TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT JAMES P. GAINES
CHIEF ECONOMIST
WAYNE DAY
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
WESLEY MILLER RESEARCH ASSISTANT
LUIS B. TORRES
RESEARCH ECONOMIST TECHNICAL REPORT
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F E B R U A R Y 2 017
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Contents About this Report .............................................................................................................. 3 December 2016 Summary ................................................................................................. 4 Supply .............................................................................................................................. 6 Residential Construction Coincident and Leading Indicator ............................................................ 7 Single-Family Housing Construction Permits ................................................................................... 7 Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits ............................................................ 8 Border Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits ........................................................... 8 Housing Starts .................................................................................................................................. 9 Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value ....................................................................... 9 Vacant Developed Lots ................................................................................................................... 10 Months of Inventory ...................................................................................................................... 10 Major Metros Months of Inventory ............................................................................................... 11 Border Metros Months of Inventory .............................................................................................. 11
Demand .......................................................................................................................... 12 Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................. 12 Major Metros Housing Sales .......................................................................................................... 12 Border Metros Housing Sales ......................................................................................................... 13 30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield ............................................................................ 13 Texas Homes Days on Market ........................................................................................................ 14 Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market .............................................................................. 14 Border Metros Existing Homes Days on Market ............................................................................ 15 Major Metros New Homes Days on Market ................................................................................... 15 Border Metros New Homes Days on Market ................................................................................. 16
Prices ............................................................................................................................. 16 United States Existing and New Home Average Sales Price ........................................................... 16 Texas Existing and New Home Average Sales Price ........................................................................ 17 Major Metros Existing Home Average Sales Price ......................................................................... 17 Border Metros Existing Home Average Sales Price ........................................................................ 18 Major Metros New Home Average Sales Price .............................................................................. 18 Border Metros New Home Average Sales Price ............................................................................. 19
United States Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ............................................................ 19 Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ........................................................................ 20 Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price .......................................................................... 20 Border Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price ......................................................................... 21 Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price ............................................................................... 21 Border Metros New Home Median Sales Price .............................................................................. 22 Texas Home Average Price Per Square Foot .................................................................................. 22 Major Metros Existing Home Average Price Per Square Foot ........................................................ 23 Border Metros Existing Home Average Price Per Square Foot ....................................................... 23 Major Metros New Home Average Price Per Square Foot ............................................................. 24 Border Metros New Home Average Price Per Square Foot ........................................................... 24 Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ................................................................................... 25 Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ......................................................... 25 Border Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ....................................................... 26 Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot .............................................................. 26 Border Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot ............................................................ 27 Texas Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio ....................................................................................... 27 Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio ............................................................ 28 Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio ................................................................. 28
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About this Report Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Texas Housing Insight is a summary of important economic indicators that help discern trends in the Texas housing markets. This monthly publication provides data and insights on the Texas housing markets. We hope you find them useful. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to info@recenter.tamu.edu. Dr. James Gaines, Dr. Luis Torres, Wayne Day, and Wesley Miller Data current as of January 30, 2017 Š 2017, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.
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December 2016 Summary The Texas economy expanded in December as energy and housing markets advanced, and the outlook on overall economic conditions in Texas increased from November. Total nonfarm employment expanded 1.8 percent year-over-year, compared to 1.4 percent growth nationally. Employment growth was spurred by the service-providing sector where educational and health, leisure and hospitality, and government service jobs realized most of the gains. Demand for housing weathered rising mortgage rates. Housing prices further appreciated as strong demand overtook modest supply increases. Months of inventory and days on the market remained relatively low. Total building permits increased over the month and year. Nevertheless, the coincident and leading indexes suggest a slowdown in residential construction. With interest rates expected to rise in 2017, sales in the short-term may pull back, but home prices are expected to keep increasing.
