Crain’s Detroit Business/MiBiz Economic Outlook Survey

Page 1

EPIC ▪ MRA - Crain’s Detroit/MiBiz Subscribers [FREQUENCY REPORT of SURVEY RESPONSES – TOTAL 400 SAMPLE – ERROR ±4.9%] [“CRAINS” – 200 SAMPLE – ERROR ±6.9%] [“MiBiz” – 200 SAMPLE – ERROR ±6.9%] Conducted by live callers – November 16th, 2015 through November 18th, 2015 SAMPLE: _______________________________ DATE: ____________/____________/__________ PHONE: ________________________________ COUNTY: ________________________________ INTERVIEWER: ____________________________________________________________________ ========================================================================== Hello, this is (NAME) from EPIC ▪ MRA, a Lansing based survey research firm. We’re conducting a random survey of business owners, operators, officers or managers in the southeast/western Michigan area about a variety of issues affecting businesses. This survey has been jointly commissioned by Mi Biz and Crain’s Detroit Business. We are not trying to sell anything, you will not be asked for a donation, and you will not be called again for participating in this survey. We are strictly doing issue research about business related issues and I’d like to take few minutes of your time to include your opinions about your business. ========================================================================== INTRO -- We need to speak to an owner, operator or manager of your business who is available either right now or some other time today. We will be asking several general questions about the economy, state government and the outlook for your business in the coming months. Is the owner, operator, officer or manager of your business available to be interviewed right now? [IF NOT AVAILABLE, ASK] Is there a time I can call back when I could speak to an owner, operator, officer or manager? IF NEW PERSON COMES TO PHONE, REPEAT INTRO AND CONTINUE IF NO ONE AVAILABLE NOW OR FOR A CALL-BACK – THANK AND TERMINATE __01. Do you think that, in general, Michigan’s economy will improve in the next year, get worse, or remain about the same? TOT 57% 35% 6% 2%

CRAINS MIBIZ 62% 52% Improve 31% 39% Remain about the same 5% 7% Get worse 2% 2% Undecided/Refused


2 __02. Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President -- would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor? TOT 8% 22% 30% 65% 21% 44% 5%

CRAINS MIBIZ 11% 5% Excellent 25% 18% Pretty Good 36% 23% TOTAL POSITIVE 59% 72% TOTAL NEGATIVE 18% 25% Just Fair 41% 47% Poor 5% 5% Undecided/Refused

__03. Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Rick Snyder as Michigan’s Governor – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor? TOT 19% 52% 71% 26% 21% 5% 3%

CRAINS MIBIZ 22% 17% Excellent 46% 56% Pretty Good 68% 73% TOTAL POSITIVE 29% 23% TOTAL NEGATIVE 23% 19% Just Fair 6% 4% Poor 3% 4% Undecided/Refused

__04. And how would rate the job the Michigan State House of Representatives and the Michigan State Senate is doing in performing their role as a legislature -- would you give them a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor? TOT --24% 24% 66% 36% 30% 10%

CRAINS MIBIZ ----Excellent 20% 28% Pretty Good 20% 28% TOTAL POSITIVE 71% 60% TOTAL NEGATIVE 37% 34% Just Fair 34% 26% Poor 9% 12% Undecided/Refused

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


3 __05. Overall, how satisfied are you with the condition of the Michigan economy right now as it affects your business -- very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? TOT 15% 65% 80% 19% 14% 5% 1%

CRAINS MIBIZ 17% 12% Very satisfied 63% 67% Somewhat satisfied 80% 79% TOTAL SATISFIED 19% 20% TOTAL DISSATISFIED 13% 15% Somewhat dissatisfied 6% 5% Very dissatisfied 1% 1% Undecided/Refused

___06. Do you think that your personal or family financial situation is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? TOT 53% 35% 11% 1%

CRAINS MIBIZ 52% 54% Staying about the same 37% 34% Getting better 10% 11% Getting worse 1% 1% Undecided/Refused

__07. Based on your experience with previous economic cycles, when do you anticipate the next downturn for your industry will likely occur? Will it be . . . [READ 1 THROUGH 4] TOT CRAINS MIBIZ 13% 10% 15% Within the next year 12% 10% 14% Sometime between 13 and 18 months from now; 22% 25% 20% From 19 months to 2 years from now; or Do you not anticipate a downturn in your in industry in the foreseeable 38% 40% 36% future. 15% 15% 15% Cannot predict/Undecided/Refused __08. Thinking specifically about your business in the next year, do you think that the prospects for your business will improve, get worse, or remain about the same? TOT 48% 45% 6% 1%

CRAINS MIBIZ 54% 42% Improve 41% 49% Remain about the same 3% 8% Get worse 2% 1% Undecided/Refused

