August 2016 Analyst Report containing Value analysis

Page 1

MONTHLY MARKET OVERVIEW August 2016

SUMMARY OF CONTENT • • • • •

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Value analysis Total second hand S&P activity Newbuilding activity Demolition activity Charter rate analysis

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BULKER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016

BULKERS

BUILT 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001

The table below shows the monthly % change for each bulker vessel type, built from 2001-2016 for the month of August 2016.

CAPE

PMAX

SUPRA

HANDY

3.20%

5.80%

0.80%

17.60%

180k

80k

60k

30k

2.00%

5.40%

180k

80k

60k

30k

4.70%

-0.36%

13.20%

180k

80k

60k

30k

0.30%

3.80%

-0.50%

11.00%

180k

80k

60k

30k

-0.10%

2.80%

-0.40%

9.00%

180k

80k

60k

30k

1.10%

-0.30%

15.40%

-0.10%

6.90%

180k

80k

60k

30k

-0.20%

0.60%

0.60%

5.20%

180k

80k

55k

30k

0.10%

1.70%

0.10%

-0.70%

180k

80k

0.50%

-1.90%

180k

80k

1.20% 180k

2.10% 180k

-3.10% 75k

-4.30%

1.40%

3.60%

55k

2.50%

30k

2.30%

55k

3.80%

30k

1.10%

55k

5.10%

30k

0.40%

75k

55k

30k

-5.30%

6.60%

0.00%

180k

75k

55k

30k

4.20%

-6.50%

8.50%

-0.20%

180k

75k

55k

30k

4.90%

-7.50%

10.30%

0.00%

175k

75k

50k

30k

6.20%

-8.70%

12.00%

0.80%

175k

75k

50k

30k

4.50%

-9.40%

14.40%

175k

75k

50k

3.10%

1.50% 30k

Modern bulkers have strengthened throughout August.

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BULKER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016

Capesize

Capesize values have firmed. 6 capesize sales have been concluded over August. The sale of the Mustang (180,000 dwt, 2016 blt, New Times Shipping) sold for usd 32.5 mil, with the VV value on the day before sale being usd 28.5 mil.

Panamax

Panamax values have firmed for modern tonnage and softened for older tonnage. 12 sales having been concluded for August. The highest impact was the resale of SS220 Hull and SS221 Hull (81,600 dwt, 2016 blt, Tsuneishi Zhoushan) for usd 22 mil each with VV valuing at usd 19.65 mil each. Older tonnage has seen a softening in value, confirmed by the sale of the Yangtze (73,500 dwt, 2001 blt, Tsuneishi) for usd 3.4 mil and VV valuing the vessel the day before sale at usd 4.26 mil.

Supramax

Supramax values have firmed for older tonnage and have been stable to soft for modern tonnage. 19 sales were concluded for the month of August. The Nemtas 1 (50,100 dwt, 2001 blt, Mitsui Ichihara) was sold by Nemtas Nemrut Liman for usd 4.4 mil with VV valuing the day before sale at usd 3.88 mil. For modern tonnage, the 61,000 dwt resale from Dalian Cosco KHI sold for usd 18.3 mil with VV valuing the day before sale at usd 17.8 mil.

Handy

Modern handy values have firmed. 11 sales were concluded for August. Contributing to modern tonnage firming was the Don Mariano (37,900 dwt, 2016 blt, Avic Weihai) sold at usd 14.5 mil and VV valuing the vessel at usd 10.5 mil the day before sale.

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TANKER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016

TANKERS

BUILT 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001

The table below shows the monthly % change for each tanker vessel type, built from 2001-2016 for the month of August 2016.

