12th July,2013 TOP Contents - Tailored for YOU India Monsoon Rains 5% Below Average in Past Week, Aiding Planting Jul 11, 2013 In the first 5 months of the India monsoon rains were above average but have slowed to below average in the last week. Heavy rains early in the season caused flooding which did little to no damage to crops but resulted in thousands of people being evacuated and hundreds killed. The recent decline in rains is aiding in the planting of crops and as long as rains pick back up India should have a bumper monsoon crop season. Tags: India monsoon
Thailand Tries to Sell Rice Accumulated Under Mortgage Scheme; Farmers’ Group Proposes 1013% Paddy Price Cut as Compromise Jul 11, 2013 The Thai Ministry of Commerce will try to sell rice stocks accumulated under the nation’s rice mortgage scheme in: general auctions to private companies, through the Agricultural Futures Exchange (AFET), and through government-to-government sales. Thai rice stocks are estimated at about 17 million tons. For the auctions, private companies will submit price quotes next week. Previously the Thai government has said that it has sold about 7 million tons in governmentto-government deals but has failed to provide any details. The Thai Commerce Ministry plans to visit importing nations such as Indonesia, the Philippines, China, Iran, and Malaysia to facilitate government to government deals. However, Indonesia and the Philippines are trying to be self-sufficient in rice. China has bought mostly Vietnamese and Pakistani rice, which are quoted about $90 per ton and $20 per ton below Thai rice, respectively. Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown around $475 per ton while Pakistani 5% is indicated around $465 per ton and Viet 5% at $385 per ton.The Thai government has indicated it is still considering lowering the rice pledging price for the mortgage scheme. The head of the Thai Agriculturists Association, while resistant to the 20% cut in the pledging price considered in June (to 12,000 baht per ton), 1 Daily Rice E-Newsletter by Rice Plus Magazine www.ricepluss.com News and R&D Section mujajhid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell # 92 321 369 2874
suggested a compromise cut of 10-13% from the current price of 15,000 baht (about $480) per ton for white rice paddy to 13,000-13,500 baht (about $416-$433) per ton. Tags: Thailand rice mortgage scheme
U.S. House Approves 2013 Food Bill, but May Not Become Law Jul 11, 2013 The U.S. House of Representatives passed the five-year 2013 Farm Bill after it was stripped of food stamps spending. The bill passed 216-208 with all but 12 Republicans voting for the bill and all Democrats voting against the bill.A bill must pass both houses of Congress (the House and the Senate) by a majority vote. After it has passed out of Congress, it is sent along to the President. If the President signs the bill, it becomes law. President Obama has threatened to veto a farm bill if it excludes food stamp and nutrition programs. Tags: U.S. Food Bill
Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Find Support in Bullish USDA S&D, Positive Grain Complex Jul 11, 2013
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Chicago rough rice futures for September delivery settled 9 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) higher at $15.380 per cwt (about $339 per ton). Rough rice futures traded on either side of unchanged, as prices were seen higher overnight then initially dropped upon the release of today’s USDA S&D update and then once again moved higher in afternoon trading. Today’s report was seen as supportive to higher rice prices, however analysts think traders have already priced in the bullish data and thus there was only a slight move higher upon confirmation of tightening stocks.The USDA reported that all rice supplies in 2013/14 have been lowered 10.5m cwt (about 476,000 tons) or 4% to 235.6m cwt (about 10.7m tons), the lowest since 2000/01, as beginning stocks and production are lowered 1.5m cwt (about 68,000 tons) and 10m, respectively. The other grains finished higher today; soybeans finished the day about 0.5% higher at $12.9075 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.6% higher at $6.8300 per bushel; and corn finished the day about 1.1% higher at $5.2700 per bushel.U.S. stocks climbed back near session highs Thursday, propelling the Dow near its all-time high level, after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke emphasized the central bank intends to keep its stimulus measures for the foreseeable future. Both the Dow and S&P 500 crossed above their record closing levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied above its all-time closing high of 15,409.39. Most Dow components traded in positive territory. The S&P 500 was higher for a sixth-consecutive session, trading above its record closing level of 1,669.16. The S&P 500 is now on pace for its biggest weekly gain since January. The Nasdaq also jumped, while the Russell 2000 index hit a new all-time high for the fourth-straight session. All key S&P sectors were in positive territory, lifted by techs and materials. U.S. stock markets are currently trading up about 1.1%, gold is trading up about 2.8%, crude oil is seen about 1.