22nd October , 2013
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TOP Contents - Tailored for YOU Latest News Headlines… Bangladesh 2013-14 Rice Production May Increase Due to Larger Aman Crop, Says USDA Post Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Market Waiting for Something to Budge; Harvest Now 88% Complete Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Dip Slightly, after Session of Back-and-forth Trade; Grains Recover from Overnight Losses to Close Mostly Higher 30 Day Outlook for Eastern India and Sri Lanka by Dakota Weather Consultants Sri Lanka 2012-13 Maha Rice Crop Production Grows to 2.85 Million Tons; Up 4.8% from Last Year Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Mexico Peso Down 0.9% U.S. Rice Industry Split on Controversial Court Ruling on Rice Research Fees USDA Post Lowers Vietnam 2012-13 Rice Export Estimate to 7.2 Million Tons Vietnam Exports 5.34 Million Tons of Rice in January 1 – October 15, 2013 Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Attempt to Rebound from Friday’s Losses; Other Grains Seen Slightly Lower Overnight Asia Rice Quotes Mixed Today Oryza Quick Glance at World News Oryza Global Rice Quotes
NEWS DETAILS:
Bangladesh 2013-14 Rice Production May Increase Due to Larger Aman Crop, Says USDA Post Oct 21, 2013
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The USDA Post in Dhaka says that Bangladesh’s rice production in MY 2013-14 (May – April) may increase to around 34.4 million tons, up almost 2% from an estimated 33.8 million tons produced in the previous year due to larger-than-expected Aman rice crop (July – November) area this year.The new 2013-14 rice production forecast by the Post is marginally higher than the USDA official projection of around 34.2 million tons. The Post says that planted area of the current Aman rice crop (which accounts for around 40% of total rice production) in Bangladesh is expected to increase this year due to early and long-lasting monsoon rainfall.The Post lowered Bangladesh’s rice import requirements in MY 2013-14 to around 250,000 tons, up from negligible quantities of rice imports in the previous year, but down about 33% from USDA official estimates of around 375,000 tons. Only 2,970 tons of rice has been imported by Bangladesh in May – August 2013, entirely by the private sector. Most of the projected 250,000 tons of rice imports in MY 2013-14 is expected to be cheap rice sourced from India by private traders, the Post says. As of September 201, total rice stocks in Bangladesh stand at around 8.15 million tons (including about 7 million tons with private sector), enough to meet domestic requirement until mid-November when Aman harvest begins. According to the Post, rice consumption in Bangladesh in MY 2013-14 is estimated at around 34.6 million tons. Tags: Bangladesh rice production
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Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Market Waiting for Something to Budge; Harvest Now 88% Complete Oct 21, 2013
The U.S. cash market was lifeless today as most bids were not enticing enough for seller to part ways with their rice. Analysts insist that most farmers have no interest in selling below their target price as many are still harvesting and have sold their corn and beans at profitable levels while buyers contend that they cannot make sales at the levels farmers are willing to sell at, so for now, the market waits until one of them budges.Offers could still be found around $15.56-$16.66 per fob farm (about $343-$367 per ton), depending on where they are located in the U.S. mid-South, for October through December shipment, while bids from most larger mills and exporters were unchanged near $14.60 per cwt (about $322 per ton) and $15.25 per cwt (about $326 per ton), respectively, for October through December delivery, however one buyer was reportedly bidding as much as $16.00 per cwt (about $353 per ton) delivered although no trades have been confirmed. In the meantime, the USDA estimated that as of October 20th, 88% of the U.S. rice crop has been harvested, compared to 90% this week last year. As of now, 83% of the crop has been cut in Arkansas compared to 90% California, 100% Louisiana, 96% in Mississippi, 80% in Missouri, and 100% in Texas. Tags: U.S. rice prices
Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Dip Slightly, after Session of Back-and-forth Trade; Grains Recover from Overnight Losses to Close Mostly Higher Oct 21, 2013
Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery settled 3 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $15.260 per cwt (about $336 per ton). Rough rice futures settled slightly lower but off of session lows as prices managed to remain in technically positive territory above the 20-day moving average. Today saw a big uptick in spread activity with the November/January spread particularly lively as traders look to move positions forward ahead of first notice day next week. The other grains finished mostly higher today; soybeans finished the day about 0.9% higher at $13.0325 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.5% lower at $7.0075 per bushel; and corn finished the day about 0.6% higher at $4.4400 per bushel. U.S. stocks crawled along nearly unchanged in lackluster trading Monday, after the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, as investors looked ahead to a slew of economic data and earnings reports. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped into the red. The S&P 500 hit a fresh intraday record high shortly after the market open, while the Nasdaq touched a 13-year high. Among key S&P sectors, consumer staples led the laggards, while telecoms gained. Last week, major averages logged strong gains for the week, with the S&P 500 extending gains to a new high, as Wall Street cheered some better-than-expected corporate earnings results. U.S. stock markets are
