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Daily December 16, 2014
Exclusive ORYZA E-Newsletter
DAILYCompiled EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER & Edited by Riceplus Magazine
December 16, 2014 Vol 4 Issue XI
Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
News Headlines… Brazil Paddy Rice Index Declines Slightly from Last Week Rice Prices Are Expected to Decline in Saudi Arabia, After Crude Prices Plunged 48% in the Last Eight Months USDA Post Estimates India MY 2014-15 Rice Exports at 8.7 Million Tons; Down 16% from Last Year Thailand Attorney General Seeks More Evidence to Conclude Prosecution of Ex-Premier USDA Post Forecasts Ghana MY 2014-15 Rice Imports to Decline 7% y/y to 600,000 Tons Weekly Recap: Oryza White Rice Index Declines, Pulled Lower by Thailand, Pakistan Quotes
News Detail…
Brazil Paddy Rice Index Declines Slightly from Last Week Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Dec 16, 2014
The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by CEPEA reached around 37.91 real per 50 kilograms as of December 15, 2014, down about 0.11% from around 37.95 real per 50 kilograms recorded on December 8, 2014.In terms of USD per ton, the index reached around $283 per ton on December 15, 2014, down about 3% from around $292 per ton recorded on December 16, 2014. Tags: Brazil paddy rice index,Brazil CEPEA index
Rice Prices Are Expected to Decline in Saudi Arabia, After Crude Prices Plunged 48% in the Last Eight Months Dec 14, 2014
Rice prices are expected to fall by about 5%-10% in Saudi Arabia in coming months due to a near 50% plunge in oil prices, according to the local rice traders. Brent crude oil futures fell from around $117 per ton in June to around $60 per barrel today. Traders say prices are also likely to soften after rice price hikes in Saudi Arabia in last few months are now seen as „unjustified‟ since rice prices in India have remained stable. Lower crude oil prices could dampen rice prices in other oil export nations as well.Saudi Arabia imports about 1.5 - 2 million tons rice annually from India, of which about 70-80% is basmati rice. Saudia Arabia accounts for about 20% of India‟s rice exports.Meanwhile, rice traders in India said rice prices there will not increase Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
anytime soon as rice production was not restricted by El Nino in the last growing season and Thai and Viet rice prices have remained under pressure due to excess Thai rice stocks accumulated under the rice mortgage scheme. Tags: crude oil prices,saudi arabia,India,Rice Prices,Basmati rice
USDA Post Estimates India MY 2014-15 Rice Exports at 8.7 Million Tons; Down 16% from Last Year Dec 16, 2014
USDA Post has estimated India's MY 2014-15 (October - September) rice exports at around 8.7 million tons, down about 16% from an estimated 10.3 million tons last year due to anticipated decline in supplies from low production and competition from other rice exporting countries.Based on preliminary export figures, India's rice exports during January-October 2014 stood at around 8.8 million tons, down about 1% from around 8.9 million tons exported during the same period last year. The Post quoted market sources as saying that exports have been steady to Sri Lanka and the traditional markets in Africa and the Middle East. The Post expects India's rice exports in 2014 to reach about 10.5 million tons. The Post estimates MY 2014-15 rice production at around 102 million tons based on government procurement and early market arrival trends. Harvesting of the Kharif rice crop is almost complete and planting for Rabi rice crop is just beginning in north-eastern states.India government procured around 10.7 million tons of rice in kharif Marketing Season (KMS) 201415 as of November 30, 2014, down about 4% from around 11.1 million tons procured during the same period last year. Punjab (7.7 million tons) and Haryana (1.99 million tons) remained top contributors for the Central Pool so far, according to the Post. According to market sources, India government rice procurement in MY 2014-15 is likely to be 6-12% lower than last year's procurement of around 31.9 million tons, says USDA Post. Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
The Post expects the current-year new-crop rice procurement would be sufficient to meet the government's minimum requirement for its public distribution system and other feeding programs in 2014-15.Indiaâ€&#x;s rice stocks in the central pool as of December 1, 2014 stood at around 21.57 million tons (including a milled equivalent of about 16.89 million tons of paddy), down about 23% from around 28.19 million tons recorded during the same time last year, according to data from the Food Corporation of India (FCI). Tags: India rice exports,India rice production,India rice procurement,India rice stocks
Thailand Attorney General Seeks More Evidence to Conclude Prosecution of ExPremier Dec 16, 2014
