M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM REGIONAL Office Q4 2020
YoY Chg
12-Mo. Forecast
Overview Belgian GDP posted a 6.7% drop in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, economic output should rebound by 2% on a quarterly basis, thereby returning rapidly to the level reached just before the second lockdown. At this point, the remaining restrictions, such as those for arts, recreation and events or, more generally, the required social distancing, will continue to weigh on activity. Source: National Bank of Belgium
269K Take-up sq m (2020)
165
Occupier focus
Prime rent, (EUR/sq m/year)
Prime yield (3/6/9 lease)
Flanders take-up decreased dramatically by 39% in 2020, to total 142,000 sq m – its weakest year since 2011. Q4 take-up was 53,000 sq m. Part of the issue, particularly in Antwerp, may be related to the reduced speculative deliveries in 2020. In contrast, Wallonia take-up in 2020 amounted to 127,000 sq m, registering a 41% growth in the process, with 38,000 sq m in Q4. This includes 78,000 sq m of take-up in Namur, which makes it Belgium’s second market in terms of take-up ahead of usual frontrunner, Antwerp. This upward trend was achieved through a substantial increase in the size and number of deals – attributable in particular to the Regional administration’s new occupational strategy. Prime rents remain stable at EUR 165/sq m/year in Antwerp, and EUR 160/sq m//year in Ghent, Liège and Namur
ECONOMIC INDICATORS Q4 2020
Investment focus
5.25%
GDP Growth Belgium
EUR 650 million have been invested in regional markets in 2020, this is the highest total since 2006, and includes EUR 127 million in Q4 (exclusively investments in Antwerp). Wallonia recorded its second highest volume of the decade (EUR 60 million), while Flanders registered its best year since 2006 with EUR 590 million. Highlights from the year include the purchase by AG Real Estate of several buildings at Post X in Antwerp (+- EUR 275 million), as well as Union Investment’s acquisition of the Diamond in Ghent, and Belfius’ acquisition of MG Business Center (EUR 45 million), also in Ghent. Underscoring the influence of these deals, the prime yield in Antwerp and Ghent sharpens to 5.25% in Q4.
5.6%
Outlook
Belgium Unemployment Rate
We expected prime yields and rents to remain stable in 2021. The pandemic puts a dampener on the private sector to kick on in 2021, globally we expect occupier demand to remain subdued.
YoY Chg
-6.7%
0.4%
12-Mo. Forecast
Belgium Consumer Price Index
TAKE-UP, SQ M
INVESTMENT VOLUME PER REGION, EUR M
400,000
800
35 30
Source: National Bank of Belgium
300,000
600
25 20
200,000
400
100,000
200
0
0
15 10 5
2016
2017
Flanders regional markets
2018
2019
2020
Wallonia regional markets
0 2016 2017 2018 Flanders regional markets # deals (RHS)
2019 2020 Wallonia regional markets
M A R K E T B E AT
BELGIUM REGIONAL Office Q4 2020 MARKET STATISTICS REGION
MARKET
BUILT STOCK (SQ M)
AVAILABILITY (SQ M)
VACANCY RATE
Q4 2020 TAKE-UP
2020 TAKE-UP (SQ M)
2021-2023 PIPELINE (SQ M)
PRIME RENT (EUR/SQ M/YEAR)
PRIME YIELD
Antwerp
2,242,000
220,000
9.82%
18,000
70,000
175,000
165
5.25%
Ghent
1,083,000
43,000
3.93%
27,000
55,000
88,000
160
5.25%
Leuven
561,000
n.a.
n.a.
1,300
8,000
30,000
150
6.50%
Mechelen
325,000
n.a.
n.a.
7,000
9,000
34,000
150
6.50%
Liège
508,000
18,000
3.60%
12,000
43,000
103,000
160
6.75%
Namur
516,000
30,000
5.88%
25,000
78,000
95,000
160
6.75%
Charleroi
456,000
15,000
3.32%
2,000
6,000
77,000
135
7.00%
Flanders
Wallonia
KEY OCCUPIER TRANSACTIONS Q4 2020 PROPERTY
MARKET
TENANT
SIZE (SQ M)
AXS Namur Daikin EMEA Development Center
Namur
SPW
24,000
Pre-letting
Ghent
Daikin Europe
13,000
Development
Forum
Ghent
Overstock
5,000
Purchase
Centre de recherche et de production UniD Manufacturing – EyeD Pharma
Liège
UniD Manufacturing – EyeD Pharma
4,500
Development
Mechlen
Goed
4,000
Letting
Liège
Lasea
3,500
Development
BULO Lasea Liège Science Park
TRANSACTION TYPE
*Renegotiations not included in leasing statistics
KEY SALES TRANSACTIONS Q4 2020 PROPERTY
SUBMARKET
SELLER / BUYER
SQ M
PRICE, EUR M
Boerentoren (project)
Antwerp
Katoen Natie / KBC
30,000
+/- 72
TheM (project)
Antwerp
Intervest Offices & Warehouses / Bermaso
14,000
+/- 48
SHANE O’NEILL Senior Research Analyst +32 2 510 08 33 shane.oneill@cushwake.com CÉDRIC VAN MEERBEECK Head of Research & Marketing | Belgium & Luxembourg +32 2 629 02 86 cedric.vanmeerbeeck@cushwake.com
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