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is about 1.5% lower at about 12:00pm Chicago time.Turning to the daily continuation chart of Chicago rough rice futures for September delivery, the market continued higher once again today before retracing about 15 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) off of the session high. After breaking through nearby technical resistance, seen at $15.392 per cwt (about $339 per ton) provided by the 100-day moving average prices flirted with secondary resistance from the 200-day moving average during morning trading. Ultimately selling pressure increased and prices dipped back below the point of nearby resistance where the ultimately came to rest. Today’s action provides further confirmation that prices have indeed taken on a bullish tilt, a move above the 20-day moving average would likely trigger additional technical buying as this level is seen as a key indicator of price direction. A move above would return the market to bullish territory. Today’s trading range is noted as $15.225-$15.435 per cwt (about $336-$340 per ton).Wednesday, there were 573 contracts traded, down from 801 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday increased by 10 contracts to 11,064. Tags: chicago rough rice futures
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China Analysts Estimate 2012-13 Crop Year Imports at 3.7 Million Tons; Project Higher Production, Ending Stocks in 2013-14 Jul 11, 2013 Analysts in China estimate the nation’s 2012-13 paddy production at 203 million tons, imports at 3.7 million tons, and consumption at 202 million tons. Ending stocks for 2012-13 are estimated at 92.65 million tons, suggesting a stocks-to-use ratio of about 46%.China’s current paddy stocks of about 102.3 million tons includes: state reserves (estimated at 63 million tons), millers’ stocks (11.3 million tons), traders’ stocks (12 million tons), and farm stocks (16 million tons). Stocks are typically lowest in May and peak in November. Chinese analysts estimate the nation’s rice milling yield at 68%, meaning milling 100 tons of paddy should yield 68 tons of rice. Paddy futures prices in China are today trading around RMB 2,610 (about $426) per ton for the September contract.For the 2013-14 crop year, analysts in China estimate the nation’s rice acreage at about 31 million hectares, producing 208 million tons of paddy, each up about 2% from the previous year. Ending stocks for 2013-14 are estimated at 98.99 million tons, up about 6.34 million tons or 7% y/y, raising the stocks-to-use ratio to about 48%. Tags: China rice production, China rice imports
Argentina Ships 159,925 Tons of Rice January-April, Down 6% from Last Year Jul 11, 2013
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Argentina has shipped 159,925 tons of rice January-April 2013, including 45,871 tons shipped in the month of April. The year-to-date average monthly export pace for 2013 is about 40,000 tons a month, down about 20% from an average monthly pace of about 50,000 tons in 2012. The Ministry of Agriculture reports that for the month of April, 2013 Argentina shipped: 23,162 tons to Brazil 17,145 tons to Iraq 2,400 tons to Peru 1,765 tons to Chile 715 tons to the U.S. 150 tons to Costa Rica 150 tons to Turkey 95 tons to Angora 72 tons to Russia 40 tons to Denmark 20 tons to Spain 19 tons to Uruguay Tags: Argentina rice exports
Vietnam, Pakistan Rice Sellers Increased Most of Their Quotes Today Jul 11, 2013 Vietnam rice sellers increased most of their quotes for summer-autumn crop 2013 by about $5 -$10 per ton today. Pakistan rice sellers increased most of their quotes for old crop by about $5 per ton today. Thailand and India rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged. 5% Broken Rice Thai 5% rice is quoted around $465 - $475 per ton, about a $85 per ton premium over Viet 5% rice (of summerautumn crop 2013) shown around $380 - $390 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. Indian 5% rice is quoted around $435 - $445 per ton, about a $15 per ton premium over Pak 5% rice (of new crop) quoted around $420-$430 per ton. Pak 5% rice of the old crop is shown around $460 - $470 per ton, up about 45 per ton from yesterday. 25% Broken Rice Thai 25% rice is quoted about $455 - $465 per ton, about a $105 per ton premium over Viet 25% rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $350 - $360 per ton, up about $10 per ton from yesterday. Indian 25% rice is quoted about $390 - $400 per ton, around $20 per ton premium over Pak 25% rice (of new crop) quoted around $370-$380 per ton. Pak 25% rice of the old crop is shown around $385 - $395 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. Parboiled Rice Thai parboiled rice is quoted around $520 - $530 per ton.
