17th October, 2014
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Latest News Headlines…
Thailand Considers Measures to Stabilize Fragrant Rice Prices Brazil Exports 902,502 Tons of Rice in First Nine Months of 2014 Global Rice Quotes Egypt Approves Rice Exports with Conditions Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue to Come under Pressure from Bears India 2014-15 Rice Exports Forecasted at 11 Million Tons, Up 8.5% from Last Year South Korea to Buy 180,000 Tons of Surplus Rice to Prevent Oversupply in Domestic Market USDA Forecasts 2014 Global Rice Trade at 41.2 Million Tons, Up 5% from Last Year Oryza Global Weekly Weather Recap Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Little Changed as Market Lacks Direction Vietnam Rice Quotes Mixed Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged USDA Forecasts 2014-15 Global Milled Rice Production at 475.5 Million Tons, Slightly Down from Last Year
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Thailand Considers Measures to Stabilize Fragrant Rice Prices Oct 16, 2014
The Thai government is considering measures to stabilize the prices of fragrant Hom Mali rice to ensure definite income to farmers, according to local sources.The Commerce Minister told local sources that the government will take certain measures to stabilize the price of Thai Hom Mali rice at around 15,000 - 16,000 baht (around $461$492) per ton. The prescribed rate called the 'median rate' will be announced after approval from the National Rice Policy Committee, he said. The Minister noted that millers and exporters should buy Hom Mali rice from farmers at the 'median rate' and farmers are also educated about the 'median rate' so that they don't end up selling at a
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loss. He added that the duration of the 'median price' will depend on global prices. The government is encouraging farmers to store their harvest to delay sales to control downward pressure on prices by providing low-interest loans. Farmers are also encouraged to work closely with exporters to increase Hom Mali rice exports to markets such as China, Africa and the ASEAN. The government estimates the Thai Hom Mali rice production at about 6 million tons this year.Meanwhile, the Minister for Agriculture and Cooperatives called for an overhaul of all rice production processes in order to increase quality as well as prices of rice, according to local sources. He was quoted as saying that the prevailing low prices of rice are due to lower quality and therefore the focus should be laid on increasing the quality of rice at the production, especially be adopting modern rice growing methods. He also noted that farmers could use modern practices of crop research, cultivation and harvesting to ensure optimal rice moisture and soil compatibility. Tags: Thai rice prices, Thai fragrant rice prices, Thai fragrant rice production
Brazil Exports 902,502 Tons of Rice in First Nine Months of 2014 Oct 16, 2014
Brazil has exported around 902,502 tons of rice in January - September 2014 according to data released by the Rice Institute of Rio Grande do Sul (IRGA).Venezuela remained the largest importer of Brazilian rice in January - September 2014 with 141,524 tons, or about 16% of total Brazil's rice exports during the period. Cuba accounted for 115,329 tons (about 13% of total Brazil's exports during the first nine months of 2014); Sierra Leone accounted for 98,747 tons (about 11% of total Brazil's exports during the nine-month period); Senegal accounted for around 98,738 tons (about 11% of Brazil's exports during the nine-month period); and
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Gambia and Nicaragua accounted for 10% and 7% of total rice exports during the January - September 2014 period with 90,782 tons and 65,739 tons respectively. Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 11.99 million tons (around 8.15 million tons, basis milled), down about 1.4% from around 12.162 million tons (around 8.27 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14. USDA estimates Brazil MY 2014-15 (April – March) paddy rice production at around 12.28 million tons (around 8.35 million tons, basis milled), slightly up from around 12.2 million tons (around 8.3 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2013-14. It estimates Brazil’s 2014-15 paddy rice acreage at around 2.45 million tons, up about 2% from around 2.4 million tons produced in MY 2013-14. USDA estimates Brazil to export around 900,000 tons of rice and import around 700,000 tons of rice in 2014. Tags: Brazil rice exports, Brazil rice production, Brazil rice acreage
Global Rice Quotes October 16th, 2014 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 435-445 Vietnam 5% broken 430-440 ↓ India 5% broken 415-425 ↔ Pakistan 5% broken 395-405 ↔ Cambodia 5% broken 465-475 ↔ U.S. 4% broken 515-525 ↓ Uruguay 5% broken 595-605 ↔ Argentina 5% broken 595-605 ↔ Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken NQ ↔ Vietnam 25% broken 395-405 ↓ Pakistan 25% broken 345-355 ↔ Cambodia 25% broken 450-460 India 25% broken 370-380 ↔ U.S. 15% broken 510-520 ↔
