Aviation Investment Banking Q3 2022 Update
OUR TEAM
Aviation Investment Banking
James S. Cassel Chairman jcassel@cs-ib.com 305-438-7701
Scott E. Salpeter President ssalpeter@cs-ib.com 305-438-7702
Joseph “Joey” Smith Director, Aviation Services jsmith@cs-ib.com 305-438-7706
Relevant Experience:
Relevant Experience:
Relevant Experience:
Investment banking for over 26 years
Investment banking for over 26 years
Investment banking for over 22 years
Representative Assignments:
Representative Assignments:
Representative Assignments:
Bankruptcy §363 Sale
Airlines
Valuation
MRO
Capital Raise
Aviation Services
Bankruptcy §363 Sale
Airlines
Valuation
MRO
Capital Raise
Distribution
M&A Sale
MRO
Solvency Opinion
Freight & Logistics
Capital Raise
Distribution
Valuation
MRO
M&A Sale
Part 121 Carrier
Philip Cassel Managing Director
Marcus Wai Vice President
Ira Leiderman Managing Director
Chris Mansueto Vice President
Deborah Aghib Managing Director
Edward Kropf Associate
Margery Fischbein Managing Director
Tahz Rashid Associate
Laura Salpeter Director
Charles Davis Francisco Belliard Associate Analyst Includes projects by our professionals at prior firms.
2
Aviation Investment Banking
I II III
DISCUSSION: FLYING INTO THE FUTURE M&A & PRIVATE PLACEMENTS REVIEW PUBLIC MARKETS REVIEW
3
AVIATION HISTORY – FROM 30,000 FEET
Aviation Investment Banking
Aviation began in the 18th century with the development of the hot air balloon, a lighter-than-air aircraft capable of short flights. Some of the most significant advancements in aviation technology came with Otto Lilienthal’s controllable gliders in the late 19th century. A large step forward came with the construction of the first powered airplane by the Wright brothers in 1903. The 20th century witnessed an explosion in the development of powered flight as technological improvements led to the introduction of the jet engine, which has transformed air travel into a major form of global transport. In a little over a century, the industry has gone from learning to fly to learning to fly faster, further, and with much heavier planes; today, over 100,000 commercial flights take off and land around the world each day. At any given time, there is an average of over 10,000 planes carrying over 1,200,000 passengers in the sky; this density of commercial travel is paired with the military, cargo, and private jet sectors, adding significant volume to the already crowded global skies.
Aviation has been at the forefront of innovation, becoming one of the safest and most reliable modes of transportation in the world today, all while having a tremendous impact on the social and economic development and sustainability of regions. Aviation provides the only rapid worldwide transportation network, generating economic growth, creating jobs, and facilitating international trade and tourism. Fresh capital and new ideas are shaping the future of aviation. With alternate travel modes and the growing prominence of sophisticated new technologies, the aviation industry is in a dynamic and innovative state. Composites and new design technologies are reshaping airframes, while engines have become lighter, quieter, and more efficient. Emerging technologies are reshaping the industry with innovations in robotics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, unmanned and autonomous flight systems, and the push for hybrid and electric airplanes. Innovation is allowing flight to move beyond mobility between continents and regions to enable mobility within regions and even cities. The future of the aviation industry may be closer to “The Jetsons” than we ever imagined. Sharing and leveraging technology and best practices from aviation and other modes of transportation will help ensure the success and sustainability of the emerging mobility/air taxi/last mile sector. Sources of information: DOT, IATA.
4
IMPROVEMENTS IN FULL VIEW
Aviation Investment Banking
The airline industry's financial performance continues to improve through 2022 as the COVID-19 pandemic ceases to disrupt the travel sector and the overall economy. Industry optimism and commitment to emissions reductions are evident in the expected net delivery of over 1,200 aircraft in 2022. Strong pent-up demand, the lifting of travel restrictions in most markets, low unemployment in most countries, and expanded personal savings are fueling a resurgence in demand that will see passenger numbers reach 83% of pre-pandemic levels in 2022. Revenues are rising as travel demand returns; the challenge in 2022 has become keeping costs under control. Industry revenues are expected to reach $782 billion, a more than 50% improvement over 2021. Nearly 34 million flights are expected to operate in 2022, a volume that would reach 87% of 2019 levels. Despite economic challenges, cargo volumes are expected to reach a record high of 68 million tons in 2022. IATA updated the industry losses for 2021 to $42 billion, an improvement over the $52 billion shortfall previously envisioned, and far lower than the record $138 billion loss suffered by the industry in 2020, when COVID-19 first grounded flights worldwide. Industry losses for 2022 are expected to come in at approximately $9.7 billion, much lower than the losses previously projected for 2022 of $11.6 billion. Financial performance in all regions is expected to improve in 2022 compared to 2021, but North America is expected to be the only region to return to profitability this year. Supported by the large U.S. domestic market and the reopening of international markets, including the North Atlantic, net profit is forecast to be $8.8 billion in 2022. Revenue passenger kilometers is expected to reach 95% of pre-crisis levels, and seat capacity an astounding 99.5% of pre-crisis levels. Sources of information: DOT, IATA, TravelTomorrow.com.