Thailand's Attorney General has sought more evidences from the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) to conclude the prosecution of the former Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra in the controversial rice pledging scheme, according to local sources.The Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) spokesman and the Director-general of the OAG's litigation department reportedly told at a press conference that the Attorney General agreed with the findings of an OAG working group that the case in its present form was incomplete and more people needed to be questioned before indicting the former PM. They noted that information over government-to-government (G2G) transactions was not clear and so more evidence is needed in this regard. Last week, the NACC Chairman told local sources that the investigation committee has completed all the formalities relating to gathering adequate evidences and questioning of witnesses, including the former Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom and his then-deputy Phum Sarapol. The NACC accused that the former Ministers allegedly struck a G2G deal with the Chinese government to sell rice pledged under the rice pledging scheme. Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
It is understood that the NACC Commissioner is in China to seek evidences from the Chinese officials who apparently signed G2G deals with Thailand during Yingluck's rein.The former Prime Minister (PM) is also facing charges of ignoring warnings against misdealing in the controversial rice pledging scheme, which brought losses of over 500 billion baht (around $15.6 billion) to the exchequer. Tags: Thai rice pledging scheme,Yingluck Shinawatra,NACC,Thai OAG
USDA Post Forecasts Ghana MY 2014-15 Rice Imports to Decline 7% y/y to 600,000 Tons Dec 16, 2014
The USDA Post has forecasted Ghana's MY 2014-15 (October September) rice imports at around 600,000 tons, down about 7% from around 644,000 tons last year due to increasing prices of imported rice resulting from the rapid depreciation of Ghana currency against the U.S. dollar. The Post finds that demand for rice has been increasing due to persisting shortfall in production. Share of U.S. rice in Ghana's rice imports has declined by about 77% to around $16.9 million in 2013-14 from around $73.3 million in 2011-12 due to high prices of U.S. rice. But due to increasing demand, the Post expects the U.S. to resume its exports to Ghana in 2015. Currently, Vietnam accounts for about 46% of Ghana's rice imports, Thailand accounts for about 22%, the Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
U.S. accounts for about 18% and other countries such as China, Pakistan, India, and Korea account for about 14%. Due to supply irregularities, Ghana markets are dominated by imported rice rather that the locally grown rice, according to the Post. Yet, to discourage imports, the government levies 20% duty, 17.5% Value Added Tax (VAT), 2.5% National Health Insurance Levy (NHIL), 0.5% Export Development and Investment Fund Levy (EDIF), 1% Inspection fee, 0.5% ECOWAS Levy and 0.4% Ghana Customs Network fee on rice imports. The Post forecasts, Ghana's MY 2014-15 rice production at around 300,000 tons, up about 3% from around 290,000 tons last year and about 9% lower than USDA's official estimates of around 330,000 tons due to adequate and timely rains in all rice-growing regions as well as the government support by way of introducing improved high yielding, disease resistant rice varieties to producers and assisting them to adopt low cost water management techniques.USDA Post estimates Ghana's MY 2014-15 paddy rice acreage to increase to around 195,000 hectares, up about 3% from around 190,000 hectares last year, and about 2.5% down from USDA's official estimates of around 200,000 hectares. The Post rice consumption in the country to increase about 12% to around 950,000 tons from around 850,000 tons last year due to continuing increase in preference for rice. Ghanaians prefer imported rice despite higher prices due to its high quality and taste. Tags: Ghana rice imports,Ghana rice production,Ghana rice consumption
Weekly Recap: Oryza White Rice Index Declines, Pulled Lower by Thailand, Pakistan Quotes Dec 15, 2014
The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended the week at about $436 per ton, down about $2 per ton from a week ago, down about $17 per ton from a month ago and down about $24 per ton from a year ago. Thailand Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $405 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
week and a month ago, and up about $10 per ton from a year ago. In the first ten months of 2014, Thailand has exported about 8.77 million tons of rice, about 62% more than the same period in 2013.The government of Thailand plans to auction 400,000 tons of stockpiled rice on December 22, according to Bloomberg.The Rice Policy and Management Committee, headed by the Thai Prime Minister, has approved the on-farm pledging program for 2014-15 paddy main-crop fragrant and glutinous rice, to limit downward pressure on prices during harvest. India India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $400 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $15 per ton from a month and a year ago.Rice stocks in the central pool are 21.57 million tons as of December 1, down about 23% from last year.Scientists at the Bihar Agriculture University have developed a new drought-resistant rice variety known as “Sabour Ardhjal.�
