Reality check Which Top 25 teams will flop?

third time in program history. Can Matt Campbell’s program continue to outperform its DNA?

No. 8 Cincinnati (9-1)

Opener: vs, Miami, Ohio, Sept. 4. Reality check: The Bearcats have finished ranked each of the last three seasons under coach Luke Fickell, improving each season. They’re loaded for another run in the American Athletic Conference, with nonconference games at No. 17 Indiana and No. 9 Notre Dame likely to determine just how high they can go in 2021.

No. 9 Notre Dame (10-2)

Opener: at Florida State, Sept. 5. Reality check: The Fighting Irish have finished the season ranked four straight seasons. The last time that happened was when Lou Holtz’s teams ended seven straight seasons ranked from 1987-1993.

No. 10 North Carolina (8-4)

Opener: at Virginia Tech, Sept. 3. Reality check: Coach Mack Brown tries to make it two straight seasons with a ranked finish for the Tar Heels. That hasn’t been done in Chapel Hill since the final two seasons of Brown’s first stint at UNC in 1996-97.

Southern California head coach Clay Helton talks to a referee during a game against Arizona last November. Since 2010, the Trojans have had four seasons that started ranked and ended unranked.

been a lot of buzz around the Ducks because of the way coach Mario Cristobal has been recruiting, but Oregon has finished a season ranked just once in the last five years.

No. 12 Wisconsin (4-3)

Opener: vs. No. 19 Penn State, Sept. 4. Reality check: In two of the last three seasons, Wisconsin started ranked and ended unranked. It’s happened a total of four time to the Badgers in the previous 13 seasons, but the last time Wisconsin went two straight seasons finishing outside the Top 25 was 2003.

No. 6 Texas A&M (9-1)

vs. Kent State, Sept.

No. 11 Oregon (4-3)

Opener: vs. Fresno State, Sept. 4. Reality check: There has

No. 13 Florida (8-4)

Heading into Opener: vs. Florida Atlantic, Jimbo Fisher’s fourth season Sept. 4. as coach, all signs are pointing Reality check: Coach Dan in the right direction for the Mullen has brought some Aggies. But A&M has only finished the season ranked five times this century and hasn’t had consecutive top-10 Proudlysupportingourlocal football teams! consistency with three straight ranked finishes, a first for Florida since Urban Meyer left after the 2010 season.

No. 14 Miami (8-3)

Opener: vs. No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta, Sept. 4. Reality check: There are many ways to describe how underwhelming the Hurricanes have been since joining the ACC in 2004, but how about this? Miami has finished the season ranked just six times as a member of the ACC and never better than 11th.

No. 15 USC (5-1)

Opener: vs. San Jose State, Sept. 4. Reality check: Since 2010, the Trojans have had four seasons that started ranked and ended unranked. Coach Clay Helton could have a hard time surviving another season at USC that doesn’t live up to expectations.

No. 16 LSU (5-5)

Opener: at UCLA, Sept. 4. Reality check: The Tigers became the first defending champions since Auburn in 2011 to finish the season outside the Top 25. There is talent for a bounce back in Baton Rouge.

No. 17 Indiana (6-2)

Opener: at No. 18 Iowa, Sept. 4. Reality check: Coach Tom Allen’s Hoosiers will try to become the first team in the history of the program to start and end the season ranked.

No. 18 Iowa (6-2)

Opener: vs. No. 17 Indiana, Sept. 4. Reality check: In 22 seasons under Kirk Ferentz, the Hawkeyes have neither finished four straight seasons ranked, nor had three straight seasons that began and ended in the AP poll. Iowa can accomplish both of those this season.

No. 19 Penn State (4-5)

Opener: at No. 12 Wisconsin, Sept. 4. Reality check: The Nittany Lions had a string of four straight Top 25 finishes snapped last year. There is reason to believe it was just a glitch, but a tricky early season schedule should reveal a lot.

No. 20 Washington (3-1)

Opener: vs. Montana, Sept. 4. Reality check: The Huskies seemed primed to settle into a perennial Top 25 team under coach Chris Petersen when they had three straight ranked finishes from 2015-18. Second-year coach Jimmy Lake is trying to prove the program’s slip was small.

No. 21 Texas (7-3)

Opener: vs. No. 23 Louisiana-Lafayette, Sept. 4. Reality check: Former Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian takes over a program that for all the drama has finished ranked three straight seasons for the first time since a 12-year run under Mack Brown from

No. 22 Coastal Carolina (11-1)

Opener: vs. The Citadel, Sept. 2. Reality check: The Chanticleers will try to follow up their magical 2020 season by becoming the first Sun Belt team to begin and finish a season ranked.