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Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 420-430 Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 425-435 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 U.S. parboiled 4% broken 580-590 ↓ Brazil parboiled 5% broken 595-605 ↔ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 1015-1025 Vietnam Jasmine 580-590 ↑ India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Cambodia Phka Malis 880-890 Brokens Thailand A1 Super 340-350 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 330-340 Pakistan 100% broken stxd 320-330 Cambodia A1 Super 360-370 ↔ India 100% Broken stxd 320-330 Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔ U.S. pet food 445-455 ↔ Brazil half grain NQ ↔
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All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Egypt Approves Rice Exports with Conditions Oct 16, 2014
The Egyptian government has approved plans to allow rice exports in MY 2014-15 with certain conditions, according to Reuters.In September 2014, Bloomberg quoted a statement from Cabinet as saying that the government was planning to allow exports until September 2015 or until they reach 1 million tons, whichever is earlier.In the latest development, the government sources told reporters that the government has set few conditions for exporting
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companies. It requires them to sell one ton of medium-grain rice at about 2,000 Egyptian pounds (around $279) for every ton of rice they export. It also requires the exporting companies to pay an export tariff of around $280 per ton of rice exported.Egypt is expected to produce around 4.3 million tons of rice this year, while the country's consumption needs are at around 3.3 million tons. Therefore the country has around 1 million tons of surplus rice, which can be exported. Moreover, Egyptian medium-grain rice has a good reputation among the Middle-East countries and is treated on par with the U.S. and Australian rice in international markets.While the government's decision to end the export ban, which began in 2011, is being welcomed by traders as well as many Middle-East customers, the Head of the rice committee of Egypt's Agricultural Export Council expressed concerns that the two conditions set by the government may hinder exports. He noted that traders spend around 3,200 Egyptian pounds (around $446) for procuring and packaging a ton of medium-grain rice, and they have to pay about $560 (for export tariff and sales to government) to the government to export one ton of rice. A ton of Egyptian medium-grain rice fetches around $800 in international markets, he added. He says exporters may not find it lucrative to export rice unless they can export rice at around $1,200, which would be unrealistic to think about. Some exporters noted that reinstating of exports would end the contraband trade with other neighboring countries, which has been creating large price differences between domestic and export markets. Meanwhile, Middle East countries expressed joy that the end of ban by Egypt would take little time to import rice from Egypt compared to time taken to import from the U.S. or Australia.USDA estimates Egypt to produce 4.9 million tons of milled rice and export around 875,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (October - September). Tags: Egypt rice exports, Egypt rice export ban
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Continue to Come under Pressure from Bears Oct 16, 2014
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Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery settled 8 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at $12.510 per cwt (about $276 per ton). The other grains rallied today in an attempt to recover from recent losses; Soybeans closed about 1.5% higher at $9.6650 per bushel; wheat finished about 2.2% higher at $5.1700 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.4% higher at $3.5225 per bushel. U.S. stocks fluctuated after erasing sizable losses on Thursday, with energy producers pacing gains as oil reversed higher, and investors considered mostly better-than-expected U.S. earnings and economic reports against global-growth concerns. After a 206-point drop and 69-point gain, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately up 18.20 points, or 0.1%, at 16,159.94. The S&P 500 rose 7.21 points, or 0.4%, to 1,869.70, with energy and materials leading gains and consumer staples and telecommunications losses among its 10 main industry groups. After falling to a low of 4,131.65, pulling it down more than 10% from its recent bull-market intraday high, the Nasdaq was more recently trading at 4,230.08, up 14.77 points, or 0.3%. Gold is trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.1% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.2% lower at about 1:30pm Chicago time. Wednesday, there were 902 contracts traded, down from 1,381 contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday increased by 34 contracts to 11,219. Tags: chicago rough rice futures, U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market
India 2014-15 Rice Exports Forecasted at 11 Million Tons, Up 8.5% from Last Year Oct 16, 2014