5
ON THE GROUND RISK FACTORS
Aviation Investment Banking
Geopolitics – The War in Ukraine The impact of the war in Ukraine on aviation pales in comparison to the unfolding humanitarian tragedy. Despite the war not escalating far beyond Ukraine’s borders, there are many negative impacts to the aviation ecosystem, including rising fuel costs and a dampening of consumer demand. The war in Ukraine is keeping prices for Brent crude oil high, which is exacerbated by the additional high spread between crude and jet fuel prices, due mostly to capacity constraints at refineries, which remains at risk into 2023. The war has reduced available routes for passenger markets with many operators (mostly long-haul routes). The effect has been much higher costs for rerouting those carriers. The greatest impact has fallen on the specialized area of heavy-weight cargo where Russia and Ukraine were the market leaders (20% of traffic passed through Russian airspace in 2021).
Inflation & Interest Rates Interest rates are rising as central banks combat inflation. Inflation is harmful and has the economic dampening effect of a tax by reducing purchasing power. There is downside risk to the pending recovery should inflation continue to rise, and as central banks continue to hike interest rates, driving a slowdown in the overall economy. COVID-19 The underlying demand for travel is strong. But government responses to COVID-19 ignored World Health Organization advice that border closures are not an effective means of controlling the spread of the virus. The potential for a growing “herd immunity” to COVID could provide relief from future costly border closures. China’s domestic market accounted for about 10% of global traffic in 2019. A prolonged implementation of China’s zeroCOVID policy will continue to depress the world’s second largest market and wreak havoc with global supply chains. Sources of information: IATA, PitchBook, TravelTomorrow.com.
6
NEXT GENERATION BIRDS
Aviation Investment Banking
The Airbus/Boeing duopoly has promised newly redesigned and fuel-efficient planes in the near future. The Airbus A321XLR made its first successful flight in June 2022 and is expected to debut by 2024. Boeing’s 777X has been hampered by delays, with the FAA having pushed back certification until late 2023, and Boeing anticipates its first deliveries will be in 2025. Longer, Faster, Smoother
A Jumbo-Sized Challenge
The single-aisle Airbus A321XLR is the latest iteration of Airbus’ popular A320 family, and it’s a game changer. With a range of 8,700 kilometers, no other narrow-body commercial aircraft will even come close.
Boeing’s 777X is being touted as the ideal replacement for the much-loved 747. In a typical configuration, the twinengine giant carries 426 passengers, about the same as a Boeing 747, in a three-class configuration.
The A321XLR will allow airlines to operate narrow-body aircraft on long-distance, lower demand routes where a twinaisle aircraft may not be economical.
Crucially, its engines burn less fuel and the 777X’s range of 15,185 kilometers makes it the ideal candidate for airlines looking for an aircraft to fly busy intercontinental routes.
The long-established order of the Airbus/Boeing duopoly may be challenged in the future by the upstart, growing Chinese state-owned commercial aircraft manufacturer, The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (“COMAC”). Despite having delivered few birds to date, and with the presence of sanctions limiting much of the supply chain and competition between global manufacturers, COMAC and other Chinese players’ impact should be watched closely in the coming years. Sources of information: Airbus, Boeing.
7
FUTURE TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION
Aviation Investment Banking
Though the aviation industry is not a pioneer in the digital revolution, it is quickly reacting to the latest wave of technological innovation and trends to stay abreast of the demands and expectations of modern passengers. The most promising and transformative technologies in the aviation industry for the next decade include: Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) – AI is being used to deliver a personalized traveling experience to passengers in order to predict and address their needs and generate maximum customer satisfaction. Automation – As machines are becoming smarter, pilotless planes are soon becoming a reality. Even today, planes utilizing AI and machine learning can perform a significant portion of flights on autopilot mode, with pilots taking over during takeoff and landing. Biometrics – Biometric technologies such as facial recognition, fingerprint authentication, and retinal scanning will become the default mode of verification. With the integration of biometric systems into processes for border control, airport check-ins, on boarding, migration processing, and the baggage claim process, the entire verification process will become increasingly seamless and painless. Big Data – The shift towards the democratization and analysis of enormous volumes of data is empowering the sector to make new data-driven strategic decisions. Coupled with AI and machine learning, big data is helping the industry forecast consumer demand and behavior to fine-tune their strategies and better allocate resources. As we move into a future with advanced planes and automated flights, the success of the new technologies will be dependent on the abilities of the existing workforce to upgrade their skill sets and adapt. From pilots to engineers, air traffic controllers, and safety inspectors, everyone in the industry will need to upgrade their digital capabilities to remain relevant. Although new technologies are evolving rapidly and the industry is moving forward to embrace them, successful adoption will fall flat without effective implementation. Extensive and meticulous testing and training is critical. It is more important than ever that the aviation industry approach these new technologies thoughtfully, deliberately, and with an open mind. Sources of information: Cigniti Tech, IATA.
