M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM Industrial Q4 2020 YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
Overview
Take-up (2020) (000s sq m)
Belgian GDP posted a 6.7% drop in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, economic output should rebound by 2% on a quarterly basis, thereby returning rapidly to the level reached just before the second lockdown. At this point, the remaining restrictions, such as those for arts, recreation and events or, more generally, the required social distancing, will continue to weigh on activity. Source: National Bank of Belgium
58 (L) 63 (SI)
Occupier focus
943 (L) 760 (SI)
Semi-industrial demand has demonstrated resilience in 2020 a year hampered by the negative ramifications from the COVID-19 pandemic, registering crescendo levels of quarterly take-up (232,000 sq m in Q4). As a result, the year ends on a total of 760,000 sq m, the weakest level of the past five years which is only due to shrinking supply in the face of strong demand which includes a strong share of owner-occupier deals (45% of take-up in 2020). Following a colossal upsurge of logistics take-up in Q4 (437,000 sq m), 2020 (943,000 sq m) is exactly in line with five-year average figures. This is a very good result on the back of a record 2019 and the challenges in a year marked by COVID-19. E-commerce logistics played an important part as expected, with close to 25% of take-up during the year. Several large deals in Q4 played a crucial role in the strong end of year (cf. page 2).
Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)
4.70 (L) 6.55 (SI) Prime yield (%, 3/6/9 lease) L: logistics SI: semi-industrial
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q4 2020 YoY Chg
-6.7% GDP Growth (2020)
-5.3%
Investment focus 12-Mo. Forecast
Substantial occupier demand and close-to-zero vacancy has triggered substantial investor demand, making 2020 a record year on this front, with EUR 629 million invested, including EUR 522 million in logistics. International investors have made a more noticeable contribution. Faced with international competition, local players continue to make creative inroads in order not to be priced out of the market. Logistics prime yields decrease further to 4.70%, with further compression awaited in 2021. However, in the current rapidly evolving market, it cannot be excluded that a Grade A asset in a prime location with a long-term lease could go sub 4.25% in 2021.
Outlook
Exports of goods and services
We expect demand to remain similar to this year, it remains to be seen whether supply with be nimble enough to cater for this. Investor appetite will continue to grow over 2021.
-5.9%
TAKE-UP, SQ M
INVESTMENT VOLUME PER TYPE, EUR M
Imports of goods and services
2,500,000
800
50
Source: National Bank of Belgium
2,000,000
600
40
1,500,000
30 400
1,000,000
20 200
500,000 0
10
0 2016
2017 Logistics
2018 Semi-industrial
2019
2020
0 2016 Logistics
2017
2018 Semi-industrial
2019
2020 # deals (RHS)
M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM Industrial Q4 2020 MARKET STATISTICS
REGION
BUILT STOCK (SQ M)
Q4 2020 TAKE-UP (SQ M)
PRIME RENT (EUR/SQ M/YEAR)
PRIME YIELD (%)
LT PRIME YIELD (%)
Flanders
19,199,000 (L) 9,487,000 (SI)
340,000 (L) 167,000 (SI)
48 (L) 63 (SI)
4.70 (L) 6.65 (SI)
4.25 (L)
Brussels (incl. Brabants)
2,365,000 (L) 3,130,000 (SI)
2,000 (L) 34,000 (SI)
58 (L) 57 (SI)
4.70 (L) 6.65 (SI)
4.25 (L)
Wallonia
3,484,000 (L) 2,366,000 (SI)
94,000 (L) 31,000 (SI)
43 (L) 45 (SI)
4.80 (L) 6.95 (SI)
n.a.
L: logistics SI: semi-industrial
KEY OCCUPIER TRANSACTIONS Q4 2020 PROPERTY
BUILDING TYPE
MARKET
TENANT
SIZE (SQ M)
TRANSACTION TYPE
WDPort of Ghent – X2O, Overstock, Overstock Garden
Logistics
East Flanders
Overstock
150,000
Development
Genk Logistics
Logistics
Limburg
VAB Fleet Services
27,000 + 23,000
Letting
Ambachtsweg
Logistics
Kempen
Group De Wolf
45,000
Purchase
CEBEO DC Tournai
Logistics
Hainaut
CEBEO
40,000
Development
Koning Leopoldlaan 5
Logistics
Mechelen-Willebroek
DPD
27,000
Letting
*Renegotiations not included in leasing statistics
KEY INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS Q4 2020 PROPERTY Share of Weerts portfolio Casa European Logistics Centre 50% share Van Moer Logistics portfolio Bleckmann/Van Moer, North Sea Port Medi-Market DC Nivelles
SUBMARKET
BUYER / SELLER
SQ M
PRICE, EUR M
Multi-region
Ethias / Weerts Supply Chain
65,000
95
Kempen
CBRE GI / Domus Logistics
50,000
57
Multi-region
Van Wellen Storage / Van Moer Logistics
220,000
50
East Flanders
GLP / Private
60,000
40
Walloon Brabant
Tritax Eurobox / LCP
34,000
31
SHANE O’NEILL Senior Research Analyst +32 2 510 08 33 shane.oneill@cushwake.com CÉDRIC VAN MEERBEECK Head of Research & Marketing | Belgium & Luxembourg +32 2 629 02 86 cedric.vanmeerbeeck@cushwake.com A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION ©2021 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy.
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