Justice Reinvestment: The Challenges Ahead Dr. Tony Fabelo
Austin, Texas Texas Association of Counties, August 2007 1
POLICIES MAIN DRIVER OF DEMAND FOR PRISON BEDS JUSTICE REINVESTMENT POLICIES MAY REDUCE DEMAND CHALLENGE IS TO IMPLEMENT AND SUSTAIN PROGRAM INFRASTRUCTURE
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Projected Prison Bed Shortfall at Beginning of Legislative Session in January 2007 Projected TDCJ Population and Capacity 2007-2012, January 2007 LBB Projection
170,000
Population
165,000
168,166 164,592
162,298 159,492
160,000 155,000
13,758
157,029 153,849 6,195
11,464
17,332 Bed Shortfall 26% Parole Rate
8,658
3,015
150,000
Operational Capacity
150,834
145,000
150,834
140,000 2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Legislative Budget Board, June 06 and January 07, Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections
2011
2012
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Prison Population Expansion Has Outpaced State Population Growth
TDCJ Population, 1985-2006 180,000
691
160,000 140,000
152,894 TDCJ Population
120,000 100,000 80,000
Incarceration Rate per 100,000
60,000
226
40,000 20,000
37,281
State Resident Population 1980-2005: +61% TDCJ Population 1985-2006: +310% Incarceration Rate 1985-2006: +205%
0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Sources: CJPC tables 1985-1998; LBB tables, 1998 to 2006
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Prison System Operating with Critical Correctional Officer Shortages Correctional Officers Approved Positions
26,311
Positions Filled as of July 2007
22,647
Vacancies
3,664 (14%)
32 prison units operating with higher than average vacancy rates
Source: LBB data sheets, July 07
Overtime produces the equivalent of about 600 FTEs annually
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Correctional Officer Vacancies Have Increased with the Expansion of the TDCJ Population TDCJ Population
Vacancies
154,000
4,000
152,000
3,500
150,000
3,000
148,000
2,500
146,000
2,000
144,000
1,500
142,000
1,000
140,000
500
138,000
0 Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept. July 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
3% vacancy rate
14% vacancy rate 6
Source: LBB data sheets, July 07
Policies Are Main Driver of Prison Population Growth
Low parole rates
Shortage of probation and parole alternative sanctions and prison treatment programs Drug Addicts
Mentally Ill Persons
Unemployed Persons
Poor service delivery systems for prevention and re-entry services and failing schools in high stakes neighborhoods
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Low Parole Approval Rates a Key Policy Driving Growth
88,000 inmates are eligible for discretionary release in prison or 66% of the prison population
Parole Approval Rates, 1990-2006
78% “Revolving Door”
55% of those eligible have a “non-violent” offense of record 31% Minimum under Guidelines
17%
26%
20 06
20 04
20 02
20 00
19 98
19 96
19 94
“Shut Down”
19 92
19 90
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
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Lack of Probation Alternative Programs to Reduce Revocation Another Key Factor
Parole Revocations
Probation Revocations
19%
Technical
9%
54%
New Conviction New Offense Pending or Alleged
72%
ISF Beds = 1,793 1 per 42 parolees
18%
28%
ISF Beds = 439 1 per 544 probationers
Source: Board of Pardons and Parole Annual Report; TDCJ, CJAD Statistical tables
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50% of Former Prisoners Return to Neighborhoods That Account for Only 15% of the City’s Adult Population
Acres Homes
Trinity Houston Gardens
East Little York Homestead
Ten of Houston’s 88 Neighborhoods Account for Almost $100 million a Year in Prison Expenditures
El Dorado Oates Prairie
Kashmere Area Greater Fifth Ward
OST - South Union
Sunnyside
South Acres – Crestmont Park
South Park
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POLICIES MAIN DRIVER OF DEMAND FOR PRISON BEDS JUSTICE REINVESTMENT POLICIES MAY REDUCE DEMAND CHALLENGE IS TO IMPLEMENT AND SUSTAIN PROGRAM INFRASTRUCTURE
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Whitmire/Madden Plan Adds Capacity to Alternative Sanction System
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Program and Alternative Capacity (cont.) Probation Programs
Institutional Programs
Parole & Re-entry Programs
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Cost of Plan in Comparison with Original TDCJ Request TDCJ Request
Whitmire/Madden Plan
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Overall Plan Produced Savings of Millions of Dollars TDCJ Request
Whitmire/Madden Plan
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Additional Attempt at Addressing Early Interventions with New Resources SB 156 by Shapiro and Madden $5.8 million in FY 09 to intervene with 2,000 families in high risk neighborhoods
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Plan Eliminates Backlog Assuming Effective Implementation Projected Prison Backlog Under Different Policy Scenarios, LBB Projections
Status Quo, January Projection
17,332 13,758
15,000 11,464
10,405
8,658
10,000 6,195
5,000
Adopted Whitmire/Madden Plan
4,415 1,168
8,399
8,145 6,300
TDCJ Request for Appropriations Scenario
0
0
0
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
0 2008 Source: Legislative Budget Board
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POLICIES MAIN DRIVER OF DEMAND FOR PRISON BEDS JUSTICE REINVESTMENT POLICIES MAY REDUCE DEMAND CHALLENGE IS TO IMPLEMENT AND SUSTAIN PROGRAM INFRASTRUCTURE
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Need Strategy to Promote Program Effectiveness Oversight to Identify Infrastructure Weaknesses
Invest in Strengthening Program Development and Accountability
Explosion of Program Resources Quickly Measure Early Effectiveness Indicators
Hold Administrator Accountable for Best Practices
Target Funding Enhancements in Key Program Areas 19
Challenge of Program Implementation in a Nutshell 1. Program protocols effectively identify “swingers”
2. Program protocols effectively mix “treatment” “control” and “incentives”
Some Do OK Some “Swingers” Some NOT Do OK “No Matter What” “It Matters What” “No Matter What” May Do OK
3. Program infrastructure and staff meets quality indicators
May Not Do OK
4. Community collaboration and partners reduce barriers to success 20
Travis County Probation Reform http://www.co.travis.tx.us/community_supervision/TCIS_Initiative.asp
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Two Year Methodical Reform Process
“Conditions of Supervision”
“Differential Supervision” (Based on Classification Profiles)
Diagnosis (Pre-sentenced or intake)
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Thank You www.justicecenter.csg.org
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