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Vietnam Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $390 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $45 per ton from a month ago and down about $35 per ton from a year ago. Vietnam has exported about 599,948 tons of rice in October 2014, down slightly from September but up about 15% from October 2013. During the first eleven months of 2014, the country has exported about 5.843 million tons of rice, down about 5% from the same time last year. Average rice export price so far this year stands at about $439 per ton (FOB), up about 2% per ton from the same time last year. Pakistan Pakistan 5% broken rice today shown at about $375 per ton, down about $10 per ton from a week ago, down about $25 per ton from a month ago and down about $10 per ton from a year ago. The Pakistan government needs to enhance investment in research in order to meet the current rice sector challenges, according to the President of the Pakistan Basmati Growers Association. The rice sector there has stressed the importance of improving rice quality and modernizing harvesting and milling technology in the country. Central & South America Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $550 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago and down about $135 per ton from a year ago. Brazil has exported about 1.19 million tons of rice during January-November 2014, with about 17% of that going to Venezuela. Conab estimates Brazilâ€&#x;s 2014-15 paddy rice production to be about 12.21 million tons, up slightly from last year. Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $600 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago and down about $30 per ton from a year ago. Argentina has exported about 447,333 tons of rice in the first nine months of 2014, up about 9% from the same period last year. The government in Mexico has decided to impose a 20% duty on Asian rice imports starting January 10, 2015. This marks the first time in six years the Mexican government is imposing a duty on rice imports. Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
U.S. U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $545 per ton, unchanged from a week and a month ago, and down about $45 per ton from a year ago. The USDA has forecasted U.S. MY 2014-15 rice exports at 4.67 million tons, up about 10% from last year. The increase is mostly due to a 9% y/y increase in long-grain rice exports. The U.S. cash market stayed quiet this week despite reports of increasing exports and a weaker futures market. Farmers are still looking for $13.33 per cwt fob farm (about $294 per ton), but bids are at least $1.00 per cwt lower. Chicago rough rice futures for January delivery were relatively range-bound this week, slipping slightly throughout the week before settling a little higher on Friday and closing at $12.285 per cwt (about $271 per ton). Other Markets Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $465 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $5 per ton from a month ago and up about $5 per ton from a year ago. Myanmar exported about 799,600 tons of rice in April-November of FY 2014-15, up about 75% from the same period last year. The country plans to release its National Export Strategy in January. Iran will resume rice imports in February 2015, according to global business consultant Mustapha Pakzad. Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby), which reportedly damaged about 2,034 tons of paddy rice in the Philippines, may not impact the overall paddy rice output in the first quarter of 2015, according to the Philippines Agriculture Undersecretary. The Agriculture Ministry of Fiji has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the government in China to provide a boost to the governmentâ€&#x;s Rice Revitalization Program. The USDA Post estimates that South Korea will import about 560,000 tons of rice in MY 201415 (November-October), more than doubling its imports from last year. China plans to import more rice in 2014 due to current low prices, according to a post on the governmentâ€&#x;s website. Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Tags: oryza white rice index,weeky recap
Global Rice Quotes December 16th, 2014 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 420-430
↔
Vietnam 5% broken
385-395
↔
India 5% broken
390-400
↓
Pakistan 5% broken
370-380
↔
Cambodia 5% broken
460-470
↔
U.S. 4% broken
540-550
↔
Uruguay 5% broken
595-605
↔
Argentina 5% broken
595-605
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality ↔
Thailand 25% broken
NQ
Vietnam 25% broken
350-360
↔
Pakistan 25% broken
330-340
↔
Cambodia 25% broken 435-445
↔
India 25% broken
350-360
↓
U.S. 15% broken
515-525
↔
Long grain parboiled rice
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December 16, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd
405-415
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd
↔
410-420
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 375-385
↓
U.S. parboiled 4% broken
580-590
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken
570-580
↔
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
↔
↔
Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% Vietnam Jasmine
900-910 515-525
↔
India basmati 2% broken
NQ
↔
Pakistan basmati 2% broken
NQ
↔
Cambodia Phka Mails 820-830
↔
↔
Brokens 330-340
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 330-340
↔
Thailand A1 Super
Pakistan 100% broken stxd Cambodia A1 Super
290-300
385-395
↔
India 100% broken stxd
300-310
Egypt medium grain brokens
NQ
U.S. pet food
↔
445-455
Brazil half grain
NQ
↔
↔
↔
↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
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