No. 23 LouisianaLafayette (10-1)

Opener: at No. 21 Texas, Sept. 4. Reality check: The Ragin’ Cajuns will try to follow up 21 victories in the last two seasons by becoming, yes, the first Sun Belt team to begin and finish a season ranked.

No. 24 Utah (3-2)

Opener: vs. Weber State, Sept. 2. Reality check: The Utes had a run of three straight seasons from 2014-16 in which they started the season unranked and finished ranked. Utah doesn’t get undervalued quite so much anymore. Like a lot of Pac-12 teams, the Utes bring back a boatload of experienced players.

No. 25 Arizona State (2-2)

Opener: vs. Southern Utah, Sept. 2. Reality check: The Sun Devils are ranked in the preseason for the first time since 2015. Arizona State has only had one season (2014) in the last 24 years that began and ended ranked.

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PIGSKIN PREVIEW AUGUST 2021  PAGE P26

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

GETTING HOT IN HERE

RALPH D. RUSSO | Associated Press

The conventional wisdom around this time last year was that a financial crunch brought on by the pandemic would discourage schools from laying out a multimillion-dollar buyout to fire a football coach. Conventional wisdom was wrong.

Arizona was on the hook for more than $7 million when it sacked Kevin Sumlin.

South Carolina paid a lump sum of $12.9 million to part ways with Will Muschamp.

Coaches under the most pressure to produce wins this season

Texas laid out $15.4 million to get rid of Tom Herman.

Auburn forked over more that $21 million to move on from Gus Malzahn.

Fifteen schools changed coaches, fewer than what has become a typical number across the Bowl Subdivision, but a lot more than what initially was expected.

The hot spots heading into this season include a coach who got a somewhat surprising reprieve, one who took a pay cut and, of course, Clay Helton.

Clay Helton, Southern California

Might as well start in Los Angeles, where Helton remarkably is entering his seventh season as Trojans coach. Helton’s status seemingly has been tenuous for the last three seasons. His 45-23 record is good, but Southern Cal wants great and has invested in assistant coaches and staff to support the well-respected coach. With only two more seasons left on his contract and a buyout that figures to be around $10 million, Helton is likely to have a high bar to clear in 2021 for No. 16 Southern Cal to keep him.

Jim Harbaugh, Michigan

Harbaugh took a big pay cut after Michigan went 2-4 last season. The former Michigan quarterback has not delivered success at the level expected when he returned to Ann Arbor. But not until last season did it look as if the program was regressing. Harbaugh will get another season with a revamped coaching staff to show he can change the trajectory, but incremental improvements in year seven might not be enough to get him to year eight.

Michigan and Southern Cal coming open at the same time could make for one wild coaching carousel, especially if Matt Campbell has another big season at Iowa State and becomes a top target.

Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech

The Hokies went to the Atlantic Coast Conference title game in Fuente’s first season as Frank Beamer’s replacement. He seemed like the perfect fit. Virginia Tech is 28-22 since. The Hokies went 5-6 last season and speculation about Fuente’s status was so intense that the announcement of a news conference with athletic director Whit Babcock the day before Fuente’s buyout was scheduled to drop in February caused the school to clarify that the coach was coming back. Fuente needs a big turnaround, but a tough early schedule and Virginia Tech’s recent recruiting rankings don’t suggest one is coming.

Matt Wells, Texas Tech

Red Raiders fans are getting restless. Tech has gone 11 straight seasons without a winning record in the Big 12 since Mike Leach was fired in 2009. Wells has been in Lubbock for two years, but he is just 8-14. Compounding the problem for Wells, a school that has become synonymous with proficient offenses has been pedestrian on that side of the ball. It’s one thing to be bad. It’s another to be boring.

Herm Edwards, Arizona State

Edwards has done OK on the field, going 17-13 in three seasons. This is the season the 25th-ranked Sun Devils have been building toward. They look like legitimate Pac-12 contenders. Off the field, the program is being investigated by the NCAA for possible recruiting violations. The question not only is can the 67-year-old former NFL coach survive the scandal, but does he even want to deal with it?

Dino Babers, Syracuse

The Orange won 10 games and finished No. 15 in the country in Babers’ third season. It now seems like a fluke. Syracuse is 14-33 in Babers’ other four seasons. This has become one the toughest jobs in the Power Five, and Babers has two more years after this left on his contract. Modest improvement could be enough to buy him another year, but even that will be tough to achieve.

It’s a big season for two much-hyped and well-paid Big Ten coaches: Nebraska’s Scott Frost and Purdue’s Jeff Brohm. Both have buyouts in the $20 million range that likely will provide some cover as long as their teams show some improvement. ... Amazingly, there are no obvious hot seats in the Southeastern Conference, but things could go sideways quickly at LSU for Ed Orgeron if the Tigers turn in another .500 season.