M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM Industrial Q3 2021 YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
416 (L) 852 (SI) Take-up (YTD) (000s sq m)
58 (L) 63 (SI) Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)
Overview Economic growth is set to increase to 5.54% which means that the GDP is around pre-crisis levels after which growth levels will stabilise to 2.64% in 2022 and 2.85% in 2023. The unemployment rate peaked at 6.17% in the third quarter and should be expected to decline in the last quarter of 2021 and stabilise around 5.74% in 2022 and 2023. In most private sectors, employment grew substantially in 2021, including up to 4.5% for R&D sector representing 4,000 new jobs. However, the banking & insurance sector continues to reduce its workforce reaching 44.5k jobs by the end of 2023.
Occupier focus Semi-industrial take-up amounted to more than 256,000 sq m over 224 deals - robust demand. This brings the annual total to 852,000 sq m, i.e., almost the same as during the whole of 2020, a return to form in this segment. The sector continues to demonstrate resilience in the face of the challenges posed by the global pandemic and constantly shrinking supply. Demand for logistics spaces on the other hand was weak totaling 103,000 sq m, bringing this year’s total to 416,000 sq m. Indeed, an important number of occupiers were already able to find spaces during 2020 amid the boost the sector received from the pandemic, so demand is not as strong. Additionally, availability is almost non-existent. The weight of pre-lettings and own-developments in the take-up (59%) attest to this. Therefore, locations previously deemed peripheral will continue to have a role in attracting large occupiers. Prime rents in both segments remain stable: EUR 63/sq m/year for semi-industrial, and EUR 58/sq m/year for logistics.
4.25 (L) 6.00 (SI) Prime yield (%, 3/6/9 lease) L: logistics SI: semi-industrial
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q3 2021 YoY Chg
5.54% 2021 GDP Growth
12-Mo. Forecast
Investment focus In total, EUR 61 million have been invested in industrial markets over Q3, therefore the most invested on a quarterly basis so far this year which is currently totaling EUR 156 million. This represents a somewhat disappointing figure on the back of much vaunted investor interest. Nevertheless, the EUR 32 million purchase by Whitewood and Tristan Capital of Genk Logistics proved a highlight and underlined international investors’ sustained interest in Belgian assets. Logistics prime yields continue to undergo sharp decreases, to 4.25%, while semi-industrial prime yields remain stable at 6.00%
6.17% 2021 Unemployment Rate
1.68%
Outlook If the government can come to an agreement on loosening night work restrictions in its 2022 budget, this may provide a timely boost to the logistics sector, which could rapidly translate into strengthened activity. Regardless, rents could increase soon, and yields are expected to continue to compress due to investor demand.
Consumer Price Index
TAKE-UP, SQ M
INVESTMENT VOLUME PER TYPE, EUR M
Source: Moody’s Analytics, BNB, Eurostat, September2021
2,500,000
800
50
Please note the economic data can vary significantly from one source to the other. Therefore, the figures provided should merely be used as an indication or trend.
2,000,000
600
40 30
1,500,000 400 1,000,000
20 200
500,000 0
10
0 2017
2018 Logistics
2019 Semi-industrial
2020
Q1-Q3 2021
0 2017 Logistics
2018
2019 Semi-industrial
2020
Q1-Q3 2021 # deals (RHS)
M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM Industrial Q3 2021 MARKET STATISTICS
REGION
BUILT STOCK (SQ M)
Q3 2021 TAKE-UP (SQ M)
PRIME RENT (EUR/SQ M/YEAR)
PRIME YIELD (%)
LT PRIME YIELD (%)
Flanders
19,240,000 (L) 10,138,000 (SI)
60,000 (L) 185,000 (SI)
48 (L) 63 (SI)
4.25 (L) 6.00 (SI)
3.50 (L)
Brussels (incl. Brabants)
2,400,000 (L) 3,260,000 (SI)
2,000 (L) 34,000 (SI)
58 (L) 57 (SI)
4.25 (L) 6.00 (SI)
3.50 (L)
Wallonia
3,693,000 (L) 2,527,000 (SI)
41,000 (L) 37,000 (SI)
43 (L) 45 (SI)
4.35 (L) 6.40 (SI)
3.50 (L)
L: logistics SI: semi-industrial
KEY OCCUPIER TRANSACTIONS Q3 2021 PROPERTY
BUILDING TYPE
MARKET
TENANT
SIZE (SQ M)
TRANSACTION TYPE
Newpharma DC extension De Hulst
Logistics
Liège
Newpharma
25,000
Development
Logistics
Mechelen-Willebroek
Eutraco
19,000
Letting
TDL Logistics - Grote Nest
Logistics
East Flanders
TDL Logistics
14,000
Development
Genk Green Logistics
Logistics
Limburg
Neovia Logistics
11,000
Pre-letting
Heppignies 42
Logistics
Hainaut
ING Asset Finance Belgium
11,000
Purchase
*Renegotiations not included in leasing statistics
KEY INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS Q3 2021 PROPERTY
SUBMARKET
BUYER / SELLER
SQ M
PRICE, EUR M
Limburg
Whitewood + Tristan Capital / Genk Logistics (KBC certificate)
76,000
32
Gotevlietstraat 86
West Flanders
EQT Exeter / Heylen Warehouses + AG Real Estate
15,000
15
Gates DC
East Flanders
WDP / Gates
20,000
12
Genk Logistics objects 1+2
SHANE O’NEILL Associate Director | Research Belgium +32 2 510 08 33 shane.oneill@cushwake.com CÉDRIC VAN MEERBEECK Head of Research & Marketing | Belgium & Luxembourg +32 2 629 02 86 cedric.vanmeerbeeck@cushwake.com A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION ©2021 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
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