8
Aviation Investment Banking
I
DISCUSSION: FLYING INTO THE FUTURE
II
M&A & PRIVATE PLACEMENTS REVIEW
III
PUBLIC MARKETS REVIEW
9
M&A TRANSACTIONS
Aviation Investment Banking Selected Transactions Review
($ in millions)
Transaction Date Closed
Enterprise Anncd.
Target
Acquirer
Metrics
Valuation Benchmarks
Target Trailing Twelve Months (TTM)
Implied Enterprise Value (EV) /
Value
Revenue
EBITDA %
EBIT %
Revenue
EBITDA
EBIT
2022 3rd Quarter M&A Transactions 16-Sep-22
23-May-22
Aircraft Wheel and Brake Division of ParkerHannifin Corporation
Kaman Corporation
$
441.3
$
70.0
40.0%
na
6.30x
15.76x
16.3x
1,599.2
860.1
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
8,419.0
2,011.6
13.7%
na
4.41x
64.8
na
na
na
na
na
na
15-Sep-22
27-Sep-21
Industria de Turbo Propulsores, S.A.
Bain Capital Private Equity, LP; Sapa Placencia S.L.; JB Capital Markets
na
15-Sep-22
Sequa Corporation
Veritas Capital Fund Management, L.L.C
12-Sep-22
2-Aug-21
Meggitt PLC
Parker-Hannifin Corporation
8-Sep-22
5-Jul-22
NanoAvionika, LLC
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA
8-Sep-22
28-Dec-21
Giga-tronics Incorporated
Gresham Worldwide, Inc. (nka:Giga-tronics Incorporated)
na
10.3
na
147.3%
na
na
na
2-Sep-22
12-Sep-22
NuSpace, Inc.
PCX Aerostructures, LLC
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
22-Aug-22
Trac Precision Machining Limited
RCapital Partners LLP
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
10-Aug-22
11-Aug-22
Sensor Systems, Inc.
Electronic Technologies Group, Inc.
163.1
na
na
na
na
na
na
9-Aug-22
9-Aug-22
ARINC Incorporated
Mirion Technologies, Inc.
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
5-Aug-22
E3 Federal Solutions, LLC
AE Industrial Partners
590.0
298.0
11.9%
na
1.98x
3-Aug-22
3-Aug-22
Intrepid Solutions and Services, LLC
CIS Secure Computing, Inc.
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
2-Aug-22
8-Aug-22
Carbon Fiber Marine Products Division Of Fiberdyne Aerospace
MarQuipt Inc
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
1-Aug-22
22-Mar-22
DRS Global Enterprise Solutions, Inc.
SES Government Solutions, Inc.
450.0
na
na
na
na
na
na
1-Aug-22
23-Jul-21
Ultra Electronics Holdings plc
Cobham Limited
3,174.4
1,171.0
14.9%
na
3.04x
na
25-Jul-22
OneWeb
Eutelsat Communications S.A.
2,865.2
22.1
na
na
133.12x
na
na
21-Jul-22
18-Jul-22
Northern Space & Security Ltd.
Raytheon Company
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
15-Jul-22
ZONA Technology, Inc.
Siemens Product Lifecycle Management Software Inc.
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
5-Jul-22
7-Mar-22
Vectrus, Inc.
V2X, Inc.
na
1,783.7
na
na
na
na
na
2-Feb-22
Stuart, Florida Aerostructures Business of Triumph Daher Aerospace Group, Inc.
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
1-Jul-22
30.59x
16.62x
18.18x
61.9x
18.4x
22.8x
Mean
$
1,974.1
$
778.3
20.1%
147.3%
29.77x
20.29x
29.9x
Median
$
590.0
$
579.0
14.3%
147.3%
4.41x
17.40x
20.6x
Sources of Information: S&P Capital IQ and Pitchbook.
10
SELECTED PRIVATE PLACEMENTS
Aviation Investment Banking Selected Private Placements Review
($ in millions)
Anncd. Date
Target
Investors
Round Type
Round Number
15.5
Series B
4
Raise
2022 3rd Quarter Private Placements 28-Sep-22
Firehawk Aerospace Inc.
Raytheon Technologies Corporation; i2E Management Company, Inc.; Capital Factory; Goff Capital, Inc.; Echo Investments B.V.; Cathexis Capital LLC; Hemisphere Ventures, LLC; Victorum Capital
16-Sep-22
Intuitive Machines, LLC
CF Principal Investments, LLC
50.0
PIPE
2
16-Sep-22
Intuitive Machines, LLC
Undisclosed
26.0
Growth
1
14-Sep-22
Morpheus Space GmbH
In-Q-Tel, Inc.; Lavrock Ventures, LLC; Morpheus Ventures; Techstars Ventures; Airbus Ventures; Pallas Ventures; Vsquared Ventures Management GmbH; Alpine Space Ventures GP GmbH
5.4
Series A
3
7-Sep-22
H2 Clipper, Inc.