Supply The Texas Residential Construction Leading Index (RCLI), which signals future directional changes in the residential construction business cycle of single- and multifamily housing, declined in December. The RCLI was negatively affected by a monthly decline in housing starts. The Texas Residential Business Cycle (Coincident) Index, the measure of current construction activity, also declined as inflation-adjusted residential construction values continued a slide begun in May 2016. The RCLI indicates slower growth in future residential construction while the coincident index registered a slowdown in current activity already underway. Housing starts decreased 13.2 percent seasonally adjusted year-over-year in December continuing a negative trend that started in latesummer 2016. Housing starts are positively related with construction permits and lag their movements by some months. Single-family housing construction permits statewide increased during December both on an annual and monthly basis. Austin continued to grow at an accelerated rate after reaching a trough in mid-2015. Dallas maintained an upward trend and grew 10.5 percent seasonally adjusted year-over-year. Fort Worth and San Antonio ended 2016 with a consistent climb in housing construction permits that occurred throughout the year. Houston continued its slow recovery, closing the year with slightly fewer housing construction permits relative to 2015. Despite slow growth, Houston still led the nation in the number of single-family permits issued monthly at 2,568; Dallas-Fort Worth (2,327) and Austin (1,144) ranked second and sixth nationally. In the fourth quarter, the supply of vacant developed lots increased in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio for homes with a sales price over $200,000. The overall supply of lots continued to lag behind the demand for new housing. Months of Inventory of Texas houses for sale settled at 3.6 months (seasonally adjusted), indicating continued strong housing demand and tight supply. The nation rested at 4.3 months, suggesting constrained supply may persist nationally (around 6.5 months of inventory is considered
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a balanced housing market). Overall, supply has been restricted due to limited lot inventory and construction labor shortages.
Demand In December, total housing sales in Texas returned to more muted levels after a strong November. Sales grew just 0.6 percent year-over-year (seasonally adjusted). Nationally, total housing sales contracted marginally at 0.1 percent year-over-year. The major metros in Texas trended back to modest sales levels. Year-over-year growth rates were 3.9 percent for Austin, negative 4.7 percent for Dallas, negative 1.4 percent for Fort Worth, 3 percent for Houston, and 8.4 percent for San Antonio. In November, homebuyers may have expedited purchases prior to interest rate increases; therefore, sales normally occurring in December could have been pulled into the prior month. Employment and income growth, as well as consumer confidence, contributed to increased Texas housing sales. Consumer confidence favored the economy’s sustained post-election surge and tax relief expectations. Interest rates rose in December as inflation and inflation expectations increased due to possible future federal government policy changes. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation increased 43 basis points to a 4.20 percent average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, reaching a peak not seen since April 2014. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield also moved to its highest point since 2014, rising from 2.14 in November to 2.49 percent in December. The number of days that existing and new homes were on the market during December remained low at 53 and 92 days (seasonally adjusted), respectively, reflecting constrained supply and continued strong demand. This stability was reflected in the existing home markets for the Texas Triangle metros, while the new home markets exhibited slightly more volatility. The number of days on the market for new homes increased year-over-year by 15.8 percent in Fort Worth (85) and 3.1 percent in Houston (99), and decreased by 7.3 percent in San Antonio (83). The markets in Austin (105) and Dallas (79) were relatively constant in year-over-year calculations.