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currently trading down about 0.1%, gold is trading about 0.2% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 1.5% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading nearly unchanged at about 2:00pm Chicago time. Looking to the daily continuation chart of Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery, overnight gains were quickly erased and price fell sharply upon the open of floor trading in Chicago this morning. The market momentarily dipped into technically bearish territory as prices broke below the 20-day moving average which was noted at $15.187 per cwt (about $339 per ton) today. However, this move was short lived and prices found their way back above this level and remain in positive territory. The fact that the bears were able to drag prices in their favor for the majority of the session, along with the fact that the market has put in a lower low and lower high, both provide a negative forecast for tomorrow’s price direction. Today’s trading range was noted as $15.150-$15.380 per cwt (about $334-$339 per ton).Friday, there were 700 contracts traded, down from 1,155 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday decreased by 16 contracts to 10,700. Tags: chicago rough rice futures
30 Day Outlook for Eastern India and Sri Lanka by Dakota Weather Consultants Oct 21, 2013
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November will likely have a pretty large temperature contrast from Northeast India to Sri Lanka. We will remain in the Neutral ENSO Phase, meaning conditions for the region should be near or possibly slightly below normal. Here is a more detailed breakdown of each category: (Surface Air High Temperatures): Northeast India will see temps in the 15-20C, while the East Coast will see temps in the 20-25C, followed by temps in the 25-30C range over Southeast India and into Sri Lanka. (Surface Air Low Temperatures): Northeast India will see temps in the 10-15C range while the East coast will be in the 15-20C and the Southeast and Sri Lanka area will see overnight lows around 20-25C. (Surface Precipitation): Rainfall across the region will range from 25-75mm over the Northeast section, along with the East Coast, increasing to around 75-200mm over Southeast India and into Sri Lanka. (Growing Degree Days): The Northeast region will have around 225-525GDD’s for the month, increasing to 600-750GDD’s over the East Coast, further increasing to around 825-1025GDD’s. (Rice Moisture Content): The northeast and also the East coast of India will see lower amounts of rainfall during the month, while the Southern portion should see ample amounts of moisture. (Impact Analysis ): There will be a high chance of having to have alternative irrigation systems in place over the Northeast and most of the East Coast, while the Sothern portion should have ample amounts of rainfall chance and precipitation. *Please use this assessment with caution, when making decisions. “This product is created by the Climo-Dome Model that is unique to Dakota Weather Consultants and only available through Dakota Weather Consultants.” Dakota Weather Consultants Long Range Forecast visit our site for more in depth-analysis and all the long range weather services we provide. www.dakotaweatherconsultants.com Tags: weather
Sri Lanka 2012-13 Maha Rice Crop Production Grows to 2.85 Million Tons; Up 4.8% from Last Year
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Oct 21, 2013
Paddy rice production of Sri Lanka’s 2012-13 Maha rice crop is expected to grow to around 2.85 million tons, up about 4.8% from around 2.72 million tons paddy rice production in 2011-12 Maha rice season, according to the Census and Statistics Department.The Department says that rice area in the Maha season 2012-13 stood at around 779,635 hectares, up about 11% compared to the previous Maha Season. The average yield is estimated at 4.28 tons per hectare for this season, with the highest average yield of 6.57 tons per hectare seen in the Hambantota district.The Maha rice crop season runs from September to March and accounts for about 60 – 65% of Sri Lanka’s annual rice production. According to the USDA, Sri Lanka’s total annual rice production in 2012-13 is estimated at around 2.76 million tons against a consumption of around 2.7 – 2.8 million tons. Total rice acreage in the country stands at around 1.17 million hectares. Tags: Sri Lanka rice production
Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Mexico Peso Down 0.9% Oct 21, 2013
