Changing tides of Belarus: towards regional destabilisation?

// Timo Hellenberg

When Lukashenko visited Sochi on 14 September 2020 as a guest of president Putin, Minsk started to be “couched” by Kremlin, the subject became an object. As a result of the Sochi visit, Lukashenko received a pledge of EUR 1.5 billion in quick loans to help Minsk re-finance its current debt, as well as a promise from Moscow to support the armed forces should the situation get worse.

On Monday 9 August, Alexander Lukashenko spoke for hours at the first anniversary of the disputed election that extended his decades-long rule by defending his victory. He was accusing his opponents of plotting a “coup” during the August 9 2020 election which gave Luhashenko a sixth term in office. He stated that he won the last year´s presidential election fairly while protecting his country against a violent extremist upheaval.

Belarus has since launched a systemic and progressive multiple influencing (hybrid) against her neighbouring countries. For instance, Lithuania, neighbour of Belarus and the member state of the European Union and member of the NATO, is currently facing a migration flow that has suddenly begun through Belarus and at the instigation of the country’s authoritarian Lukashenko. More than 4,000 illegal migrants have already entered Lithuania in a short time via Belarus, most of whom have been flown to Minsk first as “tourists” from either Iraq or Turkey. So, question remains, whether Lithuania is now facing a hybrid influencing from foreign powers which was the case at the Finnish border in late 2015 and early 2016?

The difference with the recent asylum seeker crisis between Finland and Russia is that the Belarusian border authorities do not allow asylum seekers to use official border crossings. Instead, people are deliberately directed to cross the national border from anywhere through forests. According to Lithuania and Poland, countries were selected as a priority for migrant crisis pressure because they have granted diplomatic status and asylum to many opposition figures, such as Lukashenko’s main opponent, Svyatlana Tsihanouskaya, in Vilnius.

In Brussels, Tsikhanouskaya received on 15.12.2020 among other democratic leaders Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. At the ceremony, she spoke of political prisoners and victims of repression and called on the world to support Belarus. She also forwarded a letter to Věra Jourová, Vice-Chair of the Committee on Values and Transparency, proposing that GUBOPIK (the Belarusian Interior Ministry’s Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption) and OMON be recognized as terrorist organizations. The document was signed by 50,000 Belarusians. Brussels has been active in rhetorically condemning violence, criminal charges and the torture of protesters, but there have been no major steps in terms of sanctions.

The first packages of sanctions from the West blacklisted Lukashenko and dozens of officials, and Tsikhanouskaya’s actions greatly influenced the adoption of the third package of sanctions against Belarusian units. The list included 29 individuals and seven companies involved in repression against Belarussians. The two main European banks, the EBRD and the EIB, have suspended all operations in the country, with the exception of ongoing projects.

The sectoral sanctions are not yet in the EU’s range of options, as they are feared to make Belarus increasingly dependent on Russian energy supplies. In this chess game, Russia takes the winnings from the West in all volumes of foreign trade, in the amount of foreign investment, in security and military cooperation, in cultural and information visibility. The West can mainly provide humanitarian support to the opposition, continue to cooperate with civil society in ongoing projects, and develop more cooperation in the scientific and cultural sectors. The World Bank is showing direction here, opening up new project applications for the development of the education sector. United Kingdom imposed sanctions on Belarus´s potash and petroleum products on 9 August, while Canada and USA joining soon with similar actions.

The EU has now otherwise channelled funds previously directed to Minsk to support civil society. The Baltic countries and Poland have liberalized visa processing for the country’s opposition leaders, who have not yet been imprisoned in their home country and receive virtually all opposition leaders who want to flee their country. Germany, which until now has been silent, is embarking on large-scale civic-level interaction projects.