VLCC

SUEZ

AFRA

LR1

MR

-0.10%

-3.40%

-3.20%

-3.30%

-1.50%

320k

160k

110k

75k

50k

-0.20%

-3.50%

-3.30%

-3.30%

-1.60%

320k

160k

110k

75k

50k

-0.40%

-3.60%

-3.30%

-3.40%

-1.60%

320k

160k

110k

75k

50k

-0.60%

-4.00%

-3.30%

-3.30%

-1.60%

320k

160k

110k

75k

50k

-1.80%

-4.40%

-3.30%

-3.30%

-1.50%

310k

160k

110k

75k

50k

-2.20%

-4.90%

-3.30%

-3.30%

-1.40%

310k

160k

110k

75k

50k

-2.70%

-5.50%

-3.20%

-3.20%

-1.20%

310k

160k

110k

75k

50k

-3.20%

-6.10%

-3.20%

-3.20%

310k

160k

110k

75k

50k

-3.80%

-6.80%

-3.10%

-3.10%

-1.00%

310k

160k

110k

75k

50k

-4.40%

-7.40%

-3.00%

-3.00%

-0.90%

310k

160k

110k

75k

50k

-5.00%

-8.00%

-2.90%

-2.90%

-0.70%

310k

160k

110k

70k

45k

-5.60%

-8.50%

-2.80%

-2.80%

-0.90%

310k

160k

110k

70k

45k

-6.70%

-9.20%

-2.70%

-2.70%

-0.80%

305k

155k

105k

70k

45k

-7.40%

-9.50%

-2.50%

-2.50%

-0.90%

305k

155k

105k

70k

45k

-8.20%

-9.60%

-2.40%

-2.40%

-0.90%

305k

155k

105k

70k

45k

-9.30%

-9.50%

-2.30%

-2.30%

-0.90%

300k

155k

105k

70k

45k

-1.10%

Tanker values have continued to fall throughout August across all vessel types.

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TANKER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016

VLCC

VLCC values have softened, with older tonnage affected the most. 2 sales have been concluded for August. The sale of Kaminesan (303,900 dwt, 2003 blt, Universal) sold at usd 28.3 mil with VV valuing at usd 32.4 mil, a significant reduction.

Suezmax

Suezmax have softened, with older tonnage affected the most. No sales have taken place this month, softening due to falling charter rates.

Aframax

Aframax and LR2s have shown a consistent softening in values throughout August. The sale of the Isis (116,100 dwt ,2007 blt, Universal) failed in July 2016 and was resold on August 10th by Global United Shipping Singapore to Atlas Maritime. The vessel sold for usd 24.7 mil.

MR

MR values have softened throughout the month. 7 sales have been concluded for the month of August in the handy sector. Two MR2 sisters, the Pacific Marchioness (46,700 dwt, 2010 blt, Hyundai Mipo) and the Pacific Duchess (46,700 dwt, 2009 blt, Hyundai Mipo) have been sold en bloc at usd 22.3 mil and usd 20.7 mil respectively. VV valuing the day before sale for usd 22.49 mil and usd 20.97 mil respectively. The sale includes a bareboat to ENOC.

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CONTAINER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016

CONTAINERS

BUILT

The table below shows the monthly % change for each container vessel type, built from 2001-2016 for the month of August 2016.

POST PMAX

PMAX

HANDY

FMAX

-2.70%

-3.20%

-4.50%

-1.60%

7000

4250

1400

750

-2.80%

-3.30%

-5.10%

-1.60%

7000

4250

1400

750

-3.10%

-3.60%

-5.70%

-1.30%

7000

4250

1400

750

-3.60%

-4.00%

-6.30%

-1.00%

7000

4250

1400

750

-4.10%

-4.60%

-6.90%

-0.70%

7000

4250

1400

750

-4.90%

-5.30%

-7.30%

-0.30%

7000

4250

1400

750

-5.70%

-6.20%

-7.50%

-0.10%

7000

4250

1400

750

-6.60%

-7.10%

-7.60%

-0.30%

7000

4250

1400

750

-7.70%

-8.10%

-7.20%

-0.70%

7000

4250

1400

750

-8.80%

-9.20%

-6.90%

-1.70%

7000

4250

1400

750

-9.90%

10.30%

-6.20%

-3.10%

7000

4250

1400

750

11.00%

11.50%

-5.40%

-5.00%

7000

4250

1400

750

12.20%

12.50%

-4.30%

-7.40%

7000

4250

1400

750

13.30%

-9.80%

-3.00%

-9.90%

6500

4000

1400

750

-1.30%

12.80%

2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001

14.50%

1.70%

6500

4000

1400

750

15.60%

4.40%

0.30%

-15.7%

6500

4000

1400

750

Container values have weakened across all vessel types.

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CONTAINER VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016

Post PMax

Post Panamax values have softened, with older tonnage affected the most. 1 sale has been concluded for August. UASC Umm Qasr (9034 teu, 2014 blt, Hyundai Samho Heavy Ind) sold to MC Seamax Management LLC from Asiatic Lloyd Shipping for usd 80 mil inc charter. VV valuing the vessel at usd 77.39 mil day before sale.