U.S. dollar index was up +0.04% from the open today, when it traded at 79.686 at the close. Euro was -0.07% lower today by the close, trading around 1.3677 by end of day, after trading between an intraday high of 1.3691 and low of 1.3651. Markets were pretty quiet today ahead of the U.S. employment data due out tomorrow. Thai baht was weaker -0.26%, trading at 31.140 at the close of business. Indian rupee was weaker -0.42% trading at 61.5212. Brazilian real was -0.44% weaker than the open at today’s close, when it ended at 2.1796 reais per dollar. Pakistan rupee was -0.22% weaker at the close, trading at 106.3350. Vietnamese dong was +0.04% stronger at 21108. Mexican peso was -0.94% weaker today, when it traded at 12.9800 pesos per dollar by the close of business today. Chinese yuan was stronger +0.04% at 6.0943. Argentine peso was -0.12% weaker at 5.8582 pesos per dollar. Tags: foreign exchange rates
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U.S. Rice Industry Split on Controversial Court Ruling on Rice Research Fees Oct 21, 2013
Last week, the Supreme Court of Louisiana ruled that “Rice Statutes” levied since 1992 are unconstitutional, handing a “victory” to those rice farmers in Louisiana who have argued that the mandatory fees paid by them under the “Rice Statues” for rice research and promotion were unfair and that the program was fraught with problems.Not everybody was happy. One participant in the U.S. rice industry told Oryza that if rice farmers in Louisiana are allowed to opt out of the payments for research, it will less money for research and promotion which will be damaging to the U.S. rice industry in long-term.Rice farmers who challenged the “Rice Statutes” in the Louisiana Supreme Court said they are not opposed to the fees but just want better control of how these funds should be spent.A large rice farmer in the area told Oryza that the fight is really between the U.S. Rice Federation (Federation) and the U.S. Rice Producers Association (RPA), and that the farmers who went to the Court to overturn the “Rice Statutes” simply want to funnel the research and promotion funds to RPA, instead of these funds going to Federation as is currently the case. A press release issued by RPA quickly got to the bottom of the issue, noting: “Many of the producers involved in the suit would prefer to see their dollars support a producer only organization such as the US Rice Producers Association (USRPA), an affiliate of LIRPA which does not include mills or processors.”A large land holder in Arkansas told Oryza that enmity between RPA and Federation is not a good thing for the rice sector as a whole especially when considering that the reduced crop size will mean less funds available for research and promotion as it is, funds which are badly needed to continue to improve quality of U.S. rice to keep its status as a premier rice in the global rice industry. Tags: Rice research
USDA Post Lowers Vietnam 2012-13 Rice Export Estimate to 7.2 Million Tons Oct 21, 2013
Vietnam’s rice exports in MY 2012-13 (January – December) are expected to decline to around 7.2 million tons, according to estimates by the USDA Post in Hanoi. The Post's new estimates are down about 3% from USDA official estimates of around 7.4 million tons, and down about 6% from around 7.7 million tons exported in the previous year.The Post says that Vietnam is facing strong competition from India, Thailand, Pakistan and Myanmar in the African and China market this year. It also says that China, the biggest Vietnamese rice buyer earlier this marketing year, has recently halted its purchase of Vietnamese rice and the Chinese government is restricting the issuance of import quotas to rice importers. Local sources in Thailand say that China may buy around one million tons of rice annually from Thailand after Thai rice prices declined steadily in the last few months.
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The Post also lowered Vietnam’s rice exports forecast of MY 2013-14 to 7.5 million tons, down about 4% from 7.8 million tons due to strong competition and lower demand.However, Vietnam’s rice production in MY 201213 is expected to reach around 44.32 million tons of paddy rice (about 27.7 million tons, basis milled), up about 1% from USDA official estimates of around 43.8 million tons (about 27.3 million tons, basis milled). This revision is due to an unexpected expansion of planted area of the autumn and winter rice crops in the Mekong River Delta (MRD), the Post says. Vietnam's annual domestic rice consumption stands at around 20.1 million tons. Tags: Vietnam 2013 rice exports
Vietnam Exports 5.34 Million Tons of Rice in January 1 – October 15, 2013 Vietnam has exported around 5.34 million tons rice worth about $2.3 billion (FOB) during January 1 October 15, 2013, according to the Vietnam Food Association