Undisclosed
2.0
Growth
1
1-Sep-22
Eve Holding, Inc.
United Airlines Ventures
15.0
PIPE
2
18-Aug-22
Outpost Technologies Corporation
Shasta Ventures Management, LLC; Draper Associates, L.P.; Moonshots Capital Management Company, LLC; Starburst Ventures; Starburst Ventures; AirCapital Avaition Services LLC
7.1
Seed
1
8-Aug-22
ATLAS Space Operations, Inc.
Mitsui & Co., Ltd.; Beringea, LLC; Wakestream Ventures; Northern Michigan Angels; Rise of the Rest; Grand Ventures; Boomerang Catapult, LLC; VCapital Management Company LLC
26.0
Series B
4
5-Aug-22
Vertical Aerospace Ltd.
Nomura Securities International, Inc.
4.2
PIPE
6
4-Aug-22
LiveEO GmbH
MMC Ventures Limited; Dieter von Holtzbrinck Ventures GmbH; Motu Ventures Management GmbH; Hannover Digital Investments GmbH; Helen Ventures; Segenia Capital Management GmbH
8.0
Venture
4
2-Aug-22
Astra Space, Inc.
B. Riley Principal Capital II, LLC
99.9
PIPE
5
1-Aug-22
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
Undisclosed
0.8
Debt
5
28-Jul-22
Slingshot Aerospace, Inc.
Undisclosed
39.7
Series A
6
20-Jul-22
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
Undisclosed
1.5
Growth
24
20-Jul-22
Vertical Aerospace Ltd.
Avolon Holdings Limited
6.5
Growth
5
5-Jul-22
Terran Orbital Corporation
Undisclosed
na
PIPE
5
Mean Median
$
$ $
20.5 8.0
Sources of information: S&P Capital IQ and Pitchbook.
11
Aviation Investment Banking
I
DISCUSSION: FLYING INTO THE FUTURE
II
M&A & PRIVATE PLACEMENTS REVIEW
III
PUBLIC MARKETS REVIEW
12
SELECTED MARKET INDICES
Aviation Investment Banking Relative Trading Performance
Last Three Months - Jun 30, 2022 to Sep 30, 2022 (Chart 1)
Indices Chart 1
Chart 2
_________ -5.3% - - - - - - - -4.1% ----
-16.8% -23.1%
Nasdaq US Aerospace
_________ -8.8% …............. -10.7%
DJ U.S. A&D
- - - - - - - -8.3% ----
-8.1%
130 S&P 500 120
NASDAQ Composite S&P A&D Select Industry
110
-26.8% -22.3%
100
90
80
70 Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
1 Year - Sep 30, 2021 to Sep 30, 2022 (Chart 2) 120
110
100
90
80
70
60 Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Sources of information: S&P Capital IQ.
13
SELECTED PUBLIC COMPANY TRADING DATA
Aviation Investment Banking
Selected Companies Review ($ in thousands, except per security)
Market Statistics Company
Ticker
Metrics
Closing Price
% of 52-week
Enterprise
Revenue
EBITDA
30-Sep-22
High-Low
Value
LTM
LTM
Valuation Benchmarks
EBITDA
EBITDA
LTM Margin 2023 E Growth
EV / Revenue LTM
2022 E
EV / EBITDA LTM
2022 E
Airlines Alaska Air Group, Inc. Allegiant Travel Company
ALK ALGT
$ $
39.15 72.98
61.4% - 102.5% 35.4% - 100.0%
American Airlines Group Inc. Delta Air Lines, Inc. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Hawaiian Holdings, Inc.
AAL DAL ULCC HA
$ $ $ $
12.04 28.06 9.70 13.15
53.9% 60.6% 55.4% 54.2%
- 101.6% - 100.9% - 118.4% - 103.1%
40,167.1 40,810.6 4,181.6 1,353.4
JetBlue Airways Corporation Mesa Air Group, Inc. SkyWest, Inc.