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Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $415 - $425 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Pak parboiled rice (of new crop) quoted around $425 - $435 per ton. Pak parboiled rice quotes of the old crop are unavailable today. 100% Broken Rice Thai broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted around $435 - $445 per ton, about a $100 per ton premium over Viet broken rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $335 - $345 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted about $315 - $325 per ton, about $40 per ton discount to Pak broken sortexed rice (of old crop) indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, up about $5 per ton yesterday. Pak broken sortexed rice quotes of the new crop are unavailable today. Tags: Asia rice quotes, India rice quotes, Pakistan rice quotes, Thailand rice quotes, Vietnam rice quotes
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Slightly Lower Ahead of USDA S&D Update Jul 11, 2013 Chicago rough rice futures for September delivery were paused 6.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $15.225 per cwt (about $336 per ton) as of 8:15am Chicago time. The other grains are seen mostly higher during this morning break ahead of floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently trading about 0.2% lower, wheat is seen 0.7% higher, and corn is seen about 0.1% higher.U.S. stock index futures were sharply higher Thursday, with major averages set to open at all-time highs, after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke emphasized the central bank intends to keep its stimulus measures for the foreseeable future. Speaking at a conference after the market close Wednesday, Bernanke said monetary policy would remain accommodative for the foreseeable future, even if the unemployment rate hit the Fed's target of 6.5%. This came after the publication of minutes from the Fed's latest policy meeting, which showed that policymakers want further reassurances about the strength of the jobs market before pulling back on stimulus measures. However, some analysts flagged concerns after reading the policy meeting notes. On the economic front, weekly jobless claims rose by 16,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 360,000, according to the Labor Department, above expectations for a reading of 340,000. The four-week moving average of new claims increased by a more modest 6,000 to 351,750. Meanwhile, import and export prices declined for the fourthstraight month in June, according to the Labor Department. The Treasury will sell $13 billion of 30-year bonds with the results available shortly after 1pm ET. U.S. stock index futures are currently trading up about 0.8%, gold is currently trading up about 3%, crude oil is seen trading about 0.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 1% lower at 8:15am Chicago time.USDA today said in the week ending July 4, U.S. rice exporters sold 5,900 tons of rice for the 2012/13 marketing year, a marketing year low, including 2,100 tons to Saudi Arabia, 1,300 tons to Mexico, 1,000 tons to Canada, 400 tons to Hong Kong, and 200 tons to Micronesia. During the same week U.S. exporters shipped 11,200 tons, down 88% from the previous week and 87% from the prior 4-week average, including 3,700 tons to Mexico, 1,700 tons to Saudi Arabia, 1,300 tons to South Korea, 1,200 tons. 7 Daily Rice E-Newsletter by Rice Plus Magazine www.ricepluss.com News and R&D Section mujajhid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell # 92 321 369 2874
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Bids Increase After USDA Cuts 2013/14 Ending Stocks; Weekly Export Seen at Marking-Year Low Jul 11, 2013 The U.S. cash rice market was somewhat active today as bids increased after the USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate decreased their 2013/14 ending stocks projection to 17.9 million cwts, which would be the lowest carry out in the last 10 years.As of today, old crop offer from farmers could be found as low as $16.50 per cwt delivered (about $364 per ton) for July shipment while offers from resellers increased with the futures market to less attractive levels however buyers continue to show zero interest in these offers as the cost of loading out Chicago Board of Trade warehouse receipts remains more attractive.Bids from mills and exporters increased to around $16.10 per cwt (about $355 per ton) for July delivery however they were unwilling to come off of their price ideas to make a trade. As for new crop, most offers were unchanged near $15.55-$16.11 per cwt fob farm (about $343-$355 per ton) while bids increased to around $14.70-$15.20 per cwt (about $324-$335 per ton) for October-NovemberDecember delivery while at least one trade was reported to have occurred around $15.25 per cwt delivered (about $336 per ton).In the meantime, today the USDA reported that for the week ending on July 4th, U.S. rice exporters sold 5,900 tons, which was a marketing year low, with the primary destinations including: 2,100 tons to Saudi Arabia, 1,300 tons to Mexico, and 1,000 tons to Canada, 400 tons to Hong Kong, and 200 MT to Micronesia.U.S. rice exporters shipped 11,200 tons, which was 88% lower than last week and 87% lower than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included: 3,700 tons to Mexico, 1,700 tons to Saudi Arabia, 1,300 tons to South Korea, 1,200 tons to Canada, and 1,200 tons to Israel. Tags: U.S. rice prices