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


4 9A-B. What would you say are the top one or two biggest concerns that you have about your business? [WRITE COMMENTS AS STATED – PROBE FOR UP TO TWO RESPONSES] TOT 12% 12% 10% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% ------3%

CRAINS 13% 12% 10% 5% 5% 5% 6% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% ------------1% 1% --12%

MIBIZ 10% 12% 10% 6% 6% 5% 2% 5% 4% 2% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% --1% --2% --1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% ----1% 7%

Talent Gap-Finding Qualified Employees Economy Lack of Customers Health Care-Costs Competition Taxes Lack of Funding Government Regulation Rising Costs State Government None-Nothing-No Concerns Advertising-Marketing Cash Flow Retaining Employees Client Non-payment Growth Interest Rates Roads-Infrastructure Education Employee Wages Housing Market Making a Profit Manufacturing Next Presidential Election Stock Market Technology Unemployment Federal Government Foreign Imports Getting Loans-Financing Global Affairs Product Availability Value of US Dollar Safety-Security Terrorism Survival Other (at less than 1% each)/Undecided/Refused

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


5 ___10. Next year, do you plan to hire more employees, maintain the number of employees you currently have, or, do you expect that your company’s workforce will be reduced – either through not filling open positions or having to lay off some of your employees? [IF “workforce will be reduced” PROBE BY ASKING: “Would that be through not filling open positions or having to lay off some employees?” AND CODE BEST RESPONSE] TOT 35% 52% 3% 3% 7%

CRAINS MIBIZ 33% 37% Plans to hire more employees ----------------- ASK Q. 11 50% 54% Will maintain number of employees -- GO TO Q. 14 3% 3% Won’t fill open positions ------------------------------ GO TO Q. 13 4% 2% May/Will lay off employees -------------------------- GO TO Q. 13 10% 4% Undecided/Refused ---------------------- GO TO Q. 14

___11. How many employees do you expect to hire next year? [WRITE IN NUMBER – IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED, CODE ‘999999’] TOT N=132 MEAN: 10.242

MEDIAN: 3.0

CRAINS N= 61 MEAN: 11.967

MEDIAN: 5.0

MIBIZ N=71 MEAN: 8.761

MEDIAN: 2.0

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


6 __12. There has been a great deal of recent discussion about a “talent gap” in our state. The “talent gap” is generally described as being a lack of enough job applicants with adequate skills, education and/or experience to fill an increasing number of available jobs. Thinking about your company’s plans for hiring in the coming year, would you say that the “talent gap” will be a bigger problem than it has traditionally been in filling positions, about the same as it always has been or, is the “talent gap” a smaller problem in filling positions today than it traditionally has been during past periods of hiring need? [IF BIGGER/SMALLER PROBLEM, ASK: “Would that be much or somewhat?” AND CODE BEST RESPONSE] TOT CRAINS MIBIZ N=140 N=65 N=75 16% 12% 20% Much Bigger problem 29% 33% 25% Somewhat Bigger problem 45% 45% 45% TOTAL BIGGER PROBLEM 36% 32% 40% About the same 13% 17% 10% TOTAL SMALLER PROBLEM 9% 11% 7% Somewhat Smaller problem 4% 6% 3% Much Smaller problem 6% 6% 5% Undecided/Refused

POLLERS NOTE: ALL Q.12 RESPONDENTS GO TO Q.14 ___13. In the next year, how many positions do you expect will become vacant due to non-replacement and/or layoffs? [WRITE IN NUMBER – IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED, CODE ‘999999’] TOT N=20 MEAN: 11.300

MEDIAN: 3.5

CRAINS N= 11 MEAN: 13.000

MEDIAN: 3.0

MIBIZ N= 9 MEAN: 9.222

MEDIAN: 5.0

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


7 ___14. In the coming year, do you plan to increase wages for your employees, decrease wages or leave wages unchanged? TOT 49% 1% 37% 13%

CRAINS MIBIZ 45% 53% Increase wages -----------------ASK Q. 15 --1% Reduce wages ----------------------- GO TO Q. 16 36% 38% Leave wages unchanged ----------- GO TO Q. 16 19% 8% Undecided/Refused ----------------------- GO TO Q. 17

___15. Thinking about the wage increases planned for your employees in the coming year, what do estimate the average percentage increase will be – rounded to the nearest whole percent? [WRITE IN NUMBER – IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED, CODE ‘999’] TOT N=173 MEAN: 4.399%