JBLU MESA SKYW
$ $ $
6.63 1.65 16.26
39.8% - 101.7% 18.0% - 103.1% 30.7% - 102.7%
Southwest Airlines Co. Spirit Airlines, Inc. Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
LUV SAVE SNCY UAL
$ $ $ $
30.84 18.82 13.61 32.53
54.7% 66.5% 37.1% 59.7%
Mean Median
$
5,619.8 2,190.5
$
8,191.0 2,086.3
$
892.0 228.6
10.9% 11.0%
8.9% 69.7%
0.69x 1.05x
0.58x 0.96x
6.3x 9.6x
3.8x 7.0x
40,717.0 41,796.0 2,753.0 2,172.7
930.0 3,436.0 (245.0) (393.3)
2.3% 8.2% -8.9% -18.1%
45.3% 37.2% 81.5% 530.5%
0.99x 0.98x 1.52x 0.62x
0.84x 0.84x 1.25x 0.52x
43.2x 11.9x na na
9.5x 7.4x 7.8x 22.4x
4,298.2 678.9 3,347.6
7,986.0 536.2 3,056.2
(22.0) 52.2 610.6
-0.3% 9.7% 20.0%
141.6% 35.0% 2.5%
0.54x 1.27x 1.10x
0.47x 1.31x 1.09x
na 13.0x 5.5x
8.7x 6.6x 4.6x
- 100.2% - 118.2% - 100.0% - 106.5%
13,868.9 5,944.0 1,153.3 29,974.0
21,152.0 4,244.1 791.8 35,620.0
2,346.0 (134.1) 119.0 1,553.0
11.1% -3.2% 15.0% 4.4%
24.6% 113.3% 91.0% 49.6%
0.66x 1.40x 1.46x 0.84x
0.58x 1.17x 1.31x 0.68x
5.9x na 9.7x 19.3x
3.9x 14.1x 9.6x 6.9x
48.3% - 104.5% 54.2% - 102.5%
$ 11,814.5 $ 4,298.2
$ 13,161.7 $ 4,244.1
$ $
721.0 228.6
4.8% 8.2%
94.7% 49.6%
1.01x 0.99x
0.89x 0.84x
13.8x 9.7x
8.6x 7.4x
67.8% 76.6% 86.9% 69.8%
$
$
$
158.8 88.1 555.8 618.9
8.8% 19.5% 26.4% 12.7%
20.7% 7.1% 14.5% 16.6%
0.75x 1.68x 8.51x 1.81x
0.74x 1.71x 7.83x 1.70x
8.6x 8.6x 32.3x 14.2x
8.0x 8.7x 29.6x 10.1x
722.9 (0.9) 76.9
12.1% -1.1% 8.7%
11.7% na 13.9%
1.98x 0.87x 0.89x
1.90x na 0.83x
16.4x na 10.2x
14.3x na 8.8x
317.2 158.8
12.4% 12.1%
14.1% 14.2%
2.36x 1.68x
2.45x 1.70x
15.1x 12.2x
13.2x 9.5x
MRO, Parts & Supply Chain AAR Corp. AerSale Corporation HEICO Corporation MTU Aero Engines AG
AIR ASLE HEI XTRA:MTX
$ $ $ $
35.82 18.54 143.98 151.26
Singapore Technologies (ST Aerospace) TAT Technologies Ltd. VSE Corporation
SGX:S63 TATT VSEC
$ $ $
2.49 5.97 35.40
Mean Median
- 112.3% - 145.1% - 113.4% - 103.4%
84.8% - 102.3% 85.3% - 113.7% 54.1% - 111.1% 75.0% - 114.5% 76.6% - 112.3%
1,363.6 758.6 17,946.2 8,781.4 11,859.5 68.6 785.7
$ $
5,937.7 1,363.6
1,811.2 452.5 2,108.1 4,864.1 5,974.7 78.8 883.7
$ $
2,310.4 1,811.2
$ $
Market value equals price per share times number of diluted shares outstanding. Enterprise value equals market value plus debt, preferred stock, and non controlling interests, less cash. Sources of information: S&P Capital IQ.
14
SELECTED PUBLIC COMPANY TRADING DATA
Aviation Investment Banking
Selected Companies Review ($ in thousands, except per security)
Market Statistics Company
Ticker
Metrics
Closing Price
% of 52-week
Enterprise
Revenue
EBITDA
30-Sep-22
High-Low
Value
LTM
LTM
Valuation Benchmarks
EBITDA
EBITDA
LTM Margin 2023 E Growth
EV / Revenue LTM
2022 E
EV / EBITDA LTM
2022 E
Aerostructures & Component Manufacturers Air Industries Group ATI Inc.
AIRI ATI
$ $
6.60 26.61
Astronics Corporation CPI Aerostructures, Inc. Hexcel Corporation Honeywell International Inc.