An India-based private farm research and consulting firm has forecasted India's rice exports at around 11 million tons in the marketing year 2014-15 (October - September), up about 8.5% from around 10.14 in MY 2013-14, according to local sources.A report released by the firm stated that the increase in rice exports in MY 2014-15 can be attributed to increase in basmati rice exports to around 4-4.5 million tons from last year's 3.76 million tons. "Surplus domestic stocks, higher global demand anticipated from African and Middle East countries and competitive prices may push rice exports from India," the CEO of the firm was quoted as saying.The report
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estimates India rice production in MY 2014-15 to decline to around 97 million tons, down about 9% from around 106.29 million tons last year due to delayed monsoons. It expects India's rice production to be severely impacted by a recent cyclone Hudhud, which destroyed paddy fields in major rice growing states of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Chhattisgarh. Major part of harvesting of the kharif (June – December) rice crop takes place in October. The level of damage is still not clear.It also expects rice prices to increase over the next few weeks due to major crop losses. Average rice prices in India currently stand at around Rs.2,900 - 2,920 per quintal (around $472-$475 per ton).USDA estimates India's 2014-15 (October - September) production at around 102 million tons, down about 4% from an estimated 106.54 million tons in 2013-14. It estimates India to export around 10 million tons of rice in 2014 and around 8.7 million tons of rice in 2015. Tags: India rice exports, India rice production, Kharif rice crop, basmati rice exports
South Korea to Buy 180,000 Tons of Surplus Rice to Prevent Oversupply in Domestic Market Oct 16, 2014
The South Korean government has decided to buy about 180,000 tons of rice from the freshly harvested crop to prevent oversupply and stabilize supply in the domestic rice market, according to local sources. The decision has been taken in the light of falling per capita consumption of rice in the country. According to the statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA), South Korea's per capita consumption of rice has declined to current 64.4 kilograms from around 132.4 kilograms in 1980. Based on these figures, the MAFRA estimates the total demand for rice in the country during 2014 to be around 4 million tons. But, according to predictions by the Statistics Korea (KOSTAT), South Korean rice production this year is likely to reach around 4.18 million tons. So, the government expects about 180,000 tons of surplus rice to be available in the country leading to oversupply of rice and fall in prices. Therefore the government decided to buy the surplus 180,000 tons of rice to prevent oversupply and control prices from falling. The purchase is in addition to 370,000 tons of rice that the government intended to procure
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from September 23, 2014 to boost country's stockpiles and to control price falls. The government said it would procure another 30,000 tons of rice from the newly harvested crop to be used as international food aid under the ASEAN plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) program. An official from MAFRA was quoted as saying that the government will reveal the exact amount of rice it will buy after getting a clarity over the yield and price of the rice in the next month. He also noted that the purchased rice will not be released into the market unless the prices get extremely unstable and the market needs government intervention.South Korea produced around 4.23 million tons of rice in 2013, up about 6% from around 4 million tons produced in 2012, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFR). Recently, the South Korean government announced its decision to open its rice import market from January 1, 2015. It has also indicated that it would impose tariffs of about 513% on rice imports to protect the local rice sector from foreign competition.USDA estimates South Korea's milled rice production at around 4.23 million tons in MY 2013-14 (November - October), up about 6% from around 4 million tons in MY 2012-13. It estimates production to decline to around 4.05 million tons in MY 2014-15. It estimates South Korea to import around 410,000 tons of rice in MY 2013-14 and MY 2014-15, down about 20% from 510,000 tons imported in MY 2012-13. Tags: South Korea rice procurement, South Korea rice production, South Korea rice consumption, South Korea rice liberalization
USDA Forecasts 2014 Global Rice Trade at 41.2 Million Tons, Up 5% from Last Year Oct 16, 2014
In its October Rice Outlook report, USDA has forecasted 2014 global rice trade at around 41.2 million tons, up about 5% from around 39.35 million tons in 2013, and almost unchanged from its last month’s forecast of around 41.25 million tons. On the exports side, USDA expects lower exports by Cambodia, Vietnam, India the U.S., but estimates higher exports by Argentina, Australia, Myanmar, Guyana, Thailand, Peru and Turkey.
