see next pages for concept briefs per segment). Task 2 : Develop the concepts (see next pages for method, requirements). Task 3 : Test concepts with a selection of consumers from each segment. The method that EMDA uses to test the product concepts is a semi-quantified methodology, where both quantitative data and qualitative responses are gathered from the segments. This is an efficient market research process. The key output of this stage is to determine the actual economic value (via the model developed), which appeals work best and identification of any conversion barriers. This information could also form the basis for an Investor Prospectus promoting the area and also a Management Plan for the area.
Note : it maybe necessary to determine the environmental constraints of the products/experiences/accommodation prior to market testing. This avoids for example testing a product or experience that in actual fact cannot be delivered because of environmental issues.
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Section 5 : Next Steps
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Nature Enthusiasts - Concept Brief Positioning : A must see pristine wilderness area to experience before you die
Attractions and Experiences : World class natural areas with a range of unique iconic natural areas to experience, including coastal areas (this ideally would be beaches like Whitehaven, Wineglass Bay, Bay of Fires and/or unique coastal scenery like extraordinary cliffs. Visible signs of human activity must be minimal - this especially includes logging and other forestry related activities. High quality bushwalks must also be offered with range of lengths from a few hours to a few days. Typically these would traverse unique areas - ie unique rainforest, areas of natural beauty and/or to natural attractions like waterfalls and/or spectacular views. Food : Indications are that as part of a Nature Enthusiasts holiday eating and places to eat are important but not 5 star standard, more good quality (natural) at reasonable prices would be appropriate - also the options of some self catering. Access : Indications are these people want easy access (ie sealed roads) to be able to access the areas they are interested in, quickly. Shared roads with logging trucks would be unappealing to this group. Some unsealed access would also appeal, once in the Tarkine. Accommodation : A range of accommodation options would appeal to this group. This would range from quality camping areas (ie not degraded, polluted waterways, sheltered from the elements, wet weather contingency). Eco Lodges for example like the YHA at the Grampians (lower yield), more moderately priced eco friendly cabins and lodges.
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Section 5 : Next Steps
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Younger Nature Enjoyers - Concept Brief Positioning : A must see pristine wilderness area to experience - that's new.
Attractions and Experiences : World class natural areas with a range of unique iconic natural areas to experience, including coastal areas ideally would be beaches. Visible signs of human activity must be minimal - this especially includes forestry related activities. This group are likely to be concerned about the other people in the region - they would like to see other like minded people (younger) - definitely not older lower. Activities - this could range from more adventurous such as rock climbing, mountain biking and also include high quality bushwalks with a range of lengths from a few hours to a few days. Typically these would traverse pristine areas - ie unique rainforest, areas of natural beauty to natural attractions like waterfalls and or spectacular views. For this group indications are that these should be more challenging walks. The broader appeal of the regional will be important to this group ie attractions such as Cradle Mountain and the Franklin would appeal as part of the overall trip. Food : Indications are that as part of their holiday eating and places to eat are important especially to the couples, more good quality (natural) at reasonable prices restaurants, but also meals at the pub. Access : Indications are these people want easy access (ie sealed roads) to be able to access the areas they are interested in quickly. Shared roads with logging trucks would be unappealing to this group. Some unsealed access would also appeal, once in the Tarkine. Accommodation : A range of accommodation options would appeal to this group. This would range from quality camping areas (ie not degraded, polluted waterways, sheltered from the elements, wet weather contingency). Eco Lodges for example like the YHA at the Grampians (lower yield), more moderately priced eco friendly cabins and lodges.
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Section 5 : Next Steps
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Family Nature Enjoyers - Concept Brief
Positioning : A must see pristine wilderness area to experience for the whole family. This is likely to be the most challenging group for the Tarkine with the demands of catering all family members. Attractions and Experiences : World class natural areas with a range of unique and relatively easily accessed iconic natural areas to experience, including coastal areas or unique coastal scenery like extraordinary cliffs. Visible signs of human activity must be minimal - this especially includes logging and other forestry related activities. This group however, is also concerned about safety therefore reassuring road signage will useful in guiding them. A range of activities for the whole family must be offered. This can include the shorter interesting bushwalks, views but making this attractive to children is challenging. Opportunities to see and interact with animals would assist. The broader appeal of the regional will be important to this group - especially family related activities - ie nature parks with animals, not wineries for example. Food : For this group catering to the whole family is a must - eating places would need to represent good value and have meals suitable for children at times that suit them (ie early dinners). Access : Indications are these people want easy access (ie sealed roads) to be able to access the areas they are interested in quickly. Shared roads with logging trucks would be very unappealing to this group (raises concerns about safety). Unsealed access would have a very limited appeal. Accommodation : A range of lower to medium priced family friendly facilities would need to be available. This means family rooms and adequate facilities in camping areas for children.