ATRO CVU HXL HON
$ $ $ $
7.86 1.21 51.72 166.97
Howmet Aerospace Inc. Ducommun Incorporated FACC AG
HWM DCO WBAG:FACC
$ $ $
Héroux-Devtek Inc. Innovative Solutions and Support, Inc. JAMCO Corporation Kaman Corporation
TSX:HRX ISSC TSE:7408 KAMN
Latécoère S.A. Lisi S.A. Magellan Aerospace Corporation
50.8% - 103.8% 79.9% - 192.1% 52.6% 35.1% 78.6% 73.1%
$
48.7 5,329.1
$
55.8 3,284.7
$
5.2 452.9
9.3% 13.8%
29.7% 9.9%
0.87x 1.62x
0.84x 1.42x
9.4x 11.8x
8.3x 9.4x
- 100.3% - 140.7% - 110.6% - 100.2%
397.7 44.1 5,063.2 125,130.7
473.2 89.3 1,477.7 34,459.0
(11.5) 2.8 273.4 8,375.0
-2.4% 3.2% 18.5% 24.3%
313.5% na 26.1% 8.7%
0.84x 0.49x 3.43x 3.63x
0.73x na 3.18x 3.51x
na 15.6x 18.5x 14.9x
29.5x na 16.2x 14.0x
30.93 39.66 5.95
79.3% - 112.8% 68.2% - 102.0% 63.5% - 103.8%
16,665.0 735.5 479.9
5,285.0 665.7 551.4
1,194.0 75.4 12.0
22.6% 11.3% 2.2%
17.6% 13.8% 25.0%
3.15x 1.10x 0.87x
2.94x 1.05x 0.89x
14.0x 9.7x 39.9x
12.9x 7.6x 9.6x
$ $ $ $
8.92 8.63 9.19 27.93
63.1% 87.2% 83.4% 60.1%
- 106.3% - 149.6% - 197.3% - 100.7%
415.3 134.6 543.8 908.9
406.8 27.4 262.3 673.8
48.7 7.2 (5.9) 100.0
12.0% 26.2% -2.2% 14.8%
22.9% na na 17.8%
1.02x 4.92x 2.07x 1.35x
1.09x na na 1.28x
8.5x 18.8x na 9.1x
8.3x na na 9.9x
ENXTPA:LAT ENXTPA:FII TSX:MAL
$ $ $
0.35 17.57 5.03
63.6% - 112.5% 58.0% - 104.9% 62.9% - 102.5%
357.7 1,234.8 330.9
461.0 1,358.6 562.7
(39.1) 151.0 23.7
-8.5% 11.1% 4.2%
-879.5% 25.4% 46.6%
0.78x 0.91x 0.59x
0.77x 0.91x 0.58x
na 8.2x 14.0x
na 6.6x 9.4x
Moog Inc. Moog Inc.
MOG.A MOG.A
$ $
70.35 70.35
78.2% - 103.8% 78.2% - 103.8%
3,124.0 3,124.0
2,992.1 2,992.1
337.7 337.7
11.3% 11.3%
10.3% 10.3%
1.04x 1.04x
1.02x 1.02x
9.3x 9.3x
8.3x 8.3x
Senior plc SIFCO Industries, Inc. Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. Triumph Group, Inc.
LSE:SNR SIF SPR TGI
$ $ $ $
1.30 3.07 21.92 8.59
66.2% 33.6% 41.1% 30.8%
- 105.1% - 108.9% - 101.4% - 100.1%
703.1 51.1 5,388.9 2,013.5
884.7 89.6 4,482.7 1,412.7
73.0 (2.9) 63.5 157.8
8.3% -3.3% 1.4% 11.2%
23.2% na 149.2% 20.4%
0.79x 0.57x 1.20x 1.43x
0.79x na 1.05x 1.50x
9.6x na 84.9x 12.8x
8.5x na 19.2x 12.2x
TransDigm Group Incorporated Woodward, Inc.
TDG WWD
$ $
524.82 80.26
76.5% - 104.9% 62.2% - 101.3%
44,562.4 5,573.4
5,198.0 2,313.0
2,368.0 345.7
45.6% 14.9%
11.3% 16.2%
8.57x 2.41x
7.93x 2.31x
18.8x 16.1x
16.2x 14.8x
Mean
63.6% - 115.4%
$
9,265.0
$
2,935.8
$
597.7
10.9%
-4.1%
1.86x
1.74x
17.7x
12.1x
Median
63.5% - 104.4%
$
822.2
$
779.3
$
74.2
11.2%
19.1%
1.07x
1.05x
13.4x
9.6x
Market value equals price per share times number of diluted shares outstanding. Enterprise value equals market value plus debt, preferred stock, and non controlling interests, less cash. Sources of information: S&P Capital IQ.
15
SELECTED PUBLIC COMPANY TRADING DATA
Aviation Investment Banking
Selected Companies Review ($ in thousands, except per security)
Market Statistics Company
Ticker
Metrics
Closing Price
% of 52-week
Enterprise
Revenue
EBITDA
30-Sep-22
High-Low
Value
LTM
LTM
Valuation Benchmarks
EBITDA
EBITDA
LTM Margin 2023 E Growth
EV / Revenue LTM
2022 E
EV / EBITDA LTM
2022 E
Aviation Services Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. AerCap Holdings N.V. Air T, Inc. Air Lease Corporation Air Transport Services Group, Inc. Blade Air Mobility, Inc. CAE Inc. Gogo Inc. Maxar Technologies Inc. Wheels Up Experience Inc.