Panamax

Panamax values have softened, with 15y old vessels showing a slight firming from historic lows. 1 sale has been concluded this month. Mare Caribicum (4038 teu, 2000 blt,HHI) sold by Hansa Mare KG to Orient Express Lines for usd 4.6 mil. 10 demolition sales have taken place in the Panamax fleet.

Handy

Handy container values have softened. 3 sales were concluded for August 2016. One of which, Mell Solomon (1,740 teu, 2009 blt, Guangzhou Wenchong) sold by Gebruder Winter at usd 8.5 mil, VV valued the vessel at usd 9.6 mil day before sale.

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OFFSHORE VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016

OSV

BUILT 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001

The table below shows the monthly % change for OSV’s, built from 2001-2016 for the month of August 2016.

LARGE PSV

MEDIUM PSV

SMALL PSV

SUPER AHTS

MEDIUM AHTS

SMALL AHTS

1.00%

1.00%

0.90%

0.30%

1.30%

1.30%

5.2k

3.6k

1.7k

24k

8k

5.2k

0.90%

0.90%

0.80%

0.30%

1.20%

1.20%

4.8k

3.6k

1.7k

24k

8k

5.2k

0.60%

0.70%

0.70%

0.20%

1.10%

1.00%

4.8k

3.4k

1.7k

24k

8k

5.2k

0.40%

0.50%

0.50%

0.20%

0.80%

0.80%

4.8k

3.3k

1.7k

24k

8k

5.2k

0.10%

0.20%

0.20%

0.20%

0.70%

0.80%

4.8k

3.3k

1.7k

24k

8k

5.2k

-0.30%

-0.20%

-0.20%

0.10%

0.60%

0.50%

4.8k

3.3k

1.6k

24k

8k

5.2k

-0.70%

-0.60%

-0.70%

0.10%

0.50%

0.40%

4.8k

3.3k

1.6k

24k

8k

5.1k

-1.10%

-1.00%

-1.20%

0.10%

0.40%

0.40%

4.8k

3.3k

1.6k

24k

8k

5.1k

-1.60%

-1.60%

-1.60%

0.00%

0.20%

0.30%

4.8k

3.3k

1.6k

24k

8k

5.1k

-2.00%

-2.00%

-2.10%

-0.10%

0.00%

0.30%

4.8k

3.3k

1.6k

24k

8k

5.1k

-2.50%

-2.60%

-2.40%

-0.20%

0.00%

-0.70%

4.8k

3.3k

1.6k

24k

8k

5.1k

-3.10%

-3.00%

-3.10%

-0.30%

0.00%

0.00%

4.8k

3.3k

1.6k

24k

8k

5k

-3.60%

-3.40%

-3.60%

-0.40%

0.00%

0.00%

4.8k

3.3k

1.6k

24k

8k

5k

-3.90%

-4.20%

-4.10%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.00%

4.8k

3.3k

1.6k

24k

8k

5k

-4.60%

-4.50%

-4.10%

-0.60%

-0.70%

0.00%

4.7k

3.3k

1.6k

24k

8k

5k

-4.80%

-5.10%

-4.80%

-0.80%

0.00%

0.00%

4.7k

3.3k

1.6k

19k

8k

5k

OSV values have remained relatively stable. Modern vessel values have firmed slightly, older vessels have softened slightly.

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OFFSHORE VALUES THROUGH AUGUST 2016

PSV

PSVs had a total of 4 sales. ER Kristiansand (3,400dwt, blt 2005, Kleven Verft), ER Arendal and ER Bergen (3,500 dwt, blt 2006, Kleven Verft) were sold at usd 2.5 mil each by ER Offshore to PSV Opportunity. Maersk Finder (4,600 dwt, blt 1994, Ulstein Verft) was sold for an undisclosed price from Maersk to Karadeniz Holding. It will be modified and removed from the offshore market.

AHTS

AHTS sales included a large debt restructuring move by Siem Offshore. The vessels Siem Amethyst, Siem Aquamarine, Siem Diamond, Siem Emerald, Siem Garnet, Siem Opal, Siem Pearl, Siem Ruby, Siem Sapphire and Siem Topaz, were purchased by the Siem AHTS Pool from Siem Offshore for an undisclosed price. VV’s value for the vessels part of the Siem deal is usd 597 mil. Maersk Puncher (14,280 BHP, blt 1992, Vard Soviknes) and Maersk Provider (14,280 BHP, blt 1991, Vard Soviknes) were sold for an undisclosed price to Karadeniz Holding. The vessels will be modified and removed from the offshore market. VV estimates the total deal from Maersk to Karadeniz Holding to be worth usd 4.15 mil.