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Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Euro Up Nearly 1%; Mexico Peso Up 0.8%; Thailand Baht Up 0.5% Jul 11, 2013 • U.S. dollar index was down -1.52% from the open today, when it traded at 82.773 at the close. • Euro was +0.99% stronger today by the close, trading around 1.3107 by end of day, after trading between an intraday high of 1.3207 and low of 1.2963. Comments by U.S. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke seem to be driving the dollar weakness. • Thai baht was +0.51% stronger today, trading at 31.09 at the close of business. • Indian rupee was weaker -0.04% at the close today when it traded at 59.6813. • Brazilian real was +0.27% stronger than the open at today’s close, when it ended at 2.2584 reais per dollar. • Pakistan rupee was +0.02% stronger at the close today, when it traded at 100.0815. • Vietnamese dong was +0.05% stronger at 21,233. • Mexican peso was +0.82% stronger today, when it traded at 12.7970 pesos per dollar by the close of business today. • Chinese yuan was +0.05% stronger today, when it traded by close at 6.1317. • Argentine peso was -0.09% weaker from the open today at the close, when it traded at 5.4185 pesos per dollar. Tags: foreign exchange rates
Oryza Quick Glance at MDA Rice Crop Weather Update Jul 11, 2013
Oryza shares some of MDA’s latest rice crop weather updates: Heavy rains are expected in North China Plain and the eastern Yangtze Valley this week. Heavy rain are expected in North Japan this week, favoring rice crop there. Heavy rains are expected in central, northern and western part of India this week. 9 Daily Rice E-Newsletter by Rice Plus Magazine www.ricepluss.com News and R&D Section mujajhid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell # 92 321 369 2874
More rains are expected in Bangladesh, which may disrupt the Aus rice harvest. Light showers are expected in Pakistan this week. Rainfall is expected in most parts of Indonesia this week, favoring rice crop there. Some rainfall are expected in southern Vietnam this week, will be good for rice planting. Continued rainfall will improve moisture supplies for rice crop and will benefit the rice planting in Thailand this week. Rainfall is expected in most parts of the Philippines this week, favoring rice crop there. Rainfall is expected to continue in Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon this week. Continued light rainfall this week in northeastern Mozambique and northwestern Madagascar will affect the rice crop growth. Heavy rains are expected in northern and northeastern Brazil, which may affect rice harvesting there. Continued rainfall will improve moisture supplies in Center south Brazil this week. Light Rainfall will favor rice crop in Argentina and Uruguay this week. Continued light rainfall this week across all parts of U.S. may improve moisture supplies for rice. For more complete weather information, contact: www.mdaus.com. Tags: weather
Oryza Quick Glance at World News Jul 11, 2013 Financial Times • The Bank of Japan issued a more upbeat assessment of the Japanese economy on Thursday, saying for the first time in more than two years that conditions were “recovering.” • The minutes of Fed's most recent meeting show that Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, was not signaling a definite “tapering” of quantitative easing from $85 billion a month at his June press conference but trying to be clearer about the conditions that would trigger it. Moreover, according to the minutes, “several” voting members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee thought asset purchases should slow down soon, but “many” wanted to see a further improvement in the jobs market first. • UBS has overtaken Bank of America as the largest wealth manager in the world amid a return to growth that has taken the sector back above pre-crisis levels. Switzerland’s largest bank by market value 10 Daily Rice E-Newsletter by Rice Plus Magazine www.ricepluss.com News and R&D Section mujajhid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell # 92 321 369 2874
increased its assets under management 9.7% in the past year to $1.7 trillion, according to a ranking by Scorpio Partnership, a consultancy, and research group. • Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pledged a total of $8 billion to Egypt to help prop up its ailing economy, highlighting the shake-up in regional political power after last week’s military coup in Cairo. • China and the U.S., the world’s largest polluters, have drafted a five-part plan to cut their carbon emissions, pledging to make heavy-duty vehicles more efficient and do more to limit the output from coal-fired plants. • Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg and the EU’s longest-serving premier, called a snap election on Wednesday after being embroiled in a spying scandal that has shaken the Grand Duchy. • Russia’s $10 billion state-backed fund has appointed the new head of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, Ahmad Mohamed Al-Sayed, to its international advisory board, in a move signaling a possible cooperation between the two investors. • OPEC, the oil producers’ cartel, expects demand for its crude to hit a five-year low next year as the U.S. shale boom continues to eat into its