AAWW AER AIRT AL ATSG BLDE TSX:CAE GOGO MAXR UP
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
95.57 42.33 17.12 31.01 24.09 4.03 15.43 12.12 18.72 1.15
- 162.8% - 113.8% - 122.2% - 104.2% - 103.3% - 104.8% - 100.9% - 104.8% - 106.9% - 101.8%
$
4,380.1 57,039.9 200.5 20,762.2 3,158.5 67.2 7,168.1 2,183.5 3,799.1 (26.7)
$
4,396.2 5,868.9 191.0 2,276.0 1,943.9 138.5 2,757.6 370.1 1,748.0 1,398.2
$
1,017.3 2,724.6 12.0 na 625.2 (48.7) 406.2 145.6 423.0 (277.7)
23.1% 46.4% 6.3% na 32.2% -35.1% 14.7% 39.4% 24.2% -19.9%
-3.3% 27.3% na 74.9% 8.7% -4.7% 33.8% 13.3% 15.3% -44.0%
1.00x 9.72x 1.05x 9.12x 1.62x 0.48x 2.60x 5.90x 2.17x -0.02x
0.92x 8.17x na 8.73x 1.51x 0.50x 2.55x 5.47x 2.10x -0.02x
4.3x 20.9x 16.8x na 5.1x na 17.6x 15.0x 9.0x na
4.4x 11.9x na 14.5x 4.9x na 12.2x 13.7x 8.1x na
53.2% - 112.5% 51.5% - 104.8%
$ $
9,873.2 3,478.8
$ $
2,108.8 1,845.9
$ $
558.6 406.2
14.6% 23.1%
13.5% 13.3%
3.37x 1.90x
3.33x 2.10x
12.7x 15.0x
10.0x 11.9x
29.2% 4.5% 50.6% 42.4% 21.5% 11.6% 14.0% 24.0% 11.1% 18.5%
- 100.0% - 101.9% - 149.2% - 119.9% - 126.0% - 101.5% - 103.9% - 115.3% - 103.8% - 100.0%
$
4.8 (30.0) 469.4 1,509.0 445.3 34.1 238.5 1,560.3 166.3 596.8
na
$
(319.5) (244.5) (109.9) (318.9) (336.0) (92.7) (51.3) (119.5) (56.9) (355.6)
na -3707.8% -599.7% na na -37088.0% -35.8% -92.7% -91.8% -10468.9%
38.7% -36.6% -38.1% 3.2% 14.3% na na -56.3% -80.8% -17.2%
na -4.55x 25.61x na na 136.54x 1.66x 12.10x 2.68x 175.70x
na -3.73x 34.37x na na 8.74x 1.43x 6.84x 2.04x 490.64x
na na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na na na
Mean
22.7% - 112.1%
$
499.4
$
51.8
$
(200.5)
-7440.7%
-21.6%
49.96x
77.19x
na
na
Median
20.0% - 103.9%
$
341.9
$
18.3
$
(182.0)
-599.7%
-26.9%
12.10x
6.84x
na
na
Mean Median
94.0% 59.3% 51.9% 60.8% 69.7% 34.8% 49.9% 51.2% 46.2% 14.2%
Next Gen & Space Tech Archer Aviation Inc. Astra Space, Inc. AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Joby Aviation, Inc. Lilium N.V. Momentus Inc. Redwire Corporation Rocket Lab USA, Inc. Spire Global, Inc. Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.
ACHR ASTR ASTS JOBY LILM MNTS RDW RKLB SPIR SPCE
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2.61 0.61 7.22 4.33 2.28 1.37 2.38 4.07 1.08 4.71
6.6 18.3 na na 0.3 143.4 128.9 62.0 3.4
Market value equals price per share times number of diluted shares outstanding. Enterprise value equals market value plus debt, preferred stock, and non controlling interests, less cash. Sources of information: S&P Capital IQ.
16
SELECTED PUBLIC COMPANY TRADING DATA
Aviation Investment Banking
Selected Companies Review ($ in thousands, except per security)
Market Statistics Company
Metrics
Valuation Benchmarks
Closing Price
% of 52-week
Enterprise
Revenue
EBITDA
30-Sep-22
High-Low
Value
LTM
LTM
- 102.4% - 107.1% - 125.8% - 142.9% - 108.4% - 103.3% - 108.0% - 107.0% - 102.0%
$ 66,096.1 117,803.9 3,514.1 3,094.5 86,891.6 12,490.3 39,994.2 14,697.8
$ 54,695.8 60,743.0 6,023.0 7,599.3 3,902.5 74,559.0 14,167.3 17,977.2 12,467.0
$
6,824.2 119.0 432.0 736.0 221.3 7,827.0 1,239.4 3,311.7 1,481.0
12.5% 0.2% 7.2% 9.7% 5.7% 10.5% 8.7% 18.4% 11.9%
23.5% 101.5% 30.9% 10.7% 28.0% 30.9% 26.1% 24.0% 8.6%
1.21x 1.94x 0.00x 0.46x 0.79x 1.17x 0.88x 2.22x 1.18x
1.14x 1.68x 0.00x 0.58x 0.63x 1.16x 0.96x 2.22x 1.12x
9.7x 989.9x 0.0x 4.8x 14.0x 11.1x 10.1x 12.1x 9.9x
8.6x 27.7x 0.0x 5.7x 6.9x 9.9x 8.9x 11.8x 9.3x
Mean Median
59.1% - 111.9% 53.3% - 107.1%
$ 38,286.9 $ 14,697.8
$ 28,014.9 $ 14,167.3
$ $
2,465.7 1,239.4
9.4% 9.7%
31.6% 26.1%
1.09x 1.17x
1.05x 1.12x
118.0x 10.1x
9.9x 8.9x
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
73.1% 91.0% 83.5% 82.7% 53.9% 91.0% 43.2% 74.3% 66.7% 80.5% 56.2% 91.2% 77.2% 86.2%
$
$
453.2 24,206.8 5,514.0 38,441.0 36.5 10,253.0 832.6 16,817.0 15,017.8 64,167.0 988.2 34,957.0 65,287.0 17,540.8
$
