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Global rice prices decline on excess supply Decline in rice prices continues–BAS report Vietnamese rice exporters seek ways to boost sales THAILAND PRESS-BAAC to borrow another 140 billion baht for rice scheme - Bangkok Post Commerce Minister firm on rice deal with China TABLE-India Grain Prices-Delhi-Oct 21 Nagpur Foodgrain Prices Open-Oct 21 Farmers in Punjab selling paddy much below MSP Range-bound trading likely in rice Govt plans to release 6-7m tonnes of rice a year under G2G, private deals India's rice exports may fall to 9.3 million tons in 2013-14: USDA
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Global rice prices decline on excess supply Published : Monday, 21 October 2013
Global rice prices continue their downward spiral in the face of excess supply from the major exporting countries, according to a recent report of International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), report agencies.The stockpiles of rice in producing countries reach the highest in 12 years.Rice stockpiles in Thailand, once the world's biggest exporter, are expanding to a record as a government program to buy production spurs farmers to plant the most crops ever and add to a global glut. Reserves in Thailand will increase 24 percent to 15.5 million metric tonnes in 2013-2014 as global output rises 1.7 per cent to an all-time high of 476.8 million tons, the US Department of Agriculture estimates. The price of 5-per cent broken Thai white rice, an Asian benchmark, will drop 12 per cent to $390 a ton by April, a five-year low, according to the median of eight trader and analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
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The report says rice prices on global market declined by 5.0 per cent in the past two months thanks to the good harvest in major rice producing countries including Bangladesh. The IRRI report indicates further fall in rice price as "the crops in the fields of most rice growing countries" are "looking good". The report also notes that the rice is not the only crop in a bearish mood; others such as wheat, corn (maize), and soybean have also witnessed a weakening of prices in the past few months with the prospect of good harvests in North America.The corn price has been the hardest hit, with a 30 per cent drop, whereas soybean and wheat have witnessed a somewhat moderate decline of 5-10 per cent. The December futures prices for these commodities point to further weakening in the coming months but this is unlikely to have much effect on Asian rice prices.
As usual, Asian rice prices in the coming months will be influenced by weather and politics. The main rice crop in most of Asia is progressing well, with isolated instances of flood/drought in a few locations, such as flood in Pakistan and drought in parts of India (Bihar and Jharkhand).Despite drought in these two states, India is expected to harvest another bumper crop on the back of normal monsoon in other rice-growing states. This augurs well for India's recently passed National Food Security Bill, which provides a right to food to nearly two-thirds of India's billion-plus population.With nearly 30 million tonnes of rice procurement stocks and the prospect of another good harvest, the new Food Security Bill is unlikely to have much impact on the global market, at least in the short run. However, in years of bad production, the Indian government will be quick to restrict or ban exports and may even enter the global market to purchase rice as part of its legal obligation to provide cheap food.Purchases by China, the largest grower and importer, may help curb the price slump. Heat waves earlier this year in China may cut domestic production and the International Grains Council is forecasting a 1.1 percent contraction in output to 141.4 million tons. Imports will rise 6.3 percent to 3.4 million tons in 2013-2014, USDA data show.
Decline in rice prices continues–BAS report Category: Agri-Commodities :21 Oct 2013
With palay harvest now in full swing, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) said the average wholesale and retail prices of well-milled and regular-milled rice continued to decline.For the week ending October 15, the BAS said the average wholesale price of well-milled rice declined by 0.74 percent to P36.21 per kilogram.At the retail level, the average price of well-milled rice at P38.60 per kilo was lower by 0.49 percent per kilo.On a yearly basis, however, the average wholesale and retail prices of well-milled rice were higher by 10.53 percent and 9.29 percent, respectively.For regular-milled rice, the BAS said its average wholesale price at P33.37 per kilo was also lower by 0.63 percent. Its retail price also declined by 0.48 percent to P35.61 per kilo.On an annual basis, the BAS said the average wholesale and retail prices of milled rice were higher by 11.79 percent and 10.76 percent, respectively. For the second week, the BAS said the average farmgate price of palay at P17.26 per kilo declined by 0.23 percent compared to last week’s quotation. Compared to last year, however, the farmgate price of unmilled rice was higher by 7.27 percent.