Prices Overall, sales prices have risen steadily in Texas since late 2011. Existing home prices increased through December in the state and major metros. The average and median sales price of an existing home in Fort Worth increased by 10 percent and 13 percent seasonally adjusted year-overyear, respectively. The average sales price in Austin, Dallas, and Houston grew more than 5 percent over the same period. San Antonio lagged with year-over-year growth settling just above 0.5 percent. Similarly, new home sales performed better in Austin, Dallas, and Fort Worth than San Antonio and Houston. Average sales prices on new homes in Fort Worth surged 21 percent yearover-year, while Dallas’ gains were more modest at 8 percent. Austin was the house price appreciation leader through December 2016 with existing home prices remaining well above the other major metros. Austin clearly leads the major metros in terms of price per square foot for both new and existing homes. The average new and existing homes in Austin are $50 and $30 more per square foot, respectively, than houses in other major Texas metros. Nonenergy employment 5
growth and a strong services sector caused Dallas-Fort Worth to register strong price appreciation in December. Existing home prices in Houston continued to recover following the energy sector decline while new home prices are still lagging. The difference between the initial listing price to the actual sales price for new homes fell at the start of 2014 and flattened out as the demand for new homes eased. The gap between new and existing home sales-to-price ratio has converged at 0.96. Since 2011, new home prices have exceeded existing home prices by 47 percent and 37 percent based on median and average sales prices, respectively. This price differential results primarily because of increases in home size for newer homes and the significant increases in construction and land costs for new homes. The average price per square foot for a new home in Texas was approximately 19 percent more than for an existing home.
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Supply
Residential Construction Coincident and Leading Indicator (Index Jan 2007 = 100)
110 100 90
Texas Coincident Index United States Coincident Index Texas Leading Index
80 70 60
40
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
50
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
110 100
Single-Family Housing Construction Permits (Index Jan 2007 = 100) United States
Texas
90 80 70 60 50 40
20
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
30
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
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120 110 100 90 80 70
Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits (Index Jan 2007 = 100) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
60 50 40 20
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
30
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Fort Worth is missing data for Somervell County. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
110
Border Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits (Index Jan 2007 = 100) Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
100 90 80 70 60 50
30
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
40
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
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110
Housing Starts (Index Jan 2007 = 100) United States
Texas
100 90 80 70 60 50
30
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
40
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
110 100 90
Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value (Index Jan 2007 = 100) Texas Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
80 70 60 50 40 30
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
Note: Inflation adjusted. Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Source: Dodge Analytics
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Vacant Developed Lots (Index 1Q2003=100)
250 225 200
Austin
Dallas
Houston
San Antonio
175 150 125 100
3Q16
1Q16
3Q15
1Q15
3Q14
1Q14
3Q13
1Q13
3Q12
1Q12
3Q11
1Q11
3Q10
1Q10
3Q09
1Q09
3Q08
1Q08
3Q07
1Q07
3Q06
1Q06
3Q05
1Q05
3Q04
1Q04
1Q03
50
3Q03
75
Source: Metrostudy
Months of Inventory (Months)
11 10
United States
9
Texas
8 7 6 5 4 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
3
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Months of inventory for the United States is estimated using weights for all existing homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
10
Major Metros Months of Inventory (Months)
9 Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
8 7 6 5 4 3
1
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
Apr-11
17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0
Border Metros Months of Inventory (Months)
Jan-11
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
2
11
Demand 110
Housing Sales (Index Jan 2007 = 100) United States
105
Texas
100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55
Major Metros Housing Sales (Index Jan 2007 = 100) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
55
Note: Seasonally adjusted sales reported by MLS and detrended. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
12
130 120 110
Border Metros Housing Sales (Index Jan 2007 = 100) Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
100 90 80
60
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
70
Note: Seasonally adjusted sales reported by MLS and detrended. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
7.00
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield (Percent) Mortgage
Bond
6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00
1.00
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16
2.00
Note: Seasonally adjusted. Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board
13
Texas Homes Days on Market (Days) 110
Existing Home Days on Market New Home Days on Market
100 90 80 70
50
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market (Days)
105
Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
95 85 75 65 55 45 35 25
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
60
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
14
160 150 140
Border Metros Existing Homes Days on Market (Days) Brownsville-Harlingen Laredo
El Paso McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
130 120 110 100 90 80 70 50
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
120 110
Major Metros New Homes Days on Market (Days) Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
100 90 80 70
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
60
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
15
Border Metros New Homes Days on Market (Days)
160
Brownsville-Harlingen Laredo
140
El Paso McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
120 100 80 60
20
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
40
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Prices
United States Existing and New Home Average Sales Price ($)
380,000 360,000 340,000
Existing Home Average Sales Price New Home Average Sales Price