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On the imports side, it is estimating significant increases in imports by Bangladesh, Colombia, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Indonesia, Honduras, Malaysia, Nigeria, the Philippines, Syria, Taiwan, and Venezuela. However, it is expecting lower imports from Nicaragua, Sierra Leone, Liberia, South Korea, Ghana and Iran USDA is forecasting 2015 global rice trade at around 41.2 million tons, almost unchanged from this year's estimates due to expected near-record imports by China and Sub-Saharan Africa and large supplies of
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exportable supplies in Asia and South America. It is expecting Thailand to replace India as world's largest rice exporter (with around 10 million tons) backed by more competitive prices and abundant supplies. Tags: USDA, Global rice trade, Global rice exports, Global rice imports
Oryza Global Weekly Weather Recap Oct 16, 2014
Light rain is expected across Southwest China from Thursday to Saturday. Scattered showers are expected across central and southern Vietnam on Thursday and Friday. The rest of Vietnam will be mostly dry in the coming days. Isolated rain is expected across south Thailand on Thursday and Friday. Thereafter scattered rain is expected across North, the Northeast, the Central and the East of Thailand from Saturday to Monday. Continued monsoon showers in central Thailand further improved reservoir levels for the upcoming dry-season rice crop. Rain is expected at a few places over east and northeast India during the next three days. Tropical Cyclone ‘Hudhud’ which hit India’s eastern coast with high winds and heavy rainfall recently, threatened mature kharif rice there. Mainly dry weather is expected in most parts of Pakistan during the next three days. Light rain is likely to occur at one or two places over Dhaka, Khulna, Barisal, Chittagong & Sylhet divisions in Bangladesh in next two days. Weather may remain mainly dry elsewhere over the country. In Indonesia, scattered showers are expected across Borneo and Sumatra on Thursday and Friday. U.S. Rice producers had harvested about 82% of the nation’s crop by October 12, 4% ahead of the 5-year average, according to the USDA. In Louisiana, producers reported that second crop rice is starting to turn, and that some producers will start harvest soon. Tags: Asia, global, world, Rice, news, weather, Cyclone, Hudhud, rain
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Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Little Changed as Market Lacks Direction Oct 16, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery are currently noted 2.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $12.565 per cwt (about $277 per ton) during early morning floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading with mixed results: soybeans are currently seen unchanged, wheat is listed about 0.3% higher and corn is noted about 0.1% lower. U.S. stocks cut Thursday losses, recovering after the Nasdaq Composite visited correction territory, as investors worried about a soft global economy and its possible effect on the U.S. economy. The government said its count of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits dropped to a 14-year low last week, falling by 23,000 to 264,000, its lowest since 2000. Separately, U.S. industrial production rose 1.0% in September, versus expectations of 0.4%. Less positive was a u-turn in confidence among home builders in October, falling sharply after rising to a nine-year high the prior month. After a 197-point drop, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately down 88.76 points, or 0.6%, at 16,052.98. The S&P 500 shed 11.71 points, or 0.6%, to 1,849.67. The Nasdaq fell to a low of 4,131.65, pulling it down more than 10% from its recent bull-market intraday high, and was more recently trading at 4,178.73, off 36 points. Gold is currently trading about 0.6% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.1% higher at 9:45am Chicago time. Tags: chicago rough rice futures, U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market
Vietnam Rice Quotes Mixed Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Oct 16, 2014
Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to around $430 - $440 per ton and $395 - $405 per ton respectively and increased their quotes for Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton to around $580 - $590 per ton . Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged today. 5% Broken Rice
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Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $420 - $430 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $430 - $440 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday. India 5% rice is quoted at around $415 $425 per ton, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $395 - $405 per ton. 25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice was last quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $45 per ton discount to Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $395 - $405 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday. India 25% rice is quoted at around $370 - $380 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $345 - $355 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $420 - $430 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 $415 per ton, about $20 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $425 - $435 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, was last quoted at around $340 - $350 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Vietnam broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India broken sortexed rice is quoted at around $320 $330 per ton, on par with Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton. Tags: Vietnam rice prices, India rice prices, pakistan rice prices, Thailand rice prices
USDA Forecasts 2014-15 Global Milled Rice Production at 475.5 Million Tons, Slightly Down from Last Year Oct 16, 2014
In its October Rice Outlook report, USDA has forecasted 2014-15 global milled rice production at around 475.5 million tons, slightly down from an estimated 476.1 million tons in 2013-14, and slightly down from its last month's estimates of around 477 million tons. USDA attributes the decline in global rice production to a lower average yield.
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USDA forecasts 2014-15 global rice acreage at around 161 million hectares, slightly up from last year, due to expected increase in rice area in Brazil, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the U.S. It has forecasted the average global yield at 4.4 tons per hectare (on rough rice basis), almost unchanged from last
year. According to the latest projections, USDA expects lower output from India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan due to lesser rains and unfavorable weather conditions. But the lower output from these countries is likely to be compensated by increased output from Tanzania, Russia and the U.S. USDA estimates 2014-15 global rice consumption and residual use at 481.7 million tons, up about 1% from last year's 476.9 million tons, and slightly down from its last month's projections of 481.8 million tons. USDA expects consumption to exceed production by about 6.2 million tons in 2014-15. Major increases in consumption and residual use are expected in Bangladesh, Burma, China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the U.S. The U.S. agency estimates 2014-15 global rice ending stocks at around 104.2 million tons, down about 5% from last year's 109.3 million tons and slightly down from last month's projection of about 105.1 million tons due to likely decline in India rice stocks. It estimates 2014-15 global stocks-to-use ratio at 21.6%, down from last year's 23.2%. Tags: Global milled rice production, Global rice consumption, Global rice ending stocks
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