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The attached agency of the Department of Agriculture (DA) said the average wholesale price of yellow corngrain as of October 15 went down by 0.44 percent to P15.90 per kilo. Average retail price of yellow corngrain at P21.41 per kilo, said the BAS, was also lower by 0.42 percent on a weekly basisFor white corngrain, the BAS said its average wholesale price at P14.98 per kilo was 0.53 percent lower than last week’s level. Average retail price at P18.53 per kilo, however, was higher by 0.05 percent.The farmgate prices of yellow and white corngrain registered increases for the week ending October 15.The farmgate price of yellow corngrain at P11.81 per kilo was higher by 0.08 percent compared to last week’s quotation while that of white corngrain which settled at P18.53 per kilo went up by 2.15 percent.
Vietnamese rice exporters seek ways to boost sales VietNamNet Bridge – Vietnam, one of the world’s leading rice exporters, has lowered bar for its rice export for 2013 to between 7-7.2 million tonnes from the targeted 7.5 million tonnes and is striving to open new markets. The Vietnam Economic News reports. As domestic businesses currently meet difficulties in exporting to traditional markets, promoting exports to new markets such as Africa and Mexico is considered an important solution.Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development show that in September, Vietnam exported an estimated 471,000 tonnes of rice worth 214 million USD. In the first nine months of this year, the country exported an estimated 5.35 million tonnes of the grain worth 2.35 billion USD, down 14.3 percent in terms of volume and 16.7 percent in value compared with the same period of 2012.Also in the same period under review, Vietnamese rice exports have continuously decreased in terms of both volume and value, attributable to redundant supplies. China, the largest market for Vietnamese rice, has temporarily stopped importing to wait for further price falls. Data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) show that in September 2013, the country exported 54,000 tonnes of rice to China. Other traditional markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines have also reduced the import of Vietnamese rice.In the context of difficult export to traditional markets, seeking new export markets is considered a vital solution for domestic rice businesses. In the last eight months, Vietnam signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on rice trading with Comoros, an East African country, under which
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60,000 tonnes will be shipped there each year in the period from August 2013 to the end of December 2015.Before that, in late March, Vietnam signed an MoU on rice trading with Guinea to export 300,000 tonnes each year in the period from April 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015. Comoros has become the third African country, after Guinea and the Republic of Sierra Leone, to sign an MoU on importing rice directly from Vietnam. The largest rice market in the world with an annual consumer demand for over 9 million tonnes, of which 6.46.5 million tonnes are imported, Africa is considered as a potential market for Vietnamese rice. Rice has become the number-one Vietnamese export product to Africa, accounting for 30 percent of the total value of Vietnam’s exports to Africa and 20 percent of the total value of Vietnam’s rice exports to the world.From September 1-26, 2013, 45 percent of Vietnam’s rice exports went to Africa. In the past, Vietnam met difficulties in exporting the grain to Africa because it exported through a third country. Now, the MoUs which were signed recently encourage African importers to buy more Vietnamese fragrant rice because its price is just half of that of Thai grain while the quality is almost the same. Today, people in many African countries, especially urban residents, use more fragrant rice to prepare their daily meals as their incomes have improved. Therefore, Vietnam is seeking ways to increase rice exports to Africa.Mexico is a new market for Vietnamese rice. Since the beginning of this year, Vietnam has exported to this market nearly 3,000 tonnes (before 2013, Vietnam could not export any rconsignment to the Mexican market due to strict quality requirements). Clearly, Vietnamese rice can meet the requirements of difficult-toplease markets.Phan Van Chinh, Director of the Import-Export Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said that along with efforts to increase exports to traditional markets, the ministry had promoted negotiations to seek new export markets for Vietnamese rice.In the initial period, the volume of rice exports to new markets will possibly be not high, but this will be a good solution to promote rice exports, especially in the current situation. Exporting rice to these markets will also help popularise the brand of Vietnamese rice,” he affirmed. Source: Vietnam Plus Tags:Vietnamese rice exporters,VFA,domestic businesses,potential market,