MEDIAN: 3.0%

CRAINS N= 77 MEAN: 4.221%

MEDIAN: 3.0%

MIBIZ N= 96 MEAN: 4.542%

MEDIAN: 4.0%

POLLERS NOTE: ALL Q.15 RESPONDENTS GO TO Q.17

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


8 16. Usually, employers who do not plan to raise wages or plan to reduce compensation report the reason for this decision is the business cannot afford it. Whether or not this is the general reason your company is not planning on increasing employee wages in the coming year, can you identify a major specific reason preventing an increase in employee wages? [WRITE COMMENT AS STATED] TOT CRAINS N=149 N=72 21% 24% 17% 21% 7% 8% 5% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 1% 3% 1% 3% --2% 4% 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% --1% --1% --1% --1% --1% --12% 11%

MIBIZ N=77 18% 14% 7% 5% 7% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 7% ----1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 11%

Simply Cannot Afford No Increase in Business to Justify It None-Nothing-No Reason Already Well Paid Recently Raised Wages Staying Competitive Sole Employee Under Contract-Union Performance Based Bonus-Profit Sharing Instead Government Regulation Health Care Cost Increases Lack of Funding Commission Based Pay Business Taxes Going Through a Company Overhaul Cash Flow No Control Over Wages Rising Costs Salary Caps Stockholder Profit Comes 1st Will in 2 Years Other (at less than 1% each)/Undecided/Refused

___17. Based on your experience with your business, are Michigan business taxes assessed against your company too high, too low, or about right? [IF TOO HIGH, ASK: ‘Would that be much too high or somewhat too high’ AND CODE BEST RESPONSE] TOT 15% 23% 38% 2% 43% 17%

CRAINS MIBIZ 14% 17% Much too high 24% 21% Somewhat too high 38% 38% TOTAL TOO HIGH 3% 1% Too low 43% 44% About right 16% 17% Undecided/Refused

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


9 __18. Putting aside your assessment of the state’s business tax structure as it affects your company, OVERALL, would you give Michigan’s business tax climate a Positive rating of Excellent or Pretty Good or, a Negative rating of Just Fair or Poor? TOT 2% 39% 41% 48% 37% 11% 11%

CRAINS MIBIZ 3% 1% Excellent 42% 36% Pretty Good 45% 37% TOTAL POSITIVE 42% 54% TOTAL NEGATIVE 31% 43% Just Fair 11% 11% Poor 13% 9% Undecided/Refused

__19. The Michigan Economic Development Corporation – or MEDC – was formed in 1999 and is funded by annual appropriations from the state’s general fund and payments made from compact agreements made with six tribal casinos. The MEDC’s core mission includes business attraction and retention; community development; and, marketing the state on a national and global level. For fiscal year 2016, the MEDC has seen reductions in both the state and tribal funding sources, resulting in a 27% reduction in its budget for this year, and the elimination of 65 staff positions. Based on this information and whatever else you may know or have heard or read about the Michigan Economic Development Corporation, do you think these cuts will have a . . . [READ 1 THROUGH 4] TOT CRAINS MIBIZ 12%

12%

12%

24% 35%

22% 36%

26% 33%

15%

14%

17%

14%

16%

12%

Major Negative impact on the state’s overall economic development future; An Important, but not a major impact; Only a minor impact; or, Will the budget cuts to MEDC Have No Impact At All on the overall future economic development of the state? Undecided/Refused

__20. What are the chances that within the next year, the company where you are currently working will be involved in a merger or acquisition . . . Are the chances of such a deal [READ 1 THROUGH 4] TOT CRAINS MIBIZ 3% 4% 2% Certain to Happen 4% 4% 4% Likely to Happen 7% 6% 8% The chances are about 50/50 59% 61% 57% Unlikely to Happen, or, ------------------------------------------- GO TO Q. 23 Will a merger or acquisition involving your company Not Happen At All in 25% 24% 27% the next year - GO TO Q. 23 2% 1% 2% Undecided/Refused ------------------------------------------------ GO TO Q. 23

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


10 __21. If the merger or acquisition goes through, would your company be better described as being the buyer or the seller in the deal? TOT N=57 51% 44% 3% 2%

CRAINS MIBIZ N=29 N=28 59% 43% The Buyer 38% 50% The Seller ----------------------- GO TO Q. 23 3% 4% Neither (volunteered) --------- GO TO Q. 23 --3% Undecided/Refused ------------ GO TO Q. 23

__22. As a buyer, would your company be looking within Michigan only or, would the market as a buyer not limit itself to companies only located in the state? TOT N=29 28% 69% 3%

CRAINS MIBIZ N=17 N=12 29% 25% Michigan Only 65% 75% Anywhere 6% --Undecided/Refused

