M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM Industrial Q1 2021 YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
51 (L) 260 (SI) Take-up (YTD) (000s sq m)
Overview Economic growth has been severely hit in 2020 (-8%). due to higher unemployment, subdued external demand and a limited fiscal response. It should observe a strong rebound in 2021 (around 3.5%) and remain positive, though at a gradually decelerating rate up to 2023. The unemployment rate will continue to rise in 2021 as a direct consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak. As from 2022, situation is expected to improve with new job creations (close to 46,000 in 2022 and 47,000 in 2023).
Occupier focus
58 (L) 63 (SI)
Semi-industrial take-up amounted to more than 260,000 sq m over 246 deals, demand during the first quarter of the year was higher compared to the five-year average. With the equivalent of more than one third of last years take-up already on the books, the sector continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of the challenges posed by the global pandemic and constantly shrinking supply. Demand for logistics spaces in Q1 totaled more than 50,000 sq m across only nine deals. This represents a 24% decrease compared to the end of last year and a traditional slow start to the year in a sector which often end on a strong note in Q4, as was the case in 2020. Additionally, the demand increasingly corresponds to smaller, last-mile type facilities in addition to the usual big box warehouses. This represents a growing concern in terms of supply shortage due to e-commerce properly taking root in Belgium, particularly since individuals’ behaviour towards retail has changed significantly in the past year. Prime rents are stable at EUR 63/sq m/year (semiindustrial) and EUR 58/sq m/year (logistics).
Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)
4.50 (L) 6.00 (SI) Prime yield (%, 3/6/9 lease) L: logistics SI: semi-industrial
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q1 2021 YoY Chg
Investment focus 12-Mo. Forecast
3.5% 2021 GDP Growth
7.4%
Upwards of EUR 45 million have been invested in industrial markets over Q1, although significant logistics investments were uncharacteristically absent. Indeed, semi-industrial investments dominated as a lack of supply in the face of strong demand is good news for owners or would-be sellers. A EUR 19 million acquisition by Exeter Property Group from Leasinvest in Zaventem was a highlight. Substantial logistics investments are however in the pipeline for the rest of the year and investor appetite certainly has not been affected. Prime yields underwent sharp decreases, to 6.00% for semi-industrial and 4.50% for logistics on the back of sustained investor interest, including from overseas. Additionally, the long-term prime logistics yield amounts to 4.25%, with numerous such assets having been traded of late.
Unemployment Rate
Outlook
1.7% Consumer Price Index
We expect sustained demand strong this year. Investor appetite will continue to grow over 2021. Prime yields will continue to sharpen, and even prime rents may increase as a result. INVESTMENT VOLUME PER TYPE, EUR M
TAKE-UP, SQ M 2,500,000
Source: National Bank of Belgium, and Eurostat April 2021
2,000,000
800
50
600
40
1,500,000
30 400
1,000,000
20 200
500,000 0
10
0 2017
2018 Logistics
2019 Semi-industrial
2020
Q1 2021
0 2017 Logistics
2018
2019 Semi-industrial
2020
Q1 2021 # deals (RHS)
M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM Industrial Q1 2021 MARKET STATISTICS
REGION
BUILT STOCK (SQ M)
Q1 2021 TAKE-UP (SQ M)
PRIME RENT (EUR/SQ M/YEAR)
PRIME YIELD (%)
LT PRIME YIELD (%)
Flanders
19,235,000 (L) 9,643,000 (SI)
21,000 (L) 175,000 (SI)
48 (L) 63 (SI)
4.50 (L) 6.00 (SI)
4.25 (L)
Brussels (incl. Brabants)
2,345,000 (L) 3,170,000 (SI)
2,000 (L) 46,000 (SI)
58 (L) 57 (SI)
4.50 (L) 6.00 (SI)
4.25 (L)
Wallonia
3,544,000 (L) 2,399,000 (SI)
28,000 (L) 39,000 (SI)
43 (L) 45 (SI)
4.60 (L) 6.40 (SI)
4.40 (L)
L: logistics SI: semi-industrial
KEY OCCUPIER TRANSACTIONS Q1 2021 PROPERTY
BUILDING TYPE
MARKET
TENANT
SIZE (SQ M)
TRANSACTION TYPE
Newpharma DC
Logistics
Van den Braembussche – Ottergemsesteenweg Zuid
Liège
Newpharma
20,000
Development
Semi-industrial
East Flanders
Van den Braembussche
13,000
Development
Waaslandlaan 14
Semi-industrial
Scheldeland
Vavato
12,000
Purchase
Rue Béjar 2-6
Semi-industrial
Brussels
NNCO
11,500
Purchase
Canal Logistics Centre
Logistics
Mechelen-Willebroek
Carrefour
8,000
Letting
*Renegotiations not included in leasing statistics
KEY INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS Q1 2021 PROPERTY
SUBMARKET
BUYER / SELLER
SQ M
PRICE, EUR M
Brixton Business Park
Flemish Brabant
Exeter Property Group / Leasinvest
19,000
18.75
Technologielaan 3/5
Flemish Brabant
WDP / Private
11,000
9.40
Boomsesteenweg 65
Antwerp
Debrico / Beerens Group
7,500
7.20
Antwerp
Van Mossel Automotive Group / FICO
2,400
3.65
Walloon Brabant
Private Family Office / VK Concept
4,000
3.50
Boomsesteenweg 37 Phoenix Business Parc
SHANE O’NEILL Senior Research Analyst +32 2 510 08 33 shane.oneill@cushwake.com CÉDRIC VAN MEERBEECK Head of Research & Marketing | Belgium & Luxembourg +32 2 629 02 86 cedric.vanmeerbeeck@cushwake.com A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION ©2021 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
cushmanwakefield.com