THAILAND PRESS-BAAC to borrow another 140 billion baht for rice scheme - Bangkok Post Sun Oct 20, 2013 8:56pm EDT
The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) will borrow 140 billion baht ($4.51 billion) with the Finance Ministry's guarantee to fund the 270-billion-baht budget set for the government's rice-pledging scheme for the current harvest year. (link.reuters.com/tad93v
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Commerce Minister firm on rice deal with China Saturday, 19 October 2013By MCOT
BANGKOK, Oct 19 – Deputy Prime Minister Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisan insisted yesterday that China has promised to buy one million tonnes of rice from Thailand annually.He reiterated the governmentto-government rice deal with China would proceed after criticisms from several quarters which said it would be impossible for the mainland to make such a huge purchase.Mr Niwatthamrong, concurrently the commerce minister, said he would lead a Thai delegation to China next month to discuss the rice sales with his Chinese counterpart following a recent agreement by leaders of the two countries.Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said early this week that her Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang agreed to buy one million tonnes of rice and 200,000 tonnes of rubber from Thailand annually for the next five years.Mr Niwatthamrong said the Thai government has set a target to sign the rice deal with China as soon as possible or in December at the latest, and Thailand would also offer to sell other agricultural produce including rubber, tapioca, maize and sugarcane.The two countries have agreed on a barter trade of Thai agricultural produce and China’s high-speed trains, he said.He said Thailand would sell 1.2 million tonnes of rice to a Chinese state enterprise in Hellongjiang province this month with an agreement to deliver the grains in a year. Besides, the Thai Rice Exporters Association has signed agreements to export one million tonnes of rice to Chinese state enterprises in the next five year, or 200,000 tonnes annually, he said.He said Thailand has three rice export agreements with China at a combined export volume of 7.2 million tonnes over five years, and rice in the country’s stockpiles would be sufficient for exports though some were damaged by floods.He said the Commerce Ministry would urgently hold discussions with the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), which has stopped payments to farmers for their rice sales due to liquidity problem.The
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Cabinet has approved a Bt270 billion budget for the rice pledging scheme in the next harvests and it is the duty of the Finance Ministry and BAAC to finance the project and allocate payments to farmers, he said.
TABLE-India Grain Prices-Delhi-Oct 21
Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:08pm IST TABLE-India Grain Prices - Delhi - Oct 21 Rates by Asian News International, New Delhi Tel: 011 2619 1464 Indicative Grains
Previous
opening
close
(in rupees per 100 kg unless stated) ---------------------------------------------------------Wheat Desi
2,300-2,600
2,250-2,550.
Wheat Dara
1,650-1,750
1,650-1,750.
Atta Chakki (per 10 Kg) Roller Mill (per bag)
1,700-1,800.
1,825-1,925 1,850-1,950
Rice Basmati(Sri Lal Mahal) Rice Basmati(Lal Quila) Rice Basmati(Common) Rice Permal
210-235.
1,725-1,825
Maida (per bag) Sooji (per bag)
210-235
1,825-1,925. 1,825-1,930.
12,000 11,000
11,000.
7,300-7,900
2,435-2,535
12,000.
7,300-7,900.
2,435-2,535.
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Rice Sela
3,100-3,220
I.R.-8
2,245-2,345
Gram
3,100-3,220. 2,245-2,345.
3,325-4,150
3,325-4,225.
Peas Green
3,250-3,370
3,255-3,355.
Peas White
2,550-2,650
2,550-2,650.
Bajra
3,170-3,270
Jowar white
3,170-3,270.
2,470-2,680
2,470-2,680.
Maize
1,510-1,600
1,510-1,600.
Barley
1,320-1,450
1,320-1,450.
Guwar
3,310-3,710
3,310-3,710.
Source: Delhi grain market traders.