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(VFA). Average rice export FOB price during the period stands at around $429 per ton.Vietnam’s rice exports in October 1-15, 2013 stand at around 145,875 tons at an average price of around $424 per ton which is down about 5% from around $445 per ton in October 2012, and down about 3% from average prices of around $438 per ton in September 2013. Meanwhile, domestic paddy prices in the Mekong Delta for common stock stand at around VND 5,250 - 5,350 per kilogram (about $245 - $250 per ton, using current exchange rates).Vietnamese 5% broken domestic rice prices stand at around VND 7,050-7,150 per kilogram (about $329 - $334 per ton, using current exchange rates), and 25% broken rice prices stand at around VND 6,850-6,950 per kilogram (about $320 - $324 per ton, using current exchange rates). Tags: Vietnam rice exports 2013, Vietnam Food Association (VFA)
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Attempt to Rebound from Friday’s Losses; Other Grains Seen Slightly Lower Overnight Oct 21, 2013
Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery are currently paused 7.5 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) higher at $15.365 per cwt (about $339 per ton) as of 8:30am Chicago time. The other grains are seen mostly lower this morning ahead of floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently seen about 0.1% higher, wheat is seen about 0.7% lower, and corn is paused about 0.2% lower.U.S. stock index futures pointed to a mixed open on Monday, as markets weighed better-than-expected third-quarter earnings against budget uncertainty. Dow and S&P 500 futures were down, while Nasdaq futures moved fractionally higher. On the economic front, existing home sales for September will be reported at 10 am ET. Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a 5.30 million units at an annual rate versus 5.48 million in August. Investors will be focused on economic reports that were delayed due to the 16-day government shutdown. September non-farm payrolls report will be released on Tuesday. U.S. stock index futures are currently trading about 0.1% higher, gold is currently trading about 0.3% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 0.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.2% higher at 8:30am Chicago time. Tags: chicago rough rice futures
Asia Rice Quotes Mixed Today Oct 21, 2013
Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to about $435 - $445 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice, 100% broken rice and Jasmine rice by about $5 - $10 per ton. Indian rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and parboiled rice by about
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$5 per ton and $15 per ton respectively. Pakistan rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton and increased their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton. 5% Broken Rice Thai 5% rice is quoted around $405 - $415 per ton, about a $5 per ton premium over Viet 5% rice (of summerautumn crop 2013) shown around $400 - $410 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. Indian 5% rice is quoted around $410 - $420 per ton, down about $5 per ton from Friday, and about a $35 per ton premium over Pak 5% rice (of new crop) quoted around $375 - $385 per ton, down about $5 per ton from Friday. 25% Broken Rice Thai 25% rice is quoted about $390 - $400 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium over Viet 25% rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $370 - $380 per ton. Indian 25% rice is quoted about $370 - $380 per ton, about a $35 per ton premium over Pak 25% rice (of new crop) quoted around $335 - $345 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thai parboiled rice is quoted around $435 - $445 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $390 - $400 per ton, down about $15 per ton from Friday and about a $30 per ton discount to Pak parboiled rice (of new crop) last quoted around $420 - $430 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thai broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $10 per ton premium over Viet broken rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $360 - $370 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted about $310 - $320 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pak broken sortexed rice (of new crop) quoted around $325 - $335 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. Tags: Asia rice quotes, Thailand rice quotes, India rice quotes, Pakistan rice quotes, Vietnam rice quotes
Oryza Quick Glance at World News Oct 21, 2013
Financial Times *U.S. President Barack Obama will declare that the computer troubles plaguing his flagship healthcare reform are unacceptable on Monday as his administration launches an urgent “tech surge” to fix them. *AT&T has reached a multibillion-dollar sale and leaseback deal under which it will lease the rights to about 9,100 of its wireless network towers to Crown Castle International and sell another 600 towers to the tower operator. *Germany’s opposition Social Democrats cleared the way on Sunday for weeks of hard bargaining on a coalition agreement with Chancellor Angela Merkel, setting out a string of minimum demands for a deal. They included a statutory minimum wage, a financial transaction tax, new rules to give immigrants dual citizenship and an investment drive in transport and schools to boost economic growth. However, there was no mention of tax increases for top earners, a central SPD election demand.