Turning back to state issues . . . __23. Nearly four years after calling on the legislature to develop a plan to direct $1.2 billion in funding to address Michigan’s transportation infrastructure needs, Governor Snyder just signed into law a package of bills that will eventually dedicate a total of $1.2 billion in new and existing tax revenue to repairing and replacing the state’s roads and bridges. The package is split between $600 million in increased gas tax and vehicle registration fees and shifting $600 million in existing general fund dollars. The increases in the gasoline tax and vehicle registration fees are slated to begin calendar year 2017 and the shifting of existing general fund dollars to pay for roads is not scheduled until fiscal year 2019. Based on this description and whatever else you may have read or heard about the transportation package, do you Approve or Disapprove of the road funding package passed by the legislature and signed into law by the Governor? [IF APPROVE/DISAPPROVE; ASK: “Would that be Strongly or Somewhat?” AND CODE BEST RESPONSE] TOT CRAINS MIBIZ 19% 20% 18% Strongly Approve -------------------- GO TO Q. 25 35% 34% 37% Somewhat Approve ------------------ GO TO Q. 25 54% 54% 55% TOTAL APPROVE 35% 34% 36% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 13% 10% 16% Somewhat Disapprove 22% 24% 20% Strongly Disapprove 11% 12% 9% Undecided/Refused ------------------- GO TO Q. 25

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


11 24A-B. What are the one or two primary reasons you disapprove of the road funding package? [WRITE COMMENTS AS STATED – PROBE FOR UP TO TWO RESPONSES] TOT CRAINS N=139 N=67 23% 25% 12% 16% 10% 12% 10% 6% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 9% 5% 5% 4% 2% 3% --2% 2% 2% --1% 1% --------3% 2%

MIBIZ N=72 22% 9% 9% 14% 8% 5% 6% 1% 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1%

Tax-Fee Increases Too Long to Take Effect Wasteful Spending Against the General Fund Shift Existing Funds are There-Make Cuts Distrust the Legislature Still Won’t be Enough Money to Fix the Roads Too Little Too Late Will Hurt the Economy-Business Too Complex-Complicated Public Already Voted NO A Tax on Trucking They Will Cut Education Funding Prefer a Sales Tax Increase Federal Government Should Fund Need Toll Roads Other (at less than 1% each)/Undecided/Refused

Now, I would like to ask some questions about your business for statistical purposes only. __25. Do you work for a company that sells a product or provides a service? TOT 14% 61% 23% 2%

CRAINS 13% 63% 21% 3%

MIBIZ 16% 60% 24% ---

Sells a product Provides a service Both (volunteered) Undecided/Refused

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


12 __26. What would you say is the gross dollar amount that your business generates per year? [IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED, CODE ‘999999999’] TOT MEAN: $76,522,828.50

MEDIAN: $2,000,000.00

CRAINS MEAN: $89,219,345.10

MEDIAN: $3,000,000.00

MIBIZ MEAN: $65,302,651.10

MEDIAN: $1,500,000.00

__27. How many employees do you have working in your business? [IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED, CODE ‘999999’] TOT MEAN: 4747.631

MEDIAN: 10.0

CRAINS MEAN: 7321.215

MEDIAN: 12.0

MIBIZ MEAN: 2201.426

MEDIAN: 10.0

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


13 __28. What type of business or industry do you operate? [DO NOT READ – CODE BEST RESPONSE OR WRITE IN UNDER OTHER] TOT 16% 15% 12% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3%

CRAINS 14% 13% 13% 9% 8% 6% 6% 7% 5% 5% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 5%

MIBIZ 18% 19% 11% 7% 6% 6% 6% 2% 4% 3% 5% 5% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1%

Manufacturing or manufacturing supplier Business services Professional services Construction Finance Real Estate Retail Health care Public service Non-profit Education Distribution/trucking Food service Telecommunications Hospitality Personal services Undecided/Refused

__29. As I mentioned earlier, this survey has been commissioned by Crain’s Detroit Business and Mi Biz. We are asking every participant if they are willing to authorize the release of their phone number for a possible follow-up contact by a reporter. Would you be willing to have your phone number released, or would you prefer that we NOT release it. TOT 21% 79% ---

CRAINS 22% 78% ---

MIBIZ 20% Yes, release my phone number 80% No, do not release phone number -------------GO TO Q.32 --Undecided/Refused------------------------------GO TO Q.32

30. Could you please tell me your first name so the reporter will know who participated in the survey from your business? List provided directly to client __31. In addition to providing the names of people who would be willing to talk to reporters, would you be willing to also authorize us to release how you responded to survey questions, or, would you prefer that we only release your phone number for a possible interview and not release information about how you responded to survey questions? TOT CRAINS MIBIZ 55% 54% 56% Release information about how respondent answered questions 45% 46% 44% DO NOT release information

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


14 __ 32. Sex of respondent (BY OBSERVATION ONLY) TOT CRAINS MIBIZ 65% 64% 66% Male 35% 36% 34% Female THANK RESPONDENT FOR HIS OR HER TIME AND TERMINATE

Crain’s/MiBiz - November 2015 Frequency of Survey Responses


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.