Nagpur Foodgrain Prices Open-Oct 21 Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:21pm IST Nagpur, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Gram prices in Nagpur Agriculture Produce and Marketing Committee (APMC) declined sharply on lack of demand from local millers amid high moisture content arrival. Easy condition on NCDEX, increased supply from producing regions and weak trend in Madhya Pradesh gram prices also affected sentiment in weak trading activity, according to sources. *
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FOODGRAINS & PULSES GRAM * Gram varieties shot up in open market on increased seasonal demand from local traders amid weak tight from producing belts. Notable rise in Madhya Pradesh gram prices also helped to push up prices. TUAR * Tuar varieties reported strong in open market on renewed Diwali festival demand from
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local traders amid tight supply from producing regions. Damage of crop because of excess monsoon also boosted prices. * Lakhodi dal zoomed up in open market on good festival season demand from local traders amid restricted supply from producing regions. * In Akola, Tuar - 4,200-4,400, Tuar dal - 6,400-6,600, Udid at 4,700-4,900, Udid Mogar (clean) - 5,500-5,800, Moong - 6,000-6,400, Moong Mogar (clean) 7,100-7,300, Gram - 3,100-3,400, Gram Super best bold - 4,200-4,400 for 100 kg. * Wheat, rice and other commodities remained steady in open market in thin trading activity, according to sources. Nagpur foodgrains APMC auction/open-market prices in rupees for 100 kg FOODGRAINS Available prices Previous close Gram Auction 2,500-2,750 2,500-2,840 Gram Pink Auction n.a. 2,100-2,600 Tuar Auction n.a. 3,850-4,050 Moong Auction n.a. 4,200-4,400 Udid Auction n.a. 4,300-4,500 Masoor Auction n.a. 2,600-2,800 Gram Super Best Bold 4,400-4,800 4,300-4,600 Gram Super Best n.a. Gram Medium Best 3,950-4,300 3,850-4,100 Gram Dal Medium n.a. n.a. Gram Mill Quality 3,900-4,000 3,750-3,850 Desi gram Raw 3,500-3,600 3,350-3,450 Gram Filter Yellow n.a. n.a. Gram Kabuli 7,700-10,000 7,700-10,000 Gram Pink 7,600-8,000 7,600-8,000 Tuar Fataka Best 6,700-6,850 6,650-6,800 Tuar Fataka Medium 6,500-6,600 6,400-6,500 Tuar Dal Best Phod 6,100-6,200 6,000-6,100 Tuar Dal Medium phod 5,700-5,900 5,600-5,800 Tuar Gavarani 4,250-4,400 4,100-4,250 Tuar Karnataka 4,200-4,300 4,100-4,200 Tuar Black 7,000-7,100 7,000-7,100 Masoor dal best 5,400-5,500 5,400-5,500 Masoor dal medium 5,000-5,100 5,000-5,100 Masoor n.a. n.a.
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Moong Mogar bold 7,400-7,800 7,400-7,800 Moong Mogar Medium best 7,000-7,200 7,000-7,200 Moong dal super best 6,500-6,800 6,500-6,5800 Moong dal Chilka 6,000-6,300 6,000-6,300 Moong Mill quality n.a. n.a. Moong Chamki best 6,400-7,000 6,400-7,000 Udid Mogar Super best (100 INR/KG) 5,800-6,000 5,800-6,000 Udid Mogar Medium (100 INR/KG) 5,000-5,500 5,000-5,500 Udid Dal Black (100 INR/KG) 4,800-5,000 4,800-5,000 Batri dal (100 INR/KG) 3,700-3,800 3,700-3,800 Lakhodi dal (100 INR/kg) 2,900-3,000 2,700-2,800 Watana Dal (100 INR/KG) 3,350-3,400 3,350-3,400 Watana White (100 INR/KG) 3,300-3,400 3,300-3,400 Watana Green Best (100 INR/KG) 7,900-8,100 7,800-8,000 Wheat 308 (100 INR/KG) 1,600-1,700 1,600-1,700 Wheat Mill quality(100 INR/KG) 1,550-1,600 1,550-1,600 Wheat Filter (100 INR/KG) 1,600-1,800 1,600-1,800 Wheat Lokwan best (100 INR/KG) 1,850-2,300 1,850-2,300 Wheat Lokwan medium (100 INR/KG) 1,700-1,900 1,700-1,900 Lokwan Hath Binar (100 INR/KG) n.a. n.a. MP Sharbati Best (100 INR/KG) 3,100-3,600 3,100-3,600 MP Sharbati Medium (100 INR/KG) 2,600-2,900 2,600-2,900 Wheat 147 (100 INR/KG) 1,400-1,500 1,400-1,500 Wheat Best (100 INR/KG) 1,500-1,600 1,500-1,600 Rice BPT (100 INR/KG) 2,800-3,500 2,800-3,500 Rice Parmal (100 INR/KG) 2,200-2,500 2,200-2,500 Rice Swarna Best (100 INR/KG) 2,300-2,400 2,300-2,400 Rice Swarna Medium (100 INR/KG) 2,000-2,250 2,000-2,250 Rice HMT (100 INR/KG) 4,100-4,500 4,100-4,500 Rice HMT Shriram (100 INR/KG) 4,400-4,900 4,400-4,900 Rice Basmati best (100 INR/KG) 10,000-12,500 10,000-12,500 Rice Basmati Medium (100 INR/KG) 6,200-7,500 6,200-7,500 Rice Chinnor (100 INR/KG) 5,000-5,500 5,000-5,500 Rice Chinnor Medium (100 INR/KG) 4,400-4,800 4,400-4,800 Jowar Gavarani (100 INR/KG) 1,500-1,650 1,500-1,650 Jowar CH-5 (100 INR/KG) 1,800-1,900 1,800-1,900 WEATHER (NAGPUR) Maximum temp. 32.6 degree Celsius (90.7 degree Fahrenheit), minimum temp. 19.3 degree Celsius (66.7 degree Fahrenheit) Humidity: Highest - n.a., lowest - n.a. Rainfall : nil
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FORECAST: Mainly clear sky. Maximum and Minimum temperature likely to be around 33 and 20 degree Celsius respectively. Note: n.a.--not available (For oils, transport costs are excluded from plant delivery prices, but included in market prices.)