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*Ukraine’s government is weeks away from signing a shale gas production-sharing agreement with Chevron, of the U.S., and bringing in Italy’s Eni and France’s EDF as partners for a Black Sea hydrocarbon exploration project. *French President François Hollande’s attempt to calm a bitter controversy over illegal immigration has instead triggered a wave of cross-party criticism that threatens to prolong the most serious internal crisis to engulf his government for months. *The political career of Luxembourg’s premier Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU’s longest-standing prime minister, was on the line on Sunday night after his conservative party suffered significant losses in the country’s national elections. Projections based on actual votes showed that the Christian Social People’s (CSV) party emerged as the largest winner, with 23 out of 60 seats – a result that will give Mr Juncker the first choice to form a coalition government. *The U.K. government will announce on Monday that it will guarantee the French utility EDF a price of £89.50 per megawatt hour for electricity produced at Hinkley Point C in Somerset. *Brussels is standing its ground against Mario Draghi over the EU curbs on bank bailouts, despite the ECB president warning that overzealous haircuts of bank bondholders could destroy confidence. Wall Street Journal*Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a surprise last-minute reversal, appointed the Bank of Israel's interim chief as its next governor on Sunday after a months long process. *Brazil plans to sell one of the world's largest offshore oil discoveries, the Libra field, on Monday at an auction expected to bring hundreds of many billions of dollars into government coffers, but which is drawing popular opposition because of the participation of foreign oil companies in the project. *Japan posted a trade deficit of about ¥932.1 billion ($9.5 billion) in September for a 15th straight month, the longest stretch on record, pointing to an apparent structural change in the economy and uncertainties about global growth. *J.P. Morgan Chase reached a tentative deal this weekend to pay $13 billion to end a number of civil investigations into its sale of mortgage securities before the 2008 financial crisis, but a separate and potentially more serious criminal probe into the bank and its executives will continue. *India is likely to have the highest number of people living in poverty by 2030 and among the greatest exposure to extreme weather and natural disasters, but it is rare among developing nations facing climate hazards, because its national government has the capacity to manage disaster risk, according to a report published this week. *A suicide bomber slammed his explosive-laden car Sunday night into a busy cafe in Iraq's capital, part of a day of violence across the country that killed 45 people, authorities said. *Despite a prolonged slide in domestic sugar prices, U.S. candy makers are expanding production in other countries as federal price supports and a global glut of the sweet stuff give an ever-greater advantage to foreign rivals. A 50% drop in U.S. sugar prices in the last two years has not been enough to eliminate problems from a longtime price gap between domestic and foreign sugar. New York Times*Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg will be honored on Monday as the first recipient of a $1 million award that organizers are calling the “Jewish Nobel Prize.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel will present the award, named the Genesis Prize, to him at a ceremony in Jerusalem in May. The award, established by a charity
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founded by Russian Jewish billionaires, aims to honor “exceptional people whose values and achievements will inspire the next generations of Jews.” *Radiation cleanup in some of the most contaminated towns around Fukushima's nuclear power plant in Japan is far behind schedule, so residents will have to wait a few more years before returning. Environment Ministry officials said Monday that they are revising the cleanup schedule for six municipalities. The original plan called for completing decontamination by next March. *Schools were to stay closed on Mexico's southern Pacific coast on Monday as a region still reeling from record flooding battened down the hatches against the advance of a hurricane, Raymond, blowing winds of over 100 mph. *Franco-Dutch airline Air France-KLM is considering diluting its stake in struggling Italian carrier Alitalia if a deeper restructuring fails to take place, French newspaper Les Echos reported on Monday. *Despite uncertainty in Washington and rising oil prices and interest rates, companies are upbeat on the prospects for economic growth in the next year, according to a quarterly survey of U.S. business economists. *China's cabinet called for greater effort in revamping the economy because a recovery is not yet solid, seeking quicker progress on restructuring industry and increasing consumption while guarding against risk and protecting people's livelihoods. In a statement issued on Sunday the State Council reiterated that, China could meet its economic targets for this year, including growth of 7.5%, though the domestic and international situation remains complex. Tags: World news
Oryza Global Rice Quotes October 21st, 2013 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 415-425 Vietnam 5% broken 400-410 ↑ India 5% broken 410-420 ↓ Pakistan 5% broken 375-385 ↓ Cambodia 5% broken 445-455 ↔ U.S. 4% broken 595-605 ↔ Uruguay 5% broken 615-625 ↔ Argentina 5% broken 615-625 ↔ Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 390-400 ↔ Vietnam 25% broken 370-380 ↔ Pakistan 25% broken 335-345 ↔ Cambodia 25% broken 415-425 India 25% broken 370-380 ↔ U.S. 15% broken 575-585 ↔ Long grain parboiled rice
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Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 435-445 Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 420-430 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 390-400 U.S. parboiled 4% broken 660-670 ↔ Brazil parboiled 5% broken 580-590 ↔ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 1080-1090 ↔ Vietnam Jasmine 545-555 ↑ India basmati 2% broken 1515 -1525 ↔ Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Cambodia Pkha Malis 925-935 ↔ Brokens Thailand A1 Super 370-380 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 360-370 ↑ Pakistan 100% broken stxd 325-335 ↑ Cambodia A1 Super 370-380 ↔ India 100% Broken stxd 310-320 ↔ Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔ U.S. pet food 370-380 ↔ Brazil half grain 345-355 ↔ Medium grain milled U.S. Calrose 4% broken 620-630 ↔ Egypt medium grain 6% NQ ↔
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All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
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