030_SDT061.qxp_Layout 1 6/21/22 10:13 AM Page 30
30
SD Times
July 2022
www.sdtimes.com
Analyst View BY ROB ENDERLE
In-person events: In flux and in trouble Rob Enderle is a principal analyst at the Enderle Group.
T
he 2022 tech event season started out with CES trying to overcome its disastrous 2021 remote conference by going back to the in-person model. The result was another disaster because attendance was extremely low. Dell Technologies World a few months later was very well-attended but many people got sick and likely regretted their attendance. More recently, Microsoft’s Build event was entirely remote, well-attended, and well-executed but lacked the social benefits of an in-person show. Of all these shows, Microsoft did the best job at hosting a remote event overall, and CES came off as the worst, with its attempt at a hybrid event that neither met the needs of those that were remote or who attended in person. Overall, the event industry is struggling to deal with the new hybrid normal, but event tools still haven’t evolved to truly provide a remote experience strong enough to overcome a lack of the social nature of inperson events. The promise of the metaverse is that it could step in and provide the perfect remote experience that could be as good or better than in-person, but outside of simulations where it is performing well, the Metaverse is still hampered by expectations that are decades ahead of where the technology is now. Let’s explore the train wreck of the events industry now and why we may eventually pivot back to in-person events as a result.
The concept of the metaverse as a virtual environment that is indistinguishable from reality is attractive but not yet available.
The problem Keynotes and product presentations can be done better remotely than in person. In fact, many attendees would go to their hotel rooms and stream them because taking notes remotely is far easier than in person. Microsoft has showcased the advantage of having its own video production capabilities because those virtual events in terms of targeted content, entertainment value, and execution exceed most others I’ve seen so far this year. But as good as product presentations and oneto-many events are virtually, the problem that hasn’t been effectively addressed is how to build relationships. The most beneficial part of in-per-
son events are often the social events that surround the shows, which allow people to meet vendors and peers and create new relationships that can assist them in their jobs and careers.
Metaverse promise As I said earlier, the concept of the metaverse as a virtual environment that is indistinguishable from reality is attractive but not yet available. In addition, the typical hardware you need for the experience (two controllers and VR headset) don’t feel real, and the next generation of hardware, which includes haptic gloves and higher resolution headsets, is still far removed from the level of reality the metaverse promises. In addition, the avatar technology is on the wrong side of the uncanny valley. The uncanny valley refers to an image that closely mimics a human but appears just enough off to be disturbing. Having a conversation with someone that looks like a mannequin has not created the collaborative relationship-building experience that the market hoped for. We are technically capable of creating photorealistic avatars, we just can’t yet do that at scale, and the use of headsets and other prosthetics to interact with the metaverse doesn’t yet feel real either. While metaverse shops like Meta are building their platforms, they seem to be ignoring this problem and are rushing to market with inadequate virtual solutions that are almost certain to miss expectations and still fall short of the organizational needs for relationship-building. Ironically, Meta, which was previously known as Facebook, is the most powerful social media company, but it still doesn’t get what social media is supposed to be, that it isn’t just an ad platform.
Wrapping up: The bigger problem Cisco and Dell stand out as the most aggressive at attempting to solve the problem of social engagement. Cisco is instrumenting its workers by providing information to managers that help them better address remote worker concerns and shortcomings. Dell has put in place managers who are focused on assuring employees who are coming into the office will have at least some peers there at the same time for personal interaction and to reconfirm these employees are valued. z