Farmers in Punjab selling paddy much below MSP High moisture content and discoloration of grains due to untimely rains is acting as a deterrent in paddy procurement in Punjab. As a result, farmers are forced to sell their produce at much below the minimum selling price (MSP) of Rs 1,345 per quintal.According to the state agricultural marketing board data, there have been instances where the paddy was being sold at Rs 900 per quintal against the MSP of Rs 1,345 per quintal. While, last year the minimum price it fetched was Rs 1,042 per quintal. It clearly indicates that the farmers are not getting remunerative price for their crop and even lesser than the last year.Speaking to Business Standard, one of the senior officials of the state agricultural marketing board said, "The level of moisture content in paddy arrivals was found to be more than 20 per cent which is in excess of permissible limit of 17 per cent. The high moisture content and discoloring of grains acting is as a deterrent to the buyers. While the central government agencies are refusing to buy crop citing high moisture content and discolored grains, the private traders are procuring paddy at lower price than the MSP. Considering the weather, it is very difficult that the moisture level in the grain will come down."According to the data, as on October 20, in the ongoing kharif marketing season, out of the total arrival of 48.93 lakh tonnes, government owned procurement agencies have so far procured 35.61 lakh tonnes of paddy, which is 6 per cent lower than 37.87 lakh tonnes paddy procured in corresponding period of last season.While the participation of private traders in the current procurement season has increased significantly. In the current season they had purchased 10.37 lakh tonnes, compared to 8.64 lakh tonnes during the corresponding period of the last year, thus witnessing an increase of 20 per cent. It is worth mentioning that Punjab expects to procure 130 lakh tonnes of paddy in the current season.Earlier, Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal also said that the norms fixed for procuring paddy have turned out to be "hindrances" for the process in the state."The specifications laid down by the Union Government, for paddy purchase, are creating hindrances in the smooth procurement of paddy in the state,"he added.Perturbed over the problem, farmers are seeking relaxation in crop procurement norms in the wake of fetching lesser prices for their crop. Farmers in the state demands that the specification pertaining to moisture content in paddy should be raised from 17 per cent to 22 per cent. They also demanded that norm for discoloured grains to be increased
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from three per cent to eight per cent.Paddy was sown over 27.50 lakh hectares in the state and it is expected that the production may touch 160-162 lakh tones. But the state agriculture department officials said there could be a five per cent drop in paddy yield due to inclement weather conditions.