320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000
200,000
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
220,000
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
16
350,000 330,000 310,000
Texas Existing and New Home Average Sales Price ($) Existing Home Average Sales Price New Home Average Sales Price
290,000 270,000 250,000 230,000 210,000
170,000
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
190,000
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
375,000 350,000 325,000
Major Metros Existing Home Average Sales Price ($) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
300,000 275,000 250,000 225,000 200,000
150,000
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
175,000
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
17
180,000 170,000
Border Metros Existing Home Average Sales Price ($) Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000
110,000
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
120,000
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
440,000 420,000 400,000 380,000 360,000 340,000 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000
Major Metros New Home Average Sales Price ($) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
18
220,000
Border Metros New Home Average Sales Price ($)
210,000 200,000 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
150,000
130,000
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
United States Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ($)
320,000 300,000
Existing Home Median Sales Price New Home Median Sales Price
280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
140,000
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
19
310,000 290,000 270,000
Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ($) Existing Home Median Sales Price New Home Median Sales Price
250,000 230,000 210,000 190,000 170,000
130,000
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
150,000
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price ($)
300,000 280,000 260,000
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
20
170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000
Border Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price ($) Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000
80,000
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
90,000
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
370,000 330,000
Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price ($) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
290,000 250,000
170,000
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
210,000
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
21
Border Metros New Home Median Sales Price ($)
200,000 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000
120,000 110,000
El Paso
Laredo
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
135 130 125
Texas Home Average Price Per Square Foot ($) Existing Home Average Price PSF New Home Average Price PSF
120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Brownsville-Harlingen
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
130,000
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
22
170 160 150 140 130 120
Major Metros Existing Home Average Price Per Square Foot ($) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
110 100 90 80 60
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
70
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
100 95 90 85
Border Metros Existing Home Average Price Per Square Foot ($) Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
80 75 70 65
55
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
60
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
23
170 160 150
Major Metros New Home Average Price Per Square Foot ($) Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
140 130 120 110 100
80
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
90
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
125 120 115 110 105
Border Metros New Home Average Price Per Square Foot ($) Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
100 95 90 85 75
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
80
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
24
125 120 115
Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($) Existing Home Median Price PSF New Home Median Price PSF
110 105 100 95 90 85 80 70
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
75
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
150 140 130 120 110
Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
100 90 80 70 60
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
25
Border Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)
105 100 95
Brownsville-Harlingen
El Paso
Laredo
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
90 85 80 75 70 65 55
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
60
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
145 135 125
Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($) Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
115 105 95
75
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
85
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
26
110 105 100
Border Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($) Brownsville-Harlingen El Paso Laredo McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
95 90 85 80
70
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
75
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio (%)
0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 Existing Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio
0.93
New Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio
0.91
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
0.92
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
27
Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio (%)
0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94
Austin-Round Rock
0.93
Dallas-Plano-Irving
0.92
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
0.91
San Antonio-New Braunfels Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
0.90
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price Ratio (%)
1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96
Austin-Round Rock
0.95
Dallas-Plano-Irving
0.94
Fort Worth-Arlington
0.93
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
0.92
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
0.91
Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
28
MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL Texas A&M University 2115 TAMU College Station, TX 77843-2115
http://recenter.tamu.edu 979-845-2031
DIRECTOR GARY W. MALER
ADVISORY COMMITTEE RUSSELL CAIN, CHAIRMAN Port Lavaca
DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN Fort Worth
MARIO A. ARRIAGA Conroe ALVIN COLLINS Andrews JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS Austin BESA MARTIN Boerne
TED NELSON Houston DOUG ROBERTS Austin C. CLARK WELDER San Antonio BILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO Temple
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