Published data on the draft state budget for 2021 revealed that Belarus is aiming at increasing defence and law enforcement spending by about 12 percent compared to 2020. Meanwhile, inflation in 2020 is likely to exceed the 7% and the Belarusian ruble has devalued by 16%. So in reality, national defence spending has declined significantly this year. The Department of Defence’s plans to purchase four additional Su-30SM fighters have been halted. At the same time, the authorities are not optimistic that they can improve the economic situation in the coming year. Disputes over the price of energy sold to Belarus have also intensified.

In the early part of President Biden’s administration, the east-west political zero-sum game for Belarus is likely to intensify. New game rules will be tested and old coalition structures will come under pressure. The crisis of Belarus and its opposition´s neutrality aspirations will bring up pent-up political passions. At the same time, it threatens to take Ukraine, unnoticed, backwards from peaceful development. From big power capitals these issues are and will be set up together, not apart from each other.

Russia and Belarus armed forces have carried out joint exercises on regular base during the year long upheaval in Minsk. These exercises will reach their climax on 10 September when large scale military exercise called Zapad21 (“West” in Russian) will be launched. Konstantin von Eggert has summarized: probably the most significant trend has been a creeping absorption of the Belarus State Security Committee by Russia´s State Security Service (FSB). With the possible deepening and widening of the crisis in Belarus, the West should also prepare for the gloomy scenario. Zapad21 begins the very same day 10.9. when the Peace Treaty of Nystad marks 300 years. This Treaty ended the Great Northern War (1700–1721). In the peace treaty of Nystad 1721 the kingdom of Sweden lost its territories (Estonia, Livonia and Ingria) in the eastern side of the Baltic Sea as well as the areas of Finnish Karelia, the city of Wiborg included. Historical curtains are here when Belarus is now heading from hybrid crisis towards regional destabilisation, while Zapad21 exercise starting at the NordicBaltic doorsteps. In the worst case, it could continue to mutate into a great power conflict, if the importance of Belarus is downplayed in the West and reciprocally perceived in Moscow as a question of prestige.

Timo Hellenberg, (Dr.Pol. Sc., M.Sc.Econ.) is a CEO and founder of Hellenberg International Ltd and CEO of Hellenberg HK Limited.

He has served as a Special Adviser (EU and Foreign Affairs) to Prime Minister. He has 25 years of academic and crisis management researcher incl. at the United Nations (DRD). Timo´s recent assignments include: Project Director: Poseidon – Preventing Terrorism (2007-2008, EU DG JHL), Project Director: Aether – Air Passenger Transport Security in Case of CBRN Threat by Terrorists (2009-2011, EU DG JHL), Project Partner: Analysis of Civil Security Systems in Europe (2012-2014, DG Enterprise), Project Partner: Project Mappers – Mobile Applications for Emergency Response and Support (2013-2015, Civil Protection Directorate), Project Partner: RAIN – Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks of Extreme Weather Events (2014-2017, FP7), Project Consultant: Critical Infrastructure Resilience Index (2016, Finnish Ministry of Defence, MATINE), Project Partner: Towards an Arctic Business Possibilities Strategy (2016-2017, Government Council of Finland), Co-organiser: Standing Working Group of Experts from the United States and Russia; “Workshop on the convergence of violent extremism and radiological security” Helsinki (Dec. 2018, NAS), Project Partner: Mall-CBRN, Creation of CBRNE protection system for large area shopping malls (2019-2021, ISFP), Project Partner Crispro Knowledge Network (2020-2022, DG ECHO), Project Partner: Prosperes – Protection System for large gatherings of People in Religious Sites (2021-2023, ISFP).  He is a board member of the Paasikivi Society (since 2003-); Board member of the Geopolitical Society of Finland (2015-); Member of the Finnish-Russian Scientific and Technical Committee (1997-); Member of the European Security Research and Innovation Forum (ESRIF); Founder of the CIVPRO Civil Protection Network, Board Member of the Baltic Civil Defence Network (2020-), Senior Expert at the International Market Analysis (Washington DC) (2015-), Member of the Advisory Board of the Cyberwatch Oy Ltd (2018-).