Range-bound trading likely in rice OUR CORRESPONDENT KARNAL, OCT. 21:
Rice market witnessed a mixed trend with Pusa-1121 rice varieties improving by Rs 50-100 a quintal, on Monday, while all other aromatic and non-basmati varieties managed to rule firm at their previous levels.Amit Chandna, proprietor of Hanuman Rice Trading Company, told Business Line that fresh buying by bulk buyers mainly pushed Pusa-1121 varieties back in to positive territory. Bulk buyers have taken good advantage by buying at those levels, he added.Trade may continue to witness a range-bound trend till Diwali, said trade sources. It is unlikely to see any major alteration in coming days and market may continue to rule around current levels with marginal alteration till Diwali, said market sources.In the physical market, after witnessing a continuous fall over the last one week, Pusa-1121 (steam) improved by Rs 100 and sold at Rs 7,450-7,500, while Pusa-1121 (sela) went up by Rs 50 and quoted at Rs 7,050. Pusa-1509 (sela) quoted at Rs 5,950-6,000. Pure Basmati (Raw) quoted at Rs 11,000 . Duplicate basmati (steam) sold at Rs 6,000 . For the brokens of Pusa-1121, Dubar quoted at Rs 3,600, Tibar sold at Rs 4,200 while Mongra was at Rs 3,100 . In the non-basmati section, Sharbati (Steam) sold at Rs 4,430 while Sharbati (Sela) quoted at Rs 4,200. Permal (raw) sold at Rs 2,250-75 while Permal (sela) went for Rs 2,300. PR-11 (sela) sold at Rs 2,700 while PR-11 (Raw) quoted at Rs 2,700-25. PR14 (steam) sold at Rs 2,700 a quintal. PADDY ARRIVALS About 70,000 bags of PR paddy arrived and quoted at Rs 1,330-1,420, around 15,000 bags of Pusa-1121 arrived and sold at Rs 3,240-3,300, 5,000 bags of Sugandha at Rs 2,400, while 12,000 bags of Sharbati arrived and sold at Rs 2,300. Around 7,000 bags of Duplicate Basmati arrived and went for Rs 3,150-3,260 a quintal. (This article was published on October 21, 2013)
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Keywords: Rice market, mixed trend, Pusa-1121, Hanuman Rice
Govt plans to release 6-7m tonnes of rice a year under G2G, private deals Petchanet Pratruangkrai The Nation:October 19, 2013 1:00 am
The Commerce Ministry plans to release about 6 million to 7 million tonnes of rice annually under government-to-government and government-private contracts a year, while retaining 3 million to 4 million tonnes as security stock. The ministry also aims to return almost Bt200 billion to the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) by the end of this year, including the Bt169 billion it has already paid.Deputy Commerce Minister Yanyong Phuangrach said the government should have no problem managing the stockpiles, despite more rice coming in from the continued pledging programme."Many countries have shown high interest in purchasing several thousand to several million tonnes of rice from Thailand to supply their domestic consumption. The ministry plans gradually to ship about 6 million to 7 million tonnes a year under G2G, as well as to private importers," he said.He added that the government would retain between 3 million and 4 million tonnes in its stockpiles each year to ensure adequate supply for domestic consumption, as well as to help other countries in case of shortages or disasters. According to the ministry, the government is currently holding about 15 million tonnes of rice in its stockpiles. Of this amount, 5 million tonnes already has shipment contracts. Under the ministry's plan, it will sell its stocks under G2G contracts, to government agencies, and to private importers. It will also ask private exporters to ship more rice to overseas markets.The ministry clarified that it had returned Bt169.01 billion from its rice-sale income to the BAAC between October 2011 and this month.Yanyong said the ministry should earn an additional Bt30 billion to refund to the bank by the end of this year.
India's rice exports may fall to 9.3 million tons in 2013-14: USDA By PTI | 21 Oct, 2013, 12.53PM IST
Rice exports from India, the world's largest producer and exporter, are estimated to fall marginally to 9.3 million tonnes in 2013-14. NEW DELHI: Rice exports from India, the world's largest producer and exporter, are estimated to fall marginally to 9.3 million tonnes in 2013-14 marketing year that started this month, a latest report said. India re-entered the rice exports market in September 2011 after a four-year ban on exports of non-basmati rice. It had emerged as the world's largest rice exporter in 2012 ahead of its Asian counterpart Thailand.
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According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), rice exports are pegged at 9.3 million tonnes for the 2013-14 marketing year (October-September), slightly lower than 10 million tonnes in the same period last year.The report did not give reasons for projecting a likely drop in rice shipments for this year.However, the USDA noted that the Indian government is unlikely to impose any export restrictions in the near future with the forecast of near-record production and "more-than-sufficient" government-held rice stocks this year. Stating that strong exports may affect domestic price movement, the report said the government has enough rice stocks to control any significant flare up in domestic prices due to the upcoming general elections in 2014. Assuming normal weather conditions during the harvesting period, the USDA said that the country's total rice production is projected to remain near-record 105 million tonnes, as against 104.4 million tonnes last year. A record rice output of 105.3 million tonnes was achieved in 2011-12. Earlier, the USDA had forecast rice output of a record 108 million tonnes this year. It has now lowered the rice output projections considering lower planting due to deficient rains in eastern states, the major rice growing region where most of the rice is not irrigated, the report said. Continued dryness in October in eastern India and the 'normal' cyclones in October-November period across coastal India could damage the standing crop and further temper the prospects of summer-sown rice production, it added. USDA has pegged overall India's consumption to rise marginally to 96.70 million tonnes during 2013-14, while estimating the total grain availability at 130.5 million tonnes for the same period.
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