share of the global market. Wall Street Journal • India, the world's largest edible-oil importer, is considering raising the import tax on refined products to prevent increasing supplies from Indonesia and Malaysia which hurt local refiners already struggling to generate profits, according to government officials. • The deputy chief of security for Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari was assassinated in a suicide-bomb attack in Karachi on Wednesday, the latest political killing to shake up the country's largest metropolis, police officials said. • Highly radioactive groundwater recently discovered in test wells at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant is likely spreading at the site and leaking into adjoining ocean waters, Japan's nuclear regulator said, raising more worries about the plant operator's efforts to clean up the disaster site. • India's ambition to build its own passenger planes received a boost after the government gave the goahead for a project to develop initially a 70-100 seat aircraft. • Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Gap Inc. and more than a dozen other North American retailers said Wednesday that they struck a five-year deal to improve worker safety in Bangladesh following a deadly garmentfactory collapse in April. • The Federal Aviation Administration, facing a congressional deadline at the end of the month, said it would mandate tougher training and experience requirements for current and future airline co-pilots. • Lawmakers at the European Parliament on Wednesday approved a ban on menthol and other flavored cigarettes as part of broad legislation that will sharply restrict how tobacco products can be sold across the 28-nation EU. • The Brazilian Central Bank on Wednesday raised its key interest rate by a half-point to 8.5%, as expected, as part of a battle to tamp down persistent inflation, even as economic growth remains sluggish. New York Times
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U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel offered Congress his first formal description of the impact on the Pentagon if across-the-board budget cuts are not lifted by October, writing in a letter on Wednesday that the effectiveness of jet fighter wings, ground combat units, and even Special Operations forces would plummet. The secretary general of the U.N., Ban Ki-moon, warned the Myanmar government on Wednesday of “dangerous polarization” between Buddhists and Muslims and urged the leaders of the Buddhistmajority country to resolve the question of citizenship for the nearly one million stateless Muslims near the border with Bangladesh. Rainstorms that are said to be the worst in five decades have flooded large areas of southwest China, washing out bridges, setting off a landslide that buried dozens of people and destroying a memorial to victims of the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province that flattened large parts of the same area. South Korean factory managers returned Wednesday to a shuttered industrial park in North Korea for the first time in two months as the two governments tried again but failed to agree on terms for reopening the complex, once an iconic symbol of inter-Korean economic cooperation. Executives of British drug maker GlaxoSmithKline Plc in China have confessed to charges of bribery and tax law violations after initial questioning by Chinese police, China's security ministry said on Thursday. In a sign of Italy’s political fragility, the coalition government of Prime Minister Enrico Letta came under heavy strain on Wednesday, when the main center-right party of the former Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi, called for a timeout from Parliament to discuss an impending court ruling for Mr. Berlusconi and its political consequences.
Tags: World news
Oryza Global Rice Quotes- July 12th, 2013 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade
480-490
Long grain white rice - low quality ↔
Thailand 25% broken
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455-465
↔
Vietnam 5% broken
380-390
↔
Vietnam 25% broken
350-360
↔
broken
435-445
↔
Pakistan 25% broken
385-395
↔
Pakistan 5% broken
460-470
↔
India 25% broken
390-400
↔
610-620 620-630 620-630
↔ ↔ ↔
U.S. Calrose 4% broken
600-610
↔
India 5%
broken Uruguay 5% broken Argentina 5% broken
U.S. 4%
Long grain parboiled rice
Brokens
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd
530-540
↑
Thailand A1 Super
435-445
↔
445-455
↔
335-345
↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd U.S. parboiled 4% broken
415-425 660-670
↔ ↔
355-365 315-325
↔ ↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken Uruguay parboiled 5% broken
605-615 NQ
↔ ↔
Vietnam 100% broken Pakistan 100% broken stxd India 100% Broken stxd Egypt medium grain brokens U.S. pet food Brazil half grain
NQ 335-345 355-365
↔ ↔ ↔
Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% Vietnam Jasmine India basmati 2% broken Pakistan basmati 2% broken
1070-1080 540-550 1515 -1525 NQ
Medium grain milled ↔ U.S. Calrose 4% broken ↔ Egypt medium grain 6% ↔ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
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685-695 NQ
↔ ↔
For Advertising SPECS & RATES Contact: Advertising Department Mujahid Ali mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com +92 321 369 2874
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