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2ND HAND S&P ACTIVITY AUGUST 2016 VS 2015

1,800

2016

$1,592

1,600

2015

Value (M USD)

1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400

$416

$482

$380 $224

200

$156 $0

0 Bulker

S&P $

Tanker

Container

$20

$9

$7.5

Gas

OSV

Chart 1 shows the total value of 2nd hand sales in August 2016 compared to August 2015. Total activity by transaction value is down 55% compared to August 2015. Container activity in August 2016 showed higher transaction values than August 2015. No transactions in the Gas market in August 2016.

50 45

2016

46

2015

40 No. Vessels

35

36

34

30 25 20

18

15

15

11

10

7

5 Bulker

S&P No.

3

0

0 Tanker

Container

Gas

3 OSV

Chart 2 shows the total number of 2nd hand sales taken place in August 2016 compared to August 2015. Total sales by number count are marginally down from August 2015. Bulker sales are up 26% compared to August 2015. Tankers have had the largest fall in 2nd hand S&P activity. 15 OSV transactions in August 2016 but only 3 confirmed prices.

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NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY AUGUST 2016 VS 2015

40

2016 35

No. New Buildings

35

2015

30 25 20 14

15

15

11

10

13

4

5 0

Bulker

Newbuilding No.

0

0 Tanker

Container

0 Gas

OSV

Chart 3 shows the number of new building orders taken place in August 2016 compared to August 2015. Newbuilding orders are down 55% from August 2016 compared to August 2015. The Container market shows a 13% increase in newbuilding orders for 2016. No Bulker, Gas or OSV newbuilding orders were placed in August 2016.

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2


DEMOLITION ACTIVITY AUGUST 2016 VS 2015

18

17

2016

16

No. Demo sales

14

2015

15

14

12 10 8 6 4

4

2

2

1

2

2

2

1

0 Bulker

Demolition No.

Tanker

Container

Gas

OSV

Chart 4 shows the number of demolition sales for each ship type, taken place for August 2016 compared to August 2015. Total demolition sales for all ship types are up 50% for this August compared to August 2015. Containers have seen the greatest increase in demo sales. Gas demolition sales have remained consistent for August 2015 and August 2016.

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CHARTER RATES

Capesize Panamax Supramax Handy

25,000

(USD per day)

20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Sep 2015

Dry

Nov 2015

Jan 2016

Apr 2016

Jun 2016

Aug 2016

Chart 5 shows the Baltic Exchange daily market spot rates for Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handy Bulkers from 1st August 2015 – 31st August 2016. Source: Baltic Exchange Rates for all dry vessel types have firmed since the start of the year but are slightly below August 2015 levels.

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

100,000 90,000 80,000 (USD per day)

70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Sep 2015

Wet

Nov 2015

Jan 2016

Apr 2016

Jun 2016

Aug 2016

Chart 6 shows the Baltic Exchange daily market spot rates for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax Tankers from 1st August 2015 – 31st August 2016. Source: Baltic Exchange Tanker rates for all types continue to soften.

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CHARTER RATES

Panamax Handy Feeder

14,000 12,000

(USD per day)

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Sep 2015

Container

Nov 2015

Jan 2016

Apr 2016

Jun 2016

Aug 2016

Chart 7 shows Contex daily time charter rates for Panamax, Handysize and Feedermax Containers from 1st August 2015 – 31st August 2016. Source: Contex. Container rates have softened over the last 12 months and have stabilized at low levels since January.

VLGC MGC LEG

3,500 3,000

(USD per day)

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Sep 2015

LPG

Nov 2015

Jan 2016

Apr 2016

Jun 2016

Aug 2016

Chart 8 shows the Fearnleys monthly market spot rates for VLGC, MGC and LEG Gas ships from 1st August 2015 – 31st August 2016. Source: Fearnleys. The LPG sector has seen a further decrease in spot market rates over the course of 2016. VLGCs have fallen the most, now lower than MGC and LEG rates.

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