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Section 5 : Next Steps
EMDA
Older Affluent Nature Enjoyers - Concept Brief
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Positioning : A must see world class, pristine wilderness area to experience. Attractions and Experiences : World class natural areas with a range of unique iconic natural areas to experience, including coastal areas or for unique coastal scenery like extraordinary cliffs. Visible signs of human activity must be minimal - this especially includes logging and other forestry related activities. High quality bushwalks must also be offered, but at a maximum these should be a few hours.Typically these would traverse natural areas but not be too difficult - ie unique rainforest, areas of natural beauty to natural attractions like waterfalls and or spectacular views. The broader appeal of the region will be important to this group. This would include Cradle Mountain, the Franklin, Strahan and activities such as wineries. Food : Indications are that as part of a nature enthusiasts holiday eating and places to eat are more important, than the other segments - with better quality food and wines offered. Access : Indications are these people want easy access (ie sealed roads) to be able to access the areas they are interested in quickly. Shared roads with logging trucks would be unappealing to this group. Accommodation : A range of better quality accommodation options would appeal to this group. This would range from four star Eco cabins, to better quality apartment and motel accommodation.
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Section 5 : Next Steps
EMDA
Lower Older Nature Enjoyers - Concept Brief
Economic and Market Development Advisers
Positioning : A must see Australian pristine wilderness area to experience. Attractions and Experiences : Easy to access appealing natural areas with a range of unique iconic natural areas to experience, including coastal areas or unique coastal scenery like extraordinary cliffs. Some easy but high quality bushwalks lasting typically less than hour. Walks would need to cater for people with walking impairments. Feeling safe is a key need for this group as well. Places where they can drive and see easily, spectacular natural attractions also appeal. Opportunities to interact with other like minded older groups also appeals. Food : For this group generally they have simple tastes - therefore good quality pub and club type meals appeal to this group the most. Eating places such as clubs, where they can enjoy reasonable food at affordable prices with the opportunity to interact with others appeals the most. Access : Indications are these people want easy access (ie sealed roads) to be able to access the areas they are interested in safely. Shared roads with logging trucks would be unappealing to this group. Unsealed roads with the prospect of danger would be avoided. Accommodation : This segment are the three to three and half star motels bread and butter - they have moderate expectations of quality and service but also price. Camping will have limited appeal as will youth hostels and expensive eco lodges.
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Section 5 : Next Steps
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Concept Development
In order to gather the most realistic responses from the segments to the concepts, a realistic interpretation of the concept briefs will need to be shown to each segment identified. In this case this could include using story boards (pictures with some commentary) that show each of the features and benefits for each product concept. Video footage could also be used. As an indication, the material presented to the groups would include following : Tarkine attractions : Pictures and descriptions of each possible attraction, including methods for accessing the attractions in the local area. Prices if applicable would also need to be shown. Food : Description of the range of eating options, from restaurants through to self catering. Accommodation : Pictures and prices of possible accommodation options and locations. Access to the Tarkine Area : Descriptions and costs of methods of access such as flying to Launceston/Hobart, car hire, road quality, approximate time and costs Regional attractions : this would involve presenting pictures, descriptions of nearby attraction of significance (ie Strahan, Cradle Mountain etc). In developing the materials it is very important that the demographic and attitudinal differences are taken into account - ie younger segments are not shown images with much older people in them. Where there are concept alternatives - as in the case of types of accommodation - these alternatives would need to be presented to the focus groups - to gather their response to determine which is best.
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Section 5 : Next Steps
EMDA Economic and Market Development Advisers
Concept Development - Stimulus material
In order to gather the most realistic responses from the segments to the concepts, a realistic interpretation of the concepts will need to be shown to each segment tested. In this case this would include using story boards (pictures with some commentary) that show each of the features and benefits for each concept. Video footage could also be used. This would include the following : Tarkine attractions : Pictures and descriptions of each possible attraction, including methods for accessing the attractions in the local area. Prices if applicable would also need to be shown. Food : Description of the range of eating options, from restaurants through to self catering. Accommodation : Pictures and prices of possible accommodation options and locations. Access to the Tarkine Area : Descriptions and costs of methods of access such as flying to Launceston/Hobart, car hire, road quality, approximate time and costs Regional attractions : this would involve presenting pictures, descriptions of nearby attraction of significance (ie Strahan, Cradle Mountain etc). Where there are alternatives - as in the case of types of restaurant - these alternatives would need to be presented to the focus groups - to gather their response to determine which is best.
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Disclaimer While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the data in this report, EMDA has not audited the data sources and therefore does not accept any responsibility in relation to financial and/or decisions based on this information.
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