58.3 2,591.9 532.2 5,280.0 0.1 1,095.0 50.8 3,517.0 1,462.5 7,152.0 163.9 8,757.0 11,269.0 2,116.6
12.9% 10.7% 9.7% 13.7% 0.3% 10.7% 6.1% 20.9% 9.7% 11.1% 16.6% 25.1% 17.3% 12.1%
24.9% 7.1% 13.1% 11.0% na 6.6% 27.2% 6.4% 10.2% 5.0% 16.3% 5.4% 15.5% 11.7%
4.84x 1.36x 1.75x 1.80x 0.66x 1.15x 1.85x 2.82x 0.59x 1.75x 2.85x 2.45x 2.30x 1.40x
4.54x 1.31x 1.76x 1.76x na 1.09x 1.70x 2.74x 0.61x 1.72x 2.82x 2.36x 2.22x 1.44x
37.6x 12.7x 18.1x 13.1x 205.3x 10.7x 30.3x 13.5x 6.1x 15.7x 17.2x 9.8x 13.3x 11.6x
26.3x 9.7x 16.7x 13.5x na 12.2x 18.6x 12.7x 5.4x 11.5x 14.5x 17.4x 12.3x 9.2x
$ 21,036.6 $ 15,917.4
$ $
3,146.2 1,789.5
12.6% 11.6%
12.3% 11.0%
1.97x 1.78x
2.00x 1.76x
29.6x 13.4x
13.8x 12.7x
Ticker
EBITDA
EBITDA
LTM Margin 2023 E Growth
EV / Revenue LTM
2022 E
EV / EBITDA LTM
2022 E
Airframe & Engine OEM Airbus SE The Boeing Company Bombardier Inc. Dassault Aviation Société anonyme Embraer S.A. General Electric Company Rolls-Royce Holdings plc Safran SA Textron Inc.
ENXTPA:AIR BA TSX:BBD.A ENXTPA:AM BOVESPA:EMBR3 GE LSE:RR. ENXTPA:SAF TXT
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
87.16 121.08 19.67 114.73 2.15 61.91 0.78 92.18 58.26
73.4% 51.8% 46.4% 70.4% 43.8% 53.3% 43.0% 76.4% 73.3%
Defense Contractors AeroVironment, Inc. BAE Systems plc Elbit Systems Ltd. General Dynamics Corporation Herkules S.A. Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. L3Harris Technologies, Inc. Leonardo S.p.a. Lockheed Martin Corporation Mercury Systems, Inc. Northrop Grumman Corporation Raytheon Technologies Corporation Thales S.A.
AVAV LSE:BA. TASE:ESLT GD HRS HII KTOS LHX BIT:LDO LMT MRCY NOC RTX ENXTPA:HO
83.36 8.69 189.59 210.99 0.21 221.50 10.16 207.83 7.13 386.29 40.60 470.32 81.86 110.81
Mean Median
- 160.2% - 150.7% - 146.8% - 111.8% - 113.7% - 126.2% - 100.3% - 103.5% - 126.3% - 119.1% - 100.3% - 136.0% - 103.6% - 160.2%
75.0% - 125.6% 78.8% - 122.7%
2,191.9 32,980.6 9,658.2 69,271.6 24.1 11,756.4 1,539.1 47,439.0 8,896.5 112,294.6 2,812.8 85,746.8 150,397.4 24,516.2
$ 39,966.1 $ 18,136.3
Market value equals price per share times number of diluted shares outstanding. Enterprise value equals market value plus debt, preferred stock, and non controlling interests, less cash. Sources of information: S&P Capital IQ.
17
CONTACT INFORMATION
Aviation Investment Banking
James S. Cassel
Scott E. Salpeter
Joseph “Joey” Smith
Chairman
President
Director, Aviation Services
jcassel@cs-ib.com
ssalpeter@cs-ib.com
jsmith@cs-ib.com
305-438-7701
305-438-7702
305-438-7706
801 Brickell Ave. Suite 1900 Miami, Florida 33131 www.casselsalpeter.com
The information and discussion within this report was prepared by Cassel Salpeter & Co., LLC (“CS”) and are meant to provide general information regarding the subject matter. The information has been obtained from sources that are considered reliable, but CS makes no guarantee or representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. This report reflects information known at the time the report was written and is subject to change. The discussion reflects the author's current judgement as of the date of this report and does not necessarily reflect the judgements of CS, and furthermore, are subject to change without notice. CS has no obligation to update, modify, or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, estimate, forecast, or analysis set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. This report does not constitute investment advice with respect to the securities of any company discussed herein, is not intended to provide information upon which to base an investment decision and should not be construed as such. Professional advice should be obtained before taking any action based on any information or discussion contained herein.
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