Q1-2021 | Industrial Marketbeat | Belgium

Page 1

M A R K E T B E AT

BELGIUM Industrial Q1 2021 YoY Chg

12-Mo. Forecast

51 (L) 260 (SI) Take-up (YTD) (000s sq m)

Overview Economic growth has been severely hit in 2020 (-8%). due to higher unemployment, subdued external demand and a limited fiscal response. It should observe a strong rebound in 2021 (around 3.5%) and remain positive, though at a gradually decelerating rate up to 2023. The unemployment rate will continue to rise in 2021 as a direct consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak. As from 2022, situation is expected to improve with new job creations (close to 46,000 in 2022 and 47,000 in 2023).

Occupier focus

58 (L) 63 (SI)

Semi-industrial take-up amounted to more than 260,000 sq m over 246 deals, demand during the first quarter of the year was higher compared to the five-year average. With the equivalent of more than one third of last years take-up already on the books, the sector continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of the challenges posed by the global pandemic and constantly shrinking supply. Demand for logistics spaces in Q1 totaled more than 50,000 sq m across only nine deals. This represents a 24% decrease compared to the end of last year and a traditional slow start to the year in a sector which often end on a strong note in Q4, as was the case in 2020. Additionally, the demand increasingly corresponds to smaller, last-mile type facilities in addition to the usual big box warehouses. This represents a growing concern in terms of supply shortage due to e-commerce properly taking root in Belgium, particularly since individuals’ behaviour towards retail has changed significantly in the past year. Prime rents are stable at EUR 63/sq m/year (semiindustrial) and EUR 58/sq m/year (logistics).

Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)

4.50 (L) 6.00 (SI) Prime yield (%, 3/6/9 lease) L: logistics SI: semi-industrial

ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q1 2021 YoY Chg

Investment focus 12-Mo. Forecast

3.5% 2021 GDP Growth

7.4%

Upwards of EUR 45 million have been invested in industrial markets over Q1, although significant logistics investments were uncharacteristically absent. Indeed, semi-industrial investments dominated as a lack of supply in the face of strong demand is good news for owners or would-be sellers. A EUR 19 million acquisition by Exeter Property Group from Leasinvest in Zaventem was a highlight. Substantial logistics investments are however in the pipeline for the rest of the year and investor appetite certainly has not been affected. Prime yields underwent sharp decreases, to 6.00% for semi-industrial and 4.50% for logistics on the back of sustained investor interest, including from overseas. Additionally, the long-term prime logistics yield amounts to 4.25%, with numerous such assets having been traded of late.

Unemployment Rate

Outlook

1.7% Consumer Price Index

We expect sustained demand strong this year. Investor appetite will continue to grow over 2021. Prime yields will continue to sharpen, and even prime rents may increase as a result. INVESTMENT VOLUME PER TYPE, EUR M

TAKE-UP, SQ M 2,500,000

Source: National Bank of Belgium, and Eurostat April 2021

2,000,000

800

50

600

40

1,500,000

30 400

1,000,000

20 200

500,000 0

10

0 2017

2018 Logistics

2019 Semi-industrial

2020

Q1 2021

0 2017 Logistics

2018

2019 Semi-industrial

2020

Q1 2021 # deals (RHS)


M A R K E T B E AT

BELGIUM Industrial Q1 2021 MARKET STATISTICS

REGION

BUILT STOCK (SQ M)

Q1 2021 TAKE-UP (SQ M)

PRIME RENT (EUR/SQ M/YEAR)

PRIME YIELD (%)

LT PRIME YIELD (%)

Flanders

19,235,000 (L) 9,643,000 (SI)

21,000 (L) 175,000 (SI)

48 (L) 63 (SI)

4.50 (L) 6.00 (SI)

4.25 (L)

Brussels (incl. Brabants)

2,345,000 (L) 3,170,000 (SI)

2,000 (L) 46,000 (SI)

58 (L) 57 (SI)

4.50 (L) 6.00 (SI)

4.25 (L)

Wallonia

3,544,000 (L) 2,399,000 (SI)

28,000 (L) 39,000 (SI)

43 (L) 45 (SI)

4.60 (L) 6.40 (SI)

4.40 (L)

L: logistics SI: semi-industrial

KEY OCCUPIER TRANSACTIONS Q1 2021 PROPERTY

BUILDING TYPE

MARKET

TENANT

SIZE (SQ M)

TRANSACTION TYPE

Newpharma DC

Logistics

Van den Braembussche – Ottergemsesteenweg Zuid

Liège

Newpharma

20,000

Development

Semi-industrial

East Flanders

Van den Braembussche

13,000

Development

Waaslandlaan 14

Semi-industrial

Scheldeland

Vavato

12,000

Purchase

Rue Béjar 2-6

Semi-industrial

Brussels

NNCO

11,500

Purchase

Canal Logistics Centre

Logistics

Mechelen-Willebroek

Carrefour

8,000

Letting

*Renegotiations not included in leasing statistics

KEY INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS Q1 2021 PROPERTY

SUBMARKET

BUYER / SELLER

SQ M

PRICE, EUR M

Brixton Business Park

Flemish Brabant

Exeter Property Group / Leasinvest

19,000

18.75

Technologielaan 3/5

Flemish Brabant

WDP / Private

11,000

9.40

Boomsesteenweg 65

Antwerp

Debrico / Beerens Group

7,500

7.20

Antwerp

Van Mossel Automotive Group / FICO

2,400

3.65

Walloon Brabant

Private Family Office / VK Concept

4,000

3.50

Boomsesteenweg 37 Phoenix Business Parc

SHANE O’NEILL Senior Research Analyst +32 2 510 08 33 shane.oneill@cushwake.com CÉDRIC VAN MEERBEECK Head of Research & Marketing | Belgium & Luxembourg +32 2 629 02 86 cedric.vanmeerbeeck@cushwake.com A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION ©2021 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.

cushmanwakefield.com


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.